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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1252611 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible across portions of east central Florida early this week. - Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through midweek, with isolated showers possible mainly along the Treasure Coast. - A stronger cold front then moves through early on Thanksgiving, leading to cooler than normal temperatures late week, with mostly dry conditions persisting. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Today-Tuesday...A weak front will continue to slide south, eventually stalling across the Lake Okeechobee region this morning. This boundary will become more diffuse and will eventually dissipate as it lifts back north Tuesday. Isolated showers will continue near this front, mainly over the waters. However, some of these showers may be able to push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast with a developing low level E/NE flow. Have maintained rain chances around 20 percent across this area today and again late tonight through Tuesday morning. Otherwise, it will remain mostly dry through early this week. May be a tad cooler along the Volusia County coast today, where highs are forecast in the upper 70s. Otherwise, the front provides no real change in temperatures, with a building ridge aloft maintaining warmer than normal conditions today and Tuesday, with highs for most locations in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible due to lighter low level winds this morning and again late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Greatest potential for fog will be along the Treasure Coast and into the interior through early this morning, and then mainly across the interior late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Wednesday-Friday...Ridge aloft weakens and shifts eastward as a large mid/upper level trough shifts into the eastern U.S. and eventually pushes a stronger cold front through the region late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the Treasure Coast and across the coastal waters into Wednesday and Thursday as front approaches and moves through the region. The potential for a storm or two will also exist, mainly over the gulf stream waters where instability will be a little higher. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue through mid to late week. Highs continue to climb into Wednesday, reaching the low to mid 80s. Max temps then fall into Thanksgiving Day behind the cold front, ranging from the upper 60s along the Volusia County coast, and into the 70s farther south and inland, except near 80 degrees across southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Highs then fall even further into Friday to the mid 60s to low 70s, as a north-northeast breeze continues to usher in cooler than normal temps. Lows fall into the 50s most areas Thursday and Friday night, but northwest of I-4 min temps are forecast to fall even lower in the mid to upper 40s. Saturday-Sunday...High pressure quickly builds in north of the front Saturday, tightening the pressure gradient and leading to a breezy onshore flow through the weekend. This will begin to modify the cool and dry airmass in place. Highs will rise to the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Sunday. Overnight lows will also return to the 60s for most areas Saturday and Sunday nights. As moisture gradually increases, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will develop, initially along the Treasure Coast Saturday and then across much of east central FL Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions forecast. Weak front settles southward and stalls across the southern Treasure Coast waters this morning and lingers there until it gradually dissipates as it lifts northward Tuesday. Northeast winds around 5-10 knots forecast across the coastal waters becoming east-southeast into tonight. Seas 1-3 feet today, increasing to 2-4 feet tonight. Isolated showers will continue to be possible over the coastal waters, mainly south of the Cape and also across the offshore Volusia waters. Tuesday-Friday...Boating conditions will remain favorable through midweek, with winds generally out of the south-southeast around 5-10 knots and seas 2-3 feet. A stronger cold front then moves through the region late Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving Day, which will lead to increasing northerly winds that will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions into late week. Wind speeds will increase to 15-20 knots Thursday and remain breezy into Friday, building seas up to 5-7 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the waters Tuesday through Thursday. A storm or two may also potentially develop, mainly over the gulf stream waters as front approaches Wednesday and moves through early Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1233 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Patchy fog/stratus possible again this morning as a weak frontal boundary sags in CFL. Chances for MVFR VIS impacts have increased at KMLB-KFPR, from 10% or less in 12Z HREF to 20-40% in 00Z HREF, and remain about the same at KMCO and other inland terminals at 10-30%, lowest at KSFB. Models remain inconsistent with IFR VIS potential, and MIFG causing erroneous obs isn`t helping. Decent confidence the worst of the stratus will stay west of the ECFL terminals. Kept TAFS VFR-MVFR for this package, and will AMD for IFR conditions as needed. Any fog/stratus that manages to develop should dissipate by around 14Z at the latest, if not sooner. There is a low (20-30%) chance for showers INVOF KVRB-KSUA through the night and morning, highest in the morning. Light overnight NNW-NE winds shift ENE 5-10 kts in the afternoon, becoming light again late this evening while veering ESE-SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 81 65 82 64 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 82 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 64 82 64 / 20 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1252605 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1254 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Isolated showers are possible through at least Monday as a weak front stalls over the area; for many locations, mostly dry and warm conditions will persist through mid week - A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, ushering in cooler than normal temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Now-Tonight...Light winds are veering north-northwest this afternoon as low-level moisture gradually increases, evidenced by satellite and recent observations. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate the development of an east coast breeze late this afternoon, pushing inland through the evening. This feature, along with an approaching front and increased moisture focused below 700mb, could be enough to spark isolated showers. Light QPF is anticipated, though some CAMs put down a quick 0.25" from Titusville to Melbourne through midnight. Probabilities of these locally higher amounts occurring are around 10-25%. For many locations, dry weather will prevail into tonight as the front stalls over central Florida. The chance for light showers or sprinkles continues into early Monday morning as temperatures settle into the 60s. Some lower clouds are forecast to build overhead tonight, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out over far interior locations (namely Lake/Osceola counties) through sunrise. Monday-Tuesday...A stout dry 700-500mb layer will persist through Tuesday with modest moisture lingering above and below these levels. Northwest flow aloft quickly backs to the west-southwest Monday night into Tuesday as a 500mb ridge axis moves overhead. At the surface, a stationary front is forecast to linger over the southern half of the area, until lifting north as a warm front Tuesday into early Wednesday. Low confidence exists in sprinkles/showers occurring beyond Monday evening, though it would not be a surprise to see a few onshore-moving showers brush the coast through Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs Monday will remain above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s, warming a bit on Tuesday to the low and middle 80s areawide. Morning lows are forecast to range from the low/mid 60s north to the mid/upper 60s along the Treasure Coast. Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Large scale trough aloft will shift eastward from the central to eastern U.S., which will weaken the mid level ridge across the region and lead to H5 height falls Wednesday into Thursday. At the same time, a stronger cold front is forecast to move through the area. Low rain chances (15-25%) with a slight chance for thunderstorms remains in the forecast, well south and east of Orlando Wednesday-Thursday, as the front approaches and moves through. Drier air will filter in behind the front, ending rain chances by Thursday night. High pressure building in will quickly lead to a breezy onshore flow into the weekend, which will gradually increase moisture and should also lead to an increase in onshore moving showers. The short-lived warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s ahead of the approaching front. As the cold front crosses the area, highs on Thanksgiving are forecast to fall to the low to mid 70s near to north of Orlando, and in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees south. North-northeast winds will continue to allow max temps to drop into Friday, ranging from the upper 60s across Volusia County and low to mid 70s farther south and inland. Lows will fall into the 50s and low 60s Thursday night and Friday night, with even colder temps in the mid to upper 40s northwest of I-4 early Friday morning. The developing onshore breeze into next weekend will lead to a gradual rise in temps, with highs still in the 70s and overnight lows back into the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Winds around 10 kt or less turn northeast into Monday, increasing Monday evening and night to 10-15 kt from the east-southeast. A stalled front and sufficient moisture in place will provide the opportunity for isolated showers through at least Tuesday morning. Wave heights generally remain 2-3 ft, though offshore seas briefly build to 4 ft Monday night into Tuesday morning. The remnant front lifts north of the waters mid week as a warm front with winds generally out of the south-southeast. A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, building winds and seas from north to south. Hazardous boating conditions are anticipated from this point forward and continuing through at least Saturday. Seas (as of now) look to reach 5 to 8 ft on late Thursday into Friday, continuing into Saturday around 5 to 7 ft. Northerly winds 15-20 kt veer northeast 20-25 kt Friday, turning easterly on Saturday. Isolated showers are possible over the waters (especially the Gulf Stream) with a low chance of a lightning storm south of Cape Canaveral Wednesday through early Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1233 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Patchy fog/stratus possible again this morning as a weak frontal boundary sags in CFL. Chances for MVFR VIS impacts have increased at KMLB-KFPR, from 10% or less in 12Z HREF to 20-40% in 00Z HREF, and remain about the same at KMCO and other inland terminals at 10-30%, lowest at KSFB. Models remain inconsistent with IFR VIS potential, and MIFG causing erroneous obs isn`t helping. Decent confidence the worst of the stratus will stay west of the ECFL terminals. Kept TAFS VFR-MVFR for this package, and will AMD for IFR conditions as needed. Any fog/stratus that manages to develop should dissipate by around 14Z at the latest, if not sooner. There is a low (20-30%) chance for showers INVOF KVRB-KSUA through the night and morning, highest in the morning. Light overnight NNW-NE winds shift ENE 5-10 kts in the afternoon, becoming light again late this evening while veering ESE-SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 80 65 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 81 65 82 64 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 82 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 82 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 64 82 64 / 20 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
