Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1252900 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 543 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore early this morning. A reinforcing shot of cold air then moves through tonight into Friday morning. High pressure builds in late Friday into Saturday, then moves offshore on Sunday. A coastal low is then possible early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Key Messages - The coldest air of the season moves in over the next couple of days A post-frontal airmass will settle in across ENC today, leading to noticeably colder and drier conditions for Thanksgiving. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out around 15-20 degrees colder than yesterday. Late today and into tonight, a secondary surge of cold air advection will develop, leading to a bump up in winds, and advecting even colder air into the area. This should support lows falling into the 20s and 30s tonight, with wind chill values in the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Friday will, by far, be the coldest day of the week. With modest CAA continuing into the day, highs will struggle to get out of the 40s. High pressure then settles in at night, leading to decent radiational cooling conditions, with lows in the low to mid 20s inland, and upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast. Across the coastal plain, lows may fall into the upper teens where winds remain the lightest. One caveat for lows Friday night is that there may still be just enough of a gradient to prevent complete decoupling, especially along/east of HWY 17. Additionally, high clouds moving in may offset radiational cooling effects some. Regardless, it will be well below normal. Cold, below normal temperatures continue into Saturday, with highs still struggling to get out of the 40s, and lows falling into the 20s and 30s. Increasing cloudcover should prevent lows from getting as cold Saturday night as what is expected for Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Key Messages - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall early next week As we move into next week, attention will turn to a pattern change across the U.S. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is forecast to develop across the western/central U.S., putting the eastern U.S. in a more active, southwesterly flow regime. 18z/00z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the overall synoptic pattern next week. The main point of difference still centers around the potential development of a coastal low in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. The latest suite of guidance is now honing in on a 1005- 1010mb SFC low tracking northeast from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic region during this time. In general, a notable percentage of deterministic and machine learning guidance have trended deeper with this low. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance has stayed fairly consistent from run-to-run (ie. not yet showing a deeper trend). There is plenty of time to iron out the details, but the deeper, and more consistent, trend is notable. Based on all of the above, confidence continues to steadily increase regarding the potential for widespread, meaningful precipitation, with ensemble guidance now showing a 40-60% chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain across all of ENC. Temperatures next week will be highly dependent on the track of the coastal low. A track near or just offshore (currently favored by guidance) would lead to colder temperatures and a cold rain. A track further inland (currently not as favored), would lead to warmer air and a risk of thunderstorms. In the wake of the low, dry and cooler air looks to settle back into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 540 AM Thursday... Key Messages: -VFR through the TAF period, with gusty NW winds Thursday (~15 kts) and Friday (~20 kts) afternoons VFR flight cats through the TAF period with NW winds moving over the region in the wake of a cold front. Obs reporting SKC with just thin upper level cloud coverage in place. VFR flight cats prevail through Thanksgiving, NWerly winds 5-10kt with G15-20kt during peak heating and FEW to SCT upper level clouds. Thursday night VFR conditions continue, winds lessen to around 5 kts, and skies remain generally clear. Fri through Sat...Mainly VFR with dry and cold high pres overhead through early weekend. Bouts of gusty nwrly winds due to strong CAA Fri afternoon. Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond developing. && .MARINE... As of 130 AM Thursday... Key Messages - Periods of elevated winds and seas to continue through Friday Moderate westerly winds of 15-25kt will quickly become northwesterly early this morning as a cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for portions of the ENC waters where the risk of 25kt wind gusts is this highest. Additional headlines are likely to be needed for a second surge of northwesterly winds that are expected tonight into Friday morning. Seas of 3-6ft early this morning will lay down to 2-4 ft by this afternoon. Seas will then rebuild tonight into Friday morning as the next surge of NW winds arrives, leading to seas peaking at 4-6 ft once again. Outlook: The lightest winds of the holiday weekend are expected Saturday and Sunday (5-15kt). During this time, seas of 2-3 ft are expected. Attention then turns to early next week as guidance continues to show a good signal for a coastal low to impact the area. It`s still several days away, but stay tuned as we refine what the impact to mariners will be. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday late morning to evening with gusty winds and low relative humidities. Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe drought conditions with a long duration of little to no rainfall. Behind the cold front early this morning, dry air ushers into the region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 25-35% range Thursday and Friday afternoon. In addition, wind gusts will be near 20 mph Thursday, and 20-25 mph Friday. Considering the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather concerns, moreso Friday than Thursday given the higher winds. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ154- 156-158. && $$ |
| #1252890 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 130 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore early this morning. A reinforcing shot of cold air then moves through tonight into Friday morning. High pressure builds in late Friday into Saturday, then moves offshore on Sunday. A coastal low is then possible early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Key Messages - The coldest air of the season moves in over the next couple of days A post-frontal airmass will settle in across ENC today, leading to noticeably colder and drier conditions for Thanksgiving. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out around 15-20 degrees colder than yesterday. Late today and into tonight, a secondary surge of cold air advection will develop, leading to a bump up in winds, and advecting even colder air into the area. This should support lows falling into the 20s and 30s tonight, with wind chill values in the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Friday will, by far, be the coldest day of the week. With modest CAA continuing into the day, highs will struggle to get out of the 40s. High pressure then settles in at night, leading to decent radiational cooling conditions, with lows in the low to mid 20s inland, and upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast. Across the coastal plain, lows may fall into the upper teens where winds remain the lightest. One caveat for lows Friday night is that there may still be just enough of a gradient to prevent complete decoupling, especially along/east of HWY 17. Additionally, high clouds moving in may offset radiational cooling effects some. Regardless, it will be well below normal. Cold, below normal temperatures continue into Saturday, with highs still struggling to get out of the 40s, and lows falling into the 20s and 30s. Increasing cloudcover should prevent lows from getting as cold Saturday night as what is expected for Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Key Messages - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall early next week As we move into next week, attention will turn to a pattern change across the U.S. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is forecast to develop across the western/central U.S., putting the eastern U.S. in a more active, southwesterly flow regime. 18z/00z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the overall synoptic pattern next week. The main point of difference still centers around the potential development of a coastal low in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. The latest suite of guidance is now honing in on a 1005- 1010mb SFC low tracking northeast from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic region during this time. In general, a notable percentage of deterministic and machine learning guidance have trended deeper with this low. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance has stayed fairly consistent from run-to-run (ie. not yet showing a deeper trend). There is plenty of time to iron out the details, but the deeper, and more consistent, trend is notable. Based on all of the above, confidence continues to steadily increase regarding the potential for widespread, meaningful precipitation, with ensemble guidance now showing a 40-60% chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain across all of ENC. Temperatures next week will be highly dependent on the track of the coastal low. A track near or just offshore (currently favored by guidance) would lead to colder temperatures and a cold rain. A track further inland (currently not as favored), would lead to warmer air and a risk of thunderstorms. In the wake of the low, dry and cooler air looks to settle back into the region. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 AM Thursday... Key Messages: -VFR through the TAF period, with gusty NW winds Thursday (~15 kts) and Friday (~20 kts) afternoons VFR flight cats through the TAF period with NW winds moving over the region in the wake of a cold front. Obs reporting SKC with just thin upper level cloud coverage in place. VFR flight cats prevail through Thanksgiving, NWerly winds 5-10kt with G15-20kt during peak heating and FEW to SCT upper level clouds. Thursday night VFR conditions continue, winds lessen to around 5 kts, and skies remain generally clear. Fri through Sat...Mainly VFR with dry and cold high pres overhead through early weekend. Bouts of gusty nwrly winds due to strong CAA Fri afternoon. Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond developing. && .MARINE... As of 130 AM Thursday... Key Messages - Periods of elevated winds and seas to continue through Friday Moderate westerly winds of 15-25kt will quickly become northwesterly early this morning as a cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for portions of the ENC waters where the risk of 25kt wind gusts is this highest. Additional headlines are likely to be needed for a second surge of northwesterly winds that are expected tonight into Friday morning. Seas of 3-6ft early this morning will lay down to 2-4 ft by this afternoon. Seas will then rebuild tonight into Friday morning as the next surge of NW winds arrives, leading to seas peaking at 4-6 ft once again. Outlook: The lightest winds of the holiday weekend are expected Saturday and Sunday (5-15kt). During this time, seas of 2-3 ft are expected. Attention then turns to early next week as guidance continues to show a good signal for a coastal low to impact the area. It`s still several days away, but stay tuned as we refine what the impact to mariners will be. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday late morning to evening with gusty winds and low relative humidities. Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe drought conditions with a long duration of little to no rainfall. Behind the cold front early this morning, dry air ushers into the region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 25-35% range Thursday and Friday afternoon. In addition, wind gusts will be near 20 mph Thursday, and 20-25 mph Friday. Considering the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather concerns, moreso Friday than Thursday given the higher winds. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1252885 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 27.Nov.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front will be followed up by a reinforcing cold front late Thanksgiving. High pressure then builds in over the weekend. High pressure shifts offshore early next week, giving way to a potentially more robust frontal system and rainmaker. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 2205 Wednesday...No major changes, only minor T/Td adjustments and some blending of rapid refresh HiRes guidance to capture timing of FROPA. Front currently moving Eward almost directly over I95 at the time of writing. Previous Disco...As of 220 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - No hazardous weather expected as pattern turns cooler Amplified pattern in place across the CONUS this afternoon with strong closed low swirling over the Great Lakes and broad troughing in place over the eastern half the country, while over the rest ridging continues to expand. At the surface, respectably strong low pressure (~993 mb) is occluding over the western Great Lakes while secondary low is lifting towards the Delmarva Peninsula, dragging a cold front across the Carolinas and southeast. This cold front was supposed to be the focus of some showers and a low risk of a thunderstorm, but with very weak forcing and dry antecedent conditions, this activity has now completely fizzled out per satellite and radar trends. The only impact from this activity appears to be an enhancement of wind gusts likely due to evaporative cooling. New Bern is currently experiencing this, having reported an earlier gust of 34 kt at the airfield. This risk will continue for a few more hours while insolation is maximized. After hitting the mid to upper The rest of this afternoon and tonight will see further clearing as CAA and dry in fills in behind this first front. Winds will remain elevated overnight, especially across OBX where gusts up to 25-30 mph are likely, as temperatures steadily march downward into the upper 30s to low 40s inland, mid 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - No hazardous weather expected Continued clear and cool weather expected for Thanksgiving as cold front pushes further offshore and new airmass establishes itself over the Carolinas. Highs will only reach into the low to mid 50s, with less gusty northwesterly winds inland but still some gusts to 20-25 mph along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - Very cold Fri night forecast after Thanksgiving with lows in the 20s - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall next week Widespread freezing temps are expected Thanksgiving night, but coldest portion of the airmass is expected to be overhead Friday and Friday night as 850mb temps fall to nearly 15 degrees below normal. With high pressure overhead Friday night, excellent radiational cooling conditions may allow some inland areas of the coastal plain to fall into the upper teens. The cold airmass from Thanksgiving is expected to begin to moderate over the weekend as southerly return flow develops. This will occur in advance of a positively-tilted upper trough that is forecast to develop from the Southwest U.S. into the Central U.S. Within this regime, medium range guidance shows some significant differences regarding individual shortwaves that are forecast to traverse the Southeast U.S. It`s a pattern worth keeping an eye on as there is a decent signal for coastal low development, especially early to mid next week. This signal shows up in both deterministic and machine learning guidance. This pattern typically carries a higher level of uncertainty, though, as guidance often struggles with the evolution of shortwaves as they eject out of the base of the trough. At face value, the latest signal in deterministic and machine learning guidance suggests an increased risk of meaningful rainfall, and the forecast will reflect this potential. Temperatures are expected to moderate by Sunday, but may then get pulled back down if more persistent northeasterly flow redevelops next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 AM Thursday... Key Messages: -VFR through the TAF period, with gusty NW winds Thursday (~15 kts) and Friday (~20 kts) afternoons VFR flight cats through the TAF period with NW winds moving over the region in the wake of a cold front. Obs reporting SKC with just thin upper level cloud coverage in place. VFR flight cats prevail through Thanksgiving, NWerly winds 5-10kt with G15-20kt during peak heating and FEW to SCT upper level clouds. Thursday night VFR conditions continue, winds lessen to around 5 kts, and skies remain generally clear. Fri through Sat...Mainly VFR with dry and cold high pres overhead through early weekend. Bouts of gusty nwrly winds due to strong CAA Fri afternoon. Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond developing. && .MARINE... As of 1920 Wednesday... Key Messages - Was able to cancel GALE early, SCA in its place - SCA for PamSound was also able to be cancelled early - Elevated winds and seas to last into tonight, and then redevelop Thursday night into Friday Dry FROPA expected tonight, front expected to be outside of all 20NM zones by around 0300-0400est. Regional observations show 10-20kt inside and near- shore waters, but over warmer Gulf Stream enhanced mixing is resulting in winds of around 25 kt with gusts up to the low 30s over warmest waters. Seas have responded, building to 4-8 feet in stronger winds and 3-4 feet elsewhere. FROPA will put an end to the stronger southerly flow. Despite enhanced mixing behind the front, winds aloft are not expected to be as strong, which should limit the risk of 25kt+ winds. With that said, there is a short window of 2-4hrs where SCA wind gusts will exist over bulk of Nern coastal waters, but opted to not issue a new SCA for this zone considering it`s overnight and very short-lived. This has been highlighted in text and radio products as "briefly becoming...and then diminishing to..." Outlook: A reinforcing shot of cold air and enhanced mixing will likely lead to another risk of 25kt winds across much of the ENC waters Thursday night into Friday. Marine headlines are likely to be issued soon for this surge of northwesterly winds. High pressure then builds in over the weekend, leading to lighter winds (5-15kt) and lower seas (2-3ft). The next period for inclement boating weather will be next Tuesday ahead of the next front. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday late morning to evening with gusty winds and low relative humidities. Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe drought conditions with a long duration of little to no rainfall. Behind the cold front early this morning, dry air ushers into the region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 25-35% range Thursday and Friday afternoon. In addition, wind gusts will be near 20 mph Thursday, and 20-25 mph Friday. Considering the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather concerns, moreso Friday than Thursday given the higher winds. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ158. && $$ |
