Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Lorenzo well out at sea. Late this week worth monitoring for disturbances that could track closer to home.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Charleston, SC (Charleston, SC Area) Selection: |
| No data for this date - Showing most recent prior to 10-14-2025 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 527 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the region this week. A dry cold front will drop south through the area Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Southern, and increasingly dominate, aspect of bi-model low offshore will continue to pull away from the SC coast overnight as drier low level air filters eastward from the upstate and piedmont. Clear skies current along the Altamaha region and inland GA will continue to advance northward, with SE GA mostly clear by late afternoon, the the Lowcountry clearing through the evening. While a few strips of clouds could linger into the overnight hours, radiational cooling as the BL gradient wanes will allow temps to fall into the mid-to-upper 50s away from the beaches tonight. The greatest forecast challenge will be fog. There is most likely enough mixing above the surface to abate fog formation given the lack of upper subsidence, but with so much ground moisture in place, especially along the coast from Savannah northward, there may at least be patchy fog developing in sheltered areas late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A upper-lvl ridge will maintain control of the forecast through the rest of the week, promoting dry and stable weather with decent radiational cooling at night. The drier mid-lvls and subsidence will hinder convection and promote mostly clear skies. A weak seabreeze will still be prevalent in the afternoons, but with limited moisture and no meaningful forcing, precipitation chances will remain near zero. A cold, dry front will pass through the region on Wednesday night, introducing weak cold air advection and a drier continental air mass. This will likely drop the temperatures a bit and cause for a subtle wind shift, but not much else. Post- frontal conditions will feature lower dewpoints and a pleasant slightly cooler day under clear skies on Thursday. Temperatures will run slightly above normal with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday through Wednesday, with Thursday being a few degrees cooler due to post FROPA. Expect overnight lows to fall into the low to mid-50s inland, with low 60s near the coastline. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The post-frontal airmass will continue to dominate the forecast into the weekend, yielding dry and stable conditions with minimal precipitation chances. Temperatures will stay on cooler side on Friday with highs ranging in the low to mid 70s across SE South Carolina and mid to upper 70s across SE Georgia. Thereafter, temperatures make a rebound and climb back up into the upper 70s to low 80s over the weekend. Expect overnight lows to range on the cooler side with temperates dropping into the low to mid 50s inland, and low 60s along the coast. It`s important to note that there is potential for some spots across inland SE South Carolina to drop into the upper 40s on overnight on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 14/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through 15/00z. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail. && .MARINE... Tonight: The gradient continues to diminish overnight as low pulls away to the northeast and weak high pressure builds in from the west. Northerly windswell keeps sea around 2-4 ft overnight as longer period SE swell diminishes. Tuesday through Friday: As high pressure continues to build down from the northwest, north-northwasterly winds will prevail at 10 to 15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts possible on Tuesday. Ahead of a advancing dry, cold front on Wednesday, winds will veer north- northeasterly and increase to 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 22-23 kts across the nearshore waters and 24-26 kts across the outer Georgia waters. In response, the pressure gradient will become pinched between the building high across the eastern CONUS and a deepening low in the middle of the Atlantic. Elevated winds will remain through Thursday night due to post-frontal conditions. Expect winds to ease on Friday as the ridging starts to break down. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft on Tuesday, and then build up to 4 to 6 ft (with some 7 footers encroaching into the outer Georgia waters). Small Craft Advisories might be needed for AMZ350 and AMZ374 given the elevated seas and winds beginning on Tuesday night. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
