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| #986092 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 13.Oct.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 After an earlier flare-up of convection, thunderstorm activity has decreased significantly in both coverage and intensity during the past 4 hours. Convection is now limited to a small area in the northeastern quadrant, and the inner-core region is becoming dominated by stable cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on 1400Z ASCAT wind data showing 35-36 kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle and subsequent erosion of the convective pattern. Melissa continues to gradually accelerate east-northeastward and the initial motion estimate is now 075/16 kt. An additional increase in forward speed, in conjunction with a turn toward the east, is expected by tonight and then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near an average of the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. The unfavorable combination of westerly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt and SSTs less than 24 deg C is expected to continue the current weakening trend, with Melissa becoming a remnant low by Monday morning. The cyclone is forecast to merge or interact with a larger extratropical low by Wednesday and dissipate. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 39.9N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 40.5N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/1800Z 41.4N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 41.9N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 41.7N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
