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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1209026 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 103 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 - High Risk of rip currents with rough surf today - Cooler and drier air is forecast late week behind the front with temperatures dropping to the 40s. - Hazardous conditions over the local Atlantic waters and sensitive fire weather conditions are expected late week into and into the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 No significant changes to the forecast. Gave a somewhat generous extension to 20 pct PoPs across the south for showers ahead of the pre-frontal trough through the evening. Mostly dry conditions for most of the area, with the last few showers down towards Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast pushing offshore/south over the next few hours. The front itself has just reached the doorstop of East Central Florida, pushing through overnight, and exiting to the south and east before daybreak. Cool but not yet cold tonight as lows drop into the 50s for most of the area, ranging from the L50s well north of I-4 to the U50s from Titusville south to rural Okeechobee county. From Lake Okeechobee to near Melbourne south, lows will still be in the 60s, albeit the low 60s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Current-Tonight...Mid-level dry air has been a major limiting factor of precip coverage today, with a few passing showers impacting only a portion of east central FL this afternoon. A bulk of the moisture passed near Lake Okeechobee, and will impact Martin County over the next couple of hours. Additional scattered showers will move eastward near metro Orlando soon, but this will likely be the end to any rain chances for the remainder of the day. The approaching cold front has now cleared past Tallahassee, forcing erosion of cloud cover as it nears. The remainder of daylight hours will still be cloudy locally, with gusty south to southwest winds soon to veer westerly. The frontal boundary is expected to be on the doorstep of the local area by midnight, quickly shifting winds northwest and bringing much drier air (PW less than 0.60") as well as cooler temperatures. North of I-4, lows tonight will drop to the low to mid 50s, but with the front bisecting the local area, southern locations will still observe temps in the low/mid 60s. Tomorrow...Dominant high pressure will build in across the Southeast as the front exits South Florida creating a surge of breezy northerly winds of 15-20 mph. Even with clear skies returning, temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees across most of the area, with only the Treasure Coast breaking into the lower 70s. Tomorrow night will be the first chilly night of the season, with temperatures dipping into the 40s area wide, even reaching the lower 40s in rural Lake, Volusia and Osceola counties. While wind chill values won`t become a hazardous weather threat, the breezy conditions will make the feels like temperatures fall into the upper 30s - a clear indication that its time for the Floridian winter clothes to come out of hibernation. Friday-Tuesday...(previous) An upper level trough is expected to move east- southeast over the Southeast US Friday into Saturday with reinforcing cold air advection resulting in cooler air into the weekend. Winds will be breezy from the west-northwest Friday at 12- 18mph with gust to 25-30mph. Winds are expected to veer north- northeast into Sunday and then onshore from the east into next week. The dry weather will continue through the forecast period. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast with sunny skies Friday with the mid to upper 60s Saturday. High pressure is expected to build over the Deep South Saturday and then shift east over the Southeast US, in addition to the western Atlantic Sunday into next week. Temperatures will gradually warm as winds veer onshore into next week with highs in the low to mid 70s Sunday and the mid 70s to low 80s into next week with sunny skies. Lows in the upper 30s to near 50 degrees are forecast Friday morning and through the weekend before increasing into the mid 40s to near 60 degrees into next week. Minimum Wind Chill values are expected to drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday and Saturday mornings with the low 40s to low 50s forecast Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Tonight-Tomorrow...Marine conditions will quickly deteriorate tonight and early tomorrow as an approaching cold front sends a brisk northerly wind surge across the local Atlantic waters. Winds reach 20-25 knots initially north of Cape Canaveral just after sunset this evening, spreading southward to Jupiter Inlet by sunrise. Seas will build 6-8 ft up to 9 ft in the far offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect this evening for all marine zones. Friday-Sunday...Hazardous conditions will retreat to the offshore waters late Thursday into Friday, with NW winds still at 15-25 knots. Nearshore seas do diminish below 5 ft on Thursday, but the lingering 6-8 ft swell will continue in the Gulf Stream waters into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The cold front continues southward, with brief MVFR CIGs (BKN015) being observed along it. Have included TEMPO groups for MLB and the Treasure Coast to account for this. Behind the front, winds veering northwesterly and increasing, with gusts to around 20kts area-wide by daybreak. Skies will clear, as dry air moves into the area. However, winds will remain elevated, with gusts to around 25kts through the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 45 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 67 48 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 70 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 73 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 68 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 69 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 74 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552- 555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
