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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1248211 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:48 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 941 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A developing secondary low offshore of the DelMarVa will linger just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 940 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The coastal storm impacts the region through tomorrow morning, bringing light to moderate rain, wind, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Extended the Wind Advisories through 06z/2 AM from Mathews County south through Chesapeake/VA Beach. We are seeing an increase in N-NNE winds due to a tightening pressure gradient on the back side of low pressure just off the coast combined with a push of CAA. Winds will gradually diminish later tonight. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Surface analysis this evening is showing the initial coastal low sitting just off the Carolina coastline. This low has occluded and a secondary weak low is developing along a stationary warm front draped offshore of the DelMarVa peninsula. To our northeast, a strong high is centered across NE Canada. Aloft, there are two upper lows across the East Coast; one stacked with the initial low near the Carolinas and the other across the eastern Great Lakes region. The surface gradient between the areas of low pressure and the high remains tightened, and land- based surface obs reflect this by measuring winds of 20-25 mph inland and 35-45 mph closer to and along the coast. The local radar is still detecting swaths of light to occasionally moderate rain this evening, though these bands are not producing too much in the way of measurable rainfall. Temperatures are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The upper low across the NE will allow for a stagnant pattern tonight, causing the developing low offshore to linger and the breezy and soggy conditions to continue overnight and into tomorrow. The low offshore of the Mid-Atlantic is also expected to occlude, which will start to weaken it in the process. This will result in a slight relaxing of the pressure gradient overnight. Winds will likely come down some tonight, but are expected to remain elevated. Light rain showers will continue across the area, though the piedmont region may see showers coming to an end by early tomorrow morning. Additional rainfall will be limited to .1- .2" due to the lighter nature of these showers. Skies will remain overcast for the entire forecast area tonight. The diurnal temperature difference will not be much with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Coastal flooding will remain the biggest issue tonight in terms of hazards associated with the coastal storm (see Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more information). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Chances of showers continue across the Eastern Shore Monday. - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. The upper level pattern for Monday consists of an upper level low over southern NE and NY with a trough over the SE. This will allow for the coastal low at the surface to linger off the coast. This will allow Pops to remain in the forecast primarily across the MD/VA Eastern shore and far SE VA along the coast. Pops remain between 30 to 40 percent through the day across the that area with them increasing to 50 to 60 % later in the day Monday as the low occludes and the new low finally develops. For the rest of the area dry conditions should prevail under cloudy skies. Perhaps some light drizzle is possible with the low- level saturation profiles based off of model soundings. High temperatures for Monday will remain cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. By early Tuesday the a upper level trough will move into the area to help move the coastal low out of the area. A the coastal low exits the area clearing will begin to the west as drier air enters the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the west and mostly cloudy to the east. This will allow for a split in high temperatures. Along and west of I-95 highs will be in the lower 70s while to the east temperatures will remain in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of next week. - Potential increases for patchy frost Thursday night. The overall synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of upper 30s the far NW and across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW. The 12 GEFS has increased probabilities to 80-90% of temperatures falling below 40 degrees across the mentioned areas. With the models continuing to trend cooler and with very light to calm wind inland the potential for frost increases across these areas. By Friday high pressure will be centered over the area keeping the area dry and cool with highs around the middle 60s. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 732 PM EDT Sunday... Degraded flight conditions continue this evening, with lowered VIS due to light to moderate rain at all terminals aside from RIC. CIGS have been hovering between low-end MVFR and IFR at all sites over the past few hours. All sites will likely drop to IFR tonight, with some sites potentially seeing periods of LIFR CIGs. Rain will continue through early tomorrow morning, though SBY will see light rain through the TAF period. There is some uncertainty as to if the IFR CIGS lift any during the day tomorrow, so have not included improving conditions (aside from improving VIS as the rain lets up) due to this uncertainty. Winds will gradually decrease tonight, with gusts of 25-30 kts expected over the next few hours, followed by gusts of between 20-25 kts (~25 kts at the coastal terminals) tomorrow. The wind direction will back from the NE to N tonight, with winds becoming more NW at ECG tomorrow. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible through into Monday night as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 810 PM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Strong low pressure lingers off the Carolina coast through tonight. - All Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. Regardless dangerous marine conditions continue into tonight. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Converted the Gale Warnings to SCAs for the upper rivers (that run until 22z/6 PM Monday for now). Will keep all other Gale headlines as is, since winds have actually increased a bit while becoming more northerly over the bay/lower James. Previous Discussion as of 345 PM EDT... 998 mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast, and another area of low pressure has been slow to develop. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected and all Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. The low gradually begins to lift NNE tonight with some reorganization possible off the Delmarva coast. Given this, the pressure gradient will slacken and the wind will diminish SSE to NNW, with the strongest wind lingering in the middle of the Ches. Bay by early Monday morning. Therefore, Gale Warnings end later this evening for the Currituck Sound and nrn NC coastal waters, later tonight for the remaining coastal waters, mouth of the Bay, and lower James River, and Monday morning for the remainder of the Ches. Bay. Seas are primarily 12-15ft and occasionally up to 20ft and this should continue through tonight. Waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-10ft in the mouth of the Bay. With a broader/elongated coastal low by Monday, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period, with a period of marginal gale conditions possible Monday night into midday Tuesday (dependent on how close the low is to the coast). The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 815 PM EDT Sunday.. Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding occurred during the aftn/evening high tide cycle with some spots (e.g. Jamestown/Lynnhaven) seeing peak water levels around 0.5-0.75 ft above major flood stage. Crests at Sewell`s Point, Yorktown, and Lynnhaven were about 0.10 ft below the levels observed on 1/3/2022. Tidal anomalies have actually risen to 2.5-3.5 ft above astronomical tide levels this evening with the persistent N-NE wind and building seas. With the very high tidal anomalies, moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with tonight`s high tide, even though it is the lower of the two astronomical tides. The highest water levels tonight are expected to be along the James River and S/SE shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect (but will drop the warning for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore). Additional flooding is likely into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ084-086-095-097-098- 523-525. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-650-652-654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1248210 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:00 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 854 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A developing secondary low offshore of the DelMarVa will linger just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 854 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The coastal storm impacts the region through tomorrow morning, bringing light to moderate rain, wind, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Surface analysis this evening is showing the initial coastal low sitting just off the Carolina coastline. This low has occluded and a secondary weak low is developing along a stationary warm front draped offshore of the DelMarVa peninsula. To our northeast, a strong high is centered across NE Canada. Aloft, there are two upper lows across the East Coast; one stacked with the initial low near the Carolinas and the other across the eastern Great Lakes region. The surface gradient between the areas of low pressure and the high remains tightened, and land- based surface obs reflect this by measuring winds of 20-25 mph inland and 30-40 mph closer to and along the coast. The local radar is still detecting swaths of light to occasionally moderate rain this evening, though these bands are not producing too much in the way of measurable rainfall. Temperatures are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The upper low across the NE will allow for a stagnant pattern tonight, causing the developing low offshore to linger and the breezy and soggy conditions to continue overnight and into tomorrow. The low offshore of the Mid-Atlantic is also expected to occlude, which will start to weaken it in the process. This will result in a slight relaxing of the pressure gradient overnight. Winds will likely come down some tonight, but are expected to remain elevated. Light rain showers will continue across the area, though the piedmont region may see showers coming to an end by early tomorrow morning. Additional rainfall will be limited to .1- .2" due to the lighter nature of these showers. Skies will remain overcast for the entire forecast area tonight. The diurnal temperature difference will not be much with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Coastal flooding will remain the biggest issue tonight in terms of hazards associated with the coastal storm (see Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more information). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Chances of showers continue across the Eastern Shore Monday. - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. The upper level pattern for Monday consists of an upper level low over southern NE and NY with a trough over the SE. This will allow for the coastal low at the surface to linger off the coast. This will allow Pops to remain in the forecast primarily across the MD/VA Eastern shore and far SE VA along the coast. Pops remain between 30 to 40 percent through the day across the that area with them increasing to 50 to 60 % later in the day Monday as the low occludes and the new low finally develops. For the rest of the area dry conditions should prevail under cloudy skies. Perhaps some light drizzle is possible with the low- level saturation profiles based off of model soundings. High temperatures for Monday will remain cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. By early Tuesday the a upper level trough will move into the area to help move the coastal low out of the area. A the coastal low exits the area clearing will begin to the west as drier air enters the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the west and mostly cloudy to the east. This will allow for a split in high temperatures. Along and west of I-95 highs will be in the lower 70s while to the east temperatures will remain in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of next week. - Potential increases for patchy frost Thursday night. The overall synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of upper 30s the far NW and across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW. The 12 GEFS has increased probabilities to 80-90% of temperatures falling below 40 degrees across the mentioned areas. With the models continuing to trend cooler and with very light to calm wind inland the potential for frost increases across these areas. By Friday high pressure will be centered over the area keeping the area dry and cool with highs around the middle 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 732 PM EDT Sunday... Degraded flight conditions continue this evening, with lowered VIS due to light to moderate rain at all terminals aside from RIC. CIGS have been hovering between low-end MVFR and IFR at all sites over the past few hours. All sites will likely drop to IFR tonight, with some sites potentially seeing periods of LIFR CIGs. Rain will continue through early tomorrow morning, though SBY will see light rain through the TAF period. There is some uncertainty as to if the IFR CIGS lift any during the day tomorrow, so have not included improving conditions (aside from improving VIS as the rain lets up) due to this uncertainty. Winds will gradually decrease tonight, with gusts of 25-30 kts expected over the next few hours, followed by gusts of between 20-25 kts (~25 kts at the coastal terminals) tomorrow. The wind direction will back from the NE to N tonight, with winds becoming more NW at ECG tomorrow. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible through into Monday night as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 810 PM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Strong low pressure lingers off the Carolina coast through tonight. - All Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. Regardless dangerous marine conditions continue into tonight. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Converted the Gale Warnings to SCAs for the upper rivers (that run until 22z/6 PM Monday for now). Will keep all other Gale headlines as is, since winds have actually increased a bit while becoming more northerly over the bay/lower James. Previous Discussion as of 345 PM EDT... 998 mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast, and another area of low pressure has been slow to develop. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected and all Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. The low gradually begins to lift NNE tonight with some reorganization possible off the Delmarva coast. Given this, the pressure gradient will slacken and the wind will diminish SSE to NNW, with the strongest wind lingering in the middle of the Ches. Bay by early Monday morning. Therefore, Gale Warnings end later this evening for the Currituck Sound and nrn NC coastal waters, later tonight for the remaining coastal waters, mouth of the Bay, and lower James River, and Monday morning for the remainder of the Ches. Bay. Seas are primarily 12-15ft and occasionally up to 20ft and this should continue through tonight. Waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-10ft in the mouth of the Bay. With a broader/elongated coastal low by Monday, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period, with a period of marginal gale conditions possible Monday night into midday Tuesday (dependent on how close the low is to the coast). The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 815 PM EDT Sunday.. Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding occurred during the aftn/evening high tide cycle with some spots (e.g. Jamestown/Lynnhaven) seeing peak water levels around 0.5-0.75 ft above major flood stage. Crests at Sewell`s Point, Yorktown, and Lynnhaven were about 0.10 ft below the levels observed on 1/3/2022. Tidal anomalies have actually risen to 2.5-3.5 ft above astronomical tide levels this evening with the persistent N-NE wind and building seas. With the very high tidal anomalies, moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with tonight`s high tide, even though it is the lower of the two astronomical tides. The highest water levels tonight are expected to be along the James River and S/SE shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect (but will drop the warning for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore). Additional flooding is likely into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-098- 525. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-650-652-654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1248207 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:27 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 816 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area this afternoon and evening, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast late tonight/early Monday morning. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, wind, and moderate to major tidal flooding. - Weather conditions will slowly improve late tonight through early Monday. Afternoon weather analysis shows a 996mb coastal low pressure system just off the coast of SE NC. While to the north a strong 1034mb high pressure is centered over northeastern Canada. Over the course of the day the storm has slowly nudged north with the pressure gradient staying consistent across the area. Winds have slightly under performed across the High Wind Warning areas. Therefore the high wind warning has been able to be canceled. However, it they been replaced by Wind Advisories as winds are sustained between 20 to 35 mph with some gusts nearing 50 mph. Light rain showers and clouds have continued to move across the area. These clouds and showers have caused temperatures to stay cool across the area. As of 3pm temperatures are in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coastline. Throughout tonight the low is expected to occlude along a stationary warm front located over the coastal waters. However, given the recent trends in the models and real time analysis it is looking like the low will take a little longer to occlude than previously thought. Once this low occludes it will weaken slightly causing the pressure gradient to weaken and allowing winds to lighten. As of this update the wind advisories for VB/NC are allowed to expire later this evening. While across portions of the Peninsulas and Eastern Shore winds will decrease by early Monday morning. Light rain showers will continue across the area tonight with showers possible ending across the west by early Monday morning. However, not much QPF is expected with these light showers. Around.1- .2" of QPF is expected across VA/NC. While across the Eastern Shore QPF totals will be near .25" with some locally higher amounts possible. Temperatures will not drop much tonight as clouds and showers continue with lows in the middle to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Chances of showers continue across the Eastern Shore Monday. - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. The upper level pattern for Monday consists of an upper level low over southern NE and NY with a trough over the SE. This will allow for the coastal low at the surface to linger off the coast. This will allow Pops to remain in the forecast primarily across the MD/VA Eastern shore and far SE VA along the coast. Pops remain between 30 to 40 percent through the day across the that area with them increasing to 50 to 60 % later in the day Monday as the low occludes and the new low finally develops. For the rest of the area dry conditions should prevail under cloudy skies. Perhaps some light drizzle is possible with the low- level saturation profiles based off of model soundings. High temperatures for Monday will remain cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. By early Tuesday the a upper level trough will move into the area to help move the coastal low out of the area. A the coastal low exits the area clearing will begin to the west as drier air enters the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the west and mostly cloudy to the east. This will allow for a split in high temperatures. Along and west of I-95 highs will be in the lower 70s while to the east temperatures will remain in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of next week. - Potential increases for patchy frost Thursday night. The overall Synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of upper 30s the far NW and across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW. The 12 GEFS has increased probabilities to 80-90% of temperatures falling below 40 degrees across the mentioned areas. With the models continuing to trend cooler and with very light to calm wind inland the potential for frost increases across these areas. By Friday high pressure will be centered over the area keeping the area dry and cool with highs around the middle 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 732 PM EDT Sunday... Degraded flight conditions continue this evening, with lowered VIS due to light to moderate rain at all terminals aside from RIC. CIGS have been hovering between low-end MVFR and IFR at all sites over the past few hours. All sites will likely drop to IFR tonight, with some sites potentially seeing periods of LIFR CIGs. Rain will continue through early tomorrow morning, though SBY will see light rain through the TAF period. There is some uncertainty as to if the IFR CIGS lift any during the day tomorrow, so have not included improving conditions (aside from improving VIS as the rain lets up) due to this uncertainty. Winds will gradually decrease tonight, with gusts of 25-30 kts expected over the next few hours, followed by gusts of between 20-25 kts (~25 kts at the coastal terminals) tomorrow. The wind direction will back from the NE to N tonight, with winds becoming more NW at ECG tomorrow. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible through into Monday night as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 810 PM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Strong low pressure lingers off the Carolina coast through tonight. - All Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. Regardless dangerous marine conditions continue into tonight. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Converted the Gale Warnings to SCAs for the upper rivers (that run until 22z/6 PM Monday for now). Will keep all other Gale headlines as is, since winds have actually increased a bit while becoming more northerly over the bay/lower James. Previous Discussion as of 345 PM EDT... 998 mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast, and another area of low pressure has been slow to develop. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected and all Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. The low gradually begins to lift NNE tonight with some reorganization possible off the Delmarva coast. Given this, the pressure gradient will slacken and the wind will diminish SSE to NNW, with the strongest wind lingering in the middle of the Ches. Bay by early Monday morning. Therefore, Gale Warnings end later this evening for the Currituck Sound and nrn NC coastal waters, later tonight for the remaining coastal waters, mouth of the Bay, and lower James River, and Monday morning for the remainder of the Ches. Bay. Seas are primarily 12-15ft and occasionally up to 20ft and this should continue through tonight. Waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-10ft in the mouth of the Bay. With a broader/elongated coastal low by Monday, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period, with a period of marginal gale conditions possible Monday night into midday Tuesday (dependent on how close the low is to the coast). The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 815 PM EDT Sunday.. Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding occurred during the aftn/evening high tide cycle with some spots (e.g. Jamestown/Lynnhaven) seeing peak water levels around 0.5-0.75 ft above major flood stage. Crests at Sewell`s Point, Yorktown, and Lynnhaven were about 0.10 ft below the levels observed on 1/3/2022. Tidal anomalies have actually risen to 2.5-3.5 ft above astronomical tide levels this evening with the persistent N-NE wind and building seas. With the very high tidal anomalies, moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with tonight`s high tide, even though it is the lower of the two astronomical tides. The highest water levels tonight are expected to be along the James River and S/SE shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect (but will drop the warning for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore). Additional flooding is likely into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-098- 525. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-650-652-654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1248200 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 732 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area this afternoon and evening, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast late tonight/early Monday morning. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, wind, and moderate to major tidal flooding. - Weather conditions will slowly improve late tonight through early Monday. Afternoon weather analysis shows a 996mb coastal low pressure system just off the coast of SE NC. While to the north a strong 1034mb high pressure is centered over northeastern Canada. Over the course of the day the storm has slowly nudged north with the pressure gradient staying consistent across the area. Winds have slightly under performed across the High Wind Warning areas. Therefore the high wind warning has been able to be canceled. However, it they been replaced by Wind Advisories as winds are sustained between 20 to 35 mph with some gusts nearing 50 mph. Light rain showers and clouds have continued to move across the area. These clouds and showers have caused temperatures to stay cool across the area. As of 3pm temperatures are in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coastline. Throughout tonight the low is expected to occlude along a stationary warm front located over the coastal waters. However, given the recent trends in the models and real time analysis it is looking like the low will take a little longer to occlude than previously thought. Once this low occludes it will weaken slightly causing the pressure gradient to weaken and allowing winds to lighten. As of this update the wind advisories for VB/NC are allowed to expire later this evening. While across portions of the Peninsulas and Eastern Shore winds will decrease by early Monday morning. Light rain showers will continue across the area tonight with showers possible ending across the west by early Monday morning. However, not much QPF is expected with these light showers. Around.1- .2" of QPF is expected across VA/NC. While across the Eastern Shore QPF totals will be near .25" with some locally higher amounts possible. Temperatures will not drop much tonight as clouds and showers continue with lows in the middle to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Chances of showers continue across the Eastern Shore Monday. - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. The upper level pattern for Monday consists of an upper level low over southern NE and NY with a trough over the SE. This will allow for the coastal low at the surface to linger off the coast. This will allow Pops to remain in the forecast primarily across the MD/VA Eastern shore and far SE VA along the coast. Pops remain between 30 to 40 percent through the day across the that area with them increasing to 50 to 60 % later in the day Monday as the low occludes and the new low finally develops. For the rest of the area dry conditions should prevail under cloudy skies. Perhaps some light drizzle is possible with the low- level saturation profiles based off of model soundings. High temperatures for Monday will remain cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. By early Tuesday the a upper level trough will move into the area to help move the coastal low out of the area. A the coastal low exits the area clearing will begin to the west as drier air enters the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the west and mostly cloudy to the east. This will allow for a split in high temperatures. Along and west of I-95 highs will be in the lower 70s while to the east temperatures will remain in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of next week. - Potential increases for patchy frost Thursday night. The overall Synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of upper 30s the far NW and across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW. The 12 GEFS has increased probabilities to 80-90% of temperatures falling below 40 degrees across the mentioned areas. With the models continuing to trend cooler and with very light to calm wind inland the potential for frost increases across these areas. By Friday high pressure will be centered over the area keeping the area dry and cool with highs around the middle 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 732 PM EDT Sunday... Degraded flight conditions continue this evening, with lowered VIS due to light to moderate rain at all terminals aside from RIC. CIGS have been hovering between low-end MVFR and IFR at all sites over the past few hours. All sites will likely drop to IFR tonight, with some sites potentially seeing periods of LIFR CIGs. Rain will continue through early tomorrow morning, though SBY will see light rain through the TAF period. There is some uncertainty as to if the IFR CIGS lift any during the day tomorrow, so have not included improving conditions (aside from improving VIS as the rain lets up) due to this uncertainty. Winds will gradually decrease tonight, with gusts of 25-30 kts expected over the next few hours, followed by gusts of between 20-25 kts (~25 kts at the coastal terminals) tomorrow. The wind direction will back from the NE to N tonight, with winds becoming more NW at ECG tomorrow. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible through into Monday night as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Strong low pressure lingers off the Carolina coast through tonight. - All Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. Regardless dangerous marine conditions continue into tonight. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. 998 mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast, and another area of low pressure has been slow to develop. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected and all Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. The low gradually begins to lift NNE tonight with some reorganization possible off the Delmarva coast. Given this, the pressure gradient will slacken and the wind will diminish SSE to NNW, with the strongest wind lingering in the middle of the Ches. Bay by early Monday morning. Therefore, Gale Warnings end later this evening for the Currituck Sound and nrn NC coastal waters, later tonight for the remaining coastal waters, mouth of the Bay, and lower James River, and Monday morning for the remainder of the Ches. Bay. Seas are primarily 12-15ft and occasionally up to 20ft and this should continue through tonight. Waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-10ft in the mouth of the Bay. With a broader/elongated coastal low by Monday, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period, with a period of marginal gale conditions possible Monday night into midday Tuesday (dependent on how close the low is to the coast). The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday.. The current high tide cycle has just passed for the ocean and is gradually working its way up through the Ches. Bay and tidal rivers. Moderate to major flooding has occurred and is expected to occur over the next few hours. Some locations have likely received their highest high tides in a few years, and potentially up to 10 years. The highest anomaly is not expected to reach Cambridge. Additional flooding is likely into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. A strong flood tide has resulted in a response in the tidal anomaly at Bishops Head, and the Coastal Flood Advisory has been upgraded to a warning for potential moderate flooding at Crisfield and Bishops Head. The following high tide will be the lower astronomical with nuisance to minor tidal flooding expected for these locations late tonight/early Monday morning. Additional flooding at these sites is possible early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-098- 525. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-650-652-654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1248180 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area this afternoon and evening, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast late tonight/early Monday morning. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, wind, and moderate to major tidal flooding. - Weather conditions will slowly improve late tonight through early Monday. Afternoon weather analysis shows a 996mb coastal low pressure system just off the coast of SE NC. While to the north a strong 1034mb high pressure is centered over northeastern Canada. Over the course of the day the storm has slowly nudged north with the pressure gradient staying consistent across the area. Winds have slightly under performed across the High Wind Warning areas. Therefore the high wind warning has been able to be canceled. However, it they been replaced by Wind Advisories as winds are sustained between 20 to 35 mph with some gusts nearing 50 mph. Light rain showers and clouds have continued to move across the area. These clouds and showers have caused temperatures to stay cool across the area. As of 3pm temperatures are in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coastline. Throughout tonight the low is expected to occlude along a stationary warm front located over the coastal waters. However, given the recent trends in the models and real time analysis it is looking like the low will take a little longer to occlude than previously thought. Once this low occludes it will weaken slightly causing the pressure gradient to weaken and allowing winds to lighten. As of this update the wind advisories for VB/NC are allowed to expire later this evening. While across portions of the Peninsulas and Eastern Shore winds will decrease by early Monday morning. Light rain showers will continue across the area tonight with showers possible ending across the west by early Monday morning. However, not much QPF is expected with these light showers. Around.1- .2" of QPF is expected across VA/NC. While across the Eastern Shore QPF totals will be near .25" with some locally higher amounts possible. Temperatures will not drop much tonight as clouds and showers continue with lows in the middle to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Chances of showers continue across the Eastern Shore Monday. - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. The upper level pattern for Monday consists of an upper level low over southern NE and NY with a trough over the SE. This will allow for the coastal low at the surface to linger off the coast. This will allow Pops to remain in the forecast primarily across the MD/VA Eastern shore and far SE VA along the coast. Pops remain between 30 to 40 percent through the day across the that area with them increasing to 50 to 60 % later in the day Monday as the low occludes and the new low finally develops. For the rest of the area dry conditions should prevail under cloudy skies. Perhaps some light drizzle is possible with the low- level saturation profiles based off of model soundings. High temperatures for Monday will remain cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. By early Tuesday the a upper level trough will move into the area to help move the coastal low out of the area. A the coastal low exits the area clearing will begin to the west as drier air enters the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the west and mostly cloudy to the east. This will allow for a split in high temperatures. Along and west of I-95 highs will be in the lower 70s while to the east temperatures will remain in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of next week. - Potential increases for patchy frost Thursday night. The overall Synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of upper 30s the far NW and across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW. The 12 GEFS has increased probabilities to 80-90% of temperatures falling below 40 degrees across the mentioned areas. With the models continuing to trend cooler and with very light to calm wind inland the potential for frost increases across these areas. By Friday high pressure will be centered over the area keeping the area dry and cool with highs around the middle 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 103 PM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this afternoon. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. The IFR CIGs are mainly W of the coastal terminals and closer to RIC. Widespread light to moderate rainfall continues to extend from NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the the rest of the afternoon and late evening as the low pressure system moves further N. By late this evening and early Monday morning, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle. Widespread IFR- LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds have increased throughout today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds gusts up to 40-45 kt have been noted. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt mid afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Strong low pressure lingers off the Carolina coast through tonight. - All Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. Regardless dangerous marine conditions continue into tonight. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. 998 mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast, and another area of low pressure has been slow to develop. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected and all Storm Warnings have been converted to Gale Warnings. The low gradually begins to lift NNE tonight with some reorganization possible off the Delmarva coast. Given this, the pressure gradient will slacken and the wind will diminish SSE to NNW, with the strongest wind lingering in the middle of the Ches. Bay by early Monday morning. Therefore, Gale Warnings end later this evening for the Currituck Sound and nrn NC coastal waters, later tonight for the remaining coastal waters, mouth of the Bay, and lower James River, and Monday morning for the remainder of the Ches. Bay. Seas are primarily 12-15ft and occasionally up to 20ft and this should continue through tonight. Waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-10ft in the mouth of the Bay. With a broader/elongated coastal low by Monday, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period, with a period of marginal gale conditions possible Monday night into midday Tuesday (dependent on how close the low is to the coast). The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday.. The current high tide cycle has just passed for the ocean and is gradually working its way up through the Ches. Bay and tidal rivers. Moderate to major flooding has occurred and is expected to occur over the next few hours. Some locations have likely received their highest high tides in a few years, and potentially up to 10 years. The highest anomaly is not expected to reach Cambridge. Additional flooding is likely into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. A strong flood tide has resulted in a response in the tidal anomaly at Bishops Head, and the Coastal Flood Advisory has been upgraded to a warning for potential moderate flooding at Crisfield and Bishops Head. The following high tide will be the lower astronomical with nuisance to minor tidal flooding expected for these locations late tonight/early Monday morning. Additional flooding at these sites is possible early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-098- 525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-650-652-654- 656. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1248179 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area this afternoon and evening, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast late tonight/early Monday morning. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, wind, and moderate to major tidal flooding. - Weather conditions will slowly improve late tonight through early Monday. Afternoon weather analysis shows a 996mb coastal low pressure system just off the coast of SE NC. While to the north a strong 1034mb high pressure is centered over northeastern Canada. Over the course of the day the storm has slowly nudged north with the pressure gradient staying consistent across the area. Winds have slightly under performed across the High Wind Warning areas. Therefore the high wind warning has been able to be canceled. However, it they been replaced by Wind Advisories as winds are sustained between 20 to 35 mph with some gusts nearing 50 mph. Light rain showers and clouds have continued to move across the area. These clouds and showers have caused temperatures to stay cool across the area. As of 3pm temperatures are in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coastline. Throughout tonight the low is expected to occlude along a stationary warm front located over the coastal waters. However, given the recent trends in the models and real time analysis it is looking like the low will take a little longer to occlude than previously thought. Once this low occludes it will weaken slightly causing the pressure gradient to weaken and allowing winds to lighten. As of this update the wind advisories for VB/NC are allowed to expire later this evening. While across portions of the Peninsulas and Eastern Shore winds will decrease by early Monday morning. Light rain showers will continue across the area tonight with showers possible ending across the west by early Monday morning. However, not much QPF is expected with these light showers. Around.1- .2" of QPF is expected across VA/NC. While across the Eastern Shore QPF totals will be near .25" with some locally higher amounts possible. Temperatures will not drop much tonight as clouds and showers continue with lows in the middle to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -Chances of showers continue across the Eastern Shore Monday. - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. The upper level pattern for Monday consists of an upper level low over southern NE and NY with a trough over the SE. This will allow for the coastal low at the surface to linger off the coast. This will allow Pops to remain in the forecast primarily across the MD/VA Eastern shore and far SE VA along the coast. Pops remain between 30 to 40 percent through the day across the that area with them increasing to 50 to 60 % later in the day Monday as the low occludes and the new low finally develops. For the rest of the area dry conditions should prevail under cloudy skies. Perhaps some light drizzle is possible with the low- level saturation profiles based off of model soundings. High temperatures for Monday will remain cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. By early Tuesday the a upper level trough will move into the area to help move the coastal low out of the area. A the coastal low exits the area clearing will begin to the west as drier air enters the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the west and mostly cloudy to the east. This will allow for a split in high temperatures. Along and west of I-95 highs will be in the lower 70s while to the east temperatures will remain in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of next week. - Potential increases for patchy frost Thursday night. The overall Synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of upper 30s the far NW and across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW. The 12 GEFS has increased probabilities to 80-90% of temperatures falling below 40 degrees across the mentioned areas. With the models continuing to trend cooler and with very light to calm wind inland the potential for frost increases across these areas. By Friday high pressure will be centered over the area keeping the area dry and cool with highs around the middle 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 103 PM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this afternoon. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. The IFR CIGs are mainly W of the coastal terminals and closer to RIC. Widespread light to moderate rainfall continues to extend from NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the the rest of the afternoon and late evening as the low pressure system moves further N. By late this evening and early Monday morning, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle. Widespread IFR- LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds have increased throughout today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds gusts up to 40-45 kt have been noted. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt mid afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 1130 AM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Intense low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts north today, bringing strong Gale conditions for most, with Storm Warnings for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Storm Warnings for the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles have been converted to Gale Warnings. 997mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected S of Cape Charles hence the headline change. Previous Discussion... Strong low pressure (~995 mb) is located off the coast of southeast NC, with ~1028mb high pressure off to the NE of the local area. N/NE winds are gusting up to 50 kt in the vicinity of the main sfc low across from Hatteras southward and over the Pamlico sound. Locally, winds are ramping up now, with gusts to 35-40 kt being observed into our NE NC waters, with winds generally in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30-35 kt elsewhere. Seas are now up to 10-14 ft over the NE NC ocean zone, and 7-11 ft elsewhere. Waves in the Bay are 3-4 ft N, and 4-6 ft S. No major changes with respect to the forecast, but did add the NC ocean zones to a Storm Warning through this aftn for gusts to ~50 kt. The general consensus is that this core of the main sfc feature lingers down along the coast of SE NC/northern SC today and into tonight (not moving that far north given the placement underneath an upper low). However, diffluent flow aloft off the mid-Atlantic coast should allow the entire system to elongate, with a bit of a secondary low developing well to the NNE, along or just off the Delmarva coast by this evening. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, likely peaking this morning/early aftn across the coastal waters from VA Beach southward, then ramping up by late aftn into this evening farther north as the secondary sfc low deepens. Peak wind gusts will be up to 50 kt on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. One potential development is that some of the guidance shows another uptick in winds this evening (across the Bay) as they shift from NE to more of a due northerly direction in response to the secondary low off the Delmarva coast (this is still expected to peak in the ~45kt range for gusts so the Gale warnings remain as is). With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Latest tidal anomalies are ~ 2ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay and zones along the Ocean in SE VA/NE NC, tapered to ~1 foot farther north. As NE winds continue to increase through this morning, expect the rise in anomalies to continue, with little change to the expected water levels by the high tide cycle this aftn (perhaps coming in a few tenths lower in some spots). The high tide, occurring early this aftn along the Ocean, and through the later aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event, the possible exception being at Ocean City where the following tide late tonight could be slightly higher. Either way, widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the MD shore of the upper Bay so may issue an Advisory for that (though this could underperform as strong NE winds ensue). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. The current CFW covers the next 2 high tide cycles (through Monday morning), but some areas may need to be extended through Monday evening. Did not do this just yet given uncertainty in the precise evolution of the coastal system, and potential for some offshore component of the ind direction on Monday (to NNW), which could lower water levels. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-098- 525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-650-652-654- 656. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1248151 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 103 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area today, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast. Rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are all likely today. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast later this morning into the early evening hours. ~996 mb low pressure is centered SE of Cape Fear, NC as of 10:15 AM this morning. North of the low, a rain shield (of light to moderate intensity) extends northward into most of NC, central and southeast VA, and the lower MD Eastern Shore. Still mostly dry in our NW Piedmont counties, but expect light rain to overspread these locations soon. Temperatures range through the lower- mid 60s. The low will lift slowly northward toward the Carolina coast through the rest of this morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low is expected to develop offshore of the DelMarVa coast on the northeastern flank of the warm front by this afternoon. These two low centers are expected to interact with each other over the next 24 hrs or so, though the precise evolution of this still remain quite uncertain. Light rain will continue to increase in coverage for most of our forecast area today with PoPs 70-100%. By later this afternoon, the rain becomes less focused and more showery/drizzly as the remnant low lingers to our S and the offshore warm front pushes N and secondary low spin to our NE. Thus, PoPs begin to drop off, but remain 30-50% areawide into tonight. There has been a significant downward trend in rain totals with most areas seeing less than an inch. The best potential for 1-2" remains over SE VA and NE NC, but even these amounts are quite optimistic based on current radar trends and the latest CAMs. In terms of temps, went a few degrees below NBM given the widespread clouds and precip. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s. The main impacts remain the coastal hazards, in the form of wind and coastal flooding (see section below for more coastal flooding info). E-NE winds will increase substantially over the next few hours as the low inches N and will be greatest along and north of the leading edge of the coastal warm front. Peak winds occur later this morning into the early- mid afternoon for NE NC and SE VA, with the peak a bit later (this afternoon into the evening) for locations adjacent to the middle and northern Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Wind Advisories are in effect for most areas near and just inland from the coastline for gusts of 40-50 mph, with High Wind Warnings for those zones immediately bordering the ocean for gusts 50-55 mph (locally 60 mph). Note the High Wind Warning was expanded to coastal Currituck County a few hours ago, with it remaining in effect for VA Beach, Northampton and Accomack Counties on the VA Eastern Shore, and the MD beaches. Wind gusts inland average 25-35 mph. Breezy conditions persist into tonight as the winds turn to the N with the secondary low moving further NE. Heading into Monday, the evolution of the aforementioned lows will dictate the placement of precip. The highest coverage of lingering showers or drizzle is favored from the Northern Neck into the VA and MD Eastern Shore. QPF Monday should be quite light, generally a quarter inch or less. Skies average overcast or mostly cloudy closer to the coast, with some potential for breaks in the clouds in the I- 95 corridor and especially into the Piedmont. Highs again remain on the cooler side and in the mid-upper 60s. It will also remain on the breezy side with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. - Sunny and very pleasant Wednesday. The stagnant upper low (and remnant sfc lows) will be kicked well out to sea Tuesday by an approaching upper trough in SE Canada and a building ridge across the central CONUS. In general, guidance has trended a bit quicker with this evolution, with none of the deterministic runs lingering the low near the coast Tuesday (as some did show this yesterday). N-NW flow through the entire column will funnel drier air toward the region and comfortable/seasonable/dry wx is expected for most of the area. However, there will be some lingering clouds near the coast. High temperatures range from the upper 60s near the coast to around 70 F in the I-95 corridor to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Should the low and clouds clear quicker, these temps would end up being a bit warmer. Lows Tuesday night in the low-mid 50s. High pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, builds SE toward the region Wednesday. Therefore, expect a continuation of the dry conditions. Current indications are for a very nice day with highs temps in the 70s under a sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Much cooler Thursday behind a dry cold front. Otherwise, dry and seasonable to end the week. - Some frost potential exists Thursday night. The synoptic pattern heading into the later half of the week favors continued dry wx with a tall ridge axis extending through the Great Lakes region and a trough off the NE CONUS coast. At the surface, high pressure persists to our NW. Noticeably cooler air is expected by Thursday as a dry cold front slides through and a shortwave dives southward into New England. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. There is increasing potential for lows in the 30s inland Thursday night, with 40s at the immediate coast. Will need to keep an eye on any frost possibilities, as it`s that time of the year. A slow moderating trend in the temperatures begins Friday, with a more significant warmup possible by the weekend as a ridge axis approaches from the W. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 103 PM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this afternoon. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. The IFR CIGs are mainly W of the coastal terminals and closer to RIC. Widespread light to moderate rainfall continues to extend from NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the the rest of the afternoon and late evening as the low pressure system moves further N. By late this evening and early Monday morning, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle. Widespread IFR- LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds have increased throughout today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds gusts up to 40-45 kt have been noted. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt mid afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 1130 AM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Intense low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts north today, bringing strong Gale conditions for most, with Storm Warnings for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Storm Warnings for the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles have been converted to Gale Warnings. 997mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected S of Cape Charles hence the headline change. Previous Discussion... Strong low pressure (~995 mb) is located off the coast of southeast NC, with ~1028mb high pressure off to the NE of the local area. N/NE winds are gusting up to 50 kt in the vicinity of the main sfc low across from Hatteras southward and over the Pamlico sound. Locally, winds are ramping up now, with gusts to 35-40 kt being observed into our NE NC waters, with winds generally in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30-35 kt elsewhere. Seas are now up to 10-14 ft over the NE NC ocean zone, and 7-11 ft elsewhere. Waves in the Bay are 3-4 ft N, and 4-6 ft S. No major changes with respect to the forecast, but did add the NC ocean zones to a Storm Warning through this aftn for gusts to ~50 kt. The general consensus is that this core of the main sfc feature lingers down along the coast of SE NC/northern SC today and into tonight (not moving that far north given the placement underneath an upper low). However, diffluent flow aloft off the mid-Atlantic coast should allow the entire system to elongate, with a bit of a secondary low developing well to the NNE, along or just off the Delmarva coast by this evening. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, likely peaking this morning/early aftn across the coastal waters from VA Beach southward, then ramping up by late aftn into this evening farther north as the secondary sfc low deepens. Peak wind gusts will be up to 50 kt on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. One potential development is that some of the guidance shows another uptick in winds this evening (across the Bay) as they shift from NE to more of a due northerly direction in response to the secondary low off the Delmarva coast (this is still expected to peak in the ~45kt range for gusts so the Gale warnings remain as is). With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Latest tidal anomalies are ~ 2ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay and zones along the Ocean in SE VA/NE NC, tapered to ~1 foot farther north. As NE winds continue to increase through this morning, expect the rise in anomalies to continue, with little change to the expected water levels by the high tide cycle this aftn (perhaps coming in a few tenths lower in some spots). The high tide, occurring early this aftn along the Ocean, and through the later aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event, the possible exception being at Ocean City where the following tide late tonight could be slightly higher. Either way, widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the MD shore of the upper Bay so may issue an Advisory for that (though this could underperform as strong NE winds ensue). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. The current CFW covers the next 2 high tide cycles (through Monday morning), but some areas may need to be extended through Monday evening. Did not do this just yet given uncertainty in the precise evolution of the coastal system, and potential for some offshore component of the ind direction on Monday (to NNW), which could lower water levels. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-098- 525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-656. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Storm Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654. && $$ |
| #1248145 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1129 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area today, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast. Rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are all likely today. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast later this morning into the early evening hours. ~996 mb low pressure is centered SE of Cape Fear, NC as of 10:15 AM this morning. North of the low, a rain shield (of light to moderate intensity) extends northward into most of NC, central and southeast VA, and the lower MD Eastern Shore. Still mostly dry in our NW Piedmont counties, but expect light rain to overspread these locations soon. Temperatures range through the lower- mid 60s. The low will lift slowly northward toward the Carolina coast through the rest of this morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low is expected to develop offshore of the DelMarVa coast on the northeastern flank of the warm front by this afternoon. These two low centers are expected to interact with each other over the next 24 hrs or so, though the precise evolution of this still remain quite uncertain. Light rain will continue to increase in coverage for most of our forecast area today with PoPs 70-100%. By later this afternoon, the rain becomes less focused and more showery/drizzly as the remnant low lingers to our S and the offshore warm front pushes N and secondary low spin to our NE. Thus, PoPs begin to drop off, but remain 30-50% areawide into tonight. There has been a significant downward trend in rain totals with most areas seeing less than an inch. The best potential for 1-2" remains over SE VA and NE NC, but even these amounts are quite optimistic based on current radar trends and the latest CAMs. In terms of temps, went a few degrees below NBM given the widespread clouds and precip. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s. The main impacts remain the coastal hazards, in the form of wind and coastal flooding (see section below for more coastal flooding info). E-NE winds will increase substantially over the next few hours as the low inches N and will be greatest along and north of the leading edge of the coastal warm front. Peak winds occur later this morning into the early- mid afternoon for NE NC and SE VA, with the peak a bit later (this afternoon into the evening) for locations adjacent to the middle and northern Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Wind Advisories are in effect for most areas near and just inland from the coastline for gusts of 40-50 mph, with High Wind Warnings for those zones immediately bordering the ocean for gusts 50-55 mph (locally 60 mph). Note the High Wind Warning was expanded to coastal Currituck County a few hours ago, with it remaining in effect for VA Beach, Northampton and Accomack Counties on the VA Eastern Shore, and the MD beaches. Wind gusts inland average 25-35 mph. Breezy conditions persist into tonight as the winds turn to the N with the secondary low moving further NE. Heading into Monday, the evolution of the aforementioned lows will dictate the placement of precip. The highest coverage of lingering showers or drizzle is favored from the Northern Neck into the VA and MD Eastern Shore. QPF Monday should be quite light, generally a quarter inch or less. Skies average overcast or mostly cloudy closer to the coast, with some potential for breaks in the clouds in the I- 95 corridor and especially into the Piedmont. Highs again remain on the cooler side and in the mid-upper 60s. It will also remain on the breezy side with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. - Sunny and very pleasant Wednesday. The stagnant upper low (and remnant sfc lows) will be kicked well out to sea Tuesday by an approaching upper trough in SE Canada and a building ridge across the central CONUS. In general, guidance has trended a bit quicker with this evolution, with none of the deterministic runs lingering the low near the coast Tuesday (as some did show this yesterday). N-NW flow through the entire column will funnel drier air toward the region and comfortable/seasonable/dry wx is expected for most of the area. However, there will be some lingering clouds near the coast. High temperatures range from the upper 60s near the coast to around 70 F in the I-95 corridor to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Should the low and clouds clear quicker, these temps would end up being a bit warmer. Lows Tuesday night in the low-mid 50s. High pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, builds SE toward the region Wednesday. Therefore, expect a continuation of the dry conditions. Current indications are for a very nice day with highs temps in the 70s under a sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Much cooler Thursday behind a dry cold front. Otherwise, dry and seasonable to end the week. - Some frost potential exists Thursday night. The synoptic pattern heading into the later half of the week favors continued dry wx with a tall ridge axis extending through the Great Lakes region and a trough off the NE CONUS coast. At the surface, high pressure persists to our NW. Noticeably cooler air is expected by Thursday as a dry cold front slides through and a shortwave dives southward into New England. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. There is increasing potential for lows in the 30s inland Thursday night, with 40s at the immediate coast. Will need to keep an eye on any frost possibilities, as it`s that time of the year. A slow moderating trend in the temperatures begins Friday, with a more significant warmup possible by the weekend as a ridge axis approaches from the W. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this morning. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area this morning, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. The IFR CIGs are mainly W of the coastal terminals and closer to RIC. Widespread light to moderate rainfall also extends through NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the morning and most of today as the low pressure system moves further N. By later today, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle continuing into tonight. Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds will increase through morning hours today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds of 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt are expected later this morning into the first part of the afternoon. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt this afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 1130 AM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Intense low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts north today, bringing strong Gale conditions for most, with Storm Warnings for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Storm Warnings for the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles have been converted to Gale Warnings. 997mb low pressure off the southern NC coast has become occluded and is nearly stationary. A stationary front extends to the NE of this low with some pressure falls modeled along this boundary, but well E of the Delmarva coast. The pressure gradient remains strong and this is resulting in a gale force ENE wind for much of the area. However, with a lack of strong pressure falls locally storm force wind is no longer expected S of Cape Charles hence the headline change. Previous Discussion... Strong low pressure (~995 mb) is located off the coast of southeast NC, with ~1028mb high pressure off to the NE of the local area. N/NE winds are gusting up to 50 kt in the vicinity of the main sfc low across from Hatteras southward and over the Pamlico sound. Locally, winds are ramping up now, with gusts to 35-40 kt being observed into our NE NC waters, with winds generally in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30-35 kt elsewhere. Seas are now up to 10-14 ft over the NE NC ocean zone, and 7-11 ft elsewhere. Waves in the Bay are 3-4 ft N, and 4-6 ft S. No major changes with respect to the forecast, but did add the NC ocean zones to a Storm Warning through this aftn for gusts to ~50 kt. The general consensus is that this core of the main sfc feature lingers down along the coast of SE NC/northern SC today and into tonight (not moving that far north given the placement underneath an upper low). However, diffluent flow aloft off the mid-Atlantic coast should allow the entire system to elongate, with a bit of a secondary low developing well to the NNE, along or just off the Delmarva coast by this evening. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, likely peaking this morning/early aftn across the coastal waters from VA Beach southward, then ramping up by late aftn into this evening farther north as the secondary sfc low deepens. Peak wind gusts will be up to 50 kt on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. One potential development is that some of the guidance shows another uptick in winds this evening (across the Bay) as they shift from NE to more of a due northerly direction in response to the secondary low off the Delmarva coast (this is still expected to peak in the ~45kt range for gusts so the Gale warnings remain as is). With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Latest tidal anomalies are ~ 2ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay and zones along the Ocean in SE VA/NE NC, tapered to ~1 foot farther north. As NE winds continue to increase through this morning, expect the rise in anomalies to continue, with little change to the expected water levels by the high tide cycle this aftn (perhaps coming in a few tenths lower in some spots). The high tide, occurring early this aftn along the Ocean, and through the later aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event, the possible exception being at Ocean City where the following tide late tonight could be slightly higher. Either way, widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the MD shore of the upper Bay so may issue an Advisory for that (though this could underperform as strong NE winds ensue). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. The current CFW covers the next 2 high tide cycles (through Monday morning), but some areas may need to be extended through Monday evening. Did not do this just yet given uncertainty in the precise evolution of the coastal system, and potential for some offshore component of the ind direction on Monday (to NNW), which could lower water levels. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-098- 525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634-638-656. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Storm Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654. && $$ |
| #1248139 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1015 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area today, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast. Rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are all likely today. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast later this morning into the early evening hours. ~996 mb low pressure is centered SE of Cape Fear, NC as of 10:15 AM this morning. North of the low, a rain shield (of light to moderate intensity) extends northward into most of NC, central and southeast VA, and the lower MD Eastern Shore. Still mostly dry in our NW Piedmont counties, but expect light rain to overspread these locations soon. Temperatures range through the lower- mid 60s. The low will lift slowly northward toward the Carolina coast through the rest of this morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low is expected to develop offshore of the DelMarVa coast on the northeastern flank of the warm front by this afternoon. These two low centers are expected to interact with each other over the next 24 hrs or so, though the precise evolution of this still remain quite uncertain. Light rain will continue to increase in coverage for most of our forecast area today with PoPs 70-100%. By later this afternoon, the rain becomes less focused and more showery/drizzly as the remnant low lingers to our S and the offshore warm front pushes N and secondary low spin to our NE. Thus, PoPs begin to drop off, but remain 30-50% areawide into tonight. There has been a significant downward trend in rain totals with most areas seeing less than an inch. The best potential for 1-2" remains over SE VA and NE NC, but even these amounts are quite optimistic based on current radar trends and the latest CAMs. In terms of temps, went a few degrees below NBM given the widespread clouds and precip. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s. The main impacts remain the coastal hazards, in the form of wind and coastal flooding (see section below for more coastal flooding info). E-NE winds will increase substantially over the next few hours as the low inches N and will be greatest along and north of the leading edge of the coastal warm front. Peak winds occur later this morning into the early- mid afternoon for NE NC and SE VA, with the peak a bit later (this afternoon into the evening) for locations adjacent to the middle and northern Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Wind Advisories are in effect for most areas near and just inland from the coastline for gusts of 40-50 mph, with High Wind Warnings for those zones immediately bordering the ocean for gusts 50-55 mph (locally 60 mph). Note the High Wind Warning was expanded to coastal Currituck County a few hours ago, with it remaining in effect for VA Beach, Northampton and Accomack Counties on the VA Eastern Shore, and the MD beaches. Wind gusts inland average 25-35 mph. Breezy conditions persist into tonight as the winds turn to the N with the secondary low moving further NE. Heading into Monday, the evolution of the aforementioned lows will dictate the placement of precip. The highest coverage of lingering showers or drizzle is favored from the Northern Neck into the VA and MD Eastern Shore. QPF Monday should be quite light, generally a quarter inch or less. Skies average overcast or mostly cloudy closer to the coast, with some potential for breaks in the clouds in the I- 95 corridor and especially into the Piedmont. Highs again remain on the cooler side and in the mid-upper 60s. It will also remain on the breezy side with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. - Sunny and very pleasant Wednesday. The stagnant upper low (and remnant sfc lows) will be kicked well out to sea Tuesday by an approaching upper trough in SE Canada and a building ridge across the central CONUS. In general, guidance has trended a bit quicker with this evolution, with none of the deterministic runs lingering the low near the coast Tuesday (as some did show this yesterday). N-NW flow through the entire column will funnel drier air toward the region and comfortable/seasonable/dry wx is expected for most of the area. However, there will be some lingering clouds near the coast. High temperatures range from the upper 60s near the coast to around 70 F in the I-95 corridor to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Should the low and clouds clear quicker, these temps would end up being a bit warmer. Lows Tuesday night in the low-mid 50s. High pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, builds SE toward the region Wednesday. Therefore, expect a continuation of the dry conditions. Current indications are for a very nice day with highs temps in the 70s under a sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Much cooler Thursday behind a dry cold front. Otherwise, dry and seasonable to end the week. - Some frost potential exists Thursday night. The synoptic pattern heading into the later half of the week favors continued dry wx with a tall ridge axis extending through the Great Lakes region and a trough off the NE CONUS coast. At the surface, high pressure persists to our NW. Noticeably cooler air is expected by Thursday as a dry cold front slides through and a shortwave dives southward into New England. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. There is increasing potential for lows in the 30s inland Thursday night, with 40s at the immediate coast. Will need to keep an eye on any frost possibilities, as it`s that time of the year. A slow moderating trend in the temperatures begins Friday, with a more significant warmup possible by the weekend as a ridge axis approaches from the W. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this morning. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area this morning, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. The IFR CIGs are mainly W of the coastal terminals and closer to RIC. Widespread light to moderate rainfall also extends through NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the morning and most of today as the low pressure system moves further N. By later today, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle continuing into tonight. Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds will increase through morning hours today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds of 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt are expected later this morning into the first part of the afternoon. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt this afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Intense low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts north today, bringing strong Gale conditions for most, with Storm Warnings in effect for the Ocean and mouth of the Bay. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Strong low pressure (~995 mb) is located off the coast of southeast NC, with ~1028mb high pressure off to the NE of the local area. N/NE winds are gusting up to 50 kt in the vicinity of the main sfc low across from Hatteras southward and over the Pamlico sound. Locally, winds are ramping up now, with gusts to 35-40 kt being observed into our NE NC waters, with winds generally in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30-35 kt elsewhere. Seas are now up to 10-14 ft over the NE NC ocean zone, and 7-11 ft elsewhere. Waves in the Bay are 3-4 ft N, and 4-6 ft S. No major changes with respect to the forecast, but did add the NC ocean zones to a Storm Warning through this aftn for gusts to ~50 kt. The general consensus is that this core of the main sfc feature lingers down along the coast of SE NC/northern SC today and into tonight (not moving that far north given the placement underneath an upper low). However, diffluent flow aloft off the mid-Atlantic coast should allow the entire system to elongate, with a bit of a secondary low developing well to the NNE, along or just off the Delmarva coast by this evening. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, likely peaking this morning/early aftn across the coastal waters from VA Beach southward, then ramping up by late aftn into this evening farther north as the secondary sfc low deepens. Peak wind gusts will be up to 50 kt on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. One potential development is that some of the guidance shows another uptick in winds this evening (across the Bay) as they shift from NE to more of a due northerly direction in response to the secondary low off the Delmarva coast (this is still expected to peak in the ~45kt range for gusts so the Gale warnings remain as is). With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Latest tidal anomalies are ~ 2ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay and zones along the Ocean in SE VA/NE NC, tapered to ~1 foot farther north. As NE winds continue to increase through this morning, expect the rise in anomalies to continue, with little change to the expected water levels by the high tide cycle this aftn (perhaps coming in a few tenths lower in some spots). The high tide, occurring early this aftn along the Ocean, and through the later aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event, the possible exception being at Ocean City where the following tide late tonight could be slightly higher. Either way, widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the MD shore of the upper Bay so may issue an Advisory for that (though this could underperform as strong NE winds ensue). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. The current CFW covers the next 2 high tide cycles (through Monday morning), but some areas may need to be extended through Monday evening. Did not do this just yet given uncertainty in the precise evolution of the coastal system, and potential for some offshore component of the ind direction on Monday (to NNW), which could lower water levels. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-638. Storm Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Storm Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654-656. Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1248116 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 651 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area today, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast. Rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are all likely today. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast later this morning into the early evening hours. ~995 mb low pressure is centered about 75 miles SE of Cape Fear, NC as of 6:50 AM this morning. North of the low, a rain shield (of light to moderate intensity) extends northward into most of NC, central and southeast VA, and the lower MD Eastern Shore. Still mostly dry in our NW Piedmont counties, but expect light rain to overspread these locations soon. Temperatures range through the lower- mid 60s. The low will lift slowly northward toward the Carolina coast through the rest of this morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low is expected to develop offshore of the DelMarVa coast on the northeastern flank of the warm front by this afternoon. These two low centers are expected to interact with each other over the next 24 hrs or so, though the precise evolution of this still remain quite uncertain. Light rain will continue to increase in coverage for most of our forecast area today with PoPs 70-100%. By later this afternoon, the rain becomes less focused and more showery/drizzly as the remnant low lingers to our S and the offshore warm front pushes N and secondary low spin to our NE. Thus, PoPs begin to drop off, but remain 30-50% areawide into tonight. There has been a significant downward trend in rain totals with most areas seeing less than an inch. The best potential for 1-2" remains over SE VA and NE NC, but even these amounts are quite optimistic based on current radar trends and the latest CAMs. In terms of temps, went a few degrees below NBM given the widespread clouds and precip. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s. The main impacts remain the coastal hazards, in the form of wind and coastal flooding (see section below for more coastal flooding info). E-NE winds will increase substantially over the next few hours as the low inches N and will be greatest along and north of the leading edge of the coastal warm front. Peak winds occur later this morning into the early- mid afternoon for NE NC and SE VA, with the peak a bit later (this afternoon into the evening) for locations adjacent to the middle and northern Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Wind Advisories are in effect for most areas near and just inland from the coastline for gusts of 40-50 mph, with High Wind Warnings for those zones immediately bordering the ocean for gusts 50-55 mph (locally 60 mph). Note the High Wind Warning was expanded to coastal Currituck County a few hours ago, with it remaining in effect for VA Beach, Northampton and Accomack Counties on the VA Eastern Shore, and the MD beaches. Wind gusts inland average 25-35 mph. Breezy conditions persist into tonight as the winds turn to the N with the secondary low moving further NE. Heading into Monday, the evolution of the aforementioned lows will dictate the placement of precip. The highest coverage of lingering showers or drizzle is favored from the Northern Neck into the VA and MD Eastern Shore. QPF Monday should be quite light, generally a quarter inch or less. Skies average overcast or mostly cloudy closer to the coast, with some potential for breaks in the clouds in the I- 95 corridor and especially into the Piedmont. Highs again remain on the cooler side and in the mid-upper 60s. It will also remain on the breezy side with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. - Sunny and very pleasant Wednesday. The stagnant upper low (and remnant sfc lows) will be kicked well out to sea Tuesday by an approaching upper trough in SE Canada and a building ridge across the central CONUS. In general, guidance has trended a bit quicker with this evolution, with none of the deterministic runs lingering the low near the coast Tuesday (as some did show this yesterday). N-NW flow through the entire column will funnel drier air toward the region and comfortable/seasonable/dry wx is expected for most of the area. However, there will be some lingering clouds near the coast. High temperatures range from the upper 60s near the coast to around 70 F in the I-95 corridor to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Should the low and clouds clear quicker, these temps would end up being a bit warmer. Lows Tuesday night in the low-mid 50s. High pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, builds SE toward the region Wednesday. Therefore, expect a continuation of the dry conditions. Current indications are for a very nice day with highs temps in the 70s under a sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Much cooler Thursday behind a dry cold front. Otherwise, dry and seasonable to end the week. - Some frost potential exists Thursday night. The synoptic pattern heading into the later half of the week favors continued dry wx with a tall ridge axis extending through the Great Lakes region and a trough off the NE CONUS coast. At the surface, high pressure persists to our NW. Noticeably cooler air is expected by Thursday as a dry cold front slides through and a shortwave dives southward into New England. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. There is increasing potential for lows in the 30s inland Thursday night, with 40s at the immediate coast. Will need to keep an eye on any frost possibilities, as it`s that time of the year. A slow moderating trend in the temperatures begins Friday, with a more significant warmup possible by the weekend as a ridge axis approaches from the W. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this morning. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area this morning, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. The IFR CIGs are mainly W of the coastal terminals and closer to RIC. Widespread light to moderate rainfall also extends through NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the morning and most of today as the low pressure system moves further N. By later today, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle continuing into tonight. Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds will increase through morning hours today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds of 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt are expected later this morning into the first part of the afternoon. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt this afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Intense low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts north today, bringing strong Gale conditions for most, with Storm Warnings in effect for the Ocean and mouth of the Bay. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Strong low pressure (~995 mb) is located off the coast of southeast NC, with ~1028mb high pressure off to the NE of the local area. N/NE winds are gusting up to 50 kt in the vicinity of the main sfc low across from Hatteras southward and over the Pamlico sound. Locally, winds are ramping up now, with gusts to 35-40 kt being observed into our NE NC waters, with winds generally in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30-35 kt elsewhere. Seas are now up to 10-14 ft over the NE NC ocean zone, and 7-11 ft elsewhere. Waves in the Bay are 3-4 ft N, and 4-6 ft S. No major changes with respect to the forecast, but did add the NC ocean zones to a Storm Warning through this aftn for gusts to ~50 kt. The general consensus is that this core of the main sfc feature lingers down along the coast of SE NC/northern SC today and into tonight (not moving that far north given the placement underneath an upper low). However, diffluent flow aloft off the mid-Atlantic coast should allow the entire system to elongate, with a bit of a secondary low developing well to the NNE, along or just off the Delmarva coast by this evening. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, likely peaking this morning/early aftn across the coastal waters from VA Beach southward, then ramping up by late aftn into this evening farther north as the secondary sfc low deepens. Peak wind gusts will be up to 50 kt on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. One potential development is that some of the guidance shows another uptick in winds this evening (across the Bay) as they shift from NE to more of a due northerly direction in response to the secondary low off the Delmarva coast (this is still expected to peak in the ~45kt range for gusts so the Gale warnings remain as is). With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Latest tidal anomalies are ~ 2ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay and zones along the Ocean in SE VA/NE NC, tapered to ~1 foot farther north. As NE winds continue to increase through this morning, expect the rise in anomalies to continue, with little change to the expected water levels by the high tide cycle this aftn (perhaps coming in a few tenths lower in some spots). The high tide, occurring early this aftn along the Ocean, and through the later aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event, the possible exception being at Ocean City where the following tide late tonight could be slightly higher. Either way, widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the MD shore of the upper Bay so may issue an Advisory for that (though this could underperform as strong NE winds ensue). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. The current CFW covers the next 2 high tide cycles (through Monday morning), but some areas may need to be extended through Monday evening. Did not do this just yet given uncertainty in the precise evolution of the coastal system, and potential for some offshore component of the ind direction on Monday (to NNW), which could lower water levels. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-638. Storm Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Storm Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654-656. Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1248113 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 505 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area today, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast. Rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are all likely today. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast later this morning into the early evening hours. ~995 mb low pressure is centered about 100 miles SSE of Cape Fear, NC as of 3:30 AM this morning. North of the low, a rain shield (of light to moderate intensity) extends northward into most of NC and central and southeast VA. Mostly dry conditions still persist on the MD Eastern and in our NW Piedmont counties, but this should change soon. Temperatures range through the lower- mid 60s. The low will lift slowly northward toward the Carolina coast through the rest of this morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low is expected to develop offshore of the DelMarVa coast on the northeastern flank of the warm front by this afternoon. These two low centers are expected to interact with each other over the next 24 hrs or so, though the precise evolution of this still remain quite uncertain. Light rain will continue to increase in coverage for most of our forecast area today with PoPs 70-100%. By later this afternoon, the rain becomes less focused and more showery/drizzly as the remnant low lingers to our S and the offshore warm front pushes N and secondary low spin to our NE. Thus, PoPs begin to drop off, but remain 30-50% areawide into tonight. There has been a significant downward trend in rain totals with most areas seeing less than an inch. The best potential for 1-2" remains over SE VA and NE NC, but even these amounts are quite optimistic based on current radar trends and the latest CAMs. In terms of temps, went a few degrees below NBM given the widespread clouds and precip. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s. The main impacts remain the coastal hazards, in the form of wind and coastal flooding (see section below for more coastal flooding info). E-NE winds will increase substantially over the next few hours as the low inches N and will be greatest along and north of the leading edge of the coastal warm front. Peak winds occur from around sunrise into the early-mid afternoon for NE NC and SE VA, with the peak a bit later (this afternoon into the evening) for locations adjacent to the middle and northern Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Wind Advisories are in effect for most areas near and just inland from the coastline for gusts of 40-50 mph, with High Wind Warnings for those zones immediately bordering the ocean for gusts 50-55 mph (locally 60 mph). Note the High Wind Warning was expanded to coastal Currituck County a few hours ago, with it remaining in effect for VA Beach, Northampton and Accomack Counties on the VA Eastern Shore, and the MD beaches. Wind gusts inland average 25-35 mph. Breezy conditions persist into tonight as the winds turn to the N with the secondary low moving further NE. Heading into Monday, the evolution of the aforementioned lows will dictate the placement of precip. The highest coverage of lingering showers or drizzle is favored from the Northern Neck into the VA and MD Eastern Shore. QPF Monday should be quite light, generally a quarter inch or less. Skies average overcast or mostly cloudy closer to the coast, with some potential for breaks in the clouds in the I- 95 corridor and especially into the Piedmont. Highs again remain on the cooler side and in the mid-upper 60s. It will also remain on the breezy side with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. - Sunny and very pleasant Wednesday. The stagnant upper low (and remnant sfc lows) will be kicked well out to sea Tuesday by an approaching upper trough in SE Canada and a building ridge across the central CONUS. In general, guidance has trended a bit quicker with this evolution, with none of the deterministic runs lingering the low near the coast Tuesday (as some did show this yesterday). N-NW flow through the entire column will funnel drier air toward the region and comfortable/seasonable/dry wx is expected for most of the area. However, there will be some lingering clouds near the coast. High temperatures range from the upper 60s near the coast to around 70 F in the I-95 corridor to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Should the low and clouds clear quicker, these temps would end up being a bit warmer. Lows Tuesday night in the low-mid 50s. High pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, builds SE toward the region Wednesday. Therefore, expect a continuation of the dry conditions. Current indications are for a very nice day with highs temps in the 70s under a sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Much cooler Thursday behind a dry cold front. Otherwise, dry and seasonable to end the week. - Some frost potential exists Thursday night. The synoptic pattern heading into the later half of the week favors continued dry wx with a tall ridge axis extending through the Great Lakes region and a trough off the NE CONUS coast. At the surface, high pressure persists to our NW. Noticeably cooler air is expected by Thursday as a dry cold front slides through and a shortwave dives southward into New England. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. There is increasing potential for lows in the 30s inland Thursday night, with 40s at the immediate coast. Will need to keep an eye on any frost possibilities, as it`s that time of the year. A slow moderating trend in the temperatures begins Friday, with a more significant warmup possible by the weekend as a ridge axis approaches from the W. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this morning. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area this morning, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. Widespread light to moderate rainfall also extends through NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the morning and most of today as the low pressure system moves further N. By later today, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle continuing into at least the first part of tonight. Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds will increase through the early morning hours today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds of 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt are expected later this morning into the first part of the afternoon. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt this afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Key Messages: - Intense low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts north today, bringing strong Gale conditions for most, with Storm Warnings in effect for the Ocean and mouth of the Bay. - Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is slow to move away from the region, with high pressure gradually building in from the NW. Strong low pressure (~995 mb) is located off the coast of southeast NC, with ~1028mb high pressure off to the NE of the local area. N/NE winds are gusting up to 50 kt in the vicinity of the main sfc low across from Hatteras southward and over the Pamlico sound. Locally, winds are ramping up now, with gusts to 35-40 kt being observed into our NE NC waters, with winds generally in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30-35 kt elsewhere. Seas are now up to 10-14 ft over the NE NC ocean zone, and 7-11 ft elsewhere. Waves in the Bay are 3-4 ft N, and 4-6 ft S. No major changes with respect to the forecast, but did add the NC ocean zones to a Storm Warning through this aftn for gusts to ~50 kt. The general consensus is that this core of the main sfc feature lingers down along the coast of SE NC/northern SC today and into tonight (not moving that far north given the placement underneath an upper low). However, diffluent flow aloft off the mid-Atlantic coast should allow the entire system to elongate, with a bit of a secondary low developing well to the NNE, along or just off the Delmarva coast by this evening. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, likely peaking this morning/early aftn across the coastal waters from VA Beach southward, then ramping up by late aftn into this evening farther north as the secondary sfc low deepens. Peak wind gusts will be up to 50 kt on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. One potential development is that some of the guidance shows another uptick in winds this evening (across the Bay) as they shift from NE to more of a due northerly direction in response to the secondary low off the Delmarva coast (this is still expected to peak in the ~45kt range for gusts so the Gale warnings remain as is). With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 AM EDT Sunday.. Latest tidal anomalies are ~ 2ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay and zones along the Ocean in SE VA/NE NC, tapered to ~1 foot farther north. As NE winds continue to increase through this morning, expect the rise in anomalies to continue, with little change to the expected water levels by the high tide cycle this aftn (perhaps coming in a few tenths lower in some spots). The high tide, occurring early this aftn along the Ocean, and through the later aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event, the possible exception being at Ocean City where the following tide late tonight could be slightly higher. Either way, widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the MD shore of the upper Bay so may issue an Advisory for that (though this could underperform as strong NE winds ensue). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. The current CFW covers the next 2 high tide cycles (through Monday morning), but some areas may need to be extended through Monday evening. Did not do this just yet given uncertainty in the precise evolution of the coastal system, and potential for some offshore component of the ind direction on Monday (to NNW), which could lower water levels. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089- 090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-638. Storm Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Storm Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654-656. Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1248109 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 330 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area today, with a secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast. Rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are all likely today. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - A coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing rain, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast later this morning into the early evening hours. ~995 mb low pressure is centered about 100 miles SSE of Cape Fear, NC as of 3:30 AM this morning. North of the low, a rain shield (of light to moderate intensity) extends northward into most of NC and central and southeast VA. Mostly dry conditions still persist on the MD Eastern and in our NW Piedmont counties, but this should change soon. Temperatures range through the lower- mid 60s. The low will lift slowly northward toward the Carolina coast through the rest of this morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low is expected to develop offshore of the DelMarVa coast on the northeastern flank of the warm front by this afternoon. These two low centers are expected to interact with each other over the next 24 hrs or so, though the precise evolution of this still remain quite uncertain. Light rain will continue to increase in coverage for most of our forecast area today with PoPs 70-100%. By later this afternoon, the rain becomes less focused and more showery/drizzly as the remnant low lingers to our S and the offshore warm front pushes N and secondary low spin to our NE. Thus, PoPs begin to drop off, but remain 30-50% areawide into tonight. There has been a significant downward trend in rain totals with most areas seeing less than an inch. The best potential for 1-2" remains over SE VA and NE NC, but even these amounts are quite optimistic based on current radar trends and the latest CAMs. In terms of temps, went a few degrees below NBM given the widespread clouds and precip. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s. The main impacts remain the coastal hazards, in the form of wind and coastal flooding (see section below for more coastal flooding info). E-NE winds will increase substantially over the next few hours as the low inches N and will be greatest along and north of the leading edge of the coastal warm front. Peak winds occur from around sunrise into the early-mid afternoon for NE NC and SE VA, with the peak a bit later (this afternoon into the evening) for locations adjacent to the middle and northern Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Wind Advisories are in effect for most areas near and just inland from the coastline for gusts of 40-50 mph, with High Wind Warnings for those zones immediately bordering the ocean for gusts 50-55 mph (locally 60 mph). Note the High Wind Warning was expanded to coastal Currituck County a few hours ago, with it remaining in effect for VA Beach, Northampton and Accomack Counties on the VA Eastern Shore, and the MD beaches. Wind gusts inland average 25-35 mph. Breezy conditions persist into tonight as the winds turn to the N with the secondary low moving further NE. Heading into Monday, the evolution of the aforementioned lows will dictate the placement of precip. The highest coverage of lingering showers or drizzle is favored from the Northern Neck into the VA and MD Eastern Shore. QPF Monday should be quite light, generally a quarter inch or less. Skies average overcast or mostly cloudy closer to the coast, with some potential for breaks in the clouds in the I- 95 corridor and especially into the Piedmont. Highs again remain on the cooler side and in the mid-upper 60s. It will also remain on the breezy side with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits. - Sunny and very pleasant Wednesday. The stagnant upper low (and remnant sfc lows) will be kicked well out to sea Tuesday by an approaching upper trough in SE Canada and a building ridge across the central CONUS. In general, guidance has trended a bit quicker with this evolution, with none of the deterministic runs lingering the low near the coast Tuesday (as some did show this yesterday). N-NW flow through the entire column will funnel drier air toward the region and comfortable/seasonable/dry wx is expected for most of the area. However, there will be some lingering clouds near the coast. High temperatures range from the upper 60s near the coast to around 70 F in the I-95 corridor to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Should the low and clouds clear quicker, these temps would end up being a bit warmer. Lows Tuesday night in the low-mid 50s. High pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, builds SE toward the region Wednesday. Therefore, expect a continuation of the dry conditions. Current indications are for a very nice day with highs temps in the 70s under a sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Much cooler Thursday behind a dry cold front. Otherwise, dry and seasonable to end the week. - Some frost potential exists Thursday night. The synoptic pattern heading into the later half of the week favors continued dry wx with a tall ridge axis extending through the Great Lakes region and a trough off the NE CONUS coast. At the surface, high pressure persists to our NW. Noticeably cooler air is expected by Thursday as a dry cold front slides through and a shortwave dives southward into New England. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. There is increasing potential for lows in the 30s inland Thursday night, with 40s at the immediate coast. Will need to keep an eye on any frost possibilities, as it`s that time of the year. A slow moderating trend in the temperatures begins Friday, with a more significant warmup possible by the weekend as a ridge axis approaches from the W. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this morning. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area this morning, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. Widespread light to moderate rainfall also extends through NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the morning and most of today as the low pressure system moves further N. By later today, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle continuing into at least the first part of tonight. Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds will increase through the early morning hours today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds of 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt are expected later this morning into the first part of the afternoon. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt this afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday.. Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local waters through this evening. - Low pressure intensifies south of the area tonight. Gale and Storm Warnings go into effect later tonight through Sunday and Sunday night. Winds remain elevated Monday and Tuesday as the low is slow to move away from the region. Deepening 999mb low pressure is centered E of the GA/SC coast this afternoon. Meanwhile, 1026mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia, with another ~1026mb high centered well to the NW S of James Bay. The wind is ENE and ranges from ~15 kt across the northern Ches Bay and coastal waters to 15-25 kt from roughly Cape Charles to the south. Seas follow a similar pattern with 5-6 ft seas N and 6-8 ft from VA Beach southward. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with 3-5 ft near the mouth of the Bay. No major changes with respect to the overall evolution of the coastal low off the coast of GA/SC this aftn, which will track northward over or close to our waters later Sunday into Monday. While the exact evolution is still somewhat uncertain, there is decent agreement that the system lifts up along the Carolina coast late tonight/early Sunday and becomes elongated from SW to NE during the day Sunday and Sunday night. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, ramping up this evening with winds expected to peak across the region Sunday morning into early Monday. There remains high confidence for significant marine hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force for VA-MD Ocean waters) and dangerous seas. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50 kt on the VA-MD coastal waters and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Timing for the Storm Warnings in the ocean remains the same. However, the mouth of the Bay was extended through 7 PM to account for a slight uptick in 48kt probs later Sunday aftn. Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and NC coastal waters, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially early Wednesday but with winds slowly decreasing to high-end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax by mid week with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday.. Later tonight through Sunday, as NE winds rapidly increase, likely to Gale to local Storm force by early Sunday, a rapid rise in anomalies is expected (a surge increase of ~2-2.5 ft in ~12 hrs). The high tide cycle occurring late tonight into early Sunday is the lower astro tide, so even with a sharp increase, generally only minor flooding is expected during this period. The following high tide, occurring around noon Sunday along the Ocean, and through the aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event. Widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the Bay so some of the Warnings actually go into effect tonight (with the CFW product indicating the worst flooding to occur with the following cycle on Sunday). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. Precise water levels will be highly dependent on the track of the low and the associated wind direction, but confidence remains high this forecast cycle given better model agreement that a strong NE wind is likely to prevail through the Sunday tide cycle. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. Additional flooding is likely into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore (primarily from Bishops Head to Crisfield) through 7 PM where a ~1ft anomaly could push water levels to around minor flood thresholds late this aftn. The following high tide will be the lower astronomical with no tidal flooding expected for these locations late tonight/early Sunday morning. Additional flooding at these sites is possible later in the weekend and early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082-089-090- 093-095>098-523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ083>086-518- 520. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-638. Storm Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Storm Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656. Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1248098 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 148 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low tracks north toward the area this afternoon into tonight, passing nearby Sunday, and lingering offshore into Monday. Heavy rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are likely near the coast tonight and Sunday. The low moves away by Tuesday as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Dry and seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - A coastal storm impacts the region tonight into Sunday, bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast from late tonight through midday Sunday. Aloft, an upper level trough was located across the Southeast this evening with an upper level low moving into interior New England. At the surface, high pressure was located offshore of New England with a surface low developing off the Southeast coast. This low is expected to strengthen as it slowly lifts north tonight into early Sunday. Light rain has already moved into far SE VA/NE NC this evening and will continue to spread inland and north through the night. Given the widespread cloud cover, lows tonight in the low-mid 60s for most (upper 50s across the far NW) are expected. The majority of impacts from the coastal storm will occur tonight into Sunday. The low coastal will continue to strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas and advance northward toward the southern NC coastline. Model guidance since this mornings update has come into a better agreement. However, there still remains some uncertainty. There are still two different solutions that could potentially happen. The first solution would be the coastal low would continue to strengthen and move inland somewhere along the SE NC coastline. While the second scenario would be the low will occlude causing an additional low to form north off the coast of southern NE. This would create a bifurcated feature taking over by later Sunday and Monday. The first solution would be more impactful for our coastal area(especially in the wind and coastal flooding department). While the second solution would be impactful further north across NJ stretching into southern NE. Will note that the first solution does have better agreement from the models and ensembles. Not much has changed with the total QPF from this coastal low. Models continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall primarily east of the I-95 corridor. Rain amounts across the east would be between 1-2" While west of I-95 places could see around an inch or less. Latest Hi-res guidance does continue to have some heavier showers moving across SE VA/NE NC causing some isolated totals of 2-4". Will note that the High- res could be a tad bit aggressive but cannot rule out these possible higher totals. Nonetheless these rains will occur just before or around peak high tide across the coastal area. The high tide mix with the heaviest rainfall will potentially cause additional flooding. Winds will continue to increase this evening with the highest winds expected later tonight into tomorrow morning across NE NC/SE VA, shifting further north across the atlantic side of the VA/MD Eastern Shore by mid Sunday morning. Winds across NC coast, portions of the Northern Neck, and inland Worcester county will be between 25 to 35mph with gusts between 45 to 50 mph. Wind advisories will remain in effect for these areas. While across across VB, VA Eastern Shore and, the coastal beaches of Worcester county winds will be between 30 to 40mph with gusts upwards of 55mph. With the highest confidence of these areas seeing 55mph wind gusts High Wind Warnings have been issued. Overall, these winds could potentially cause tree and powerlines damage across the warned areas. Rain lingers through the rest of Sunday as the large low feature remains near the area, though the rain intensity should really drop off by the later afternoon and evening. The winds will also slowly subside, but remaining breezy to windy near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Coastal low lingers offshore Monday continuing chances for rain and breezy conditions. - Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits Tuesday. A additional upper level low is expected to be across portions of NE and will interact with the upper low/trough across the SE US. This will allow for a stagnant pattern and will allow the low to linger across just off shore. This will allow for breezy and wet weather conditions to continue along the coast. While most of the area will remain dry the highest concentration of Pops are across the VA/MD Eastern with Pops between 35 to 45%. Not much QPF is expected Monday with totals less than .25" across the MD/VA Eastern Shore. Highs Monday will be in the middle to upper 60s. By Tuesday an upper trough comes out of Canada and finally starts to move the system out of the area. While at the surface the area will be behind the coastal low and much drier air will be over the area. This will allow for partly cloudy skies and temperatures will be allowed to warm up into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and seasonable weather returns to the area by the end of next week. The overall Synoptic pattern going into next week is very optimal for dry and seasonable weather to return to the area. A tall ridge will be centered over the portions of the Great Lakes region with a trough located just off the NE Coast. This pattern favors sfc high pressure N and NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front. Highs will be in the low 70s across VA/NC and upper 60s across the MD Eastern Shore. Then by Thursday the dry cold front will push through the area helping to bring in much cooler air. Highs Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night temperatures will plummet into the low 40s with the possibility of upper 30s across the MD Eastern Shore and the far NW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this morning. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area this morning, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. Widespread light to moderate rainfall also extends through NE NC and into central and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the morning and most of today as the low pressure system moves further N. By later today, the nature of precip should become rather light, with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle continuing into at least the first part of tonight. Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs are also expected areawide tonight. Winds will increase through the early morning hours today as the pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds of 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt are expected later this morning into the first part of the afternoon. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt this afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this evening and tonight. Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday.. Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local waters through this evening. - Low pressure intensifies south of the area tonight. Gale and Storm Warnings go into effect later tonight through Sunday and Sunday night. Winds remain elevated Monday and Tuesday as the low is slow to move away from the region. Deepening 999mb low pressure is centered E of the GA/SC coast this afternoon. Meanwhile, 1026mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia, with another ~1026mb high centered well to the NW S of James Bay. The wind is ENE and ranges from ~15 kt across the northern Ches Bay and coastal waters to 15-25 kt from roughly Cape Charles to the south. Seas follow a similar pattern with 5-6 ft seas N and 6-8 ft from VA Beach southward. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with 3-5 ft near the mouth of the Bay. No major changes with respect to the overall evolution of the coastal low off the coast of GA/SC this aftn, which will track northward over or close to our waters later Sunday into Monday. While the exact evolution is still somewhat uncertain, there is decent agreement that the system lifts up along the Carolina coast late tonight/early Sunday and becomes elongated from SW to NE during the day Sunday and Sunday night. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, ramping up this evening with winds expected to peak across the region Sunday morning into early Monday. There remains high confidence for significant marine hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force for VA-MD Ocean waters) and dangerous seas. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50 kt on the VA-MD coastal waters and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Timing for the Storm Warnings in the ocean remains the same. However, the mouth of the Bay was extended through 7 PM to account for a slight uptick in 48kt probs later Sunday aftn. Peak wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and NC coastal waters, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale Warnings are in effect. With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially early Wednesday but with winds slowly decreasing to high-end SCA levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax by mid week with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday.. Later tonight through Sunday, as NE winds rapidly increase, likely to Gale to local Storm force by early Sunday, a rapid rise in anomalies is expected (a surge increase of ~2-2.5 ft in ~12 hrs). The high tide cycle occurring late tonight into early Sunday is the lower astro tide, so even with a sharp increase, generally only minor flooding is expected during this period. The following high tide, occurring around noon Sunday along the Ocean, and through the aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event. Widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the Bay so some of the Warnings actually go into effect tonight (with the CFW product indicating the worst flooding to occur with the following cycle on Sunday). The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. Precise water levels will be highly dependent on the track of the low and the associated wind direction, but confidence remains high this forecast cycle given better model agreement that a strong NE wind is likely to prevail through the Sunday tide cycle. The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely. Additional flooding is likely into at least Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore (primarily from Bishops Head to Crisfield) through 7 PM where a ~1ft anomaly could push water levels to around minor flood thresholds late this aftn. The following high tide will be the lower astronomical with no tidal flooding expected for these locations late tonight/early Sunday morning. Additional flooding at these sites is possible later in the weekend and early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-525. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082-089-090- 093-095>098-523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ083>086-518- 520. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523. High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-638. Storm Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Storm Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656. Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. && $$ |
