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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| No data for this date - Showing most recent prior to 10-10-2025 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 826 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Northeaster Ongoing. Wind Advisories for the Coastal Counties through Early Sunday Morning. Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters this Afternoon through Saturday Night. Highest Water Levels of the Fall Season Expected from Friday through the Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate Tidal Flooding from Fri Morning - Sat Night. Destructive Beach Erosion at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide - Heavy Downpours & Isolated Thunderstorms along the I-95 Corridor. Localized Flooding Possible at Coastal Locations through Friday Night. Widespread 2-3 inch Totals for Coastal Northeast FL with Locally Higher Amounts Possible && .UPDATE... (Rest of Tonight) Issued at 820 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Scattered showers continue across the area with limited instability for thunderstorms, but will keep in slight chances for now during the overnight period. Made some changes to the temps and POPs to reflect current trends, but otherwise not much change. Again included heavy rainfall wording for later tonight when rainfall amounts may increase further. This latter rainfall area is mainly noted to be for coastal northeast FL where the best placement of instability, training bands of showers, and moisture is located. PWATs of about 1.9 inches noted for northeast FL this evening. It would appear that models are having a hard time forecasting rainfall amounts and so confidence in the next 12-24 hours are uncertain given the disparity in model QPF guidance. Still, localized amounts of near 3 inches are possible into Friday morning for areas from Flagler, Putnam, St Johns, and Duval counties. Not seeing a notable increase in winds but sustained winds will be 15-25 mph coastal areas with gusts of about 45 mph, and 10-20 mph inland. Already have seen 40-45 mph gusts at Mayport and around St Augustine. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Nor`easter conditions will continue to ramp up tonight as high pressure continues to wedge down the SE US coastline and produces a tight pressure gradient with the sharpening coastal trough over the Atlantic waters just offshore the NE FL coast. The strong NE flow will produce sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph along the Atlantic Coastal counties, with strongest winds at the beachfront locations and Wind Advisory will remain in effect. Over inland locations breezy NE winds will continue with sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph at times. The low level convergence in the NE flow and mid/upper level lift along with PWATs approaching 2 inches will continue to ramp up rainfall chances with widespread showers and scattered storms for the Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor with locally heavy rainfall, especially where stationary convergent rain bands can set up and while recent rainfall amounts have been sparse, still can`t rule out the need of a short-fuse Flood Watch depending on where the heavy rainfall sets up. Further inland, expect scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms with some heavy downpours but flooding risk is lower over inland areas, since any heavy rainfall that falls along the Atlantic Coastal areas may also see an enhanced flooding risk due to the above normal tidal values during times of high tide, which may also bring about flash flood potential in urban centers through the upcoming weekend. The N-NE flow will bring down some cooler temps over inland areas with lows falling to around 60F over inland SE GA, 65-70F range over inland NE FL/Coastal SE GA, lower 70s along the NE FL coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Strong high pressure will be to the north northeast on Friday, as an area of low pressure develops off the east coast of central FL. With this pattern, winds will remain elevated across the area. The high to the north will weaken Friday night into Saturday, allowing the low pressure area to move north, placing it to the northeast of the region by Saturday afternoon. The low will move up along the Carolina coast Saturday night, with a trough trailing from it into South FL, as a weaker ridge extends inland from high pressure to the north. With this pattern winds will remain elevated and gusty across the area through Saturday, with highs winds along the coast. As the low pulls away, and the high builds Saturday night, inland winds will subside, as the coast still remains gusty. Precipitation chances will be across the whole forecast area on Friday due to the proximity of low pressure, with greatest chances near the coast. These chances will then gradually decrease Friday night through Saturday, as the low tracks away. Temperatures will trend below normal during the days, and near during the nights this period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 As weak high pressure builds across the area Sunday, a trough will extend down the east coast from the low over the northeastern US. Subsidence under the ridge should provide for a mainly clear and dry day Sunday. There could be lingering clouds though along east coast due to the trough. With sunshine expected temperatures will moderate to near normal highs. Weak high pressure ridging will remain in place over region through Monday. A trough extending from northeastern low will move southeast across the area Monday night, but a dry passage is expected. There are some discrepancies in longer term guidance for Wednesday into Thursday, with regards to whether troughing leads to precipitation chances. At this time continuing to trend with drier solution. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Northeaster event continues and will likely intensify through Friday. We expect MVFR vsby/cig to prevail. At this time, some occasional IFR cig/vsby this evening. But, current observations show just a couple of IFR cigs around, but the forecast calls for increased chances of IFR cigs (though not exceptionally high chance) into Friday morning at all the TAF sites. Thus, we indicated TEMPO and PROB30 IFR in convection. When and if the IFR cigs develop Friday morning, they are anticipated to improve for GNV by the aftn, but not necessarily improve for the other sites, where on and off moderate to possibly heavy showers and potential t-storms are expected with moderate confidence of IFR. Sfc winds will remain north- northeast at 12-18 kt with gusts of about 25-30 kt, though GNV will see on the lower end of that range. Don`t think LLWS criteria met at this time, but low level turbulence is highly probable given the gustiness of the winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Northeast winds will continue to strengthen as a coastal trough develops over the near shore waters tonight. Showers and embedded storms will begin to increase in coverage through Friday. Gale Warning will remain posted through Saturday night with frequent gusts to gale force are expected. Low pressure will then develop along the frontal boundary over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to our region on Friday, with this feature gradually strengthening as it moves northward towards the Carolinas this weekend. Strong north-northeasterly winds and building, very rough surf will create dangerous conditions throughout our local waters through early Sunday. Northerly winds will gradually subside late this weekend into early next week, with elevated seas also likely slow to subside across our local waters. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions will ramp upwards through tonight and continue through the upcoming weekend as surf/breakers build into the 7-10 ft range from Friday onward into the weekend. Severe beach erosion is expected during times of high tide through the upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Minor Coastal/Tidal flooding levels are expected through tonight for all NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations and along the St. Johns River Basin as the Northeast flow continue to ramp upwards and will keep Coastal Flood Advisory in place. Will upgrade the Coastal Flood Watch to a Coastal Flood Warning, starting with the late morning high tide cycle on Friday and continuing for each high tide cycle through Saturday Night, and may need to be extended into Sunday, depending on how quickly the winds diminish and shift more offshore late in the weekend. The latest 06Z/12Z PETSS/ETSS guidance still looks a bit too high on the actual peak tidal values of almost 4 feet MHHW on the beachfront and close to 3 feet MHHW on the St. Johns River, but despite the high bias at later time frames, still expect at least Moderate Coastal/Tidal flooding values of close to 3 ft MHHW for NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations (highest since Hurricane Nicole in November 2022) and into the 2.0 to 2.5 ft MHHW range on the St. Johns River Basin (highest since Hurricane Milton from last October). Any heavy rainfall that falls into the St. Johns River Basin during this event will only help exacerbate these values and likely lingering tidal flooding well into next week for the St. Johns River Basin, while the Atlantic beachfront locations should fall back closer to astronomical tidal levels by early next week as the wind flow becomes more offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 60 71 60 77 / 60 40 30 20 SSI 66 74 65 76 / 70 70 70 40 JAX 67 75 65 78 / 70 70 60 40 SGJ 70 78 69 78 / 80 80 70 50 GNV 68 77 64 80 / 40 50 40 20 OCF 70 78 66 79 / 30 50 30 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125- 132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-138-233- 325-333-433-533-633. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. AM...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472- 474. && $$ |
