|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1248203 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 744 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal low will slowly pull away through Monday, continuing to produce coastal hazards. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 PM Sun...Coastal storm observed rotating in Onslow Bay and only slowly drifting north as of mid afternoon. Most guidance in agreement with forecasting the low to drift across the ENC waters south of the Crystal Coast through tonight, then pull eastward on Mon. This will keep breezy conditions in place tonight, though all wind headlines have been dropped with gusts expected to be in the 30-40 mph, then decreasing from there late as the low continues to fill. Sct to numerous showers and light rain/drizzle will cont across all of ENC as the low works in tandem with upper shortwave swinging through tonight. Amounts will be light, with totals of 0.25 - 0.50" through the overnight. Temps will continue mild with lows in the upper 50s interior to mid 60s OBX. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 4 PM Sun...Aforementioned coastal low will slowly drift eastwards and away from the ENC coastal waters through the day Mon. Breezy conditions through the day as winds veer nwrly, with gusts of 15-25 mph inland zones to 25-35 mph immediate coast. A few showers/light rain/drizzle esp through the morning hours as plentiful low level moisture will remain, but rain amounts generally less than 0.10". Otherwise, ovc skies remain and cool temps for the second week of Oct with highs in the 65-70 degree range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sun...Mostly dry, seasonable and breezy through the week. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through most of the upcoming week. High pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. Temps near climo, feeling more like mid-October with highs falling into the 60s late week and lows in the 40s/50s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00z Tues/... As of 745 PM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, vsbys and gusty winds through tonight Mix of MVFR and IFR conditions still in place with strong and gusty northeast winds as complex coastal low continues to linger offshore sits just off the NC coast. Expecting an expansion of IFR cigs as low begins to move away from the area tonight and winds ease in response, although still staying at 10-15 kt. There will likely be some bouncing back and forth between flight categories with variance between 800-1200 ft. Light rain this evening will give way to drizzle overnight. Light rain chances persist into tomorrow, especially for EWN-OAJ. Drier air finally begins to work into the area tomorrow from the west, but low-level moisture will likely hold strong into the afternoon. MVFR is likely by the afternoon for all terminals, with a slight chance (20%) of VFR for inner coastal plain terminals just before 00z Tues. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 235 PM Sun...Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely to continue into Monday night, grad improving Tue. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 4 PM Sun...Low pres analyzed over Onslow Bay cont to slowly weaken, and wind gradient is responding with all areas below gales at this time. May cont to see ocnl gusts to 34+ kt for a few hours, but widespread gusts have ended. Have replaced all gales with SCA`s as a result. Winds are SE across the Gulf Stream and have diminished to 10-20 kt, while NE winds across rest of the area 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening. As the low slowly moves east on Mon, all of ENC waters become nwrly with speeds cont in the 15-25 kt range with higher gusts nearing 30 kt. Seas will cont on the high side, in the range of 8-14 ft. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 235 PM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week Conditions should continue to grad improve Monday night as the low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several days due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 235 PM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect with a coastal low meandering off the NC coast. Water levels have peaked, but will remain elevated into Mon. The main concern will continue to be areas along oceanside areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (2-4 ft AGL). This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Portions of NC-12 are currently closed from Oregon Inlet to Rodanthe, along with portions in Ocracoke. Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to 2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds across the Pamlico Sound earlier today. Persistent gusty NE winds will keep water levels elevated, slowly improving late tonight and Mon. High water has lead to portions of NC-12 between Cedar Island and Atlantic to be closed. Along and adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible into Mon. Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions) persist due to a strong pressure gradient. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-135-156- 158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ |
| #1248181 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 400 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal low will slowly pull away through Monday, continuing to produce coastal hazards. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 PM Sun...Coastal storm observed rotating in Onslow Bay and only slowly drifting north as of mid afternoon. Most guidance in agreement with forecasting the low to drift across the ENC waters south of the Crystal Coast through tonight, then pull eastward on Mon. This will keep breezy conditions in place tonight, though all wind headlines have been dropped with gusts expected to be in the 30-40 mph, then decreasing from there late as the low continues to fill. Sct to numerous showers and light rain/drizzle will cont across all of ENC as the low works in tandem with upper shortwave swinging through tonight. Amounts will be light, with totals of 0.25 - 0.50" through the overnight. Temps will continue mild with lows in the upper 50s interior to mid 60s OBX. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 4 PM Sun...Aforementioned coastal low will slowly drift eastwards and away from the ENC coastal waters through the day Mon. Breezy conditions through the day as winds veer nwrly, with gusts of 15-25 mph inland zones to 25-35 mph immediate coast. A few showers/light rain/drizzle esp through the morning hours as plentiful low level moisture will remain, but rain amounts generally less than 0.10". Otherwise, ovc skies remain and cool temps for the second week of Oct with highs in the 65-70 degree range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sun...Mostly dry, seasonable and breezy through the week. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through most of the upcoming week. High pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. Temps near climo, feeling more like mid-October with highs falling into the 60s late week and lows in the 40s/50s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 235 PM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, vsbys and gusty winds through tonight Widespread sub-VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon, mostly IFR. Sub-VFR conditions will persist through the period, hovering between IFR and MVFR. Areas of light rain will continue to impact the terminals through this eve, likely becoming more light drizzle late. NE wind gusts 25-35 kt this afternoon will subside a bit this evening, though still gusting 20-25 kt into Mon. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 235 PM Sun...Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely to continue into Monday night, grad improving Tue. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 4 PM Sun...Low pres analyzed over Onslow Bay cont to slowly weaken, and wind gradient is responding with all areas below gales at this time. May cont to see ocnl gusts to 34+ kt for a few hours, but widespread gusts have ended. Have replaced all gales with SCA`s as a result. Winds are SE across the Gulf Stream and have diminished to 10-20 kt, while NE winds across rest of the area 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening. As the low slowly moves east on Mon, all of ENC waters become nwrly with speeds cont in the 15-25 kt range with higher gusts nearing 30 kt. Seas will cont on the high side, in the range of 8-14 ft. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 235 PM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week Conditions should continue to grad improve Monday night as the low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several days due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 235 PM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect with a coastal low meandering off the NC coast. Water levels have peaked, but will remain elevated into Mon. The main concern will continue to be areas along oceanside areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (2-4 ft AGL). This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Portions of NC-12 are currently closed from Oregon Inlet to Rodanthe, along with portions in Ocracoke. Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to 2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds across the Pamlico Sound earlier today. Persistent gusty NE winds will keep water levels elevated, slowly improving late tonight and Mon. High water has lead to portions of NC-12 between Cedar Island and Atlantic to be closed. Along and adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible into Mon. Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions) persist due to a strong pressure gradient. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-135-156- 158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ |
| #1248170 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 232 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal low will continue to impact the area into early this week, producing multiple hazards, especially along the coast. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 130 PM Sun...Low pres cont to meander over Onslow Bay, and will slowly fill and weaken as it does so. Remaining wind advisories may be cancelled early (in the next couple hours) as gusts have diminished below 45 mph for all remaining areas. Otherwise, a raw/rainy/blustery day as widespread rain plagues ENC. Coastal flooding remains the main concern for both oceanside and soundside locales. Prev disc... As of 915 AM Sun...Have cancelled high wind warning and converted to wind adv for OBX/Downeast zones, as winds peaked last night and are gusting 35-50 mph this morning. Have cancelled wind adv for W Carteret, Craven, Pamlico, Mainland Hyde as winds will be below 50 mph rest of today. Gradient of winds is currently west of Diamond Shoals but east of the Capes. With the low slowly meandering near Cape Fear and slowly filling, worst of the winds is behind us. However, steady nne flow will keep elevated water levels and coastal flood warnings and advisories remain unchanged and will be the biggest threat going through today and tonight, as well as early next week for oceanside OBX. Widespread to steady showers and blustery ne breezes will make for a raw day for the remainder of ENC. Prev disc...As of 745 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with multiple hazards through tonight - High Wind Warning now in effect for the OBX Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, the coastal low appears to be about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout as of this morning. The low is moving slowly north. In general, guidance is in good agreement bringing the low north towards the NC coastline during the day today. Based on this track, strong northeasterly winds are expected to continue for much of the day. Based on the latest guidance trends, it appears the risk of strong winds will now last longer, and potentially over a larger area. It appears there will be two areas of enhanced wind potential. The first will be right along a warm front which stretches SW to NE from the low to just off the OBX. This front should help to focus the greatest thunderstorm potential, as well as a locally higher pressure gradient, both of which should act to support 50-60 mph wind gusts at times. This area looks to be focused from Cape Lookout north, and a High Wind Warning is now in effect from Downeast Carteret County through the NRN OBX. A second area of enhanced winds could develop with daytime heating today, where even shallow mixing could support some 40-50 mph wind gusts beneath the strong, 50kt northeasterly LLJ over the area. Given the slower nature of the low, this jet should have more residence time over the area, including during peak heating. To the east of an upper low over GA/SC, a mid-level dryslot has overspread the eastern Carolinas, which has helped transition the rainfall across the area from moderate stratiform rain to more showery rain. I suspect the more showery nature of the rain will continue for much of the day, and this will help to lower rainfall rates for most. As the upper low begins to pivot northeast over the area, an area of heavier deformation band precip may move back into the area, with rates going back up. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Guidance appears to be split between 2 camps regarding the track of the coastal low tonight. The global guidance suggests the low will stall near ENC, then shift back to the SW before getting kicked east on Monday. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance suggests the low will continue to move slowly north up the coast from NC to VA. Scenario 1 would tend to favor decreasing winds tonight, while scenario 2 would favor a continuation of stronger winds through tonight, especially along the OBX. Hi-res guidance appeared to handle the track of the last coastal low fairly well, and we are leaning that direction with the forecast for tonight. While winds are expected to remain gusty, it appears that the risk of 45+ mph gusts will decrease, and for the time being, wind headlines are not expected to continue into tonight. Additionally, it appears the rain will remain more showery in nature, which should tend to limit how much additional rainfall falls. This should also help to lower the flash flood risk with time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sun...Mostly dry, seasonable and breezy through the week. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through most of the upcoming week. High pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. Temps near climo, feeling more like mid-October with highs falling into the 60s late week and lows in the 40s/50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 235 PM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, vsbys and gusty winds through tonight Widespread sub-VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon, mostly IFR. Sub-VFR conditions will persist through the period, hovering between IFR and MVFR. Areas of light rain will continue to impact the terminals through this eve, likely becoming more light drizzle late. NE wind gusts 25-35 kt this afternoon will subside a bit this evening, though still gusting 20-25 kt into Mon. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 235 PM Sun...Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely to continue into Monday night, grad improving Tue. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 130 PM Sun...Have converted gales to SCA`s for waters between Cape Lookout and Oregon Inlet, as warm front has pushed ashore and turned winds to an erly serly direction with speeds of 10-20kt. High seas will remain the main concern here. Gales cont for remaining zones through this afternoon, before winds drop below gales by this evening all areas as the low pres area cont to slowly weaken. Prev disc...As of 930 AM Sun...Have cancelled storm warns and replaced with gales, as worst of the winds occurred last night and early morning. Gales should come down first between C Lookout and Oregon Inlet, as offshore warm front eases westward and brings a lull in the winds, while remaining sounds and waters will cont to see gusty winds of 40 kt or higher remainder of today. Prev disc...As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Storm Warning issued for all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through this afternoon due to a stronger coastal low off the NC coast Winds remain very strong early this morning with a deepening coastal low off the southern NC coast. Winds have gusted 50-60 kts at times early this morning with sustained winds 35-45 kts out of the NNE/NE across most of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. With the low being deeper, and a front to its east lifting slower, it appears very strong NNE/NE flow will continue through the morning hours before winds begin to weaken. As a result, have upgraded much of the marine waters to Storm Warnings, and have Gale Warnings ongoing elsewhere. Exactly when and where winds will weaken remains a difficult question to answer due to the poor forecast guidance, and lack of observations over the open ocean. Best guess is that the system will begin to weaken early this afternoon, however the pressure gradient to the north should remain strong. This will bring weakening winds to southern NC as the low lifts to the northeast along or just off the OBX, and keep strong NE flow over the NOBX through much of the afternoon. Storm/Gale warnings currently end this afternoon, but may need to be extended based on the track and intensity of the low today. Tonight, winds may restrengthen on the backside of the coastal low, likely to 25-35 kts out of the N/NW, but there is potential for winds to be stronger due to the aforementioned uncertainties with this system. Seas will be extremely high the rest of the morning, in the range of 10-20 ft, and then subside to 8-15 ft later today. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 235 PM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week Conditions should continue to grad improve Monday night as the low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several days due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 235 PM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect with a coastal low meandering off the NC coast. Water levels have peaked, but will remain elevated into Mon. The main concern will continue to be areas along oceanside areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (2-4 ft AGL). This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Portions of NC-12 are currently closed from Oregon Inlet to Rodanthe, along with portions in Ocracoke. Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to 2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds across the Pamlico Sound earlier today. Persistent gusty NE winds will keep water levels elevated, slowly improving late tonight and Mon. High water has lead to portions of NC-12 between Cedar Island and Atlantic to be closed. Along and adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible into Mon. Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions) persist due to a strong pressure gradient. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ046-047-203. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-135-137- 150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1248160 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 145 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal low will continue to impact the area into early this week, producing multiple hazards, especially along the coast. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /This afternoon/... As of 130 PM Sun...Low pres cont to meander over Onslow Bay, and will slowly fill and weaken as it does so. Remaining wind advisories may be cancelled early (in the next couple hours) as gusts have diminished below 45 mph for all remaining areas. Otherwise, a raw/rainy/blustery day as widespread rain plagues ENC. Coastal flooding remains the main concern for both oceanside and soundside locales. Prev disc... As of 915 AM Sun...Have cancelled high wind warning and converted to wind adv for OBX/Downeast zones, as winds peaked last night and are gusting 35-50 mph this morning. Have cancelled wind adv for W Carteret, Craven, Pamlico, Mainland Hyde as winds will be below 50 mph rest of today. Gradient of winds is currently west of Diamond Shoals but east of the Capes. With the low slowly meandering near Cape Fear and slowly filling, worst of the winds is behind us. However, steady nne flow will keep elevated water levels and coastal flood warnings and advisories remain unchanged and will be the biggest threat going through today and tonight, as well as early next week for oceanside OBX. Widespread to steady showers and blustery ne breezes will make for a raw day for the remainder of ENC. Prev disc...As of 745 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with multiple hazards through tonight - High Wind Warning now in effect for the OBX Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, the coastal low appears to be about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout as of this morning. The low is moving slowly north. In general, guidance is in good agreement bringing the low north towards the NC coastline during the day today. Based on this track, strong northeasterly winds are expected to continue for much of the day. Based on the latest guidance trends, it appears the risk of strong winds will now last longer, and potentially over a larger area. It appears there will be two areas of enhanced wind potential. The first will be right along a warm front which stretches SW to NE from the low to just off the OBX. This front should help to focus the greatest thunderstorm potential, as well as a locally higher pressure gradient, both of which should act to support 50-60 mph wind gusts at times. This area looks to be focused from Cape Lookout north, and a High Wind Warning is now in effect from Downeast Carteret County through the NRN OBX. A second area of enhanced winds could develop with daytime heating today, where even shallow mixing could support some 40-50 mph wind gusts beneath the strong, 50kt northeasterly LLJ over the area. Given the slower nature of the low, this jet should have more residence time over the area, including during peak heating. To the east of an upper low over GA/SC, a mid-level dryslot has overspread the eastern Carolinas, which has helped transition the rainfall across the area from moderate stratiform rain to more showery rain. I suspect the more showery nature of the rain will continue for much of the day, and this will help to lower rainfall rates for most. As the upper low begins to pivot northeast over the area, an area of heavier deformation band precip may move back into the area, with rates going back up. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Guidance appears to be split between 2 camps regarding the track of the coastal low tonight. The global guidance suggests the low will stall near ENC, then shift back to the SW before getting kicked east on Monday. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance suggests the low will continue to move slowly north up the coast from NC to VA. Scenario 1 would tend to favor decreasing winds tonight, while scenario 2 would favor a continuation of stronger winds through tonight, especially along the OBX. Hi-res guidance appeared to handle the track of the last coastal low fairly well, and we are leaning that direction with the forecast for tonight. While winds are expected to remain gusty, it appears that the risk of 45+ mph gusts will decrease, and for the time being, wind headlines are not expected to continue into tonight. Additionally, it appears the rain will remain more showery in nature, which should tend to limit how much additional rainfall falls. This should also help to lower the flash flood risk with time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the track and strength of the weekend coastal low. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through the rest of the period. PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the week as high pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Monday/... As of 730 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, LLWS, and gusty winds through tonight As of this morning, satellite imagery and marine observations suggest the coastal low is about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout, and moving slowly NE. Because of the slow movement, it`s expected that the gusty northeast winds will continue for much of the day today, with peak gusts of 25-40kt common. Closer to the coast, wind gusts of 40-50kt will be possible. The strongest winds should peak today, then begin to decrease some by tonight. However, the latest guidance has trended up with winds tonight, and I`ve adjusted the TAFs to reflect a longer period of gusty winds. Eventually the winds should become more northerly, or even NNW, by tonight. A strong low-level jet overhead should continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts through the day, and potentially into this evening. Like with the winds, I`ve extended the period of LLWS in the TAFs further out in time. Lastly, CIGs for the most part have been struggling to fall below 1100-1300ft, and I`ve since trended the TAFs more optimistic regarding IFR potential. Guidance continues to insist on IFR/LIFR CIGs developing, but so far this hasn`t materialized on a more widespread basis. It may not be until later today or tonight that this potential is realized, if at all. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 130 PM Sun...Have converted gales to SCA`s for waters between Cape Lookout and Oregon Inlet, as warm front has pushed ashore and turned winds to an erly serly direction with speeds of 10-20kt. High seas will remain the main concern here. Gales cont for remaining zones through this afternoon, before winds drop below gales by this evening all areas as the low pres area cont to slowly weaken. Prev disc...As of 930 AM Sun...Have cancelled storm warns and replaced with gales, as worst of the winds occurred last night and early morning. Gales should come down first between C Lookout and Oregon Inlet, as offshore warm front eases westward and brings a lull in the winds, while remaining sounds and waters will cont to see gusty winds of 40 kt or higher remainder of today. Prev disc...As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Storm Warning issued for all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through this afternoon due to a stronger coastal low off the NC coast Winds remain very strong early this morning with a deepening coastal low off the southern NC coast. Winds have gusted 50-60 kts at times early this morning with sustained winds 35-45 kts out of the NNE/NE across most of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. With the low being deeper, and a front to its east lifting slower, it appears very strong NNE/NE flow will continue through the morning hours before winds begin to weaken. As a result, have upgraded much of the marine waters to Storm Warnings, and have Gale Warnings ongoing elsewhere. Exactly when and where winds will weaken remains a difficult question to answer due to the poor forecast guidance, and lack of observations over the open ocean. Best guess is that the system will begin to weaken early this afternoon, however the pressure gradient to the north should remain strong. This will bring weakening winds to southern NC as the low lifts to the northeast along or just off the OBX, and keep strong NE flow over the NOBX through much of the afternoon. Storm/Gale warnings currently end this afternoon, but may need to be extended based on the track and intensity of the low today. Tonight, winds may restrengthen on the backside of the coastal low, likely to 25-35 kts out of the N/NW, but there is potential for winds to be stronger due to the aforementioned uncertainties with this system. Seas will be extremely high the rest of the morning, in the range of 10-20 ft, and then subside to 8-15 ft later today. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week The coastal low will be weakening Monday but still producing marginal Gale conditions for portions of the marine waters. How long Gale conditions last Monday is unclear to the complicated track and intensity forecast of the low. But, conditions should be improving through the day as the low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several days due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 745 AM Sunday... Periods of moderate to heavy rain will remain a risk along the OBX through the day today as a coastal low lifts slowly north along the SC/NC coast, but it appears this will be more scattered in nature. In light of this, the Flood Watch has been allowed to expire. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain on track this morning with a coastal low meandering off the southern NC coast. Main forecast change this morning is an increase in both wind speed and duration this morning into this afternoon, and as a result, slightly higher water levels/inundation is expected. The highest concern will be along oceanside areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (3-5 ft AGL) with this afternoon`s (~12 pm) high tide. This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to 2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds across the Pamlico Sound this morning. Along and adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible today. Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions) persist due to a strong pressure gradient. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ046-047-203. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ196-204-205. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-135-137- 150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1248135 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:33 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 930 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal low will continue to impact the area into early this week, producing multiple hazards, especially along the coast. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 915 AM Sun...Have cancelled high wind warning and converted to wind adv for OBX/Downeast zones, as winds peaked last night and are gusting 35-50 mph this morning. Have cancelled wind adv for W Carteret, Craven, Pamlico, Mainland Hyde as winds will be below 50 mph rest of today. Gradient of winds is currently west of Diamond Shoals but east of the Capes. With the low slowly meandering near Cape Fear and slowly filling, worst of the winds is behind us. However, steady nne flow will keep elevated water levels and coastal flood warnings and advisories remain unchanged and will be the biggest threat going through today and tonight, as well as early next week for oceanside OBX. Widespread to steady showers and blustery ne breezes will make for a raw day for the remainder of ENC. Prev disc...As of 745 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with multiple hazards through tonight - High Wind Warning now in effect for the OBX Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, the coastal low appears to be about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout as of this morning. The low is moving slowly north. In general, guidance is in good agreement bringing the low north towards the NC coastline during the day today. Based on this track, strong northeasterly winds are expected to continue for much of the day. Based on the latest guidance trends, it appears the risk of strong winds will now last longer, and potentially over a larger area. It appears there will be two areas of enhanced wind potential. The first will be right along a warm front which stretches SW to NE from the low to just off the OBX. This front should help to focus the greatest thunderstorm potential, as well as a locally higher pressure gradient, both of which should act to support 50-60 mph wind gusts at times. This area looks to be focused from Cape Lookout north, and a High Wind Warning is now in effect from Downeast Carteret County through the NRN OBX. A second area of enhanced winds could develop with daytime heating today, where even shallow mixing could support some 40-50 mph wind gusts beneath the strong, 50kt northeasterly LLJ over the area. Given the slower nature of the low, this jet should have more residence time over the area, including during peak heating. To the east of an upper low over GA/SC, a mid-level dryslot has overspread the eastern Carolinas, which has helped transition the rainfall across the area from moderate stratiform rain to more showery rain. I suspect the more showery nature of the rain will continue for much of the day, and this will help to lower rainfall rates for most. As the upper low begins to pivot northeast over the area, an area of heavier deformation band precip may move back into the area, with rates going back up. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Guidance appears to be split between 2 camps regarding the track of the coastal low tonight. The global guidance suggests the low will stall near ENC, then shift back to the SW before getting kicked east on Monday. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance suggests the low will continue to move slowly north up the coast from NC to VA. Scenario 1 would tend to favor decreasing winds tonight, while scenario 2 would favor a continuation of stronger winds through tonight, especially along the OBX. Hi-res guidance appeared to handle the track of the last coastal low fairly well, and we are leaning that direction with the forecast for tonight. While winds are expected to remain gusty, it appears that the risk of 45+ mph gusts will decrease, and for the time being, wind headlines are not expected to continue into tonight. Additionally, it appears the rain will remain more showery in nature, which should tend to limit how much additional rainfall falls. This should also help to lower the flash flood risk with time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the track and strength of the weekend coastal low. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through the rest of the period. PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the week as high pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Monday/... As of 730 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, LLWS, and gusty winds through tonight As of this morning, satellite imagery and marine observations suggest the coastal low is about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout, and moving slowly NE. Because of the slow movement, it`s expected that the gusty northeast winds will continue for much of the day today, with peak gusts of 25-40kt common. Closer to the coast, wind gusts of 40-50kt will be possible. The strongest winds should peak today, then begin to decrease some by tonight. However, the latest guidance has trended up with winds tonight, and I`ve adjusted the TAFs to reflect a longer period of gusty winds. Eventually the winds should become more northerly, or even NNW, by tonight. A strong low-level jet overhead should continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts through the day, and potentially into this evening. Like with the winds, I`ve extended the period of LLWS in the TAFs further out in time. Lastly, CIGs for the most part have been struggling to fall below 1100-1300ft, and I`ve since trended the TAFs more optimistic regarding IFR potential. Guidance continues to insist on IFR/LIFR CIGs developing, but so far this hasn`t materialized on a more widespread basis. It may not be until later today or tonight that this potential is realized, if at all. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 930 AM Sun...Have cancelled storm warns and replaced with gales, as worst of the winds occurred last night and early morning. Gales should come down first between C Lookout and Oregon Inlet, as offshore warm front eases westward and brings a lull in the winds, while remaining sounds and waters will cont to see gusty winds of 40 kt or higher remainder of today. Prev disc...As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Storm Warning issued for all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through this afternoon due to a stronger coastal low off the NC coast Winds remain very strong early this morning with a deepening coastal low off the southern NC coast. Winds have gusted 50-60 kts at times early this morning with sustained winds 35-45 kts out of the NNE/NE across most of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. With the low being deeper, and a front to its east lifting slower, it appears very strong NNE/NE flow will continue through the morning hours before winds begin to weaken. As a result, have upgraded much of the marine waters to Storm Warnings, and have Gale Warnings ongoing elsewhere. Exactly when and where winds will weaken remains a difficult question to answer due to the poor forecast guidance, and lack of observations over the open ocean. Best guess is that the system will begin to weaken early this afternoon, however the pressure gradient to the north should remain strong. This will bring weakening winds to southern NC as the low lifts to the northeast along or just off the OBX, and keep strong NE flow over the NOBX through much of the afternoon. Storm/Gale warnings currently end this afternoon, but may need to be extended based on the track and intensity of the low today. Tonight, winds may restrengthen on the backside of the coastal low, likely to 25-35 kts out of the N/NW, but there is potential for winds to be stronger due to the aforementioned uncertainties with this system. Seas will be extremely high the rest of the morning, in the range of 10-20 ft, and then subside to 8-15 ft later today. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week The coastal low will be weakening Monday but still producing marginal Gale conditions for portions of the marine waters. How long Gale conditions last Monday is unclear to the complicated track and intensity forecast of the low. But, conditions should be improving through the day as the low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several days due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 745 AM Sunday... Periods of moderate to heavy rain will remain a risk along the OBX through the day today as a coastal low lifts slowly north along the SC/NC coast, but it appears this will be more scattered in nature. In light of this, the Flood Watch has been allowed to expire. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain on track this morning with a coastal low meandering off the southern NC coast. Main forecast change this morning is an increase in both wind speed and duration this morning into this afternoon, and as a result, slightly higher water levels/inundation is expected. The highest concern will be along oceanside areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (3-5 ft AGL) with this afternoon`s (~12 pm) high tide. This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to 2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds across the Pamlico Sound this morning. Along and adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible today. Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions) persist due to a strong pressure gradient. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ046-047. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ196-204-205. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-135-137- 150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ136. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1248130 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 748 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal low will continue to impact the area into early this week, producing multiple hazards, especially along the coast. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 745 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with multiple hazards through tonight - High Wind Warning now in effect for the OBX Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, the coastal low appears to be about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout as of this morning. The low is moving slowly north. In general, guidance is in good agreement bringing the low north towards the NC coastline during the day today. Based on this track, strong northeasterly winds are expected to continue for much of the day. Based on the latest guidance trends, it appears the risk of strong winds will now last longer, and potentially over a larger area. It appears there will be two areas of enhanced wind potential. The first will be right along a warm front which stretches SW to NE from the low to just off the OBX. This front should help to focus the greatest thunderstorm potential, as well as a locally higher pressure gradient, both of which should act to support 50-60 mph wind gusts at times. This area looks to be focused from Cape Lookout north, and a High Wind Warning is now in effect from Downeast Carteret County through the NRN OBX. A second area of enhanced winds could develop with daytime heating today, where even shallow mixing could support some 40-50 mph wind gusts beneath the strong, 50kt northeasterly LLJ over the area. Given the slower nature of the low, this jet should have more residence time over the area, including during peak heating. To the east of an upper low over GA/SC, a mid-level dryslot has overspread the eastern Carolinas, which has helped transition the rainfall across the area from moderate stratiform rain to more showery rain. I suspect the more showery nature of the rain will continue for much of the day, and this will help to lower rainfall rates for most. As the upper low begins to pivot northeast over the area, an area of heavier deformation band precip may move back into the area, with rates going back up. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Guidance appears to be split between 2 camps regarding the track of the coastal low tonight. The global guidance suggests the low will stall near ENC, then shift back to the SW before getting kicked east on Monday. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance suggests the low will continue to move slowly north up the coast from NC to VA. Scenario 1 would tend to favor decreasing winds tonight, while scenario 2 would favor a continuation of stronger winds through tonight, especially along the OBX. Hi-res guidance appeared to handle the track of the last coastal low fairly well, and we are leaning that direction with the forecast for tonight. While winds are expected to remain gusty, it appears that the risk of 45+ mph gusts will decrease, and for the time being, wind headlines are not expected to continue into tonight. Additionally, it appears the rain will remain more showery in nature, which should tend to limit how much additional rainfall falls. This should also help to lower the flash flood risk with time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the track and strength of the weekend coastal low. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through the rest of the period. PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the week as high pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Monday/... As of 730 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, LLWS, and gusty winds through tonight As of this morning, satellite imagery and marine observations suggest the coastal low is about 110 miles SW of Cape Lookout, and moving slowly NE. Because of the slow movement, it`s expected that the gusty northeast winds will continue for much of the day today, with peak gusts of 25-40kt common. Closer to the coast, wind gusts of 40-50kt will be possible. The strongest winds should peak today, then begin to decrease some by tonight. However, the latest guidance has trended up with winds tonight, and I`ve adjusted the TAFs to reflect a longer period of gusty winds. Eventually the winds should become more northerly, or even NNW, by tonight. A strong low-level jet overhead should continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts through the day, and potentially into this evening. Like with the winds, I`ve extended the period of LLWS in the TAFs further out in time. Lastly, CIGs for the most part have been struggling to fall below 1100-1300ft, and I`ve since trended the TAFs more optimistic regarding IFR potential. Guidance continues to insist on IFR/LIFR CIGs developing, but so far this hasn`t materialized on a more widespread basis. It may not be until later today or tonight that this potential is realized, if at all. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Storm Warning issued for all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through this afternoon due to a stronger coastal low off the NC coast Winds remain very strong early this morning with a deepening coastal low off the southern NC coast. Winds have gusted 50-60 kts at times early this morning with sustained winds 35-45 kts out of the NNE/NE across most of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. With the low being deeper, and a front to its east lifting slower, it appears very strong NNE/NE flow will continue through the morning hours before winds begin to weaken. As a result, have upgraded much of the marine waters to Storm Warnings, and have Gale Warnings ongoing elsewhere. Exactly when and where winds will weaken remains a difficult question to answer due to the poor forecast guidance, and lack of observations over the open ocean. Best guess is that the system will begin to weaken early this afternoon, however the pressure gradient to the north should remain strong. This will bring weakening winds to southern NC as the low lifts to the northeast along or just off the OBX, and keep strong NE flow over the NOBX through much of the afternoon. Storm/Gale warnings currently end this afternoon, but may need to be extended based on the track and intensity of the low today. Tonight, winds may restrengthen on the backside of the coastal low, likely to 25-35 kts out of the N/NW, but there is potential for winds to be stronger due to the aforementioned uncertainties with this system. Seas will be extremely high the rest of the morning, in the range of 10-20 ft, and then subside to 8-15 ft later today. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week The coastal low will be weakening Monday but still producing marginal Gale conditions for portions of the marine waters. How long Gale conditions last Monday is unclear to the complicated track and intensity forecast of the low. But, conditions should be improving through the day as the low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several days due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 745 AM Sunday... Periods of moderate to heavy rain will remain a risk along the OBX through the day today as a coastal low lifts slowly north along the SC/NC coast, but it appears this will be more scattered in nature. In light of this, the Flood Watch has been allowed to expire. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain on track this morning with a coastal low meandering off the southern NC coast. Main forecast change this morning is an increase in both wind speed and duration this morning into this afternoon, and as a result, slightly higher water levels/inundation is expected. The highest concern will be along oceanside areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (3-5 ft AGL) with this afternoon`s (~12 pm) high tide. This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to 2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds across the Pamlico Sound this morning. Along and adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible today. Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions) persist due to a strong pressure gradient. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ046-047. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080. Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ081-094-194-195. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for NCZ196-204-205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231. Storm Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ135-154-156-158. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ136. Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-152. && $$ |
| #1248112 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal low will continue to impact the area into early next week, producing multiple hazards, especially along the coast. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with multiple hazards through tonight - High Wind Warning now in effect for the OBX Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, the coastal low appears to be about 160 miles SW of Cape Lookout as of early this morning. The low is moving slowly north. In general, guidance is in good agreement bringing the low north towards the NC coastline during the day today. Based on this track, strong northeasterly winds are expected to continue for much of the day. Based on the latest guidance trends, it appears the risk of strong winds will now last longer, and potentially over a larger area. It appears there will be two areas of enhanced wind potential. The first will be right along a warm front which stretches SW to NE from the low to just off the OBX. This front should help to focus the greatest thunderstorm potential, as well as a locally higher pressure gradient, both of which should act to support 50-60 mph wind gusts at times. This area looks to be focused from Cape Lookout north, and a High Wind Warning is now in effect from Downeast Carteret County through the NRN OBX. A second area of enhanced winds could develop with daytime heating today, where even shallow mixing could support some 40-50 mph wind gusts beneath the strong, 50kt northeasterly LLJ over the area. Given the slower nature of the low, this jet should have more residence time over the area, including during peak heating. To the east of an upper low over GA/SC, a mid-level dryslot has overspread the eastern Carolinas, which has helped transition the rainfall across the area from moderate stratiform rain to more showery rain. I suspect the more showery nature of the rain will continue for much of the day, and this will help to lower rainfall rates for most. As the upper low begins to pivot northeast over the area, an area of heavier deformation band precip may move back into the area, with rates going back up. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Guidance appears to be split between 2 camps regarding the track of the coastal low tonight. The global guidance suggests the low will stall near ENC, then shift back to the SW before getting kicked east on Monday. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance suggests the low will continue to move slowly north up the coast from NC to VA. Scenario 1 would tend to favor decreasing winds tonight, while scenario 2 would favor a continuation of stronger winds through tonight, especially along the OBX. Hi-res guidance appeared to handle the track of the last coastal low fairly well, and we are leaning that direction with the forecast for tonight. While winds are expected to remain gusty, it appears that the risk of 45+ mph gusts will decrease, and for the time being, wind headlines are not expected to continue into tonight. Additionally, it appears the rain will remain more showery in nature, which should tend to limit how much additional rainfall falls. This should also help to lower the flash flood risk with time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the track and strength of the weekend coastal low. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through the rest of the period. PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the week as high pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Monday/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to bring widespread IFR, or lower, CIGs, gusty winds, and LLWS to ENC Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, a coastal low is currently about 160 miles SW of Cape Lookout, and is currently moving NE at around 20kt. Guidance suggests the low will continue on this motion through the day Sunday, potentially reaching ENC by Sunday evening. This track favors a continuation of gusty NE winds for all terminals, potentially into Sunday night. Gusts of 25-35kt will be common inland, with gusts of 40-50kt expected along the coast. Within the northeasterly flow around the low, low-level moisture and lift will support widespread low clouds and SHRA. CIGs have stubbornly stayed at MVFR of late, but guidance continues to insist on CIGs falling into the IFR/LIFR range overnight and then continuing into Sunday. I`ve adjusted the TAFs to reflect the slower onset of IFR conditions. While a TSRA risk remains, the probability appears LOW (<20%) through Sunday evening. A strong northeasterly low-level jet above the surface will continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts overnight and into Sunday. It appears that the risk will shift NW with time, but may linger most of the day Sunday from KISO to KPGV. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Storm Warning issued for all the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound through this afternoon due to a stronger coastal low off the NC coast Winds remain very strong early this morning with a deepening coastal low off the southern NC coast. Winds have gusted 50-60 kts at times early this morning with sustained winds 35-45 kts out of the NNE/NE across most of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. With the low being deeper, and a front to its east lifting slower, it appears very strong NNE/NE flow will continue through the morning hours before winds begin to weaken. As a result, have upgraded much of the marine waters to Storm Warnings, and have Gale Warnings ongoing elsewhere. Exactly when and where winds will weaken remains a difficult question to answer due to the poor forecast guidance, and lack of observations over the open ocean. Best guess is that the system will begin to weaken early this afternoon, however the pressure gradient to the north should remain strong. This will bring weakening winds to southern NC as the low lifts to the northeast along or just off the OBX, and keep strong NE flow over the NOBX through much of the afternoon. Storm/Gale warnings currently end this afternoon, but may need to be extended based on the track and intensity of the low today. Tonight, winds may restrengthen on the backside of the coastal low, likely to 25-35 kts out of the N/NW, but there is potential for winds to be stronger due to the aforementioned uncertainties with this system. Seas will be extremely high the rest of the morning, in the range of 10-20 ft, and then subside to 8-15 ft later today. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sun... Key Messages - Coastal low and then a tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least mid week The coastal low will be weakening Monday but still producing marginal Gale conditions for portions of the marine waters. How long Gale conditions last Monday is unclear to the complicated track and intensity forecast of the low. But, conditions should be improving through the day as the low moves off to the east. Behind it, a tight pressure gradient will persist for several days due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds will be at least 20-30 kts out of the NW through mid week, and could strengthen to Gale strength at times. Seas will remain elevated and around the range of 6-10 ft, highest north of Hatteras Inlet. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 AM Sunday... Periods of moderate to heavy rain will remain a risk along the OBX through the day today as a coastal low lifts slowly north along the SC/NC coast. After this morning, it appears most of the rain will become more showery in nature, with rainfall rates decreasing. This should allow the flash flood risk to quickly decrease. We`ll let the Flood Watch continue through sunrise, and will likely be able to let that expire at that point. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain on track this morning with a coastal low meandering off the southern NC coast. Main forecast change this morning is an increase in both wind speed and duration this morning into this afternoon, and as a result, slightly higher water levels/inundation is expected. The highest concern will be along oceanside areas of OBX Dare county north of Cape Hatteras where the combination of wind surge, high astronomical tides, and wave run up will lead to the potential for major coastal flooding (3-5 ft AGL) with this afternoon`s (~12 pm) high tide. This includes already vulnerable areas like Buxton, Rodanthe, and Pea Island, but significant overwash impacts could be seen north of Oregon Inlet as well. Moving over to the sounds and inland rivers, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, and Neuse and Bay Rivers. Here up to 2-4 ft AGL of inundation is possible, with several areas seeing the higher end of that range due to persistent very strong winds across the Pamlico Sound this morning. Along and adjacent to Bogue Sound as well as around the Pamlico River, up to 1-2 ft AGL of inundation is possible today. Coastal flooding will continue tonight and into tomorrow to a lesser extent as strong winds (with changing wind directions) persist due to a strong pressure gradient. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ046-047. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080. Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ081-094-194-195. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194-196. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196-203>205. High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for NCZ196-204-205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231. Storm Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ135-154-156-158. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ136. Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-152. && $$ |
| #1248105 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 238 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal low will continue to impact the area into early next week, producing multiple hazards, especially along the coast. High pressure finally begins to move back in by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with multiple hazards through tonight - High Wind Warning now in effect for the OBX Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, the coastal low appears to be about 160 miles SW of Cape Lookout as of early this morning. The low is moving slowly north. In general, guidance is in good agreement bringing the low north towards the NC coastline during the day today. Based on this track, strong northeasterly winds are expected to continue for much of the day. Based on the latest guidance trends, it appears the risk of strong winds will now last longer, and potentially over a larger area. It appears there will be two areas of enhanced wind potential. The first will be right along a warm front which stretches SW to NE from the low to just off the OBX. This front should help to focus the greatest thunderstorm potential, as well as a locally higher pressure gradient, both of which should act to support 50-60 mph wind gusts at times. This area looks to be focused from Cape Lookout north, and a High Wind Warning is now in effect from Downeast Carteret County through the NRN OBX. A second area of enhanced winds could develop with daytime heating today, where even shallow mixing could support some 40-50 mph wind gusts beneath the strong, 50kt northeasterly LLJ over the area. Given the slower nature of the low, this jet should have more residence time over the area, including during peak heating. To the east of an upper low over GA/SC, a mid-level dryslot has overspread the eastern Carolinas, which has helped transition the rainfall across the area from moderate stratiform rain to more showery rain. I suspect the more showery nature of the rain will continue for much of the day, and this will help to lower rainfall rates for most. As the upper low begins to pivot northeast over the area, an area of heavier deformation band precip may move back into the area, with rates going back up. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Guidance appears to be split between 2 camps regarding the track of the coastal low tonight. The global guidance suggests the low will stall near ENC, then shift back to the SW before getting kicked east on Monday. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance suggests the low will continue to move slowly north up the coast from NC to VA. Scenario 1 would tend to favor decreasing winds tonight, while scenario 2 would favor a continuation of stronger winds through tonight, especially along the OBX. Hi-res guidance appeared to handle the track of the last coastal low fairly well, and we are leaning that direction with the forecast for tonight. While winds are expected to remain gusty, it appears that the risk of 45+ mph gusts will decrease, and for the time being, wind headlines are not expected to continue into tonight. Additionally, it appears the rain will remain more showery in nature, which should tend to limit how much additional rainfall falls. This should also help to lower the flash flood risk with time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the track and strength of the weekend coastal low. Winds will grad back to the NNW by Monday and remain so through the rest of the period. PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the week as high pressure builds across the Southeast U.S. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Monday/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to bring widespread IFR, or lower, CIGs, gusty winds, and LLWS to ENC Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, a coastal low is currently about 160 miles SW of Cape Lookout, and is currently moving NE at around 20kt. Guidance suggests the low will continue on this motion through the day Sunday, potentially reaching ENC by Sunday evening. This track favors a continuation of gusty NE winds for all terminals, potentially into Sunday night. Gusts of 25-35kt will be common inland, with gusts of 40-50kt expected along the coast. Within the northeasterly flow around the low, low-level moisture and lift will support widespread low clouds and SHRA. CIGs have stubbornly stayed at MVFR of late, but guidance continues to insist on CIGs falling into the IFR/LIFR range overnight and then continuing into Sunday. I`ve adjusted the TAFs to reflect the slower onset of IFR conditions. While a TSRA risk remains, the probability appears LOW (<20%) through Sunday evening. A strong northeasterly low-level jet above the surface will continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts overnight and into Sunday. It appears that the risk will shift NW with time, but may linger most of the day Sunday from KISO to KPGV. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 PM Sat...Have extended gale warnings through the day Sun and into early Sun evening. Gale warnings cont for all waters except Pamlico River, where any gales will be fairly brief tonight. It should be noted that there continues to be a cluster of guidance showing storm- force gusts, especially over the warmer waters south of Cape Hatteras, however probability guidance from the 11/12Z ECM still hovers around 40-60% for gusts greater than 50kt occurring, so opted to not issue any storm warning products here at this time. Most of the waters are now expected to remain under northerly flow, as track of low should remain off the coast. This will put most of ENC under stable flow regime, but areas near the Gulf Stream will have to be watched for some convection to migrate into the coastal waters and a low end threat for waterspouts. Have expanded the gales through the day Sunday with the low remaining offshore with recent model guidance and therefore remaining under tightened pres gradient. For the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Duck, seas are expected to top out in the 11-16 ft range at 10-12 seconds. South of Cape Lookout, seas of 7-12 ft are expected. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 315 PM Sat... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact the ENC waters into early next week with hazardous winds and seas Still some uncertainty in the track of complex low pressure system that will continue to impact the waters into early next week. However, confidence is high that strong winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue. Gale Warnings continue for most waters into Sunday evening to capture the coastal low`s impacts. Eventually, a more dominant northwesterly flow is expected to develop early next week, with gusts of 25-35 kt continuing. Seas will peak at 10-15 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. Conditions will remain hazardous through most of next week with gusty winds and elevated seas. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 AM Sunday... Periods of moderate to heavy rain will remain a risk along the OBX through the day today as a coastal low lifts slowly north along the SC/NC coast. After this morning, it appears most of the rain will become more showery in nature, with rainfall rates decreasing. This should allow the flash flood risk to quickly decrease. We`ll let the Flood Watch continue through sunrise, and will likely be able to let that expire at that point. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 PM Sat... Confidence is high that low pressure will strengthen off the east coast of FL and strengthen as it moves slowly north today. Confidence has decreased regarding the track beyond that point. Some guidance brings it into ENC, while other guidance keeps it offshore. This has a significant impact on the strength and duration of stronger winds, which also factors into what coastal impacts will occur. Confidence remains high regarding coastal impacts, but specific details still have some opportunity for adjustments. Have upgraded to CF Warnings for the Northern Outer Banks, and southern Craven and Downeast Carteret counties, with potential for more moderate impacts. Some minor impacts will be possible for areas adj to the southern Albemarle Sound. Coastal flood products remain in effect with a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Crystal Coast, and areas adj to the Pamlico/Pungo Rvr...with CF Warnings for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. This will especially be the case for the more vulnerable areas that have been impacted the greatest by multiple storms over the past 1-2 months. Portions of NC-12 on Ocracoke Island already closed due to ocean overwash. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from Duck to Cape Lookout. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ046-047. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080-094- 195-199. Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ081-094-194-195. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ194- 196. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-204. High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for NCZ196-204-205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203-205. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231. Storm Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ135-154-156-158. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ136. Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-152. && $$ |
| #1248101 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 12.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 152 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal low will impact the area this weekend into early next week, producing multiple hazards, especially along the coast. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sat Key Messages: - Wind advisory expanded to many counties adjacent to coastal locales - Coastal flood warnings expanded for areas adjacent to the lower Neuse River A tricky forecast continues with respect to positioning of low that will move up the coast and be located off the NC coast on Sunday. Firstly, area of light to ocnl moderate stratiform rain shield has expanded to encompass all of ENC this afternoon. This in response to initial area of isentropic upglide. Pressure response to the south of ENC evident in inc winds off the SC waters, with gusts approaching 45 kt at Frying Pan Tower. Intense pressure falls expected this evening as the low off the GA/SC coast lifts north and deepens. This is when winds will be at their strongest, first along the Crystal Coast and srn OBX, then expanding northward later this evening. Have expanded wind advisories to areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound, as well as Albemarle sound to the north. Communities with a favorable exposure to the strong northeast winds off the water will experience wind gusts up to 50 mph, with locally higher winds on the OBX south of Oregon Inlet and Cedar Island, where local wind gusts may peak 55-60 mph. Because of the brief duration of these very high wind possibilities, have opted out of a high wind warn at this time. These high winds this evening have prompted an upgrade to coastal flood warnings for some counties adjacent to the lower Neuse (see coastal flood section below). Rainfall has remained steady since last fcst, and no changes to flood watch, with 3-6" along the immediate coast, with lesser amounts inland from there. Threat for thunder has gone down, but with strong vorticity advection developing tonight, periods of heavy rain showers in embedded elevated thunder are expected, esp E of Hwy 17. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sat...The aforementioned low position tomorrow is still somewhat in question, but some headway in model guidance confluence continues. The convective-allowing models are taking the low inland across ENC, but all other guidance (GFS/EC/ICON/GEM_Reg) bring the low to a griding halt off of Cape Fear. This is in response to double barreled upper low developing over the East Coast tomorrow, with parent low dropping south out of the Great Lakes, while secondary low pushes eastward from the southern Appalachians. These two systems will evolve off the coast through Monday, and spur secondary cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic, pulling the low off the NC coast late Sun into Mon. The consensus is for all of ENC to now remain under nerly flow, and therefore a stronger wind field to cont through the day tomorrow. Have inc winds as a result, with advisory or near advisory winds cont through much of the day. Where gradient is strongest, acrs the nern zones, have cont the wind advisory through the day. Remainder of the coastal counties will have to be watched for a continuation of the wind headlines if later forecasts come up higher with winds. Slgt chc thunder in the morning will become less than 10% through the afternoon, so have removed any thunder mention second half of the day. Periods of rain or showers will cont throughout the day as upper low pivots through and sfc low meanders off the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Sat... Key Messages: - Impactful coastal low to bring heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding, and trecherous surf and marine conditions through early next week - Drier weather returns Tuesday Sunday night - Saturday... The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the track and strength of the coastal low. Winds will grad back to the NNW Sunday night and remain so through the rest of the period. PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the week as high pressure builds across the southeast. Tuesday will start a period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through the end of next week. Coastal flooding impacts are expected to continue even after the low pulls away from our coast (see the Coastal Flooding Section). && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Monday/... As of 145 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Coastal low to bring widespread IFR, or lower, CIGs, gusty winds, and LLWS to ENC Based on satellite imagery and marine observations, a coastal low is currently about 160 miles SW of Cape Lookout, and is currently moving NE at around 20kt. Guidance suggests the low will continue on this motion through the day Sunday, potentially reaching ENC by Sunday evening. This track favors a continuation of gusty NE winds for all terminals, potentially into Sunday night. Gusts of 25-35kt will be common inland, with gusts of 40-50kt expected along the coast. Within the northeasterly flow around the low, low-level moisture and lift will support widespread low clouds and SHRA. CIGs have stubbornly stayed at MVFR of late, but guidance continues to insist on CIGs falling into the IFR/LIFR range overnight and then continuing into Sunday. I`ve adjusted the TAFs to reflect the slower onset of IFR conditions. While a TSRA risk remains, the probability appears LOW (<20%) through Sunday evening. A strong northeasterly low-level jet above the surface will continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts overnight and into Sunday. It appears that the risk will shift NW with time, but may linger most of the day Sunday from KISO to KPGV. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 PM Sat...Have extended gale warnings through the day Sun and into early Sun evening. Gale warnings cont for all waters except Pamlico River, where any gales will be fairly brief tonight. It should be noted that there continues to be a cluster of guidance showing storm- force gusts, especially over the warmer waters south of Cape Hatteras, however probability guidance from the 11/12Z ECM still hovers around 40-60% for gusts greater than 50kt occurring, so opted to not issue any storm warning products here at this time. Most of the waters are now expected to remain under northerly flow, as track of low should remain off the coast. This will put most of ENC under stable flow regime, but areas near the Gulf Stream will have to be watched for some convection to migrate into the coastal waters and a low end threat for waterspouts. Have expanded the gales through the day Sunday with the low remaining offshore with recent model guidance and therefore remaining under tightened pres gradient. For the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Duck, seas are expected to top out in the 11-16 ft range at 10-12 seconds. South of Cape Lookout, seas of 7-12 ft are expected. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 315 PM Sat... Key Messages - Coastal low to continue to impact the ENC waters into early next week with hazardous winds and seas Still some uncertainty in the track of complex low pressure system that will continue to impact the waters into early next week. However, confidence is high that strong winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue. Gale Warnings continue for most waters into Sunday evening to capture the coastal low`s impacts. Eventually, a more dominant northwesterly flow is expected to develop early next week, with gusts of 25-35 kt continuing. Seas will peak at 10-15 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. Conditions will remain hazardous through most of next week with gusty winds and elevated seas. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 8 PM Sat...Rain will be moderate to heavy at times through tonight as a coastal low approaches and moves through the region. PWATs around 2" and ample forcing ahead of and near the low pressure system should support scattered to widespread heavy showers moving south to north. Best chances are along the coast, east of HWY 17. Portions of the coast are expected to see 4-6"+ inches where forcing and moisture is the greatest. While showers should be progressive in nature, training showers would be the main concern when it comes to flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret County until 8 AM Sunday. As you go further inland, moisture and forcing decrease, which should keep showers more widespread with less impressive rain rates. Additionally, the coastal plain is experiencing more significant drought conditions, which will help reduce the threat for flash flooding in this area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 PM Sat... Confidence is high that low pressure will strengthen off the east coast of FL and strengthen as it moves slowly north today. Confidence has decreased regarding the track beyond that point. Some guidance brings it into ENC, while other guidance keeps it offshore. This has a significant impact on the strength and duration of stronger winds, which also factors into what coastal impacts will occur. Confidence remains high regarding coastal impacts, but specific details still have some opportunity for adjustments. Have upgraded to CF Warnings for the Northern Outer Banks, and southern Craven and Downeast Carteret counties, with potential for more moderate impacts. Some minor impacts will be possible for areas adj to the southern Albemarle Sound. Coastal flood products remain in effect with a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Crystal Coast, and areas adj to the Pamlico/Pungo Rvr...with CF Warnings for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. This will especially be the case for the more vulnerable areas that have been impacted the greatest by multiple storms over the past 1-2 months. Portions of NC-12 on Ocracoke Island already closed due to ocean overwash. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from Duck to Cape Lookout. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ046-047. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080-094- 195-199. Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ081-094-194-195. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ194- 196. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-204. High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for NCZ196-204-205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203-205. High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231. Storm Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ135-154-156-158. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ136. Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-152. && $$ |
