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Watching a 20% area in the east Antialnic. Conditions ahead of it are not very condusive for development. Right now, odds keep it likely weak/no development and it curves east of Bermuda.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 322 (Milton) , Major: 322 (Milton) Florida - Any: 322 (Milton) Major: 322 (Milton)
41.2N 42.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1009mb
Moving:
Ene at 23 mph
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Taunton (Boston), MA (Boston/Cape Cod Area) Selection:
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#1243171 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 28.Aug.2025)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
217 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on
Friday, with small hail and gusty winds possible with a few of the
strongest storms. Otherwise...dry and very pleasant weather pattern
should prevail over most of the Holiday Weekend into most of next
week with just a low risk for a few brief showers on Labor Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Dry tonight with lows in the 50s to the lower 60s
* Low risk for a few spot showers toward daybreak

Details...

Tonight...

An approaching cold front will move eastward into western NY/western
PA tonight. This coupled with high pressure to our east will
generate a southerly flow with a gradual increase in low level
moisture. This will result in overnight low temps a bit milder than
last night...mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s. Some mid and high
cloudiness will overspread the region ahead of the approaching
shortwave/cold front. That being said...dry weather will prevail
tonight with just the risk for a few spot showers toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* A round of showers & scattered t-storms Fri...Highs in the 70s
* A few stronger storms may bring small hail/gusty winds Fri PM
* Drying out Friday night and turning cool with lows in the 40s & 50s

Details...

Friday...

A fairly dynamic upper level shortwave/cold front will approach the
region on Friday. This cold front will cross the region Friday
afternoon into early Friday evening...bringing a round of showers
and scattered thunderstorms with it. We will break it down more
below.

A modest southwest LLJ in the warm air advection pattern may result
in an initial round of a few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm
or two Friday morning. That being said...the greater risk for more
widespread showers and scattered t-storms will be Friday afternoon
into early Friday evening. Low level moisture will be limited...but
we do think dewpoints will recover into the 55 to 60 degree range.
In addition...the upper level trough is quite vigorous with cold
500T on the order of -16C/-17C! This coupled with highs in the 70s
shield yield Capes on the order of 500 to 1000 J/KG. Given the
amount of forcing along the front...we expect showers to develop
along with scattered t-storms Friday afternoon/early evening. Given
the cold temps aloft...the strongest storms may contain small hail
and gusty winds. While we can not rule out an isolated severe t-
storm or two...this appears to be mainly sub-severe storms with
small hail/gusty winds. The main time of concern for the showers and
scattered t-storms is between noon and 8 pm.

Friday night...

Any lingering showers/t-storms will exit the coast by early Friday
evening. Otherwise...a dry and cooler northwest flow of air will
work into the region behind the cold front. This will result in
another unseasonably cool night. Low temps Friday night will bottom
out in the middle to upper 40s across the normally cooler outlying
locations to the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Points

* Extended period of dry and pleasant weather this weekend into
next week

* Low chance for Isolated showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon

Surface high pressure builds in behind Fridays cold front, brining
an extended stretch of dry and pleasant fall like weather to the
region. High temperatures will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s
during this stretch. The upper level pattern is a bit more messy and
uncertain as upper level trough and cold pool that were originally
going to move off shore by Sunday could stall and back build over
the region by Monday. This could lead to another round of isolated
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon as 500-1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE builds underneath the cold pool. Given the cold temps aloft,
small hail/graupel will be possible once again with any stronger
thunderstorms. After Monday, the next best chance for precipitation
appears to arrive late in the week as global guidance is in pretty
good agreement on a stronger shortwave trough exiting the Great Lakes

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon through tonight...High confidence.

VFR. SSW 5-12 knots.

Friday...High confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions but we do expect a round of showers and
scattered t-storms which will bring briefly lower conditions. While
a few showers will be possible Friday morning...appears the greater
risk will be after 16z/17z until about 00z from west to east. A few
of the stronger storms may contain small hail/gusty winds.

Friday night...High confidence.

Any lingering showers/t-storms will exit the coast early Friday
evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions with light NW winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. The main concern is the risk for
a few t-storms in the vicinity of the terminal Friday afternoon into
the evening push.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. The main concern is the risk for
a few t-storms in the vicinity of the terminal Friday afternoon.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Friday night...High confidence.

S-SW winds are expected tonight into Friday ahead of an approaching
cold front. We may see some 20+ knot wind gusts and choppy seas
Friday...but thinking conditions remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. The main concern though will be for a few strong t-
storms later Friday into early Friday evening that may contain small
hail/gusty winds as a cold front crosses the waters. Winds will then
shift to the WNW Friday night behind the cold front...but should
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night through Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
#1243164 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 28.Aug.2025)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
124 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on
Friday, with small hail and gusty winds possible with a few of the
strongest storms. Otherwise...dry and very pleasant weather pattern
should prevail over most of the Holiday Weekend into most of next
week with just a low risk for a few brief showers on Labor Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Dry tonight with lows in the 50s to the lower 60s
* Low risk for a few spot showers toward daybreak

Details...

Tonight...

An approaching cold front will move eastward into western NY/western
PA tonight. This coupled with high pressure to our east will
generate a southerly flow with a gradual increase in low level
moisture. This will result in overnight low temps a bit milder than
last night...mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s. Some mid and high
cloudiness will overspread the region ahead of the approaching
shortwave/cold front. That being said...dry weather will prevail
tonight with just the risk for a few spot showers toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* A round of showers & scattered t-storms Fri...Highs in the 70s
* A few stronger storms may bring small hail/gusty winds Fri PM
* Drying out Friday night and turning cool with lows in the 40s & 50s

Details...

Friday...

A fairly dynamic upper level shortwave/cold front will approach the
region on Friday. This cold front will cross the region Friday
afternoon into early Friday evening...bringing a round of showers
and scattered thunderstorms with it. We will break it down more
below.

A modest southwest LLJ in the warm air advection pattern may result
in an initial round of a few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm
or two Friday morning. That being said...the greater risk for more
widespread showers and scattered t-storms will be Friday afternoon
into early Friday evening. Low level moisture will be limited...but
we do think dewpoints will recover into the 55 to 60 degree range.
In addition...the upper level trough is quite vigorous with cold
500T on the order of -16C/-17C! This coupled with highs in the 70s
shield yield Capes on the order of 500 to 1000 J/KG. Given the
amount of forcing along the front...we expect showers to develop
along with scattered t-storms Friday afternoon/early evening. Given
the cold temps aloft...the strongest storms may contain small hail
and gusty winds. While we can not rule out an isolated severe t-
storm or two...this appears to be mainly sub-severe storms with
small hail/gusty winds. The main time of concern for the showers and
scattered t-storms is between noon and 8 pm.

Friday night...

Any lingering showers/t-storms will exit the coast by early Friday
evening. Otherwise...a dry and cooler northwest flow of air will
work into the region behind the cold front. This will result in
another unseasonably cool night. Low temps Friday night will bottom
out in the middle to upper 40s across the normally cooler outlying
locations to the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Extended stretch of tranquil/dry weather this weekend into the
middle of next week, with seasonable days and cool nights.

* Next chance for rain may hold off until late next week.

Details:

Entering into an extended stretch of dry weather in this
period, as a broad area of surface high pressure moves in from
the Gt Lakes this weekend and then parks itself over Nova
Scotia/Canadian Maritimes into the middle of next week.
Initially we`re under deep cyclonic flow aloft from a closed
upper low over northern New England; aside from diurnally driven
cumulus clouds, no impacts to sensible weather are expected
with the main threat for showers being in far northern New
England. While the 500 mb pattern becomes more complex/blocky as
we move into early next week, it doesn`t look like rain will be
in the offing for quite some time, potentially not until late
next week.

Temperatures start off a little cooler than normal, then a
modest warm up as we move into the early to middle part of the
workweek. Expect strong diurnal ranges to high and low temps
(mild days, cool nights). All told, pretty nice weather to close
out August and flip the calendar to September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon through tonight...High confidence.

VFR. SSW 5-12 knots.

Friday...High confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions but we do expect a round of showers and
scattered t-storms which will bring briefly lower conditions. While
a few showers will be possible Friday morning...appears the greater
risk will be after 16z/17z until about 00z from west to east. A few
of the stronger storms may contain small hail/gusty winds.

Friday night...High confidence.

Any lingering showers/t-storms will exit the coast early Friday
evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions with light NW winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. The main concern is the risk for
a few t-storms in the vicinity of the terminal Friday afternoon into
the evening push.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. The main concern is the risk for
a few t-storms in the vicinity of the terminal Friday afternoon.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Friday night...High confidence.

S-SW winds are expected tonight into Friday ahead of an approaching
cold front. We may see some 20+ knot wind gusts and choppy seas
Friday...but thinking conditions remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. The main concern though will be for a few strong t-
storms later Friday into early Friday evening that may contain small
hail/gusty winds as a cold front crosses the waters. Winds will then
shift to the WNW Friday night behind the cold front...but should
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night through Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
#1243128 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 28.Aug.2025)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
254 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns today, with modest southerly winds. A cold
front should bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
on Friday, with thunderstorms more likely across central and
eastern portions of Southern New England. A dry weather pattern
should prevail over the weekend and into next week, along with
a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Filtered sun today through high clouds with modest southerly
breezes. Highs in the 70s, with cooler seabreezes for eastern MA.

* Quite a bit milder tonight, with spotty rain showers developing
toward daybreak. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, some 10
degrees warmer than previous nights.

Details:

Lead shortwave disturbance at 500 mb, responsible for yesterday`s
scattered showers and small-hail-producing t-storms, is now offshore
as of early this morning. Weak shortwave ridging is now building in
with sfc high pressure in control. Water vapor satellite imagery
shows the next reinforcing mid-level trough now over Hudson Bay,
with axis extending through the Gt Lakes region. This feature and
its associated sfc cold front will play a larger role in the weather
for tonight and especially into Fri.

For today though, an area of high clouds over the OH Valley is
expected to stream N/NE during the morning to early afternoon hours.
These clouds won`t amount to much more than a filtered-sun look for
today though, with dry weather the rule. A gradually increasing SWly
pressure gradient through the day will allow for SW winds to perk up
some, to around 5-10 mph with some occasional gusts to no more than
20 mph. These SWlys cast some question as to how long a seabreeze on
the eastern MA coast can develop and/or be sustained; it most likely
ends up being fairly brief, except for those along the North
Shore/Cape Ann. But other than that though, a return to quiet
weather with thermal advection turning to weak warm advection but
the high cloud canopy should keep temps closer to the mid/upper 70s
for most. Coastal seabreezes along the North Shore and along the
immediate south coast/Cape Cod should lead to slightly cooler temps
in the lower 70s.

For tonight...we enter into a warm-sector airmass, with accompanying
rising dewpoints and increased cloud cover (especially toward
daybreak). When combined with southerly winds around 5-10 mph during
the evening and overnight, this is a setup which favors a slow fall
in temps and have added a few degrees to NBM lows to account for
this. It looks as though cold-frontal showers should hold off into
western New England until daybreak Friday. However there are some
hints at warm-advection rain showers in some of the 00z NWP output
along the south coast and southern coastal waters, and even into
parts of the I-95 corridor. So started to introduce a slight chance
PoP for showers between 08-12z. Regardless, tonight will be quite a
bit warmer with a little bit more humidity too but I`d hesitate to
call it "muggy" with dewpoints in the upper 50s/around 60. Lows
tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Fri, with better chances
for thunderstorms from central MA/eastern CT into RI/eastern MA
during the early to midafternoon. Severe weather isn`t expected,
but a couple storms may produce briefly strong wind gusts and
small (sub-severe) hail. Highs in the 70s.

* Clearing/drying Fri night, lows in the 50s.

Details:

Sfc cold front or frontal occlusion will be moving eastward
from eastern NY through the New England states on Fri. While
there might be some showers ongoing by daybreak, pretty good
frontal convergence as sfc winds back to SE ahead of the front
fosters showers and thunderstorms to develop in greater numbers.
The biggest question mark is the timing of the front`s progress
through Southern New England; while a few solutions are slower,
a rough consensus seems to be during the mid morning into the
Berkshires and to the eastern coastal waters by mid/late
afternoon. Thinking it`s more likely that areas east of I-91
have the better chance at seeing some weak destabilization and
some thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, wet bulb zero heights
are quite low at around 7000-8000 ft AGL. Even still, CAPE
values are less than 1000 J/kg in all areas, and while there is
some speed shear, shear magnitudes of around 30 to 35 kts are
not suggestive of severe weather potential. A couple storms
could become strong and capable of briefly strong gusts and
small hail, mainly from central MA, eastern CT, RI and eastern
MA/North Shore area, but severe weather potential looks very low
to nil. PoPs in the Likely range, which decrease from west to
east late in the day. Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s.

Cold front then moves offshore with some residual showers or t-
storms for the Cape and Islands early tonight. We then start to
become governed by troughing associated with a closed upper low
which is forecast to meander around northern New England.
Cooler air filters in on modest northwest winds post-frontal,
along with falling dewpoints. We should see mostly clear skies,
but may trend partly cloudy in NW MA closer to the upper low and
its associated cold pocket and related moisture. Lows upper 40s
to the mid 50s, with mid/upper 50s over Cape Cod and the
Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Extended stretch of tranquil/dry weather this weekend into the
middle of next week, with seasonable days and cool nights.

* Next chance for rain may hold off until late next week.

Details:

Entering into an extended stretch of dry weather in this
period, as a broad area of surface high pressure moves in from
the Gt Lakes this weekend and then parks itself over Nova
Scotia/Canadian Maritimes into the middle of next week.
Initially we`re under deep cyclonic flow aloft from a closed
upper low over northern New England; aside from diurnally driven
cumulus clouds, no impacts to sensible weather are expected
with the main threat for showers being in far northern New
England. While the 500 mb pattern becomes more complex/blocky as
we move into early next week, it doesn`t look like rain will be
in the offing for quite some time, potentially not until late
next week.

Temperatures start off a little cooler than normal, then a
modest warm up as we move into the early to middle part of the
workweek. Expect strong diurnal ranges to high and low temps
(mild days, cool nights). All told, pretty nice weather to close
out August and flip the calendar to September.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update: High confidence.

Through 12z Thursday: High confidence.

Mainly VFR, though BAF/BDL and BED could see fog develop around
08-09z. Light/calm winds.

Today: High confidence, though moderate on seabreeze
development.

VFR, SCT-BKN high clouds. Light winds become S/SW around 10 kt
this aftn. Possible seabreeze 14-17z at BOS but would be brief
or stays just offshore.

Tonight: High confidence.

Mainly VFR, though some coastal fog/stratus could be possible
for the Cape as moisture levels rise. Possible SHRA 08-12z for
the south coast and the I-95 corridor, but this is still
uncertain. SW winds 5-10 kt.

Friday: Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR, though some brief sub-VFR restrictions possible in
SHRA/TS as cold front moves through ~14-22z. Best chance for TS
mainly ORH eastward, a couple strong TS possible but severe not
expected. S to SE winds 5-10 kt before frontal passage, then
shifting to W/WNW late in the day after frontal passage.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF, moderate on seabreeze. Brief
window for seabreeze between 14-17z (or possibly just offshore)
before SW winds pick up to around 10 kt thereafter.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overall high confidence.

Winds and seas remain below SCA through Fri.

South winds are expected today around 10-15 kt, increasing to
around 15-20 kt Fri. Possible fog tonight over the the south-
coastal waters. Potential for a few thunderstorms Fri into Fri
night over the waters, before a windshift to W Fri night.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night through Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$