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| #1239730 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Despite that, there are slight chances (less than 20 percent) of a shower or storm roughly east of I-45. - Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Next week, temperatures will begin to drift back upwards, with a return to more typical isolated to scattered afternoon storm coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 You know, if these past few weeks just haven`t been the summeriest stretch of Southeast Texas summer one could possibly get, I`m not sure how you could do it. The subtropical ridge is our main weather feature, with the nuances in its strength and position (and the passage of various upper troughs around the ridge`s fringe) dictating changes in the weather from day to day. For now, we remain in a stronger period for the ridge, and we`ve gotten some hot and even somewhat unseasonably dry days of late. But tomorrow, we`re going to *start* to see some transition. More significant moisture will attempt to bleed into area from the east, where it should be a little bit more humid while the west stays drier. Indeed, we may again see some isolated spots out in our northwest have their afternoon dewpoints mix to around 60 degrees. While not a huge change looks to make its way in, precipitable water looks to increase enough east of I-45 that we could see an isolated shower or storm pop up in the afternoon. Elsewhere, though, another day without rain is expected. By the late week and particularly the weekend, however, we`ll see sufficiently deep moisture and the arrival of enough modest troughing that we`ll see scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms each day. We`re not expecting any sort of widespread washouts, but as so often occurs around here - there`ll be enough moisture that the strongest storms of the day could produce localized flooding issues if they develop over a particularly vulnerable spot. On the plus side, increased clouds and rain chances will tamp down the temperatures a little bit, and the strong signal - especially near the coast - that we see in the Euro ensemble for above average to even near record heat will fade after Wednesday and likely be entirely gone by Friday. Not that it`s going to get cool at all...but it`ll at least fade into a more typical range of hot for the hottest time of the year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the day with FEW to SCT mid- level clouds. Light northwesterly winds are expected to persist through the late morning or early afternoon, then switching to southerly by the afternoon, then returning to light and variable tonight. Can`t out rule some patchy fog developing late tonight at SGR, LBX, or CXO. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast heading into the weekend. Locally higher winds and waves possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms later this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 101 76 100 77 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 99 80 97 80 / 10 10 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 95 83 93 83 / 20 10 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239701 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Despite that, there are slight chances (less than 20 percent) of a shower or storm roughly east of I-45. - Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Next week, temperatures will begin to drift back upwards, with a return to more typical isolated to scattered afternoon storm coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 You know, if these past few weeks just haven`t been the summeriest stretch of Southeast Texas summer one could possibly get, I`m not sure how you could do it. The subtropical ridge is our main weather feature, with the nuances in its strength and position (and the passage of various upper troughs around the ridge`s fringe) dictating changes in the weather from day to day. For now, we remain in a stronger period for the ridge, and we`ve gotten some hot and even somewhat unseasonably dry days of late. But tomorrow, we`re going to *start* to see some transition. More significant moisture will attempt to bleed into area from the east, where it should be a little bit more humid while the west stays drier. Indeed, we may again see some isolated spots out in our northwest have their afternoon dewpoints mix to around 60 degrees. While not a huge change looks to make its way in, precipitable water looks to increase enough east of I-45 that we could see an isolated shower or storm pop up in the afternoon. Elsewhere, though, another day without rain is expected. By the late week and particularly the weekend, however, we`ll see sufficiently deep moisture and the arrival of enough modest troughing that we`ll see scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms each day. We`re not expecting any sort of widespread washouts, but as so often occurs around here - there`ll be enough moisture that the strongest storms of the day could produce localized flooding issues if they develop over a particularly vulnerable spot. On the plus side, increased clouds and rain chances will tamp down the temperatures a little bit, and the strong signal - especially near the coast - that we see in the Euro ensemble for above average to even near record heat will fade after Wednesday and likely be entirely gone by Friday. Not that it`s going to get cool at all...but it`ll at least fade into a more typical range of hot for the hottest time of the year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail going into the evening hours. With similar conditions to Monday night/Tuesday morning expected, another round of patchy fog is likely especially at the usual spots (CXO/SGR/LBX). This could lead to intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions mainly between 10Z-14Z. Other terminals could see brief periods of reduced visibilities right around sunrise. Wednesday morning will start out light westerly to southwesterly winds and becoming southerly along the coast behind the seabreeze. There is slight potential for isolated convection east of I-45, but chances are too low to include that in any of the TAFs for now. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast heading into the weekend. Locally higher winds and waves possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms later this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 99 80 97 / 0 10 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 81 95 83 93 / 0 20 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
