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| #9974 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 24.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LISA REMAINS DISPLACED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB...TAFB IS 35 KT BASED ON A POSITION CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER LISA. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN LEVELS OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS. INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE UKMET ARE NOW INDICATING A SUBTLE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAY 4 AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE NOGAPS...GFDL...UKMET AND THE GFS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 14.3N 44.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 45.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 46.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 18.2N 47.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.0N 47.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 48.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 48.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 30.0N 48.0W 60 KT |
