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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Charleston, SC (Charleston, SC Area) Selection: |
| #1225734 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:30 PM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1116 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail this weekend, before a cold front impacts the area on Monday. High pressure will then return for the middle of next week. Another cold front could move through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... No significant changes were made with the late evening update. Surface obs indicate that winds have decreased, but are still generally southerly 5 to 10 mph, except 10 to 15 mph closer to the coast as the region remains between high pressure just offshore and a cold front well to the west. The winds are expected will also help to keep temperatures from dropping too much, with lows staying unseasonably mild in the mid to upper 60s, warmest closest to the coast. The record high minimums at KCHS, KCXM and KSAV could all be challenged for tonight. In fact, current indications are that new record high minimum temperatures will be set or tied for KCHS and KCXM for April 5. See the Climate section below or additional details. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: A deep-layered ridge will be centered off the Southeast Coast, holding firm across the local area throughout the day. Southerly sfc winds along the western periphery of the sfc high along with mostly sunny conditions should favor temps that warm into the upper 80s away from the beaches and even around 90 degrees across Southeast Georgia. A sea breeze will keep temps a bit cooler along the beaches, generally in the mid-upper 70s. Large-scale subsidence should keep most areas dry through the daytime and possibly through evening hours. The ridge will eventually nudge eastward with the approach of a longwave trough and associated cold front reaching the Appalachians late night. Southerly winds will continue to advect deeper moisture across the region ahead of the front overnight and temps are expected to remain mild within the warm-sector well ahead of the front. A few showers could arrival across inland areas after midnight, but most precip is expected to arrive after daybreak. Lows should range in the mid-upper 70s. Monday: A deep-layered ridge positioned near the Southeast Coast will be forced east during the day as a longwave tough and associated sfc cold front approach the region late morning into afternoon. Latest model consensus suggests convection/precip arrival being delayed a few hours, allowing sfc temps to warm into the mid- upper 80s across a large portion of the local area. However, favorable isentropic lift suggests cloud coverage to be more widespread well inland by late morning, limiting highs in the mid- upper 70s. Deep moisture (1.75 to 2 inch PWATs) coincident with enhanced forcing associated with h5 shortwave energy and favorable region of the upper lvl jet should result in increasing shower and/or thunderstorm coverage from west to east late morning and into early evening hours. Ample shear (0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) and modest instability (SBCAPE 750-1000 J/kg) could support a few strong and/or severe thunderstorms ahead/along the passing front, with unidirectional wind profiles, stronger low-lvl lapse rates (around 7.5 C/km) and 40-50 kt low-lvl wind fields suggesting the primary concern to be damaging wind gusts. The front is likely to shift offshore by evening hours, putting an end to the severe weather risk. Precip could linger behind the front, but likely comes to an end shortly after midnight for most areas. Temps will be some 10-20 degrees colder than the previous night behind the front, with lows generally dipping into the mid-upper 40s inland and to the low- mid 50s near the coast. Tuesday: Dry high pressure will build across the Southeast United States along the base of a mid-lvl trough slowly exiting off the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast Coast. Temps will be considerably cooler with light northerly winds in place. In general, highs should range in the mid-upper 60s north to around 70 degrees south near coastal Georgia. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build Tuesday night into Wednesday, with its center gradually shifting from the Ohio Valley, across the mid- Atlantic and then eventually offshore by Thursday. Dry and cool conditions will continue. The next cold front could approach the region on Friday, bringing rain chances back in the forecast. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06/00Z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Gusty winds from the south-southwest are expected to return later Sunday morning and persist through the day with gusts 25 to 30 kt possible all terminals, especially KCHS and KJZI. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday at all terminals with the approach of a cold front. Flight restrictions are likely Monday into Monday night as showers and/or thunderstorms impact the terminals with/near fropa. VFR conditions will then prevail at all terminals by mid- late morning Tuesday. && .MARINE... Rest of Tonight: No significant changes were made to late evening update. Gusty winds have decreased over Charleston Harbor, but still some gusts of 15 to 20 knots closer to the coast of the Atlantic waters. Given the pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong all night, feel winds of 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to around 20 knots will persist through the night. Seas will build to 3-5 ft across the nearshore waters and to 4-6 ft over the Georgia offshore waters. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore Georgia waters for seas reaching 6 feet. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty south winds are expected Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the area. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters Sunday, mainly due to 6 ft seas, but advisories will likely need to be expanded across nearshore waters late day/early evening. Winds/seas are likely to be strongest/highest Monday along/near the passing cold front, before improving to sub-advisory criteria early Tuesday. Winds will then turn to the north on Tuesday following fropa with improvement in marine conditions, although it will be short-lived as another wind surge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. Winds and seas should subside for Thursday. Rip Currents: Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support a Moderate Risk for rip currents at the beaches this afternoon and again for Sunday as gusty winds and 7-8 second swells persist. An elevated risk for rip currents will persist into Monday. && .CLIMATE... The low temperature so far today for KCHS (Charleston Into Airport) is 65 degrees. If this low temperature holds through 1 AM EDT Sunday, it will tie the record high minimum for the date last set in 1967. The low temperature so far today for KCXM (Waterfront Park/Downtown Charleston) is 69 degrees. If this low temperature holds through 1 AM EDT Sunday, it will break the previous record high minimum of 67 set in 2023. Record High Temperatures: April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KCXM: 70/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for Ames. && $$ |
| #1225717 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:27 PM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 823 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail this weekend, before a cold front impacts the area on Monday. High pressure will then return for the middle of next week. Another cold front could move through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Gusty winds from the afternoon are decreasing rapidly after sunset as boundary layer mixing shuts down. The region will remain between high pressure just offshore and a cold front well to the west in the lower MS River Valley. This will help keep winds in the 5-15 mph range through the night. The winds will also help to keep temperatures from dropping too much, with lows staying unseasonably mild in the mid to upper 60s, warmest closest to the coast. The record high minimums at KCHS, KCXM and KSAV could all be challenged for tonight. In fact, current indications are that new record high minimum temperatures will be set or tied for KCHS and KCXM for April 5. See the Climate section below or additional details. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: A deep-layered ridge will be centered off the Southeast Coast, holding firm across the local area throughout the day. Southerly sfc winds along the western periphery of the sfc high along with mostly sunny conditions should favor temps that warm into the upper 80s away from the beaches and even around 90 degrees across Southeast Georgia. A sea breeze will keep temps a bit cooler along the beaches, generally in the mid-upper 70s. Large-scale subsidence should keep most areas dry through the daytime and possibly through evening hours. The ridge will eventually nudge eastward with the approach of a longwave trough and associated cold front reaching the Appalachians late night. Southerly winds will continue to advect deeper moisture across the region ahead of the front overnight and temps are expected to remain mild within the warm-sector well ahead of the front. A few showers could arrival across inland areas after midnight, but most precip is expected to arrive after daybreak. Lows should range in the mid-upper 70s. Monday: A deep-layered ridge positioned near the Southeast Coast will be forced east during the day as a longwave tough and associated sfc cold front approach the region late morning into afternoon. Latest model consensus suggests convection/precip arrival being delayed a few hours, allowing sfc temps to warm into the mid- upper 80s across a large portion of the local area. However, favorable isentropic lift suggests cloud coverage to be more widespread well inland by late morning, limiting highs in the mid- upper 70s. Deep moisture (1.75 to 2 inch PWATs) coincident with enhanced forcing associated with h5 shortwave energy and favorable region of the upper lvl jet should result in increasing shower and/or thunderstorm coverage from west to east late morning and into early evening hours. Ample shear (0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) and modest instability (SBCAPE 750-1000 J/kg) could support a few strong and/or severe thunderstorms ahead/along the passing front, with unidirectional wind profiles, stronger low-lvl lapse rates (around 7.5 C/km) and 40-50 kt low-lvl wind fields suggesting the primary concern to be damaging wind gusts. The front is likely to shift offshore by evening hours, putting an end to the severe weather risk. Precip could linger behind the front, but likely comes to an end shortly after midnight for most areas. Temps will be some 10-20 degrees colder than the previous night behind the front, with lows generally dipping into the mid-upper 40s inland and to the low- mid 50s near the coast. Tuesday: Dry high pressure will build across the Southeast United States along the base of a mid-lvl trough slowly exiting off the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast Coast. Temps will be considerably cooler with light northerly winds in place. In general, highs should range in the mid-upper 60s north to around 70 degrees south near coastal Georgia. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build Tuesday night into Wednesday, with its center gradually shifting from the Ohio Valley, across the mid- Atlantic and then eventually offshore by Thursday. Dry and cool conditions will continue. The next cold front could approach the region on Friday, bringing rain chances back in the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06/00Z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Gusty winds from the south-southwest are expected to return later Sunday morning and persist through the day with gusts 25 to 30 kt possible all terminals, especially KCHS and KJZI. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday at all terminals with the approach of a cold front. Flight restrictions are likely Monday into Monday night as showers and/or thunderstorms impact the terminals with/near fropa. VFR conditions will then prevail at all terminals by mid- late morning Tuesday. && .MARINE... Tonight: No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Gusty winds in the Charleston Harbor have decreased, but will likely remain in the 10-15 knot range all night as the southwest pressure gradient is maintained between higher pressure to the southeast and low pressure well to the west associated with a slow moving cold front. Across the rest of the Atlantic waters, winds will remains elevated through the night with speeds averaging 10 to 15 kt with gusts some gusts around 20 kt. Seas will build to 3-5 ft across the nearshore waters and to 4-6 ft over the Georgia offshore waters. Small Craft Advisory is in effect beginning this evening for the Georgia offshore waters for seas reaching 6 feet. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty south winds are expected Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the area. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters Sunday, mainly due to 6 ft seas, but advisories will likely need to be expanded across nearshore waters late day/early evening. Winds/seas are likely to be strongest/highest Monday along/near the passing cold front, before improving to sub-advisory criteria early Tuesday. Winds will then turn to the north on Tuesday following fropa with improvement in marine conditions, although it will be short-lived as another wind surge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. Winds and seas should subside for Thursday. Rip Currents: Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support a Moderate Risk for rip currents at the beaches this afternoon and again for Sunday as gusty winds and 7-8 second swells persist. An elevated risk for rip currents will persist into Monday. && .CLIMATE... The low temperature so far today for KCHS (Charleston Into Airport) is 65 degrees. If this low temperature holds through 1 AM EDT Sunday, it will tie the record high minimum for the date last set in 1967. The low temperature so far today for KCXM (Waterfront Park/Downtown Charleston) is 69 degrees. If this low temperature holds through 1 AM EDT Sunday, it will break the previous record high minimum of 67 set in 2023. Record High Temperatures: April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KCXM: 70/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for Ames. && $$ |
| #1225694 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 337 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail this weekend, before a cold front impacts the area on Monday. High pressure will then return for the middle of next week. Another cold front could move through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Gusty winds associated with the inland moving sea breeze will diminish after sunset as the circulation meanders farther inland and gradually breaks down. Winds will tend to stay up overnight as the pressure gradient between strong, deep-layered high pressure centered well offshore the Southeast U.S. coast and a strong cold front moving out of the lower Mississippi Valley and into the far western portions of the Deep South remains fairly enhanced. This will result in another seasonably warm night with lows only dropping into the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast and along the barrier islands. The record high minimums at KCHS, KCXM and KSAV could all be challenged. See the Climate section below or additional details. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: A deep-layered ridge will be centered off the Southeast Coast, holding firm across the local area throughout the day. Southerly sfc winds along the western periphery of the sfc high along with mostly sunny conditions should favor temps that warm into the upper 80s away from the beaches and even around 90 degrees across Southeast Georgia. A sea breeze will keep temps a bit cooler along the beaches, generally in the mid-upper 70s. Large-scale subsidence should keep most areas dry through the daytime and possibly through evening hours. The ridge will eventually nudge eastward with the approach of a longwave trough and associated cold front reaching the Appalachians late night. Southerly winds will continue to advect deeper moisture across the region ahead of the front overnight and temps are expected to remain mild within the warm-sector well ahead of the front. A few showers could arrival across inland areas after midnight, but most precip is expected to arrive after daybreak. Lows should range in the mid-upper 70s. Monday: A deep-layered ridge positioned near the Southeast Coast will be forced east during the day as a longwave tough and associated sfc cold front approach the region late morning into afternoon. Latest model consensus suggests convection/precip arrival being delayed a few hours, allowing sfc temps to warm into the mid- upper 80s across a large portion of the local area. However, favorable isentropic lift suggests cloud coverage to be more widespread well inland by late morning, limiting highs in the mid- upper 70s. Deep moisture (1.75 to 2 inch PWATs) coincident with enhanced forcing associated with h5 shortwave energy and favorable region of the upper lvl jet should result in increasing shower and/or thunderstorm coverage from west to east late morning and into early evening hours. Ample shear (0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) and modest instability (SBCAPE 750-1000 J/kg) could support a few strong and/or severe thunderstorms ahead/along the passing front, with unidirectional wind profiles, stronger low-lvl lapse rates (around 7.5 C/km) and 40-50 kt low-lvl wind fields suggesting the primary concern to be damaging wind gusts. The front is likely to shift offshore by evening hours, putting an end to the severe weather risk. Precip could linger behind the front, but likely comes to an end shortly after midnight for most areas. Temps will be some 10-20 degrees colder than the previous night behind the front, with lows generally dipping into the mid-upper 40s inland and to the low- mid 50s near the coast. Tuesday: Dry high pressure will build across the Southeast United States along the base of a mid-lvl trough slowly exiting off the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast Coast. Temps will be considerably cooler with light northerly winds in place. In general, highs should range in the mid-upper 60s north to around 70 degrees south near coastal Georgia. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build Tuesday night into Wednesday, with its center gradually shifting from the Ohio Valley, across the mid- Atlantic and then eventually offshore by Thursday. Dry and cool conditions will continue. The next cold front could approach the region on Friday, bringing rain chances back in the forecast. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 05/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Gusty winds with gusts near 20 kt will impact all three terminals through sunset as the sea breeze pushes through. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday at all terminals with the approach of a cold front. Flight restrictions are likely Monday into Monday night as showers and/or thunderstorms impact the terminals with/near fropa. VFR conditions will then prevail at all terminals by mid- late morning Tuesday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Gusty winds in the Charleston Harbor will gradually diminish after sunset as the sea breeze circulation breaks down. Winds across all waters will remains elevated through the night with speeds averaging 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. Seas will build to 3-5 ft across the nearshore waters and to 4-6 ft over the Georgia offshore waters. Small Craft Advisory is in effect beginning this evening for the Georgia offshore waters. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty south winds are expected Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the area. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters Sunday, mainly due to 6 ft seas, but advisories will likely need to be expanded across nearshore waters late day/early evening. Winds/seas are likely to be strongest/highest Monday along/near the passing cold front, before improving to sub-advisory criteria early Tuesday. Winds will then turn to the north on Tuesday following fropa with improvement in marine conditions, although it will be short-lived as another wind surge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. Winds and seas should subside for Thursday. Rip Currents: Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support a Moderate Risk for rip currents at the beaches this afternoon and again for Sunday as gusty winds and 7-8 second swells persist. An elevated risk for rip currents will persist into Monday. && .CLIMATE... The low temperatures so far today for KCHS (Charleston Intl Airport) is 65 degrees. If this low temperature holds through 1 AM EDT Sunday, it will tie the record high minimum for the date last set in 1967. The low temperatures so far today for KCXM (Waterfront Park/Downtown Charleston) is 69 degrees. If this low temperature holds through 1 AM EDT Sunday, it will break the previous record high minimum of 67 set in 2023. Record High Temperatures: April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KCXM: 70/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1225665 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 PM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1206 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail this weekend, before a cold front impacts the area on Monday. High pressure will then return for the middle of next week. Another cold front could move through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No changes were needed for the noon update. Today: The region will remain along the western periphery of strong, deep-layered subtropical high pressure centered well offshore of the Southeast States. Broad subsidence is in place this morning and resulting capping inversion was sampled well by the 05/12z KCHS raob. Model soundings keep a strong cap in place through the day. This will yield a continuation of rain- free conditions. The resultant sea breeze will begin to develop along the beaches by early afternoon and will propagate steadily inland through this evening. Gusty winds as high as 20-25 mph will occur within the sea breeze circulation itself. Highs from the upper 80s/near 90 well inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at the beaches look on track. Overall, only minor adjustments were needed for the mid-morning update. Tonight: A cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Gusty winds should end early this evening. However, the sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Southwest winds should remain between 5 to 10 mph through most of tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridge will hold into Sunday, although it will begin to weaken in advance of the next trough shifting towards the region. Best forcing remains well to the west through the daylight hours with large scale subsidence overhead, so a dry forecast prevails. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue as highs peak in the mid to upper 80s, even 90 in spots, away from the beaches. South winds will get gusty, with gusts 25-30 mph possible in the afternoon. Rain chances will start to increase from the west Sunday night, but activity should remain more isolated to scattered through daybreak and be mainly confined over the far interior. Temperatures will not fall all that much with cloud cover and winds present. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will approach and eventually pass through the area on Monday. Deep moisture (noted by PWats near or exceeding 1.75") coincident with lift from the incoming mid level trough and favorable upper jet position will lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. Timing has trended a tad slower, so highest PoPs are now largely highlighted in the afternoon and evening. Strong wind fields will be in place with deep layer shear increasing to over 50 knots which could promote storm organization, although instability is not particularly impressive with weak mid level lapse rates and CAPE progs in the vicinity of 500-750 J/kg. Regardless, a couple stronger to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Even outside of any storms, winds will again become gusty. This system will bring a good soaking rainfall with NBM showing 60-80% probability for greater than 1 inch over much of the area. Temperatures will be tricky with convection. A slower arrival time would indicate more time for warming and high temperature forecast is now largely 75-80F. Rain chances will then decrease through Monday night as activity shifts offshore and drier air advects in following fropa. All areas should be dry by daybreak. Dry and quiet weather is expected for Tuesday. Most notably will be the much cooler temperatures. Highs are forecast to top out in the 65-70 range which is a handful of degrees cooler than climo. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build Tuesday night into Wednesday, with its center gradually shifting from the Ohio Valley, across the mid- Atlantic and then eventually offshore by Thursday. Dry and cool conditions will continue. The next cold front could approach the region on Friday, bringing rain chances back in the forecast. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 05/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Gusty winds with gusts near 20 kt will impact all three terminals through sunset as the sea breeze pushes through. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday. Flight restrictions are likely Monday into Monday night as showers with a few tstms impact the area with a cold front. && .MARINE... Today: Winds in the Charleston Harbor were raised to 15-20 kt for this afternoon as a robust resultant sea breeze will kick winds up quite a bit there and along the land/sea interface. Over the coastal waters, winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt possible near the beaches. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Tonight: A cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. The sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Winds should persist between 10 to 15 kts, gusts around 20 kts across the Atlantic waters. Wave heights will build to 3 to 4 ft across the nearshore waters with 5 to 6 ft across the outer GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the outer GA waters to highlight the elevated seas and gusty winds. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty south winds are expected Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the area. Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters, with an expansion likely needed for at least portions of the remaining zones starting later Sunday due to both winds and seas. Winds will turn to the north on Tuesday following fropa with some improvement in marine conditions, although it will be short-lived as another wind surge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds. Winds and seas should subside for Thursday. Rip Currents: Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support another moderate risk for rip currents at the beaches today. The moderate risk will persist into Sunday as the synoptic flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. Local rip current calculator hints at some potential for a High Risk, but looks borderline so maintained a Moderate Risk for now. An elevated risk of rip currents will persist into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1225651 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 AM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 925 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail this weekend, before a cold front impacts the area on Monday. High pressure will then return for the middle of next week. Another cold front could move through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: The region will remain along the western periphery of strong, deep-layered subtropical high pressure centered well offshore of the Southeast States. Broad subsidence is in place this morning and resulting capping inversion was sampled well by the 05/12z KCHS raob. Model soundings keep a strong cap in place through the day. This will yield a continuation of rain- free conditions. The resultant sea breeze will begin to develop along the beaches by early afternoon and will propagate steadily inland through this evening. Gusty winds as high as 20-25 mph will occur within the sea breeze circulation itself. Highs from the upper 80s/near 90 well inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at the beaches look on track. Overall, only minor adjustments were needed for the mid-morning update. Tonight: A cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Gusty winds should end early this evening. However, the sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Southwest winds should remain between 5 to 10 mph through most of tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridge will hold into Sunday, although it will begin to weaken in advance of the next trough shifting towards the region. Best forcing remains well to the west through the daylight hours with large scale subsidence overhead, so a dry forecast prevails. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue as highs peak in the mid to upper 80s, even 90 in spots, away from the beaches. South winds will get gusty, with gusts 25-30 mph possible in the afternoon. Rain chances will start to increase from the west Sunday night, but activity should remain more isolated to scattered through daybreak and be mainly confined over the far interior. Temperatures will not fall all that much with cloud cover and winds present. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will approach and eventually pass through the area on Monday. Deep moisture (noted by PWats near or exceeding 1.75") coincident with lift from the incoming mid level trough and favorable upper jet position will lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. Timing has trended a tad slower, so highest PoPs are now largely highlighted in the afternoon and evening. Strong wind fields will be in place with deep layer shear increasing to over 50 knots which could promote storm organization, although instability is not particularly impressive with weak mid level lapse rates and CAPE progs in the vicinity of 500-750 J/kg. Regardless, a couple stronger to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Even outside of any storms, winds will again become gusty. This system will bring a good soaking rainfall with NBM showing 60-80% probability for greater than 1 inch over much of the area. Temperatures will be tricky with convection. A slower arrival time would indicate more time for warming and high temperature forecast is now largely 75-80F. Rain chances will then decrease through Monday night as activity shifts offshore and drier air advects in following fropa. All areas should be dry by daybreak. Dry and quiet weather is expected for Tuesday. Most notably will be the much cooler temperatures. Highs are forecast to top out in the 65-70 range which is a handful of degrees cooler than climo. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build Tuesday night into Wednesday, with its center gradually shifting from the Ohio Valley, across the mid- Atlantic and then eventually offshore by Thursday. Dry and cool conditions will continue. The next cold front could approach the region on Friday, bringing rain chances back in the forecast. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite showed a large area of IFR ceilings over SE GA, drifting toward KSAV. In addition, recent observations at KCHS and KJZI indicated SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings. Each TAF will feature a TEMPO from 12-14Z to indicate a period of restrictive ceilings. A sea breeze is timed to push across the terminals during the mid-day. Following the sea breeze, south winds should strengthen to around 15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Gusty conditions should end around 23Z, with south winds around 10 kts. South winds are forecast to remain around 10 kts through tonight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday. Flight restrictions are likely Monday into Monday night as showers with a few tstms impact the area with a cold front. && .MARINE... Today: Winds in the Charleston Harbor were raised to 15-20 kt for this afternoon as a robust resultant sea breeze will kick winds up quite a bit there and along the land/sea interface. Over the coastal waters, winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt possible near the beaches. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Tonight: A cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. The sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Winds should persist between 10 to 15 kts, gusts around 20 kts across the Atlantic waters. Wave heights will build to 3 to 4 ft across the nearshore waters with 5 to 6 ft across the outer GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the outer GA waters to highlight the elevated seas and gusty winds. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty south winds are expected Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the area. Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters, with an expansion likely needed for at least portions of the remaining zones starting later Sunday due to both winds and seas. Winds will turn to the north on Tuesday following fropa with some improvement in marine conditions, although it will be short-lived as another wind surge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds. Winds and seas should subside for Thursday. Rip Currents: Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support another moderate risk for rip currents at the beaches today. The moderate risk will persist into Sunday as the synoptic flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. Local rip current calculator hints at some potential for a High Risk, but looks borderline so maintained a Moderate Risk for now. An elevated risk of rip currents will persist into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1225644 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 AM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 710 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail this weekend, before a cold front impacts the area on Monday. High pressure will then return for the middle of next week. Another cold front could move through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... At daybreak, IR satellite and observations indicated a large patch of low ceilings and fog across SE GA, drifting and developing to the north. The forecast update will feature adjustments to hourly sky, temperature, and wind. Fog should dissipate during the first hour or two of daylight. A 590+ DM ridge will remain centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas as a closed low drifts over the Southern Plains today. At the sfc, a cold front should push east across the Arklatex and Tennessee Valley today as high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic. This pattern should support SSW winds across the forecast area through today. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop during the mid-day hours and advance inland through this afternoon. As the sea breeze pushes inland, SW winds are forecast to strengthen to 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. Given mild thicknesses, partly sunny conditions, and timing of the sea breeze, temperatures should remain comparable to values reached yesterday. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid to upper 80s inland to around 80 along the coast. Tonight, a cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Gusty winds should end early this evening. However, the sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Southwest winds should remain between 5 to 10 mph through most of tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridge will hold into Sunday, although it will begin to weaken in advance of the next trough shifting towards the region. Best forcing remains well to the west through the daylight hours with large scale subsidence overhead, so a dry forecast prevails. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue as highs peak in the mid to upper 80s, even 90 in spots, away from the beaches. South winds will get gusty, with gusts 25-30 mph possible in the afternoon. Rain chances will start to increase from the west Sunday night, but activity should remain more isolated to scattered through daybreak and be mainly confined over the far interior. Temperatures will not fall all that much with cloud cover and winds present. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will approach and eventually pass through the area on Monday. Deep moisture (noted by PWats near or exceeding 1.75") coincident with lift from the incoming mid level trough and favorable upper jet position will lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. Timing has trended a tad slower, so highest PoPs are now largely highlighted in the afternoon and evening. Strong wind fields will be in place with deep layer shear increasing to over 50 knots which could promote storm organization, although instability is not particularly impressive with weak mid level lapse rates and CAPE progs in the vicinity of 500-750 J/kg. Regardless, a couple stronger to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Even outside of any storms, winds will again become gusty. This system will bring a good soaking rainfall with NBM showing 60-80% probability for greater than 1 inch over much of the area. Temperatures will be tricky with convection. A slower arrival time would indicate more time for warming and high temperature forecast is now largely 75-80F. Rain chances will then decrease through Monday night as activity shifts offshore and drier air advects in following fropa. All areas should be dry by daybreak. Dry and quiet weather is expected for Tuesday. Most notably will be the much cooler temperatures. Highs are forecast to top out in the 65-70 range which is a handful of degrees cooler than climo. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build Tuesday night into Wednesday, with its center gradually shifting from the Ohio Valley, across the mid- Atlantic and then eventually offshore by Thursday. Dry and cool conditions will continue. The next cold front could approach the region on Friday, bringing rain chances back in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite showed a large area of IFR ceilings over SE GA, drifting toward KSAV. In addition, recent observations at KCHS and KJZI indicated SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings. Each TAF will feature a TEMPO from 12-14Z to indicate a period of restrictive ceilings. A sea breeze is timed to push across the terminals during the mid-day. Following the sea breeze, south winds should strengthen to around 15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Gusty conditions should end around 23Z, with south winds around 10 kts. South winds are forecast to remain around 10 kts through tonight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday. Flight restrictions are likely Monday into Monday night as showers with a few tstms impact the area with a cold front. && .MARINE... Today: At the sfc, a cold front should push east across the Arklatex and Tennessee Valley today as high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic. This pattern should support SSW winds across the forecast area through today. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop during the mid-day hours and advance inland through this afternoon. CHS Harbor should see gradually strengthen winds through this morning, gusts around 20 kts are forecast through the afternoon hours. Over the Atlantic waters, winds should generally remain between 10 to 15 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 3 to 4 ft. Tonight: A cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. The sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Winds should persist between 10 to 15 kts, gusts around 20 kts across the Atlantic waters. Wave heights will build to 3 to 4 ft across the nearshore waters with 5 to 6 ft across the outer GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the outer GA waters to highlight the elevated seas and gusty winds. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty south winds are expected Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the area. Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters, with an expansion likely needed for at least portions of the remaining zones starting later Sunday due to both winds and seas. Winds will turn to the north on Tuesday following fropa with some improvement in marine conditions, although it will be short-lived as another wind surge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds. Winds and seas should subside for Thursday. Rip Currents: Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support another moderate risk for rip currents at the beaches today. The moderate risk will persist into Sunday as the synoptic flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. Local rip current calculator hints at some potential for a High Risk, but looks borderline so maintained a Moderate Risk for now. An elevated risk of rip currents will persist into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1225615 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 335 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail this weekend, before a cold front impacts the area on Monday. High pressure will then return for the middle of next week. Another cold front could move through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A 590+ DM ridge will remain centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas as a closed low drifts over the Southern Plains today. At the sfc, a cold front should push east across the Arklatex and Tennessee Valley today as high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic. This pattern should support SSW winds across the forecast area through today. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop during the mid-day hours and advance inland through this afternoon. As the sea breeze pushes inland, SW winds are forecast to strengthen to 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. Given mild thicknesses, partly sunny conditions, and timing of the sea breeze, temperatures should remain comparable to values reached yesterday. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid to upper 80s inland to around 80 along the coast. Tonight, a cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Gusty winds should end early this evening. However, the sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Southwest winds should remain between 5 to 10 mph through most of tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridge will hold into Sunday, although it will begin to weaken in advance of the next trough shifting towards the region. Best forcing remains well to the west through the daylight hours with large scale subsidence overhead, so a dry forecast prevails. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue as highs peak in the mid to upper 80s, even 90 in spots, away from the beaches. South winds will get gusty, with gusts 25-30 mph possible in the afternoon. Rain chances will start to increase from the west Sunday night, but activity should remain more isolated to scattered through daybreak and be mainly confined over the far interior. Temperatures will not fall all that much with cloud cover and winds present. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will approach and eventually pass through the area on Monday. Deep moisture (noted by PWats near or exceeding 1.75") coincident with lift from the incoming mid level trough and favorable upper jet position will lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. Timing has trended a tad slower, so highest PoPs are now largely highlighted in the afternoon and evening. Strong wind fields will be in place with deep layer shear increasing to over 50 knots which could promote storm organization, although instability is not particularly impressive with weak mid level lapse rates and CAPE progs in the vicinity of 500-750 J/kg. Regardless, a couple stronger to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Even outside of any storms, winds will again become gusty. This system will bring a good soaking rainfall with NBM showing 60-80% probability for greater than 1 inch over much of the area. Temperatures will be tricky with convection. A slower arrival time would indicate more time for warming and high temperature forecast is now largely 75-80F. Rain chances will then decrease through Monday night as activity shifts offshore and drier air advects in following fropa. All areas should be dry by daybreak. Dry and quiet weather is expected for Tuesday. Most notably will be the much cooler temperatures. Highs are forecast to top out in the 65-70 range which is a handful of degrees cooler than climo. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build Tuesday night into Wednesday, with its center gradually shifting from the Ohio Valley, across the mid- Atlantic and then eventually offshore by Thursday. Dry and cool conditions will continue. The next cold front could approach the region on Friday, bringing rain chances back in the forecast. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 6Z TAFs: A weak pressure gradient may support a light south with across the terminals through daybreak Saturday. However, if the wind speeds dips below 3 kts then a period of ground fog is possible at each terminal around daybreak. A sea breeze is timed to push across the terminals during the mid-day. Following the sea breeze, south winds should strengthen to around 15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Gusty conditions should end around 23Z, with south winds around 10 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday. Flight restrictions are likely Monday into Monday night as showers with a few tstms impact the area with a cold front. && .MARINE... Today: At the sfc, a cold front should push east across the Arklatex and Tennessee Valley today as high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic. This pattern should support SSW winds across the forecast area through today. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop during the mid-day hours and advance inland through this afternoon. CHS Harbor should see gradually strengthen winds through this morning, gusts around 20 kts are forecast through the afternoon hours. Over the Atlantic waters, winds should generally remain between 10 to 15 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 3 to 4 ft. Tonight: A cold front is forecast to push over the Deep South and eastern Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. The sfc pressure gradient across the forecast area is expected to range between 2 to 3 mbs. Winds should persist between 10 to 15 kts, gusts around 20 kts across the Atlantic waters. Wave heights will build to 3 to 4 ft across the nearshore waters with 5 to 6 ft across the outer GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the outer GA waters to highlight the elevated seas and gusty winds. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty south winds are expected Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches the area. Small Craft Advisory will continue for the outer Georgia waters, with an expansion likely needed for at least portions of the remaining zones starting later Sunday due to both winds and seas. Winds will turn to the north on Tuesday following fropa with some improvement in marine conditions, although it will be short-lived as another wind surge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds. Winds and seas should subside for Thursday. Rip Currents: Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support another moderate risk for rip currents at the beaches today. The moderate risk will persist into Sunday as the synoptic flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. Local rip current calculator hints at some potential for a High Risk, but looks borderline so maintained a Moderate Risk for now. An elevated risk of rip currents will persist into Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1225603 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 05.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 136 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic will prevail into this weekend. A cold front will push offshore Monday with high pressure prevailing for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Through day break Saturday, the rest of the night should feature passing high clouds with light south winds. However, high resolution guidance indicates that there is some potential for sea fog to develop off the Charleston County coast during the pre-dawn hours, drifting inland during the early morning. Patchy fog is possible along the coast. Further inland, if winds dip below 3 mph, ground fog or patchy fog may develop. Low temperatures may generally range in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday and Sunday: An anomalously strong upper high centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will peak in intensity Saturday before meandering a bit farther offshore Sunday. This will keep the westward extension of the Bermuda High in place across the Carolinas and Georgia. Model soundings depict this rather well with a pronounced capping inversion noted both across the coastal corridor and the interior. While the genesis of robust resultant sea breeze circulations is likely both afternoons as highs warm into the mid 80s to around 90 away from the beaches, shower activity appears highly unlikely given the broad subsidence in place aloft. Pops around 0% were held for Saturday then rise to 0-10% during the day Sunday as the cap begins to weaken and low-level theta-e begins to increase out ahead of an approaching cold front. By Sunday night, the cap is mostly gone as upper forcing begins to increase from the west in response to a sharp southern stream upper trough moving across the lower Mississippi Valley. While most of the shower activity will remain to the west for much of the night, enough warm air advection/isentropic lift should be in place to support some degree of shower activity after midnight. Rain chances will certainly ramp up closer to daybreak Monday as the primary line of showers/tstms with the approaching cold front draws closer to far interior areas. Lows both Saturday night and Sunday night will range from the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast and barrier islands. Monday: The approaching southern stream upper trough looks a bit more amplified in the various guidance compared to yesterday`s runs. Although the trough`s orientation looks to maintain a positive slope prior to phasing with the northern shortwave digging across the Great Lakes, model cross section suggest DCVA induced forcing, possibly with some contributions form the right entrance region of a departing 130+kt jet streak, will be fairly strong with modest deep- layered UVVs noted coincident with a nearly saturated column up through 200 hPa. This should result in a maintenance of a large line of showers/tstms with the approaching cold front. This activity is targeted to reach western areas during the morning hours and push east to the coast as the day progresses. Pops were increased slightly to 90-100%. High temperatures are somewhat uncertain given timing of the approaching line of convection will have an impact. Highs look to peak in the lower 70s well inland to the upper 70s/near 80 just inland from the beaches. Net mixed-layer instability will likely remain muted given the fairly moist profiles in place, but enough forcing should be present to support at least isolated to scattered tstms at times with possibly a slightly greater tstm coverage occurring just inland from the coast where warmer surface temperatures and higher dewpoints are expected. Modified soundings at both KCHS and KNBC suggest a narrow corridor of MLCAPE >800 J/kg impacting mainly the lower South Carolina coast could materialize as temperatures rise into upper 70s to around 80. Confidence on this level of instability remains low as much will depend on the timing of the arrival of the main line of convection and if enough breaks in the extensive cloud canopy can occur. In terms of severe weather, the situation looks like a typical early spring high shear/low CAPE scenario with 0-6km bulk shear forecast to be >50 kt. As noted, the thermodynamic environment is less than ideal so an organized severe event looks unlikely, although one or two strong to severe tstms can not be completely ruled out given the shear in place. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain will steadily end Monday evening as a cold front gradually shifts offshore and Canadian high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. A dry, reinforcing cold front will drop south through the area Tuesday as the upper trough finally shifts offshore. Below normal temperatures will dominate for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 6Z TAFs: A weak pressure gradient may support a light south with across the terminals through daybreak Saturday. However, if the wind speeds dips below 3 kts then a period of ground fog is possible at each terminal around daybreak. A sea breeze is timed to push across the terminals during the mid-day. Following the sea breeze, south winds should strengthen to around 15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Gusty conditions should end around 23Z, with south winds around 10 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are expected on Sunday. Flight restrictions are likely Monday as showers with a few tstms impact the area ahead of a cold front. && .MARINE... This Afternoon and Tonight: Strong Atlantic high pressure will encompass the local waters, leading to southeast/south winds mainly around 10-15 kt or less. The exception will be in Charleston Harbor prior to sunset, where post sea breeze influences generate gusts around 20 kt for a few hours. Seas are a mixture of swells and wind driven waves through the night, equating to significant wave heights of 3-4 ft within 20 nm of the coast and 4-5 ft across the outer Georgia waters. Saturday through Wednesday: Winds will enhance once again along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor Saturday afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Gusts will reach as high as 20 kt, just sky of Small Craft Advisory criteria in the Charleston Harbor. Southerly winds will prevail across all waters through Monday morning as a cold front approaches. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and increasing low-level wind fields will support winds reaching 15-20 kt late Saturday night into the day Sunday. Gusts could get close to advisory criteria for all waters. Speeds will peak 20-25 kt Monday afternoon as the cold front gets closer to the waters and Small Craft Advisories will be needed. Seas will build to 4-6 ft over the Georgia offshore leg Saturday evening and peaking 5- 7 ft Sunday night into Monday so a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for those waters through late Monday evening. Seas will reach 4-6 ft over the remaining nearshore waters Sunday evening, peaking 4- 7 ft Monday morning. Winds and seas will diminish Monday night through Wednesday. Rip Currents: Lingering 3 ft swells every 8 to 10 seconds will support a Moderate Risk for rip currents for all beaches through this evening. Gusty south to southeast winds with the afternoon sea breeze and lingering 8 second east/southeast swell will support another moderate risk for rip currents at the beaches Saturday. The moderate risk will persist into Sunday as the synoptic flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. East/southeast swells are forecast to increase slightly with periods 8-9 seconds, which may put parts of the Georgia coast close to the high risk category, especially if seas builds a bit more or winds end up being slightly higher than expected. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ374. && $$ |
