Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Charleston, SC (Charleston, SC Area) Selection: |
| #1261020 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 27.Feb.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1258 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A cold front will bring widespread rainfall to our area into this evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will bring widespread rainfall to our area into this evening. The mid-levels will consist of a shortwave moving over the Southeast U.S. into this evening, with multiple rounds of vorticity embedded. At the surface, a cold front currently west of our area will shift eastward, moving over our area late this afternoon and early this evening, then offshore overnight. There is plenty of moisture ahead of this front with PWATs peaking around 1.4". The combination of lift with the front and the moisture is supporting widespread rainfall across our area this afternoon. Some instability across coastal GA could produce a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Showers will shift eastward with the front. Far inland areas should dry out late this afternoon. Though, isolated showers should persist closer to the coast into the evening, and especially near the beaches into the night. Drier conditions are expected everywhere around daybreak Saturday as High pressure builds in from the west. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18Z TAFs: A cold front moving through our area this afternoon and evening will bring MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities along with showers. As the front shifts offshore this evening, showers will diminish. However, IFR should transition to LIFR as ceilings and visibilities lower. Conditions should improve towards the end of the TAF time period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are expected through Saturday afternoon, followed by VFR. The next chance of flight restrictions are late Sunday into Monday due to a passing cold front. && .MARINE... A cold front will move through our area into this evening, shifting offshore overnight. High pressure should prevail into the weekend. A dry cold front will bring elevated marine conditions early next week, followed by another area of High pressure. Surging of winds associated with this High will prompt Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic waters Monday and Monday night. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261004 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 651 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A passing cold front will result in widespread rainfall today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A passing cold front will result in widespread rainfall today. A shortwave aloft tracking across the Deep South will advance into the Southeast U.S. today, bringing multiple rounds of vorticity energy. A weak cold front, currently draped across the Upstate, will gradually sink southward across the forecast area through the day before pushing offshore this evening. Relatively deep moisture, with precipitable water values around 1.3-1.4 inches, will remain in place during the passage of the front and support widespread shower development. The heaviest rainfall is expected this morning through the afternoon, with some lingering showers continuing into the evening. Once the front pushes offshore this evening, most of the rainfall will diminish as drier air filters in behind it and high pressure builds. Showers will generally be light to moderate, producing enough to drop a healthy amount of much needed rain. Rainfall totals are forecast to range from one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch. The lowest totals are expected along the coast, with higher amounts inland, particularly across the CSRA and the South Carolina Midlands. Locations across northern Berkeley, Dorchester, and Colleton counties could receive close to one inch of rainfall. While showers will be the primary precipitation type, weak instability (CAPE values around 100-300 J/kg) across extreme southeast Georgia could produce an isolated thunderstorm in the late morning/early afternoon, mainly south of Savannah and near the Altamaha River. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Light to moderate shower activity is expected to spread across the area today, producing prevailing MVFR conditions at CHS/JZI through at least 15Z Friday, and TEMPO MVFR conditions at SAV until 16Z Friday. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate to IFR late morning into afternoon hours at all terminals, although trends could lead to delaying the arrival of IFR a few hours into the afternoon. Shower activity should end with cold fropa early-mid evening, but IFR cigs are likely to persist following the front through 12Z Saturday. There are also hints that vsbys could lower post fropa overnight, generally in the 3-6SM range, but confidence is too low to include prevailing groups with vsbys below 6SM at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs are likely at all terminals through around daybreak Saturday, until dry high pressure takes over with improving cigs to VFR by late Saturday morning. VFR conditions should then prevail Sunday into Monday. The next chance of flight restrictions arrive late Monday and Tuesday with a passing cold front next week. && .MARINE... Today through Sunday: No marine concerns are expected through the period. A cold front will approach the area late today and likely shift offshore this evening, helping produce northerly winds around 15 kt while seas range between 2-3 ft. High pressure will then spread across the region through the weekend with conditions that remain below Small Craft Advisory levels into early next week. Monday and Tuesday: A cold front should shift south across the Carolinas early next week with high pressure wedging into the area and creating a strong pressure gradient across coastal waters. Northerly winds could surge to around 25 kt with seas building up to 6-8 ft. Small Craft Advisories could eventually be needed across a majority of local waters. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1260983 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 131 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 has been updated to reflect ongoing rainfall trends. The Aviation section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance and extended forecast. The Marine section has been updated for Small Craft potential next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A passing cold front will result in widespread rainfall today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A passing cold front will result in widespread rainfall today. A shortwave aloft tracking across the Deep South will advance into the Southeast U.S. today, bringing multiple rounds of vorticity energy. A weak cold front, currently draped across the Upstate, will gradually sink southward across the forecast area through the day before pushing offshore this evening. Relatively deep moisture, with precipitable water values around 1.3-1.4 inches, will remain in place during the passage of the front and support widespread shower development. The heaviest rainfall is expected this morning through the afternoon, with some lingering showers continuing into the evening. Once the front pushes offshore this evening, most of the rainfall will diminish as drier air filters in behind it and high pressure builds. Showers will generally be light to moderate, producing enough to drop a healthy amount of much needed rain. Rainfall totals are forecast to range from one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch. The lowest totals are expected along the coast, with higher amounts inland, particularly across the CSRA and the South Carolina Midlands. Locations across northern Berkeley, Dorchester, and Colleton counties could receive close to one inch of rainfall. While showers will be the primary precipitation type, weak instability (CAPE values around 100-300 J/kg) across extreme southeast Georgia could produce an isolated thunderstorm in the late morning/early afternoon, mainly south of Savannah and near the Altamaha River. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals prior to daybreak, but TEMPO MVFR vsbys associated with showers moving into the area overnight are possible at all terminals (highest chances at CHS/JZI). Light to moderate shower activity is then expected to spread across the area during daylight hours, producing MVFR conditions at all terminals through 14Z Friday, before IFR cigs arrive thereafter and persist through the afternoon and evening. Shower activity should end with cold fropa early-mid evening, but IFR cigs are likely to persist following the front through 06Z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs are likely at all terminals through around daybreak Saturday, until dry high pressure takes over with improving cigs to VFR by late Saturday morning. VFR conditions should then prevail Sunday into Monday. The next chance of flight restrictions arrive late Monday and Tuesday with a passing cold front next week. && .MARINE... Today through Sunday: No marine concerns are expected through the period. A cold front will approach the area late today and likely shift offshore this evening, helping produce northerly winds around 15 kt while seas range between 2-3 ft. High pressure will then spread across the region through the weekend with conditions that remain below Small Craft Advisory levels into early next week. Monday and Tuesday: A cold front should shift south across the Carolinas early next week with high pressure wedging into the area and creating a strong pressure gradient across coastal waters. Northerly winds could surge to around 25 kt with seas building up to 6-8 ft. Small Craft Advisories could eventually be needed across a majority of local waters. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
