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| #987734 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 26.Oct.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident. Since the system continues to have an area of deep convection concentrated near the center, it should still be classified as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, in general agreement with the most recent estimate from TAFB, and pending a new scatterometer overpass. Pablo is embedded within a much larger cyclonic circulation that is also producing gale-force winds well to the north and northwest of the center. The tropical storm is moving a little south of east at around 8 kt. A turn toward the northeast and north is expected over the next couple of days as Pablo moves around the periphery of a large deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one but slightly slower than the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. However, by 36 hours the cyclone will be passing over waters of 18 deg C or colder. This should result in the system becoming an extratropical low around that time. In 2-3 days, the global models show the post-tropical low merging with a larger low over the north Atlantic. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 35.3N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 36.6N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 39.5N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0600Z 45.3N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0600Z 47.5N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
