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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1248205 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 753 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue into tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move north Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .UPDATE... Coastal low continues drifting north this evening. Forecast has been updated to account for latest radar trends and to incorporate high resolution guidance. Overall thinking has not changed, conditions will gradually improve as the low moves off to the north. The band of heavy rain that set up along the convergence line has weakened, suggesting the flooding threat is starting to decrease (however a flash flood warning remains in effect for part of the area). There does appear to be 2 areas where low level convergence is enhancing rainfall, across northern Horry and western Florence counties. The good news is in these areas the banding is moving more and is weaker, owing to the decrease in surface based instability. So while there is potential for brief heavier rain, at this time it does not appear there is a significant flood threat. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 993mb coastal low is currently just east of New Hanover/Pender counties as seen on visible satellite. Light rain, with pockets or moderate rain and a few lightning strikes due to elevated instability, will continue on the west side of this low through this evening as the low very slowly moves northward. Following flash flooding across coastal NE SC this morning and midday, isolated flooding will remain possible, particularly in low-lying areas or where heavy rain has recently fallen. Tonight, the low is expected to move north across the Outer Banks while weakening, bringing rain chances to an end across our area by Monday morning as dry air moves in from the north around the low. Low temps tonight around 60F with lingering breezy NNW winds. While dry air moves into the area aloft, low level moisture will hang around a bit on Monday, keeping the area cloudy to start the day. Low stratus will clear west to east midday, which will lead to a gradient in high temps with ~75F forecasted around I-95 corridor and ~70F forecasted for Pender and New Hanover, with potential for cooler high temps if stratus lingers into the afternoon. Northwest winds remain a little breezy Monday due to lingering tightened pressure gradient around the low, off the Mid Atlantic coast by then, but certainly weaker winds compared to today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weather will transition into a quiet midweek period as coastal low moves farther off to the north with diminishing winds and chc of pcp. The latest models do show upper low dropping south from Great Lakes into the main trough/low moving up the east coast. This shortwave digs down and rotates around into NC early Tues driving sfc low back south, and should see low level moisture and some clouds and possibly a passing shower or two. Model soundings show fairly deep low level moisture across mainly NC or ILM sounding. Should not be enough to produce measurable pcp and therefore did not include any pops into early Tues. Pcp water drops to less than an inch Mon evening with a rise up to 1.3 inches Tues morning with drying again late Tues into Wed. Overall, expect diminishing northerly winds as high pressure builds down from the north. Overnight lows will basically be in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s, but could see some temps pushing 80 across portions of the Pee Dee. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The deep low will finally move farther away dragging backdoor cold front down Wed night with high pressure building down behind it. A surge of much drier air reaches down into the Carolinas on Thurs. Pcp water values drop down from nearly an inch Wed eve to around .35 inches by Thurs aftn as dry and cooler high pressure builds south. Should see plenty of sunshine Thurs through Sat with much greater diurnal swings. The winds should lighten enough to aid in some radiational cooling thurs night and Fri night. Dewpoint temps could drop into the 30s Thurs into Fri and expect overnight lows down into the 40s Thurs night and Fri night most places. Afternoon highs may struggle to reach into the 70s with plenty of October sunshine. The center of the high will shift south reaching The Carolina coast by Sat before shifting offshore with a southerly return flow for the first time in a while bringing warming into the weekend with a slow increase of moisture. By Sunday, moisture will rise further ahead of a cold front that should increase the chc of pcp into early next week. Otherwise, not expecting any pcp from Thurs through early Sun. Temps will increase back into the mid 70s on Sat and possibly closer to 80 on Sun. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure continues strengthening off the coast as it slowly moves north. Low level moisture wrapping around the low and loss of heating/mixing has allowed ceiling that were marginally into the MVFR category to drop into the IFR category for most terminals. Anticipate long duration of IFR ceilings with occasional drops in visibility as patches of rain/mist affect the terminals. Winds will remain gusty overnight with winds becoming more northwest if they haven`t already done so. Clouds and IFR ceilings will hang around Mon, with the first breaks appearing across inland SC then gradually spreading north and east during the day. Extended Outlook...MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings develop Monday night. VFR returns Tuesday through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Coastal low is currently just east of SE NC over the local coastal waters. Winds have weakened across NE SC waters with occasional gusts around 30 kts, while gale-force gusts will continue off SE NC coast for a few more hours due to a corridor of enhanced winds on the west side of the low. Northwest winds around 20-25 kts forecasted for all local coastal waters this evening into Monday morning as the low pressure moves north across the Outer Banks, weakening further to 15-20 kts during the day Monday. Seas 5- 9 ft currently will also slowly improve as the low exits the area tonight, with 4-7 ft expected tonight and 4-5 ft forecasted by late Monday afternoon. On and off rain through tonight will lead to variable visibilities over the waters, with only an isolated thunder threat. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to be in place for all local coastal waters by Monday evening. Monday night through Thursday... Low pressure off the Delmarva coast Mon night should shift a bit south again into midweek before moving east into the Atlantic. A northerly flow will persist between this low and high pressure building down behind it. Northerly winds 15 to 20 kts will continue diminishing slowly through midweek but will increase behind cold front on Thurs. Seas will subside from 3 to 5 ft down to 2 to 4 ft by Wed, but will increase again back to 3 to 5 ft on Thurs, but should remain below SCA thresholds through the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk of rip currents at beaches north of Cape Fear, with only a low to moderate risk south of there. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
| #1248199 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 740 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue into tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move north Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .UPDATE... Coastal low continues drifting north this evening. Forecast has been updated to account for latest radar trends and to incorporate high resolution guidance. Overall thinking has not changed, conditions will gradually improve as the low moves off to the north. The band of heavy rain that set up along the convergence line has weakened, suggesting the flooding threat is starting to decrease (however a flash flood warning remains in effect for part of the area). There does appear to be 2 areas where low level convergence is enhancing rainfall, across northern Horry and western Florence counties. The good news is in these areas the banding is moving more and is weaker, owing to the decrease in surface based instability. So while there is potential for brief heavier rain, at this time it does not appear there is a significant flood threat. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 993mb coastal low is currently just east of New Hanover/Pender counties as seen on visible satellite. Light rain, with pockets or moderate rain and a few lightning strikes due to elevated instability, will continue on the west side of this low through this evening as the low very slowly moves northward. Following flash flooding across coastal NE SC this morning and midday, isolated flooding will remain possible, particularly in low-lying areas or where heavy rain has recently fallen. Tonight, the low is expected to move north across the Outer Banks while weakening, bringing rain chances to an end across our area by Monday morning as dry air moves in from the north around the low. Low temps tonight around 60F with lingering breezy NNW winds. While dry air moves into the area aloft, low level moisture will hang around a bit on Monday, keeping the area cloudy to start the day. Low stratus will clear west to east midday, which will lead to a gradient in high temps with ~75F forecasted around I-95 corridor and ~70F forecasted for Pender and New Hanover, with potential for cooler high temps if stratus lingers into the afternoon. Northwest winds remain a little breezy Monday due to lingering tightened pressure gradient around the low, off the Mid Atlantic coast by then, but certainly weaker winds compared to today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weather will transition into a quiet midweek period as coastal low moves farther off to the north with diminishing winds and chc of pcp. The latest models do show upper low dropping south from Great Lakes into the main trough/low moving up the east coast. This shortwave digs down and rotates around into NC early Tues driving sfc low back south, and should see low level moisture and some clouds and possibly a passing shower or two. Model soundings show fairly deep low level moisture across mainly NC or ILM sounding. Should not be enough to produce measurable pcp and therefore did not include any pops into early Tues. Pcp water drops to less than an inch Mon evening with a rise up to 1.3 inches Tues morning with drying again late Tues into Wed. Overall, expect diminishing northerly winds as high pressure builds down from the north. Overnight lows will basically be in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s, but could see some temps pushing 80 across portions of the Pee Dee. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The deep low will finally move farther away dragging backdoor cold front down Wed night with high pressure building down behind it. A surge of much drier air reaches down into the Carolinas on Thurs. Pcp water values drop down from nearly an inch Wed eve to around .35 inches by Thurs aftn as dry and cooler high pressure builds south. Should see plenty of sunshine Thurs through Sat with much greater diurnal swings. The winds should lighten enough to aid in some radiational cooling thurs night and Fri night. Dewpoint temps could drop into the 30s Thurs into Fri and expect overnight lows down into the 40s Thurs night and Fri night most places. Afternoon highs may struggle to reach into the 70s with plenty of October sunshine. The center of the high will shift south reaching The Carolina coast by Sat before shifting offshore with a southerly return flow for the first time in a while bringing warming into the weekend with a slow increase of moisture. By Sunday, moisture will rise further ahead of a cold front that should increase the chc of pcp into early next week. Otherwise, not expecting any pcp from Thurs through early Sun. Temps will increase back into the mid 70s on Sat and possibly closer to 80 on Sun. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure continues strengthening off the coast as it slowly moves north. Low level moisture wrapping around the low and loss of heating/mixing has allowed ceiling that were marginally into the MVFR category to drop into the IFR category for most terminals. Anticipate long duration of IFR ceilings with occasional drops in visibility as patches of rain/mist affect the terminals. Winds will remain gusty overnight with winds becoming more northwest if they haven`t already done so. Clouds and IFR ceilings will hang around Mon, with the first breaks appearing across inland SC then gradually spreading north and east during the day. Extended Outlook...MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings develop Monday night. VFR returns Tuesday through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Coastal low is currently just east of SE NC over the local coastal waters. Winds have weakened across NE SC waters with occasional gusts around 30 kts, while gale-force gusts will continue off SE NC coast for a few more hours due to a corridor of enhanced winds on the west side of the low. Northwest winds around 20-25 kts forecasted for all local coastal waters this evening into Monday morning as the low pressure moves north across the Outer Banks, weakening further to 15-20 kts during the day Monday. Seas 5- 9 ft currently will also slowly improve as the low exits the area tonight, with 4-7 ft expected tonight and 4-5 ft forecasted by late Monday afternoon. On and off rain through tonight will lead to variable visibilities over the waters, with only an isolated thunder threat. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to be in place for all local coastal waters by Monday evening. Monday night through Thursday... Low pressure off the Delmarva coast Mon night should shift a bit south again into midweek before moving east into the Atlantic. A northerly flow will persist between this low and high pressure building down behind it. Northerly winds 15 to 20 kts will continue diminishing slowly through midweek but will increase behind cold front on Thurs. Seas will subside from 3 to 5 ft down to 2 to 4 ft by Wed, but will increase again back to 3 to 5 ft on Thurs, but should remain below SCA thresholds through the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but will shift to become more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, will continue through early this evening. Minor coastal flooding is possible through Monday`s high tide for the beaches, mainly north of Cape Fear. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
| #1248182 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 508 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue into tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move north Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .UPDATE... Update to remove coastal flood advisory for Inland New Hanover from WWA section. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 993mb coastal low is currently just east of New Hanover/Pender counties as seen on visible satellite. Light rain, with pockets or moderate rain and a few lightning strikes due to elevated instability, will continue on the west side of this low through this evening as the low very slowly moves northward. Following flash flooding across coastal NE SC this morning and midday, isolated flooding will remain possible, particularly in low-lying areas or where heavy rain has recently fallen. Tonight, the low is expected to move north across the Outer Banks while weakening, bringing rain chances to an end across our area by Monday morning as dry air moves in from the north around the low. Low temps tonight around 60F with lingering breezy NNW winds. While dry air moves into the area aloft, low level moisture will hang around a bit on Monday, keeping the area cloudy to start the day. Low stratus will clear west to east midday, which will lead to a gradient in high temps with ~75F forecasted around I-95 corridor and ~70F forecasted for Pender and New Hanover, with potential for cooler high temps if stratus lingers into the afternoon. Northwest winds remain a little breezy Monday due to lingering tightened pressure gradient around the low, off the Mid Atlantic coast by then, but certainly weaker winds compared to today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weather will transition into a quiet midweek period as coastal low moves farther off to the north with diminishing winds and chc of pcp. The latest models do show upper low dropping south from Great Lakes into the main trough/low moving up the east coast. This shortwave digs down and rotates around into NC early Tues driving sfc low back south, and should see low level moisture and some clouds and possibly a passing shower or two. Model soundings show fairly deep low level moisture across mainly NC or ILM sounding. Should not be enough to produce measurable pcp and therefore did not include any pops into early Tues. Pcp water drops to less than an inch Mon evening with a rise up to 1.3 inches Tues morning with drying again late Tues into Wed. Overall, expect diminishing northerly winds as high pressure builds down from the north. Overnight lows will basically be in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s, but could see some temps pushing 80 across portions of the Pee Dee. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The deep low will finally move farther away dragging backdoor cold front down Wed night with high pressure building down behind it. A surge of much drier air reaches down into the Carolinas on Thurs. Pcp water values drop down from nearly an inch Wed eve to around .35 inches by Thurs aftn as dry and cooler high pressure builds south. Should see plenty of sunshine Thurs through Sat with much greater diurnal swings. The winds should lighten enough to aid in some radiational cooling thurs night and Fri night. Dewpoint temps could drop into the 30s Thurs into Fri and expect overnight lows down into the 40s Thurs night and Fri night most places. Afternoon highs may struggle to reach into the 70s with plenty of October sunshine. The center of the high will shift south reaching The Carolina coast by Sat before shifting offshore with a southerly return flow for the first time in a while bringing warming into the weekend with a slow increase of moisture. By Sunday, moisture will rise further ahead of a cold front that should increase the chc of pcp into early next week. Otherwise, not expecting any pcp from Thurs through early Sun. Temps will increase back into the mid 70s on Sat and possibly closer to 80 on Sun. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread low cloud deck around 1000 ft remains in place across southeast NC and northeast SC with coastal low just off of our coast. Mostly IFR conditions at local terminals, with pockets of MVFR, along with variable visibilities as light to moderate rain continues to fall. Rain will come to an end overnight tonight into Monday morning. However, low ceilings will be slow to improve. IFR ceilings are expected to prevail at coastal terminals until late Monday morning before improving to MVFR, while inland terminals will be borderline IFR/MVFR overnight, improving to VFR by end of TAF period. Gusty north winds will continue through early tonight, before weakening by tomorrow as coastal low exits to the north. Extended Outlook...Conditions improve during the day Monday, albeit a little breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Coastal low is currently just east of SE NC over the local coastal waters. Winds have weakened across NE SC waters with occasional gusts around 30 kts, while gale-force gusts will continue off SE NC coast for a few more hours due to a corridor of enhanced winds on the west side of the low. Northwest winds around 20-25 kts forecasted for all local coastal waters this evening into Monday morning as the low pressure moves north across the Outer Banks, weakening further to 15-20 kts during the day Monday. Seas 5- 9 ft currently will also slowly improve as the low exits the area tonight, with 4-7 ft expected tonight and 4-5 ft forecasted by late Monday afternoon. On and off rain through tonight will lead to variable visibilities over the waters, with only an isolated thunder threat. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to be in place for all local coastal waters by Monday evening. Monday night through Thursday... Low pressure off the Delmarva coast Mon night should shift a bit south again into midweek before moving east into the Atlantic. A northerly flow will persist between this low and high pressure building down behind it. Northerly winds 15 to 20 kts will continue diminishing slowly through midweek but will increase behind cold front on Thurs. Seas will subside from 3 to 5 ft down to 2 to 4 ft by Wed, but will increase again back to 3 to 5 ft on Thurs, but should remain below SCA thresholds through the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but will shift to become more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, will continue through early this evening. Minor coastal flooding is possible through Monday`s high tide for the beaches, mainly north of Cape Fear. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
| #1248178 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue into tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move north Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 993mb coastal low is currently just east of New Hanover/Pender counties as seen on visible satellite. Light rain, with pockets or moderate rain and a few lightning strikes due to elevated instability, will continue on the west side of this low through this evening as the low very slowly moves northward. Following flash flooding across coastal NE SC this morning and midday, isolated flooding will remain possible, particularly in low-lying areas or where heavy rain has recently fallen. Tonight, the low is expected to move north across the Outer Banks while weakening, bringing rain chances to an end across our area by Monday morning as dry air moves in from the north around the low. Low temps tonight around 60F with lingering breezy NNW winds. While dry air moves into the area aloft, low level moisture will hang around a bit on Monday, keeping the area cloudy to start the day. Low stratus will clear west to east midday, which will lead to a gradient in high temps with ~75F forecasted around I-95 corridor and ~70F forecasted for Pender and New Hanover, with potential for cooler high temps if stratus lingers into the afternoon. Northwest winds remain a little breezy Monday due to lingering tightened pressure gradient around the low, off the Mid Atlantic coast by then, but certainly weaker winds compared to today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weather will transition into a quiet midweek period as coastal low moves farther off to the north with diminishing winds and chc of pcp. The latest models do show upper low dropping south from Great Lakes into the main trough/low moving up the east coast. This shortwave digs down and rotates around into NC early Tues driving sfc low back south, and should see low level moisture and some clouds and possibly a passing shower or two. Model soundings show fairly deep low level moisture across mainly NC or ILM sounding. Should not be enough to produce measurable pcp and therefore did not include any pops into early Tues. Pcp water drops to less than an inch Mon evening with a rise up to 1.3 inches Tues morning with drying again late Tues into Wed. Overall, expect diminishing northerly winds as high pressure builds down from the north. Overnight lows will basically be in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s, but could see some temps pushing 80 across portions of the Pee Dee. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The deep low will finally move farther away dragging backdoor cold front down Wed night with high pressure building down behind it. A surge of much drier air reaches down into the Carolinas on Thurs. Pcp water values drop down from nearly an inch Wed eve to around .35 inches by Thurs aftn as dry and cooler high pressure builds south. Should see plenty of sunshine Thurs through Sat with much greater diurnal swings. The winds should lighten enough to aid in some radiational cooling thurs night and Fri night. Dewpoint temps could drop into the 30s Thurs into Fri and expect overnight lows down into the 40s Thurs night and Fri night most places. Afternoon highs may struggle to reach into the 70s with plenty of October sunshine. The center of the high will shift south reaching The Carolina coast by Sat before shifting offshore with a southerly return flow for the first time in a while bringing warming into the weekend with a slow increase of moisture. By Sunday, moisture will rise further ahead of a cold front that should increase the chc of pcp into early next week. Otherwise, not expecting any pcp from Thurs through early Sun. Temps will increase back into the mid 70s on Sat and possibly closer to 80 on Sun. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread low cloud deck around 1000 ft remains in place across southeast NC and northeast SC with coastal low just off of our coast. Mostly IFR conditions at local terminals, with pockets of MVFR, along with variable visibilities as light to moderate rain continues to fall. Rain will come to an end overnight tonight into Monday morning. However, low ceilings will be slow to improve. IFR ceilings are expected to prevail at coastal terminals until late Monday morning before improving to MVFR, while inland terminals will be borderline IFR/MVFR overnight, improving to VFR by end of TAF period. Gusty north winds will continue through early tonight, before weakening by tomorrow as coastal low exits to the north. Extended Outlook...Conditions improve during the day Monday, albeit a little breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Coastal low is currently just east of SE NC over the local coastal waters. Winds have weakened across NE SC waters with occasional gusts around 30 kts, while gale-force gusts will continue off SE NC coast for a few more hours due to a corridor of enhanced winds on the west side of the low. Northwest winds around 20-25 kts forecasted for all local coastal waters this evening into Monday morning as the low pressure moves north across the Outer Banks, weakening further to 15-20 kts during the day Monday. Seas 5- 9 ft currently will also slowly improve as the low exits the area tonight, with 4-7 ft expected tonight and 4-5 ft forecasted by late Monday afternoon. On and off rain through tonight will lead to variable visibilities over the waters, with only an isolated thunder threat. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to be in place for all local coastal waters by Monday evening. Monday night through Thursday... Low pressure off the Delmarva coast Mon night should shift a bit south again into midweek before moving east into the Atlantic. A northerly flow will persist between this low and high pressure building down behind it. Northerly winds 15 to 20 kts will continue diminishing slowly through midweek but will increase behind cold front on Thurs. Seas will subside from 3 to 5 ft down to 2 to 4 ft by Wed, but will increase again back to 3 to 5 ft on Thurs, but should remain below SCA thresholds through the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but will shift to become more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, will continue through early this evening. Minor coastal flooding is possible through Monday`s high tide for the beaches, mainly north of Cape Fear. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256. && $$ |
| #1248168 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 221 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue into tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move north Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 993mb coastal low is currently just east of New Hanover/Pender counties as seen on visible satellite. Light rain, with pockets or moderate rain and a few lightning strikes due to elevated instability, will continue on the west side of this low through this evening as the low very slowly moves northward. Following flash flooding across coastal NE SC this morning and midday, isolated flooding will remain possible, particularly in low-lying areas or where heavy rain has recently fallen. Tonight, the low is expected to move north across the Outer Banks while weakening, bringing rain chances to an end across our area by Monday morning as dry air moves in from the north around the low. Low temps tonight around 60F with lingering breezy NNW winds. While dry air moves into the area aloft, low level moisture will hang around a bit on Monday, keeping the area cloudy to start the day. Low stratus will clear west to east midday, which will lead to a gradient in high temps with ~75F forecasted around I-95 corridor and ~70F forecasted for Pender and New Hanover, with potential for cooler high temps if stratus lingers into the afternoon. Northwest winds remain a little breezy Monday due to lingering tightened pressure gradient around the low, off the Mid Atlantic coast by then, but certainly weaker winds compared to today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weather will transition into a quiet midweek period as coastal low moves farther off to the north with diminishing winds and chc of pcp. The latest models do show upper low dropping south from Great Lakes into the main trough/low moving up the east coast. This shortwave digs down and rotates around into NC early Tues driving sfc low back south, and should see low level moisture and some clouds and possibly a passing shower or two. Model soundings show fairly deep low level moisture across mainly NC or ILM sounding. Should not be enough to produce measurable pcp and therefore did not include any pops into early Tues. Pcp water drops to less than an inch Mon evening with a rise up to 1.3 inches Tues morning with drying again late Tues into Wed. Overall, expect diminishing northerly winds as high pressure builds down from the north. Overnight lows will basically be in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s, but could see some temps pushing 80 across portions of the Pee Dee. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The deep low will finally move farther away dragging backdoor cold front down Wed night with high pressure building down behind it. A surge of much drier air reaches down into the Carolinas on Thurs. Pcp water values drop down from nearly an inch Wed eve to around .35 inches by Thurs aftn as dry and cooler high pressure builds south. Should see plenty of sunshine Thurs through Sat with much greater diurnal swings. The winds should lighten enough to aid in some radiational cooling thurs night and Fri night. Dewpoint temps could drop into the 30s Thurs into Fri and expect overnight lows down into the 40s Thurs night and Fri night most places. Afternoon highs may struggle to reach into the 70s with plenty of October sunshine. The center of the high will shift south reaching The Carolina coast by Sat before shifting offshore with a southerly return flow for the first time in a while bringing warming into the weekend with a slow increase of moisture. By Sunday, moisture will rise further ahead of a cold front that should increase the chc of pcp into early next week. Otherwise, not expecting any pcp from Thurs through early Sun. Temps will increase back into the mid 70s on Sat and possibly closer to 80 on Sun. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread low cloud deck around 1000 ft remains in place across southeast NC and northeast SC with coastal low just off of our coast. Mostly IFR conditions at local terminals, with pockets of MVFR, along with variable visibilities as light to moderate rain continues to fall. Rain will come to an end overnight tonight into Monday morning. However, low ceilings will be slow to improve. IFR ceilings are expected to prevail at coastal terminals until late Monday morning before improving to MVFR, while inland terminals will be borderline IFR/MVFR overnight, improving to VFR by end of TAF period. Gusty north winds will continue through early tonight, before weakening by tomorrow as coastal low exits to the north. Extended Outlook...Conditions improve during the day Monday, albeit a little breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Coastal low is currently just east of SE NC over the local coastal waters. Winds have weakened across NE SC waters with occasional gusts around 30 kts, while gale-force gusts will continue off SE NC coast for a few more hours due to a corridor of enhanced winds on the west side of the low. Northwest winds around 20-25 kts forecasted for all local coastal waters this evening into Monday morning as the low pressure moves north across the Outer Banks, weakening further to 15-20 kts during the day Monday. Seas 5- 9 ft currently will also slowly improve as the low exits the area tonight, with 4-7 ft expected tonight and 4-5 ft forecasted by late Monday afternoon. On and off rain through tonight will lead to variable visibilities over the waters, with only an isolated thunder threat. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to be in place for all local coastal waters by Monday evening. Monday night through Thursday... Low pressure off the Delmarva coast Mon night should shift a bit south again into midweek before moving east into the Atlantic. A northerly flow will persist between this low and high pressure building down behind it. Northerly winds 15 to 20 kts will continue diminishing slowly through midweek but will increase behind cold front on Thurs. Seas will subside from 3 to 5 ft down to 2 to 4 ft by Wed, but will increase again back to 3 to 5 ft on Thurs, but should remain below SCA thresholds through the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but will shift to become more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, will continue through early this evening. Minor coastal flooding is possible through Monday`s high tide for the beaches, mainly north of Cape Fear. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256. && $$ |
| #1248143 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue today and tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move offshore Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .UPDATE... While conditions have improved across southeastern Georgetown county, current flooded areas will be slow to recede due to upcoming high tide and therefore the Flash Flood Warning has been extended through 2pm. Moderate rain continues to fall across Horry county, and localized flooding is possible. The Gale Warning for NE SC coastal waters has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory through tomorrow, while the Gale Warning for SE NC waters has been extended through this afternoon with the low pressure currently close to the Cape Fear coastline. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deepening surface low continues to drift northward toward the Carolina coast this morning. Water vapor satellite shows dry air engulfing the southern flank of the storm aloft. This dry air is eroding the depth of the cloud layer and resulting in decreasing coverage of rain showers over NC and near the NC/SC state line. Radar depicts light drizzle across southeastern NC as of 06Z. However, near the coast of SC, satellite is hinting at some elevated instability helping to sustain heavier bands of rain over the nearshore waters. These bands are attempting to move onshore near the Georgetown coast. Light to moderate rain should continue over SC for a large portion of the day. As the low settles near the SC coast today, the bulk of moisture and rainfall will pool west of the center, impacting coastal northeast SC as mentioned above. Concerns are growing that isolated flooding near the Georgetown/Williamsburg could be a concern by this afternoon. HREF probs suggest that LPMM 24-hour QPF totals of up to 10 inches are possible through 00Z Monday. There is also a wide swath through much of Williamsburg, Georgetown, and Horry county that suggests up to 5 inches of rain may be possible. This is especially true if elevated instability enhances rain rates as HREF probs suggest. While there is some evidence of elevated instability existing aloft, model soundings suggest that instability will be limited. Given the poor handling of this system thus far, its safe to say that confidence remains low. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will be centered off the NC coast Monday morning and will move farther out to sea during the day. Residual low level moisture circling the low may be deep enough for some coastal showers lingering through Monday morning. Isentropic analysis on the 300K surface near the middle of the shallow moist layer shows modest downglide so no additional significant rainfall amounts are anticipated. I`ll hang onto 20-30 percent rain chances from Myrtle Beach and Whiteville east to the Cape Fear coast Monday morning. Despite northerly winds Monday, drying will be slow to occur as low level parcels still will originate from the ocean off the Mid Atlantic coast in the cyclonic flow circling the offshore low. A considerable stratocumulus cloud deck could remain in place throughout the day, especially along the coast. Monday`s highs should range from 71-75, warmest across the Pee Dee region. Skies should clear Monday night with lows falling into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1034 mb Canadian high pressure will move across North Dakota on Tuesday and into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. This should maintain dry northerly winds across the Carolinas. Under mainly clear skies highs should range from the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s. A strong shortwave will dive southeastward across New England on Wednesday, zipping out into the Atlantic north of Bermuda Wednesday night. This will push a dry cold front across the area Wednesday night with the chillest airmass of the season building across the Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Even with sunshine, highs both days will range from the upper 60s (!) in the Cape Fear region to the lower 70s across the Pee Dee region with dewpoints falling into the upper 30s to 40s. The real magic happens Thursday night/Friday morning as good radiational cooling will occur in the dry Canadian airmass and lows should fall into the 40s all the way down to the beaches! Our current forecast of 46 in Wilmington would be the coldest since the morning of April 17. Here`s how other cities stack up for the morning of Friday October 17: Location Forecast Low Last Time This Chilly Wilmington.........46..............April 17 Lumberton..........44..............April 18 N. Myrtle Beach....49..............April 28 Florence...........45..............April 17 The surface ridge axis should push offshore Friday with moderating temperatures and dewpoints expected over the weekend as winds turn southerly. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ceilings continue to hover around 1k feet AGL. IFR is expected where rainfall is occurring and MVFR continues to exist elsewhere. Most of the area should see a general trend toward IFR this morning as a pool of moisture shifts back to the north. Some MVFR is expected for the afternoon as dry air aloft begins to work its way southward. Winds will continue to gust near 30 knots at the coast and 20 knots inland this morning. With slightly deeper mixing during the day, expect gusts up to 30 knots across the entire area (possibly a brief gust to 35 knots at the coast). Extended Outlook... Low clouds continue tonight as northeast winds return and the surface low remains located near the coast. Conditions should begin to improve on Monday, albeit a little breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Strong gales continue as a surface low drifts northward today. Models indicate that the gradient will begin to weaken later this afternoon and the remnant gales should be replaced by a Small Craft with winds 25-30 knots. This is likely to be an extended periods of SCA conditions due primarily to seas. Monday through Thursday...Low pressure should be located off the NC coast Monday morning and will accelerate out to the northeast during the day. Breezy northwest winds 20-25 knots during the morning should diminish to 15- 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas still running as high as 6-7 feet out beyond 10 miles from shore mean we`ll almost certainly need a Small Craft Advisory Monday, perhaps even lingering into Monday evening for the Cape Fear waters. Our attention will then turn to Canadian high pressure moving from North Dakota on Tuesday to the Great Lakes on Thursday. The slow approach of this high should lead to an extended period of northerly winds here in the Carolinas. Most models show a nighttime increase in winds Wednesday night up to around 20 knots as cooler air surges southward. Moderate north-northeasterly winds should continue on Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Strong northerly winds will also create a strong north to south longshore current for Pender and New Hanover beaches on Sunday. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but winds will be more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, has been extended through early Sunday evening due to the much slower movement of the surface low, keeping the surf elevated at 6 feet or higher. Minor coastal flooding continues is expected to continue with the higher high tide during the afternoon through Monday for the Lower Cape Fear River and Wrightsville Beach. Springmaid Pier and SC beaches are expected to receive minor flooding with the afternoon high tide on Sunday with normal water levels returning on Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256. && $$ |
| #1248138 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1007 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue today and tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move offshore Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .UPDATE... Flash flooding is ongoing across coastal Georgetown county, including the City of Georgetown. 6-8" of rain has already fallen, with radar estimates showing locally higher amounts possible. Rain rates have decreased across Georgetown, but flooding will be slow to subside, particularly with high tide upcoming in a couple of hours making it tougher for water to drain. Also monitoring rainfall totals across coastal Horry county, where a Flood Advisory is currently in effect. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deepening surface low continues to drift northward toward the Carolina coast this morning. Water vapor satellite shows dry air engulfing the southern flank of the storm aloft. This dry air is eroding the depth of the cloud layer and resulting in decreasing coverage of rain showers over NC and near the NC/SC state line. Radar depicts light drizzle across southeastern NC as of 06Z. However, near the coast of SC, satellite is hinting at some elevated instability helping to sustain heavier bands of rain over the nearshore waters. These bands are attempting to move onshore near the Georgetown coast. Light to moderate rain should continue over SC for a large portion of the day. As the low settles near the SC coast today, the bulk of moisture and rainfall will pool west of the center, impacting coastal northeast SC as mentioned above. Concerns are growing that isolated flooding near the Georgetown/Williamsburg could be a concern by this afternoon. HREF probs suggest that LPMM 24-hour QPF totals of up to 10 inches are possible through 00Z Monday. There is also a wide swath through much of Williamsburg, Georgetown, and Horry county that suggests up to 5 inches of rain may be possible. This is especially true if elevated instability enhances rain rates as HREF probs suggest. While there is some evidence of elevated instability existing aloft, model soundings suggest that instability will be limited. Given the poor handling of this system thus far, its safe to say that confidence remains low. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will be centered off the NC coast Monday morning and will move farther out to sea during the day. Residual low level moisture circling the low may be deep enough for some coastal showers lingering through Monday morning. Isentropic analysis on the 300K surface near the middle of the shallow moist layer shows modest downglide so no additional significant rainfall amounts are anticipated. I`ll hang onto 20-30 percent rain chances from Myrtle Beach and Whiteville east to the Cape Fear coast Monday morning. Despite northerly winds Monday, drying will be slow to occur as low level parcels still will originate from the ocean off the Mid Atlantic coast in the cyclonic flow circling the offshore low. A considerable stratocumulus cloud deck could remain in place throughout the day, especially along the coast. Monday`s highs should range from 71-75, warmest across the Pee Dee region. Skies should clear Monday night with lows falling into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1034 mb Canadian high pressure will move across North Dakota on Tuesday and into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. This should maintain dry northerly winds across the Carolinas. Under mainly clear skies highs should range from the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s. A strong shortwave will dive southeastward across New England on Wednesday, zipping out into the Atlantic north of Bermuda Wednesday night. This will push a dry cold front across the area Wednesday night with the chillest airmass of the season building across the Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Even with sunshine, highs both days will range from the upper 60s (!) in the Cape Fear region to the lower 70s across the Pee Dee region with dewpoints falling into the upper 30s to 40s. The real magic happens Thursday night/Friday morning as good radiational cooling will occur in the dry Canadian airmass and lows should fall into the 40s all the way down to the beaches! Our current forecast of 46 in Wilmington would be the coldest since the morning of April 17. Here`s how other cities stack up for the morning of Friday October 17: Location Forecast Low Last Time This Chilly Wilmington.........46..............April 17 Lumberton..........44..............April 18 N. Myrtle Beach....49..............April 28 Florence...........45..............April 17 The surface ridge axis should push offshore Friday with moderating temperatures and dewpoints expected over the weekend as winds turn southerly. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ceilings continue to hover around 1k feet AGL. IFR is expected where rainfall is occurring and MVFR continues to exist elsewhere. Most of the area should see a general trend toward IFR this morning as a pool of moisture shifts back to the north. Some MVFR is expected for the afternoon as dry air aloft begins to work its way southward. Winds will continue to gust near 30 knots at the coast and 20 knots inland this morning. With slightly deeper mixing during the day, expect gusts up to 30 knots across the entire area (possibly a brief gust to 35 knots at the coast). Extended Outlook... Low clouds continue tonight as northeast winds return and the surface low remains located near the coast. Conditions should begin to improve on Monday, albeit a little breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Strong gales continue as a surface low drifts northward today. Models indicate that the gradient will begin to weaken later this afternoon and the remnant gales should be replaced by a Small Craft with winds 25-30 knots. This is likely to be an extended periods of SCA conditions due primarily to seas. Monday through Thursday...Low pressure should be located off the NC coast Monday morning and will accelerate out to the northeast during the day. Breezy northwest winds 20-25 knots during the morning should diminish to 15- 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas still running as high as 6-7 feet out beyond 10 miles from shore mean we`ll almost certainly need a Small Craft Advisory Monday, perhaps even lingering into Monday evening for the Cape Fear waters. Our attention will then turn to Canadian high pressure moving from North Dakota on Tuesday to the Great Lakes on Thursday. The slow approach of this high should lead to an extended period of northerly winds here in the Carolinas. Most models show a nighttime increase in winds Wednesday night up to around 20 knots as cooler air surges southward. Moderate north-northeasterly winds should continue on Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Strong northerly winds will also create a strong north to south longshore current for Pender and New Hanover beaches on Sunday. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but winds will be more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, has been extended through early Sunday evening due to the much slower movement of the surface low, keeping the surf elevated at 6 feet or higher. Minor coastal flooding continues is expected to continue with the higher high tide during the afternoon through Monday for the Lower Cape Fear River and Wrightsville Beach. Springmaid Pier and SC beaches are expected to receive minor flooding with the afternoon high tide on Sunday with normal water levels returning on Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
| #1248118 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 657 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue today and tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move offshore Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .UPDATE... No significant changes with the 7 AM EDT update. Routine aviation discussion included below for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deepening surface low continues to drift northward toward the Carolina coast this morning. Water vapor satellite shows dry air engulfing the southern flank of the storm aloft. This dry air is eroding the depth of the cloud layer and resulting in decreasing coverage of rain showers over NC and near the NC/SC state line. Radar depicts light drizzle across southeastern NC as of 06Z. However, near the coast of SC, satellite is hinting at some elevated instability helping to sustain heavier bands of rain over the nearshore waters. These bands are attempting to move onshore near the Georgetown coast. Light to moderate rain should continue over SC for a large portion of the day. As the low settles near the SC coast today, the bulk of moisture and rainfall will pool west of the center, impacting coastal northeast SC as mentioned above. Concerns are growing that isolated flooding near the Georgetown/Williamsburg could be a concern by this afternoon. HREF probs suggest that LPMM 24-hour QPF totals of up to 10 inches are possible through 00Z Monday. There is also a wide swath through much of Williamsburg, Georgetown, and Horry county that suggests up to 5 inches of rain may be possible. This is especially true if elevated instability enhances rain rates as HREF probs suggest. While there is some evidence of elevated instability existing aloft, model soundings suggest that instability will be limited. Given the poor handling of this system thus far, its safe to say that confidence remains low. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will be centered off the NC coast Monday morning and will move farther out to sea during the day. Residual low level moisture circling the low may be deep enough for some coastal showers lingering through Monday morning. Isentropic analysis on the 300K surface near the middle of the shallow moist layer shows modest downglide so no additional significant rainfall amounts are anticipated. I`ll hang onto 20-30 percent rain chances from Myrtle Beach and Whiteville east to the Cape Fear coast Monday morning. Despite northerly winds Monday, drying will be slow to occur as low level parcels still will originate from the ocean off the Mid Atlantic coast in the cyclonic flow circling the offshore low. A considerable stratocumulus cloud deck could remain in place throughout the day, especially along the coast. Monday`s highs should range from 71-75, warmest across the Pee Dee region. Skies should clear Monday night with lows falling into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1034 mb Canadian high pressure will move across North Dakota on Tuesday and into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. This should maintain dry northerly winds across the Carolinas. Under mainly clear skies highs should range from the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s. A strong shortwave will dive southeastward across New England on Wednesday, zipping out into the Atlantic north of Bermuda Wednesday night. This will push a dry cold front across the area Wednesday night with the chillest airmass of the season building across the Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Even with sunshine, highs both days will range from the upper 60s (!) in the Cape Fear region to the lower 70s across the Pee Dee region with dewpoints falling into the upper 30s to 40s. The real magic happens Thursday night/Friday morning as good radiational cooling will occur in the dry Canadian airmass and lows should fall into the 40s all the way down to the beaches! Our current forecast of 46 in Wilmington would be the coldest since the morning of April 17. Here`s how other cities stack up for the morning of Friday October 17: Location Forecast Low Last Time This Chilly Wilmington.........46..............April 17 Lumberton..........44..............April 18 N. Myrtle Beach....49..............April 28 Florence...........45..............April 17 The surface ridge axis should push offshore Friday with moderating temperatures and dewpoints expected over the weekend as winds turn southerly. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ceilings continue to hover around 1k feet AGL. IFR is expected where rainfall is occurring and MVFR continues to exist elsewhere. Most of the area should see a general trend toward IFR this morning as a pool of moisture shifts back to the north. Some MVFR is expected for the afternoon as dry air aloft begins to work its way southward. Winds will continue to gust near 30 knots at the coast and 20 knots inland this morning. With slightly deeper mixing during the day, expect gusts up to 30 knots across the entire area (possibly a brief gust to 35 knots at the coast). Extended Outlook... Low clouds continue tonight as northeast winds return and the surface low remains located near the coast. Conditions should begin to improve on Monday, albeit a little breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Strong gales continue as a surface low drifts northward today. Models indicate that the gradient will begin to weaken later this afternoon and the remnant gales should be replaced by a Small Craft with winds 25-30 knots. This is likely to be an extended periods of SCA conditions due primarily to seas. Monday through Thursday...Low pressure should be located off the NC coast Monday morning and will accelerate out to the northeast during the day. Breezy northwest winds 20-25 knots during the morning should diminish to 15- 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas still running as high as 6-7 feet out beyond 10 miles from shore mean we`ll almost certainly need a Small Craft Advisory Monday, perhaps even lingering into Monday evening for the Cape Fear waters. Our attention will then turn to Canadian high pressure moving from North Dakota on Tuesday to the Great Lakes on Thursday. The slow approach of this high should lead to an extended period of northerly winds here in the Carolinas. Most models show a nighttime increase in winds Wednesday night up to around 20 knots as cooler air surges southward. Moderate north-northeasterly winds should continue on Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Strong northerly winds will also create a strong north to south longshore current for Pender and New Hanover beaches on Sunday. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but winds will be more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, has been extended through early Sunday evening due to the much slower movement of the surface low, keeping the surf elevated at 6 feet or higher. Minor coastal flooding continues is expected to continue with the higher high tide during the afternoon through Monday for the Lower Cape Fear River and Wrightsville Beach. Springmaid Pier and SC beaches are expected to receive minor flooding with the afternoon high tide on Sunday with normal water levels returning on Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
| #1248107 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 246 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue today and tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear. The low will move offshore Monday with drier weather expected. The chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deepening surface low continues to drift northward toward the Carolina coast this morning. Water vapor satellite shows dry air engulfing the southern flank of the storm aloft. This dry air is eroding the depth of the cloud layer and resulting in decreasing coverage of rain showers over NC and near the NC/SC state line. Radar depicts light drizzle across southeastern NC as of 06Z. However, near the coast of SC, satellite is hinting at some elevated instability helping to sustain heavier bands of rain over the nearshore waters. These bands are attempting to move onshore near the Georgetown coast. Light to moderate rain should continue over SC for a large portion of the day. As the low settles near the SC coast today, the bulk of moisture and rainfall will pool west of the center, impacting coastal northeast SC as mentioned above. Concerns are growing that isolated flooding near the Georgetown/Williamsburg could be a concern by this afternoon. HREF probs suggest that LPMM 24-hour QPF totals of up to 10 inches are possible through 00Z Monday. There is also a wide swath through much of Williamsburg, Georgetown, and Horry county that suggests up to 5 inches of rain may be possible. This is especially true if elevated instability enhances rain rates as HREF probs suggest. While there is some evidence of elevated instability existing aloft, model soundings suggest that instability will be limited. Given the poor handling of this system thus far, its safe to say that confidence remains low. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will be centered off the NC coast Monday morning and will move farther out to sea during the day. Residual low level moisture circling the low may be deep enough for some coastal showers lingering through Monday morning. Isentropic analysis on the 300K surface near the middle of the shallow moist layer shows modest downglide so no additional significant rainfall amounts are anticipated. I`ll hang onto 20-30 percent rain chances from Myrtle Beach and Whiteville east to the Cape Fear coast Monday morning. Despite northerly winds Monday, drying will be slow to occur as low level parcels still will originate from the ocean off the Mid Atlantic coast in the cyclonic flow circling the offshore low. A considerable stratocumulus cloud deck could remain in place throughout the day, especially along the coast. Monday`s highs should range from 71-75, warmest across the Pee Dee region. Skies should clear Monday night with lows falling into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1034 mb Canadian high pressure will move across North Dakota on Tuesday and into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. This should maintain dry northerly winds across the Carolinas. Under mainly clear skies highs should range from the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s. A strong shortwave will dive southeastward across New England on Wednesday, zipping out into the Atlantic north of Bermuda Wednesday night. This will push a dry cold front across the area Wednesday night with the chillest airmass of the season building across the Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Even with sunshine, highs both days will range from the upper 60s (!) in the Cape Fear region to the lower 70s across the Pee Dee region with dewpoints falling into the upper 30s to 40s. The real magic happens Thursday night/Friday morning as good radiational cooling will occur in the dry Canadian airmass and lows should fall into the 40s all the way down to the beaches! Our current forecast of 46 in Wilmington would be the coldest since the morning of April 17. Here`s how other cities stack up for the morning of Friday October 17: Location Forecast Low Last Time This Chilly Wilmington.........46..............April 17 Lumberton..........44..............April 18 N. Myrtle Beach....49..............April 28 Florence...........45..............April 17 The surface ridge axis should push offshore Friday with moderating temperatures and dewpoints expected over the weekend as winds turn southerly. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Predominantly MVFR with periodic IFR expected through sunrise. The surface low is ingesting a large amount of dry air and northerly winds have helped to decrease coverage of showers. North to northwest winds will also help low level dry air maintain MVFR rather than widespread IFR, despite the inversion. As the low approaches the coast, winds should turn northeasterly and bring IFR conditions to a larger portion of the forecast area during the day on Sunday. Confidence is low and MVFR could prevail for a good portion of the day. Winds will continue to gust near 30 knots at the coast and 20 knots inland this morning. With slightly deeper mixing during the day, expect gusts up to 30 knots across the entire area (possibly a brief gust to 35 knots at the coast). Extended Outlook... Low clouds continue tonight as northeast winds return and the surface low remains located near the coast. Conditions should begin to improve on Monday, albeit a little breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Strong gales continue as a surface low drifts northward today. Models indicate that the gradient will begin to weaken later this afternoon and the remnant gales should be replaced by a Small Craft with winds 25-30 knots. This is likely to be an extended periods of SCA conditions due primarily to seas. Monday through Thursday...Low pressure should be located off the NC coast Monday morning and will accelerate out to the northeast during the day. Breezy northwest winds 20-25 knots during the morning should diminish to 15- 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas still running as high as 6-7 feet out beyond 10 miles from shore mean we`ll almost certainly need a Small Craft Advisory Monday, perhaps even lingering into Monday evening for the Cape Fear waters. Our attention will then turn to Canadian high pressure moving from North Dakota on Tuesday to the Great Lakes on Thursday. The slow approach of this high should lead to an extended period of northerly winds here in the Carolinas. Most models show a nighttime increase in winds Wednesday night up to around 20 knots as cooler air surges southward. Moderate north-northeasterly winds should continue on Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing beaches. Strong northerly winds will also create a strong north to south longshore current for Pender and New Hanover beaches on Sunday. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but winds will be more offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, has been extended through early Sunday evening due to the much slower movement of the surface low, keeping the surf elevated at 6 feet or higher. Minor coastal flooding continues is expected to continue with the higher high tide during the afternoon through Monday for the Lower Cape Fear River and Wrightsville Beach. Springmaid Pier and SC beaches are expected to receive minor flooding with the afternoon high tide on Sunday with normal water levels returning on Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
