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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1260585 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 22.Feb.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 135 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will press through the Keys this evening, leading to cooler temperatures, a substantial drop in humidity, and a period of windy conditions. - Chances of rain are expected this evening for the Lower and Middle Keys with slight chances for the Upper Keys. Only a few hundredths of an inch are anticipated, especially for the Lower Keys. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. The combination of dry air and windy conditions will lead to a period of elevated fire weather concerns Monday afternoon, particularly in the Upper Keys. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will push through the Florida Keys between 00-02z this evening. This will be preceded by a bout of scattered showers and a quick wind shift to the northwest. VCSH is included in the TAFs at this time, along with a TEMPO for BKN low CIGs and showers reducing visibility. Near- surface winds will gust to near 30 knots after sunset, with cross- wind components near 25 knots, posing a challenge at the terminals through 12z Monday morning, briefly slackening in the late morning and afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1108 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Winds will shift to the northwest and freshen in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage this evening from west to east. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected in the wake of the front, lasting through at least Tuesday morning. Winds will slowly slacken and veer to the northeast,then eventually shift to the east to southeast Tuesday through Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A nebulous pressure gradient remains across the Keys early this morning. This will result in light and variable breezes continuing for the next few to several hours. With the light and variable winds early this morning, there may be some patchy fog, especially across the SE Gulf. Any fog will quickly mix out once the sun comes up this morning. Daytime highs today will still be quite warm today near 80 degrees with lower 80s still possible. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys resulting in nil to near nil rain chances through late morning. A "bring it" cold front will blast through the area this evening which is currently draped across the Florida Peninsula extending southwestward through the western Gulf and into Mexico. This front will bring another blast of much cooler weather to the Keys giving Florida a taste of winter yet again. The result will be a period of windy conditions, tumbling temperatures and humidity, and slight chances of rain. Light and variable winds this morning will become west to northwest during the day while freshening. Breezes will dramatically increase this evening with the frontal passage while also shifting to the northwest to north. Expect fresh to strong, potentially near gale breezes, beginning this evening continuing through the early part of this week. The peak breezes are expected overnight into early Monday with some slackening during the day before another surge Monday evening and overnight. Latest guidance has become more robust with the moisture ahead of frontal passage. Therefore, chances of rain (30%) are now in the forecast for the Middle and Lower Keys with slight chances (20%) for the Upper Keys. Rainfall is not expected to amount to all that much with only a few to several hundredths of an inch anticipated. We expect a broken line of showers to move through from northwest to southeast through the Keys. The most likely time for the Island Chain is between 4pm this afternoon to 8 pm this evening. This won`t bode well for the ongoing drought across Florida currently. Temperatures tonight are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s (upper 40s for the Upper Keys) with highs in the lower to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday. The coldest night is expected to be Monday night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s for the Upper Keys and near 50 for the Middle and Lower Keys. Tuesday night will also be quite chilly with lows 50 to 55. Wind chills in the Upper Keys Monday night may touch 35 degrees for a couple hours. However, this is still low confidence and we will continue to monitor for the potential of a cold weather product. In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will traverse across the North Gulf Coast from early to mid next week. This will keep fresh to strong northerly winds initially before winds veer around the compass becoming east to southeast by mid to late week. Plenty of dry air will remain across the Keys yet again leading to nil rain chances. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate towards the middle of the week, potentially reaching into the lower 80s once again by late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 58 63 52 / 30 20 0 0 Marathon 80 55 62 49 / 30 20 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1260570 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1119 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will press through the Keys tonight, leading to cooler temperatures, a substantial drop in humidity, and a period of windy conditions. - Chances of rain are expected today for the Middle and Lower Keys with slight chances for the Upper Keys. Only a few hundredths of an inch are anticipated, especially for the Lower Keys. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. The combination of dry air and windy conditions will lead to a period of elevated fire weather concerns Monday afternoon, particularly in the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1108 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Any low clouds and patchy fog across portions of the Lower and Middle Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore Gulf waters dissipated quickly after sunrise. Surface analysis places a potent cold front draped across the Gulf, extending from a cyclone undergoing rapid intensification off the coast of the Carolinas. Ample solar insolation, coupled with light westerly winds, has supported quickly rising temperatures across the Florida Keys, inching to near 80F. The story of the day (and really for the week) is the cold frontal passage late this evening from west to east. A band of showers will struggle to push through the Island Chain ahead of the front, but decent boundary layer moistening and the aforementioned strengthening low should support modest measurable rainfall at many communities. No changes to the inherited forecast required. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A nebulous pressure gradient remains across the Keys early this morning. This will result in light and variable breezes continuing for the next few to several hours. With the light and variable winds early this morning, there may be some patchy fog, especially across the SE Gulf. Any fog will quickly mix out once the sun comes up this morning. Daytime highs today will still be quite warm today near 80 degrees with lower 80s still possible. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys resulting in nil to near nil rain chances through late morning. A "bring it" cold front will blast through the area this evening which is currently draped across the Florida Peninsula extending southwestward through the western Gulf and into Mexico. This front will bring another blast of much cooler weather to the Keys giving Florida a taste of winter yet again. The result will be a period of windy conditions, tumbling temperatures and humidity, and slight chances of rain. Light and variable winds this morning will become west to northwest during the day while freshening. Breezes will dramatically increase this evening with the frontal passage while also shifting to the northwest to north. Expect fresh to strong, potentially near gale breezes, beginning this evening continuing through the early part of this week. The peak breezes are expected overnight into early Monday with some slackening during the day before another surge Monday evening and overnight. Latest guidance has become more robust with the moisture ahead of frontal passage. Therefore, chances of rain (30%) are now in the forecast for the Middle and Lower Keys with slight chances (20%) for the Upper Keys. Rainfall is not expected to amount to all that much with only a few to several hundredths of an inch anticipated. We expect a broken line of showers to move through from northwest to southeast through the Keys. The most likely time for the Island Chain is between 4pm this afternoon to 8 pm this evening. This won`t bode well for the ongoing drought across Florida currently. Temperatures tonight are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s (upper 40s for the Upper Keys) with highs in the lower to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday. The coldest night is expected to be Monday night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s for the Upper Keys and near 50 for the Middle and Lower Keys. Tuesday night will also be quite chilly with lows 50 to 55. Wind chills in the Upper Keys Monday night may touch 35 degrees for a couple hours. However, this is still low confidence and we will continue to monitor for the potential of a cold weather product. In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will traverse across the North Gulf Coast from early to mid next week. This will keep fresh to strong northerly winds initially before winds veer around the compass becoming east to southeast by mid to late week. Plenty of dry air will remain across the Keys yet again leading to nil rain chances. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate towards the middle of the week, potentially reaching into the lower 80s once again by late week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1108 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Winds will shift to the northwest and freshen in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage this evening from west to east. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected in the wake of the front, lasting through at least Tuesday morning. Winds will slowly slacken and veer to the northeast,then eventually shift to the east to southeast Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will push through the Florida Keys after 00z tonight. This will be preceded by a bout of scattered showers and a quick wind shift to the northwest. VCSH is included in the TAFs at this time, with possible TEMPOs required depending on shower evolution over the next several hours. Near-surface winds will gust to near 30 knots after sunset, with cross-wind components near 25 knots, posing a challenge at the terminals through 12z Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 58 63 52 / 30 20 0 0 Marathon 80 55 62 49 / 30 20 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1260550 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 431 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to gentle variable breezes will continue through at least mid morning. Patchy fog is also possible early this morning. - A strong cold front will press through the Keys tonight, leading to cooler temperatures, a substantial drop in humidity, and a period of windy conditions. - Chances of rain are expected today for the Middle and Lower Keys with slight chances for the Upper Keys. Only a few hundredths of an inch are anticipated, especially for the Lower Keys. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. The combination of dry air and windy conditions will lead to a period of elevated fire weather concerns Monday afternoon, particularly in the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 CIMSS products shows a deep mean layer ridge over the central North Atlantic with the center of this ridge just northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The western periphery of this ridge continues to retreat into the Atlantic leaving the Keys in nebulous flow this morning. A complex pattern exists across much of North America with a trough beginning to dig southward into Florida. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are observing mainly light and variable breezes as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products is beginning to show slight moistening across the Keys with estimated PWAT values surrounding 1 inch. The deeper moisture is currently draped across northern Florida southwestward across the North Gulf. KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity as a result. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics shows dense fog currently over the mainland, though, this has remained outside of the Keys coverage area for now. The Keys remain partly cloudy with a fair amount of stratocumulus traversing from west to east across the area. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. .FORECAST... A nebulous pressure gradient remains across the Keys early this morning. This will result in light and variable breezes continuing for the next few to several hours. With the light and variable winds early this morning, there may be some patchy fog, especially across the SE Gulf. Any fog will quickly mix out once the sun comes up this morning. Daytime highs today will still be quite warm today near 80 degrees with lower 80s still possible. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys resulting in nil to near nil rain chances through late morning. A "bring it" cold front will blast through the area this evening which is currently draped across the Florida Peninsula extending southwestward through the western Gulf and into Mexico. This front will bring another blast of much cooler weather to the Keys giving Florida a taste of winter yet again. The result will be a period of windy conditions, tumbling temperatures and humidity, and slight chances of rain. Light and variable winds this morning will become west to northwest during the day while freshening. Breezes will dramatically increase this evening with the frontal passage while also shifting to the northwest to north. Expect fresh to strong, potentially near gale breezes, beginning this evening continuing through the early part of this week. The peak breezes are expected overnight into early Monday with some slackening during the day before another surge Monday evening and overnight. Latest guidance has become more robust with the moisture ahead of frontal passage. Therefore, chances of rain (30%) are now in the forecast for the Middle and Lower Keys with slight chances (20%) for the Upper Keys. Rainfall is not expected to amount to all that much with only a few to several hundredths of an inch anticipated. We expect a broken line of showers to move through from northwest to southeast through the Keys. The most likely time for the Island Chain is between 4pm this afternoon to 8 pm this evening. This won`t bode well for the ongoing drought across Florida currently. Temperatures tonight are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s (upper 40s for the Upper Keys) with highs in the lower to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday. The coldest night is expected to be Monday night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s for the Upper Keys and near 50 for the Middle and Lower Keys. Tuesday night will also be quite chilly with lows 50 to 55. Wind chills in the Upper Keys Monday night may touch 35 degrees for a couple hours. However, this is still low confidence and we will continue to monitor for the potential of a cold weather product. In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will traverse across the North Gulf Coast from early to mid next week. This will keep fresh to strong northerly winds initially before winds veer around the compass becoming east to southeast by mid to late week. Plenty of dry air will remain across the Keys yet again leading to nil rain chances. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate towards the middle of the week, potentially reaching into the lower 80s once again by late week. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Small Craft Advisory Conditions are expected tonight are headlined for Florida Bay, the Bay/Gulfside waters, Hawk Channel, and the eastern Straits. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds late today is headlined for the nearshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys as well as Florida Bay. In addition, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds this afternoon is headlined for the SE Gulf and the westernmost Florida Straits as well as Small Craft Advisory Likely will be required late today. From synopsis, light and variable breezes will continue early this morning as a nebulous pressure gradient remains. A strong cold front will approach and sweep through the Keys coastal waters beginning this evening with strong, potentially near gale, northwest to north breezes anticipated in its wake. Winds will slowly slacken and veer to the northeast, then eventually shift to the east to southeast Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A chance of patchy fog development is possible early this morning that could result in IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility. Once the sun comes up, this potential fog will burn off and result in VFR conditions. Later this afternoon into the evening hours, a cold front will approach the island chain, with some possible light showers associated and a sharp wind increase to 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts of near 25 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this date in Keys weather history in 2019, the daily record warm low temperature of 79F was recorded in Key West. This is also the warmest low temperature reading for the month of February for Key West. Temperature date for Key West dates back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 58 63 52 / 30 20 0 0 Marathon 80 55 62 49 / 30 20 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
