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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1243137 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 556 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring drier and cooler than normal weather through Friday. Low pressure along a front to the south and east should bring slightly better rain chances this weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure moves offshore throughout the day today and light northerly winds will become a bit more easterly as a result. Onshore flow should create some afternoon cumulus, surface-based dew point depressions and low PW values should keep chances of rain at 0%. Moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere stretches from southwestern British Columbia, across the American Heartland, and into the southern Appalachians. This extended plume of moisture will filter into our region today creating periods of mostly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, low level moisture will push onshore as high pressure to our north and east drifts off of the Delmarva coast. The combination of low level cumulus along the coast and upper level cloud cover will have an impact on temperatures today. I have gone a degree or two below the NBM, lower 80s likely for most areas, mid 80s could creep into our inland counties with some afternoon sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances *Very low to no risk for severe storms/flash flooding, mainly Sat *Near to below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High through Fri night *Low to Moderate Sat/Sat night Details: High pressure should keep it generally rain-free through at least Fri night as moisture levels remain low despite a weak cold front approaching Fri night. However, more moisture and mid-level forcing Sat/Sat night will lead to at least a low risk for showers and possibly a few storms. Limited instability/shear should keep the severe storm risk very low at best. temps should stay near to below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances *No flash flood/severe storm risk *Below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate Details: Surface high pressure should build in early next week as a front and likely low pressure along it stay to our south and east. However, exact placement of these features, along with the strength/timing of mid-level shortwaves passing through the broad upper trough across the region, will greatly determine our rain chances. For now we generally have the highest chances closer to the coast. Northerly winds will keep temps below normal. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in VFR. Light winds shift to the east this afternoon as high pressure to our north moves offshore. Extended Outlook... Increasing rain chances could bring intermittent flight restrictions late Friday. Day to day showers and storms may be possible through the weekend and early next week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure to the north will shift offshore through the day today. Light northerly winds will become easterly this afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet. Shower and storm chances may gradually return to the outer waters late tonight. Friday through Monday...High pressure centered to the north will generally prevail through Sat night with no significant winds/seas expected. Starting Sunday, strengthening high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the south/southeast will lead to increasing winds/seas, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt and/or 6 ft). && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243124 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 28.Aug.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 154 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring drier and cooler than normal weather through Friday. Low pressure along a front to the south and east should bring slightly better rain chances this weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure moves offshore throughout the day today and light northerly winds will become a bit more easterly as a result. Onshore flow should create some afternoon cumulus, surface-based dew point depressions and low PW values should keep chances of rain at 0%. Moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere stretches from southwestern British Columbia, across the American Heartland, and into the southern Appalachians. This extended plume of moisture will filter into our region today creating periods of mostly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, low level moisture will push onshore as high pressure to our north and east drifts off of the Delmarva coast. The combination of low level cumulus along the coast and upper level cloud cover will have an impact on temperatures today. I have gone a degree or two below the NBM, lower 80s likely for most areas, mid 80s could creep into our inland counties with some afternoon sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances *Very low to no risk for severe storms/flash flooding, mainly Sat *Near to below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High through Fri night *Low to Moderate Sat/Sat night Details: High pressure should keep it generally rain-free through at least Fri night as moisture levels remain low despite a weak cold front approaching Fri night. However, more moisture and mid-level forcing Sat/Sat night will lead to at least a low risk for showers and possibly a few storms. Limited instability/shear should keep the severe storm risk very low at best. temps should stay near to below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to below normal rain chances *No flash flood/severe storm risk *Below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate Details: Surface high pressure should build in early next week as a front and likely low pressure along it stay to our south and east. However, exact placement of these features, along with the strength/timing of mid-level shortwaves passing through the broad upper trough across the region, will greatly determine our rain chances. For now we generally have the highest chances closer to the coast. Northerly winds will keep temps below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in VFR. Light winds shift to the east this afternoon as high pressure to our north moves offshore. Extended Outlook... Increasing rain chances could bring intermittent flight restrictions late Friday. Day to day showers and storms may be possible through the weekend and early next week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure to the north will shift offshore through the day today. Light northerly winds will become easterly this afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet. Shower and storm chances may gradually return to the outer waters late tonight. Friday through Monday...High pressure centered to the north will generally prevail through Sat night with no significant winds/seas expected. Starting Sunday, strengthening high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the south/southeast will lead to increasing winds/seas, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt and/or 6 ft). && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
