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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1261028 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 27.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 234 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for snow and freezing rain have decreased for the early week system. Timing for precip onset Monday has also been delayed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend. 2) Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend. Low-level cloud cover has been gradually scouring over central VA this afternoon with a few peaks of sunshine filtering through the cirrus deck aloft. However, the frontal system which brought the widespread rain yesterday has now stalled just offshore of the Carolina coast. This is allowing scattered showers to persist over far srn/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures are coolest across the SE (mid- upper 40s) and "mildest" to the N and W (lower-mid 50s). Low-end PoPs remain in the forecast for far SE VA and NE NC into early tonight, with dry conditions then expected thereafter. Depending on cloud cover and winds, fog could also develop late. Guidance is honing in on three specific locations for the potential: 1) NE NC, especially near the Albemarle Sound; 2) portions of the Piedmont W of I-95; and 3) the MD Eastern Shore. Confidence isn`t particularly high in dense fog, so limited it to the "patchy" wording at this time. The weekend will generally be mild and dry. Saturday`s highs will trend a few degrees above average with mid 60s expected inland. Closer to the coast, a sea breeze off the chilly water will likely keep those near the immediate coast cooler and in the 55-60 F range. Another good shot at above normal temps is expected Sunday, especially early in the day. Uncertainty remains higher than usual due to a backdoor cold front that is forecast to drop south in the afternoon and evening. A quicker passage would yield cooler temps for the day and vice versa for a slower passage. Regardless, the warmest temps are across for southern and southwest forecast of the forecast area (generally SW of the US-460 corridor) with upper 60s to lower (potentially mid) 70s. Further NE toward the I-64 corridor and Northern Neck, temps likely stay in the 60s. The Eastern Shore will be the losers in this setup as temps struggle to get out of the 50s. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock. Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. Unsettled weather makes a return Monday through the midweek period. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft. The trend in the model guidance today has been for a slower arrival of precip, along with lighter precip overall. This delays much of the precip onset until later Monday and Monday night. The slower arrival also means the low-level cold air will be very shallow, likely favoring sleet or light freezing rain/drizzle. Even so, temperatures will be marginal (31-32 F at most) for much, if any, impact. Correspondingly, probabilities from all modeling systems (NBM/GEFS/EPS) have trended down, with the still-aggressive GFS not as aggressive as of 12z. Some slick spots, especially on untreated and elevated surfaces, could still develop for the Tuesday morning commute. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1235 PM EST Friday... Flight conditions have improved to VFR for most of the area terminals as of 18z. The one exception is ECG where low-end MVFR (CIGS ~1500 ft) persists and will likely persist through most of today. Otherwise, there is rather widespread mid and high-level cloud cover leading to BKN-OVC skies (a bit sunnier up toward SBY). A lingering coastal trough to our S and SE will likely favor degraded conditions again tonight, particularly for the terminals in SE VA (ORF/PHF) and NE NC (ECG). IFR CIGs are most probable in these locations but they could also sneak into RIC. Along the immediate coast and on the MD Eastern Shore, reduced VSBY from fog is also reflected in some model guidance. The most likely timing would be after 04z or so. Will not be too aggressive in the TAFs at this range, but prevailing IFR- LIFR may need to be included in the 00z TAFs once the location and coverage is refined. Conditions again slowly improve Saturday morning after 14-15z. Winds will be on the lighter side through the period (generally 5-10 kt or less) and out of the N/NE. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional (wintry?) precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning. - A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region. Latest analysis reveals a surface cold front now offshore of the southeast coast, with winds over the local are generally NNE ~10kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. Weak high pressure centered north of the local waters will continue to ridge down the east coast through this aftn/evening. Winds remain ~10 kt or less through this evening, eventually backing to the NNE late tonight and early on Saturday. Similar conditions expected for Saturday, as weak low pressure slides NE along the front off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range. Winds briefly veer around to the SSE late Saturday, turning offshore to the SSW and Sunday morning ~10 kt ahead of the next system. That next system arrives Sunday, and will bring some rather abrupt sensible weather changes! Sprawling cold high pressure builds S from central Canada into the upper Great Lakes, nudging a backdoor cold front south through the local waters Sunday afternoon and evening. Cold air advection behind that front, along with enough of a compressing pressure gradient will combine for quickly increasing N/NE winds late Sun aftn through Monday. In-house wind probabilities are near 80-100% for winds >18kt Sunday night into Monday morning, and SCA conditions appear likely for much of the marine area, though winds are a bit more marginal for the upper rivers. On the coastal waters, building wind waves allow seas to increase to 4-5 ft N and 5- 7 ft S Sunday night through at least Monday night, into Tuesday morning over southern waters). 5-6 ft seas over southern waters well into the day Tuesday, before seas finally subside by the middle of next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return for the latter half of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261016 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 27.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1235 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the weekend and early next week forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. 2) A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 257 AM EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. The cold front that brought a dreary day and between 0.10-1.0" of rain to the local area yesterday is now south of our area. Though most of the area will remain dry and start seeing improving conditions after sunrise, a few additional waves of low pressure riding along the stalled boundary/coastal trough set up to our south may bring some light showers across NE NC and far SE VA through the afternoon. Temperatures in the mid-50s are forecast for areas west of I-95 today, while northeasterly onshore flow (albeit weak flow) will keep the remainder of the area between 50-55F with a few places along the immediate coast only seeing the upper 40s. Heading into the weekend, the coastal system will be departing the region and high pressure is expected to build across the area. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast due to the influence of the sea- breeze and chilly water temps). Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday. A quicker front would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA, while a slower front would allow a majority of the local area to reach near to above normal temperates (highest in the piedmont). KEY MESSAGE 2...A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which being wintry weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The northern tier of the area is still favored for an initial burst of snow Monday/Monday night, with the Piedmont then favored for light freezing rain or drizzle by Tuesday morning as the cold air becomes increasingly shallow under light overrunning precip. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty regarding precip types and the overall evolution of the event, so we will need to keep monitoring over the next few days to fine tune amounts, timing, impacts, etc. Still, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance-level impacts favored. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1235 PM EST Friday... Flight conditions have improved to VFR for most of the area terminals as of 18z. The one exception is ECG where low-end MVFR (CIGS ~1500 ft) persists and will likely persist through most of today. Otherwise, there is rather widespread mid and high-level cloud cover leading to BKN-OVC skies (a bit sunnier up toward SBY). A lingering coastal trough to our S and SE will likely favor degraded conditions again tonight, particularly for the terminals in SE VA (ORF/PHF) and NE NC (ECG). IFR CIGs are most probable in these locations but they could also sneak into RIC. Along the immediate coast and on the MD Eastern Shore, reduced VSBY from fog is also reflected in some model guidance. The most likely timing would be after 04z or so. Will not be too aggressive in the TAFs at this range, but prevailing IFR- LIFR may need to be included in the 00z TAFs once the location and coverage is refined. Conditions again slowly improve Saturday morning after 14-15z. Winds will be on the lighter side through the period (generally 5-10 kt or less) and out of the N/NE. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional (wintry?) precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning. - A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region. The surface cold front has pushed S of the local waters early this morning, bringing a N wind ~10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. VSBYs have improved enough to allow the Marine Dense Fog Advisory to end. Weak high pressure settles over VA later today, and drifts offshore this aftn/evening, leading to a period of diminishing winds (10 kt or less) that become NE to E. Similar conditions for Saturday as weak low pressure lifts NE off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range on average. Changes arrive Sunday, as a backdoor cold front will move through the area, most likely in the aftn. With strong sfc high pressure (to ~1040 mb), forecast to build from the Great Lakes to New England, expect some cold air advection and enough of a pressure gradient to allow for increasing N/NE winds late Sun- Sun night into Monday. SCA conditions appear likely for much of the area, with seas building to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S. The upper rivers would be the region that could be too marginal for any headlines. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return through late week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1260998 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 642 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the weekend and early next week forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. 2) A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 257 AM EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. The cold front that brought a dreary day and between 0.10-1.0" of rain to the local area yesterday is now south of our area. Though most of the area will remain dry and start seeing improving conditions after sunrise, a few additional waves of low pressure riding along the stalled boundary/coastal trough set up to our south may bring some light showers across NE NC and far SE VA through the afternoon. Temperatures in the mid-50s are forecast for areas west of I-95 today, while northeasterly onshore flow (albeit weak flow) will keep the remainder of the area between 50-55F with a few places along the immediate coast only seeing the upper 40s. Heading into the weekend, the coastal system will be departing the region and high pressure is expected to build across the area. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast due to the influence of the sea- breeze and chilly water temps). Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday. A quicker front would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA, while a slower front would allow a majority of the local area to reach near to above normal temperates (highest in the piedmont). KEY MESSAGE 2...A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which being wintry weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The northern tier of the area is still favored for an initial burst of snow Monday/Monday night, with the Piedmont then favored for light freezing rain or drizzle by Tuesday morning as the cold air becomes increasingly shallow under light overrunning precip. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty regarding precip types and the overall evolution of the event, so we will need to keep monitoring over the next few days to fine tune amounts, timing, impacts, etc. Still, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance-level impacts favored. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 642 AM EST Friday... Lingering patchy for will continue to impact most terminals for the next hour or so before dissipating. While RIC and SBY will likely remain dry today, isolated showers are possible at PHF, ORF, and ECG. With the highest confidence in showers at ECG, have opted to include a few hours of -SHRA through the early afternoon. Conditions at all terminals will improve later this morning, though MVFR CIGs could hang around at ECG through this evening. Winds will remain light (~5 kt) out of the northeast through the TAF period. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning. - A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region. The surface cold front has pushed S of the local waters early this morning, bringing a N wind ~10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. VSBYs have improved enough to allow the Marine Dense Fog Advisory to end. Weak high pressure settles over VA later today, and drifts offshore this aftn/evening, leading to a period of diminishing winds (10 kt or less) that become NE to E. Similar conditions for Saturday as weak low pressure lifts NE off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range on average. Changes arrive Sunday, as a backdoor cold front will move through the area, most likely in the aftn. With strong sfc high pressure (to ~1040 mb), forecast to build from the Great Lakes to New England, expect some cold air advection and enough of a pressure gradient to allow for increasing N/NE winds late Sun- Sun night into Monday. SCA conditions appear likely for much of the area, with seas building to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S. The upper rivers would be the region that could be too marginal for any headlines. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return through late week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1260991 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the weekend and early next week forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. 2) A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 257 AM EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. The cold front that brought a dreary day and between 0.10-1.0" of rain to the local area yesterday is now south of our area. Though most of the area will remain dry and start seeing improving conditions after sunrise, a few additional waves of low pressure riding along the stalled boundary/coastal trough set up to our south may bring some light showers across NE NC and far SE VA through the afternoon. Temperatures in the mid-50s are forecast for areas west of I-95 today, while northeasterly onshore flow (albeit weak flow) will keep the remainder of the area between 50-55F with a few places along the immediate coast only seeing the upper 40s. Heading into the weekend, the coastal system will be departing the region and high pressure is expected to build across the area. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast due to the influence of the sea- breeze and chilly water temps). Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday. A quicker front would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA, while a slower front would allow a majority of the local area to reach near to above normal temperates (highest in the piedmont). KEY MESSAGE 2...A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which being wintry weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The northern tier of the area is still favored for an initial burst of snow Monday/Monday night, with the Piedmont then favored for light freezing rain or drizzle by Tuesday morning as the cold air becomes increasingly shallow under light overrunning precip. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty regarding precip types and the overall evolution of the event, so we will need to keep monitoring over the next few days to fine tune amounts, timing, impacts, etc. Still, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance-level impacts favored. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Friday... A mixed bag of flight conditions will continue at all terminals through later this morning. A majority of the sites are seeing MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, while SBY has been holding onto VFR conditions. This is being caused by a mix of low CIGs and reduced VIS, which will linger through at least sunrise. Thereafter, conditions should start to gradually improve at RIC and SBY, while PHF, ORF, and ECG hold onto the lower CIGs for a little while longer. Winds will remain light (~5 kt) out of the northeast through the TAF period. Outlook: Gradually drying out with mainly VFR conditions prevailing Friday afternoon into the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning. - A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region. The surface cold front has pushed S of the local waters early this morning, bringing a N wind ~10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. VSBYs have improved enough to allow the Marine Dense Fog Advisory to end. Weak high pressure settles over VA later today, and drifts offshore this aftn/evening, leading to a period of diminishing winds (10 kt or less) that become NE to E. Similar conditions for Saturday as weak low pressure lifts NE off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range on average. Changes arrive Sunday, as a backdoor cold front will move through the area, most likely in the aftn. With strong sfc high pressure (to ~1040 mb), forecast to build from the Great Lakes to New England, expect some cold air advection and enough of a pressure gradient to allow for increasing N/NE winds late Sun- Sun night into Monday. SCA conditions appear likely for much of the area, with seas building to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S. The upper rivers would be the region that could be too marginal for any headlines. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return through late week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1260988 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 257 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the weekend and early next week forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. 2) A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 257 AM EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. The cold front that brought a dreary day and between 0.10-1.0" of rain to the local area yesterday is now south of our area. Though most of the area will remain dry and start seeing improving conditions after sunrise, a few additional waves of low pressure riding along the stalled boundary/coastal trough set up to our south may bring some light showers across NE NC and far SE VA through the afternoon. Temperatures in the mid-50s are forecast for areas west of I-95 today, while northeasterly onshore flow (albeit weak flow) will keep the remainder of the area between 50-55F with a few places along the immediate coast only seeing the upper 40s. Heading into the weekend, the coastal system will be departing the region and high pressure is expected to build across the area. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast due to the influence of the sea- breeze and chilly water temps). Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday. A quicker front would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA, while a slower front would allow a majority of the local area to reach near to above normal temperates (highest in the piedmont). KEY MESSAGE 2...A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which being wintry weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The northern tier of the area is still favored for an initial burst of snow Monday/Monday night, with the Piedmont then favored for light freezing rain or drizzle by Tuesday morning as the cold air becomes increasingly shallow under light overrunning precip. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty regarding precip types and the overall evolution of the event, so we will need to keep monitoring over the next few days to fine tune amounts, timing, impacts, etc. Still, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance-level impacts favored. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Friday... A mixed bag of flight conditions will continue at all terminals through later this morning. A majority of the sites are seeing MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, while SBY has been holding onto VFR conditions. This is being caused by a mix of low CIGs and reduced VIS, which will linger through at least sunrise. Thereafter, conditions should start to gradually improve at RIC and SBY, while PHF, ORF, and ECG hold onto the lower CIGs for a little while longer. Winds will remain light (~5 kt) out of the northeast through the TAF period. Outlook: Gradually drying out with mainly VFR conditions prevailing Friday afternoon into the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EST Thursday... - A cold front drops southward across the waters late this afternoon into the evening hours with winds becoming northeast behind the boundary. - Marine fog has developed and become locally dense in spots ahead of the cold front. The surface cold front has been much slower than expected to progress southward this afternoon. Winds remains very light out of the S ahead of the boundary which currently is stalled along a line from just south of Tangier Island eastward to Wallops Island. With stagnant warmer air over cool waters, marine fog has formed and become dense in a spots across the middle/southern Ches Bay, adjacent tidal rivers, and offshore (mainly near and south of Wallops. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for these areas through 8pm for the northern waters and through 1am farther south. Some extensions or early cancellations are possible as the front finally moves south. Behind the front, winds briefly turn to the northeast and increase slightly, though SCA conditions are not expected. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, leading to a period of diminishing winds (10 kt or less) and benign marine conditions through mid day Sunday. A backdoor cold front will move through the area on late Sunday afternoon and bring another potential round of SCA conditions to the local waters by late Sunday into early next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions return through late week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1260970 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1228 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Patchy fog has been added to the forecast tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes to the weekend and early next week forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain continues through this evening. Mild and drier conditions are then expected Friday into the weekend. 2) A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 PM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues through this evening. Mild and drier conditions are then expected Friday into the weekend. A wave of low pressure along a southward-sagging cold front is bringing widespread rainfall to the area this afternoon. Radar currently shows the greatest precip intensity from south-central VA through the Peninsula and the Eastern Shore. As the front slowly pushes further S this evening and tonight, the precip shield should also follow suit. Rain totals have underperformed model guidance a bit today, but still expect the highest amounts across srn VA and NE NC where an aerial average of 0.5-1" is expected. Locally higher amounts are possible. Elsewhere, amounts should fall shy of 0.5". Gradually drying out tonight, though lingering light rain or drizzle is possible across the southern tier of the area. Patchy fog could also develop but confidence in this is lower due to the widespread cloud cover. Overnight lows fall into the 30s, coolest N and NE. The front will be located S of the area Friday. However, there will be additional waves of low pressure riding along the stalled boundary/coastal trough setup. Most of the area will be dry, but cannot rule out some lingering showers for NE NC and coastal Hampton Roads. Skies will be partly/mostly sunny N and NW and mostly cloudy SE, with high temps in the mid 50s inland and upper 40s at the coast. The weekend should generally be mild with little to no rain chances given building high pressure and the departing coastal system. Highs Saturday generally range through the 60s, though weak synoptic flow may allow a sea breeze to filter cooler temps (50s) in along the coast. Still am expecting a backdoor cold front to advance southward during the afternoon Sunday. This would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA. There are still discrepancies among the model guidance regarding where the boundary sets up so uncertainty is quite high. KEY MESSAGE 2...A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side. The pattern continues to look to become more unsettled as we head into early next week with additional chances for precipitation (and some winter weather). The current consensus is for sfc high pressure to situate NE of the area, with a wedge of cooler air in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance depict a series of shortwaves moving through in the progressive flow aloft, potentially bringing additional precipitation to the area. Precip type will be heavily dependent on the depth of cold air in place and the exact track of these systems. Regardless, there is at least some threat for additional wintry wx during this timeframe. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The northern tier of the area is still favored for an initial burst of snow Monday/Monday night, with the Piedmont then favored for light freezing rain or drizzle by Tuesday morning as the cold air becomes increasingly shallow under light overrunning precip. The 12z model guidance actually introduced more uncertainty into the forecast so we will need to keep monitoring over the next few days to fine tune amounts, timing, impacts, etc. Still, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance-level impacts favored. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. Beyond the cool/wet/wintry system to the begin the week, there is increasing confidence in a significant warmup by the middle and end of next week. The EPS and GEFS both show an anomalous upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with 850 mb and 2-meter temperature anomalies well above average. Highs well into the 60s and possibly the 70s are possible by then. However, there`s always uncertainty with backdoor cold front this time of the year so this warm wx is definitely not a 100% lock at this range. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Friday... A mixed bag of flight conditions will continue at all terminals through later this morning. A majority of the sites are seeing MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, while SBY has been holding onto VFR conditions. This is being caused by a mix of low CIGs and reduced VIS, which will linger through at least sunrise. Thereafter, conditions should start to gradually improve at RIC and SBY, while PHF, ORF, and ECG hold onto the lower CIGs for a little while longer. Winds will remain light (~5 kt) out of the northeast through the TAF period. Outlook: Gradually drying out with mainly VFR conditions prevailing Friday afternoon into the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EST Thursday... - A cold front drops southward across the waters late this afternoon into the evening hours with winds becoming northeast behind the boundary. - Marine fog has developed and become locally dense in spots ahead of the cold front. The surface cold front has been much slower than expected to progress southward this afternoon. Winds remains very light out of the S ahead of the boundary which currently is stalled along a line from just south of Tangier Island eastward to Wallops Island. With stagnant warmer air over cool waters, marine fog has formed and become dense in a spots across the middle/southern Ches Bay, adjacent tidal rivers, and offshore (mainly near and south of Wallops. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for these areas through 8pm for the northern waters and through 1am farther south. Some extensions or early cancellations are possible as the front finally moves south. Behind the front, winds briefly turn to the northeast and increase slightly, though SCA conditions are not expected. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, leading to a period of diminishing winds (10 kt or less) and benign marine conditions through mid day Sunday. A backdoor cold front will move through the area on late Sunday afternoon and bring another potential round of SCA conditions to the local waters by late Sunday into early next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions return through late week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ632>634-636>638-656-658. && $$ |
