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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1261015 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 27.Feb.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1234 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain continues into this evening before gradual clearing occurs on Saturday. 2) Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through late Tuesday for local coastal waters. 3) Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, next Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues into this evening before gradual clearing occurs on Saturday. Showers continue to develop along a slow-moving frontal boundary today. Heavier showers will come to an end over the next few hours with more scattered coverage of light showers expected into the evening period. The front will finally push south of the area tonight. Weak low pressure riding the boundary will sink far enough south to bring an end to rain chances by early Saturday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through late Tuesday for local coastal waters. Wedge of high pressure inland will lead to increased northeast winds over the local waters late Sunday night through Monday night. In turn, seas build to 5-7 feet for Monday through Tuesday associated with the ENE swell. 6 foot seas may linger for the southeast NC coastal waters into Tuesday night. KEY MESSAGE 3...Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, next Thursday and Friday. Decent warm air advection around offshore ridge will lead to well above normal temperatures, around 15-20 degrees above climo, for the end of next week, along with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year. This could aid in some surface based instability developing, particularly inland, which may produce widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Mid-level offshore ridge edging westward could lead to subsidence for our area, which would limit shower/thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A nearly stationary cold front near the Carolina coast will slowly drop southward tonight. Some VFR has attempted to hang around, but is being overpowered as cold air behind the front brings CIGs to near minimums. The variable cloud bases between 200 feet and 8,000 ft AGL may continue for the Grand Strand terminals for the next couple of hours. Showers will come to an end this evening, but low clouds are likely to continue through the end of the period. Fog is also possible overnight. Extended Forecast...Restrictions are likely to continue on Saturday morning with improvement to VFR expected by Saturday afternoon. Brief flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. VFR returns Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Northeast flow will increase behind a cold front through Saturday. Low pressure developing offshore will keep the pressure gradient compressed and seas around 2-3 feet. Seas increase to around 3 feet tonight and into early Saturday morning as the low rushes off to the north and east. Winds weaken during the latter half of the day on Saturday as high pressure settles overhead. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Benign marine conditions Saturday night and Sunday with winds less than 10 kts and seas around 2 ft, combination of SE swell and NE swell. Hazardous marine conditions develop late Sunday night and continue through Tuesday as wedge of high pressure builds inland and northeasterly winds and seas increase. NE winds peak during the day Monday, sustained around 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts, with seas 5-7 ft Monday through early Tuesday. Winds turn onshore late Tuesday. 6 foot seas may linger for southeast NC waters late Tuesday, before seas lower to 3-4 ft for all local waters for Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261006 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 701 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional rainfall today through early Saturday to only make a slight dent into the ongoing D1 Moderate to D2 Severe drought across SE NC and NE SC. 2) Unsettled marine conditions expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Additional rainfall today through early Saturday to only make a slight dent into the ongoing D1 Moderate to D2 Severe drought across SE NC and NE SC. A nearly stationary cold front draped ENE-WSW across the ILM CWA early this morning, will slowly make some progress to the SE-SSE today, pushing off the mainland by midday and temporary stalling just offshore and parallel to the coasts this evening. Forcing in the vicinity of the front and weak impulses aloft to keep the threat of pcpn ongoing up until the CFP. This will be our best bet for accumulating rainfall with showery pcpn activity. Later this aftn thru tonight, pcpn becomes more stratiform and light in nature, with mainly patchy light rain or drizzle possible, with best chances closer to the coast. Decent 5H s/w trof to push across the Carolinas tonight resulting in low pressure developing along the stalled front just offshore that may throw back some pcpn along the coast as the low intensifies as it books off to the NE, away from the U.S. mainland. Rainfall amounts from the overnight thru Sat morning will range from 0.25 to 0.50 with isolated hier amounts to 0.75 inches across southernmost portions of the CWA. This will only make a very slight dent within the ongoing D1 and D2 drought across the FA as the 2026 growing season approaches. Bare in mind, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day pcpn outlooks only exhibit below to near normal rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled marine conditions expected early next week. See Marine discussion below. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A nearly stationary cold front near the Carolina coast will slowly drop southward tonight. Warm advective flow has maintained VFR overnight, but as winds turn northeasterly this morning, IFR/LIFR should become dominant. Overrunning showers will solidify restrictions through this evening. Showers will come to an end this evening, but low clouds are likely to continue through the end of the period. Extended Forecast... Restrictions are likely to continue on Saturday morning. VFR conditions should return by Saturday afternoon. Brief flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. VFR returns Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Friday Night...The sfc pg continues to relax as the overnight progresses, resulting in SW winds diminishing to 10 kt or less. This relaxed gradient will persist thru the remainder of the fcst period. The CFP will occur during daylight Fri, with SW winds 10 kt or less becoming N-NE around 10 kt. Sfc low pressure to develop along the cold front off the Carolina Coasts this evening and race northeast away from the mainland by sunrise Sat. This may result in NE winds increasing slightly to around 15 kt tonight. Seas have already responded by subsiding below SCA thresholds once those SW winds began diminishing. This trend will continue thru this evening, dropping to 2 to 3 ft, but may increase to 2 to 4 ft for the NC waters due to the deepening but departing low pressure by Sat. Wind driven waves to dominate with a fresh or pseudo SE-S swell at 6 to 7 second periods dominating. Saturday through Tuesday... Winds grow light on Saturday as much of the Southeast is between high pressure in the west- central Atlantic and a stronger high diving into the Great Lakes. The latter leads to backdoor cold frontal passage Sunday night. This sets up a wedge setting up over land while a coastal trough develops on the eastern periphery of the wedge. This will set up a fairly localized but strong pressure gradient between the two. Sunday night into Monday will present some very unsettled conditions. Winds ramp up to Advisory levels first with seas following suit. The agitated wind waves will not be alone as the strong high passing by well to our north (crossing New England States) establishes a long easterly fetch into the Carolinas that will bring increasing swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1260984 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 208 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Tweaked the latest rainfall totals lower from overnight through Saturday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional rainfall today through early Saturday to only make a slight dent into the ongoing D1 Moderate to D2 Severe drought across SE NC and NE SC. 2) Unsettled marine conditions expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Additional rainfall today through early Saturday to only make a slight dent into the ongoing D1 Moderate to D2 Severe drought across SE NC and NE SC. A nearly stationary cold front draped ENE-WSW across the ILM CWA early this morning, will slowly make some progress to the SE-SSE today, pushing off the mainland by midday and temporary stalling just offshore and parallel to the coasts this evening. Forcing in the vicinity of the front and weak impulses aloft to keep the threat of pcpn ongoing up until the CFP. This will be our best bet for accumulating rainfall with showery pcpn activity. Later this aftn thru tonight, pcpn becomes more stratiform and light in nature, with mainly patchy light rain or drizzle possible, with best chances closer to the coast. Decent 5H s/w trof to push across the Carolinas tonight resulting in low pressure developing along the stalled front just offshore that may throw back some pcpn along the coast as the low intensifies as it books off to the NE, away from the U.S. mainland. Rainfall amounts from the overnight thru Sat morning will range from 0.25 to 0.50 with isolated hier amounts to 0.75 inches across southernmost portions of the CWA. This will only make a very slight dent within the ongoing D1 and D2 drought across the FA as the 2026 growing season approaches. Bare in mind, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day pcpn outlooks only exhibit below to near normal rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled marine conditions expected early next week. See Marine discussion below. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold front to slowly drop southward overnight into Fri, crossing LBT 1st followed by ILM and FLO and finally pushing thru CRE and MYR. Ahead of the cold front expect VFR, except periodic MVFR scattered showers mainly from reduced vsby from the pcpn and fog activity. After the CFP, look for overrunning low clouds dropping thru MVFR to IFR categories, daytime morning for the inland terminals and midday for the coastal terminals. In addition, reduced vsby from fog and/or intermittent light rain or drizzle will further aid IFR conditions. Both low clouds and stratiform pcpn will continue thru 06Z 2/28 with the pcpn ending inland terminals but persisting at the coast. The sfc pg has relaxed to the point where SW winds have diminished to around 5 kt. Winds will become NNE-ENE 5 to 7 kt after the CFP and persist thru the end of the period. Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions are to continue Fri night into Saturday morning as an area of low pressure develops along the front off the Carolina Coasts and finally lifts NE- ward out to sea Sat. Look for VFR conditions by Sat afternoon and continuing thru Sun. Brief flight restrictions possible Sun night into Mon as a CFP occurs, followed by VFR as strong high pressure ridges in from the NE Mon thru Tue. && .MARINE... Through Friday Night...The sfc pg continues to relax as the overnight progresses, resulting in SW winds diminishing to 10 kt or less. This relaxed gradient will persist thru the remainder of the fcst period. The CFP will occur during daylight Fri, with SW winds 10 kt or less becoming N-NE around 10 kt. Sfc low pressure to develop along the cold front off the Carolina Coasts this evening and race northeast away from the mainland by sunrise Sat. This may result in NE winds increasing slightly to around 15 kt tonight. Seas have already responded by subsiding below SCA thresholds once those SW winds began diminishing. This trend will continue thru this evening, dropping to 2 to 3 ft, but may increase to 2 to 4 ft for the NC waters due to the deepening but departing low pressure by Sat. Wind driven waves to dominate with a fresh or pseudo SE-S swell at 6 to 7 second periods dominating. Saturday through Tuesday... Winds grow light on Saturday as much of the Southeast is between high pressure in the west- central Atlantic and a stronger high diving into the Great Lakes. The latter leads to backdoor cold frontal passage Sunday night. This sets up a wedge setting up over land while a coastal trough develops on the eastern periphery of the wedge. This will set up a fairly localized but strong pressure gradient between the two. Sunday night into Monday will present some very unsettled conditions. Winds ramp up to Advisory levels first with seas following suit. The agitated wind waves will not be alone as the strong high passing by well to our north (crossing New England States) establishes a long easterly fetch into the Carolinas that will bring increasing swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
