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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Charleston, SC (Charleston, SC Area) Selection: |
| #1243189 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 28.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 725 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area as a stationary front lingers well to the south and offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will maintain its influence on the region through tonight. Weak cyclogenesis is progged to occur well offshore along a stationary front as shortwave energy passes by. Dry and cool conditions will persist. Lows early Friday morning will range from the mid 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid-lvl troughing will dominate through the weekend, while shortwaves ripple across the southeastern states along the southern periphery of the troughing. At the surface, a stalled front will be positioned across the Florida Peninsula. Model guidance continues to suggest that a low will develop along the front. This low should progress along with the motion of the front and move offshore by Friday. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. It`s still uncertain how much coverage there will be as it`s very dependent on the evolution of this low. However, the severe threat remains low as instability looks very limited (~300-400 J/kg), but brief locally heavy rainfall is still possible. WPC has highlighted the region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday and Sunday. Expect temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 80s on Friday, and a low 80s on Saturday and Sunday due to increased cloud/precip. chances. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... With an amplified upper-lvl trough aloft, another weak low pressure tries to form offshore early next week. However, recent model guidance suggests a surface high sets up north of the region and this could possibly place us in a wedge situation. This could inhibit the chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the week. The recent run of the NBM suggests a decreasing trend in PoPs, but will see if this continues to hold true. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions expected to largely prevail, with brief periods of flight restrictions possible by the end of the week as chances for showers/thunderstorms increase. && .MARINE... Tonight: East/northeast winds less than 15 kt and seas 2-3 ft will persist as low pressure forms well offshore. Friday through Tuesday: A weak area of low pressure located in the northern Gulf will move across the Florida Peninsula along a frontal boundary and then shift offshore by Friday. This frontal boundary should stay to the south of the region. Expect east-northeasterly winds to remain across the Atlantic until early next week. It could become quite gusty over the waters on Sunday and Monday as another low tries to potentially develop offshore early next week. Otherwise, no marine concerns are anticipated through this period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243159 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 PM 28.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 107 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area as a stationary front lingers well to the south and offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will maintain its influence on the region through tonight. Weak cyclogenesis is progged to occur well offshore along a stationary front as shortwave energy passes by. There may be just enough lift and low-level moisture with this shortwave to support an isolated shower or two along parts of the Georgia coast later this afternoon into the early evening hours; otherwise, dry and cool conditions will persist. Lows early Friday morning will range from the mid 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid-lvl troughing will dominate through the weekend, while shortwaves ripple across the southeastern states along the southern periphery of the troughing. At the surface, a stalled front will be positioned across the Florida Peninsula. Model guidance continues to suggest that a low will develop along the front. This low should progress along with the motion of the front and move offshore by Friday. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. It`s still uncertain how much coverage there will be as it`s very dependent on the evolution of this low. However, the severe threat remains low as instability looks very limited (~300-400 J/kg), but brief locally heavy rainfall is still possible. WPC has highlighted the region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday and Sunday. Expect temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 80s on Friday, and a low 80s on Saturday and Sunday due to increased cloud/precip. chances. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With an amplified upper-lvl trough aloft, another weak low pressure tries to form offshore early next week. However, recent model guidance suggests a surface high sets up north of the region and this could possibly place us in a wedge situation. This could inhibit the chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the week. The recent run of the NBM suggests a decreasing trend in PoPs, but will see if this continues to hold true. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 28/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 29/18z. Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions expected to largely prevail, with brief periods of flight restrictions possible by the end of the week as chances for showers/thunderstorms increase. && .MARINE... Tonight: East/northeast winds less than 15 kt and seas 2-3 ft will persist as low pressure forms well offshore. Friday through Tuesday: A weak area of low pressure located in the northern Gulf will move across the Florida Peninsula along a frontal boundary and then shift offshore by Friday. This frontal boundary should stay to the south of the region. Expect east-northeasterly winds to remain across the Atlantic until early next week. It could become quite gusty over the waters on Sunday and Monday as another low tries to potentially develop offshore early next week. Otherwise, no marine concerns are anticipated through this period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243142 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 654 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through today. Thereafter, a stationary front should remain to the south of the region through the weekend, and cause for unsettled conditions to begin on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast area will remain under a broad H5 trough through today, shifting to east tonight. At the sfc, weak high pressure should linger across the region today. Forecast soundings indicate that PW values should increase today, especially in the wake of a sea breeze this afternoon. Given a bit more moisture than yesterday, a field of shallow cumulus should develop under SCT to BKN cirrus this afternoon. As temperature rise into the mid 80s across SC Lowcountry to the upper 80s across SE GA, weak instability should develop over SE GA. Isolated cells are forecast to develop across extreme SE GA during the heat of the afternoon along the sea breeze. Tonight, any convection that develops this afternoon should dissipate early this evening. The rest of the night is forecast to remain dry and cool. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad troughing will dominate aloft Friday and into the weekend, while shortwaves ripple across the southeastern states along the southern periphery of the troughing. At the surface a stalled front will be positioned just south of the forecast area, draped across the Florida Peninsula. Models depict a low developing along the stalled front, progressing northeastward across the Florida Peninsula towards offshore SC. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. However, models are in somewhat of a disagreement as to the strength and positioning of the developing low. Many forecast details will be impacted if the low remains further offshore or makes a closer approach of the coastline. The greatest chances of precipitation will be Saturday and Sunday afternoons, when shortwaves will be passing aloft. The severe threat remains low as there is very little instability. PWAT values are forecast to reach around 1.5 to 1.8", which according to SPC Climatology would be near the daily maximum. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall is possible, with the Weather Prediction Center outlooking the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Friday and through the weekend. Temperatures through the period will remain a few degrees below normal, owing to the increased cloud cover and precipitation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Not much change in the overall pattern is expected in the long term, with upper level troughing dominating over the east coast. Shortwave troughs will continue to ripple across the southeastern states through the middle of next week. At the surface another coastal low is forecast to develop along a remnant frontal boundary towards the middle of the week. There exists significant model disagreement in the placement of this low. However, increased precipitation chances will remain in the forecast through the period. Temperatures will continue their below normal trend. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Cirrus clouds should remain scattered to broken through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through Friday. Brief periods of flight restrictions are possible this weekend and into early next week with showers/tstorms. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Winds should generally favor a east-northeast direction at around 10 kts. Seas should range between 2 to 3 ft. Friday through Tuesday: A stalled front will be present just south of the local waters through the weekend and into early next week. An area of low pressure located in the northern Gulf is forecast move across the Florida Peninsula along this stalled front through the weekend. Expect east-northeasterly winds to remain across the Atlantic until early next week. It could become quite gusty on Sunday and Monday, with gusts approaching 20 knots, as another low tries to potentially develop offshore early next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243122 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 201 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through today. Thereafter, a stationary front should remain to the south of the region through the weekend, and cause for unsettled conditions to begin on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The forecast area will remain under a broad H5 trough through today, shifting to east tonight. At the sfc, weak high pressure should linger across the region today. Forecast soundings indicate that PW values should increase today, especially in the wake of a sea breeze this afternoon. Given a bit more moisture than yesterday, a field of shallow cumulus should develop under SCT to BKN cirrus this afternoon. As temperature rise into the mid 80s across SC Lowcountry to the upper 80s across SE GA, weak instability should develop over SE GA. Isolated cells are forecast to develop across extreme SE GA during the heat of the afternoon along the sea breeze. Tonight, any convection that develops this afternoon should dissipate early this evening. The rest of the night is forecast to remain dry and cool. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad troughing will dominate aloft Friday and into the weekend, while shortwaves ripple across the southeastern states along the southern periphery of the troughing. At the surface a stalled front will be positioned just south of the forecast area, draped across the Florida Peninsula. Models depict a low developing along the stalled front, progressing northeastward across the Florida Peninsula towards offshore SC. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. However, models are in somewhat of a disagreement as to the strength and positioning of the developing low. Many forecast details will be impacted if the low remains further offshore or makes a closer approach of the coastline. The greatest chances of precipitation will be Saturday and Sunday afternoons, when shortwaves will be passing aloft. The severe threat remains low as there is very little instability. PWAT values are forecast to reach around 1.5 to 1.8", which according to SPC Climatology would be near the daily maximum. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall is possible, with the Weather Prediction Center outlooking the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Friday and through the weekend. Temperatures through the period will remain a few degrees below normal, owing to the increased cloud cover and precipitation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Not much change in the overall pattern is expected in the long term, with upper level troughing dominating over the east coast. Shortwave troughs will continue to ripple across the southeastern states through the middle of next week. At the surface another coastal low is forecast to develop along a remnant frontal boundary towards the middle of the week. There exists significant model disagreement in the placement of this low. However, increased precipitation chances will remain in the forecast through the period. Temperatures will continue their below normal trend. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 6Z TAFs: VFR. Cirrus clouds should remain scattered to broken through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through Friday. Brief periods of flight restrictions are possible this weekend and into early next week with showers/tstorms. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Winds should generally favor a east-northeast direction at around 10 kts. Seas should range between 2 to 3 ft. Friday through Tuesday: A stalled front will be present just south of the local waters through the weekend and into early next week. An area of low pressure located in the northern Gulf is forecast move across the Florida Peninsula along this stalled front through the weekend. Expect east-northeasterly winds to remain across the Atlantic until early next week. It could become quite gusty on Sunday and Monday, with gusts approaching 20 knots, as another low tries to potentially develop offshore early next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243111 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1233 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through Thursday. Thereafter, a stationary front should remain to the south of the region through the weekend, and cause for unsettled conditions to return on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Upper level cirrus will increase tonight from west to east as another shortwave begins to move across the region, with temperatures diurnally cooling into the mid 60s inland and mid 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... At the surface, high pressure will start to erode on Thursday as a mid-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes begins to strengthen and shift southeastward towards the region. Simultaneously, a weak low located over the Northern Gulf could develop and move slowly across the Florida Peninsula with a frontal boundary. This low should move offshore by Friday morning as this frontal boundary remains to the south through the weekend. This will increase the chances for precipitation on Friday and Saturday, with PoPs peaking 50-70% on Saturday afternoon. It`s still uncertain how much coverage there will be as it`s very dependent on the evolution of this low. However, the severe threat remains low as instability looks limited, but brief locally heavy rainfall is still possible. WPC has highlighted the region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for both of these days. Expect temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 80s on Thursday and Friday, and a low 80s on Saturday due to increased cloud/precip. chances. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As an amplified upper-lvl trough centers itself over the Eastern CONUS, causing possibly multiple shortwaves to pass through the region allow unsettled conditions to continue through early next week. Yet again, WPC has placed the region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Sunday. Additionally, another weak low pressure could form offshore early next week and continue on the onset of unsettled conditions. However, confidence remains low for the early part of next week as models continue to highly differ, but hopefully this improves in the next forecast cycle. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 6Z TAFs: VFR. Cirrus clouds should remain scattered to broken through the TAF period. Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions expected to largely prevail, with brief periods of flight restrictions possible by the end of the week as chances for showers/thunderstorms increase. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will continue to linger across the marine zones into tonight. Winds should generally favor a northeast direction at around 10 kts. Seas should range around 2 ft. Beyond 40 nm from shore, seas could approach 3 ft at times. Near and offshore waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA have a chance (20-30%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing into the overnight hours. Thursday through Monday: As surface high pressure dominates the forecast, a weak area of low pressure located in the northern Gulf could move across the Florida Peninsula along a frontal boundary and then shift offshore by Friday morning. This frontal boundary should stay to the south of the region. Expect east-northeasterly winds to remain across the Atlantic until early next week. It could become quite gusty on Sunday and Monday as another low tries to potentially develop offshore early next week. Otherwise, no marine concerns are anticipated through this period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
