Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #98609 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 19.Jul.2006) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 DESPITE REPEATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THROUGH 00Z INDICATED THAT BERYL HAD NOT STRENGTHENED ANY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SHIP AND AIRCRAFT DATA DO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED A BIT. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 06Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/8. A NUMBER OF MODELS FROM EARLIER TODAY...INCLUDING THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND MOST PROMINENTLY THE GFDL...WERE FORECASTING A NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT DID NOT OCCUR AND THEREFORE AT 00Z WERE NEARLY A DEGREE TO THE LEFT OF THE ACTUAL POSITION. STILL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY A TEMPORARY LEFTWARD JOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... BERYL IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE FEELING THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ANY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ADJUSTED FOR INITIAL POSITION ERROR...KEEP THE CENTER OF BERYL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WESTERLIES. THE GFDL IS THE PRIMARY OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THERE IS TIME FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW BERYL WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...A SHARP 200 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY THE TIME BERYL MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...I WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE WEAKENING. FURTHER...THE REVERSAL IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESTRICT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS IT PASSES. CONSEQUENTLY...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHORT-FUSED TROPICAL STORM WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN THE MORNING. REGARDING THE PRONUNCIATION OF BERYL...A REVIEW OF SEVERAL DICTIONARIES SHOWS THAT BOTH BER'-IL AND BURL ARE ACCEPTED PRONUNCIATIONS...AND IN FACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTIVE SPECIFIES THE FORMER...TWO SYLLABLE...PRONUNCIATION. THE ONLY BERYL I PERSONALLY KNOW ALSO PRONOUNCES IT BER'-IL. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY CONFUSION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 37.0N 73.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 38.1N 72.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 41.5N 68.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0000Z 43.7N 64.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE |
