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| #987864 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 27.Oct.2019) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Pablo has maintained a small mid-level eye feature for at least the past 18 hours, and the eye has also been evident in infrared imagery for the past 6 hours. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was T3.0, which was held down due to constraints even though the eye pattern supports an intensity of 65 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and SATCON intensity estimates are T4.4/75 kt and 64 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of the TAFB and UW-CIMSS values, along with the 5- to 8-nmi-diameter eye, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt, which could be conservative due to the the cyclone`s relatively fast forward speed. Pablo has continued to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is now 045/35 kt. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement that during the next 48 hours, Pablo should slow down while making a counter-clockwise track around the northeastern periphery of the larger extratropical low that the small cyclone is embedded within. The tightly packed guidance suite has shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast track has been adjusted in that direction, close to the various consensus models. Pablo is currently located over 20 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with colder water near 15 deg C ahead of the cyclone. Model forecast soundings indicate that mid- and upper-level temperatures will be warming, and when combined with the cooler SSTs, will result in stabilization of the troposphere. This will cause convection to steadily weaken and erode by 12 h, resulting in Pablo degenerating into a post-tropical extratropical low pressure system in 24 h, if not sooner. The small cyclone is forecast to dissipate or become absorbed by the larger parent extratropical low in the 48-72 h forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 40.7N 20.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 43.8N 17.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 46.2N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 28/1800Z 46.9N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/0600Z 48.3N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
