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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1274541 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 242 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Full discussion update. No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. High pressure will remain anchored off the Southeast coast through the weekend. The upper ridge offshore will build westward today with modest height rises keeping a lid on widespread convection. 00z models and CAM guidance show the potential for relatively greater shower and storm chances across northeastern NC early this afternoon but PoPs remain below 40%. Another area of showers and storms will likely form west and northwest of the local area along the higher Blue Ridge terrain by mid to late afternoon. These storms may just be able to sneak into the far NW and N portions of the area by the evening but most of the region will be dry. With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on today with upper 90s-low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 40%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only 30-40%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. SW winds generally 5-10 kt overnight and closer to 10 kt with gusts 15 kt today. Few to scattered CU are possible late morning through the afternoon. Convective coverage today is expected to be very sparse but the relative highest chances are focused on ECG and ORF this afternoon. Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected on Fri/Sat. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend, outside of local thunderstorm influences. An expansive Bermuda high is the main feature influencing winds this morning, and marine observation sites are measuring SW of 10-15 kts, with a few gusts of 15-20 kts. Waves in the Bay are 1-2 ft, and seas in the nearshore coastal waters are 2-3 ft. The same general synoptic set up will linger through the weekend, though a few weak disturbances will move through to our north which could occasionally tighten the gradient further through Saturday. Sub-SCA S-SW winds ~10-15 kt are forecast to develop each morning (up to 15-20 kts in the coastal waters), turning S-SE nearshore with seabreeze circulations each afternoon. As the aforementioned high drifts closer to the coast, the gradient will relax and winds of ~10 kts or less are forecast by early next week. Waves in the Bay will remain between 1-2 ft, with seas in the coastal waters ranging between 2-4 ft. Daily afternoon and evening isolated shower and storm chances persist into the weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through at least Saturday, with a low risk for the southern beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274527 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 122 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 735 EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. Evening wx analysis shows a weakening upper level trough over the southern Appalachians, with southerly flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. Only a few isolated showers and storms have appeared on radar (mainly across the Piedmont and NE NC) thanks to height rises from the building ridge offshore and no boundaries/well defined forcing mechanism nearby. Convection should continue until around sunset (given the loss of daytime heating), though the vast majority of the area will stay dry. Flash flooding appears unlikely at this time. However, cannot completely rule out very localized issues if a shower/storm hits one of the locations which received significant rainfall yesterday. The drying trend continues on Thursday with even more height rises as the ridge offshore builds to the west. There is only a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm during the aftn/evening (mainly in the Piedmont). With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on Thursday with upper 90s- low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 30%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only 20-30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. SW winds generally 5-10 kt overnight and closer to 10 kt with gusts 15 kt today. Few to scattered CU are possible late morning through the afternoon. Convective coverage today is expected to be very sparse but the relative highest chances are focused on ECG and ORF this afternoon. Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected on Fri/Sat. && .MARINE... As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through late week, outside of local thunderstorm influences. This afternoon, a warm front has lifted north of the local waters. Meanwhile, expansive high pressure is centered well offshore and is building into the local waters. Winds are primarily out of the S to SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots. Nearshore seas are averaging 2 to 3 feet while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are averaging 1 to 2 feet. Bermuda high will slowly drift closer to the area late this week into the weekend, allowing for a more typical summer setup over the waters. S to SW winds will generally average 10 to 15 knots throughout the period, with S to SE afternoon seabreeze circulations each afternoon. Daily afternoon and evening shower and storm chances persist into the weekend, though chances will be much lower Thursday/Friday and into the weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through midweek, with a low risk for the southern beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
