|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1230807 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 16.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 727 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Added patchy fog to the I-75 corridor for the pre-dawn hours. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Hot and dry conditions remain ongoing this afternoon within stacked high pressure in control across the area. High pressure ridge to our south and east has allowed a modest southwesterly flow to develop, resulting in temperatures soaring above average into the 90s essentially all the way to the coast with a sea breeze pinned just offshore. Below normal PWATs in the 1 inch range are not only curtailing any convective chances for the area today, but also limiting any sort of cloud cover as the drier air aloft mixes down diurnally. Temps top out generally in the low to mid 90s under the mostly sunny skies and offshore breezes around 10 mph. Mild lows tonight with upper 60s and low 70s common. Some patchy fog and low stratus will be possible inland with southwesterly flow advecting moisture off the gulf tonight, though given the drier than normal airmass and a bit of a breeze keeping up overnight, not confident enough to include any fog in the forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Mostly dry weather conditions will continue on Saturday and into Sunday as high pressure ridging extends across the Florida peninsula with a potential for showers forming over southeast Georgia during the weekend, dependent on the positioning of a frontal boundary to the north and if a few weak upper level waves along with moist air extends southward into the forecast area. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday with chances for showers and storms increasing on Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal boundary presses in from out of the northwest. Drier weather conditions are expected to return by the end of the week as drier air and high pressure ridging extends over the forecast area. High temperatures for next week will start off well above the seasonal average, with max temps reaching into the mid to upper 90s, with temps experiencing a slight cooling trend after midweek and becoming closer to the seasonal average by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Mainly VFR conditions with WSW winds prevail through the period. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible at VQQ and GNV between 08-12Z lowering VSBYs to MVFR. Brief IFR/LIFR ceilings will be possible with the stratus. WSW winds increase to around 10 kts after 15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will remain in control across local waters through the weekend and into the start of next week as ridging over the Florida Peninsula moves very little. A weakening cold front will approach GA waters Sunday afternoon, though stall north of all waters with very little chances for showers and/or thunderstorms continuing. High pressure looks to hold across the area through early next week before our next front approaches mid week. Rip Currents: Rip current risk is low at area beaches at time through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Daily record high temperatures were broken today (5/16) at Jacksonville and Craig. Record High Temperatures at climate sites through early next week: Saturday May 17: KJAX: 96/1995 KCRG: 93/2001 KAMG: 94/2001 KGNV: 96/1915 Sunday May 18: KJAX: 96/1899 KCRG: 93/2001 KAMG: 95/2001 KGNV: 97/1930 Monday May 19: KJAX: 97/1960 KCRG: 95/2022 KAMG: 97/1960 KGNV: 99/1899 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 92 70 92 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 71 91 74 89 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 68 96 69 96 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 70 95 69 93 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 67 94 67 95 / 0 10 0 0 OCF 67 93 67 94 / 0 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1230776 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 16.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 232 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Hot and dry conditions remain ongoing this afternoon within stacked high pressure in control across the area. High pressure ridge to our south and east has allowed a modest southwesterly flow to develop, resulting in temperatures soaring above average into the 90s essentially all the way to the coast with a sea breeze pinned just offshore. Below normal PWATs in the 1 inch range are not only curtailing any convective chances for the area today, but also limiting any sort of cloud cover as the drier air aloft mixes down diurnally. Temps top out generally in the low to mid 90s under the mostly sunny skies and offshore breezes around 10 mph. Mild lows tonight with upper 60s and low 70s common. Some patchy fog and low stratus will be possible inland with southwesterly flow advecting moisture off the gulf tonight, though given the drier than normal airmass and a bit of a breeze keeping up overnight, not confident enough to include any fog in the forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Mostly dry weather conditions will continue on Saturday and into Sunday as high pressure ridging extends across the Florida peninsula with a potential for showers forming over southeast Georgia during the weekend, dependent on the positioning of a frontal boundary to the north and if a few weak upper level waves along with moist air extends southward into the forecast area. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday with chances for showers and storms increasing on Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal boundary presses in from out of the northwest. Drier weather conditions are expected to return by the end of the week as drier air and high pressure ridging extends over the forecast area. High temperatures for next week will start off well above the seasonal average, with max temps reaching into the mid to upper 90s, with temps experiencing a slight cooling trend after midweek and becoming closer to the seasonal average by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will continue through at least the first part of tonight as dry high pressure is in control. Winds near or just above 10 knots will also be common through about sunset, especially at coastal terminals. Some FU could also continue over the next few hours at JAX due to the nearby garage fire. Chances for FG and low stratus will be expected again at inland terminals late tonight and into Saturday Morning, which could expand as far east as JAX/CRG as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will remain in control across local waters through the weekend and into the start of next week as ridging over the Florida Peninsula moves very little. A weakening cold front will approach GA waters Sunday afternoon, though stall north of all waters with very little chances for showers and/or thunderstorms continuing. High pressure looks to hold across the area through early next week before our next front approaches mid week. Rip Currents: Rip current risk is low at area beaches at time through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Record High Temperatures at climate sites through early next week: Friday May 16: KJAX: 96/1995 KCRG: 94/1994 KAMG: 95/1990 KGNV: 98/1896 Saturday May 17: KJAX: 96/1995 KCRG: 93/2001 KAMG: 94/2001 KGNV: 96/1915 Sunday May 18: KJAX: 96/1899 KCRG: 93/2001 KAMG: 95/2001 KGNV: 97/1930 Monday May 19: KJAX: 97/1960 KCRG: 95/2022 KAMG: 97/1960 KGNV: 99/1899 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 92 70 92 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 71 91 74 89 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 68 96 69 96 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 70 95 69 93 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 67 94 67 95 / 0 10 0 0 OCF 67 93 67 94 / 0 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1230768 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 16.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 149 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Little changes to the forecast this morning. Low clouds and fog continue to rapidly dissipate, with a mainly sunny and hot day in store with highs flirting with record values by this afternoon. Excellent mixing this afternoon should allow dew points to drop into the low 60s over the interior, and therefore avoid any significant heat indices towards advisory criteria. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Low stratus clouds and some potential for patchy to areas of fog will expand across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA through the predawn and early morning hours, with this low cloud cover likely reaching the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards sunrise. Lower clouds should remain west of the I-95 corridor this morning, with mixing after sunrise likely allowing these lower ceilings to lift by mid-morning at inland locations. Periods of mostly thin cirrus will continue to spill overtop of the ridge and across our area through tonight. Otherwise, west- southwesterly low level flow will delay the development of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to the early to mid afternoon hours at coastal locations. A dry and increasingly subsident atmosphere will allow for dewpoints to potentially fall to around 60 at inland locations this afternoon as filtered sunshine allows temperatures to soar to the mid and upper 90s at inland locations. These values will challenge daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites (see "Climate" section below for details). This dry air mass will keep maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100, with coastal locations more likely to experience "feels-like" temperatures near the century mark as the afternoon sea breeze moves slowly inland, bumping coastal dewpoints back to the upper 60s to around 70 by the mid to late afternoon. This sea breeze will struggle to reach the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon, and its delayed development will yield highs in the lower 90s all the way to area beaches during the early to mid afternoon hours before an onshore breeze drops temperatures back to the upper 80s before sunset. Another round of low stratus and potentially some fog development is expected across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA after midnight, with some potential for eastward expansion of these low stratus ceilings and fog towards sunrise. Light westerly low level winds will otherwise prevail overnight, with lows only falling to the upper 60s inland and around 70 at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will be centered to the southeast Saturday, with ridging extending west across southern FL. A cold front will drop into central GA Saturday afternoon. This pattern will then linger through Sunday night. The real question this period will be whether the front sinks far enough to be a focus for convection into SE GA. A few weak upper waves pass along the frontal zone during the period, which could cause the boundary to waiver a bit from north to south, otherwise there is not much support to push boundary into forecast area. So, at this point precipitation chances will be kept on the low side this period over SE GA, and NE FL will be kept dry. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages throughout this period. With dewpoints largely in the 60s throughout this time frame, heat will not make it to advisory levels. With the prevailing flow from the west southwest between the ridge and the front, the heat will make it all the way to the beaches, with little, if any afternoon push inland of the east coast sea breeze. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The high pressure ridge will lift to the north into central FL Monday into Tuesday, with frontal boundary also moving further to the north. A ridge will be in place at 500mb. Subsidence under these two ridges and moisture still on the low side will provide dry weather for the start of the week. The ridge will move away to the southeast Tuesday night, as an upper trough digs into the southeastern US, and a cold front moves into southeastern US. Long term models have timing differences in the cold frontal passage, but in general looking at the Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon time frame. Too early to determine potential strength of storms on the frontal passage, but indications are that there will be a fairly significant thermal boundary with it, suggesting it could be a strong passage. Temperatures will continue above average throughout this period. Thursday would start a trend toward lower readings. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will continue through at least the first part of tonight as dry high pressure is in control. Winds near or just above 10 knots will also be common through about sunset, especially at coastal terminals. Some FU could also continue over the next few hours at JAX due to the nearby garage fire. Chances for FG and low stratus will be expected again at inland terminals late tonight and into Saturday Morning, which could expand as far east as JAX/CRG as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis across the Florida peninsula through the weekend and early next week, keeping a prevailing offshore wind flow in place across our local waters. The afternoon sea breeze will shift winds to south and southeasterly for the near shore waters through around sunset, with winds shifting to southerly during the evening hours. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. A weakening frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states late this weekend, but this front will stall to the north of the Georgia waters. An isolated late afternoon or evening thunderstorm is possible over the Georgia waters on Sunday. The next significant frontal boundary will move across our local waters by late Wednesday or Thursday, possibly accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights should keep the risk low through at least midweek next week. Afternoon sea breezes will increase surf heights somewhat, but a weak easterly ocean swell will not raise the risk appreciably. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures through Tuesday at our designated climate sites: Fri 5/16 Sat 5/17 Sun 5/18 Mon 5/19 Tues 5/20 -------------------------------------------------- Jacksonville 96/1995 96/1995 96/1899 97/1960 99/1962 Gainesville 98/1896 96/1915 97/1930 99/1899 97/1938 Alma, GA 95/1990 94/2001 95/2001 97/1960 99/1962 Craig Airport 94/1994 93/2001 93/2001 92/2006 97/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 71 91 75 89 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 68 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 70 95 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 67 93 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 67 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1230746 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 AM 16.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 959 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Little changes to the forecast this morning. Low clouds and fog continue to rapidly dissipate, with a mainly sunny and hot day in store with highs flirting with record values by this afternoon. Excellent mixing this afternoon should allow dew points to drop into the low 60s over the interior, and therefore avoid any significant heat indices towards advisory criteria. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Low stratus clouds and some potential for patchy to areas of fog will expand across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA through the predawn and early morning hours, with this low cloud cover likely reaching the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards sunrise. Lower clouds should remain west of the I-95 corridor this morning, with mixing after sunrise likely allowing these lower ceilings to lift by mid-morning at inland locations. Periods of mostly thin cirrus will continue to spill overtop of the ridge and across our area through tonight. Otherwise, west- southwesterly low level flow will delay the development of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to the early to mid afternoon hours at coastal locations. A dry and increasingly subsident atmosphere will allow for dewpoints to potentially fall to around 60 at inland locations this afternoon as filtered sunshine allows temperatures to soar to the mid and upper 90s at inland locations. These values will challenge daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites (see "Climate" section below for details). This dry air mass will keep maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100, with coastal locations more likely to experience "feels-like" temperatures near the century mark as the afternoon sea breeze moves slowly inland, bumping coastal dewpoints back to the upper 60s to around 70 by the mid to late afternoon. This sea breeze will struggle to reach the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon, and its delayed development will yield highs in the lower 90s all the way to area beaches during the early to mid afternoon hours before an onshore breeze drops temperatures back to the upper 80s before sunset. Another round of low stratus and potentially some fog development is expected across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA after midnight, with some potential for eastward expansion of these low stratus ceilings and fog towards sunrise. Light westerly low level winds will otherwise prevail overnight, with lows only falling to the upper 60s inland and around 70 at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will be centered to the southeast Saturday, with ridging extending west across southern FL. A cold front will drop into central GA Saturday afternoon. This pattern will then linger through Sunday night. The real question this period will be whether the front sinks far enough to be a focus for convection into SE GA. A few weak upper waves pass along the frontal zone during the period, which could cause the boundary to waiver a bit from north to south, otherwise there is not much support to push boundary into forecast area. So, at this point precipitation chances will be kept on the low side this period over SE GA, and NE FL will be kept dry. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages throughout this period. With dewpoints largely in the 60s throughout this time frame, heat will not make it to advisory levels. With the prevailing flow from the west southwest between the ridge and the front, the heat will make it all the way to the beaches, with little, if any afternoon push inland of the east coast sea breeze. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The high pressure ridge will lift to the north into central FL Monday into Tuesday, with frontal boundary also moving further to the north. A ridge will be in place at 500mb. Subsidence under these two ridges and moisture still on the low side will provide dry weather for the start of the week. The ridge will move away to the southeast Tuesday night, as an upper trough digs into the southeastern US, and a cold front moves into southeastern US. Long term models have timing differences in the cold frontal passage, but in general looking at the Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon time frame. Too early to determine potential strength of storms on the frontal passage, but indications are that there will be a fairly significant thermal boundary with it, suggesting it could be a strong passage. Temperatures will continue above average throughout this period. Thursday would start a trend toward lower readings. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas of low stratus and fog continue to affect terminals away from the coast this morning, which will persist through about 13 to 14Z before starting to dissipate. Hot and dry otherwise today with primarily a west to southwesterly wind increasing to around 10 knots late this morning and afternoon. A slight sea breeze influence will occur near the immediate coastline at SSI and SGJ by early this afternoon with winds becoming more southerly. Otherwise, no other major operational concerns with conditions too dry for any diurnal convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis across the Florida peninsula through the weekend and early next week, keeping a prevailing offshore wind flow in place across our local waters. The afternoon sea breeze will shift winds to south and southeasterly for the near shore waters through around sunset, with winds shifting to southerly during the evening hours. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. A weakening frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states late this weekend, but this front will stall to the north of the Georgia waters. An isolated late afternoon or evening thunderstorm is possible over the Georgia waters on Sunday. The next significant frontal boundary will move across our local waters by late Wednesday or Thursday, possibly accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights should keep the risk low through at least midweek next week. Afternoon sea breezes will increase surf heights somewhat, but a weak easterly ocean swell will not raise the risk appreciably. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures through Tuesday at our designated climate sites: Fri 5/16 Sat 5/17 Sun 5/18 Mon 5/19 Tues 5/20 -------------------------------------------------- Jacksonville 96/1995 96/1995 96/1899 97/1960 99/1962 Gainesville 98/1896 96/1915 97/1930 99/1899 97/1938 Alma, GA 95/1990 94/2001 95/2001 97/1960 99/1962 Craig Airport 94/1994 93/2001 93/2001 92/2006 97/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 92 71 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 97 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 94 70 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 94 67 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 93 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1230740 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 16.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 747 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Overnight surface analysis depicts Atlantic ridging extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula through the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Arklatex region. Aloft...ridging over the Gulf continues to expand northeastward towards our region. Otherwise, deep troughing over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest was progressing slowly eastward. Latest GOES East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs remain mostly in the 1 - 1.25 inch range, with slightly higher amounts around 1.4 inches located near the Altamaha River in southeast GA. Mostly thin cirrus cloudiness continues to spill over the top of the Gulf ridge that was building towards our area, with latest nighttime infrared satellite imagery showing low stratus cloud cover developing along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley. West-southwesterly winds remain sustained at 5-10 mph at most locations as of 07Z, which was keeping temperatures mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Low stratus clouds and some potential for patchy to areas of fog will expand across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA through the predawn and early morning hours, with this low cloud cover likely reaching the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards sunrise. Lower clouds should remain west of the I-95 corridor this morning, with mixing after sunrise likely allowing these lower ceilings to lift by mid-morning at inland locations. Periods of mostly thin cirrus will continue to spill overtop of the ridge and across our area through tonight. Otherwise, west- southwesterly low level flow will delay the development of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to the early to mid afternoon hours at coastal locations. A dry and increasingly subsident atmosphere will allow for dewpoints to potentially fall to around 60 at inland locations this afternoon as filtered sunshine allows temperatures to soar to the mid and upper 90s at inland locations. These values will challenge daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites (see "Climate" section below for details). This dry air mass will keep maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100, with coastal locations more likely to experience "feels-like" temperatures near the century mark as the afternoon sea breeze moves slowly inland, bumping coastal dewpoints back to the upper 60s to around 70 by the mid to late afternoon. This sea breeze will struggle to reach the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon, and its delayed development will yield highs in the lower 90s all the way to area beaches during the early to mid afternoon hours before an onshore breeze drops temperatures back to the upper 80s before sunset. Another round of low stratus and potentially some fog development is expected across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA after midnight, with some potential for eastward expansion of these low stratus ceilings and fog towards sunrise. Light westerly low level winds will otherwise prevail overnight, with lows only falling to the upper 60s inland and around 70 at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will be centered to the southeast Saturday, with ridging extending west across southern FL. A cold front will drop into central GA Saturday afternoon. This pattern will then linger through Sunday night. The real question this period will be whether the front sinks far enough to be a focus for convection into SE GA. A few weak upper waves pass along the frontal zone during the period, which could cause the boundary to waiver a bit from north to south, otherwise there is not much support to push boundary into forecast area. So, at this point precipitation chances will be kept on the low side this period over SE GA, and NE FL will be kept dry. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages throughout this period. With dewpoints largely in the 60s throughout this time frame, heat will not make it to advisory levels. With the prevailing flow from the west southwest between the ridge and the front, the heat will make it all the way to the beaches, with little, if any afternoon push inland of the east coast sea breeze. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The high pressure ridge will lift to the north into central FL Monday into Tuesday, with frontal boundary also moving further to the north. A ridge will be in place at 500mb. Subsidence under these two ridges and moisture still on the low side will provide dry weather for the start of the week. The ridge will move away to the southeast Tuesday night, as an upper trough digs into the southeastern US, and a cold front moves into southeastern US. Long term models have timing differences in the cold frontal passage, but in general looking at the Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon time frame. Too early to determine potential strength of storms on the frontal passage, but indications are that there will be a fairly significant thermal boundary with it, suggesting it could be a strong passage. Temperatures will continue above average throughout this period. Thursday would start a trend toward lower readings. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas of low stratus and fog continue to affect terminals away from the coast this morning, which will persist through about 13 to 14Z before starting to dissipate. Hot and dry otherwise today with primarily a west to southwesterly wind increasing to around 10 knots late this morning and afternoon. A slight sea breeze influence will occur near the immediate coastline at SSI and SGJ by early this afternoon with winds becoming more southerly. Otherwise, no other major operational concerns with conditions too dry for any diurnal convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis across the Florida peninsula through the weekend and early next week, keeping a prevailing offshore wind flow in place across our local waters. The afternoon sea breeze will shift winds to south and southeasterly for the near shore waters through around sunset, with winds shifting to southerly during the evening hours. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. A weakening frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states late this weekend, but this front will stall to the north of the Georgia waters. An isolated late afternoon or evening thunderstorm is possible over the Georgia waters on Sunday. The next significant frontal boundary will move across our local waters by late Wednesday or Thursday, possibly accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights should keep the risk low through at least midweek next week. Afternoon sea breezes will increase surf heights somewhat, but a weak easterly ocean swell will not raise the risk appreciably. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures through Tuesday at our designated climate sites: Fri 5/16 Sat 5/17 Sun 5/18 Mon 5/19 Tues 5/20 -------------------------------------------------- Jacksonville 96/1995 96/1995 96/1899 97/1960 99/1962 Gainesville 98/1896 96/1915 97/1930 99/1899 97/1938 Alma, GA 95/1990 94/2001 95/2001 97/1960 99/1962 Craig Airport 94/1994 93/2001 93/2001 92/2006 97/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 92 71 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 97 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 93 70 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 94 67 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 92 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1230713 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 16.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 345 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...NEAR RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... ...AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Overnight surface analysis depicts Atlantic ridging extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula through the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Arklatex region. Aloft...ridging over the Gulf continues to expand northeastward towards our region. Otherwise, deep troughing over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest was progressing slowly eastward. Latest GOES East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs remain mostly in the 1 - 1.25 inch range, with slightly higher amounts around 1.4 inches located near the Altamaha River in southeast GA. Mostly thin cirrus cloudiness continues to spill over the top of the Gulf ridge that was building towards our area, with latest nighttime infrared satellite imagery showing low stratus cloud cover developing along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley. West-southwesterly winds remain sustained at 5-10 mph at most locations as of 07Z, which was keeping temperatures mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Low stratus clouds and some potential for patchy to areas of fog will expand across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA through the predawn and early morning hours, with this low cloud cover likely reaching the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards sunrise. Lower clouds should remain west of the I-95 corridor this morning, with mixing after sunrise likely allowing these lower ceilings to lift by mid-morning at inland locations. Periods of mostly thin cirrus will continue to spill overtop of the ridge and across our area through tonight. Otherwise, west- southwesterly low level flow will delay the development of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to the early to mid afternoon hours at coastal locations. A dry and increasingly subsident atmosphere will allow for dewpoints to potentially fall to around 60 at inland locations this afternoon as filtered sunshine allows temperatures to soar to the mid and upper 90s at inland locations. These values will challenge daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites (see "Climate" section below for details). This dry air mass will keep maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100, with coastal locations more likely to experience "feels-like" temperatures near the century mark as the afternoon sea breeze moves slowly inland, bumping coastal dewpoints back to the upper 60s to around 70 by the mid to late afternoon. This sea breeze will struggle to reach the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon, and its delayed development will yield highs in the lower 90s all the way to area beaches during the early to mid afternoon hours before an onshore breeze drops temperatures back to the upper 80s before sunset. Another round of low stratus and potentially some fog development is expected across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA after midnight, with some potential for eastward expansion of these low stratus ceilings and fog towards sunrise. Light westerly low level winds will otherwise prevail overnight, with lows only falling to the upper 60s inland and around 70 at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will be centered to the southeast Saturday, with ridging extending west across southern FL. A cold front will drop into central GA Saturday afternoon. This pattern will then linger through Sunday night. The real question this period will be whether the front sinks far enough to be a focus for convection into SE GA. A few weak upper waves pass along the frontal zone during the period, which could cause the boundary to waiver a bit from north to south, otherwise there is not much support to push boundary into forecast area. So, at this point precipitation chances will be kept on the low side this period over SE GA, and NE FL will be kept dry. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages throughout this period. With dewpoints largely in the 60s throughout this time frame, heat will not make it to advisory levels. With the prevailing flow from the west southwest between the ridge and the front, the heat will make it all the way to the beaches, with little, if any afternoon push inland of the east coast sea breeze. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The high pressure ridge will lift to the north into central FL Monday into Tuesday, with frontal boundary also moving further to the north. A ridge will be in place at 500mb. Subsidence under these two ridges and moisture still on the low side will provide dry weather for the start of the week. The ridge will move away to the southeast Tuesday night, as an upper trough digs into the southeastern US, and a cold front moves into southeastern US. Long term models have timing differences in the cold frontal passage, but in general looking at the Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon time frame. Too early to determine potential strength of storms on the frontal passage, but indications are that there will be a fairly significant thermal boundary with it, suggesting it could be a strong passage. Temperatures will continue above average throughout this period. Thursday would start a trend toward lower readings. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 08Z. Low stratus ceilings and fog are expected to advect across the Suwannee Valley towards the GNV and VQQ terminals after 08Z, with enough confidence in this scenario to indicate prevailing MVFR visibilities at VQQ towards 09Z and at GNV towards 11Z. We left TEMPO groups for LIFR conditions at VQQ through around 12Z and for IFR conditions at GNV through around 13Z. Fog and low stratus could approach JAX after sunrise, but confidence was too low to indicate sub-VFR conditions at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 14Z. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained around 5 knots at the inland terminals overnight and 5-10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop near the coastal terminals towards 18Z, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly at SGJ and south-southeasterly at SSI, where sustained speeds will increase to around 10 knots. The sea breeze may push inland to CRG towards 22Z, where winds will become south-southeasterly briefly before sunset. West-southwesterly surface winds will otherwise increase to around 10 knots by 19Z at the rest of the inland terminals, followed by speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 06Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis across the Florida peninsula through the weekend and early next week, keeping a prevailing offshore wind flow in place across our local waters. The afternoon sea breeze will shift winds to south and southeasterly for the near shore waters through around sunset, with winds shifting to southerly during the evening hours. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. A weakening frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states late this weekend, but this front will stall to the north of the Georgia waters. An isolated late afternoon or evening thunderstorm is possible over the Georgia waters on Sunday. The next significant frontal boundary will move across our local waters by late Wednesday or Thursday, possibly accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights should keep the risk low through at least midweek next week. Afternoon sea breezes will increase surf heights somewhat, but a weak easterly ocean swell will not raise the risk appreciably. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures through Tuesday at our designated climate sites: Fri 5/16 Sat 5/17 Sun 5/18 Mon 5/19 Tues 5/20 -------------------------------------------------- Jacksonville 96/1995 96/1995 96/1899 97/1960 99/1962 Gainesville 98/1896 96/1915 97/1930 99/1899 97/1938 Alma, GA 95/1990 94/2001 95/2001 97/1960 99/1962 Craig Airport 94/1994 93/2001 93/2001 92/2006 97/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 92 71 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 97 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 93 70 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 94 67 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 92 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1230696 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 16.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 152 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 08Z. Low stratus ceilings and fog are expected to advect across the Suwannee Valley towards the GNV and VQQ terminals after 08Z, with enough confidence in this scenario to indicate prevailing MVFR visibilities at VQQ towards 09Z and at GNV towards 11Z. We left TEMPO groups for LIFR conditions at VQQ through around 12Z and for IFR conditions at GNV through around 13Z. Fog and low stratus could approach JAX after sunrise, but confidence was too low to indicate sub-VFR conditions at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 14Z. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained around 5 knots at the inland terminals overnight and 5-10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop near the coastal terminals towards 18Z, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly at SGJ and south-southeasterly at SSI, where sustained speeds will increase to around 10 knots. The sea breeze may push inland to CRG towards 22Z, where winds will become south-southeasterly briefly before sunset. West-southwesterly surface winds will otherwise increase to around 10 knots by 19Z at the rest of the inland terminals, followed by speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 06Z Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Tonight: High pressure ridge axis will remain locked in at the surface with a dry westerly steering flow in the low levels of the atmosphere, while high pressure ridge also builds in from the West across the SE US states. There are some high clouds pushing over the top of this "dirty" ridge and expect enough to call for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, but these clouds will remain fairly thin and will not prevent temps from falling into the mid/upper 60s over inland areas, along with some patchy fog around sunrise Friday morning, with the HREF still supporting some locally dense fog along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL between 4am-8am Friday morning. Otherwise milder along the Atlantic Coastal areas, with lows in the lower/middle 70s. Friday...No changes in the local weather pattern as dry and hot westerly flow will continue with ridge aloft suppressing any afternoon convection as PWATs remain only around 1 inch, while the near breezy westerly flow at 10-15G20-25 mph will keep the East Coast sea breeze pinned at the Atlantic coast allowing for the hot temps to push all the way to east with near record highs generally in the middle 90s inland, but some upper 90s possible along the I-95 corridor, especially in the urban centers with peak heat indices nudging just over 100F for the first time this year. Rainfall chances remain around 10 percent or less in this pattern. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday Night through Saturday night) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 It`ll be hot and dry on Saturday across the area as high pressure sits overhead. With west/southwest winds, high temperatures will reach the 90s area-wide, including at the immediate Atlantic coast. Heat indices will not be much higher than actual temperatures given drier air in place, but they will approach the upper 90s to near 100 in the afternoon. Mild low temperatures are forecast Friday and Saturday nights, only falling into the mid 60s to low 70s. With calm winds overnight, patchy fog is likely for inland northeast Florida, with locally dense fog possible near the I-75 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Above average temperatures with highs in the 90s continue through Wednesday, with mainly dry conditions. A front will sink southward and lay across central Georgia on Sunday, before lifting back northward on Monday. Isolated showers and storms will be possible across southeast Georgia on Sunday as the front sits nearby, but chances are only at about 15-20% at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 No headlines expected as high pressure ridge axis remains south of the local waters over the next 5 days, while a weak frontal boundary will stall well north of the waters over the SE US states into the Carolinas. This will continue a mostly offshore West to Southwest flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft, with a daily Southeast to South sea breeze development along the NE FL/SE GE coast each afternoon and evening. A few of the evening nocturnal southerly surges may come close to 15-20 knots going into the weekend, but not enough to warrant any headlines with this afternoon`s forecast package. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Risk into the weekend as surf/breakers remain in the 1-2 ft range along with a pinned East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic Coast each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, with minRH falling into the 30-35% range Friday. Near record temperatures and occasionally breezy southwest to west winds expected into the weekend. Dispersion will be good on Friday, with high dispersion levels Saturday, especially for Southeast GA. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites... THU 5/15...JAX 97/1967...CRG 91/1991...GNV 97/1985...AMG 94/1990 FRI 5/16...JAX 96/1995...CRG 94/1994...GNV 98/1896...AMG 95/1990 SAT 5/17...JAX 96/1995...CRG 93/2001...GNV 96/1915...AMG 94/2001 SUN 5/18...JAX 96/1899...CRG 93/2001...GNV 97/1930...AMG 95/2001 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 68 93 70 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 90 71 93 74 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 97 67 97 70 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 95 69 96 70 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 95 66 95 67 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 94 66 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
