Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Atlantic has a 30% chance of something resembling a TC late this week. EPAC remains on fire.
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1236593 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 01.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 137 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Moist Southwest flow ahead of approaching frontal boundary across the SE US will continue to kick off scattered to numerous showers and storms over inland areas early this afternoon that will track towards the East-Northeast and merge with the East Coast sea breeze late this afternoon which will only push into the I-95 corridor this afternoon. PWATs around 2 inches will lead to heavy rainfall as the main threat from storms today, mainly across urban areas, while some stronger storms will be possible with gusty winds as the sea breeze fronts merger along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Convection is expected to push into the Atlantic by sunset with just a few isolated showers possible through the overnight hours in the moist airmass. More organized showers/storms will develop in the low level convergence over the NE Gulf/FL Big Bend region late tonight and towards sunrise, some of which could push will likely push into inland NE FL/I-75 corridor, usually in a weakening manner, although still could see some heavy downpours at times. Min Temps tonight will fall into the lower to middle 70s inland and in the upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast/beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Atlantic high pressure ridging retreats as a weak front shifts southward into the SE US on Wednesday before stalling over SE GA by Thursday night. The moist airmass (PWATs 2+ in.) remains over the region continuing the wet and stormy pattern. With SW flow, convection will start in the NE Gulf around sunrise and shift onshore into the I-75 corridor by mid-morning. With the dominant Gulf coast sea breeze, the sea breeze merger will likely be along the I-95 corridor each afternoon/evening. Stronger storms will be mainly focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Due to the juicy airmass, storms could produce heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding, especially for urban and poor drainage areas. Convection wanes in the evenings with the loss of daytime heating and shifts offshore into the Atlantic. Highs will be around seasonable in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the FL/GA border into the weekend, with diurnal showers and storms each day. Drier air behind the front could potentially limit convection across SE GA while the deep tropical moisture remains ahead of the front in NE FL. Best chances for rain will be focused in NE FL along the weakening frontal boundary and along the sea breezes. However, an area of low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary this weekend. Models are still in disagreement on where the low may form which will greatly influence our rain chances for the weekend, especially given the drier air to the north. NHC has highlighted our area with a low (30%) chance of this low pressure system gaining tropical or subtropical characteristics. We will continue to monitor this system. Regardless if the low develops, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the main hazards. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Scattered to numerous showers have started to break out area-wide with TEMPO for TSRA activity still on track this afternoon at all TAF sites, mainly in the 18-22Z time frame, but possibly slightly later at SGJ as the drier airmass aloft has kept rainfall to the NW of the station as well. Southwest flow have increased to 10G15 knots at inland TAF sites, while becoming south at 12g18 knots at SSI/SGJ/CRG this afternoon. Winds and rainfall chances start to fade quickly around 00Z with just mid/high clouds expected through the overnight hours as SW winds remain elevated to prevent any fog formation, although some MVFR stratus is expected to develop around sunrise in the 1500-2500 ft range and will trend in this direction with the next TAF package, along with re-introducing some VCSH by the 15-18Z time frame as well with the moist airmass and diurnal heating towards the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical low pressure development along this front late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: Southerly winds will create long-shore currents today and build surf to 2 to 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate Risk continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as offshore winds increase Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 89 71 92 / 40 70 30 50 SSI 76 88 75 89 / 30 80 50 60 JAX 73 91 73 91 / 20 80 50 80 SGJ 73 90 74 89 / 30 90 50 90 GNV 72 89 71 89 / 20 80 40 90 OCF 71 88 74 86 / 30 80 50 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236586 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 01.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1229 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 849 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast on track as southwest steering flow ahead of approaching frontal boundary will help to develop scattered to numerous storms along the Gulf Coast sea breeze that will track NE across inland areas of NE FL and meet up with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze that will only push inland to the I-95 corridor this afternoon. With PWATs still close to 2 inches, expect heavy rainfall to be the primary threat from storm activity, but a few strong storms with gusty winds will still remain possible with the sea breeze mergers along the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Convection should push off the Atlantic Coast this evening, with abundant clouds and the threat of continued showers/isolated storms through the overnight hours across inland NE FL/I-75 corridor as SW flow will continue to push some activity inland, especially towards sunrise on Wednesday. Max Temps will likely only reach the upper 80s across inland NE FL today, and around 90F elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM...through Tonight)... Current radar imagery depicts shallow showers pushing in from the Gulf and may make it all the way to the Atlantic coast as a vort lobe rotates from east to west around an upper low centered to the southwest. Heavier showers may push into the Suwannee Valley but that activity isn`t expected to stay intact as it pushes Northeastward through the remaining predawn hours. Through tonight, the aforementioned compact weak upper low located over the eastern Gulf will begin to phase with the broader northern stream trough as it digs into the southeastern US. As this occurs, it will help push an unseasonable cool front toward the region. In response to the approaching surface front, moist southwesterly flow will increase and deepen over the next 24 hours, continuing the feed a Gulf-sourced moisture across NE FL + SE GA. Owing to the increased steering flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned right at the coast today. Somewhat of a rinse-and-repeat pattern today with storms initiating along the Big Bend and then pushing Northeastward and merging with the Atlantic sea breeze near the immediate coast. There will be "likely" chances (or numerous) storms this afternoon and have PoPs ranging from about 50-70%. With the higher-end of that coverage along the sea breeze merger and across SE GA. Although deep moisture is progged to be a bit less today, the main threat will be localized flooding once again today. Increasing winds aloft and sufficient near-surface lapse rates may aid in convective wind gust production but meager lapse-rates aloft will be a limiting factor. By sunset, convection will have exited offshore and to the north for the most part and anything lingering will fade quickly. Increasing moisture will lead to mostly cloudy skies overnight with southwesterly flow perhaps pushing a few showers out of the Gulf and into the Suwannee Valley through the predawn hours. Today`s highs will trend near normal or slightly below for inland areas that cloud up early in the day with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Tonight lows will be a bit warmer due to a bit of wind and increasing cloud cover with reading in the low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night) Moist southwesterly flow will be in place over the forecast area on Wednesday as a dry air front presses in from out of the northwest and then starts to stall over southeast Georgia on Thursday. On Wednesday, numerous to widespread showers and storms will develop through the day with the highest for strong storms will occur over eastern counties of the forecast area and near the I-95 corridor. Convection will become more inhibited over southeast Georgia on Thursday following the frontal passage with a higher likelihood of storms ahead of the frontal boundary. PWAT values ahead of the fropa will range largely between 2 and 2.4 inches, resulting in very moist conditions with storms capable of producing heavy amounts of rainfall. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will rise into the 80s and lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) The frontal boundary will remain stalled over southeast Georgia through Friday, with diurnal showers and storms developing more heavily for areas ahead of the frontal boundary. Forecast models continue to have an area of low pressure develop along the stalled front over the weekend, however, models still differ on where the low pressure system may form. It is too early to determine whether this low will develop tropical characteristics, or what local impacts may be. At minimum expect the daily diurnal thunderstorm chances to continue, with convergence associated with lingering frontal zone increasing coverage.Temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend are expected to be near the seasonal average with warmer high temperatures anticipated behind the frontal boundary, over southeast Georgia. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Scattered to numerous showers have started to break out area-wide with TEMPO for TSRA activity still on track this afternoon at all TAF sites, mainly in the 18-22Z time frame, but possibly slightly later at SGJ as the drier airmass aloft has kept rainfall to the NW of the station as well. Southwest flow have increased to 10G15 knots at inland TAF sites, while becoming south at 12g18 knots at SSI/SGJ/CRG this afternoon. Winds and rainfall chances start to fade quickly around 00Z with just mid/high clouds expected through the overnight hours as SW winds remain elevated to prevent any fog formation, although some MVFR stratus is expected to develop around sunrise in the 1500-2500 ft range and will trend in this direction with the next TAF package, along with re-introducing some VCSH by the 15-18Z time frame as well with the moist airmass and diurnal heating towards the end of the period. && .MARINE...Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical low pressure development along this front late this week and into the upcoming weekend. RIP CURRENTS: Southerly winds will create longshore currents today and build surf to around 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate Risk continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as offshore winds increase Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 72 87 71 / 70 40 80 20 SSI 87 76 88 75 / 50 30 80 40 JAX 91 73 91 73 / 70 20 90 40 SGJ 90 73 90 74 / 60 20 80 40 GNV 89 72 89 72 / 70 20 80 40 OCF 89 72 87 74 / 70 20 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236580 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:09 AM 01.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 856 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 849 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast on track as southwest steering flow ahead of approaching frontal boundary will help to develop scattered to numerous storms along the Gulf Coast sea breeze that will track NE across inland areas of NE FL and meet up with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze that will only push inland to the I-95 corridor this afternoon. With PWATs still close to 2 inches, expect heavy rainfall to be the primary threat from storm activity, but a few strong storms with gusty winds will still remain possible with the sea breeze mergers along the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Convection should push off the Atlantic Coast this evening, with abundant clouds and the threat of continued showers/isolated storms through the overnight hours across inland NE FL/I-75 corridor as SW flow will continue to push some activity inland, especially towards sunrise on Wednesday. Max Temps will likely only reach the upper 80s across inland NE FL today, and around 90F elsewhere. && .NEAR TERM...through Tonight)... Current radar imagery depicts shallow showers pushing in from the Gulf and may make it all the way to the Atlantic coast as a vort lobe rotates from east to west around an upper low centered to the southwest. Heavier showers may push into the Suwannee Valley but that activity isn`t expected to stay intact as it pushes Northeastward through the remaining predawn hours. Through tonight, the aforementioned compact weak upper low located over the eastern Gulf will begin to phase with the broader northern stream trough as it digs into the southeastern US. As this occurs, it will help push an unseasonable cool front toward the region. In response to the approaching surface front, moist southwesterly flow will increase and deepen over the next 24 hours, continuing the feed a Gulf-sourced moisture across NE FL + SE GA. Owing to the increased steering flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned right at the coast today. Somewhat of a rinse-and-repeat pattern today with storms initiating along the Big Bend and then pushing Northeastward and merging with the Atlantic sea breeze near the immediate coast. There will be "likely" chances (or numerous) storms this afternoon and have PoPs ranging from about 50-70%. With the higher-end of that coverage along the sea breeze merger and across SE GA. Although deep moisture is progged to be a bit less today, the main threat will be localized flooding once again today. Increasing winds aloft and sufficient near-surface lapse rates may aid in convective wind gust production but meager lapse-rates aloft will be a limiting factor. By sunset, convection will have exited offshore and to the north for the most part and anything lingering will fade quickly. Increasing moisture will lead to mostly cloudy skies overnight with southwesterly flow perhaps pushing a few showers out of the Gulf and into the Suwannee Valley through the predawn hours. Today`s highs will trend near normal or slightly below for inland areas that cloud up early in the day with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Tonight lows will be a bit warmer due to a bit of wind and increasing cloud cover with reading in the low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night) Moist southwesterly flow will be in place over the forecast area on Wednesday as a dry air front presses in from out of the northwest and then starts to stall over southeast Georgia on Thursday. On Wednesday, numerous to widespread showers and storms will develop through the day with the highest for strong storms will occur over eastern counties of the forecast area and near the I-95 corridor. Convection will become more inhibited over southeast Georgia on Thursday following the frontal passage with a higher likelihood of storms ahead of the frontal boundary. PWAT values ahead of the fropa will range largely between 2 and 2.4 inches, resulting in very moist conditions with storms capable of producing heavy amounts of rainfall. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will rise into the 80s and lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) The frontal boundary will remain stalled over southeast Georgia through Friday, with diurnal showers and storms developing more heavily for areas ahead of the frontal boundary. Forecast models continue to have an area of low pressure develop along the stalled front over the weekend, however, models still differ on where the low pressure system may form. It is too early to determine whether this low will develop tropical characteristics, or what local impacts may be. At minimum expect the daily diurnal thunderstorm chances to continue, with convergence associated with lingering frontal zone increasing coverage.Temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend are expected to be near the seasonal average with warmer high temperatures anticipated behind the frontal boundary, over southeast Georgia. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR at the TAF sites early this morning around sunrise, but with diurnal heating and some low level moisture this morning, there will be some low chances for MVFR Cu development in the 1500 to 2500 ft range, but chances remain too low for BKN CIGS at this time and will continue to just mention SCT clouds for now at the TAF sites. Early start to convection expected late this morning over inland NE FL and will place TEMPO at GNV from 17-21Z time frame for MVFR TSRA chances, from 18-22Z at VQQ and 19-23Z at the remainder of the Coastal TAF sites as a weak sea breeze develops and pushes only inland to the I-95 corridor where storm mergers will occur this afternoon with some gusty winds possible. Generally VFR after sunset through Tuesday Night with abundant mid and high clouds with low fog chances and while a random shower will be possible at any time in the moist airmass, will leave out for now, but may need to include at GNV in future TAF forecasts. && .MARINE...Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical low pressure development along this front late this week and into the upcoming weekend. RIP CURRENTS: Southerly winds will create longshore currents today and build surf to around 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate Risk continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as offshore winds increase Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 72 87 71 / 60 40 80 20 SSI 87 76 88 75 / 50 30 80 40 JAX 91 73 91 73 / 60 30 90 40 SGJ 90 73 90 74 / 60 30 80 40 GNV 89 72 89 72 / 70 30 80 40 OCF 89 72 87 74 / 70 30 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236564 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 01.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 651 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM...through Tonight)... Current radar imagery depicts shallow showers pushing in from the Gulf and may make it all the way to the Atlantic coast as a vort lobe rotates from east to west around an upper low centered to the southwest. Heavier showers may push into the Suwannee Valley but that activity isn`t expected to stay intact as it pushes Northeastward through the remaining predawn hours. Through tonight, the aforementioned compact weak upper low located over the eastern Gulf will begin to phase with the broader northern stream trough as it digs into the southeastern US. As this occurs, it will help push an unseasonable cool front toward the region. In response to the approaching surface front, moist southwesterly flow will increase and deepen over the next 24 hours, continuing the feed a Gulf-sourced moisture across NE FL + SE GA. Owing to the increased steering flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned right at the coast today. Somewhat of a rinse-and-repeat pattern today with storms initiating along the Big Bend and then pushing Northeastward and merging with the Atlantic sea breeze near the immediate coast. There will be "likely" chances (or numerous) storms this afternoon and have PoPs ranging from about 50-70%. With the higher-end of that coverage along the sea breeze merger and across SE GA. Although deep moisture is progged to be a bit less today, the main threat will be localized flooding once again today. Increasing winds aloft and sufficient near-surface lapse rates may aid in convective wind gust production but meager lapse-rates aloft will be a limiting factor. By sunset, convection will have exited offshore and to the north for the most part and anything lingering will fade quickly. Increasing moisture will lead to mostly cloudy skies overnight with southwesterly flow perhaps pushing a few showers out of the Gulf and into the Suwannee Valley through the predawn hours. Today`s highs will trend near normal or slightly below for inland areas that cloud up early in the day with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Tonight lows will be a bit warmer due to a bit of wind and increasing cloud cover with reading in the low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night) Moist southwesterly flow will be in place over the forecast area on Wednesday as a dry air front presses in from out of the northwest and then starts to stall over southeast Georgia on Thursday. On Wednesday, numerous to widespread showers and storms will develop through the day with the highest for strong storms will occur over eastern counties of the forecast area and near the I-95 corridor. Convection will become more inhibited over southeast Georgia on Thursday following the frontal passage with a higher likelihood of storms ahead of the frontal boundary. PWAT values ahead of the fropa will range largely between 2 and 2.4 inches, resulting in very moist conditions with storms capable of producing heavy amounts of rainfall. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will rise into the 80s and lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) The frontal boundary will remain stalled over southeast Georgia through Friday, with diurnal showers and storms developing more heavily for areas ahead of the frontal boundary. Forecast models continue to have an area of low pressure develop along the stalled front over the weekend, however, models still differ on where the low pressure system may form. It is too early to determine whether this low will develop tropical characteristics, or what local impacts may be. At minimum expect the daily diurnal thunderstorm chances to continue, with convergence associated with lingering frontal zone increasing coverage.Temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend are expected to be near the seasonal average with warmer high temperatures anticipated behind the frontal boundary, over southeast Georgia. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR at the TAF sites early this morning around sunrise, but with diurnal heating and some low level moisture this morning, there will be some low chances for MVFR Cu development in the 1500 to 2500 ft range, but chances remain too low for BKN CIGS at this time and will continue to just mention SCT clouds for now at the TAF sites. Early start to convection expected late this morning over inland NE FL and will place TEMPO at GNV from 17-21Z time frame for MVFR TSRA chances, from 18-22Z at VQQ and 19-23Z at the remainder of the Coastal TAF sites as a weak sea breeze develops and pushes only inland to the I-95 corridor where storm mergers will occur this afternoon with some gusty winds possible. Generally VFR after sunset through Tuesday Night with abundant mid and high clouds with low fog chances and while a random shower will be possible at any time in the moist airmass, will leave out for now, but may need to include at GNV in future TAF forecasts. && .MARINE...Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical low pressure development along this front late this week and into the upcoming weekend. RIP CURRENTS: Southerly winds will create longshore currents today and build surf to around 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate Risk continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as offshore winds increase Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 72 87 71 / 70 30 80 20 SSI 89 76 88 75 / 60 30 80 40 JAX 92 73 91 73 / 60 30 90 40 SGJ 91 73 90 74 / 60 30 80 40 GNV 89 70 89 72 / 60 20 80 40 OCF 89 73 87 74 / 60 30 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236547 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 01.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 153 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM...through Tonight)... Current radar imagery depicts shallow showers pushing in from the Gulf and may make it all the way to the Atlc coast as a vort lobe rotates from east to west around an upper low centered to the southwest. Heavier showers may push into the Suwannee Valley but that activity isn`t expected to stay intact as it pushes NEward through the remaining predawn hours. Through tonight, the aforementioned compact weak upper low located over the eastern Gulf will begin to phase with the broader northern stream trough as it digs into the southeastern US. As this occurs, it will help push an unseasonable cool front toward the region. In response to the approaching surface front, moist southwesterly flow will increase and deepen over the next 24 hours, continuing the feed a Gulf-sourced moisture across NE FL + SE GA. Owing to the increased steering flow, the Atlc sea breeze will be pinned right at the coast today. Somewhat of a rinse-and-repeat pattern today with storms initiating along the Big Bend and then pushing NEward and merging with the Atlc sea breeze near the immediate coast. There will be "likely" chances (or numerous) storms this afternoon and have PoPs ranging from about 50-70%. With the higher-end of that coverage along the sea breeze merger and across SE GA. Although deep moisture is progged to be a bit less today, the main threat will be localized flooding once again today. Increasing winds aloft and sufficient near-surface lapse rates may aid in convective wind gust production but meager lapse-rates aloft will be a limiting factor. By sunset, convection will have exited offshore and to the north for the most part and anything lingering will fade quickly. Increasing moisture will lead to mostly cloudy skies overnight with southwesterly flow perhaps pushing a few showers out of the Gulf and into the Suwannee Valley through the predawn hours. Today`s highs will trend near normal or slightly below for inland areas that cloud up early in the day with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Tonight lows will be a bit warmer due to a bit of wind and increasing cloud cover with reading in the low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night) Moist southwesterly flow will be in place over the forecast area on Wednesday as a dry air front presses in from out of the northwest and then starts to stall over southeast Georgia on Thursday. On Wednesday, numerous to widespread showers and storms will develop through the day with the highest for strong storms will occur over eastern counties of the forecast area and near the I-95 corridor. Convection will become more inhibited over southeast Georgia on Thursday following the frontal passage with a higher likelihood of storms ahead of the frontal boundary. PWAT values ahead of the fropa will range largely between 2 and 2.4 inches, resulting in very moist conditions with storms capable of producing heavy amounts of rainfall. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will rise into the 80s and lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) The frontal boundary will remain stalled over southeast Georgia through Friday, with diurnal showers and storms developing more heavily for areas ahead of the frontal boundary. Forecast models continue to have an area of low pressure develop along the stalled front over the weekend, however, models still differ on where the low pressure system may form. It is too early to determine whether this low will develop tropical characteristics, or what local impacts may be. At minimum expect the daily diurnal thunderstorm chances to continue, with convergence associated with lingering frontal zone increasing coverage.Temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend are expected to be near the seasonal average with warmer high temperatures anticipated behind the frontal boundary, over southeast Georgia. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)... A batch of light rain moving across the Jax terminal will end by 06z. Outside of KGNV and airfields in the Suwannee Valley, rainfall isn`t expected to return until this afternoon. Low stratus is likely to develop across portions of Georgia this morning but there is low confidence that it will extend toward TAF sites through the rest of the predawn hours thus VFR conditions are forecasted with clouds at or above 3.5 kft. Though a brief period of MVFR cloud cover will be possible during the mid morning as cumulus develops but should lift to VFR cigs by 15z. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again with potentially multiple rounds at KGNV and KSGJ. Prevailing winds will be southwesterly around 10 knots except at KSJG and KSSI where the pinned sea breeze will shift winds SSE to SE. && .MARINE...Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical low pressure development along this front late this week and into the upcoming weekend. RIP CURRENTS: Southerly winds will create longshore currents today and build surf to around 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate Risk continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as offshore winds increase Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 72 87 71 / 70 30 80 20 SSI 89 76 88 75 / 60 30 80 40 JAX 92 73 91 73 / 60 30 90 40 SGJ 91 73 90 74 / 60 30 80 40 GNV 89 70 89 72 / 60 20 80 40 OCF 89 73 87 74 / 60 30 80 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
