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| #9905 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 24.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004 KARL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CORE OF REASONABLY COLD CONVECTION...SO WE CANNOT QUITE DECLARE KARL EXTRATROPICAL YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. KARL WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS AND ANY BAROCLINIC INFLUX OF ENERGY SHOULD BE OVER NOW...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KARL LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/35...AS KARL IS WHIPPING AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. KARL SHOULD DISENGAGE FROM THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT DOES SO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 44.4N 40.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 48.9N 39.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/1200Z 53.7N 36.1W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 26/0000Z 58.7N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/1200Z 62.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
