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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1230801 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 16.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 720 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...HEAT INDEX READINGS 98 TO 102 SATURDAY... ...HEAT INDEX READINGS 98 TO 105 SUNDAY... .UPDATE... Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will continue to build into the Florida Peninsula tonight into Friday. This will keep the dry weather over South Florida along with hot temperatures on Saturday Lows tonight should fall into the upper 60s to near 70 over the interior areas to lower to mid 70s over the metro areas. Highs on Saturday will be around 90 over the metro areas to mid 90s over the interior areas. Heat indices will be around 100 over the metro areas to lower 100s over the interior areas. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 It may be the start of the climatological wet season in South FL, but it`s not going to look that way heading into this weekend. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate resulting in warm and dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the coasts to middle 90s over interior SW FL. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in max heat indices in the mid to upper 90s across the east coast metro, and around 100 over the interior. Little relief is expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper 60s over the interior, to middle 70s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Stout deep-layer ridging and anhydrous weather will prevail across South Florida through the weekend and into much of the upcoming work week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA`s/GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow aloft. The lack of synoptic forcing will default prevailing weather to mesoscale processes such as the diurnal sea-breeze circulations each afternoon. Given the lack of cloud cover and subsidence aloft, temperatures will be on the toasty side with values several degrees above average across the area. Across inland locales, afternoon temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s each with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal locations. The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot during the work week, switching from southwest florida to southeastern florida as surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary during the mid to late week period. There won`t be much respite overnight as temperatures along the coast will still remain on the warmer side with lows in the middle to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida. With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and pets. Always look before you lock! By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region, bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary moisture. This extra moisture could provide enough instability to spark up higher rain chances during this period. However, as discussed in the previous area forecast discussion, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this boundary as well as if any upper level synoptic support (current models show the base of the "parent" mid-level trough remaining well to the north) will be in tandem with this feature. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Winds will be light and variable tonight along with dry and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Benign marine conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, with light winds and seas 2 ft or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 92 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 73 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 75 92 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 76 90 76 88 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 75 92 78 95 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 74 92 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 74 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230793 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 PM 16.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 643 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 It may be the start of the climatological wet season in South FL, but it`s not going to look that way heading into this weekend. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate resulting in warm and dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the coasts to middle 90s over interior SW FL. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in max heat indices in the mid to upper 90s across the east coast metro, and around 100 over the interior. Little relief is expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper 60s over the interior, to middle 70s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Stout deep-layer ridging and anhydrous weather will prevail across South Florida through the weekend and into much of the upcoming work week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA`s/GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow aloft. The lack of synoptic forcing will default prevailing weather to mesoscale processes such as the diurnal sea-breeze circulations each afternoon. Given the lack of cloud cover and subsidence aloft, temperatures will be on the toasty side with values several degrees above average across the area. Across inland locales, afternoon temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s each with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal locations. The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot during the work week, switching from southwest florida to southeastern florida as surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary during the mid to late week period. There won`t be much respite overnight as temperatures along the coast will still remain on the warmer side with lows in the middle to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida. With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and pets. Always look before you lock! By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region, bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary moisture. This extra moisture could provide enough instability to spark up higher rain chances during this period. However, as discussed in the previous area forecast discussion, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this boundary as well as if any upper level synoptic support (current models show the base of the "parent" mid-level trough remaining well to the north) will be in tandem with this feature. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Winds will be light and variable tonight along with dry and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Benign marine conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, with light winds and seas 2 ft or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 73 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 75 94 76 92 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 75 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 89 76 88 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 90 76 90 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 77 95 78 95 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 74 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 10 Boca Raton 74 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 Naples 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230777 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 16.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 233 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 It may be the start of the climatological wet season in South FL, but it`s not going to look that way heading into this weekend. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate resulting in warm and dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the coasts to middle 90s over interior SW FL. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in max heat indices in the mid to upper 90s across the east coast metro, and around 100 over the interior. Little relief is expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper 60s over the interior, to middle 70s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Stout deep-layer ridging and anhydrous weather will prevail across South Florida through the weekend and into much of the upcoming work week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA`s/GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow aloft. The lack of synoptic forcing will default prevailing weather to mesoscale processes such as the diurnal sea-breeze circulations each afternoon. Given the lack of cloud cover and subsidence aloft, temperatures will be on the toasty side with values several degrees above average across the area. Across inland locales, afternoon temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s each with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal locations. The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot during the work week, switching from southwest florida to southeastern florida as surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary during the mid to late week period. There won`t be much respite overnight as temperatures along the coast will still remain on the warmer side with lows in the middle to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida. With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and pets. Always look before you lock! By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region, bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary moisture. This extra moisture could provide enough instability to spark up higher rain chances during this period. However, as discussed in the previous area forecast discussion, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this boundary as well as if any upper level synoptic support (current models show the base of the "parent" mid-level trough remaining well to the north) will be in tandem with this feature. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Light SE winds 5-10 kts this afternoon with a westerly gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds late tonight and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Benign marine conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, with light winds and seas 2 ft or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 90 76 90 / 0 10 0 10 West Kendall 73 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 75 93 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 Homestead 76 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 89 76 88 / 0 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 90 75 89 / 0 10 0 10 Pembroke Pines 77 95 78 94 / 0 10 0 10 West Palm Beach 74 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 10 Boca Raton 74 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 Naples 74 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230754 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 PM 16.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1202 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 It may be the start of the climatological wet season in South FL, but it`s not going to look that way heading into this weekend. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate resulting in warm and dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the coasts to middle 90s over interior SW FL. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in max heat indices in the mid to upper 90s across the east coast metro, and around 100 over the interior. Little relief is expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper 60s over the interior, to middle 70s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Surface high and ridging will persist over the Florida peninsula through the extended period. As a result, dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through the weekend and early next week. High temperatures will climb to the mid-upper 90s across southwest Florida, where heat indices could reach 103-105 degrees each afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s. Along coastal areas, seabreezes will help temper conditions during the daytime, keeping highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain balmy in the mid- upper 70s. Chances for rain could return near the end of the long term period. Model guidance shows a surface low developing over the midwest and dragging a surface front as it progresses eastward. If this solution pans out, the front could move across the Florida peninsula late next week, bringing isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to South Florida. Confidence regarding this outcome remains low at this time given uncertainty in timing with this system. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Light SE winds 5-10 kts this afternoon with a westerly gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds late tonight and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Benign marine conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, with light winds and seas 2 ft or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 90 76 89 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 73 92 73 92 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 92 76 92 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 76 90 76 89 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 89 76 88 / 0 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 90 75 89 / 0 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 74 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 10 Boca Raton 74 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 0 Naples 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230736 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 AM 16.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 705 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure over the Gulf continues to nudge eastward keeping a deep layer dry air mass over the Florida peninsula. Dry and mostly sunny conditions continue to end the week and begin the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will continue on a slow upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across interior South Florida and upper 80s along the coasts on Friday. Slightly warmer conditions on Saturday with higher chances that even the coastal areas may enter the low 90s. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid- 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Surface high and ridging will persist over the Florida peninsula through the extended period. As a result, dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through the weekend and early next week. High temperatures will climb to the mid-upper 90s across southwest Florida, where heat indices could reach 103-105 degrees each afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s. Along coastal areas, seabreezes will help temper conditions during the daytime, keeping highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain balmy in the mid- upper 70s. Chances for rain could return near the end of the long term period. Model guidance shows a surface low developing over the midwest and dragging a surface front as it progresses eastward. If this solution pans out, the front could move across the Florida peninsula late next week, bringing isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to South Florida. Confidence regarding this outcome remains low at this time given uncertainty in timing with this system. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 703 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE 5-10 kts this afternoon, although APF will have a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days as the calm center of high pressure sits overhead. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 75 90 76 / 0 0 10 0 West Kendall 91 73 92 73 / 0 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 92 75 92 76 / 0 0 10 0 Homestead 89 75 90 76 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 75 89 76 / 0 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 89 75 89 75 / 0 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 91 73 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 91 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 90 74 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230702 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 16.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 250 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure over the Gulf continues to nudge eastward keeping a deep layer dry air mass over the Florida peninsula. Dry and mostly sunny conditions continue to end the week and begin the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will continue on a slow upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across interior South Florida and upper 80s along the coasts on Friday. Slightly warmer conditions on Saturday with higher chances that even the coastal areas may enter the low 90s. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid- 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Surface high and ridging will persist over the Florida peninsula through the extended period. As a result, dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through the weekend and early next week. High temperatures will climb to the mid-upper 90s across southwest Florida, where heat indices could reach 103-105 degrees each afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s. Along coastal areas, seabreezes will help temper conditions during the daytime, keeping highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain balmy in the mid- upper 70s. Chances for rain could return near the end of the long term period. Model guidance shows a surface low developing over the midwest and dragging a surface front as it progresses eastward. If this solution pans out, the front could move across the Florida peninsula late next week, bringing isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to South Florida. Confidence regarding this outcome remains low at this time given uncertainty in timing with this system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period with no weather concerns. Light/variable flow overnight becomes southeasterly by late morning Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days as the calm center of high pressure sits overhead. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 75 90 76 / 0 0 10 0 West Kendall 91 73 92 73 / 0 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 92 75 92 76 / 0 0 10 0 Homestead 89 75 90 76 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 75 89 76 / 0 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 89 75 89 75 / 0 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 91 73 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 91 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 90 74 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1230688 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 16.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1242 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1126 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 To wrap up the week, an upper-level ridge continues build and push it`s way further eastward into the Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a body of high pressure parks over the Florida Peninsula. With deep layer dry air and the building ridge, warm and benign conditions will remain in South Florida through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue on an upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coasts this afternoon and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid-60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Surface high and ridging will persist over the Florida peninsula through the extended period. As a result, dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through the weekend and early next week. High temperatures will climb to the mid-upper 90s across southwest Florida, where heat indices could reach 103-105 degrees each afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s. Along coastal areas, seabreezes will help temper conditions during the daytime, keeping highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain balmy in the mid- upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period with no weather concerns. Light/variable flow overnight becomes southeasterly by late morning Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days as the calm center of high pressure sits overhead. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 90 76 89 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 73 92 73 92 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 75 90 75 89 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 89 75 88 / 0 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 89 75 89 / 0 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 77 94 78 94 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 73 92 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 Boca Raton 74 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
