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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1225159 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 01.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 248 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Not much to discuss regarding the weather today. It has been a warm and muggy day for the Florida Keys. KBYX radar is void of any meteorological signatures. On visible satellite, there is an interesting gyre that has been slowly meandering westward. It is centered just east of Cay Sal Bank. It was wasn`t for some subtle cloud streamers it would go unnoticed. Other than looking cool it`s not doing anything that would affect mariners who may be out in the distant Straits of Florida. The western flank of a broad ridge is slowly strengthening and our winds have returned from the east to southeast. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points uncomfortably in the mid 70s. The aforementioned ridge that is currently sitting across the Atlantic will get "help" in the next 24 hours or so...let`s explain. A strong low pressure system moving across the Rockies will slide east into the Central Plains tonight into Wednesday. The pressure gradient between these two features will beginning tightening. Ahead of this feature there is a shortwave ridge aloft that will get shoved over top of the existing ridge across the Atlantic. This will force the two to merge essentially and allow for the ridge as a whole to expand and build. This will lead to a more noticeable uptick on winds starting Wednesday. A prolonged period of fresh to strong easterlies is expected to continue through the end of the week. The question becomes when do the winds relax. Yesterday the models were in good agreement that it should be Saturday. However, now the models are lingering into Saturday night with at least breezy conditions before winds quickly come down. During this period, rain chances will be less than 10 percent. Despite what would be ideal conditions for fast moving light showers given the favorable wind direction and speeds, there appears to be too much dry air aloft. That`s not to say we still couldn`t see widely scattered showers or sprinkles but it likely wouldn`t produce anything measurable. Beyond the next weekend, models are actually teasing a late season frontal passage. There is still some timing difference plus we have 7 days still. Therefore we won`t go into too much detail as things can certainly change this far out. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Light to gentle east to southeast breezes this evening will gradually freshen tonight. A strong high pressure system will build in the western North Atlantic Wednesday, leading to additional freshening breezes across the Florida Keys marine zones. Fresh to strong east to southeast breezes are expected for Wednesday through at least Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories may be required as early as Wednesday for portions of the coastal waters and becoming more likely by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 VFR conditions prevail for EYW and MTH during the 18Z TAF period. Near surface winds will build from southeasterlies near 10 knots to 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts above 20 knots by sunrise tomorrow morning. CIGs will not be sufficient to cause prolonged MVFR conditions this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 85 76 84 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 77 83 77 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225133 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1037 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Another quiet, but muggy morning for the Florida Keys. The pressure gradient has temporarily weakened, which in turn allowed for our winds to collapse overnight. This in combination with decently clear skies allowed for the interior of the larger Keys to fall to near 70 degrees just prior to dawn. In addition, did have some fog and low stratus develop across the outer Gulf waters. This is beginning to advect out of the area and dissipate. There were some very isolated and very small showers present this morning across the Straits of Florida, but these have all diminished and the KBYX radar is free of meteorological returns at least. There are some birds transiting the Straits of Florida, heading back north as part of the annual migration pattern. No changes made to the going forecast. Temperatures as of 10 AM are already in the lower 80s and dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. The western end of a broad ridge will begin to strengthen, which will allow east to southeast winds to gradually increase through the afternoon. This will keep us warm and muggy this afternoon with day time highs peaking in the mid 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1037 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Light to gentle east to southeast breezes are expected through the afternoon. A strong high pressure system will build in the western North Atlantic tonight and Wednesday, leading to freshening breezes across the Florida Keys marine zones. Fresh to strong east to southeast breezes are expected for Wednesday through Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for EYW and MTH for the upcoming 12Z TAF period. Near surface winds will start out light and variable, but sunrise will cause a shift towards sustained east southeasterlies, and by sunset expect a gradual increase towards near 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225096 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 321 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Earlier evening convection in the vicinity of the South Florida Mainland, Andros Island, and the island of Cuba quickly waned overnight. This was likely due to a combination of lower tropospheric dry air winning the convective battle, coupled by collapsing low-level steering flow. Surface analysis places a frontal boundary stretching from the Gulf Coast northeastward to New England, where a rather widespread severe weather event took place through much of the day, including numerous damaging wind reports. Closer to home, the dominant surface synoptic feature is an area of high pressure now centered east of Bermuda, with light to gentle southeasterly return low-level flow for the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. Dew points in the lower to mid 70s at most land-based surface observation locations has limited radiational cooling impacts, with most communities hovering in the lower to mid 70s at this early Tuesday morning hour. GOES-16 RGB nighttime microphysics imagery is highlighting mostly clear skies over much of the forecast area, with KBYX struggling to detect meteorological echo returns. The exception to this is across the offshore Gulf waters, where patchy fog is currently being detected across the cooler, deeper waters to the northwest of the Dry Tortugas. Ensemble global numerical weather prediction guidance is in great agreement for the synoptic pattern over the next several days, yielding a generally high confidence forecast. The aforementioned frontal feature will slowly progress into the western North Atlantic over the next 24-48 hours, with a strong, 1035 mb high pressure building in its wake off the Mid-Atlantic. This feature will support a tightening pressure gradient for the Florida Keys beginning late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with breezy to windy conditions then expected through the end of the work week. Normally in this freshened east to southeasterly steering flow, combined with sea surface temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80F south of the Island Chain, boundary layer moisture fluxes are enough to support at least isolated shower activity. However, forecast soundings suggest very dry surface to 850 mb moisture profiles, and thus have elected to retain the inherited nil measurable rain chances for now through Saturday. This will be reevaluated in upcoming forecast cycles, given it would only take subtle moisture ribbons to yield some shower activity. The high will finally weaken as it meanders in the central North Atlantic by the end of the weekend, and extended guidance suggests a late-season frontal boundary may approach the Gulf. This should support collapsing flow, a return to boundary layer moisture, and associated slight measurable rain chances for Sunday and Monday. Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next seven days, with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s, lows in the mid 70s, and dew points in the lower 70s. Summer appears to quickly be knocking on the door, Florida Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters. Light to gentle east to southeast breezes are expected today. A strong high pressure system will build in the western North Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday, leading to freshening breezes across the Florida Keys marine zones. Fresh to strong east to southeast breezes are expected for Wednesday through Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories may be required as early as Wednesday morning for portions of the Keys coastal waters, likely being expanded to all marine zones by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds are expected to remain southeast to south early this morning between 2 to 6 knots before becoming east to southeast after sunrise and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather history, in 1987, the daily record cold high temperature of 65F was recorded at Key West. This is tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in April in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 75 84 76 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 83 76 84 76 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
