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| #985998 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 12.Oct.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that westerly shear is increasing over Melissa, and the low-level center is now partly exposed at the western edge of the central convective mass. However, this has not yet resulted in a significant decrease in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity thus remains 45 kt. There have been significant changes to the initial 12-ft seas radii for this advisory based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. The initial motion is now 080/12. Melissa should be steered generally eastward to east-northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies until the system is absorbed by a frontal zone after 72 h. There is little change to either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the consensus models. Westerly shear should continue to increase over Melissa during the next three days. In addition, after passing over a patch or eddy of warm water associated with the Gulf Stream on Sunday, the storm should encounter much colder water. This combination should cause Melissa to weaken, and it is expected to become a remnant low after 24 h. While the forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous forecast, the new intensity forecast is tweaked slightly to keep Melissa a tropical storm through 24 h based on the expected passage over the warm water eddy. Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Key Messages: 1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 38.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 39.2N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 40.2N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 41.1N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 42.0N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z 42.2N 35.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
