Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1252904 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:15 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will bring well below normal temperatures and much drier air Thanksgiving Day through Saturday. High pressure will move off the coast by Sunday as a cold front approaches. Rain chances increase into next week as a wave of low pressure moves up the Southeast coast, drying expected behind this disturbance. && .UPDATE... Updated dewpoints to account for delayed decrease in RH behind the now offshore cold front, with potential for dewpoints in the teens this afternoon. 12z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Strong, dry cold front currently near I-95 will move offshore by dawn, with dry, cool air behind it. High temps today will be 20+ degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs in the mid 50s due to CAA as 850mb temps continue a downward trend throughout the day and into tonight. Strong 500mb trough moves across this afternoon, but with PWATs dropping to 0.2" by this afternoon (and <0.15 tonight) we might not even see more than a few clouds with the trough passage. CAA in full force tonight with deep WNW flow behind upper trough passage. Elevated boundary layer winds as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west will limit radiational cooling tonight. That said, widespread temperatures around 27F-30F are expected by Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cold and dry with high pressure in control through most of the period. Highs near 50 Friday and Saturday. One note of uncertainty will be winds Friday night as inland areas could approach record cold. Either we have calm winds and the forecast ends up colder, or we have light winds with near 20 temperatures. Compared to yesterday the cloud cover forecast is less aggressive so for now that seems to be a non-factor compared to the winds. Both results cause some spots, particularly inland, to reach apparent temperatures in the teens, the question will be how low and how long as for now it`s just a couple hours near dawn and not reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria of 15F. Sheltered areas and traditionally colder spots (Holly shelter, Green Swamp, etc) could be 5-10 degrees colder than forecast if we get no wind. Saturday night looks much less complicated as we start to warm up in the wake of the departing high, however lows will still be near to just below freezing away from the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warming Sunday as the high moves off and a coastal trough develops. Depending on how far this trough moves inland and the WAA ahead of our next front we could see a 15-20 deg increase in the highs on Sunday. A cold front will move through sometime Monday, stalling offshore and knocking us back into the 50s. This frontal passage could be accompanied by some storms, mainly near the coast. Low pressure forming along the front Tuesday could lead to enhanced rain chances. Returning high pressure could lead to drier conditions by midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Dry cold front now offshore, with mostly clear skies prevailing through tonight. 5-10 kt N winds today, with gusts 10-15 kt during the afternoon, becoming light NW winds tonight. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief flight restrictions possible early next week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Strong, dry cold front moving across our inland areas now will be offshore by morning. NNW winds 10-15 kts during the day today will increase to 15-20 kts tonight with occasional gusts to 25 kts due to CAA surge. Seas generally 2-3 ft today through tonight, primarily NNW wind chop with weak ESE swell mixed in. Friday through Monday...Offshore winds ~15-20 kts will relax into Saturday as high pressure builds in. SW winds will return Sunday as the high moves away before becoming offshore once more Monday as a cold front moves through, strong N/NE winds through the rest of the period. Seas will be 2-3 ft will increase Monday ahead of the front to 3-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1252888 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 107 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will bring well below normal temperatures and much drier air Thanksgiving Day through Saturday. High pressure will move off the coast by Sunday as a cold front approaches. Rain chances increase into next week as a wave of low pressure moves up the Southeast coast, drying expected behind this disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Strong, dry cold front currently near I-95 will move offshore by dawn, with dry, cool air behind it. High temps today will be 20+ degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs in the mid 50s due to CAA as 850mb temps continue a downward trend throughout the day and into tonight. Strong 500mb trough moves across this afternoon, but with PWATs dropping to 0.2" by this afternoon (and <0.15 tonight) we might not even see more than a few clouds with the trough passage. CAA in full force tonight with deep WNW flow behind upper trough passage. Elevated boundary layer winds as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west will limit radiational cooling tonight. That said, widespread temperatures around 27F-30F are expected by Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cold and dry with high pressure in control through most of the period. Highs near 50 Friday and Saturday. One note of uncertainty will be winds Friday night as inland areas could approach record cold. Either we have calm winds and the forecast ends up colder, or we have light winds with near 20 temperatures. Compared to yesterday the cloud cover forecast is less aggressive so for now that seems to be a non-factor compared to the winds. Both results cause some spots, particularly inland, to reach apparent temperatures in the teens, the question will be how low and how long as for now it`s just a couple hours near dawn and not reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria of 15F. Sheltered areas and traditionally colder spots (Holly shelter, Green Swamp, etc) could be 5-10 degrees colder than forecast if we get no wind. Saturday night looks much less complicated as we start to warm up in the wake of the departing high, however lows will still be near to just below freezing away from the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warming Sunday as the high moves off and a coastal trough develops. Depending on how far this trough moves inland and the WAA ahead of our next front we could see a 15-20 deg increase in the highs on Sunday. A cold front will move through sometime Monday, stalling offshore and knocking us back into the 50s. This frontal passage could be accompanied by some storms, mainly near the coast. Low pressure forming along the front Tuesday could lead to enhanced rain chances. Returning high pressure could lead to drier conditions by midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Dry cold front moving across the area now will be offshore by morning, with clear skies prevailing through tonight. Light NW winds through TAF period, with gusts 10-15 kt during the afternoon. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief flight restrictions possible early next week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Strong, dry cold front moving across our inland areas now will be offshore by morning. NNW winds 10-15 kts during the day today will increase to 15-20 kts tonight with occasional gusts to 25 kts due to CAA surge. Seas generally 2-3 ft today through tonight, primarily NNW wind chop with weak ESE swell mixed in. Friday through Monday...Offshore winds ~15-20 kts will relax into Saturday as high pressure builds in. SW winds will return Sunday as the high moves away before becoming offshore once more Monday as a cold front moves through, strong N/NE winds through the rest of the period. Seas will be 2-3 ft will increase Monday ahead of the front to 3-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
