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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1260592 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 22.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across northern portions of east central Florida this afternoon into the evening hours and again across all of east central Florida on Monday. - Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas will persist through at least Monday night. Gale-force gusts and seas building to 12 feet in the Gulf Stream. - Cold weather returns to east central Florida starting tonight, with the coldest temperatures forecast on Monday night. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for most of east central Florida Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Current-Tonight...A strong cold front will continue moving southward across the Florida peninsula this afternoon, bringing isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms to east central Florida, particularly along the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee through the remainder of this afternoon. The main concerns with any storms that manage to develop will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts to 50 mph. Activity is anticipated to move offshore and diminish into the early evening hours, with strong, gusty northwest winds helping to advect dry air in behind the front from the north. Dewpoints are anticipated to drop rapidly due to the dry air and in combination with the gusty winds, fire weather concerns remain elevated through the evening and overnight hours. Residents and visitors of east central Florida are strongly encouraged to practice fire safety. The advection of a new air mass towards east central Florida brings not only drier conditions, but also colder temperatures. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s areawide, which is well below normal for this time of year. Persistent strong and gusty winds overnight will also produce wind chill values below 30 degrees across much of east central Florida and a COld Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of east central Florida. Residents and visitors are advised to dress appropriately, practice space heater safety, bring pets indoors, and protect sensitive plants. Monday-Tuesday...High pressure will establish itself across the southeastern US, keeping conditions dry locally through early this week. Winds remain breezy and gusty out of the northwest through Monday, with gusts to 25 mph possible at times. This combined with the dry air will maintain critical fire weather conditions through at least Monday. By Tuesday, the high drifts closer to the Florida peninsula and the pressure gradient loosens, causing winds to become lighter around 5 to 10 mph out of the west to northwest. Fire conditions will remain sensitive, even though winds will be lighter. Temperatures will continue to remain cooler than normal, with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s on Monday and in the low 60s on Tuesday. The main concern will continue to be the overnight lows, with the coldest temperatures forecast to occur Monday night into early Tuesday morning. There is increasing confidence that lows will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s areawide, with below freezing temperatures forecast across much of east central Florida. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for most of east central Florida, excluding coastal zones from the Cape southward and all of Martin County. Additionally, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday morning as wind chill values remain in the mid to upper 20s nearly areawide. Tuesday night into Wednesday, temperatures are anticipated to trend a couple degrees warmer, with lows in the low 30s across some rural portions of east central Florida. NBM guidance has a low chance (20-40%) for temperatures falling below freezing on Tuesday night within these locations, so will continue to monitor closely. Elsewhere, temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s. Lighter winds Tuesday night mean that wind chill values will not be nearly as much of a concern, however, this means conditions may be favorable for some frost development. Rural locations continue to be favored for the greatest coverage of frost, but have maintained patchy frost across a good majority of east central Florida. Plan appropriately for the protection of vulnerable and sensitive plants. Wednesday-Saturday...The high pressure will continue drifting towards the Florida peninsula into mid week, eventually shifting offshore. The ridge axis will remain draped across east central Florida, drifting northward and southward and resulting in light and variable winds at times through the extended forecast period. Dry conditions will persist through Wednesday and Thursday, with mid- range model guidance hinting at the next best chance for rain occurring late this week into early weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the Florida peninsula. Stuck with NBM guidance hinting at a 20-50% chance of rain Friday and Saturday, but envision timing will be narrowed down as the guidance comes into better agreement. Temperatures slowly warm through the extended period, returning to near and even slightly above normal values by the end of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will continue moving across the local Atlantic waters this afternoon, sinking south of the area by this evening. Strong and gusty northwest winds are forecast behind the front, which will lead to rapidly building seas and persistent hazardous boating conditions. A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters through 10 AM on Monday, where frequent gusts to 34 knots and greater are forecast. Elsewhere, a Small Craft Advisory will persist through at least Monday night due to winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 12 feet. High pressure slowly drifts towards the local Atlantic waters early this week, with the center moving offshore towards the middle of the week. Winds will gradually subside into Tuesday, allowing seas to diminish late Tuesday. A return of generally favorable boating conditions is anticipated by Wednesday morning, with light winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Low stratus clouds associated with a cold front that is passing through ECFL this afternoon will linger through late afternoon, resulting in MVFR/IFR CIGs lingering this afternoon. Have included TEMPOs for MVFR CIGs for KISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB through 20Z. Scattered lightning storms are ongoing. Have included TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA with MVFR CIGs for TIX- MLB through 19Z and from VRB-SUA through 20Z. Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon with west to southwest winds around 15-20 KT gusting 25-30KT. Skies will become clear with VFR conditions behind the front later this afternoon/evening and will remain VFR/SKC through the rest of the TAF package. Winds will continue to be breezy and gusty overnight, with wind speeds at 12-15KT gusting 18-22KT before increasing once again to 15-20 KT and gusting 20-25 KT by mid Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to develop this afternoon and into the evening hours as RH values tank and winds increase behind a strong cold front. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and northern interior Brevard counties through midnight. A Fire Weather Watch will remain in effect for the rest of Brevard County. Monday, widespread Reg Flag conditions are anticipated across all of east central Florida as RH values fall to 20-30% and northwest winds remain above critical thresholds. Residents and visitors are encouraged to continue practicing safe habits to help prevent fires. Do not burn things in your yard, discard of cigarettes properly, and do not park cars over dry grass. While winds subside by Tuesday, sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to continue through most of this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 36 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 40 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 38 58 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 39 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 38 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 38 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 40 56 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 39 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning until midnight EST tonight for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144-247-347. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547. Fire Weather Watch until midnight EST tonight for FLZ447-547-647- 747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570- 572. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1260576 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 22.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1249 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Scattered, fast-moving showers and isolated storms with today`s cold front will not be nearly enough to dent the worsening drought. - Windy and much drier air will produce critical fire weather conditions this afternoon through Monday. - Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas develop behind the front today and continue through Monday night. Gale-force gusts and seas building to 12 feet in the Gulf Stream. - A blast of dangerously cold wind chills arrives on Monday night. Wind chills in the 20s are anticipated for much of the area. The risk for freezing temperatures and frost have increased early this week, especially over northern areas and the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Today-Tonight...Winter makes a comeback. A strong cold front will sweep across the area today preceded by a band of showers and isolated storms. While chance for measurable rain is high (~60%), rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25" most areas due to fast moving showers. A few storms are possible south of Orlando as better sfc heating allows daytime temps to reach the low to mid 80s. A narrow band of instability with CAPE values around 750 J/kg will support a small chance for deep convection (thunder). Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher in sharply colder and much drier air this afternoon from north to south behind the front. The combination of low RH with wind will produce critical fire weather conditions across north/central sections, hence the Red Flag Warning. This is an unusual situation in that critical fire weather conditions will extend well past sunset. Less confident of Red flag conditions in southern Brevard so have kept them in the Fire Weather Watch in case they need to be upgraded later. Temperatures will fall quickly this eve reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s Mon morning. A persistent NW wind of 10-15 mph and gusty will produce lowest wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for most of EC FL except Treasure coast and south Brevard barrier islands. Mon-Tue...Despite full sunshine Monday, max temps will be 15-20 degrees below normal, only reaching the mid to upper 50s with near 60 in Martin county. Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon combined with very low RH will produce critical fire weather conditions. Confidence was high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Monday. The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed again, this time for most if not all the FA with lows in the 30s and lowest wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s due to a northwest breeze holding near 10 mph. Probability for freezing temperatures near 30/lower 30s is rising (up to 70%) for interior sections (outside of urbanized Orlando corridor) on Monday night/Tue AM so a Freeze Watch has been issued. Less wind Tue as high pressure center approaches over the northern Gulf. Still very chilly but most areas will at least "warm" into the low to mid 60s under full sun. Tue night-Sat...High pressure center will settle over the area Tue night and produce very light to calm wind. Under clear skies, this will produce excellent radiational cooling and another chance for freezing temperatures over the interior in the lower 30s. Elsewhere, these conditions will produce the best chance for frost during this cold outbreak where temps fall into the mid 30s which should encompass much of EC FL. High pressure will push east of the area Wed and developing southerly flow will allow temps to warm back up quickly with max temps in the low to mid 70s Wed and reaching low to mid 80s Fri- Sat. Dry conditions persist with the next chance for showers and storms arriving Friday associated with the next cold front which is currently forecast to stall over north/central Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Deteriorating boating conditions today with hazardous to dangerous conditions through Mon night. A strong cold front will surge across the local Atlc waters today bringing scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front this afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Small Craft Advisories overspread all the waters through the day with a Gale Warning offshore Volusia and Brevard late this afternoon thru tonight for frequent gusts to Gale force (34 knots). The Gale should not need to be extended in time but the SCA will be. Seas will rapidly build to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight and early Mon. Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north wind component will keep a choppy 6-7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream. High pressure will become centered over the FL peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge axis across south FL. Winds quickly develop a S/SW component Wed and into Thu allowing seas to fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream Wed and 2-3 FT all waters Thu. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Low stratus clouds associated with a cold front that is passing through ECFL this afternoon will linger through late afternoon, resulting in MVFR/IFR CIGs lingering this afternoon. Have included TEMPOs for MVFR CIGs for KISM- MCO- SFB- LEE- DAB through 20Z. Scattered lightning storms are ongoing. Have included TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA with MVFR CIGs for TIX- MLB through 19Z and from VRB-SUA through 20Z. Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon with west to southwest winds around 15-20 KT gusting 25-30KT. Skies will become clear with VFR conditions behind the front later this afternoon/evening and will remain VFR/SKC through the rest of the TAF package. Winds will continue to be breezy and gusty overnight, with wind speeds at 12-15KT gusting 18-22KT before increasing once again to 15-20 KT and gusting 20-25 KT by mid Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will cross the area today and bring a chance for showers but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is forecast. Isolated lightning storms will be possible mainly south of Orlando. Northwest winds behind the front will increase 15 mph gusting 25-30 mph and advect much drier air into central Florida. As a result, critically low RH values of 30-35% will develop across northern and central sections late in the day and through this evening. More widespread Red flag conditions will occur Monday with long duration of critical RH values 20-30% and NW winds near 15 mph gusting near 25 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 36 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 40 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 38 58 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 39 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 38 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 38 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 40 56 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 39 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning until midnight EST tonight for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144-247-347. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547. Fire Weather Watch until midnight EST tonight for FLZ447-547-647- 747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570- 572. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1260563 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 648 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Scattered, fast-moving showers and isolated storms with today`s cold front will not be nearly enough to dent the worsening drought. - Windy and much drier air will produce critical fire weather conditions this afternoon through Monday. - Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas develop behind the front today and continue through Monday night. Gale-force gusts and seas building to 12 feet in the Gulf Stream. - A blast of dangerously cold wind chills arrives on Monday night. Wind chills in the 20s are anticipated for much of the area. The risk for freezing temperatures and frost have increased early this week, especially over northern areas and the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Today-Tonight...Winter makes a comeback. A strong cold front will sweep across the area today preceded by a band of showers and isolated storms. While chance for measurable rain is high (~60%), rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25" most areas due to fast moving showers. A few storms are possible south of Orlando as better sfc heating allows daytime temps to reach the low to mid 80s. A narrow band of instability with CAPE values around 750 J/kg will support a small chance for deep convection (thunder). Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher in sharply colder and much drier air this afternoon from north to south behind the front. The combination of low RH with wind will produce critical fire weather conditions across north/central sections, hence the Red Flag Warning. This is an unusual situation in that critical fire weather conditions will extend well past sunset. Less confident of Red flag conditions in southern Brevard so have kept them in the Fire Weather Watch in case they need to be upgraded later. Temperatures will fall quickly this eve reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s Mon morning. A persistent NW wind of 10-15 mph and gusty will produce lowest wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for most of EC FL except Treasure coast and south Brevard barrier islands. Mon-Tue...Despite full sunshine Monday, max temps will be 15-20 degrees below normal, only reaching the mid to upper 50s with near 60 in Martin county. Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon combined with very low RH will produce critical fire weather conditions. Confidence was high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Monday. The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed again, this time for most if not all the FA with lows in the 30s and lowest wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s due to a northwest breeze holding near 10 mph. Probability for freezing temperatures near 30/lower 30s is rising (up to 70%) for interior sections (outside of urbanized Orlando corridor) on Monday night/Tue AM so a Freeze Watch has been issued. Less wind Tue as high pressure center approaches over the northern Gulf. Still very chilly but most areas will at least "warm" into the low to mid 60s under full sun. Tue night-Sat...High pressure center will settle over the area Tue night and produce very light to calm wind. Under clear skies, this will produce excellent radiational cooling and another chance for freezing temperatures over the interior in the lower 30s. Elsewhere, these conditions will produce the best chance for frost during this cold outbreak where temps fall into the mid 30s which should encompass much of EC FL. High pressure will push east of the area Wed and developing southerly flow will allow temps to warm back up quickly with max temps in the low to mid 70s Wed and reaching low to mid 80s Fri- Sat. Dry conditions persist with the next chance for showers and storms arriving Friday associated with the next cold front which is currently forecast to stall over north/central Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Deteriorating boating conditions today with hazardous to dangerous conditions through Mon night. A strong cold front will surge across the local Atlc waters today bringing scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front this afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Small Craft Advisories overspread all the waters through the day with a Gale Warning offshore Volusia and Brevard late this afternoon thru tonight for frequent gusts to Gale force (34 knots). The Gale should not need to be extended in time but the SCA will be. Seas will rapidly build to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight and early Mon. Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north wind component will keep a choppy 6-7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream. High pressure will become centered over the FL peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge axis across south FL. Winds quickly develop a S/SW component Wed and into Thu allowing seas to fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream Wed and 2-3 FT all waters Thu. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 633 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Very messy at ECFL terminals early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Stratus/fog from WCFL producing MVFR-IFR impacts, occasionally down to LIFR, has overspread much of the area and is expected to reach the holdout coastal terminals by 12Z-13Z. Not a great deal of confidence how long impacts will persist. Based on trends, HREF, and HRRR, current fog/stratus impacts forecast to through 15Z, then some improvement to MVFR, but VFR conditions don`t return until the front sweeps everything out. Line of SHRA with embedded TSRA which has reached the northern terminals will also produce MVFR CIGs, and brief VIS reductions in moderate to heavy rainfall, as it pushes south. Becoming windy/gusty ahead of and especially behind the front. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this morning then further increase to 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts while veering northwest behind the front in the late morning and afternoon. Winds settle to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts, occasionally higher in the late evening. Breezy/gusty conditions Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will cross the area today and bring a chance for showers but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is forecast. Isolated lightning storms will be possible mainly south of Orlando. Northwest winds behind the front will increase 15 mph gusting 25-30 mph and advect much drier air into central Florida. As a result, critically low RH values of 30-35% will develop across northern and central sections late in the day and through this evening. More widespread Red flag conditions will occur Monday with long duration of critical RH values 20-30% and NW winds near 15 mph gusting near 25 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 36 55 32 / 60 0 0 0 MCO 77 39 55 34 / 60 0 0 0 MLB 80 40 57 34 / 60 0 0 0 VRB 81 41 59 33 / 60 0 0 0 LEE 74 37 55 31 / 50 0 0 0 SFB 77 37 56 33 / 60 0 0 0 ORL 76 39 56 35 / 60 0 0 0 FPR 83 39 59 31 / 60 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547. Fire Weather Watch from 3 PM EST this afternoon through this evening for FLZ447-547-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570-572. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1260548 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 431 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Scattered, fast-moving showers and isolated storms with today`s cold front will not be nearly enough to dent the worsening drought. - Windy and much drier air will produce critical fire weather conditions this afternoon through Monday. - Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas develop behind the front today and continue through Monday night. Gale-force gusts and seas building to 12 feet in the Gulf Stream. - A blast of dangerously cold wind chills arrives on Monday night. Wind chills in the 20s are anticipated for much of the area. The risk for freezing temperatures and frost have increased early this week, especially over northern areas and the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Today-Tonight...Winter makes a comeback. A strong cold front will sweep across the area today preceded by a band of showers and isolated storms. While chance for measurable rain is high (~60%), rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25" most areas due to fast moving showers. A few storms are possible south of Orlando as better sfc heating allows daytime temps to reach the low to mid 80s. A narrow band of instability with CAPE values around 750 J/kg will support a small chance for deep convection (thunder). Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will usher in sharply colder and much drier air this afternoon from north to south behind the front. The combination of low RH with wind will produce critical fire weather conditions across north/central sections, hence the Red Flag Warning. This is an unusual situation in that critical fire weather conditions will extend well past sunset. Less confident of Red flag conditions in southern Brevard so have kept them in the Fire Weather Watch in case they need to be upgraded later. Temperatures will fall quickly this eve reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s Mon morning. A persistent NW wind of 10-15 mph and gusty will produce lowest wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for most of EC FL except Treasure coast and south Brevard barrier islands. Mon-Tue...Despite full sunshine Monday, max temps will be 15-20 degrees below normal, only reaching the mid to upper 50s with near 60 in Martin county. Breezy NW winds of 15 mph and gusty on Mon combined with very low RH will produce critical fire weather conditions. Confidence was high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Monday. The coldest night will be Mon night when a Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed again, this time for most if not all the FA with lows in the 30s and lowest wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s due to a northwest breeze holding near 10 mph. Probability for freezing temperatures near 30/lower 30s is rising (up to 70%) for interior sections (outside of urbanized Orlando corridor) on Monday night/Tue AM so a Freeze Watch has been issued. Less wind Tue as high pressure center approaches over the northern Gulf. Still very chilly but most areas will at least "warm" into the low to mid 60s under full sun. Tue night-Sat...High pressure center will settle over the area Tue night and produce very light to calm wind. Under clear skies, this will produce excellent radiational cooling and another chance for freezing temperatures over the interior in the lower 30s. Elsewhere, these conditions will produce the best chance for frost during this cold outbreak where temps fall into the mid 30s which should encompass much of EC FL. High pressure will push east of the area Wed and developing southerly flow will allow temps to warm back up quickly with max temps in the low to mid 70s Wed and reaching low to mid 80s Fri- Sat. Dry conditions persist with the next chance for showers and storms arriving Friday associated with the next cold front which is currently forecast to stall over north/central Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Deteriorating boating conditions today with hazardous to dangerous conditions through Mon night. A strong cold front will surge across the local Atlc waters today bringing scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front this afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. Small Craft Advisories overspread all the waters through the day with a Gale Warning offshore Volusia and Brevard late this afternoon thru tonight for frequent gusts to Gale force (34 knots). The Gale should not need to be extended in time but the SCA will be. Seas will rapidly build to 12 FT in the Gulf Stream tonight and early Mon. Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north wind component will keep a choppy 6-7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream. High pressure will become centered over the FL peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge axis across south FL. Winds quickly develop a S/SW component Wed and into Thu allowing seas to fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream Wed and 2-3 FT all waters Thu. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Messy and complicated aviation forecast as a strong cold front approaches ECFL early this morning and pushes through later today. Sent the 06Z TAF package with generally VFR conditions (some MVFR reductions INVOF of the squall line ahead of the front) based on current low probs for IFR-LIFR CIGs early this morning, but satellite imagery shows stratus has started to develop along the WCFL Gulf coast, at least partially supporting HREF guidance which has been the most aggressive with impacts. Will monitor trends the next hour or two but confidence is increasing IFR-LIFR CIGs will reach the inland terminals between 07Z (KLEE) and 10Z (KMCO). HREF suggests some improvement to IFR- MVFR after 14Z, but indicating VFR conditions won`t return until after the squall line pushes through. Mainly SHRA until the line reaches KMCO-KTIX, then some embedded TSRA are possible. Becoming windy/gusty ahead of and especially behind the front. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this morning then further increase to 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts while veering northwest behind the front in the late morning and afternoon. Winds settle to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts, occasionally higher in the late evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will cross the area today and bring a chance for showers but rainfall amounts less than 0.25" is forecast. Isolated lightning storms will be possible mainly south of Orlando. Northwest winds behind the front will increase 15 mph gusting 25-30 mph and advect much drier air into central Florida. As a result, critically low RH values of 30-35% will develop across northern and central sections late in the day and through this evening. More widespread Red flag conditions will occur Monday with long duration of critical RH values 20-30% and NW winds near 15 mph gusting near 25 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 36 55 32 / 60 0 0 0 MCO 77 39 55 34 / 60 0 0 0 MLB 80 40 57 34 / 60 0 0 0 VRB 81 41 59 33 / 60 0 0 0 LEE 74 37 55 31 / 50 0 0 0 SFB 77 37 56 33 / 60 0 0 0 ORL 76 39 56 35 / 60 0 0 0 FPR 83 39 59 31 / 60 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-447-547-647. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547. Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for FLZ447-547-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570-572. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1260530 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 100 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 745 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 - Windy, drier air presents an elevated to critical fire danger on Sunday afternoon through Monday. Any showers or isolated storms on Sunday`s cold front will not be nearly enough to dent the worsening drought. - Hazardous to dangerous winds and seas develop behind the front from Sunday through Monday. Occasional gale-force gusts and seas building to 13 feet in the Gulf Stream on Sunday. - A blast of dangerously cold wind chills arrives on Monday night. Wind chills in the 20s are anticipated for much of the area. The risk for freezing temperatures and frost have increased early this week, especially over northern areas and the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Today-Tonight... High pressure axis will remain in place across the Florida peninsula today. At the surface, low pressure will develop along a stationary front across the deep South, deepening tonight along the Carolina coast, which will push the trailing cold front into north Florida later tonight. Locally, southwest wind flow will persist with speeds around 10 mph or less each day. The east coast sea breeze is once again forecast to form later this afternoon and push inland. Mostly dry conditions today, with no mentionable rain chances through this evening. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach Lake and Volusia counties around sunrise. Otherwise, dry through the overnight hours. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of year, with temperatures near record highs once again. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with plenty of sunshine. There is a good chance for more sites to tie or even break record highs this afternoon (see below). Overnight lows both nights will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, possibly reaching mid 60s in the Orlando Metro area. Patchy fog will once again be possible across all of east central Florida late tonight into Saturday morning. Sunday-Monday...Upper level low pressure across the eastern edge of the Midwest on Sunday will shift eastward towards the Atlantic coast before moving northward along the NE US coast on Monday. At the surface, a closed low along the coast of NC/VA will drag a trailing strong cold front across east central Florida on Sunday as it moves northward along the NE coast. Surface high pressure will then move from TX/LA into the Gulf on Tuesday, with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. Locally, drier air will move in behind the front, with forecast PW values ranging from 0.8-1.5" ahead of the front to 0.1-0.2" behind the front. The front will also bring back rain chances to east central Florida, although rainfall amounts are forecast to be less than 0.25" across most areas. There is a medium to high (60-70 percent) chance of showers across the whole area on Sunday. Forecast soundings show limited instability (CAPE around 750 J/kg), so lightning storm chances remain low at this time, and mainly confined to the I-4 corridor south of Daytona and extending to around Cape Canaveral. West to southwest winds around daybreak on Sunday will veer northwest and become breezy to gusty behind the front, increasing to around 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Northwest winds will remain around 10-15 mph Sunday night and through Monday. Due to these stronger winds and very low min RH values, critical fire weather conditions are forecast through Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of east central Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Temperatures ahead of the front will be well above normal, especially across the south. Afternoon highs on Sunday will be mid to upper 70 across the north and low to mid 80s across the south. Monday will be noticeably cooler, with afternoon highs ranging from mid 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night, and low to mid 30s on Monday night. Lows have trended slightly cooler on Monday night, with many locations across the interior reaching at or just below freezing. Due to the persistent NW breeze, lowest wind chills on Sunday night into Monday will fall into the low to mid 30s, and mid to upper 20s on Monday night into Tuesday. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely to be needed for most of the area Monday night into Tuesday. Tuesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure across the Gulf will slowly shift eastward and over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday night. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward and out into the Atlantic Wednesday with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula through late week and into the weekend. Locally, north to northwest winds on Tuesday will shift southerly on Wednesday and remain in place through late week. Wind speeds will generally be light, at 10 mph or less through the period. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the week, with temperatures reaching low to mid 80s by late week. Overnight lows will also be on a warming trend, with lows in the low to mid 30s, except upper 30s to low 40s around the Orlando metro and along the coast on Tuesday night, warming to the 50s by mid/late week. Radiational cooling will be excellent on Tuesday night due to the clear skies, and coupled with the high pressure over head and light winds, the potential for frost is increasing where temperatures fall into the mid 30s. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Today- Tonight... Generally good boating conditions as the high pressure ridge axis will remain across Florida today. This will result in south to southwest flow persisting across the local waters with speeds around 10 KT KT. However, winds will veer onshore (SE) later this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes onshore. Winds behind the sea breeze will be 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Seas 2-4 FT. No mentionable rain chances this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the northern Volusia waters near sunrise. Sunday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous discussion) Deteriorating boating conditions Sunday into early next week. A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday bringing scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few storms south of the Cape. Strong and gusty NW winds will develop behind the front Sun afternoon and quickly overspread all the local Atlc waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the VOlusia waters and offshore Brevard waters starting Sunday morning. The SCA expands to all the waters Sunday afternoon, with the offshore Volusia/Brevard waters transition to a Gale Watch going through at least Monday morning. The Gale Watch may need to be upgraded to a Warning on the next package. The SCA and Gale will likely need to be extended in time. Seas will rapidly build to 13 FT in the Gulf Stream Sun night and early Mon. Occasional gusts to Gale force are forecast Sun evening offshore Volusia and Brevard. Conditions will remain hazardous for boating through Mon night. Winds will decrease 10-15 knots by Tue aftn but the north wind component will keep seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf Stream with a choppy 4-5 FT nearshore. High pressure will become centered over the FL peninsula Tue night then shift seaward Wed with a trailing ridge axis across south FL. Winds quickly veer to an offshore component and seas fall below 5 FT in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Messy and complicated aviation forecast as a strong cold front approaches ECFL early this morning and pushes through later today. Sent the 06Z TAF package with generally VFR conditions (some MVFR reductions INVOF of the squall line ahead of the front) based on current low probs for IFR-LIFR CIGs early this morning, but satellite imagery shows stratus has started to develop along the WCFL Gulf coast, at least partially supporting HREF guidance which has been the most aggressive with impacts. Will monitor trends the next hour or two but confidence is increasing IFR-LIFR CIGs will reach the inland terminals between 07Z (KLEE) and 10Z (KMCO). HREF suggests some improvement to IFR- MVFR after 14Z, but indicating VFR conditions won`t return until after the squall line pushes through. Mainly SHRA until the line reaches KMCO-KTIX, then some embedded TSRA are possible. Becoming windy/gusty ahead of and especially behind the front. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this morning then further increase to 15-20 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts while veering northwest behind the front in the late morning and afternoon. Winds settle to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts, occasionally higher in the late evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 745 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Evening Update... Guidance trends continue to build confidence in an episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions over east central Florida beginning Sunday afternoon and evening. A rather complex scenario unfolds as drier/less humid air rushes southward behind a cold front. Confidence in Red Flag conditions is greatest roughly near and north of I-4 and into Osceola Co, necessitating an upgrade from the Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Sunday afternoon and evening. Have left the Fire Weather Watch for the remaining chunk of the district where question marks remain, such as how low RHs can fall after sunset on Sunday evening. The Fire Weather Watch is still in effect for Monday. Regardless of the watches and warnings posted for any given area, officials and residents should know that the combination of an ongoing drought, dry/dead fuels from the early February freeze, and the impending weather conditions present the potential for quick/uncontrolled wildfire growth. Previous Discussion... Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through the weekend and into early next week. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% this afternoon across the whole area. Southwest winds will remain around 10 mph or less today. A strong cold front will then push through the local area on Sunday. Min RH values will drop to 35-45% across the northern interior on Sunday with min RH values recovering slightly to 45-55% across the south. Southwest winds will become northwest and breezy to gusty (15 mph gusting 25-30 mph) behind the front. As the drier air settles over the Florida peninsula Monday, min RH values will drop to 20-30% areawide and northwest winds will be near 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph once again. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 636 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Record highs were set today at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Sanford, and Leesburg. Daytona Beach also tied their all-time warmest February temperature, 89 deg F. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 36 55 32 / 60 0 0 0 MCO 77 39 55 34 / 60 0 0 0 MLB 80 40 57 34 / 60 0 0 0 VRB 81 41 59 33 / 60 0 0 0 LEE 74 37 55 31 / 50 0 0 0 SFB 77 37 56 33 / 60 0 0 0 ORL 76 39 56 35 / 60 0 0 0 FPR 83 39 59 31 / 60 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647- 747. Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for FLZ447-547-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570-572. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
