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| #986378 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 15.Oct.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 The tropical depression located near the Cabo Verde Islands has become less organized over the past 6 hours. An ASCAT-A overpass at 2154 UTC showed that the depression still had a closed and well-defined center, but the strongest winds were only 20-25 kt. A subsequent ASCAT-B pass about 1 hour later showed slightly higher winds but an elongated circulation. Furthermore, deep convection is limited to a small area of showers located nearly 100 n mi to the east of the depression`s center. If its convection continues to decrease, the system could become a remnant low later today. Alternatively, if its circulation continues to become elongated, it could soon open into a trough and dissipate. Either way, it seems unlikely that the depression will remain a tropical cyclone for long, and this shown by all of the models and the official forecast. The depression has made a westward jog since the last advisory, but a longer-term motion estimate is 300/09 kt. The westward jog resulted in a substantial westward shift in the official forecast track, but the system is still expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or two until it dissipates. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the main source of uncertainty is just how quickly the system will open into a trough. The latest ECMWF deterministic forecast and few of its ensemble members indicate that the cyclone could regenerate later this week. However, most other models do not forecast regeneration and the uncertainty is too high to justify explicitly showing this in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.8N 23.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.7N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.6N 25.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 19.6N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 20.8N 29.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
