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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1181053 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 PM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 201 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Rest of this afternoon/evening...Breezy northeast flow will continue scattered showers along the NE FL Atlantic Coastal counties with isolated thunderstorm potential over inland NE FL during peak heating into the middle 80s, but overall rainfall and storm threat remains on the low side and will quickly fade around sunset. Tonight...As Northeast flow weakens slowly, this will allow for skies to clear over inland areas with with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Mostly skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure near the Mid Atlantic Coast will continue to wedge ridging southwestward across most of the region Tuesday, as a very slow moving upper low lingers well offshore. This will continue an onshore flow pattern for Tuesday, and therefore another round of isolated to scattered showers moving onshore. Since the low will nudge further east compared to today, expecting chances for showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder to be confined to areas furthest south and east. Though a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out as far north as coastal southeast GA. High temps will remain below average towards the coast in the low to mid 80s, as inland areas moderate to the mid to upper 80s. Onshore flow drops off overnight Tuesday with lows closer to normal expected, generally low to mid 60s and closer to 70 by the coast. The aforementioned upper low continues to pinwheel further offshore Wednesday and Wednesday Night as high pressure ridging starts to build more aloft in addition to surface ridging, therefore expecting this period to remain dry. Cannot fully rule out an isolated shower to pop up diurnally over inland northeast FL during the afternoon and evening given some lingering onshore flow and low level moisture. However, given the subsidence in place, chances for this will be very low (around 10% or less). Highs start to moderate closer to normal on Wednesday, in the upper 80s to low 90s except for near the coast. MAinly clear and dry into Wednesday Night as well with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Not much change to the pattern for Thursday and into Friday as high pressure ridging persists and high temps continue to moderate towards near to slightly above normal. A shortwave trough moves across the area on Friday Night and Saturday, which returns chances for showers and thunderstorms, though does not look like a significant event at this time. Surface high pressure moves offshore late this weekend as a more zonal pattern aloft also looks to take shape, with a more seabreeze shower/t`storm type of pattern likely. Temps are expected to remain slightly above normal for the start of Memorial Day weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A few brief MVFR CIGS leftover at NE FL TAF sites until the 19-21Z time frame as isolated showers (VCSH) continue, but will fade quickly in the 21-24Z time frame towards sunset with conds becoming VFR at all TAF sites with decreasing NE winds and skies becoming mostly clear. Cooler overnight lows in the 60s inland will support some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ/GNV around sunrise, otherwise expect some brief MVFR CIGS at coastal TAF sites during the mid-late morning diurnal heating hours as NE winds slowly increase in the 13-16Z time frame, but might be too early to introduce with this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Brisk northeasterly flow continues through this evening as high pressure ridging continues to build in. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through 8 PM. This flow regime will weaken Tuesday, with persistent high pressure ridging persisting through mid to late week thereafter. Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rip currents expected the rest of Today and into Tuesday as gusty onshore flow continues through tonight and slowly subsides on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 80 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 83 67 87 / 0 20 0 10 SGJ 67 83 70 85 / 10 30 0 10 GNV 62 86 65 90 / 0 30 0 10 OCF 63 88 67 91 / 0 30 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1181041 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1247 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surge of North to Northeast winds behind cool frontal passage along the SE GA/NE FL coastal areas slightly stronger than expected and local buoys already have sustained winds close to 20 knots and seas already at 5-6 feet, so have posted Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters and have posted High Rip Current Risk as well ending this evening as the NE Flow slowly fades tonight. Otherwise remainder of forecast on track with scattered showers along the NE FL coastal counties which are expected to spread inland through the afternoon hours to the I-75 corridor near GNV/OCF vicinity. A slight chance of a thunderstorm to pop-up with this activity, but storm chances remain around 10% or less and severe weather is not expected. Max temps cooler than over the weekend with highs in the lower 80s near the coast/I-95 corridor and into the middle 80s over inland areas as the current mostly cloudy skies become partly sunny by the mid-late afternoon. Breezy coastal conditions will continue today at 15-20G25-30 mph with lesser NE winds inland at 10-15G20 mph at times. Rainfall chances end at sunset over inland areas, with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Clearing skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A few brief MVFR CIGS leftover at NE FL TAF sites until the 19-21Z time frame as isolated showers (VCSH) continue, but will fade quickly in the 21-24Z time frame towards sunset with conds becoming VFR at all TAF sites with decreasing NE winds and skies becoming mostly clear. Cooler overnight lows in the 60s inland will support some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ/GNV around sunrise, otherwise expect some brief MVFR CIGS at coastal TAF sites during the mid-late morning diurnal heating hours as NE winds slowly increase in the 13-16Z time frame, but might be too early to introduce with this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 78 69 79 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 81 64 83 67 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 81 67 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 84 62 87 64 / 40 0 40 0 OCF 87 63 89 67 / 30 0 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1181031 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 913 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surge of North to Northeast winds behind cool frontal passage along the SE GA/NE FL coastal areas slightly stronger than expected and local buoys already have sustained winds close to 20 knots and seas already at 5-6 feet, so have posted Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters and have posted High Rip Current Risk as well ending this evening as the NE Flow slowly fades tonight. Otherwise remainder of forecast on track with scattered showers along the NE FL coastal counties which are expected to spread inland through the afternoon hours to the I-75 corridor near GNV/OCF vicinity. A slight chance of a thunderstorm to pop-up with this activity, but storm chances remain around 10% or less and severe weather is not expected. Max temps cooler than over the weekend with highs in the lower 80s near the coast/I-95 corridor and into the middle 80s over inland areas as the current mostly cloudy skies become partly sunny by the mid-late afternoon. Breezy coastal conditions will continue today at 15-20G25-30 mph with lesser NE winds inland at 10-15G20 mph at times. Rainfall chances end at sunset over inland areas, with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Clearing skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings will begin to lift through 14Z inland, then along the coast by 18Z. High pressure builds to the north as the low moves slowly away to the east northeast through tonight. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will turn northeasterly and become breezy later this morning as the high builds down the east coast 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area while mainly dry at SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX and CRG by 18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 61 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 78 69 80 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 81 64 83 67 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 80 68 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 84 62 86 64 / 40 0 40 0 OCF 87 63 87 67 / 30 0 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1181011 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 635 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings will begin to lift through 14Z inland, then along the coast by 18Z. High pressure builds to the north as the low moves slowly away to the east northeast through tonight. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will turn northeasterly and become breezy later this morning as the high builds down the east coast 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area while mainly dry at SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX and CRG by 18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 63 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 81 70 80 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 82 65 83 67 / 20 10 20 0 SGJ 82 69 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 85 63 86 64 / 30 0 40 0 OCF 86 64 87 67 / 20 10 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180995 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 321 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings are sinking south along the coast from SSI to the duval county TAF sites and should sink towards SGJ over the next hour, but remain northeast of GNV as weak high pressure builds to the north as the low to the northeast shifts east of the South Carolina coast. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will become more northeasterly towards 10Z and breezy at SSI through sunrise as the high builds down the east coast with continued MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR ceilings for most sites except GNV through 13Z with MVFR ceilings rising to 2.5 kft through 15-17Z along the coast while lifting to VFR inland after 13Z. Monday will feature breezy conditions 10-15 knots with gusts with higher gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area, limiting shower development for SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX/CRG by 17Z/18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 63 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 81 70 80 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 82 65 83 67 / 20 10 20 0 SGJ 82 69 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 85 63 86 64 / 30 0 40 0 OCF 86 64 87 67 / 20 10 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180985 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 157 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Outflow boundary that originated in SE GA has pushed into NE FL extending from coastal Duval County through the northern Suwannee Valley this early evening. The outflow will continue to push southward this evening with surface cool front lagging behind north of the Altamaha River Basin. Most residual and isolated convection remains along and ahead of the outflow boundary. The cool front is expected to push through most of the forecast region during the overnight hours. The convection mainly be isolated to widely scattered over north central FL the remaining daylight hours, become isolated during the mid to late evening. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Line of showers and storms are currently skirting the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA along the cold front. Showers and storms will begin to develop across SE GA and eventually towards NE FL once the cold front begins to meander south during the late afternoon. Main concern for any storms which do develop will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, as DCAPE values hover around the 1000 J/kg range. Activity will shift towards the coast during the early evening hours. Isolated Coastal showers will linger through the overnight hours over the SE GA coast, with some activity possible during the pre-dawn morning hours along the coast in NE FL. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for inland locations, with coastal locations hovering near the 70 mark. Current forecast has these trends well in hand with only minor and subtle changes to the POPS to mirror the forecast convective chances over the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Winds will die down in the evening hours, with skies becoming mostly clear inland. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60`s staying in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Tuesday, weather will be similar to monday just a bit drier, causing lower chances of 20-40% for storms and precipitation for NE FL in the morning and afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure continues to build into the area Wednesday with an upper level ridge moving in from the west. Expect mostly clear skies for the rest of the week, becoming partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Models show the next best chance for rain will be over the weekend in the afternoon and evening high pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.hours as PWAT values increase to 1.5"+ and an upper level trough moves into the area. Temperatures will slowly climb into the 90s by Thursday and stay through the weekend with overnight temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings are sinking south along the coast from SSI to the duval county TAF sites and should sink towards SGJ over the next hour, but remain northeast of GNV as weak high pressure builds to the north as the low to the northeast shifts east of the South Carolina coast. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will become more northeasterly towards 10Z and breezy at SSI through sunrise as the high builds down the east coast with continued MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR ceilings for most sites except GNV through 13Z with MVFR ceilings rising to 2.5 kft through 15-17Z along the coast while lifting to VFR inland after 13Z. Monday will feature breezy conditions 10-15 knots with gusts with higher gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area, limiting shower development for SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX/CRG by 17Z/18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 A slow moving cold front will continue to drift southward over the coastal waters through the afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the coming hours into the evening. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Breezy flow from the north- northeast overnight into Monday behind the cold front. Wind speeds will be near small craft advisory levels over the southeast Georgia waters Monday morning. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week. Rip Currents:Low risk of Rip Currents for the remainder of the day for all area beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for NE FL and SE GA beaches Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 63 87 63 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 80 70 81 69 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 81 66 84 65 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 81 69 82 70 / 30 10 30 10 GNV 83 62 86 64 / 50 0 40 0 OCF 86 65 87 67 / 50 0 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180960 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 806 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Outflow boundary that originated in SE GA has pushed into NE FL extending from coastal Duval County through the northern Suwannee Valley this early evening. The outflow will continue to push southward this evening with surface cool front lagging behind north of the Altamaha River Basin. Most residual and isolated convection remains along and ahead of the outflow boundary. The cool front is expected to push through most of the forecast region during the overnight hours. The convection mainly be isolated to widely scattered over north central FL the remaining daylight hours, become isolated during the mid to late evening. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Line of showers and storms are currently skirting the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA along the cold front. Showers and storms will begin to develop across SE GA and eventually towards NE FL once the cold front begins to meander south during the late afternoon. Main concern for any storms which do develop will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, as DCAPE values hover around the 1000 J/kg range. Activity will shift towards the coast during the early evening hours. Isolated Coastal showers will linger through the overnight hours over the SE GA coast, with some activity possible during the pre-dawn morning hours along the coast in NE FL. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for inland locations, with coastal locations hovering near the 70 mark. Current forecast has these trends well in hand with only minor and subtle changes to the POPS to mirror the forecast convective chances over the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Winds will die down in the evening hours, with skies becoming mostly clear inland. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60`s staying in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Tuesday, weather will be similar to monday just a bit drier, causing lower chances of 20-40% for storms and precipitation for NE FL in the morning and afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure continues to build into the area Wednesday with an upper level ridge moving in from the west. Expect mostly clear skies for the rest of the week, becoming partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Models show the next best chance for rain will be over the weekend in the afternoon and evening high pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.hours as PWAT values increase to 1.5"+ and an upper level trough moves into the area. Temperatures will slowly climb into the 90s by Thursday and stay through the weekend with overnight temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Outflow boundary is moving from I-10 corridor to north central FL the next hour with possible VCTS near KGNV thru 01z. The rest of the evening VFR conditions will persist with a northerly to northeasterly flow. Through the remaining daylight hours winds will be out of the north-northeast at 8 to 11 knots with some higher gusts after the passage of the outflow. After sundown, winds will become northeast at 4 to 6 knots through the nocturnal hours, with northeasterly winds picking up at 10 to 15 knots after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected the rest of the evening and overnight hours. VCSH cannot be ruled out for KSSI during around sunrise and for coastal NE FL terminals after sunrise tomorrow with a shower or two moving inland from the adjacent Atlantic. Higher confidence in VCTS across First Coast terminals after 17Z with sea breeze making its way inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 A slow moving cold front will continue to drift southward over the coastal waters through the afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the coming hours into the evening. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Breezy flow from the north- northeast overnight into Monday behind the cold front. Wind speeds will be near small craft advisory levels over the southeast Georgia waters Monday morning. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week. Rip Currents:Low risk of Rip Currents for the remainder of the day for all area beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for NE FL and SE GA beaches Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 65 84 63 / 80 10 10 0 SSI 86 69 80 70 / 60 20 10 0 JAX 89 67 81 66 / 30 20 30 0 SGJ 89 68 81 69 / 40 30 30 10 GNV 87 67 83 62 / 20 10 50 0 OCF 87 68 86 65 / 20 10 50 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
