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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1252608 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Dry and pleasant conditions will continue across South Florida through the first half of the week. - Patchy to areas of dense fog is possible early this morning, mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as interior Southwest Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 125 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Sensible weather conditions across South Florida will generally remain unchanged through the first half of the week, despite the gradual approach of a weak frontal boundary currently draped over north/central Florida. The boundary is forecast to remain stalled over the peninsula over the next couple of days. Nevertheless, with ridging prevailing aloft and meager moisture along the atmospheric column ahead of the front, chances for any convection associated with this boundary will remain very low. Additionally, with onshore surface flow resuming across the region and warm, moist air advecting over South Florida, the warming trend will continue, with highs in the mid 80s each afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 125 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Upper level ridging will remain in place over Florida through the middle of the week as the surface high over the western Atlantic builds back over the peninsula. This will continue to promote easterly flow and a gradual uptick in moisture (up to 1.0-1.3 inches by Wednesday). This could result in slightly warmer feels-like temperatures each afternoon; with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s each day, the apparent temperatures could start approaching the low 90s by Wednesday afternoon. As we head into the long holiday weekend, a stout upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes region, spawning a strong surface low and associated cold front which will sweep across the nation and south across the Florida peninsula sometime between Friday and Saturday. There is still some divergence regarding timing in the ensemble envelope, with the european ensembles favoring a slightly faster progression, and the GFS looking at a slower evolution. We will continue to monitor those differences as we near the end of the week. With enough moisture pooled over the region ahead of this front, this could mean a general increase in the chances for rain starting on Thursday and continuing through the end of the period, with PoPs in the 20-40% range each day. Temperatures could also drop slightly over the weekend once the cooler airmass moves over the area, with highs in the high 70s and lows in the mid 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR should prevail through the period. Light and variable winds overnight become easterly between 5-10 kts late morning, except at KAPF where the Gulf breeze will turn winds from the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 A light to moderate easterly breeze will persist across the local waters through the first half of the week. Winds will veer from the west/northwest across the Gulf waters each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas will range between 1-3 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 70 84 71 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 82 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 72 82 71 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 82 72 83 71 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 84 70 85 71 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 82 70 83 69 / 10 10 0 10 Boca Raton 83 71 84 71 / 10 10 0 10 Naples 85 67 85 67 / 0 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1252602 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1241 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place across South Florida into early this upcoming week. - Patchy to areas of dense fog is possible early this morning, mainly across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as interior Southwest Florida. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Looking at the latest probabilistic data, decided to put areas of fog west of the lake and over inland SW FL early Monday morning, with patchy fog over most of the rest of inland South FL. Too early to determine if any headlines or special weather statements may be needed early in the morning, but that will be monitored closely overnight. Otherwise, the rest of the short and long term forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Sensible weather conditions across South Florida will generally remain unchanged through the short term period, despite the gradual approach of a weak frontal boundary currently draped over the southeast CONUS. The boundary is forecast to stall out somewhere over northern/central Florida as we head into the new week. Nevertheless, the main impact of this frontal approach will be a brief wind shift from the north/northeast expected today. However, with ridging prevailing aloft and meager moisture along the atmospheric column ahead of the front, chances for any convection associated with this boundary will remain very low. Additionally, despite the brief northerly wind shift, the cooler airmass will not reach our area, and temperatures will remain warm, with highs in the low-mid 80s this afternoon. Winds veer back fro the east-northeast on Monday, and the dry and warm pattern will continue. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Ridging will become re-established over the first half of the week as the surface high over the western Atlantic builds back over the Florida peninsula. This will usher in the return of easterly flow and a slight uptick in moisture (up to 1.0-1.3 inches over the first half of the week). This could result in slightly warmer feels-like temperatures each afternoon; with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s each day, the apparent temperatures could start approaching the low 90s by Wednesday afternoon. As we head into the long holiday weekend, a stout upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes region, spawning a strong surface low and associated cold front which will sweep across the nation and south across the Florida peninsula sometime between Friday and Saturday. There is some divergence regarding timing in the ensemble envelope, with the european ensembles favoring a faster progression, and the GFS looking at a slower evolution. We will continue to monitor those differences as we near the end of the week. With enough moisture pooled over the region ahead of this front, this could mean a general increase in the chances for rain starting on Thursday and continuing through the end of the period, with PoPs in the 20-40% range each day. Temperatures could also drop slightly over the weekend once the cooler airmass moves over the area, with highs in the high 70s and lows in the mid 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR should prevail through the period. Light and variable winds overnight become easterly between 5-10 kts late morning, except at KAPF where the Gulf breeze will turn winds from the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Light northerly breeze will develop later today with a weak boundary approaching. Easterly flow will becoming re-established on Monday. Seas will remain in the 1-3 feet range. Winds and seas could build as a stronger boundary approaches later in the week, but timing and intensity remain somewhat uncertain at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 70 84 71 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 82 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 72 82 71 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 82 72 83 71 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 84 70 85 71 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 82 70 83 69 / 10 10 0 10 Boca Raton 83 71 84 71 / 10 10 0 10 Naples 85 67 85 67 / 0 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
