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| #1252601 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1234 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Morning Dense Fog Potential through Wednesday. Areas of Fog developing around midnight across inland Southeast GA. Dense fog develops later with visibility potentially down to mile into inland - Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday - Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this morning...Light and moist onshore/NE flow has already led to patchy dense fog development from the I-10 corridor across NE FL northward across most of SE GA, and expect the need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for these areas during the overnight hours. Further southward across the rest of NE FL, some mid clouds along the old frontal boundary will keep low levels a bit more stirred up and expect patchy dense fog through sunrise Monday Morning. Low temps still on track for the 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coast. Today...High pressure north of the region will shift towards the Carolinas and expect slow lifting/dissipation of the inland dense fog by the mid/late morning hours, along with increasing East to Northeast winds around 15G20-25 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas, with generally East around 10G15 mph over inland areas. Temps still warm to above normal levels under partly sunny skies, reaching into the lower 80s and near record levels across inland NE FL, and into the upper 70s/near 80F across inland SE GA, while the onshore flow will keep Max temps in the 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The diurnal heating and old frontal boundary across NE FL and into the Atlantic Coastal waters, may be enough to trigger an isolated shower, but overall rainfall chances remain silent around 10 percent or less through this afternoon. Tonight...High pressure over the Carolinas shifts east into the Western Atlantic and this will bring a shift to a southerly steering flow and lifting of old frontal boundary northward as a quasi warm frontal boundary, which will likely trigger some widely scattered showers over the Atlantic Coastal waters as this feature lifts northward, and some of these may brush the Atlantic Coastal areas to the east of the I-95 corridor. Further inland, increased low level moisture will lead to another night with areas of dense fog by the overnight hours and dense fog advisories may be required once again. Low temps generally in the mid/upper 50s over inland areas and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday, high pressure will exit away to the northeast and a warm front will lift north of the area. Winds will become southeasterly near the coast and southerly inland while a storm system to the northwest stays north of the area. Warmer conditions will bump our highs in the low 80s over SE GA and the low to mid 80s over NE FL with upper 70s along the immediate coast. Tuesday night, the first upper shortwave will exit to the Northeast states with a more potent shortwave trough driving ESE across the upper Midwest, serving to deepen a large trough across the central US. A strong cold front under this upper feature will move quickly eastward through the deep south states into Wednesday morning. Moist south to southwest flow off the Gulf waters will allow for patchy fog to develop over NE FL areas. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s inland, low 60s over far western counties, and low to mid 60s over the coast/St Johns river. Wednesday, the deep trough will continue to shift into the eastern half of the country as the strong shortwave over the Great Lakes becomes negatively tilted. As it does so, it will help drive the strong cold front, in terms of temperature gradient, ESE through the area. The strongest mid to upper level support and broad scale lift will shift north of the region and limit storm chances to isolated coverage over NW portions of SE GA. Overall rainfall amounts will be under a quarter of an inch as the system will move quickly through the area and convergence along the front weakening. Warm conditions will remain before the cold front arrives as good mixing boosts highs to near record levels (see climate section) in the mid 80s over NE FL and upper 70s/low 80s over SE GA with near 80 reading along the coast. Wednesday night, westerly winds will turn northwesterly as strong high pressure builds southeastward from the upper plains. Lows will tumble into the low 40s over inland SE GA and the mid to upper 40s along I-10 into the Suwannee Valley with 50s along the NE FL coast and St Johns river. Winds will create wind chills into the upper 30s over inland zones by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thursday, strong high pressure will build in from the northwest. Brisk NW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph will make for cool conditions despite skies turning sunny by midday over SE GA and the afternoon over NE FL. Cold air advection will limit highs to the low/mid 60s over SE GA and the mid/upper 60s over NE FL. Friday morning will be chilly in the low/mid 30s over inland SE GA and mid/upper 30s over the Suwannee Valley. During the day, the high will build towards the TN/OH Valleys with breezy north winds persisting. Cold air advection will further limit highs to the upper 50s/low 60s over SE GA and the low 60s over most of NE FL which is about 10 degrees below normal. Saturday, another chilly start in the low/mid 30s over SE GA may bring a potential frost, through winds may remain elevated enough to limit frost to more sheltered areas. High pressure will pivot to the central/southern appalachians with a tight local pressure gradient over the area as weak inverted troughing develops over the offshore waters that will shift winds easterly with increasing low level clouds off the Atlantic and the dry airmass eroding in the afternoon. With flow aloft becoming more zonal, highs will warm compared to Friday with mid/upper 60s over SE GA and low 70s returning to NE FL. Sunday, high pressure will shift northeast of the region as a trough deepens over the western US and spurs a developing storm system just east of the Rockies. Ridging aloft across the southeast states will allow highs to warm further into the low/mid 70s over SE GA and the upper 70s over NE FL with easterly winds and low level moisture increasing over the area. Inverted troughing will generate isolated to scattered coastal showers that will move onshore in the afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... The 06Z TAF period will bring developing LIFR conds at JAX/CRG/VQQ and GNV through sunrise, while the onshore flow should keep the most significant fog to the west of the coastal TAF sites of SGJ/SSI and looks like it will mostly be MVFR vsbys at this time. LIFR conds should begin to lift in the 13-14Z time frame with VFR conds developing at all TAF sites with E-NE winds at 8-10 knots. These winds weaken after sunset (23Z) and expect VFR conds through the end of the TAF period, with any shift in focus to fog for Monday Night after the current TAF period. && .MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure system will build north of the region today, resulting in breezy onshore winds. The high builds east of the Atlantic coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The front will press south of the local waters Wednesday night into Thursday, trailed by northwest to north winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday as winds shift to the Northeast. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk developing in the onshore flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY... CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON... After widespread dense fog away from the coast this morning, high pressure will be north of the area today and shift east to the Mid Atlantic coast with northeasterly winds becoming easterly late this morning/midday. The high will move northeast of the region on Tuesday with fog developing inland in the early morning hours as a warm front lifts north across the area during the day and winds become southerly, but no showers expected. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday morning and create breezy southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. Scattered to numerous showers will spread across Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, but will decrease in coverage to the coast with overall precip amounts on the light side. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday. A much drier airmass arrives Thursday and Friday as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest. Very low dewpoints into the 20s inland will create critically low Min RH values over the area Thursday and Friday. Elevated inland winds 10-15 mph gusting to 25- 30 mph will also be close to Red Flag conditions and further forecasts will need to be updated for this potential. Good to high level dispersions expected to end the week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog in place will become widespread through most inland areas with dense fog advisory conditions likely through mid morning before lifting. Areas of Dense fog/will redevelop tonight into early Tuesday morning with patchy fog Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites... MON 11/24 TUE 11/25 WED 11/26 Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 86/2014 85/1992 84/1946 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 84/2014 83/1992 83/2020 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 86/1948 85/1955 84/1973 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 83/1986 83/1986 84/1973 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... AMG 56 81 60 79 / 10 0 10 50 SSI 62 77 62 79 / 20 0 0 10 JAX 60 83 60 85 / 10 0 0 20 SGJ 62 81 62 82 / 20 0 0 10 GNV 58 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 58 83 59 84 / 10 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-035-120-124-125-220-225-236-322-325-340-422-425- 522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
