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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1230778 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 PM 16.May.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 255 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Persistence is the name of the game this evening across the Florida Keys. Temperatures across the island chain are rising towards the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper dew points. Near surface winds are consistently out of the southeast between 5 to 10 knots, bringing more moisture across the Keys from the Straits. Non-meteorological echoes are the only objects currently seen by the KBYX radar, and GOES-E sees fair weather cumulus clouds across the nearshore waters. No changes are expected to the pattern tonight, over South Florida the weather pattern simply is not changing drastically. Across the Florida Keys, we will be in, functionally, a blocking pattern for the weekend and early next week. A well developed mid-level ridge over the Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula will keep deflecting the subtropical jet north of the Keys throughout the week and sustain deep layer subsidence over South Florida. Complicating the pattern will be the lack of a robust high pressure system north of the Antilles or in the southeastern CONUS. Instead, a high is progged to build over northern Ontario and Manitoba during the weekend. Resultant breezes across the Keys are thus forecast to be prevailing light to gentle breezes during the day and gentle to moderate during nighttime hours. Statistical guidance suggests the weather pattern will shift Wednesday to Thursday. A sequence of low pressure systems across the northern half of the CONUS will moderate the mid level ridge and allow light to gentle breezes to shift from southeasterlies to variable or southwesterlies. Southerlies on Wednesday suggest a Cuban Shadow will inhibit shower development even as the environmental flow field shifts to allow additional moisture to reach at least 750 mb. Southwesterlies on Thursday suggest a reverse cloud line and potential waterspouts. PoPs are at 20% for now with thunderstorms added back into the forecast. The wet season is very, very close at hand, so take advantage of our upcoming dry weather! && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 No watches or warnings are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a dry pattern defined by a distant high pressure system in the central Atlantic and lack of a close high over the CONUS will lead to breezes shifting from light to moderate breezes for the next few days. In the absence of nearby strong pressure systems, breezes will peak and lull through Tuesday. Near nil shower chances will persist until Wednesday as an increase in moisture allows for possible showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period with minimal sky cover and near-nil rain chances. Near-surface winds will remain from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record high temperature of 92F was recorded in Key West. The same day also saw the daily record warm low temperature of 83F recorded at both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 80 87 80 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230750 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 16.May.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL 1110 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A simple "copy and paste" forecast discussion would suffice for this Friday morning update cycle. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled very dry air throughout the depth of the troposphere, along with a series of subsidence inversions between 900-800 mb. Yet another dry, mostly sunny forecast is on tap for this afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the upper 80s at most communities. No changes proposed to the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a large, expansive high pressure system parked in the central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next several days across the Keys coastal waters. This will result in minor peaks and lulls along with near- nil shower chances. The high will begin gradually shifting eastward by Tuesday, allowing for an increase in moisture and a threat for showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 15z Saturday morning, along with nil rain chances. Near-sruface winds will remain out of the east to southeast and 7 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230710 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 16.May.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A large, expansive surface high stretches across the central North Atlantic southwestward across Florida and the Gulf. This is maintaining east to southeast winds across the Florida Keys. At the same time, an upper level ridge is moving in from the west. The combination of which are providing substantial deep dry air and subsidence. As a result, there are hardly any clouds present and the KBYX radar is void of any meteorological echoes. Temperatures are stubbornly holding near 80 degrees this hour with dew points in the lower 70s. .FORECAST... The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to slowly trek eastward across the Gulf. Meanwhile, the expansive surface high across the Atlantic will hold fast through the weekend and into early next week. The combination of these features will keep a tight lid on the atmosphere and maintain near nil rain chances. It will also mean that we will see a gradual warming trend with slightly above normal temperatures. For reference, Key West International Airport normals are 86 for a high and 76 for a low. Daytime highs over the next several days will be slowly creeping into the upper 80s, while overnight lows may struggle to fall below 80 degrees. Likewise, dew points will be edging upward with values approaching the mid 70s. Over the weekend and into early next week, a series of strong surface lows will trek across the northern tier of the U.S. and eastern Canada. This will eventually wear on the surface high and shift it further east. By Tuesday night it will shift just enough eastward, that winds will begin clocking around to the south and southwest. As this occurs, moisture will be steadily increasing in the boundary layer. That being said, A) it will take time to overcome the numerous days of deep dry air and B) initially the southerly winds will act against us during the daytime on Wednesday. Therefore, rain chances will remain near nil through Wednesday. Slight rain chances and even the threat for isolated thunderstorms return Wednesday night. By Thursday, we will have to begin keeping an eye on the southwesterlies as this will promote cloud lines with the added potential hazards of waterspouts. For now, keeping rain chances at slight, but there is room to go up as we get closer to the event. However, being nearly a week out, felt at least confident to at least nudge up PoPs. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A large, expansive high pressure parked in the central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next several days across the Keys coastal waters. This will result in minor peaks and lulls through the next several days along with near- nil shower chances. The high will begin gradually shifting eastward by Tuesday, allowing for an increase in moisture and a threat for showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period with minimal sky cover and near-nil rain chances influenced by quite dry air above the near-surface layer. Winds will persist from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record high temperature of 92F was recorded in Key West. The same day also saw the daily record warm low temperature of 83F recorded at both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
