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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1243156 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1044 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds into the region today, before sliding offshore late today through late week. Continued dry and very pleasant conditions to the region are expected with below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - After a cool start, decreasing clouds and continued mild/comfortable and dry today. Highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to near 60. Latest analysis reveals ~1026 mb sfc high pressure centered just west of the local area. Aloft, as another upper low near James Bay early this morning drops into northern New England. The transient surface high builds overhead this morning, then slides toward the coast this afternoon. Remaining clouds clear out for the afternoon in subsidence behind the departing shortwave. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Mixing will not quite be as efficient today, but still expect to mix Td values back down into the upper 40s to low 50s inland, low to mid 50s along the coast. This should yield minimum RH values in the 30-40% range for most of the area away from the coast. Same setup tonight, with another weak perturbation rotating through late and bringing some additional clouds overnight. Light winds turn around to the S-SW tonight, which along with the clouds should bring a milder, though still quite comfortable night. Early morning lows in the mid 50s inland, upper 50s to mid 60s central and east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Dry, comfortable weather with low humidity and below average temps are expected Friday/Friday night. Sfc high pressure slides offshore Friday, as the upper trough remains in place, with return flow allowing for dewpoints to recover back into the mid 50s to around 60, still quite comfortable by late August standards. All-around pleasant weather continues to wrap up the work week, with highs in low- mid 80s under a mainly sunny sky. Gradual moderation trend continues Fri night with lows mainly in the upper 50s well inland, with low to mid 60s for most. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Pleasant weather persists for the late week period into the upcoming holiday weekend. - Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a mainly dry weather pattern also to persist into the Labor Day holiday. At the surface, the high pressure sets up just offshore to begin the weekend. The previously referenced upper level trough settling across New England will send a reinforcing cold front toward the area that drops across the local area early Saturday. The resultant cool air advection will help the provide an additional influx of cooler/drier air over the holiday weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist through at least early Sunday, with highs Sat through Tues likely to remain several degrees below normal. Look for highs remaining in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows should generally be in the mid 50s inland, again cooler in typically cooler sheltered/rural locales, with upper 50s to low 60s in the east. At this time, the outlook looks to remain dry and pleasant for Labor Day. A weak low will slide across the Gulf Coast this weekend, remaining well south of the area. Meanwhile, another cool high slides over the local area from the Ohio Valley through Labor Day/Monday night. There is a very low end chance for a few showers across NC Monday afternoon in association with some weak shortwave energy embedded within the East Coast trough, but chances remain low enough to hold out at this time, as even the more aggressive ECMWF/EPS solutions favor keeping the local area dry into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 555 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z/28 TAF period, with continued dry conditions expected. Partly to mostly cloudy to start the day, with clouds to will spread east to PHF/SBY through sunrise. Clearing out by mid-morning with no issues with flight categories expected, as CIGs look to remain at or above FL070. Light and variable winds early this morning become S/SW 5-10 kts from mid to late morning through the afternoon. At ORF and PHF, the afternoon sea breeze will likely allow winds to become more SSE. Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather through at least Saturday. Light and variable winds are expected tonight through Fri morning, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds turn onshore later Friday into the weekend, as high pressure slides off the mid-Atlantic coast. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... - A weak surface trough approaches from the northwest late tonight and a cold front crosses the waters Friday into Saturday. - An area of low pressure likely forms offshore next week, potentially bringing enhanced NE winds and building seas. 1022mb high pressure is noted over the region early this morning. Winds are generally W 5-10 kt with waves around 1 foot and seas 2 ft. High pressure will dominate the local weather today but a weak shortwave trough aloft will sharpen a surface trough, mainly north of the local waters. The result will be a modest increase in SSW winds this evening into tonight across the northern Ches Bay and coastal waters. Latest guidance keeps sustained winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through roughly midnight tonight before the gradient relaxes and winds decrease. Sub-SCA W and SW flow expected for much of Friday before swinging around to the S and SSE ahead of an approaching cold front Friday evening. The front will cross the waters early Saturday with winds becoming N 10-15 kt by sunrise. Cold/dry advection look rather muted with this frontal passage so not expecting winds to get into SCA territory but will continue to watch this period in subsequent forecasts. High pressure builds in for the weekend. 00z guidance is less enthused regarding coastal low development early next week than previous forecast cycles. It does appear that a coastal low will form but there is significant disagreement with respect to the timing, strength, and placement of this feature in the models. If onshore flow is able to develop and persist next week, winds and seas will build, especially near and south of VA Beach where NE winds and resultant seas tend to overperform vs guidance. Low rip risk is forecast at all area beaches today and Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243138 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 556 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds into the region today, before sliding offshore late today through late week. Continued dry and very pleasant conditions to the region are expected with below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - After a cool start, decreasing clouds and continued mild/comfortable and dry today. Highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to near 60. Latest analysis reveals ~1026 mb sfc high pressure centered just west of the local area. Aloft, as another upper low near James Bay early this morning drops into northern New England, another upper disturbance rotates through the local area at the base of the upper trough. That feature is bringing some increasing mid to high clouds across the piedmont early this morning. As clouds thicken, temperatures have stabilized or even risen slightly over the past few hours along/west of I-95. Available CAMs each showing clouds scatter out or thin toward sunrise inland, with temperatures falling back into the low to mid 50s. Meanwhile, farther east, increasing clouds will bring slightly milder low temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. The transient surface high builds overhead this morning, then slides toward the coast this afternoon. Clouds once again clear out for the afternoon in subsidence behind the departing shortwave. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Mixing will not quite be as efficient today, but still expect to mix Td values back down into the upper 40s to low 50s inland, low to mid 50s along the coast. This should yield minimum RH values in the 30-40% range for most of the area away from the coast. Same setup tonight, with another weak perturbation rotating through late and bringing some additional clouds overnight. Light winds turn around to the S-SW tonight, which along with the clouds should bring a milder, though still quite comfortable night. Early morning lows in the mid 50s inland, upper 50s to mid 60s central and east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Dry, comfortable weather with low humidity and below average temps are expected Friday/Friday night. Sfc high pressure slides offshore Friday, as the upper trough remains in place, with return flow allowing for dewpoints to recover back into the mid 50s to around 60, still quite comfortable by late August standards. All-around pleasant weather continues to wrap up the work week, with highs in low- mid 80s under a mainly sunny sky. Gradual moderation trend continues Fri night with lows mainly in the upper 50s well inland, with low to mid 60s for most. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Pleasant weather persists for the late week period into the upcoming holiday weekend. - Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a mainly dry weather pattern also to persist into the Labor Day holiday. At the surface, the high pressure sets up just offshore to begin the weekend. The previously referenced upper level trough settling across New England will send a reinforcing cold front toward the area that drops across the local area early Saturday. The resultant cool air advection will help the provide an additional influx of cooler/drier air over the holiday weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist through at least early Sunday, with highs Sat through Tues likely to remain several degrees below normal. Look for highs remaining in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows should generally be in the mid 50s inland, again cooler in typically cooler sheltered/rural locales, with upper 50s to low 60s in the east. At this time, the outlook looks to remain dry and pleasant for Labor Day. A weak low will slide across the Gulf Coast this weekend, remaining well south of the area. Meanwhile, another cool high slides over the local area from the Ohio Valley through Labor Day/Monday night. There is a very low end chance for a few showers across NC Monday afternoon in association with some weak shortwave energy embedded within the East Coast trough, but chances remain low enough to hold out at this time, as even the more aggressive ECMWF/EPS solutions favor keeping the local area dry into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 555 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z/28 TAF period, with continued dry conditions expected. Partly to mostly cloudy to start the day, with clouds to will spread east to PHF/SBY through sunrise. Clearing out by mid-morning with no issues with flight categories expected, as CIGs look to remain at or above FL070. Light and variable winds early this morning become S/SW 5-10 kts from mid to late morning through the afternoon. At ORF and PHF, the afternoon sea breeze will likely allow winds to become more SSE. Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather through at least Saturday. Light and variable winds are expected tonight through Fri morning, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds turn onshore later Friday into the weekend, as high pressure slides off the mid-Atlantic coast. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... - A weak surface trough approaches from the northwest late tonight and a cold front crosses the waters Friday into Saturday. - An area of low pressure likely forms offshore next week, potentially bringing enhanced NE winds and building seas. 1022mb high pressure is noted over the region early this morning. Winds are generally W 5-10 kt with waves around 1 foot and seas 2 ft. High pressure will dominate the local weather today but a weak shortwave trough aloft will sharpen a surface trough, mainly north of the local waters. The result will be a modest increase in SSW winds this evening into tonight across the northern Ches Bay and coastal waters. Latest guidance keeps sustained winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through roughly midnight tonight before the gradient relaxes and winds decrease. Sub-SCA W and SW flow expected for much of Friday before swinging around to the S and SSE ahead of an approaching cold front Friday evening. The front will cross the waters early Saturday with winds becoming N 10-15 kt by sunrise. Cold/dry advection look rather muted with this frontal passage so not expecting winds to get into SCA territory but will continue to watch this period in subsequent forecasts. High pressure builds in for the weekend. 00z guidance is less enthused regarding coastal low development early next week than previous forecast cycles. It does appear that a coastal low will form but there is significant disagreement with respect to the timing, strength, and placement of this feature in the models. If onshore flow is able to develop and persist next week, winds and seas will build, especially near and south of VA Beach where NE winds and resultant seas tend to overperform vs guidance. Low rip risk is forecast at all area beaches today and Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243129 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 253 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds into the region today, before sliding offshore late today through late week. Continued dry and very pleasant conditions to the region are expected with below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - After a cool start, decreasing clouds and continued mild/comfortable and dry today. Highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to near 60. Latest analysis reveals ~1026 mb sfc high pressure centered just west of the local area. Aloft, as another upper low near James Bay early this morning drops into northern New England, another upper disturbance rotates through the local area at the base of the upper trough. That feature is bringing some increasing mid to high clouds across the piedmont early this morning. As clouds thicken, temperatures have stabilized or even risen slightly over the past few hours along/west of I-95. Available CAMs each showing clouds scatter out or thin toward sunrise inland, with temperatures falling back into the low to mid 50s. Meanwhile, farther east, increasing clouds will bring slightly milder low temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. The transient surface high builds overhead this morning, then slides toward the coast this afternoon. Clouds once again clear out for the afternoon in subsidence behind the departing shortwave. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Mixing will not quite be as efficient today, but still expect to mix Td values back down into the upper 40s to low 50s inland, low to mid 50s along the coast. This should yield minimum RH values in the 30-40% range for most of the area away from the coast. Same setup tonight, with another weak perturbation rotating through late and bringing some additional clouds overnight. Light winds turn around to the S-SW tonight, which along with the clouds should bring a milder, though still quite comfortable night. Early morning lows in the mid 50s inland, upper 50s to mid 60s central and east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Dry, comfortable weather with low humidity and below average temps are expected Friday/Friday night. Sfc high pressure slides offshore Friday, as the upper trough remains in place, with return flow allowing for dewpoints to recover back into the mid 50s to around 60, still quite comfortable by late August standards. All-around pleasant weather continues to wrap up the work week, with highs in low- mid 80s under a mainly sunny sky. Gradual moderation trend continues Fri night with lows mainly in the upper 50s well inland, with low to mid 60s for most. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Pleasant weather persists for the late week period into the upcoming holiday weekend. - Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a mainly dry weather pattern also to persist into the Labor Day holiday. At the surface, the high pressure sets up just offshore to begin the weekend. The previously referenced upper level trough settling across New England will send a reinforcing cold front toward the area that drops across the local area early Saturday. The resultant cool air advection will help the provide an additional influx of cooler/drier air over the holiday weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist through at least early Sunday, with highs Sat through Tues likely to remain several degrees below normal. Look for highs remaining in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows should generally be in the mid 50s inland, again cooler in typically cooler sheltered/rural locales, with upper 50s to low 60s in the east. At this time, the outlook looks to remain dry and pleasant for Labor Day. A weak low will slide across the Gulf Coast this weekend, remaining well south of the area. Meanwhile, another cool high slides over the local area from the Ohio Valley through Labor Day/Monday night. There is a very low end chance for a few showers across NC Monday afternoon in association with some weak shortwave energy embedded within the East Coast trough, but chances remain low enough to hold out at this time, as even the more aggressive ECMWF/EPS solutions favor keeping the local area dry into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with rain-free conditions expected. Cloud cover continues to increase at RIC early this morning, and will spread east to PHF/SBY through sunrise. No issues with flight categories expected, as CIGs look to remain at or above FL070. Light and variable winds early this morning become S/SW 5-10 kts from mid to late morning through the afternoon. At ORF and PHF, the afternoon sea breeze will likely allow winds to become more SSE. Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather through at least Saturday. Light and variable winds are expected tonight through Fri morning, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds turn onshore later Friday into the weekend, as high pressure slides off the mid-Atlantic coast. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Thursday... - A weak surface trough approaches from the northwest late tonight and a cold front crosses the waters Friday into Saturday. - An area of low pressure likely forms offshore next week, potentially bringing enhanced NE winds and building seas. 1022mb high pressure is noted over the region early this morning. Winds are generally W 5-10 kt with waves around 1 foot and seas 2 ft. High pressure will dominate the local weather today but a weak shortwave trough aloft will sharpen a surface trough, mainly north of the local waters. The result will be a modest increase in SSW winds this evening into tonight across the northern Ches Bay and coastal waters. Latest guidance keeps sustained winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through roughly midnight tonight before the gradient relaxes and winds decrease. Sub-SCA W and SW flow expected for much of Friday before swinging around to the S and SSE ahead of an approaching cold front Friday evening. The front will cross the waters early Saturday with winds becoming N 10-15 kt by sunrise. Cold/dry advection look rather muted with this frontal passage so not expecting winds to get into SCA territory but will continue to watch this period in subsequent forecasts. High pressure builds in for the weekend. 00z guidance is less enthused regarding coastal low development early next week than previous forecast cycles. It does appear that a coastal low will form but there is significant disagreement with respect to the timing, strength, and placement of this feature in the models. If onshore flow is able to develop and persist next week, winds and seas will build, especially near and south of VA Beach where NE winds and resultant seas tend to overperform vs guidance. Low rip risk is forecast at all area beaches today and Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243125 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 151 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds into the region through midweek, bringing dry and very pleasant conditions to the region with below average temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 910 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Chilly (for August) tonight with lows in the 50s inland to low 60s at the coast. Some upper 40s will be possible Thu morning well inland. A "fall-like" August evening is ongoing across the forecast area. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast, with dew points 50s. High pressure remains dominant across the region tonight, which has resulted in light winds. With mostly clear skies to start the night coupled with these light and variable winds, conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling. Have nudged down low temperatures a few degrees to account for this, which is more in line with MOS guidance. Cloud cover will increase overnight as a weak shortwave passes through the area. As clouds thicken, the rate of cooling will slow down, though below normal temperatures are still expected. Low temperatures will range from the 50-55F across the piedmont to the upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast. It is not out of the question that a few areas well inland could briefly reach the upper 40s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Dry, comfortable weather with low humidity and below average temps are expected Thursday and Friday. Sfc high pressure slides offshore while the upper trough remains in place. Pleasant weather continues through the end of the week with highs in the around 80 on Thurs and low-mid 80s on Fri. Broken cloud cover should scatter out by the afternoon Thurs then staying mostly sunny through Friday. Lows on Thurs night will be in the mid-upper 50s W of I-95 and low 60s to the E, similar conditions Fri night though perhaps a couple degrees warmer. May see dew points creep back into the lower 60s on Fri. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Pleasant weather persists for the late week period into the upcoming holiday weekend. - Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a mainly dry weather pattern also to persist into the Labor Day Holiday. At the surface, the high pressure sets up just offshore going into the weekend. Dry weather is expected through at least Saturday night. Highs Sat through Tues are likely to be several degrees below normal, remaining in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows should generally be in the mid 50s inland, again cooler in typically cooler sheltered/rural locales, with upper 50s to low 60s in the east. Current indications are similar wx continues as we approach Labor Day, though low end rain chances may return by late in the weekend, mainly over the southern half of the area, as a series of weak perturbations continue to pivot through the lingering east coast trough. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with rain-free conditions expected. Cloud cover continues to increase at RIC early this morning, and will spread east to PHF/SBY through sunrise. No issues with flight categories expected, as CIGs look to remain at or above FL070. Light and variable winds early this morning become S/SW 5-10 kts from mid to late morning through the afternoon. At ORF and PHF, the afternoon sea breeze will likely allow winds to become more SSE. Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather through at least Saturday. Light and variable winds are expected tonight through Fri morning, as high pressure builds overhead. Winds turn onshore later Friday into the weekend, as high pressure slides off the mid-Atlantic coast. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - High pressure prevails the remainder of the week with another frontal passage late Friday into early Saturday. - A prolonged period of onshore flow is possible beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week. 1025mb high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley this aftn and extends eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Seas range from 2-3ft N, to ~3ft off the coast of VA Beach, and 3-4ft off the Currituck Outer Banks. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are approximately 1-2ft. Benign marine conditions are expected tonight into Thursday afternoon as high pressure settles over the region. Seas subside to ~2ft with waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft. High pressure slides offshore later Thursday aftn into Thursday night with the wind becoming S to SW and a modest tightening of the pressure gradient. 27/12z guidance is mixed on the strength of the wind. However, local wind probs are very low on sustained 18kt wind speeds. Therefore, the forecast will continue to show a S the SW wind of 10-15kt, with occasional gusts up to 20kt (mainly Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters) overnight Thursday night. A cold front is expected to cross the coast later Friday into early Saturday. Substantial differences in timing and evolution front exist in the model guidance, with even a hint of a weak wave of low pressure along the boundary. A brief increase in wind is possible behind the front, but guidance supports sub-SCA conditions at this time. 27/12z EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance supports seasonally strong high pressure (~ +1 st dev) moving over New England and Atlantic Canada and lagging back into the Midwest early-mid next week, with a wave of low pressure developing off the Southeast coast. This will bring the potential for a rather lengthy period of NE/onshore flow beginning late this weekend and continuing at least into early next week. Seas/waves will generally be 2-3ft/1- 2ft into the weekend, potentially increasing substantially Sunday into early next week with the prolonged onshore flow (especially S). For the first time in quite some time the rip risk will drop to low for all beaches Thursday and Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
