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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Taunton (Boston), MA (Boston/Cape Cod Area) Selection: |
| #1252910 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 620 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Colder and windier conditions follow behind the cold front for Thanksgiving. Winds then increase on Friday and lessen by Saturday, with scattered flurries at times in interior Southern New England to end the week. Another low pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain. Cooling down again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible storminess around Tue/Wed. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Colder today and blustery. Our cold front continues to push through southern New England early this morning, presently draped from north to south across eastern MA. This should push offshore in the next few hours with a significant drying behind it on increasing NW winds. 850mb temps drop precipitously as a broad mid level trough expands over the Great Lakes and eventually New England. This all leads to a mostly sunny but cooler day, with highs in the mid/upper 40s feeling more like the 30s thanks to winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. Winds will come down overnight but with only a marginal inversion if any so likely won`t see winds becoming calm. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Key Messages... * Windier and colder on Friday. * Scattered show showers/flurries over western/central MA possible. Winds quickly pick up on Friday after sunrise as the mixing layer increases in height coincident to the core of a 45kt LLJ moving overhead. Currently expecting the windiest day of the week with gusts as high as 45 mph in the high terrain/eastern slopes of the Berkshires. The core of colder air also moves closer so those high temperatures drop several degrees, into the upper 30s/low 40s. The only precipitation to note will be some scattered lake effect streamers from the Great Lakes that will hold together across NY and making for some festive flakes with negligible accumulations in western/central MA during the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Less windy on Saturday. * Temps warm up significantly Sunday before dropping again first half of next week. * Quick hitting light rain Sunday/Sunday night followed by the potential for a higher impact, potentially wintry storm around Tuesday/Wednesday but confidence is low. Cold, cyclonic flow continues overhead on Saturday but the core of the LLJ moves off so winds, while breezy, will be lighter than on Friday. One more day of cold temperatures (peaking in the mid 30s/low 40s) before a significant warm up Sunday with the arrival of a warm front ahead of a low pressure system passing to our north. This brings with it stratiform rain showers accompanying temps in the upper 40s to low 50 in the afternoon. Guidance has sped up the arrival so many will see wet weather on Sunday, but it comes to an end well before sunrise Monday; not expecting a lot of QPF from this quick hitting system. The more interesting system is slated for around Tuesday as the next deep shortwave digging into the OH valley looks to drag a surface low center past New England from SW to NE; the biggest question, the exact track and how precip types subsequently shake out, is still a long time from being answered at 6 days out. At this point guidance has all option on the table from a mostly rain event to a near miss offshore to a snowier solution. For now, ensembles are not enthused. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z update... Today/Thanksgiving...High Confidence. VFR. Brief period of lighter WSW winds 12-14z before winds mix back down by 15Z, then W winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts through remainder of day. Thursday night...High Confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts gusting 15-25 kts. Friday...High Confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Gusting 30-35 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday... High confidence. * Small Craft Advisories for all marine zones Thursday. * Gale Warning for Friday through early Saturday across all waters. A cold front crosses the waters early this morning clearing fog/low clouds. Gusts 25-34 kts are possible for a period after the frontal passage early this morning. Otherwise winds/gusts 20-30 kts for marine zones today. Seas rising to 6-8ft by the afternoon for the southern outer waters. This will keep marine zones in SCA criteria all day. Southern outer waters may briefly by shy of gale winds for a brief period with the frontal passage early this morning. Gale Warning is in effect for Friday. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1252891 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 150 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Colder and windier conditions follow behind the cold front for Thanksgiving. Winds then increase on Friday and lessen by Saturday, with scattered flurries at times in interior Southern New England to end the week. Another low pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain. Cooling down again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible storminess around Tue/Wed. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Colder today and blustery. Our cold front continues to push through southern New England early this morning, presently draped from north to south across eastern MA. This should push offshore in the next few hours with a significant drying behind it on increasing NW winds. 850mb temps drop precipitously as a broad mid level trough expands over the Great Lakes and eventually New England. This all leads to a mostly sunny but cooler day, with highs in the mid/upper 40s feeling more like the 30s thanks to winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. Winds will come down overnight but with only a marginal inversion if any so likely won`t see winds becoming calm. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Key Messages... * Windier and colder on Friday. * Scattered show showers/flurries over western/central MA possible. Winds quickly pick up on Friday after sunrise as the mixing layer increases in height coincident to the core of a 45kt LLJ moving overhead. Currently expecting the windiest day of the week with gusts as high as 45 mph in the high terrain/eastern slopes of the Berkshires. The core of colder air also moves closer so those high temperatures drop several degrees, into the upper 30s/low 40s. The only precipitation to note will be some scattered lake effect streamers from the Great Lakes that will hold together across NY and making for some festive flakes with negligible accumulations in western/central MA during the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Less windy on Saturday. * Temps warm up significantly Sunday before dropping again first half of next week. * Quick hitting light rain Sunday/Sunday night followed by the potential for a higher impact, potentially wintry storm around Tuesday/Wednesday but confidence is low. Cold, cyclonic flow continues overhead on Saturday but the core of the LLJ moves off so winds, while breezy, will be lighter than on Friday. One more day of cold temperatures (peaking in the mid 30s/low 40s) before a significant warm up Sunday with the arrival of a warm front ahead of a low pressure system passing to our north. This brings with it stratiform rain showers accompanying temps in the upper 40s to low 50 in the afternoon. Guidance has sped up the arrival so many will see wet weather on Sunday, but it comes to an end well before sunrise Monday; not expecting a lot of QPF from this quick hitting system. The more interesting system is slated for around Tuesday as the next deep shortwave digging into the OH valley looks to drag a surface low center past New England from SW to NE; the biggest question, the exact track and how precip types subsequently shake out, is still a long time from being answered at 6 days out. At this point guidance has all option on the table from a mostly rain event to a near miss offshore to a snowier solution. For now, ensembles are not enthused. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z update... Through 12Z...High Confidence Cold frontal passage through 08Z, with ceilings/vsbys rapidly improving to VFR behind it. Winds shift to W/WSW with front passage sustained 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, especially with/just behind the front passage. Today/Thanksgiving...High Confidence. VFR. Brief period of lighter WSW winds 12-14z before winds mix back down by 15Z, then W winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts through remainder of day. Thursday night...High Confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts gusting 15-25 kts. Friday...High Confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Gusting 30-35 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday... High confidence. * Small Craft Advisories for all marine zones Thursday. * Gale Warning for Friday through early Saturday across all waters. A cold front crosses the waters early this morning clearing fog/low clouds. Gusts 25-34 kts are possible for a period after the frontal passage early this morning. Otherwise winds/gusts 20-30 kts for marine zones today. Seas rising to 6-8ft by the afternoon for the southern outer waters. This will keep marine zones in SCA criteria all day. Southern outer waters may briefly by shy of gale winds for a brief period with the frontal passage early this morning. Gale Warning is in effect for Friday. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-231-236- 250-251-254. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237- 255-256. && $$ |
| #1252876 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1157 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front sweeps across the region late tonight. Colder and windier conditions follow behind the front for Thanksgiving. Colder temperatures with windy conditions Friday and Saturday, with scattered flurries at times in interior Southern New England. Another low pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain. Cooling down again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible storminess around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Messages... * Cold front moves through overnight with breezy westerly winds and clearing skies behind it. Details... Mainly cloudy with some breaks of sun for the remainder of the afternoon with a few showers for the Cape/Islands. Can`t rule out a brief sprinkle elsewhere. Overnight, a cold front will sweep across southern New England quickly clearing out the lower clouds. High- resolution guidance shows some light rain showers possible accompanying the front, mainly across western southern New England. Gusts 20-30 mph are possible as cold air advects into the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Colder and blustery for Thanksgiving. Details... Southern New England will be in a cool post-frontal airmass Thursday. 850mb temperatures drop to -4 to -6C yielding high temperatures in the low to mid 40s, about 10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Evident in model soundings, the cold advection and westerly flow will allow for a sufficient mixing in the boundary layer. This will lead to a fairly blustery day with gusts 25-35 mph. Mainly clear skies Thursday night which will support optimal radiational cooling within the cool airmass. This should allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s for inland areas and low 30s for coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Windy Fri and Sat (gusts Fri 35-45 mph) with below normal temps. Scattered flurries for interior sections possible Fri. * Low pressure brings rain later Sunday into Sunday night. * Cooldown later Monday; possible storminess Tue-Wed? Details: Friday and Saturday: Cold cyclonic flow regime takes hold of Southern New England for the post-Thanksgiving Day period, as deep upper troughing moves through. Gusty WNW winds particularly for Fri will accompany the period of cooler than normal temps, given a tight pressure gradient and a deep but well-mixed boundary layer allowing for efficient daytime momentum transport. Gusts Fri probably fall just short of Advisory level at around 30-40 mph (perhaps in the 45 mph range around the interior higher terrain); but the main impact will be mostly colder wind chills for post-holiday shoppers/those outdoors. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s but will feel like the mid 20s to around 30 with the westerly winds. With some Great Lakes-enhanced moisture on the stronger westerly flow, it`s more of a partly to mostly cloudy look, and with enough moisture and some modest lift in the snow- dendrite growth temperature layer, could be some flurries/flakes whipped around by the stronger winds in the interior but nil impact/accum. Sustained westerly winds during the night will keep temps from falling very far but it will still feel quite chilly. Sat also stands to feature below normal temps and blustery winds, but lower gusts (25-30 mph) to go along with more sun should take the edge off the colder apparent temps for those with weekend plans. Sunday: High pressure to our south early on Sunday moves offshore as the next area of low pressure treks from MI east-northeast through the St. Lawrence River for Sunday afternoon and night per model consensus. With increased southerly flow, this is ordinarily a warmer (e.g. liquid/rainier) storm track, with rains breaking out Sunday afternoon and should remain as rain for the majority of the time, before ending as a brief period of snowflakes for the interior/higher terrain. Wetting rains look likely but significant rains are not anticipated. Early Next Week: Drier weather with a gradual cooldown in temps toward below normal levels for Monday, especially later in the day into the night. We`ll then have to monitor larger-scale developments toward Tue and/or Wed as shortwave trough energy moves through the southern/south-central tier of states and could allow for low pressure to trek over or south of Southern New England. The timing, the exact track and the northward extent of precipitation, each of which are still uncertain at this early juncture; some wintry weather accumulations would be possible if a favorable storm track materializes. Initial look favors more of a plain rain/interior snow-rain mix. Water temps which are still in the upper 40s/lower 50s, so as is often the case with early and late-season wintry events, any sustained onshore flow given these water temps would force more rain into the picture vs what model precip types would otherwise show. We`ll continue to monitor this potential over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z update... Through 12Z...High Confidence Cold frontal passage through 08Z, with ceilings/vsbys rapidly improving to VFR behind it. Winds shift to W/WSW with front passage sustained 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, especially with/just behind the front passage. Today/Thanksgiving...High Confidence. VFR. Brief period of lighter WSW winds 12-14z before winds mix back down by 15Z, then W winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts through remainder of day. Thursday night...High Confidence. VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts gusting 15-25 kts. Friday...High Confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Gusting 30-35 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Monday: Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Thanksgiving... High confidence. * Small Craft Advisories for all marine zones Thursday. * Gale Watch for Friday through early Saturday across all waters. Localized dense fog possible this evening over the cooler ocean waters. A cold front crosses the waters after midnight clearing fog/low clouds. Gusts 25-34 kts are possible for a period after the frontal passage early Thursday morning.. Otherwise winds/gusts 20-30 kts for marine zones tomorrow. Seas rising to 6-8ft by the afternoon for the southern outer waters. This will keep marine zones in SCA criteria all day tomorrow. Southern outer waters may briefly by shy of gale winds for a brief period with the frontal passage early tomorrow morning. Gale Watch is in effect for Friday where confidence is increasing for Gale- force winds on Friday. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-231-236-250-251-254. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237- 255-256. && $$ |
