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| #9970 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 24.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004 ...CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE SUWANEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE HURRICANE SITUATION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES..220 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JEANNE HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 74.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
