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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1225151 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 01.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 153 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (This afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon...Low clouds continue to disperse and temps will warm into the 80s, this combined with low level moisture south of the stalled frontal boundary across NE FL and interaction with the Atlantic sea breeze is still expected to lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of the I-10 corridor, but best chances will be along the I-95 corridor south of JAX to St. Augustine and Palm Coast. An isolated strong storm with gusty winds/small hail cannot be ruled out. Tonight...Isolated showers/storms still possible along the I-95 corridor of NE FL through the evening hours, but will fade after sunset, with a shift toward isolated shower/storm potential into the Atlantic Coastal waters and coastal SE GA counties as the old frontal boundary begins to lift northward during the overnight hours. The abundant low level moisture will lead to another night of low stratus and patchy/areas of fog, with some potential of localized dense fog along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL and across inland SE GA, along with some potential for sea fog along the Atlantic Coastal counties as dew points remain on the higher side. Low temps will continue to remain well above normal in the mid/upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast to envelop the area, with an upper level ridge in place through the period. The high pressure ridging brings winds out of the southeast, allowing the sea-breeze to make its way inland each afternoon. High daytime temperatures are going to be unseasonably warm, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland Wednesday and predominately in the low 90s Thursday. The sea-breeze will help keep temperatures cooler during the day along the coast. Overnight, temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 60s with temperatures staying slightly warmer along the coast. Patchy fog will be possible each morning at inland locations. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft continue into the weekend bringing strong subsidence and heat to the area. Temperatures will be above seasonal average with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday and into the weekend with lows in the 60s. Going into next week, a cold front looks to make its way into the area from the northwest. This should cool down those daytime highs back to near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Wide range of changes expected at TAF sites over the next 24 hours as frontal boundary across the region lifts back to the north as a warm frontal boundary tonight. Shower activity and MVFR CIGS possible at NE FL TAF sites the rest of this afternoon along with an East Coast sea breeze pushing inland shifting low level winds. The sea breeze will fade this evening, but will also bring low clouds and sea fog onshore with LIFR/IFR conds expected as early as sunset along the coastal TAF sites and developing at the rest of the inland TAF sites through the rest of the evening and overnight hours. These low conds will remain intact at all TAF sites through sunrise before improving conds in the 14-16z time frame back to MVFR with increasing SE winds to 10-14 knots with gusts to 17-21 knots by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 No headlines expected early in the period as frontal boundary over the local waters this afternoon will lift north of the waters as a warm front tonight and winds become Southeast Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure ridge settles in north of the waters. Wind speeds generally close to 15 knots and seas 3-5 ft and should remain below headline levels. High pressure ridge settles closer to the local waters Friday and Saturday and south winds increase slightly to at least 15-20 knots and SCEC headlines are expected along with some potential for SCA flags as seas build to 5-7 ft over the offshore waters. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips will continue in the southeast flow through Thursday. Surf/Breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 88 66 88 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 65 78 67 79 / 20 10 0 0 JAX 66 85 68 88 / 20 10 0 0 SGJ 67 82 68 83 / 30 10 0 0 GNV 66 92 67 91 / 10 10 0 10 OCF 66 92 68 91 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225145 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 01.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 136 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 807 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Dense fog has become a bit more widespread around sunrise across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor of NE FL from JAX westward and have posted a Dense Fog Advisory through 10 am. Otherwise forecast is on track for low chances of convection along the stalled frontal boundary today before it starts to lift back northward as a warm frontal boundary tonight. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front will move southeast to near the GA/FL line this morning. The boundary will then stall this afternoon, and lift back north across the area Tonight as a warm front. A few showers ahead of the front are expected across NE FL this morning. Patchy fog is also expected this morning, mainly inland. Showers with embedded storms are forecast to develop along the north central FL coast this afternoon, due to combination of sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability. This activity will dissipate this evening with loss of heating. Showers are anticipated along the warm front Tonight. Highs Today will range from around 80 at the coast, to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Tonight in the middle 60s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A warming trend ensues this period with mostly dry weather less a passing shower mainly across the Golden Isles of SE GA early Wednesday morning near the lifting warm front. Southerly steering flow prevails around the western periphery the 1000-500 mb ridge center that migrates east of the FL peninsula Wed to east of the GA/SC Atlantic coast into Thursday, and although a stray diurnally enhanced shower is possible each day, rain chances are < 10% as deep layer subsidence builds across the region with an unseasonably strong 592-593 dam 500 mb ridge building from the Atlantic toward the FL peninsula. Inland high temperatures will rise well above normal values into the lower 90s while a relatively strong east coast sea breeze keeps coastal locales cooler with highs in the lower 80s with gusty afternoon winds of 20-25 mph. Please refer to the climate section below for more details, but note that our official climate sites have not hit 90 degrees since late Sept and early Oct of 2024. Mild and quiet overnight conditions are expected with lows in the 60s and patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The heat continues Friday through Sunday with strong subsidence in place, with the hotter temperatures shifting gradually toward the eastern tier of the forecast area into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts gradually farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs are expected each day. Late Sunday into Monday the next frontal system approaches with showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area ahead of a cold front Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. A cool down expected next week trailing the frontal passage as high pressure builds WNW of the region and funnels drier air across the area with inland lows falling into the 40s and 50s Monday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Wide range of changes expected at TAF sites over the next 24 hours as frontal boundary across the region lifts back to the north as a warm frontal boundary tonight. Shower activity and MVFR CIGS possible at NE FL TAF sites the rest of this afternoon along with an East Coast sea breeze pushing inland shifting low level winds. The sea breeze will fade this evening, but will also bring low clouds and sea fog onshore with LIFR/IFR conds expected as early as sunset along the coastal TAF sites and developing at the rest of the inland TAF sites through the rest of the evening and overnight hours. These low conds will remain intact at all TAF sites through sunrise before improving conds in the 14-16z time frame back to MVFR with increasing SE winds to 10-14 knots with gusts to 17-21 knots by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A cold front will move southeast into area waters this morning, then lift back to the north as a warm front Tonight. High pressure will build to the northeast Wednesday through Thursday. The high will become centered to the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move toward the southeast Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High inland dispersions and gusty ESE winds Wednesday due to elevated transport winds and warm high temperatures near 90. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 63 87 66 / 0 10 10 0 SSI 79 65 78 67 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 87 65 87 67 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 84 66 82 67 / 30 20 10 0 GNV 87 64 92 67 / 30 10 10 0 OCF 87 66 92 67 / 20 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225126 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 809 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 807 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Dense fog has become a bit more widespread around sunrise across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor of NE FL from JAX westward and have posted a Dense Fog Advisory through 10 am. Otherwise forecast is on track for low chances of convection along the stalled frontal boundary today before it starts to lift back northward as a warm frontal boundary tonight. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front will move southeast to near the GA/FL line this morning. The boundary will then stall this afternoon, and lift back north across the area Tonight as a warm front. A few showers ahead of the front are expected across NE FL this morning. Patchy fog is also expected this morning, mainly inland. Showers with embedded storms are forecast to develop along the north central FL coast this afternoon, due to combination of sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability. This activity will dissipate this evening with loss of heating. Showers are anticipated along the warm front Tonight. Highs Today will range from around 80 at the coast, to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Tonight in the middle 60s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A warming trend ensues this period with mostly dry weather less a passing shower mainly across the Golden Isles of SE GA early Wednesday morning near the lifting warm front. Southerly steering flow prevails around the western periphery the 1000-500 mb ridge center that migrates east of the FL peninsula Wed to east of the GA/SC Atlantic coast into Thursday, and although a stray diurnally enhanced shower is possible each day, rain chances are < 10% as deep layer subsidence builds across the region with an unseasonably strong 592-593 dam 500 mb ridge building from the Atlantic toward the FL peninsula. Inland high temperatures will rise well above normal values into the lower 90s while a relatively strong east coast sea breeze keeps coastal locales cooler with highs in the lower 80s with gusty afternoon winds of 20-25 mph. Please refer to the climate section below for more details, but note that our official climate sites have not hit 90 degrees since late Sept and early Oct of 2024. Mild and quiet overnight conditions are expected with lows in the 60s and patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The heat continues Friday through Sunday with strong subsidence in place, with the hotter temperatures shifting gradually toward the eastern tier of the forecast area into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts gradually farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs are expected each day. Late Sunday into Monday the next frontal system approaches with showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area ahead of a cold front Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. A cool down expected next week trailing the frontal passage as high pressure builds WNW of the region and funnels drier air across the area with inland lows falling into the 40s and 50s Monday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Low stratus and fog will be slow to lift this morning. A trend toward VFR is forecast for later this morning. A few showers will be possible early this morning at KGNV and KSGJ. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across north central FL this afternoon. KGNV and KSGJ would have the greatest chance to be affected by these storms. At this time the potential is too low to mention in area TAF sites. Low stratus is expected to develop along the coast late this afternoon possibly affecting KSGJ, then spread inland affecting the rest of area TAF sites Tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A cold front will move southeast into area waters this morning, then lift back to the north as a warm front Tonight. High pressure will build to the northeast Wednesday through Thursday. The high will become centered to the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move toward the southeast Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High inland dispersions and gusty ESE winds Wednesday due to elevated transport winds and warm high temperatures near 90. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 63 87 66 / 0 20 10 0 SSI 79 65 78 67 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 87 65 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 SGJ 84 66 82 67 / 20 20 10 0 GNV 87 64 92 67 / 30 10 10 0 OCF 87 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-120-220-225-322-422-425-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225112 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 646 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front will move southeast to near the GA/FL line this morning. The boundary will then stall this afternoon, and lift back north across the area Tonight as a warm front. A few showers ahead of the front are expected across NE FL this morning. Patchy fog is also expected this morning, mainly inland. Showers with embedded storms are forecast to develop along the north central FL coast this afternoon, due to combination of sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability. This activity will dissipate this evening with loss of heating. Showers are anticipated along the warm front Tonight. Highs Today will range from around 80 at the coast, to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Tonight in the middle 60s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A warming trend ensues this period with mostly dry weather less a passing shower mainly across the Golden Isles of SE GA early Wednesday morning near the lifting warm front. Southerly steering flow prevails around the western periphery the 1000-500 mb ridge center that migrates east of the FL peninsula Wed to east of the GA/SC Atlantic coast into Thursday, and although a stray diurnally enhanced shower is possible each day, rain chances are < 10% as deep layer subsidence builds across the region with an unseasonably strong 592-593 dam 500 mb ridge building from the Atlantic toward the FL peninsula. Inland high temperatures will rise well above normal values into the lower 90s while a relatively strong east coast sea breeze keeps coastal locales cooler with highs in the lower 80s with gusty afternoon winds of 20-25 mph. Please refer to the climate section below for more details, but note that our official climate sites have not hit 90 degrees since late Sept and early Oct of 2024. Mild and quiet overnight conditions are expected with lows in the 60s and patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The heat continues Friday through Sunday with strong subsidence in place, with the hotter temperatures shifting gradually toward the eastern tier of the forecast area into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts gradually farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs are expected each day. Late Sunday into Monday the next frontal system approaches with showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area ahead of a cold front Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. A cool down expected next week trailing the frontal passage as high pressure builds WNW of the region and funnels drier air across the area with inland lows falling into the 40s and 50s Monday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Low stratus and fog will be slow to lift this morning. A trend toward VFR is forecast for later this morning. A few showers will be possible early this morning at KGNV and KSGJ. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across north central FL this afternoon. KGNV and KSGJ would have the greatest chance to be affected by these storms. At this time the potential is too low to mention in area TAF sites. Low stratus is expected to develop along the coast late this afternoon possibly affecting KSGJ, then spread inland affecting the rest of area TAF sites Tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A cold front will move southeast into area waters this morning, then lift back to the north as a warm front Tonight. High pressure will build to the northeast Wednesday through Thursday. The high will become centered to the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move toward the southeast Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High inland dispersions and gusty ESE winds Wednesday due to elevated transport winds and warm high temperatures near 90. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 63 87 66 / 0 20 10 0 SSI 79 65 78 67 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 87 65 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 SGJ 84 66 82 67 / 20 20 10 0 GNV 87 64 92 67 / 30 10 10 0 OCF 87 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225095 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... ...EARLY APRIL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK WITH DAILY NEAR RECORD HIGHS... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front will move southeast to near the GA/FL line this morning. The boundary will then stall this afternoon, and lift back north across the area Tonight as a warm front. A few showers ahead of the front are expected across NE FL this morning. Patchy fog is also expected this morning, mainly inland. Showers with embedded storms are forecast to develop along the north central FL coast this afternoon, due to combination of sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability. This activity will dissipate this evening with loss of heating. Showers are anticipated along the warm front Tonight. Highs Today will range from around 80 at the coast, to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Tonight in the middle 60s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A warming trend ensues this period with mostly dry weather less a passing shower mainly across the Golden Isles of SE GA early Wednesday morning near the lifting warm front. Southerly steering flow prevails around the western periphery the 1000-500 mb ridge center that migrates east of the FL peninsula Wed to east of the GA/SC Atlantic coast into Thursday, and although a stray diurnally enhanced shower is possible each day, rain chances are < 10% as deep layer subsidence builds across the region with an unseasonably strong 592-593 dam 500 mb ridge building from the Atlantic toward the FL peninsula. Inland high temperatures will rise well above normal values into the lower 90s while a relatively strong east coast sea breeze keeps coastal locales cooler with highs in the lower 80s with gusty afternoon winds of 20-25 mph. Please refer to the climate section below for more details, but note that our official climate sites have not hit 90 degrees since late Sept and early Oct of 2024. Mild and quiet overnight conditions are expected with lows in the 60s and patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The heat continues Friday through Sunday with strong subsidence in place, with the hotter temperatures shifting gradually toward the eastern tier of the forecast area into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts gradually farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs are expected each day. Late Sunday into Monday the next frontal system approaches with showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area ahead of a cold front Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. A cool down expected next week trailing the frontal passage as high pressure builds WNW of the region and funnels drier air across the area with inland lows falling into the 40s and 50s Monday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Restrictions in low stratus and fog expected overnight through the mid morning hours Today. A trend toward VFR is forecast for later this morning, which will then continue as VFR through the afternoon and evening. A few showers will be possible early this morning at KGNV. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across north central FL this afternoon. KGNV and KSGJ would have the greatest chance to be affected by these storms. At this time the potential is too low to mention in area TAF sites though. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A cold front will move southeast into area waters this morning, then lift back to the north as a warm front Tonight. High pressure will build to the northeast Wednesday through Thursday. The high will become centered to the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move toward the southeast Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High inland dispersions and gusty ESE winds Wednesday due to elevated transport winds and warm high temperatures near 90. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 63 87 66 / 0 20 10 0 SSI 79 65 78 67 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 87 65 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 SGJ 84 66 82 67 / 20 20 10 0 GNV 87 64 92 67 / 30 10 10 0 OCF 87 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225092 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 244 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... ...EARLY APRIL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK WITH DAILY NEAR RECORD HIGHS... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front will move southeast to near the GA/FL line this morning. The boundary will then stall this afternoon, and lift back north across the area Tonight as a warm front. A few showers ahead of the front are expected across NE FL this morning. Patchy fog is also expected this morning, mainly inland. Showers with embedded storms are forecast to develop along the north central FL coast this afternoon, due to combination of sea breeze convergence and diurnal instability. This activity will dissipate this evening with loss of heating. Showers are anticipated along the warm front Tonight. Highs Today will range from around 80 at the coast, to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows Tonight in the middle 60s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A warming trend ensues this period with mostly dry weather less a passing shower mainly across the Golden Isles of SE GA early Wednesday morning near the lifting warm front. Southerly steering flow prevails around the western periphery the 1000-500 mb ridge center that migrates east of the FL peninsula Wed to east of the GA/SC Atlantic coast into Thursday, and although a stray diurnally enhanced shower is possible each day, rain chances are < 10% as deep layer subsidence builds across the region with an unseasonably strong 592-593 dam 500 mb ridge building from the Atlantic toward the FL peninsula. Inland high temperatures will rise well above normal values into the lower 90s while a relatively strong east coast sea breeze keeps coastal locales cooler with highs in the lower 80s with gusty afternoon winds of 20-25 mph. Please refer to the climate section below for more details, but note that our official climate sites have not hit 90 degrees since late Sept and early Oct of 2024. Mild and quiet overnight conditions are expected with lows in the 60s and patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The heat continues Friday through Sunday with strong subsidence in place, with the hotter temperatures shifting gradually toward the eastern tier of the forecast area into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts gradually farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs are expected each day. Late Sunday into Monday the next frontal system approaches with showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area ahead of a cold front Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. A cool down expected next week trailing the frontal passage as high pressure builds WNW of the region and funnels drier air across the area with inland lows falling into the 40s and 50s Monday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Restrictions in low stratus and fog expected overnight through the mid morning hours Today. A trend toward VFR is forecast for later this morning, which will then continue as VFR through the afternoon and evening. A few showers will be possible early this morning at KGNV. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across north central FL this afternoon. KGNV and KSGJ would have the greatest chance to be affected by these storms. At this time the potential is too low to mention in area TAF sites though. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A cold front will move southeast into area waters this morning, then lift back to the north as a warm front Tonight. High pressure will build to the northeast Wednesday through Thursday. The high will become centered to the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move toward the southeast Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High inland dispersions and gusty ESE winds Wednesday due to elevated transport winds and warm high temperatures near 90. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/24/34/44/54/6 AMG8890909090 20171967196320231967 JAX9089909190 20122017201120171947 CRG9090889187 20122006201220172022 GNV9291919090 20172017197420232023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 63 87 66 / 0 20 10 0 SSI 79 65 78 67 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 87 65 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 SGJ 84 66 82 67 / 20 20 10 0 GNV 87 64 92 67 / 30 10 10 0 OCF 87 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225079 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 115 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Showers and storms have diminished quickly this evening and all watches are cancelled for the potential for severe storms. Rest of the night we anticipate a low chance of showers or even a thunderstorm, but again chances remain low. Occasional patchy fog is forecast tonight, with visibility that may be down to 2 miles or less at time late tonight. Main updates will be to refine the POPs and weather. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Starting to see some showers popping up in southeast Georgia as this pre-frontal squall line approaches the area. The main line of storms will make its way into the area around 3-4pm this afternoon beginning in southeast Georgia, trailing into northeast Florida`s Suwannee Valley. The highest risk for severe storms will be over Southeast Georgia but could still see some strong isolated thunderstorms along and north of the I-10 corridor and the Suwannee Valley before this line of convection starts to break apart. Daytime highs will get in the low to mid 80s over southeast Georgia with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s over northeast Florida. Overnight, chances for showers and a few thunderstorms continue as the front moves south through southeast Georgia into tomorrow morning. Temperatures will dip into the low to mid 60s, staying slightly warmer along the coast with patchy fog possible mainly south of SR-20 in the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances continue on Tuesday as the front lifts northward, with the highest rain chances being at 30% over northeast Florida. A strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over north central Florida Tuesday morning through the afternoon. High temperatures will climb into the 80s everywhere except coastal southeast Georgia which will stay in the upper 70s. Wednesday will be even hotter as sky cover clears and southerly winds shift to southeasterly. Mild low temperatures are forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with lows in the 60s to near 70 on the coast and St. Johns river basin. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The main concern during this period will be hot temperatures, well above normal as southerly winds and clear skies continue. Inland high temps will reach the lower 90s Thursday through the weekend, with coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. For reference, average high temps this time of year are in the upper 70s. High pressure dominating will keep the area dry until a cold front approaches Sunday, bringing shower and isolated thunderstorm chances beginning in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Restrictions in low stratus and fog expected overnight through the mid morning hours Today. A trend toward VFR is forecast for later this morning, which will then continue as VFR through the afternoon and evening. A few showers will be possible early this morning at KGNV. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across north central FL this afternoon. KGNV and KSGJ would have the greatest chance to be affected by these storms. At this time the potential is too low to mention in area TAF sites though. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 High pressure will extend across south Florida as a weakening pre- frontal squall line approaches from the west today. Showers and thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon and into the early evening across the southeast Georgia waters. Precipitation will decrease in coverage and intensity tonight as the front begins to stall across north Florida. Tuesday the front will lift back north as a warm front, then high pressure builds northward from south Florida Wednesday and positions northeast of the local waters through the end of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues at NE FL and SE GA beaches on Tuesday, with a possible high risk Wednesday for NE FL beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Drier air will be in place Tuesday through the rest of the week following the cold front passage, although minRH will remain above critical values. Southwest winds will be fairly calm Tuesday with good dispersion expected, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over northeast Florida. Winds will shift to southeasterly Wednesday and increase, resulting in high daytime dispersion values for all inland locations, and elevated dispersion overnight near the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 62 87 66 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 77 64 78 68 / 20 10 0 0 JAX 84 65 86 68 / 20 10 0 0 SGJ 82 65 82 68 / 30 10 10 10 GNV 85 64 91 67 / 30 0 10 0 OCF 86 66 91 68 / 20 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
