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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1261034 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 27.Feb.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 341 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Progression of rain in the near term has sped up leading to a longer dry period over the weekend lasting into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Overcast skies with relatively light rain lingering along the coast into Saturday morning before a weak low pushing out to sea can pull moisture away from the area leading to clearing conditions with warming temps for remainder of weekend. 2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall. Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions likely to last into Saturday morning. Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape tonight and Saturday. Next period of likely widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front pushed S of the FA earlier this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Area of heaviest and most widespread rainfall is currently pushing off the coast with some lighter though more scattered precip will remain possible into SAT morning. SAT, the shortwave aloft begins to push offshore which will aid in the further organization of a weak low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward through the day SAT. This low will act to pull clouds and moisture offshore away from the the area through the day SAT and SAT night, which will help dry out the next frontal passage expected SUN night into MON. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of the next front, allowing MaxTs SUN to get into the low 70s under sunny skies. KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s with the low traveling along the boundary passing to the W and N of the FA. Limited coverage of SChc to Chc PoPs late MON and TUE with dry weather mid to late-week. Temps warm in generally Serly flow this period with MaxTs getting into the upper 70s and maybe even 80s FRI. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Light to moderate showers are ongoing east of Highway 17 due to a lingering frontal boundary. The rain and cool northeasterly flow are sustaining widespread sub-VFR conditions with the majority of terminals reporting IFR/LIFR. The rain is expected to move offshore this evening, but IFR/LIFR stratus will hang on through tomorrow morning. Areas of fog are expected to develop late tonight with VIS down to 1-3 SM at times. Some guidance is more aggressive with lower VIS, but light winds may keep us mixed enough to preclude dense fog. Flight cats should improve to MVFR by late morning/early afternoon tomorrow. Outlook: Away from the OBX, conditions should improve to VFR by late Saturday afternoon. Along the OBX, sub-VFR CIGs may linger through the day with fog developing along the NOBX and expanding southwestward through the evening. A cold front will then move through Sunday afternoon or evening, bringing a northerly wind shift and our next chance for sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... NEerly winds 10-15G20kt behind front to the S of area waters. moving through the region. Rain lingering into early SAT until low pressure traveling along the boundary works NEward up the GStream through the day pulling moisture away from the area. Some sea fog possible, most notably over Nern waters overnight into SAT morning. NEerly winds will approach SCA criteria over FAR outer waters Cape to Cape overnight and through much of the day SAT. Would issue SCA if areal coverage coverage or duration were more sustained, but the 25kt gusts are forecast to bounce in and out of the 20nm zones through the near term. Nerly winds weaken to be AoB 10kt SUN before becoming SWerly ahead of the next front the cross area waters SUN night into MON morning. Buoy data show seas generally 3-4ft@5-8sec with some increase overnight into SAT with the winds. Seas fall into SUN becoming 2-3ft before quickly building again. Outlook: Next period of widespread SCA likely SUN night into early next week as strong NEerly surge fills in behind front. NEerly winds 15-25G30KT building seas 6-8ft, 8-9ft over Cape to Cape outer waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261005 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 649 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Overcast skies with rain picking up early morning. 2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall. Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions likely to last into Saturday morning (50-70% chance). Marine...SCA conditions improving this morning. Next period of SCA conditions possible Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front is moving in from the north early this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Main slug of precipitation in ILM`s area moving NE this morning along the slowed down/stalled front once it settles along our southern tier of counties. Along this boundary a weak low is expected to form later today to our south before riding the Gulf Stream. Impacts from this system are expected to be low to none, just bringing some light to moderate rain to the region, best chances along the coast. Precip may linger along the coast and areas offshore through much of Friday and Friday night, but QPF amounts are expected to be low during this time. KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s. Enough spread remains in model guidance on timing that slight chance to chance PoPs were maintained this morning. GFS is trying to show some mixed precip moving into NE NC with this system, but it is seen as an outlier, and a very unlikely outcome. This is due to the known cold bias of the GFS, and the lack of support from other models. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Early this morning, a stalling frontal boundary has set up shop just south of ENC. A cool and moist northeasterly flow north of the front is responsible for the widespread IFR/LIFR conditions ongoing at this time. This setup isn`t expected to change much, if at all, today. In light of this, the expectation is for IFR/LIFR conditions to be the prevailing conditions through the day. There may be occasional rises to low-end MVFR for a time, but any rise like this should be short-lived. Meanwhile, RA is beginning to overspread the area again from the southwest, and this will lead to reduced VIS of 1-3SM at times. Occasionally, VIS <1SM has been reported over the past few hours, but this is not expected to be widespread as obs upstream in the heavier RA are only showing 3-5SM VIS. RA is expected to shift away from the area by this evening. However, low CIGs will remain, and are likely to linger into Saturday morning. Given the very moist low-levels expected in the wake of the RA, a mix of low CIGs and BR/FG is expected. Outlook: Improving aviation conditions are likely by Saturday afternoon. A cold front then moves through Sunday afternoon or evening with a northerly wind shift. Behind the front comes the next chance of sub-VFR conditions associated with the next weather system. This system may also bring the next chance of precipitation. && .MARINE... SW winds are shifting to become northerly 10-15 knots behind a cold front moving through the region. SCA continues over the next 2 hours cape to cape for lingering seas 4-6 ft. NE winds around 15 kt or less will continue on Friday with seas decreasing to around 2-4 ft. Light cool northerly winds over cold SSTs in the northern waters could allow for some sea fog to form. Confidence is low at this point, but will be worth monitoring once the sun rises. Outlook: High pressure ridging into the region from the north gradually weakens Friday night and Saturday with N to NE winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft. Next period of SCA likely Mon and Tuesday in increasing northeasterly flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1260989 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 253 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Overcast skies with rain picking up early morning. 2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall. Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected through Friday, and potentially lasting into Saturday morning. Marine...SCA conditions improving this morning. Next period of SCA conditions possible Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front is moving in from the north early this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Main slug of precipitation in ILM`s area moving NE this morning along the slowed down/stalled front once it settles along our southern tier of counties. Along this boundary a weak low is expected to form later today to our south before riding the Gulf Stream. Impacts from this system are expected to be low to none, just bringing some light to moderate rain to the region, best chances along the coast. Precip may linger along the coast and areas offshore through much of Friday and Friday night, but QPF amounts are expected to be low during this time. KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s. Enough spread remains in model guidance on timing that slight chance to chance PoPs were maintained this morning. GFS is trying to show some mixed precip moving into NE NC with this system, but it is seen as an outlier, and a very unlikely outcome. This is due to the known cold bias of the GFS, and the lack of support from other models. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A slow-moving frontal boundary is forecast to slide south through much, if not all, of ENC overnight, then stall just offshore by Friday morning. Ahead of the front, SHRA and mostly VFR CIGs should then transition to areas of RA/DZ and much lower CIGs. It`s behind the front where the greatest risk of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected, and we`re already seeing this develop just upstream of the area. Once these lower CIGs move in, it`s expected that they will hold well into Friday, and potentially even through Friday night. Occasional reductions to VIS in BR/DZ/RA are expected over the next 24 hours. We`ll also be monitoring the potential for FG development, both overnight and again Friday night. Outlook: Improving aviation conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday morning. A cold front then moves through Sunday afternoon or evening with a northerly wind shift. Behind the front comes the next chance of sub-VFR conditions associated with the next weather system. This system may also bring the next chance of precipitation. && .MARINE... SW winds are shifting to become northerly 10-15 knots behind a cold front moving through the region. SCA continues over the next 2 hours cape to cape for lingering seas 4-6 ft. NE winds around 15 kt or less will continue on Friday with seas decreasing to around 2-4 ft. Light cool northerly winds over cold SSTs in the northern waters could allow for some sea fog to form. Confidence is low at this point, but will be worth monitoring once the sun rises. Outlook: High pressure ridging into the region from the north gradually weakens Friday night and Saturday with N to NE winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft. Next period of SCA likely Mon and Tuesday in increasing northeasterly flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1260978 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 27.Feb.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1254 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Overcast skies with rain ongoing and extending into tonight. 2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing a risk of brief rainfall. Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected through Friday, and potentially lasting into Saturday morning. Marine...SCA conditions until late tonight for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Next period of SCA conditions possible Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC remains in steady southwesterly flow this afternoon with persistent high pressure offshore and cold front associated with Arctic Canadian low pressure extending into the Wern half of the state. Cold front will approach from the west this evening, crossing the area tonight into Friday morning. Main slug of precipitation tonight as main trough axis and surface frontal boundary make their approach. Some limited thunder potential will be confined to near the Gulf Stream, but there is a low risk some convection could graze the Crystal Coast overnight into Friday morning. Heavier precipitation is favored closer the VA border, but odds of at least a quarter inch of rain sit between 80-90% and 50-60% for half an inch, best chances inland. Rain becomes lighter in the overnight, but at least SChc PoPs linger through the day FRI as shortwave trough aloft traverses the FA. Area of weak low pressure travels along the boundary once it gets to our south, pulling moisture away and ending the rain threat through the day SAT. KEY MESSAGE 2...Once the Friday front clears through a few dry days are expected for the weekend as high pressure extends in from the north. The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid-Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s. Enough spread remains in model guidance on timing that chance PoPs were maintained this morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A slow-moving frontal boundary is forecast to slide south through much, if not all, of ENC overnight, then stall just offshore by Friday morning. Ahead of the front, SHRA and mostly VFR CIGs should then transition to areas of RA/DZ and much lower CIGs. It`s behind the front where the greatest risk of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected, and we`re already seeing this develop just upstream of the area. Once these lower CIGs move in, it`s expected that they will hold well into Friday, and potentially even through Friday night. Occasional reductions to VIS in BR/DZ/RA are expected over the next 24 hours. We`ll also be monitoring the potential for FG development, both overnight and again Friday night. Outlook: Improving aviation conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday morning. A cold front then moves through Sunday afternoon or evening with a northerly wind shift. Behind the front comes the next chance of sub-VFR conditions associated with the next weather system. This system may also bring the next chance of precipitation. && .MARINE... SW winds are diminishing across the waters as a cold front approaches the area from the north. Have cancelled the SCA for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet as wind gusts have dropped below 25 kt and seas have subsided to 2-4 ft. Continue the SCA for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet where gusts to 25 kt and seas around 5-8 persist for several more hours, but expect to drop below SCA criteria late tonight as the front slowly pushes south across the waters. NE winds around 15 kt or less will continue on Friday with seas around 2-4 ft. Outlook: High pressure ridging into the region from the north gradually weakens Friday night and Saturday with N to NE winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft. Next period of SCA likely Mon and Tuesday in increasing northeasterly flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for AMZ158. && $$ |
