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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Taunton (Boston), MA (Boston/Cape Cod Area) Selection: |
| #1261625 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 06.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Becoming more confident in springtime warmth, especially Tuesday, along with the potential for minor river flooding next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Black ice could lead to slippery travel through Saturday, before turning milder this weekend with a few passing showers Saturday night into early Sunday morning. - Springtime warmth next week may lead to minor river flooding from melting snow, but we also need to watch a backdoor front to the north, which could bring cooler temperatures Wed-Thu. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Black ice could lead to slippery travel through Saturday, before turning milder this weekend with a few passing showers Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Be aware that despite clouds hanging tough tonight, residual moisture and temperatures dropping near or below freezing could produce areas of black ice over more of southern New England, which may last into Saturday morning. We also can`t rule out some spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle, but at this point we don`t have the confidence that it will be widespread enough to justify another round of Winter Weather Advisories. For now we issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential, and if it becomes more likely, then Advisories can be issued this evening. Otherwise, the weekend will feature milder temperatures, especially on Sunday as upper heights rise over region with increasing SW flow and we lose the low cloud cover a bit. Forecast soundings continue to show a deeply saturated environment which should keep clouds locked in on Saturday. A weak and fast moving low pressure system is expected to pass through New England Saturday night into Sunday morning and may bring a few showers, but rainfall amounts will not be impactful. KEY MESSAGE 2...Springtime warmth next week may lead to minor river flooding from melting snow, but we also need to watch a backdoor front to the north, which could bring cooler temperatures Wed-Thu. Warmer weather looks to peak Tuesday when many areas will see highs well into 60s, if not the first 70-degree temperatures of the season in a a few locations. This is in response to the well advertised pattern change showing the subtropical ridge building to our south, but we are still close enough to northern stream to bring a few showers from time to time, most notably in Wed-Thu timeframe. Main concern is the potential for minor river flooding per ensemble forecasts (now in 20-40% probability range) starting with smaller rivers sometime Mon-Tue and larger mainstem rivers such as the Connecticut later in week (Thu-Fri). Many areas still have a deep and water-loaded snowpack with depths as high as 10 to 20 inches and water content of 3 to 6 inches. One thing we do have to watch is a backdoor cold front which may drop south into the region Wed-Thu (maybe as early as late Tue?). Looks like a classic spring setup with strong high pressure over eastern Canada. This may bring much cooler temperatures but there is a fair amount of disagreement among long range guidance in whether or not the front remains to our north (keeping us warm) or pushes south and brings cooler temperatures. As mentioned previously, it could be a typical situation where we have a very large temperature difference between northeast MA and southwest CT. We do see a cold front moving through by the end of the week, however, which should bring some showers and an end to the early spring warmth, but nothing unusually cold, more like average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Moderate confidence (40%). Fairly confident in widespread IFR/LIFR conditions through Saturday. Uncertainty revolves around extent of -DZ/-FZDZ and BR/FG through Saturday morning, but we`re starting to see light precipitation expand on coverage on radar, so conditions could lower quicker than forecast. Once conditions come down, however, we are unlikely to see improvement until Saturday, and even then it will be slow at best. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions could lower faster than forecast but am more confident in trends starting at 23z. Could see very brief -FZDZ but temperatures should stay just above freezing through the night. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions could lower faster than forecast but am more confident in trends starting at 01z. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA, patchy BR. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the weekend. SCAs remain posted for lingering NE 25-30kt gusts into the evening, and a bit longer for the outer waters before seas where seas probably won`t subside below 5 ft through the weekend. Patchy fog and drizzle will linger through tonight, then we should see improving conditions Saturday as weak low pressure passes farther out to sea. Winds become S/SW over weekend before another weak and fast moving low crosses New England Sunday. This should bring another round of 25kt gusts to most of the waters. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1261616 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 AM 06.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 803 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Wintry mix ending this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Slippery travel still possible this morning before temperatures slowly rise above freezing, but black ice may be a concern tonight. - Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and with risk for showers Sat night into early Sun. - Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Slippery travel still possible this morning before temperatures slowly rise above freezing, but black ice may be a concern tonight. Winter Weather Advisories remain posted until noon. Back edge of wintry mix was moving off coast and should be over by 10 am. Weak low that passed offshore shifted winds to N and caused temperatures to quickly drop below freezing roughly as far south Hartford, Providence, and Taunton, and coincided with morning commute. Travel conditions will improve slowly, but it may take much of the morning north of the Mass Pike for temps to rise above freezing. Be aware that despite clouds hanging tough tonight, residual moisture and temperatures dropping near or below freezing could produce areas of black ice over more of southern New England. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and with risk for showers Sat night into early Sun. A mid-level ridge/surface high moves into the western Atlantic this weekend directing milder S-SW flow into the region. While mid level temperatures surge (850mb temps as high as 13C) poor mixing with an inversion just off the deck will keep us from tapping into the truly mild temps. Even so, compared to highs in the low to mid 30s on Friday, Saturday will be warmer simply thanks to the winds at the surface flipping from NE to S/SW. Expect a cloudy day with highs in the mid 40s. A cold front then swings through Sunday, and out ahead of that the combination of a 50-60 kts LLJ and a 1.25"+ PWAT plume will lead to scattered light showers. The best consensus for timing is overnight Saturday but still need to get some higher resolution guidance to increase confidence, as some guidance wants to keep shower chances around through the day on Sunday. The best chance for this is southeast MA/coastal RI. For now sticking with thinking that showers and clouds clear out later Sunday allowing temps to further increase well into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. The warm advection pattern continues through at least Tuesday before our next frontal system brings rain and colder temps mid week. We continue to see signals for highs well into the 60s by Tuesday but, as is fairly typical this time of year, a high pressure over eastern Canada may send a back door cold front into SNE around late Tuesday. This has the potential to spoil the warm temperatures early, especially for northeast MA. It could be a situation where we have a very large temperature gradient between northeast MA and southwest CT. Either way, confidence is higher that a cold front moves through with precipitation and a cooler airmass around Wednesday. Before that, though, increased temps and dewpoints will lead to significant loss of our snowpack, so will have to monitor for rises on rivers and streams. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today...High confidence. IFR/LIFR conditions dominate today. The threat of accumulating snow/sleet across north central and northeast MA will come to an end by 13z/14z. Meanwhile...south of I-90 in the lower elevation, ptype mainly will be rain but some sleet may be mixed in at times. All precipitation tapers to mainly spotty light rain/drizzle by mid- late morning. However...IFR/LIFR conditions likely persist along with areas of fog due to continued onshore flow. Any spotty freezing drizzle will mainly be confined to the highest terrain by late morning and afternoon. NE winds 5 to 15 knots with some 20-25 knot gusts possible near the coast and up to 30 knots or so for parts of the outer-Cape and Nantucket. Tonight...High confidence. IFR-LIFR persist. Winds slacken, but remain NE. Areas of spotty light rain/drizzle and fog persist at times. We may have to watch for spotty freezing drizzle/black ice with temps flirting with 32 degrees. KBOS Terminal...Low confidence in TAF. The threat for freezing rain/snow likely comes to an end by 14z but low confidence how quickly temperatures rise above freezing so some - FZDZ is possible until that happens. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Areas BR, chance DZ, chance FZDZ, slight chance FZRA. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Areas BR, chance FZDZ, slight chance FZRA. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and tonight...High confidence. Large high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes coupled with low pressure to the south of the waters will continue to generate NE wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots and 4 to 8 foot seas today. Small craft headlines posted for all open waters today. The gradient/NE winds slacken tonight...but will need to continue small craft headlines for all outer-waters given long NE fetch and lingering swell. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of drizzle, areas fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Patchy fog. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ002>015- 026. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for RIZ001-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1261601 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 06.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 616 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry mix along and north of I-90 and in the high terrain winds down by early-mid morning...as well the burst of plowable snowfall expected in north central/northeast MA. A slippery early morning commute in these locations. Otherwise...areas of fog, spotty very light rain/drizzle may persist at times today & tonight. Any light freezing drizzle confined mainly to the high terrain this afternoon, but black ice may become more of a concern across the rest of the region tonight. - Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and with risk for showers Sat night into early Sun. - Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wintry mix along and north of I-90 and in the high terrain winds down by early-mid morning...as well the burst of plowable snowfall expected in north central/northeast MA. A Slippery early morning commute in these locations. Otherwise...areas of fog, spotty very light rain/drizzle may persist at times today & tonight. Any light freezing drizzle confined mainly to the high terrain this afternoon, but black ice may become more of a concern across the rest of the region tonight. The forecast remains on track early this morning. Rain and freezing rain have changed to mainly sleet along and north I-90 early this morning. This a result of 925T between -2C and -4C and the depth of the cold layer between 4-5K feet. So the main risk for a very localized areas of 0.25"+ of ice accretion will be in the southern Berks/southern Worcester Hills and the highest locations of the CT Hills. Fortunately...this risk looks to be very localized but power outages are possible if these higher ice amounts are realized. High resolution CAMS still indicate a period of 20-30 units of lift in the snowgrowth region across north central and especially northeast MA until 5-6 am. Given the soundings are isothermal... intense lift will be needed to flip the sleet over to mainly snow. The HREF/HRRR/RRFS all indicating a window for brief 1" per hour snowfall rates possible through 6 am. A quick 2-4" of snow possible in this region with localized 5-6" amounts not out of the question in far northeast MA near the NH border. As we mentioned...the risk of the heaviest snow will be until 6 am with the threat of accumulating snow ending by 8-9 am in this region. Otherwise...low pressure moves east of the region today but it will combined with high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. So although the deeper/moisture forcing will have departed...persistent moist northeast flow will result in dreary weather continuing the rest of today into tonight. Spotty areas of very light rain/drizzle and fog will also remain possible at times. Temps will remain in the 30s today...but they should generally rise above freezing today outside the highest terrain so road conditions will improve later this morning and afternoon in areas impacted by the snow and ice early this morning. W still need to watch for spotty freezing drizzle and slippery travel into this afternoon in the highest terrain...mainly at elevations over 1000 feet in the Worcester Hills/Berks. Perhaps some black ice becomes more of an issue for the rest of the region tonight with temps dropping to near freezing. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and with risk for showers Sat night into early Sun. A mid-level ridge/surface high moves into the western Atlantic this weekend directing milder S-SW flow into the region. While mid level temperatures surge (850mb temps as high as 13C) poor mixing with an inversion just off the deck will keep us from tapping into the truly mild temps. Even so, compared to highs in the low to mid 30s on Friday, Saturday will be warmer simply thanks to the winds at the surface flipping from NE to S/SW. Expect a cloudy day with highs in the mid 40s. A cold front then swings through Sunday, and out ahead of that the combination of a 50-60 kts LLJ and a 1.25"+ PWAT plume will lead to scattered light showers. The best consensus for timing is overnight Saturday but still need to get some higher resolution guidance to increase confidence, as some guidance wants to keep shower chances around through the day on Sunday. The best chance for this is southeast MA/coastal RI. For now sticking with thinking that showers and clouds clear out later Sunday allowing temps to further increase well into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. The warm advection pattern continues through at least Tuesday before our next frontal system brings rain and colder temps mid week. We continue to see signals for highs well into the 60s by Tuesday but, as is fairly typical this time of year, a high pressure over eastern Canada may send a back door cold front into SNE around late Tuesday. This has the potential to spoil the warm temperatures early, especially for northeast MA. It could be a situation where we have a very large temperature gradient between northeast MA and southwest CT. Either way, confidence is higher that a cold front moves through with precipitation and a cooler airmass around Wednesday. Before that, though, increased temps and dewpoints will lead to significant loss of our snowpack, so will have to monitor for rises on rivers and streams. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today...High confidence. IFR/LIFR conditions dominate today. The threat of accumulating snow/sleet across north central and northeast MA will come to an end by 13z/14z. Meanwhile...south of I-90 in the lower elevation, ptype mainly will be rain but some sleet may be mixed in at times. All precipitation tapers to mainly spotty light rain/drizzle by mid- late morning. However...IFR/LIFR conditions likely persist along with areas of fog due to continued onshore flow. Any spotty freezing drizzle will mainly be confined to the highest terrain by late morning and afternoon. NE winds 5 to 15 knots with some 20-25 knot gusts possible near the coast and up to 30 knots or so for parts of the outer-Cape and Nantucket. Tonight...High confidence. IFR-LIFR persist. Winds slacken, but remain NE. Areas of spotty light rain/drizzle and fog persist at times. We may have to watch for spotty freezing drizzle/black ice with temps flirting with 32 degrees. KBOS Terminal...Low confidence in TAF. The threat for freezing rain/snow likely comes to an end by 14z but low confidence how quickly temperatures rise above freezing so some -FZDZ is possible until that happens. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Areas BR, chance DZ, chance FZDZ, slight chance FZRA. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Areas BR, chance FZDZ, slight chance FZRA. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and tonight...High confidence. Large high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes coupled with low pressure to the south of the waters will continue to generate NE wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots and 4 to 8 foot seas today. Small craft headlines posted for all open waters today. The gradient/NE winds slacken tonight...but will need to continue small craft headlines for all outer-waters given long NE fetch and lingering swell. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of drizzle, areas fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Patchy fog. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ002>015- 026. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for RIZ001-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1261596 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 06.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 235 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry mix along and north of I-90 and in the high terrain winds down by early-mid morning...as well the burst of plowable snowfall expected in north central/northeast MA. A slippery early morning commute in these locations. Otherwise...areas of fog, spotty very light rain/drizzle may persist at times today & tonight. Any light freezing drizzle confined mainly to the high terrain this afternoon, but black ice may become more of a concern across the rest of the region tonight. - Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and with risk for showers Sat night into early Sun. - Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wintry mix along and north of I-90 and in the high terrain winds down by early-mid morning...as well the burst of plowable snowfall expected in north central/northeast MA. A Slippery early morning commute in these locations. Otherwise...areas of fog, spotty very light rain/drizzle may persist at times today & tonight. Any light freezing drizzle confined mainly to the high terrain this afternoon, but black ice may become more of a concern across the rest of the region tonight. The forecast remains on track early this morning. Rain and freezing rain have changed to mainly sleet along and north I-90 early this morning. This a result of 925T between -2C and -4C and the depth of the cold layer between 4-5K feet. So the main risk for a very localized areas of 0.25"+ of ice accretion will be in the southern Berks/southern Worcester Hills and the highest locations of the CT Hills. Fortunately...this risk looks to be very localized but power outages are possible if these higher ice amounts are realized. High resolution CAMS still indicate a period of 20-30 units of lift in the snowgrowth region across north central and especially northeast MA until 5-6 am. Given the soundings are isothermal... intense lift will be needed to flip the sleet over to mainly snow. The HREF/HRRR/RRFS all indicating a window for brief 1" per hour snowfall rates possible through 6 am. A quick 2-4" of snow possible in this region with localized 5-6" amounts not out of the question in far northeast MA near the NH border. As we mentioned...the risk of the heaviest snow will be until 6 am with the threat of accumulating snow ending by 8-9 am in this region. Otherwise...low pressure moves east of the region today but it will combined with high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. So although the deeper/moisture forcing will have departed...persistent moist northeast flow will result in dreary weather continuing the rest of today into tonight. Spotty areas of very light rain/drizzle and fog will also remain possible at times. Temps will remain in the 30s today...but they should generally rise above freezing today outside the highest terrain so road conditions will improve later this morning and afternoon in areas impacted by the snow and ice early this morning. W still need to watch for spotty freezing drizzle and slippery travel into this afternoon in the highest terrain...mainly at elevations over 1000 feet in the Worcester Hills/Berks. Perhaps some black ice becomes more of an issue for the rest of the region tonight with temps dropping to near freezing. Key Message 2...Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and with risk for showers Sat night into early Sun. A mid-level ridge/surface high moves into the western Atlantic this weekend directing milder S-SW flow into the region. While mid level temperatures surge (850mb temps as high as 13C) poor mixing with an inversion just off the deck will keep us from tapping into the truly mild temps. Even so, compared to highs in the low to mid 30s on Friday, Saturday will be warmer simply thanks to the winds at the surface flipping from NE to S/SW. Expect a cloudy day with highs in the mid 40s. A cold front then swings through Sunday, and out ahead of that the combination of a 50-60 kts LLJ and a 1.25"+ PWAT plume will lead to scattered light showers. The best consensus for timing is overnight Saturday but still need to get some higher resolution guidance to increase confidence, as some guidance wants to keep shower chances around through the day on Sunday. The best chance for this is southeast MA/coastal RI. For now sticking with thinking that showers and clouds clear out later Sunday allowing temps to further increase well into the 50s. Key Message 3...Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. The warm advection pattern continues through at least Tuesday before our next frontal system brings rain and colder temps mid week. We continue to see signals for highs well into the 60s by Tuesday but, as is fairly typical this time of year, a high pressure over eastern Canada may send a back door cold front into SNE around late Tuesday. This has the potential to spoil the warm temperatures early, especially for northeast MA. It could be a situation where we have a very large temperature gradient between northeast MA and southwest CT. Either way, confidence is higher that a cold front moves through with precipitation and a cooler airmass around Wednesday. Before that, though, increased temps and dewpoints will lead to significant loss of our snowpack, so will have to monitor for rises on rivers and streams. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...High confidence. IFR/LIFR conditions dominate today. Lingering rain changes to freezing rain and sleet in areas along and north of I-90 as well as parts of the high terrain over the next few hours. Sleet will be favored over freezing rain to the north of I-90 overnight with a change over to a burst of snow across north central and especially northeast MA likely during the time of the heaviest precipitation. The threat of accumulating snow/sleet across north central and northeast MA will come to an end by 13z/14z. Meanwhile...south of I-90 in the lower elevation, ptype mainly will be rain but some sleet may be mixed in at times. All precipitation tapers to mainly spotty light rain/drizzle by mid- late morning. However...IFR/LIFR conditions likely persist along with areas of fog due to continued onshore flow. Any spotty freezing drizzle will mainly be confined to the highest terrain by late morning and afternoon. NE winds 5 to 15 knots with some 20-25 knot gusts possible near the coast and up to 30 knots or so for parts of the outer-Cape and Nantucket. Tonight...High confidence. IFR-LIFR persist. Winds slacken, but remain NE. Areas of spotty light rain/drizzle and fog persist at times. We may have to watch for spotty freezing drizzle/black ice with temps flirting with 32 degrees. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. The threat for accumulating snow/sleet will come to an end by 13z/14z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Areas BR, chance FZDZ, slight chance FZRA. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and tonight...High confidence. Large high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes coupled with low pressure to the south of the waters will continue to generate NE wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots and 4 to 8 foot seas today. Small craft headlines posted for all open waters today. The gradient/NE winds slacken tonight...but will need to continue small craft headlines for all outer-waters given long NE fetch and lingering swell. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Patchy fog. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ002>015- 026. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for RIZ001-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ |
| #1261578 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 AM 06.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1155 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Snowfall amounts across NE MA were increased slightly. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain ongoing today will transition to sleet and freezing rain across the higher terrain heading into the evening hours, along with areas north of I-90. Precipitation expected to last through Friday morning. Greatest risk for 0.25"+ ice accretion remains in the high terrain of the southern Worcester Hills and southern Berkshires. Plowable snow more likely in far NE MA. Lingering drizzle as precip tapers off Fri afternoon. - Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and increasing risk for showers Sat night into early Sun as a cold front approaches. - Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain ongoing today will transition to sleet and freezing rain across the higher terrain heading into the evening hours, along with areas north of I-90. Precipitation expected to last through Friday morning. Greatest risk for 0.25"+ ice accretion remains in the high terrain of the southern Worcester Hills and southern Berkshires. Plowable snow more likely in far NE MA. A low from the west will continue tracking towards the south coast today into tonight, bringing with it a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Rain is making its way through southern New England at this time, with rain slowly moving north and east, being somewhat suppressed in northern parts of the region by lingering dry air aloft. More rain will move in during the evening hours and into tonight where the forecast becomes a bit messier, as ptype will transition from mostly rain to more sleet and freezing rain. This mix will mostly impact areas north of I-90 along with the higher terrain in the southern Worcester Hills and Berkshires, where the colder temperatures towards the surface resulting from the shallow cold air will allow for refreezing of falling precip. As a result, the chances for ice accretions reaching 0.25"+ are highest there, which could lead to power outages in these areas. Latest guidance continues to support more of a glaze of ice and sleet for northern MA, as 925 mb temperatures remain around -3C to -5C, but 850 mb temperatures are closer to and above 0C. Latest forecast soundings still have air below freezing extending up to around 5000 ft for northern MA for the first half of tonight, favoring more sleet. Past midnight, the guidance shifts to more snow as the air around 850 mb falls below 0C and the column becomes isothermal. Some sleet being mixed in with this snowfall cannot be completely ruled out. The latest HREF showed this trend well, favoring more snow for NE MA and down into Boston. Snow totals in NE MA could reach up to 4"; snow and sleet accumulations further south into the Boston area could range between 2-3". Precipitation is expected to taper off heading into the afternoon Friday, but light rain/drizzle and some fog will likely stick around, especially in the eastern half of southern New England due to continued onshore flow. These NE winds will keep the lower level moisture in place over the area, leading to a mostly dreary day Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and increasing risk for showers Sat night into early Sun as a cold front approaches. Surface ridge across New Eng Sat will move offshore with a S-SW flow developing in the afternoon. This will bring milder temps than Fri but certainly not as mild as 925/850 mb temps would suggest. Soundings show a rather strong inversion just off the deck with abundant low level moisture so expect lots of clouds with very shallow/limited BL mixing. So while it will be milder, the shallow cooler air will linger likely holding temps in the low-mid 40s. A cold front approaches from the NW Sat night and moves into SNE during Sun. A modest pre-frontal LLJ develops which advects higher PWATs exceeding 1" into SNE leading to some showers later Sat night into Sun morning, but widespread rain not expected. Then it should dry out by the afternoon with sunshine developing from NW to SE as the column dries out from the north. However, clouds should persist along the south coast as the moisture plume lingers here. Still a shallow mixed layer Sun but it`s drier with westerly flow which should help to boost temps into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week. A quasi-zonal flow sets up across the northern CONUS with a series of low amplitude shortwaves moving through the flow. A broad SW flow will allow further warming Monday with the potential for unseasonably mild to perhaps warm conditions on Tue and Wed. However, this is not a certainty as high pres will be across eastern Canada with a backdoor front lurking to the north. GFS is trying to push the front southward with shallow cool air draining south into SNE later Tue into Wed and GEFS overall is leaning on the cooler side. Meanwhile ECMWF keeps the front to the north with unseasonably mild temps. Interesting that AIGFS is all in on the warmth for Tue- Wed. We followed the NBM temps which has temps in the 60s away from the south coast. Confidence in temps is moderate and warmer temps will depend on front remaining to the north. 925 mb temps are pretty mild and it`s not out of the question we could see a few 70+ readings in the CT and Merrimack valley both Tue and Wed if the front stays to the north. EC ENS indicate 20-40% prob of 70+ Tue & Wed. These warmer temps combined with dewpoints climbing through the 40s and possibly some 50s by Wed will promote accelerated snowmelt with steady rises on rivers and streams. In addition, a period of showers will likely accompany a cold front late Wed into Thu. MMEFS ensemble guidance from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate a low risk for some rivers reaching minor flood next week so we will have to monitor this closely. The cold front is expected move through sometime Wed night into early Thu followed by cooler and drier conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...High confidence. IFR/LIFR conditions dominate today. Lingering rain changes to freezing rain and sleet in areas along and north of I-90 as well as parts of the high terrain over the next few hours. Sleet will be favored over freezing rain to the north of I-90 overnight with a change over to a burst of snow across north central and especially northeast MA likely during the time of the heaviest precipitation. The threat of accumulating snow/sleet across north central and northeast MA will come to an end by 13z/14z. Meanwhile...south of I-90 in the lower elevation, ptype mainly will be rain but some sleet may be mixed in at times. All precipitation tapers to mainly spotty light rain/drizzle by mid- late morning. However...IFR/LIFR conditions likely persist along with areas of fog due to continued onshore flow. Any spotty freezing drizzle will mainly be confined to the highest terrain by late morning and afternoon. NE winds 5 to 15 knots with some 20-25 knot gusts possible near the coast and up to 30 knots or so for parts of the outer-Cape and Nantucket. Tonight...High confidence. IFR-LIFR persist. Winds slacken, but remain NE. Areas of spotty light rain/drizzle and fog persist at times. We may have to watch for spotty freezing drizzle/black ice with temps flirting with 32 degrees. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. The threat for accumulating snow/sleet will come to an end by 13z/14z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. Low pressure continues to approach from the west this afternoon and will pass to our south Friday morning. At the same time, a 1040+ mb high pressure system will build across Quebec. Increasing NE winds this afternoon will continue through Friday before easing up Friday night as high pressure shifts more south. NE wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected this evening will continue at times into Friday, so Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Seas will also become quite choppy, ranging between 6-8 ft. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for MAZ002>015- 026. RI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for RIZ001-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ |
