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| #1260575 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 PM 22.Feb.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1245 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Areas of Dense Fog will develop across the interior as well as Southwest Florida early this morning, Some of this fog could potentially spread closer to east coast metro areas before lifting shortly after sunrise. - A cold front will push through the region this afternoon into early this evening increasing the chances of showers during this time frame. - Much colder and drier conditions will push into the region beginning tonight and lasting through Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 The weather pattern will undergo quite a change across the region today as a potent mid to upper level low/trough complex dives southeastward across the Eastern Seaboard and into the Florida Peninsula as today progresses. At the surface, low pressure will rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward off of the North Carolina coastline towards the Mid Atlantic region as today progresses. A cold front associated with this system will gradually approach and move across South Florida this afternoon into the early evening hours. There will be enough moisture and lift in place to support a broken line of showers out ahead of the front as it pushes through the region. With the best dynamics and instability located well of to the northeast of the region, thunderstorm chances will remain rather limited across South Florida. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the Lake Okeechobee region as well as northern portions of the east coast metro areas due to the front pushing through during peak diurnal heating. High temperatures this afternoon out ahead of the front will rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. The exception to this will be along the Southwest Florida coast, where high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s due to onshore flow. Behind the front, strong high pressure will begin to build into the region from the northwest and the pressure gradient across the region will tighten rapidly. This will bring a breezy and gusty northwesterly wind flow to the region tonight and into Monday as well. Strong cold air advection will be taking place along the northwesterly wind flow during this time frame and an abundance of very dry air will push into the region as well. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s to around 40 west of Lake Okeechobee as well as the interior portions of Southwest Florida while lower to mid 40s will be common tonight across the region of the region. Lows across the east coast metro areas will fall into the mid to upper 40s. With the strong northwesterly winds factored into the equation, wind chill values will be even colder tonight as they will drop into the lower to mid 30s across the Lake Okeechobee region while mid to upper 30s will be common across the rest of the interior locations. Wind chill values in the lower 40s will be common across the east coast metro areas. With strong cold and dry air advection continuing into the day on Monday, high temperatures will remain well below normal as they will only rise into the lower 60s across most of the region. The exception to this will be across extreme southwestern areas, where high temperatures may reach the mid 60s. Dewpoints will tumble into the 20s and lower 30s across most of the region on Monday, and when combined with the wind, could create some fire weather concerns. More information on that will be found in the fire weather section below. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 The weather pattern will undergo quite a change across the region today as a potent mid to upper level low/trough complex dives southeastward across the Eastern Seaboard and into the Florida Peninsula as today progresses. At the surface, low pressure will rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward off of the North Carolina coastline towards the Mid Atlantic region as today progresses. A cold front associated with this system will gradually approach and move across South Florida this afternoon into the early evening hours. There will be enough moisture and lift in place to support a broken line of showers out ahead of the front as it pushes through the region. With the best dynamics and instability located well of to the northeast of the region, thunderstorm chances will remain rather limited across South Florida. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the Lake Okeechobee region as well as northern portions of the east coast metro areas due to the front pushing through during peak diurnal heating. High temperatures this afternoon out ahead of the front will rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. The exception to this will be along the Southwest Florida coast, where high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s due to onshore flow. Behind the front, strong high pressure will begin to build into the region from the northwest and the pressure gradient across the region will tighten rapidly. This will bring a breezy and gusty northwesterly wind flow to the region tonight and into Monday as well. Strong cold air advection will be taking place along the northwesterly wind flow during this time frame and an abundance of very dry air will push into the region as well. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s to around 40 west of Lake Okeechobee as well as the interior portions of Southwest Florida while lower to mid 40s will be common tonight across the region of the region. Lows across the east coast metro areas will fall into the mid to upper 40s. With the strong northwesterly winds factored into the equation, wind chill values will be even colder tonight as they will drop into the lower to mid 30s across the Lake Okeechobee region while mid to upper 30s will be common across the rest of the interior locations. Wind chill values in the lower 40s will be common across the east coast metro areas. With strong cold and dry air advection continuing into the day on Monday, high temperatures will remain well below normal as they will only rise into the lower 60s across most of the region. The exception to this will be across extreme southwestern areas, where high temperatures may reach the mid 60s. Dewpoints will tumble into the 20s and lower 30s across most of the region on Monday, and when combined with the wind, could create some fire weather concerns. More information on that will be found in the fire weather section below. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Strong surface high pressure will continue to dive southeastward and center over the Deep South on Monday night before gradually centering over the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. Strong cold air advection will continue to take place on Monday night into Tuesday morning along with breezy conditions remaining in place. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite is still trending colder and there remains a medium chance (40 to 60 percent) of temperatures dropping near or just below the freezing mark across interior portions of Southwest Florida early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s will be common across most other areas during this time frame. The exception to this will be across the east coast metro areas, where low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s. Since northwesterly winds will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday morning, wind chill values will drop into the mid to upper 20s across interior portions of Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region. Wind chill values in the lower to mid 30s will be common elsewhere. As high pressure centers over South Florida on Tuesday, the winds will gradually diminsh as the day progresses, however, cold air advection will be taking place throughout most of the day. This will keep high temperatures on the chilly side once again as they remain in the lower to mid 60s along and north of Alligator Alley. High temperatures may rise into the upper 60s once again across extreme southwestern areas. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will feature one more night of chilly temperatures, however, this will be moreso due to radiational cooling than cold air advection as winds will remain light and variable overnight with high pressure centered nearby. This will allow for low temperatures heading into Wednesday morning to drop into the 30s across the Lake region and interior portions of Southwest Florida, while lows in the lower to mid 40s will be common across most other locations. The exception to this will be across the east coast metro areas where lows on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will drop into the upper 40s to around 50. As surface high pressure gradually shifts offshore, this will allow for winds to quickly veer and become southeasterly through the rest of Wednesday and into Thursday while dry conditions remain in place. High temperatures will rebound nicely on Wednesday as they rise back into the lower 70s along the coasts, with mid to upper 70s possible across the interior sections of Southwest Florida. Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as they rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s along the east and west coast, with mid 80s possible across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Towards the very end of the week, the latest guidance suite is hinting at the potential of another cold front draping across the Gulf Coast States as well as Northern Florida. While the forecast remains highly uncertain at this time, at the very least, moisture advection will be taking place across South Florida along the southerly wind flow. This could reintroduce chances of showers area wide heading into Friday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Friday could climb back above climatological normals due to southerly wind flow in place. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 VFR is expected to prevail for most of the period. There will be chances for lower CIGs as the cold front moves through this evening, with amendments made if needed. Otherwise, winds will be gusty out of the WSW this afternoon and then shift NW tonight after 23-00Z as the front passes. Wind gusts will remain at 20-30 kts the rest of today and through tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A cold front will push across the local waters heading into this afternoon and early this evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon into early this evening out ahead of the approaching front. Behind the front northwesterly winds will rapidly increase later this afternoon across the Gulf waters, and then early this evening across the rest of the local waters. Strong to near gale northwesterly winds will persist across most of the local waters tonight into Monday before slowly starting to subside later on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Seas will rapidly increase behind the front and will range from 8 to 10 feet across the Gulf waters tonight into Monday. Seas across the Atlantic waters will also rapidly build tonight ranging between 8 to 12 feet through Monday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A high risk of rip currents will develop across all South Florida beaches tonight into Monday as winds rapidly increase out of the west northwest and seas build across the Atlantic and Gulf waters behind a departing cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 As high pressure builds into the region behind a departing cold front, a much drier air mass will push into South Florida heading into Monday which will allow for minimum relative humidity to fall below critical levels especially during the afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values of 20-30 percent will be common across most of the region on Monday afternoon. With a breezy northwesterly wind flow also anticipated, the potential for Red Flag Conditions is increasing across most of South Florida during this time frame. The Fire Weather Watch remains in place for Monday and if confidence continues to increase, a Red Flag Warning may be needed at some point for Monday. While the winds will subside on Tuesday, minimum relative humidity values will still remain critically low which will lead to enhanced fire weather conditions continuing during this time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 48 63 41 65 / 20 0 0 0 West Kendall 44 65 36 67 / 20 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 46 64 41 67 / 20 0 0 0 Homestead 46 65 40 67 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 46 62 41 65 / 20 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 46 62 41 65 / 20 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 46 65 41 67 / 20 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 44 61 39 64 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 45 62 39 65 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 46 61 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for FLZ068-069-071>075-168-172>174. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ063- 066-070. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ063-066. High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM EST this evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ069. High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1260539 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 214 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Areas of Dense Fog will develop across the interior as well as Southwest Florida early this morning, Some of this fog could potentially spread closer to east coast metro areas before lifting shortly after sunrise. - A cold front will push through the region this afternoon into early this evening increasing the chances of showers during this time frame. - Much colder and drier conditions will push into the region beginning tonight and lasting through Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 The weather pattern will undergo quite a change across the region today as a potent mid to upper level low/trough complex dives southeastward across the Eastern Seaboard and into the Florida Peninsula as today progresses. At the surface, low pressure will rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward off of the North Carolina coastline towards the Mid Atlantic region as today progresses. A cold front associated with this system will gradually approach and move across South Florida this afternoon into the early evening hours. There will be enough moisture and lift in place to support a broken line of showers out ahead of the front as it pushes through the region. With the best dynamics and instability located well of to the northeast of the region, thunderstorm chances will remain rather limited across South Florida. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the Lake Okeechobee region as well as northern portions of the east coast metro areas due to the front pushing through during peak diurnal heating. High temperatures this afternoon out ahead of the front will rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. The exception to this will be along the Southwest Florida coast, where high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s due to onshore flow. Behind the front, strong high pressure will begin to build into the region from the northwest and the pressure gradient across the region will tighten rapidly. This will bring a breezy and gusty northwesterly wind flow to the region tonight and into Monday as well. Strong cold air advection will be taking place along the northwesterly wind flow during this time frame and an abundance of very dry air will push into the region as well. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s to around 40 west of Lake Okeechobee as well as the interior portions of Southwest Florida while lower to mid 40s will be common tonight across the region of the region. Lows across the east coast metro areas will fall into the mid to upper 40s. With the strong northwesterly winds factored into the equation, wind chill values will be even colder tonight as they will drop into the lower to mid 30s across the Lake Okeechobee region while mid to upper 30s will be common across the rest of the interior locations. Wind chill values in the lower 40s will be common across the east coast metro areas. With strong cold and dry air advection continuing into the day on Monday, high temperatures will remain well below normal as they will only rise into the lower 60s across most of the region. The exception to this will be across extreme southwestern areas, where high temperatures may reach the mid 60s. Dewpoints will tumble into the 20s and lower 30s across most of the region on Monday, and when combined with the wind, could create some fire weather concerns. More information on that will be found in the fire weather section below. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Strong surface high pressure will continue to dive southeastward and center over the Deep South on Monday night before gradually centering over the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. Strong cold air advection will continue to take place on Monday night into Tuesday morning along with breezy conditions remaining in place. The latest global and ensemble guidance suite is still trending colder and there remains a medium chance (40 to 60 percent) of temperatures dropping near or just below the freezing mark across interior portions of Southwest Florida early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s will be common across most other areas during this time frame. The exception to this will be across the east coast metro areas, where low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s. Since northwesterly winds will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday morning, wind chill values will drop into the mid to upper 20s across interior portions of Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region. Wind chill values in the lower to mid 30s will be common elsewhere. As high pressure centers over South Florida on Tuesday, the winds will gradually diminsh as the day progresses, however, cold air advection will be taking place throughout most of the day. This will keep high temperatures on the chilly side once again as they remain in the lower to mid 60s along and north of Alligator Alley. High temperatures may rise into the upper 60s once again across extreme southwestern areas. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will feature one more night of chilly temperatures, however, this will be moreso due to radiational cooling than cold air advection as winds will remain light and variable overnight with high pressure centered nearby. This will allow for low temperatures heading into Wednesday morning to drop into the 30s across the Lake region and interior portions of Southwest Florida, while lows in the lower to mid 40s will be common across most other locations. The exception to this will be across the east coast metro areas where lows on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will drop into the upper 40s to around 50. As surface high pressure gradually shifts offshore, this will allow for winds to quickly veer and become southeasterly through the rest of Wednesday and into Thursday while dry conditions remain in place. High temperatures will rebound nicely on Wednesday as they rise back into the lower 70s along the coasts, with mid to upper 70s possible across the interior sections of Southwest Florida. Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as they rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s along the east and west coast, with mid 80s possible across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Towards the very end of the week, the latest guidance suite is hinting at the potential of another cold front draping across the Gulf Coast States as well as Northern Florida. While the forecast remains highly uncertain at this time, at the very least, moisture advection will be taking place across South Florida along the southerly wind flow. This could reintroduce chances of showers area wide heading into Friday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Friday could climb back above climatological normals due to southerly wind flow in place. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Light winds continue across all terminals overnight. Areas of fog will develop especially across the interior sections as well as the Gulf Coast. While KAPF will have the highest chances of seeing visibility reductions, fog could impact KTMB, KMIA, and KOPF as well where periods of MVFR or IFR will remain possible after 08z. Any fog that develops will lift shortly after 13z. A cold front will push through the region this afternoon and winds will rapidly increase out of the WNW across all terminals behind the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A cold front will push across the local waters heading into this afternoon and early this evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon into early this evening out ahead of the approaching front. Behind the front northwesterly winds will rapidly increase later this afternoon across the Gulf waters, and then early this evening across the rest of the local waters. Strong to near gale northwesterly winds will persist across most of the local waters tonight into Monday before slowly starting to subside later on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Seas will rapidly increase behind the front and will range from 8 to 10 feet across the Gulf waters tonight into Monday. Seas across the Atlantic waters will also rapidly build tonight ranging between 8 to 12 feet through Monday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A high risk of rip currents will develop across all South Florida beaches tonight into Monday as winds rapidly increase out of the west northwest and seas build across the Atlantic and Gulf waters behind a departing cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 As high pressure builds into the region behind a departing cold front, a much drier air mass will push into South Florida heading into Monday which will allow for minimum relative humidity to fall below critical levels especially during the afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values of 20-30 percent will be common across most of the region on Monday afternoon. With a breezy northwesterly wind flow also anticipated, the potential for Red Flag Conditions is increasing across most of South Florida during this time frame. The Fire Weather Watch remains in place for Monday and if confidence continues to increase, a Red Flag Warning may be needed at some point for Monday. While the winds will subside on Tuesday, minimum relative humidity values will still remain critically low which will lead to enhanced fire weather conditions continuing during this time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 48 63 41 / 30 20 0 0 West Kendall 87 44 65 36 / 20 20 0 0 Opa-Locka 87 46 64 41 / 30 20 0 0 Homestead 86 46 65 40 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 86 46 62 41 / 40 20 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 86 46 62 41 / 40 20 0 0 Pembroke Pines 88 46 65 41 / 30 20 0 0 West Palm Beach 86 44 61 39 / 60 20 0 0 Boca Raton 86 45 62 39 / 50 20 0 0 Naples 77 46 61 39 / 60 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for FLZ068-069-071>075-168-172>174. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ063- 066-070. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ063-066. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ069. High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
