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| #9932 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 24.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LISA REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 18Z DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT 30 KT AND LISA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK TODAY... THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND A TRACK OF 285/9 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTANT IN FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY. IN THE LONGER RANGE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LISA WILL NOT GET PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED WESTWARD BUT REMAINS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS AND LEANS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AS LISA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES LISA A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.4N 44.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 14.9N 45.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 46.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.8N 47.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 19.7N 47.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 23.8N 47.8W 60 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 47.8W 60 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 31.0N 47.8W 60 KT |
