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#1260574 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 22.Feb.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1242 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Wind Advisory for Strong Gusts through 6 PM

- Today: Red Flag Warning South of Waycross GA & all of
Northeast FL. Monday: Fire Weather Watch all local counties

- Cold Blast Returns Tonight with Nightly Freezes through Wed
Morning. Tonight: Freeze Warning North of I-10. Monday Night:
Freeze Watch.

- Wind Chills in the 20s Tonight & Monday Morning; Cold Weather
Advisory Issued.

- Gale Warning through Monday Afternoon

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

>> MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:

- Breezy to Gusty Winds through the Afternoon (Wind Advisory)

- Critical Wildfire Danger Today and this Evening

- Freeze for SE GA & inland NE FL north of I-10 Tonight

- Dangerously low wind chill values area-wide Tonight

A powerful arctic cold front, being driven by a low pressure system
that is currently deepening rapidly along the eastern seaboard, has
almost exited the region as of the noon hour. Well to the northwest
of the deepening low, a strong arctic high pressure will begin to
translate southward out of Canada resulting in an intensifying
pressure gradient locally.

That tightly packed gradient will result in persistent breezy-to-
strong winds through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. The
strongest winds are expected through the rest of the afternoon as
low level winds continue to respond to the bomb cyclone to the
northeast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for wind gusts 40-45
mph through the early evening hours. Anticipate gusts continuing
overnight but should lessen to the 20-25 mph range.

Combine the prevailing northwesterly winds and gusts expected
tonight with the incoming arctic chill, it`ll feel like the low 20s
and upper teens across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL late
tonight and Monday morning. This has prompted the issuance of a Cold
Weather Advisory for tonight in addition to the current Freeze
Warning for inland areas north of I-10. Within the freeze warning
area, low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s while
mid 30s are expected else where across NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

>> MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:

- Nightly Freezes & Cold Wind Chills Mon/Tue Mornings

- Wildfire Danger

- Inland Frost Tue Night/Wed Morning

Dry weather with below normal temperatures this period and nightly
freezes.

After a morning freeze and cold wind chills in the 20s Monday
morning, highs will only warm into the upper 40s across SE GA to the
50s across NE FL about 15-20 degrees below average highs for this
time of year. Gusty NNW winds continue Monday with peak gusts of 25-
35 mph, just below wind advisory threshold, as latest REFS-CONUS
model runs has gust potential of 40 mph or more less than 5% for all
areas. Winds weaken into Monday evening as the surface high builds
eastward across the Gulf Coast region. There is high confidence of a
widespread freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning with hard freeze
(temps near 25 degC) inland and a light freeze at the coast, and the
Freeze Watch for this period remains in place. With lows near 25
deg, a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of inland
northeast FL early Tuesday morning. Less wind Tuesday as the high
builds over the area with highs warming into the 50s to near 60, but
still below average. The ridge builds across south FL Tuesday night,
with a brief, light inland freeze possible and areas of frost more
favorable across portions of northeast FL where cloud cover will be
thinner compared to southeast GA. Confidence in a freeze is not as
high Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with cloud cover and
increasing SW boundary layer winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

>> MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:

- Warming Trend Begins Wednesday

- Needed Rain Chances Return Late Thursday and continue into Weekend
with Isolated Thunderstorm Potential

Surface ridge across south FL will bring the best chance of morning
fog across northeast FL Thursday morning with an approaching front
from the west increasing shower chances across southeast GA by
Thursday afternoon. Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms
could impact southeast GA as early as Thursday night, but are more
likely Friday as the front moves southward across the area under
weakening upper level dynamics. Although shear will be present, weak
mid level lapse rates and limited CAPE favor a low risk of severe
storms during this time frame. As upper level forcing lifts
northeast of the region Friday, the surface front begins to stall
across the FL peninsula into the weekend as a short-wave mid level
trough develops across the western Gulf and tracks eastward.
Depending on where the front stalls, this scenario could bring MUCH
needed stratiform rain to portions of the local area. There is also
the risk of more thunderstorm coverage, possibly strong next weekend
as the Gulf short wave trough becomes absorbed into a stronger long
wave eastern CONUS trough into the weekend. There is high confidence
of no freezes during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely at all of the TAF sites through
mid-morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. GNV has
the highest potential for dropping to IFR ceilings for a few hours
in the early morning.

Sunday, VFR levels resume as the front will exit to the southeast
with skies clearing by midday to early afternoon. Northwest winds
will increase from 15 knots gusting to 25 knots in the late morning
to up to 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots through the reminder of
the afternoon as a low strengthens quickly to the northeast and high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

Frequent gusts to gale force will continue through Monday afternoon
between a strong surface low pressure well northeast of the region
and high pressure to the west. Winds and seas begin to subside
Monday night into Tuesday as the surface high builds eastward across
the Gulf Coast states. The high will extend across south Florida
Wednesday as the next front approaches from the west into Thursday.
A low chance of thunderstorms returns by Friday as the front slowly
shifts south across the local waters, likely stalling across the
Florida peninsula into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Red Flag Conditions this afternoon and again Monday from
Waycross Southward

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Today, Monday, And Wednesday

- Elevated nighttime dispersion values and poor humidity
recovery Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for all of northeast
and north central Florida and for portions of southeast Georgia.
Despite some beneficial rainfall last night for areas north of
Waycross, elsewhere the amounts did not reach levels that would
significantly lower the potential to negate the ongoing Red Flag
Warning or the Fire Weather Watch Monday.

A cold, dry arctic airmass plunging southward through the region
this afternoon will result in critically low humidity this afternoon
between 2-6 PM as sustained winds hold around 15 to 20 mph with
gusts peaking around 30-40 mph. Winds will decrease but remain
elevated overnight resulting elevated overnight dispersion and poor
recoveries. On Monday, critically strong winds, low humidity, and
drought stricken fuels will yield a second day of Red Flag
Conditions from the Okefenokee NWR southward through northeast FL.

Winds will relax Tuesday as high pressure develops across FL, but a
long-duration period of low humidity is expected before humidity
trends high Wednesday onward.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A light freeze is expected tonight
for inland locations north of I-10. Expect widespread freezing
temperatures Monday night. Widespread frost and a possible light
freeze are forecast on Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 30 48 26 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 67 33 50 31 / 30 0 0 0
JAX 70 32 53 28 / 30 0 0 0
SGJ 73 35 54 32 / 30 0 0 0
GNV 71 33 55 27 / 30 0 0 0
OCF 73 34 55 26 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
633.
Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-
023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
533-633.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ023-024-120-
124-125-220-225-322-325-425.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for GAZ151-152-
162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for GAZ151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-
452-454.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ470-
472-474.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$
#1260567 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 22.Feb.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
755 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Red Flag Warning this Afternoon & Evening from Waycross, GA
Southward. Frequent Northwesterly Wind Gusts 25-35 MPH, Min Humidity
Values of 20-25%. Fire Weather Watch Area-Wide on Mon Afternoon &
Early Evening

- Freeze Warning North of I-10 Tonight & Low Wind Chills Area-Wide
Early Mon

- Freeze Watches Area-Wide on Mon Night and Early Tues Morning. Cold
Weather Advisories Possible for Northeast and North Central FL. Light
Freeze and Widespread Frost Expected Tues Night and Early Wed Morning

- Gale Warning this Afternoon through Mon Afternoon

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of Our Region

&&

.UPDATE...

KEY CHANGES AND UPDATE MESSAGES:

- Wind Advisory Issued for areas along and north of I-10 today
- Decreased humidity during the afternoon
- Increased overnight wind speeds tonight
- Lowered the minimum Wind Chill values tonight

A powerful arctic blast will follow behind the departing cold front
as its parent low pressure system undergoes rapid intensification
today. As the low deepens, the wind response will strengthen, the
already robust, cold air advection and the corresponding surge of
dry, arctic air into the air through the afternoon and evening.

Before the temperatures begin to plummet, a tightly packed gradient
between the "bombing" surface low and strong arctic high pressure
will lead to strong winds across the area today and tonight. Based
on upstream surface and the 925 mb observed winds, a Wind Advisory
was issued due to the increasing probability of wind gusts around 40-
45 mph for areas along and north of I-10 this morning and afternoon.

Winds will lighten some tonight but breezy winds, with gusts to 20-
25 mph, overnight will lead to dangerously cold wind chill values
tonight as temperatures plunge toward or push below the freezing
mark. A Cold Weather Advisory will be considered with the next
forecast package for all of NE FL and SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS (Monday - Tuesday Night:

- Gusty Northwesterly Winds and Low Humidity Increase the
Wildfire Danger on Monday

- Widespread Freeze & Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Monday Night

- Critically Low Humidity Values at Inland Locations on Tuesday

- Light Freeze Inland with Widespread Frost on Tuesday Night...


Deep troughing positioned over the eastern third of the nation on
Monday will pivot offshore by late Tuesday, with its associated
intense surface cyclone off the New England coast on Monday morning
migrating north-northeastward across Atlantic Canada on Tuesday.
Deep and dry northwesterly flow in the wake of this departing storm
system will remain in place across our region during this time
period.

Despite sunny skies on Monday, strong cold air advection and a tight
pressure gradient will only allow highs to reach the upper 40s to
around 50 for southeast GA and the 50-55 range elsewhere. Dewpoints
plunging through the teens inland and lower 20s at coastal locations
will combine with northwesterly winds sustained at 15-20 mph with
frequent 25-30 mph gusts to create another day of potential Red Flag
conditions, especially for northeast and north central FL.

Weakening Arctic high pressure will pivot eastward along the
northern Gulf coast on Monday night, resulting in a loosening local
pressure gradient that will yield gradually decreasing northwesterly
winds, especially at inland locations. A hard freeze is likely
across inland southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and for inland
locations along the I-10 corridor in northeast FL, with a light
freeze extending to coastal locations. The northwesterly breeze will
drop wind chill values down to the low and mid 20s, likely prompting
Cold Weather Advisories for northeast and north central Florida in
subsequent forecasts later today.

Arctic high pressure will gradually weaken as it settles over the FL
peninsula on Tuesday afternoon and night. Sunny skies and a very dry
air mass will result in highs rebounding to the mid and upper 50s
area-wide on Tuesday. Dewpoints remaining in the teens and 20s will
keep at least an elevated wildfire danger in place across our area
despite decreasing west-northwesterly surface winds, with long
durations of critically low humidity values forecast at all inland
locations.

Although cirrus cloud cover will begin to enter our area from the
northwest on Tuesday evening, decoupling winds early in the evening
will create radiational cooling, with a light freeze expected at
most inland locations and areas to potentially widespread frost
inland and at least patchy frost extending to coastal locations,
where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Hazards During the Long Term Period:

- Warming Trend Begins on Wednesday

- Beneficial Showers and Possibly a Few Storms Late in the Week
through Next Weekend

Flow aloft will quickly transition to zonal by midweek and then
southwesterly on Thursday downstream of a quickly approaching trough
of Pacific origins. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will
continue to weaken as it pushes offshore of the southeast FL coast
by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will quickly moderate on
Wednesday as southwesterly low level flow develops shortly after
sunrise. Inland highs should approach late February climatology,
with values climbing to the upper 60s and lower 70s, while colder
shelf waters keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows on
Wednesday night will remain in the 40s area-wide.

Shower chances will gradually increase downstream of the next
approaching frontal boundary from Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night, mainly for locations north of Interstate 10. A dry
air mass will initially linger across most of northeast and north
central FL on Thursday, with showers possible by late afternoon
across mainly inland southeast GA as PWATs begin to increase. Model
blends currently indicate scattered showers traversing our region on
Thursday night and Friday, with enough instability ahead of an
approaching cold front to possibly develop a few thunderstorms on
Friday afternoon and night. Highs will climb well into the 70s on
Thursday despite increasing cloud cover, with lower 80s possible
across north central FL. Warm air advection should keep lows in the
50s region-wide on Thursday night. Some cool air advection,
widespread cloud cover, and scattered to numerous showers may keep
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s for most of southeast GA, while
highs elsewhere generally reach the 75-80 degree range. Lows on
Friday night will fall back into the 40s for southeast GA in the
wake of the frontal passage, with 50s forecast elsewhere as the
front likely slows its forward progress.

Broad troughing is expected to prevail next weekend over the
southeastern states, keeping chances for scattered showers in the
forecast. Surface ridging will strengthen along the Mid-Atlantic
coast as the frontal boundary potentially stalls over north central
FL, resulting in an onshore wind pattern. Highs will likely remain
in the 70s for most locations on Saturday, with lower 80s possible
for north central FL and upper 60s for coastal southeast GA. Lows
should remain in the 50s throughout our area on Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely at all of the TAF sites through
mid-morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. GNV has
the highest potential for dropping to IFR ceilings for a few hours
in the early morning.

Sunday, VFR levels resume as the front will exit to the southeast
with skies clearing by midday to early afternoon. Northwest winds
will increase from 15 knots gusting to 25 knots in the late morning
to up to 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots through the reminder of
the afternoon as a low strengthens quickly to the northeast and high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...


Northwesterly winds will quickly strengthen in the wake of a frontal
passage on Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions quickly
changing to Gale conditions Sunday afternoon. A Gale Warning is in
effect Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for frequent gusts
to Gale Force as low pressure rapidly strengthens near the Mid-
Atlantic and New England coasts through Monday night. Arctic high
pressure will then build along the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday
and then shift across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday night,
allowing for winds and seas to diminish across our local waters. The
high will move offshore by midweek ahead of another approaching cold
front that should impact our local waters late this week, with south
to southwesterly winds prevailing ahead of the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Red Flag Conditions This Afternoon From Waycross Southward

- Red Flag Conditions Likely On Monday For Portions Of Our Area

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Today, Monday, And Wednesday

- Elevated Nighttime Dispersion Values Tonight

- Long Durations Of Critically Low Humidity On Tuesday Inland

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for all of northeast
and north central Florida and for portions of southeast Georgia.

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will exit our area before
noon, with strong northwesterly surface and transport winds then
overspreading our region late this morning through this afternoon. A
very dry air mass will plunge into our area this afternoon,
resulting in critically low humidity values for locations from
Waycross southward in southeast Georgia and across all of northeast
and north central Florida, where Red Flag Warnings have been issued.
Strong northwesterly transport winds and breezy surface speeds will
continue tonight and Monday, creating Elevated Nighttime Dispersion
values tonight.

A Fire Weather Watch has been maintained throughout our entire
region on Monday, as minimum relative humidity values and soil
moisture levels following Saturday night and Sunday morning`s
rainfall amounts remain in question. Red Flag conditions appear
likely across most of northeast and north central Florida, with an
Elevated Fire Danger likely elsewhere, with high daytime dispersion
values expected at most locations as well. Northwesterly surface and
transport winds will gradually diminish on Monday night and will
shift to westerly on Tuesday. Long durations of critically low
humidity values are forecast at all inland locations on Tuesday,
with fair to good daytime dispersion values expected. Southwesterly
surface and transport winds are forecast to increase on Wednesday,
creating high daytime dispersion values inland, with good values
expected at coastal locations.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A light freeze is expected tonight
for all of inland southeast Georgia and for inland locations along
and north of the Interstate 10 corridor in northeast Florida.
Widespread subfreezing temperatures are forecast area-wide late on
Monday night through early Tuesday morning, with a hard freeze
expected for inland southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley, and for
portions of inland northeast Florida. widespread frost and a
possible light freeze are forecast on Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 30 49 25 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 66 34 50 31 / 40 0 0 0
JAX 70 33 53 28 / 40 0 0 0
SGJ 73 36 54 33 / 50 0 0 0
GNV 70 34 55 27 / 30 0 0 0
OCF 71 34 55 27 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ023-024-120-
124-125-220-225-322-325-425.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for GAZ151-152-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-
452-454.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ470-
472-474.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$
#1260552 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 AM 22.Feb.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
545 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Red Flag Warning this Afternoon and Evening from Waycross and
Blackshear, GA Southward. Frequent Northwesterly Wind Gusts
25-35 MPH and Minimum Humidity Values of 20-25% Expected. Fire
Weather Watch Area-Wide on Monday Afternoon and Early
Evening.

- Freeze Warning North of I-10 Tonight & Low Wind Chills Area-
Wide Early on Monday Morning.

- Freeze Watches Area-Wide on Monday Night and Early Tuesday
Morning. Cold Weather Advisories Possible for Northeast and
North Central FL. Light Freeze and Widespread Frost Expected
Tuesday Night and Early Wednesday Morning.

- Gale Warning this Afternoon through Monday Afternoon.

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of Our Region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Hazards this period:
- Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday for all of Northeast
FL and portions of Southeast GA

- Freeze for southeast Georgia Sunday night & dangerously
low wind chill values area-wide

Rain will continue to move through southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida through the night, with a very low chance of
thunder after midnight. Areas in southeast Georgia have seen
beneficial rainfall, some locations have had over an inch.

The cold front will be south of the forecast area by mid morning
Sunday, by early afternoon all of northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia will be rain-free. Breezy northwesterly winds
(afternoon gusts near 30-35 mph) will prevent any early morning
fog, and will create dangerous fire weather conditions promoting
a Red Flag Warning for much of the area. Sky cover will clear
throughout the day, with a wide range of high temperatures
forecast. Southeast Georgia will be in the upper 50s to 60s,
with northeast Florida in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday night low temperatures will drop just at or below
freezing for most of southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid
to upper 30s elsewhere. Winds will remain too high for frost
development, and will create dangerously low wind chill values
in the 20s area-wide. A Freeze Warning has been issued for
Sunday night across southeast Georgia and portions of northeast
Florida north of I-10. At this time, forecast minimum wind chill
values around sunrise are near 25 degrees for portions of
northeast Florida (Cold Weather Advisory criteria for NE FL is
16-25 degree wind chills), held off on issuing the product, but
this will be reevaluated as confidence increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS:

- Gusty Northwesterly Winds and Low Humidity Increase the
Wildfire Danger on Monday

- Widespread Freeze & Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Monday
Night

- Critically Low Humidity Values at Inland Locations on
Tuesday

- Light Freeze Inland with Widespread Frost on Tuesday Night


Deep troughing positioned over the eastern third of the nation
on Monday will pivot offshore by late Tuesday, with its
associated intense surface cyclone off the New England coast on
Monday morning migrating north-northeastward across Atlantic
Canada on Tuesday. Deep and dry northwesterly flow in the wake
of this departing storm system will remain in place across our
region during this time period.

Despite sunny skies on Monday, strong cold air advection and a
tight pressure gradient will only allow highs to reach the
upper 40s to around 50 for southeast GA and the 50-55 range
elsewhere. Dewpoints plunging through the teens inland and lower
20s at coastal locations will combine with northwesterly winds
sustained at 15-20 mph with frequent 25-30 mph gusts to create
another day of potential Red Flag conditions, especially for
northeast and north central FL.

Weakening Arctic high pressure will pivot eastward along the
northern Gulf coast on Monday night, resulting in a loosening
local pressure gradient that will yield gradually decreasing
northwesterly winds, especially at inland locations. A hard
freeze is likely across inland southeast GA, the Suwannee
Valley, and for inland locations along the I-10 corridor in
northeast FL, with a light freeze extending to coastal
locations. The northwesterly breeze will drop wind chill values
down to the low and mid 20s, likely prompting Cold Weather
Advisories for northeast and north central Florida in subsequent
forecasts later today.

Arctic high pressure will gradually weaken as it settles over
the FL peninsula on Tuesday afternoon and night. Sunny skies
and a very dry air mass will result in highs rebounding to the
mid and upper 50s area-wide on Tuesday. Dewpoints remaining in
the teens and 20s will keep at least an elevated wildfire danger
in place across our area despite decreasing west-northwesterly
surface winds, with long durations of critically low humidity
values forecast at all inland locations.

Although cirrus cloud cover will begin to enter our area from
the northwest on Tuesday evening, decoupling winds early in
the evening will create radiational cooling, with a light freeze
expected at most inland locations and areas to potentially
widespread frost inland and at least patchy frost extending to
coastal locations, where lows will fall to the mid and upper
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Main Hazards During the Long Term Period:

- Warming Trend Begins on Wednesday

- Beneficial Showers and Possibly a Few Storms Late in the
Week through Next Weekend

Flow aloft will quickly transition to zonal by midweek and then
southwesterly on Thursday downstream of a quickly approaching
trough of Pacific origins. At the surface, Arctic high pressure
will continue to weaken as it pushes offshore of the southeast
FL coast by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will quickly
moderate on Wednesday as southwesterly low level flow develops
shortly after sunrise. Inland highs should approach late
February climatology, with values climbing to the upper 60s and
lower 70s, while colder shelf waters keep coastal highs in the
mid to upper 60s. Lows on Wednesday night will remain in the 40s
area-wide.

Shower chances will gradually increase downstream of the next
approaching frontal boundary from Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night, mainly for locations north of Interstate 10. A
dry air mass will initially linger across most of northeast
and north central FL on Thursday, with showers possible by late
afternoon across mainly inland southeast GA as PWATs begin to
increase. Model blends currently indicate scattered showers
traversing our region on Thursday night and Friday, with enough
instability ahead of an approaching cold front to possibly
develop a few thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and night. Highs
will climb well into the 70s on Thursday despite increasing
cloud cover, with lower 80s possible across north central FL.
Warm air advection should keep lows in the 50s region-wide on
Thursday night. Some cool air advection, widespread cloud cover,
and scattered to numerous showers may keep highs in the upper
60s and lower 70s for most of southeast GA, while highs
elsewhere generally reach the 75-80 degree range. Lows on Friday
night will fall back into the 40s for southeast GA in the wake
of the frontal passage, with 50s forecast elsewhere as the front
likely slows its forward progress.

Broad troughing is expected to prevail next weekend over the
southeastern states, keeping chances for scattered showers in
the forecast. Surface ridging will strengthen along the Mid-
Atlantic coast as the frontal boundary potentially stalls over
north central FL, resulting in an onshore wind pattern. Highs
will likely remain in the 70s for most locations on Saturday,
with lower 80s possible for north central FL and upper 60s for
coastal southeast GA. Lows should remain in the 50s throughout
our area on Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Prevailing MVFR ceilings and periods of light to briefly
moderate showers are expected at the regional terminals through
around 15Z, with periods of IFR ceilings around 800-1,000 feet
possible at the northeast FL terminals, mainly before 13Z. VFR
conditions should then prevail at the regional terminals by 17Z.
Westerly surface winds sustained around 10 knots early this
morning will shift to northwesterly by 14Z, with speeds steadily
increasing to 15-20 knots and gusty by 16Z and then 20-25 knots
with frequent 30-35 knot gusts possible towards 18Z. Speeds
should subside to around 15 knots by 00Z, but periodic gusts of
20-25 knots will remain possible overnight through the predawn
hours on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwesterly winds will quickly strengthen in the wake of a
frontal passage on Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions
quickly changing to Gale conditions Sunday afternoon. A Gale
Warning is in effect Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for frequent gusts to Gale Force as low pressure rapidly
strengthens near the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts
through Monday night. Arctic high pressure will then build along
the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday and then shift across the
Florida peninsula on Tuesday night, allowing for winds and seas
to diminish across our local waters. The high will move offshore
by midweek ahead of another approaching cold front that should
impact our local waters late this week, with south to
southwesterly winds prevailing ahead of the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Red Flag Conditions This Afternoon From Waycross and
Blackshear, GA Southward

- Red Flag Conditions Likely On Monday For Portions Of Our Area

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Today, Monday, And Wednesday

- Elevated Nighttime Dispersion Values Tonight

- Long Durations Of Critically Low Humidity On Tuesday Inland

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for all of
northeast and north central Florida and for portions of
southeast Georgia.

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will exit our area
before noon, with strong northwesterly surface and transport
winds then overspreading our region late this morning through
this afternoon. A very dry air mass will plunge into our area
this afternoon, resulting in critically low humidity values for
locations from Waycross southward in southeast Georgia and
across all of northeast and north central Florida, where Red
Flag Warnings have been issued. Strong northwesterly transport
winds and breezy surface speeds will continue tonight and
Monday, creating Elevated Nighttime Dispersion values tonight.

A Fire Weather Watch has been maintained throughout our entire
region on Monday, as minimum relative humidity values and soil
moisture levels following Saturday night and Sunday morning`s
rainfall amounts remain in question. Red Flag conditions appear
likely across most of northeast and north central Florida, with
an Elevated Fire Danger likely elsewhere, with high daytime
dispersion values expected at most locations as well.
Northwesterly surface and transport winds will gradually
diminish on Monday night and will shift to westerly on Tuesday.
Long durations of critically low humidity values are forecast at
all inland locations on Tuesday, with fair to good daytime
dispersion values expected. Southwesterly surface and transport
winds are forecast to increase on Wednesday, creating high
daytime dispersion values inland, with good values expected at
coastal locations.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A light freeze is expected
tonight for all of inland southeast Georgia and for inland
locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor in
northeast Florida. Widespread subfreezing temperatures are
forecast area-wide late on Monday night through early Tuesday
morning, with a hard freeze expected for inland southeast
Georgia, the Suwannee Valley, and for portions of inland
northeast Florida. widespread frost and a possible light freeze
are forecast on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 30 49 25 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 66 34 50 31 / 40 0 0 0
JAX 70 33 53 28 / 40 0 0 0
SGJ 73 36 54 33 / 50 0 0 0
GNV 70 34 55 27 / 30 0 0 0
OCF 71 34 55 27 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for GAZ151-152-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this
afternoon for AMZ450-452-454.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ470-
472-474.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$
#1260528 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 22.Feb.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1247 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Red Flag Warning Sunday Afternoon & Evening for NE FL, Portions of
SE GA. Wind gusts 25-35 MPH, Min RH Values 25-30%. Fire Weather Watch
Area-Wide Monday

- Small Craft Advisory & Gale Warning Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of Our Region

- Freeze Warning Tonight north of I-10. Widespread Freeze & Low
Wind Chill Values Mon Night & Early Tues.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Hazards this period:
- Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday for all of Northeast FL
and portions of Southeast GA

- Freeze north of I-10 Sunday night & dangerously low wind
chill values area-wide

Rain will continue to move through southeast Georgia and northeast
Florida through the night, with a very low chance of thunder after
midnight. Areas in southeast Georgia have seen beneficial rainfall,
some locations have had over an inch of rain.

The cold front will be south of the forecast area by mid morning
Sunday, by early afternoon all of northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia will be rain-free. Breezy northwesterly winds (afternoon
gusts near 30-35 mph) will prevent any early morning fog, and
will create dangerous fire weather conditions promoting a Red
Flag Warning for much of the area. Sky cover will clear
throughout the day, with a wide range of high temperatures
forecast. Southeast Georgia will be in the upper 50s to 60s,
with northeast Florida in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday night low temperatures will drop just at or below freezing
for most of southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid to upper 30s
elsewhere. Winds will remain too high for frost development, and
will create dangerously low wind chill values in the 20s area-wide.
A Freeze Warning has been issued for Sunday night across southeast
Georgia and portions of northeast Florida north of I-10. At this
time, forecast minimum wind chill values around sunrise are near 25
degrees for portions of northeast Florida (Cold Weather Advisory
criteria for NE FL is 16-25 degree wind chills), held off on issuing
the product, but this will be reevaluated today as confidence
increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS:

- Gusty Northwesterly Winds and Low Humidity Increase the
Wildfire Danger on Monday

- Widespread Freeze & Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Monday Night

- Critically Low Humidity Values at Inland Locations on Tuesday

- Light Freeze Inland with Widespread Frost on Tuesday Night


Deep troughing positioned over the eastern third of the nation on
Monday will pivot offshore by late Tuesday, with its associated
intense surface cyclone off the New England coast on Monday morning
migrating north-northeastward across Atlantic Canada on Tuesday.
Deep and dry northwesterly flow in the wake of this departing storm
system will remain in place across our region during this time
period.

Despite sunny skies on Monday, strong cold air advection and a tight
pressure gradient will only allow highs to reach the upper 40s to
around 50 for southeast GA and the 50-55 range elsewhere. Dewpoints
plunging through the teens inland and lower 20s at coastal locations
will combine with northwesterly winds sustained at 15-20 mph with
frequent 25-30 mph gusts to create another day of potential Red Flag
conditions, especially for northeast and north central FL.

Weakening Arctic high pressure will pivot eastward along the
northern Gulf coast on Monday night, resulting in a loosening local
pressure gradient that will yield gradually decreasing northwesterly
winds, especially at inland locations. A hard freeze is likely
across inland southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and for inland
locations along the I-10 corridor in northeast FL, with a light
freeze extending to coastal locations. The northwesterly breeze will
drop wind chill values down to the low and mid 20s, likely prompting
Cold Weather Advisories for northeast and north central Florida in
subsequent forecasts later today.

Arctic high pressure will gradually weaken as it settles over the FL
peninsula on Tuesday afternoon and night. Sunny skies and a very dry
air mass will result in highs rebounding to the mid and upper 50s
area-wide on Tuesday. Dewpoints remaining in the teens and 20s will
keep at least an elevated wildfire danger in place across our area
despite decreasing west-northwesterly surface winds, with long
durations of critically low humidity values forecast at all inland
locations.

Although cirrus cloud cover will begin to enter our area from the
northwest on Tuesday evening, decoupling winds early in the evening
will create radiational cooling, with a light freeze expected at
most inland locations and areas to potentially widespread frost
inland and at least patchy frost extending to coastal locations,
where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Hazards During the Long Term Period:

- Warming Trend Begins on Wednesday

- Beneficial Showers and Possibly a Few Storms Late in the Week
through Next Weekend

Flow aloft will quickly transition to zonal by midweek and then
southwesterly on Thursday downstream of a quickly approaching trough
of Pacific origins. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will
continue to weaken as it pushes offshore of the southeast FL coast
by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will quickly moderate on
Wednesday as southwesterly low level flow develops shortly after
sunrise. Inland highs should approach late February climatology,
with values climbing to the upper 60s and lower 70s, while colder
shelf waters keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows on
Wednesday night will remain in the 40s area-wide.

Shower chances will gradually increase downstream of the next
approaching frontal boundary from Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night, mainly for locations north of Interstate 10. A dry
air mass will initially linger across most of northeast and north
central FL on Thursday, with showers possible by late afternoon
across mainly inland southeast GA as PWATs begin to increase. Model
blends currently indicate scattered showers traversing our region on
Thursday night and Friday, with enough instability ahead of an
approaching cold front to possibly develop a few thunderstorms on
Friday afternoon and night. Highs will climb well into the 70s on
Thursday despite increasing cloud cover, with lower 80s possible
across north central FL. Warm air advection should keep lows in the
50s region-wide on Thursday night. Some cool air advection,
widespread cloud cover, and scattered to numerous showers may keep
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s for most of southeast GA, while
highs elsewhere generally reach the 75-80 degree range. Lows on
Friday night will fall back into the 40s for southeast GA in the
wake of the frontal passage, with 50s forecast elsewhere as the
front likely slows its forward progress.

Broad troughing is expected to prevail next weekend over the
southeastern states, keeping chances for scattered showers in the
forecast. Surface ridging will strengthen along the Mid-Atlantic
coast as the frontal boundary potentially stalls over north central
FL, resulting in an onshore wind pattern. Highs will likely remain
in the 70s for most locations on Saturday, with lower 80s possible
for north central FL and upper 60s for coastal southeast GA. Lows
should remain in the 50s throughout our area on Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely at all of the TAF sites through
mid-morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. GNV has
the highest potential for dropping to IFR ceilings for a few hours
in the early morning.

Sunday, VFR levels resume as the front will exit to the southeast
with skies clearing by midday to early afternoon. Northwest winds
will increase from 15 knots gusting to 25 knots in the late morning
to up to 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots through the reminder of
the afternoon as a low strengthens quickly to the northeast and high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwesterly winds will quickly strengthen in the wake of a
frontal passage on Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions
quickly changing to Gale conditions Sunday afternoon. A Gale
Warning is in effect Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for frequent gusts to Gale Force as low pressure rapidly
strengthens near the Mid- Atlantic and New England coasts
through Monday night. Arctic high pressure will then build along
the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday and then shift across the
Florida peninsula on Tuesday night, allowing for winds and seas
to diminish across our local waters. The high will move offshore
by midweek ahead of another approaching cold front that should
impact our local waters late this week, with south to
southwesterly winds prevailing ahead of the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Red Flag Conditions This Afternoon From Waycross Southward

- Red Flag Conditions Likely On Monday For Portions Of Our Area

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Today, Monday, And Wednesday

- Elevated Nighttime Dispersion Values Tonight

- Long Durations Of Critically Low Humidity On Tuesday Inland

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for all of northeast
and north central Florida and for portions of southeast Georgia.

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will exit our area before
noon, with strong northwesterly surface and transport winds then
overspreading our region late this morning through this afternoon. A
very dry air mass will plunge into our area this afternoon,
resulting in critically low humidity values for locations from
Waycross southward in southeast Georgia and across all of northeast
and north central Florida, where Red Flag Warnings have been issued.
Strong northwesterly transport winds and breezy surface speeds will
continue tonight and Monday, creating Elevated Nighttime Dispersion
values tonight.

A Fire Weather Watch has been maintained throughout our entire
region on Monday, as minimum relative humidity values and soil
moisture levels following Saturday night and Sunday morning`s
rainfall amounts remain in question. Red Flag conditions appear
likely across most of northeast and north central Florida, with an
Elevated Fire Danger likely elsewhere, with high daytime dispersion
values expected at most locations as well. Northwesterly surface and
transport winds will gradually diminish on Monday night and will
shift to westerly on Tuesday. Long durations of critically low
humidity values are forecast at all inland locations on Tuesday,
with fair to good daytime dispersion values expected. Southwesterly
surface and transport winds are forecast to increase on Wednesday,
creating high daytime dispersion values inland, with good values
expected at coastal locations.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A light freeze is expected tonight
for all of inland southeast Georgia and for inland locations along
and north of the Interstate 10 corridor in northeast Florida.
Widespread subfreezing temperatures are forecast area-wide late on
Monday night through early Tuesday morning, with a hard freeze
expected for inland southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley, and for
portions of inland northeast Florida. widespread frost and a
possible light freeze are forecast on Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 30 49 25 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 66 34 50 31 / 40 0 0 0
JAX 70 33 53 28 / 40 0 0 0
SGJ 73 36 54 33 / 50 0 0 0
GNV 70 34 55 27 / 30 0 0 0
OCF 71 34 55 27 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for GAZ151-152-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this
afternoon for AMZ450-452-454.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
afternoon for AMZ470-472-474.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$
#1260526 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 22.Feb.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1225 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Red Flag Warning Sunday Afternoon & Evening for NE FL, Portions of
SE GA. Wind gusts 25-35 MPH, Min RH Values 25-30%. Fire Weather Watch
Area-Wide Monday

- Small Craft Advisory & Gale Warning Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of Our Region

- Widespread Freeze & Low Wind Chill Values Mon Night & Early Tues.
Light Freeze Potential Sunday Night Inland

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely at all of the TAF sites through
mid-morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. GNV has
the highest potential for dropping to IFR ceilings for a few hours
in the early morning.

Sunday, VFR levels resume as the front will exit to the southeast
with skies clearing by midday to early afternoon. Northwest winds
will increase from 15 knots gusting to 25 knots in the late morning
to up to 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots through the reminder of
the afternoon as a low strengthens quickly to the northeast and high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwesterly winds will quickly strengthen in the wake of a frontal
passage on Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions quickly
changing to Gale conditions Sunday afternoon. A Gale Warning is in
effect Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for frequent gusts
to Gale Force as low pressure rapidly strengthens near the Mid-
Atlantic and New England coasts through Monday night. Arctic high
pressure will then build along the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday
and then shift across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday night,
allowing for winds and seas to diminish across our local waters. The
high will move offshore by midweek ahead of another approaching cold
front that should impact our local waters late this week, with south
to southwesterly winds prevailing ahead of the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 30 49 25 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 66 34 50 31 / 40 0 0 0
JAX 70 33 53 28 / 40 0 0 0
SGJ 73 36 54 33 / 50 0 0 0
GNV 70 34 55 27 / 30 0 0 0
OCF 71 34 55 27 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for GAZ151-152-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this
afternoon for AMZ450-452-454.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
afternoon for AMZ470-472-474.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for
AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$