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| #987832 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 26.Oct.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo passed just to the southeast of Santa Maria island in the eastern Azores earlier this evening and is now accelerating away from the islands. A pair of ASCAT passes around 2100-2200 UTC showed that Pablo was stronger than previously estimated, with maximum winds above 50 kt. The latest SATCON estimate also supports a higher intensity of 55 kt, so that is the value used for this advisory. Pablo`s higher intensity is not necessarily an indication of further intensification, and its cloud pattern has actually slightly degraded since earlier today. The NHC forecast is based primarily on the dynamical model consensus, and nearly all of those models indicate that Pablo will maintain its strength overnight and then gradually weaken on Sunday and Monday. Pablo`s upper-air environment is unusually cold, and this will likely allow it to maintain convection for longer than typically expected, given that the SHIPS SST analysis is already down to 22 deg C. Much colder waters are ahead, and Pablo is still forecast to become post-tropical within 36 h, though it is worth noting that a few dynamical models indicate it could try to maintain its tropical structure over very cold waters a little bit longer. The tropical storm has moved to the right of and faster than the previous forecast track and the initial motion estimate is 050/25 kt. Pablo should curve counter-clockwise around the eastern side of the larger extratropical low it is embedded within during the next couple of days. Most of the guidance is farther to the right than it was before and the NHC forecast is therefore also shifted substantially in that direction, but not as far as the multi-model consensus. Further adjustments in the track forecast may be required if current model trends continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 38.2N 22.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 41.0N 20.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 44.1N 19.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 46.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/0000Z 47.1N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
