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| #988348 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 30.Oct.2019) TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 The cloud pattern has not changed very much during the past few hours and still consists primarily of a convective band that wraps around the center of circulation of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT data reveal that the cyclone has a well-defined circulation with 40-kt winds, but these strong winds are confined to the southern semicircle. Most of the guidance indicates that Rebekah will change very little in intensity during the next 24 hours, and after that time, the combination of cold waters and strong upper-level winds should result in the cyclone becoming extratropical while weakening. Most of the global models dissipate the cyclone in 48 hours or sooner, and so does the NHC forecast. As indicated in the previous advisory, Rebekah is rotating around a larger non-tropical low pressure system, and the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the east or 080 degrees at 15 kt. However, a turn to the east-northeast is possible tonight and early Thursday, before Rebekah becomes even more embedded within the flow behind a mid-level trough. The cyclone should then turn toward the east-southeast until it dissipates later this week. Since the track guidance is better agreement tonight, the confidence in the track prediction is a little higher. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is not very different from the previous one. Since Rebekah is not currently forecast to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 38.5N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 40.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 39.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 38.0N 22.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
