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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1252917 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1011 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler and drier conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least the middle of next week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday into Monday with a better chance of more widespread rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 AM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Cooler and breezy today with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Latest surface analysis depicted an occluding area of low pressure tracking into Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front off the Southeast coast. WNW winds were gusting to 15-25 mph. Temperatures as of 10 AM were in the mid 40s to upper 40s with central portions of the area under mostly clear skies (some cirrus was noted across NW and SE portions of the FA). Much cooler, partly cloudy, and breezy today given the pressure gradient between the strong low well to our north and high pressure over the Plains. Given that temps were warmer than model guidance and cloud cover doesn`t appear to be thick enough over the next few hours to hinder surface heating, have raised high temps closer to NBM 75th percentile and now have highs in the upper 40s NW and mid 50s SE. Additionally, breezy conditions are expected this afternoon with WNW winds gusting to 15-25 mph. The high builds toward the area tonight but remains well to our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives, dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While radiational cooling conditions won`t quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid 20s-lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Even cooler with a bit more wind on Friday (gusts to 20-35 mph, highest NE). - Quite cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday. Much cooler weather continues on Friday as deep upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS as the strong (1032-1036 mb) surface high builds toward the central Appalachians. Highs on Friday will only be in the lower to mid 40s, and the wind will actually be stronger than today in the wake of the above mentioned secondary CAA surge. Gusts to 20-35 mph are expected (highest on the eastern shore). The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and rural areas of central, south-central, and southeast VA. Lower 20s are expected elsewhere (inland) as winds become light and skies remain clear. Lows at the immediate coast (e.g. Norfolk/VA Beach) will be in the upper 20s-30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through mid week. - Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM. Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. It will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate on Sunday given how dry the antecedent airmass will be. Light rain likely reaches the Piedmont/I-95 Corridor by the aftn, with a better chc of light rain for the rest of the area Sunday night-Monday AM. Highs will still struggle to get out of the 40s in the Piedmont on Sunday, with lower 50s along the I-95 Corridor, and mid 50s-lower 60s farther east. Mostly cloudy, cooler, and mainly dry on Monday with mid to upper 40s expected. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into early Wed. The 00z/27 model/ensemble guidance has continue to trend warmer and farther north with the low track. That, combined with a lack of a cold air source, leads to very low confidence in any wintry precip. Still can`t completely rule out a brief period of light snow or freezing rain NW of the RIC Metro Monday night/Tuesday AM before a changeover to plain rain. The NBM probs for 1" of snow and 0.01" of freezing rain continue to be ~10% across NW portions of the FA. Given that this is still day 5/6, have kept a rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, and an explicit mention of freezing rain most likely would be added to the forecast only if confidence increases. Rain tapers off by early Wed with cool conditions continuing through at least mid-week. Highs likely won`t get out of the 40s across much of the area on Tue/Wed. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 545 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected through the 12z/27 forecast period at all sites. A strong cold front has pushed south of the area, with WNW winds of 5-10 kt. WNW winds increase to 10-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt during the day today. Mid and high level clouds increase over western portions of the area later this morning into this aftn (but remaining VFR). VFR tonight with clear skies outside of high clouds and a WNW wind of 5-10 kt. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday night. Breezier conditions are expected Friday with a WNW wind of 12-18 kt gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds expected. && .MARINE... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through early this morning as winds remain elevated behind a cold front. - Winds decrease below SCA criteria later this morning and afternoon, but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with a few gale force gusts, tonight into Friday morning and again Friday night. NW winds have increased to 15-25 kt behind a cold front this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of the NC/VA border through 7 AM. The SCA for the rivers drops off a bit earlier...at 4 AM...as winds should decrease faster there. Benign marine wx makes a brief return later this morning and afternoon before another increase in winds to 15-25 kt this evening through most of Friday and Friday night. Cold air advection will be maximized early Friday morning as a potent upper- level disturbance moves through, which should allow for occasional 30-35 kt wind gusts across the waters. Probabilities for frequent Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (less than 10%); therefore, no Gale Warnings are anticipated at this time. However, additional SCAs will be needed once the current headlines drop off this morning. Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime hours Friday, with another surge possible Friday night given pressure rises of ~5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with some potential for 4 ft waves late tonight and again Friday night. High pressure moves overhead Saturday with a light northerly wind expected. Another cold front will then approach from the W Sunday as the high shifts offshore, bringing a wind shift to the S. While gusts upward of 20 kt are possible, SCAs appear unlikely. A brief period of SCAs are then possible late Sunday night into Monday morning in the post-frontal, northerly wind regime. Uncertainty then increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind direction and speed is of low confidence at this point. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1252902 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 548 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler and drier conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least the middle of next week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday into Monday with a better chance of more widespread rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Cooler and breezy today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Latest surface analysis shows strong low pressure tracking from Ontario to Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front now just to our southeast. WNW winds are gusting to 20-25 mph as CAA ensues following the FROPA. Temperatures are in the mid 40s-50s, but will drop into the 30s-lower 40s by sunrise. Much cooler and partly to mostly sunny/breezy today as there will still be a gradient between the strong low well to our north and high pressure over the Plains. Highs will only reach the upper 40s-lower 50s with a WNW wind with gusts to 20-25 mph. The high builds toward the area tonight but remains well to our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives, dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While radiational cooling conditions won`t quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid 20s-lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Even cooler with a bit more wind on Friday (gusts to 20-35 mph, highest NE). - Quite cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday. Much cooler weather continues on Friday as deep upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS as the strong (1032-1036 mb) surface high builds toward the central Appalachians. Highs on Friday will only be in the lower to mid 40s, and the wind will actually be stronger than today in the wake of the above mentioned secondary CAA surge. Gusts to 20-35 mph are expected (highest on the eastern shore). The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and rural areas of central, south-central, and southeast VA. Lower 20s are expected elsewhere (inland) as winds become light and skies remain clear. Lows at the immediate coast (e.g. Norfolk/VA Beach) will be in the upper 20s-30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through mid week. - Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM. Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. It will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate on Sunday given how dry the antecedent airmass will be. Light rain likely reaches the Piedmont/I-95 Corridor by the aftn, with a better chc of light rain for the rest of the area Sunday night-Monday AM. Highs will still struggle to get out of the 40s in the Piedmont on Sunday, with lower 50s along the I-95 Corridor, and mid 50s-lower 60s farther east. Mostly cloudy, cooler, and mainly dry on Monday with mid to upper 40s expected. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into early Wed. The 00z/27 model/ensemble guidance has continue to trend warmer and farther north with the low track. That, combined with a lack of a cold air source, leads to very low confidence in any wintry precip. Still can`t completely rule out a brief period of light snow or freezing rain NW of the RIC Metro Monday night/Tuesday AM before a changeover to plain rain. The NBM probs for 1" of snow and 0.01" of freezing rain continue to be ~10% across NW portions of the FA. Given that this is still day 5/6, have kept a rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, and an explicit mention of freezing rain most likely would be added to the forecast only if confidence increases. Rain tapers off by early Wed with cool conditions continuing through at least mid-week. Highs likely won`t get out of the 40s across much of the area on Tue/Wed. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 545 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected through the 12z/27 forecast period at all sites. A strong cold front has pushed south of the area, with WNW winds of 5-10 kt. WNW winds increase to 10-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt during the day today. Mid and high level clouds increase over western portions of the area later this morning into this aftn (but remaining VFR). VFR tonight with clear skies outside of high clouds and a WNW wind of 5-10 kt. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday night. Breezier conditions are expected Friday with a WNW wind of 12-18 kt gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds expected. && .MARINE... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through early this morning as winds remain elevated behind a cold front. - Winds decrease below SCA criteria later this morning and afternoon, but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with a few gale force gusts, tonight into Friday morning and again Friday night. NW winds have increased to 15-25 kt behind a cold front this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of the NC/VA border through 7 AM. The SCA for the rivers drops off a bit earlier...at 4 AM...as winds should decrease faster there. Benign marine wx makes a brief return later this morning and afternoon before another increase in winds to 15-25 kt this evening through most of Friday and Friday night. Cold air advection will be maximized early Friday morning as a potent upper- level disturbance moves through, which should allow for occasional 30-35 kt wind gusts across the waters. Probabilities for frequent Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (less than 10%); therefore, no Gale Warnings are anticipated at this time. However, additional SCAs will be needed once the current headlines drop off this morning. Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime hours Friday, with another surge possible Friday night given pressure rises of ~5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with some potential for 4 ft waves late tonight and again Friday night. High pressure moves overhead Saturday with a light northerly wind expected. Another cold front will then approach from the W Sunday as the high shifts offshore, bringing a wind shift to the S. While gusts upward of 20 kt are possible, SCAs appear unlikely. A brief period of SCAs are then possible late Sunday night into Monday morning in the post-frontal, northerly wind regime. Uncertainty then increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind direction and speed is of low confidence at this point. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1252895 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 212 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler and drier conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least the middle of next week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday into Monday with a better chance of more widespread rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Cooler and breezy today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Latest surface analysis shows strong low pressure tracking from Ontario to Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front now just to our southeast. WNW winds are gusting to 20-25 mph as CAA ensues following the FROPA. Temperatures are in the mid 40s-50s, but will drop into the 30s-lower 40s by sunrise. Much cooler and partly to mostly sunny/breezy today as there will still be a gradient between the strong low well to our north and high pressure over the Plains. Highs will only reach the upper 40s-lower 50s with a WNW wind with gusts to 20-25 mph. The high builds toward the area tonight but remains well to our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives, dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While radiational cooling conditions won`t quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid 20s-lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Even cooler with a bit more wind on Friday (gusts to 20-35 mph, highest NE). - Quite cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday. Much cooler weather continues on Friday as deep upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS as the strong (1032-1036 mb) surface high builds toward the central Appalachians. Highs on Friday will only be in the lower to mid 40s, and the wind will actually be stronger than today in the wake of the above mentioned secondary CAA surge. Gusts to 20-35 mph are expected (highest on the eastern shore). The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and rural areas of central, south-central, and southeast VA. Lower 20s are expected elsewhere (inland) as winds become light and skies remain clear. Lows at the immediate coast (e.g. Norfolk/VA Beach) will be in the upper 20s-30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through mid week. - Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM. Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. It will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate on Sunday given how dry the antecedent airmass will be. Light rain likely reaches the Piedmont/I-95 Corridor by the aftn, with a better chc of light rain for the rest of the area Sunday night-Monday AM. Highs will still struggle to get out of the 40s in the Piedmont on Sunday, with lower 50s along the I-95 Corridor, and mid 50s-lower 60s farther east. Mostly cloudy, cooler, and mainly dry on Monday with mid to upper 40s expected. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into early Wed. The 00z/27 model/ensemble guidance has continue to trend warmer and farther north with the low track. That, combined with a lack of a cold air source, leads to very low confidence in any wintry precip. Still can`t completely rule out a brief period of light snow or freezing rain NW of the RIC Metro Monday night/Tuesday AM before a changeover to plain rain. The NBM probs for 1" of snow and 0.01" of freezing rain continue to be ~10% across NW portions of the FA. Given that this is still day 5/6, have kept a rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, and an explicit mention of freezing rain most likely would be added to the forecast only if confidence increases. Rain tapers off by early Wed with cool conditions continuing through at least mid-week. Highs likely won`t get out of the 40s across much of the area on Tue/Wed. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1215 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected through the 06z/27 forecast period at all sites. A strong cold front will move south of the terminals before sunrise, with WNW winds of 10-12 kt in its wake, gusting to ~20 kt. The breezy WNW winds persist through the day today. Mid and high level clouds increase over western portions of the area later this morning into this aftn (but remaining VFR). VFR tonight with clear skies outside of high clouds and a WNW wind of 5-10 kt. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday night. Breezier conditions are expected Friday with a WNW wind of 12-18 kt gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds expected. && .MARINE... As of 210 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through early this morning as winds remain elevated behind a cold front. - Winds decrease below SCA criteria later this morning and afternoon, but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with a few gale force gusts, tonight into Friday morning and again Friday night. NW winds have increased to 15-25 kt behind a cold front this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of the NC/VA border through 7 AM. The SCA for the rivers drops off a bit earlier...at 4 AM...as winds should decrease faster there. Benign marine wx makes a brief return later this morning and afternoon before another increase in winds to 15-25 kt this evening through most of Friday and Friday night. Cold air advection will be maximized early Friday morning as a potent upper- level disturbance moves through, which should allow for occasional 30-35 kt wind gusts across the waters. Probabilities for frequent Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (less than 10%); therefore, no Gale Warnings are anticipated at this time. However, additional SCAs will be needed once the current headlines drop off this morning. Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime hours Friday, with another surge possible Friday night given pressure rises of ~5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with some potential for 4 ft waves late tonight and again Friday night. High pressure moves overhead Saturday with a light northerly wind expected. Another cold front will then approach from the W Sunday as the high shifts offshore, bringing a wind shift to the S. While gusts upward of 20 kt are possible, SCAs appear unlikely. A brief period of SCAs are then possible late Sunday night into Monday morning in the post-frontal, northerly wind regime. Uncertainty then increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind direction and speed is of low confidence at this point. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633-635>638. && $$ |
| #1252879 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1215 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler and drier conditions arrive behind a cold front tonight and persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least mid week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday with rain chances continuing through Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 900 PM EST Wednesday... Key Message: - Cooler and breezy tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Latest surface analysis depicted an occluded low over the Great Lakes with a cold front pushing into the western half of the forecast area. The cold front is progged to cross the area from west to east tonight as the low over the upper Midwest tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Winds become WNW/W with gusts up to 20-25 mph behind the front tonight. Winds gradually taper off late tonight with lows in the 30s (mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40F closer to the coast). Mostly clear skies are expected through the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Much cooler and breezy on Thanksgiving Day and Friday. - Very cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday. Much cooler weather is expected on Thanksgiving Day and Friday as deep upper troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS with a ~1036 mb high pressure building into the Plains. The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. Highs Thu will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with breezy W/WNW winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Thursday night will be colder with lows falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s. With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of a breeze, so radiational cooling conditions won`t be quite ideal (but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri morning, leading to the lows in the 20s for a decent portion of the FA). Friday will be the coldest day of the period with continued breezy WNW winds with gusts up to 25-30 mph (highest across the Eastern Shore) and highs only in the lower-mid 40s. It will feel even colder (given the wind) with wind chills never reaching above the 30s for most (if not all) of the area. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland) as winds become light and skies remain clear. Lows will be warmer along the coast with lows around 30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through mid week. - Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM. Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. Light rain is possible Sun into Mon as that system drags a cold front through the area. Sun is the "warmest" day of the extended with highs in the 50s to lower 60s across the SE half of the FA and mid- upper 40s across the NW half. Confidence is increasing in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into early Wed. However, given the lack of a strong cold air source, confidence is low in any wintry precip. The 12z guidance has trended stronger with the shortwave, which would result in a warmer solution for the local area. As such, most model guidance has backed off of the potential for wintry precip and now shows predominantly rain with the potential for a brief period of freezing rain across the NW Piedmont before a changeover to plain rain. The NBM probs for 0.01" of freezing rain were ~10% across the NW Piedmont with nearly the same probs for 1" of snow. Given that this is still day 6/7, have kept a rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, but confidence is low and any wintry weather may very well end up being a brief period of light freezing rain before a changeover to plain rain. Rain tapers off by early Wed with cool conditions continuing through at least mid-week. Highs in the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE Mon, around 40F NW to upper 50s SE Tue, and 40s (locally lower 50s across far SE VA/NE NC) are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1215 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected through the 06z/27 forecast period at all sites. A strong cold front will move south of the terminals before sunrise, with WNW winds of 10-12 kt in its wake, gusting to ~20 kt. The breezy WNW winds persist through the day today. Mid and high level clouds increase over western portions of the area later this morning into this aftn (but remaining VFR). VFR tonight with clear skies outside of high clouds and a WNW wind of 5-10 kt. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday night. Breezier conditions are expected Friday with a WNW wind of 12-18 kt gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds expected. && .MARINE... As of 305 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for all zones but the NC coastal waters. - Winds drop off just below SCA criteria Thursday, but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with a few gale force gusts over the northern coastal waters Thursday night into Friday. The latest WX analysis shows a cold front approaching from the W, and this will cross the waters this evening from NW to SE, shifting the winds to the WNW as drier, colder air to rushes in. Despite the cool water temperatures, the change in airmass will be great enough to result in an uptick in winds later this evening. SCAs are now in effect for all but the NC coastal waters for WNW winds of 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, generally highest on the Bay and coastal waters from Cape Charles northward. The offshore wind direction will only allow seas to build to 4-5 ft offshore, with waves in the Bay 3-4ft. The pressure gradient will relax a bit during the day on Thursday as the low pressure system moves further into interior Canada. Winds will still be breezy, but come down to 10-15kt with gusts to ~20 kt. This will be a brief dip as a secondary surge of stronger CAA pushes in overnight Thursday into Friday. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25kt w/ gusts to 30 kt after sunset Thursday and staying elevated through Friday before subsiding Friday night as high pressure nudges into the region. Another round of more solid SCAs will be likely for most, if not all, of the local waters during this timeframe. Can`t totally rule out an occasional gust to gale force (34kt), mainly across the northern coastal waters, though local wind probabilities are keeping the likelihood of that at less than 20% so did not go with any Gale Watches. Marine conditions will become benign to start the weekend as high pressure builds in. Waves in the Bay will drop back to 1 foot Sat aftn, as seas drop to ~ 2ft. The next weather system moves in late Sunday into Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633-635>638. && $$ |
