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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1209020 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1204 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Current forecast was on track with just a bit slower progression of the cold front passing through the forecast area. Have adjusted the sky, and dewpoints to reflect some lingering moisture across the southeast parts of the area. A stray shower possible this evening (mainly over marine waters) along the southeastward-moving cold front, that`s now pushing into Flagler, and into southern parts of Putnam and Marion counties. The front should be south of the area shortly after midnight. Much colder tonight, with lows forecast to drop into the 40s for most areas, with lower 50s along the northeast FL coast and toward southeast-most zones. On the marine forecast, gale warning in effect for gusts of near gale force offshore for a few hours tonight. Rest of the forecast on track for small craft advisories headlines. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Northwest flow tonight will bring in much cooler and drier air, with PWATs dropping below 0.5 inches overnight for northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. There will be about a 30 degree drop from today`s high temperatures to tonight`s lows, most inland locations will see temperatures in the 40s, with the immediate coast and St. Johns river basin area staying in the low 50s. Surface winds will increase behind the cold frontal passage, with northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph gusting higher by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A series of dry frontal passages will push across the region and will maintain a brisk Northwest flow and colder, clear conditions. Breezy Northwest flow at 15-20G30 mph will dominate during the day with 10G15-20 mph winds remaining in place at night. Highs will remain at below normal levels only in the lower to middle 60s and low temps Thursday Night will fall into the upper 30s/near 40 over inland areas and in the 40s along the Atlantic Coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Winds diminish Friday Night as high pressure builds over the region this weekend. Under clear skies and near calm winds both Saturday and Sunday morning are expected to fall into the mid 30s over inland areas and at least patchy frost can be expected around sunrise both days, but too early to determine if coverage will be widespread enough for any Frost Advisory headlines. Max temps will remain below normal in the 60s on Saturday and rebound closer to normal values in the lower 70s on Sunday. High pressure ridge builds south of the area early next week with long range models still differing on the whether the next frontal boundary will stall north of the region by mid-week or pass through as a dry frontal passage on Wednesday. At this point have kept the forecast dry through the long term period as warm up takes place with above normal highs in the 70s returning early next week along with lows in the 40s/50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Skies have cleared as dry air has filled in behind the passing front. VFR conditions will prevail with northwest flow of 10-15 kt, with some gusts of 20-25 kt through tonight. Wind gusts should subside temporarily by sunrise but, start up again by mid morning as daytime mixing develops. Winds will slow to 5-10 kt after sunset through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Exercise caution levels are expected today for the outer waters ahead of an incoming strong cold front that will pass through the water this evening. Behind the front, strong northwesterly winds are forecast along with increasing seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions are in place beginning this evening for the near shore and offshore waters, with gale force winds in the offshore waters north of St. Augustine tonight as well. Winds will decrease slightly Thursday but remain near 20 knots through at least Friday, with seas slowly declining by the end of the week. Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk for the NE FL/SE GA beaches through the end of the week and into the weekend with the offshore flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Strong cold frontal passage is expected this afternoon and evening along with a few isolated showers. Otherwise a much colder and drier airmass will push into the region tonight and remain over the area through the weekend. Northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 25 to 30 mph can be expected both Thursday and Friday afternoons which will combine with near critical humidities to produce elevated fire danger conditions both afternoons along with pockets of high dispersions across the area. Winds will diminish this weekend with dry conditions remaining in place and the near calm winds around sunrise will support lows in the mid/upper 30s over inland areas and patchy frost is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 38 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 64 45 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 65 42 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 66 45 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 65 41 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 66 41 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ474. && $$ |
