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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1225154 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 01.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 -Showers and lightning storms are forecast late this afternoon and evening, mainly from Brevard to Osceola northward, as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Some storms may be strong with the primary threat being gusty winds and lightning strikes. -Patchy dense fog will be possible late overnight into early Wednesday morning and may reduce visibility less than 1/2 mile in spots. -Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. -Becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Current-Tonight...Continued warm and humid across ECFL as afternoon maxes remain well above climo in the U80s inland and in the M80s at the coast. Peak heat indices into the low 90s W of I-95. The pressure gradient is weak with light SWRLY winds transitioning onshore at the coast this afternoon, with this trend slowly pushing inland thru late day and early evening, quicker inland across the Treasure Coast. Expect another sea breeze collision late (early evening) across the central peninsula. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop. The steering flow will be light westerly with some erratic movement at times, and some of this activity may drift back toward the Volusia and north Brevard coasts. Storms will dissipate through late evening, with highest PoPs (30-40pct) across the I-4 corridor and Osceola County. There should be less coverage overall than was witnessed the past couple of days. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. A few storms may be strong late today with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph locally, small hail, and torrential downpours. 925 mb SERLY winds increase to 15-20 kts off the surface overnight, which should lend toward favoring stratus over fog development, but will follow persistence from the last couple days of rainfall and add patchy fog for late overnight into early Wed morning. Would suspect greatest chances would be inland from the coast where it could again become locally dense. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper 60s, to around 70F with conditions humid. Wed-Sun...Previous Discussion Modified...Mid-upper level high pressure across the western Atlc, extending to the Florida peninsula, will amplify and dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast U.S. on Wed will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with associated ridge axis building across the Florida peninsula by the weekend. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, becoming breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sun as the surface high pressure retreats south/east with the approach of a frontal boundary across the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temps will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the U80s to L90s across the interior, and M80s along the coast. Peak afternoon heat indices in the L90s W of I-95. Overnight lows will be U60s to L70s on Wed overnight, and M-U60s Thu night onward. Mon-Tue...Previous Discussion Modified...A broad upper-level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast U.S. coastline (near the Carolinas) Tue night. An accompanying/weakening cold front across the Deep South on Mon will push southeast across the local area Mon night into Tue morning. The GFS is the faster solution with the ECMWF bringing the boundary through on Tue. Either way, this will bring rain chances back into the forecast. For now, there is a low to medium (20-40 pct) chance of showers and lightning storms across east central Florida on Mon aftn/night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 pct on Tue, depending on timing of this feature. Prefrontal SW winds on Mon will veer W/NW with approach/passage of the boundary. Winds continue to veer to N/NE further behind the boundary, as long as it makes a clean passage. Warm conditions on Mon, prefrontal, with noticeably cooler temperatures behind this boundary once it passes. Afternoon highs will be in the U80s to L90s on Mon, falling into M70s across the I-4 corridor to U70s/L80s south towards Lake Okee/Treasure Coast on Tue, if the front passes as presently scheduled. Overnight lows into Tue morning in the U50s north of I-4, L60s southward, except M60s along the immediate Treasure Coast and adjacent barrier islands. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Remainder of afternoon thru Sat...Weak high pressure across the western Atlc will periodically become reinforced thru late week, with associated ridge axis settling across the central FL peninsula by this weekend. Variable light winds early today transition to SERLY with the local sea breeze regime 6-12 kts. SE winds increase to 12-16 kts on Wed, and 15-20 kts over the Gulf Stream Wed night-Thu night before diminishing to around 15 kts Fri- Sat. Seas 3-4 ft build to 4-5ft Wed night-Thu night (possibly 6 ft well offshore) before slowly subsiding to 3-4 ft again Fri aftn/Sat. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend, except for isolated to scattered showers/lightning storms mainly Cape Canaveral northward this evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 VFR continue this afternoon before SHRA/TSRA develop along the westward-moving sea breeze, first near DAB-TIX, expanding toward SFB/MCO/ISM after 21-22z. Winds veer out of the east behind the breeze. VCTS was included at most of the northern terminals with TEMPOs at SFB/MCO/ISM 22-01z. TSRA may approach LEE but not enough confidence exists for a TEMPO at this time. Storms that impact the terminals could produce wind gusts of 35 knots or greater. Farther south, mainly at VRB/FPR/SUA, dry conditions will persist. As SHRA/TSRA decrease after 02-03z Wed., ESE winds become light and even variable at times. Models indicate some patchy fog potential overnight, especially where TSRA occurs today, though confidence is too low to mention in this TAF. Breezy SE winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt resume after 14z Tue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 84 69 84 / 30 10 0 0 MCO 71 88 71 88 / 30 10 0 10 MLB 69 83 71 83 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 69 84 71 84 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 69 90 70 90 / 20 10 0 10 SFB 69 88 70 88 / 40 10 0 10 ORL 71 88 71 89 / 30 10 0 10 FPR 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225149 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 01.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 857 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 -Patchy dense fog will reduce visibility less than 1/2 mile in spots this morning. -Showers and lightning storms are forecast late this afternoon and evening, mainly from Brevard to Osceola northward, as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Some storms may be strong with the primary threat being gusty winds and lightning strikes. -Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. -Becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Current-Tonight...Patchy dense fog this morning across much of ECFL thanks in part to the last couple of days rainfall, light winds, and MClear skies. The fog should continue to slowly burn off thru mid to late morning. PSunny to MSunny skies should emerge once the grunge burns off. The pressure gradient will be weak today and expect early morning light SWRLY winds to transition onshore at the coast this afternoon with this trend slowly pushing inland thru late day, quicker inland across the Treasure Coast. Expect another sea breeze collision late (early evening) across the central peninsula. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop. The steering flow will be light westerly with some erratic movement at times, and some of this activity may drift back toward the Volusia and north Brevard coast. Storms will dissipate through late evening, with highest PoPs (30pct) across the I-4 corridor and Osceola County. There should be less coverage overall than was witnessed the past couple of days. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. A few storms may be strong late today with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph locally, small hail, and torrential downpours. Above normal temperatures persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper 60s, to around 70F. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Today-Tonight...Low pressure off the NE coast will shift eastward through the day, with the surface frontal boundary across northern FL washing out before reaching ECFL. Locally, south to southwest winds will remain light, with speeds generally less than 10 mph. There is a low chance for patchy fog and low stratus to form early this morning across Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Osceola counties. Any lingering fog is forecast to lift by 9 AM. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form once again this afternoon and push inland, with the southern portion of the sea breeze moving inland a little quicker than the northern portion. Convection is once again forecast for today due to a combination of residual moisture from the frontal boundary to the north and sea breeze interactions across the interior. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and storm from Brevard to Osceola northward late this afternoon into this evening. The greatest potential for storms looks to be across the interior, from inland Volusia southward to northwest Osceola county, where the sea breeze collision and boundary interactions are forecast to occur. While convection is not expected to be as strong as they were yesterday, the environment looks favorable for some stronger storms once again late this afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings show temperatures aloft remain fairly cold (H500: -10C to -11C), drier air in the mid to upper levels, and sufficient instability (MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg). PW values are also adequate this afternoon, with values around 1.2-1.3", which will support the isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast, along with plenty of day time heating. However, lighter winds in the mid levels will aid in suppressing storm growth and help keep storms from getting as strong as yesterday. Thus, main storm hazards will be gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering showers and storms will push towards the coast and out into the Atlantic waters in late evening into the overnight hours. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. Above normal temperatures persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s, to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday...Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast on Wednesday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10- 15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday night, and mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Tuesday...A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A weak frontal boundary will stall over northern Florida before washing out north of the local area later today. High pressure will then dominate the local waters by mid week with generally favorable boating conditions through the period. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on today will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to around 15 KT on Wednesday, and 15-20 KT on Thursday and Friday before diminishing to around 15 KT once again on Saturday. Seas will be 3- 4ft will build to 4-5ft on Thursday before subsiding to 3-4ft on Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend, except for isolated to scattered showers mainly north of Cape Canaveral today and tonight. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 VFR continue this afternoon before SHRA/TSRA develop along the westward-moving sea breeze, first near DAB-TIX, expanding toward SFB/MCO/ISM after 21-22z. Winds veer out of the east behind the breeze. VCTS was included at most of the northern terminals with TEMPOs at SFB/MCO/ISM 22-01z. TSRA may approach LEE but not enough confidence exists for a TEMPO at this time. Storms that impact the terminals could produce wind gusts of 35 knots or greater. Farther south, mainly at VRB/FPR/SUA, dry conditions will persist. As SHRA/TSRA decrease after 02-03z Wed., ESE winds become light and even variable at times. Models indicate some patchy fog potential overnight, especially where TSRA occurs today, though confidence is too low to mention in this TAF. Breezy SE winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt resume after 14z Tue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 84 69 84 / 30 10 0 0 MCO 71 88 71 88 / 30 10 0 10 MLB 69 83 71 83 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 69 84 71 84 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 69 90 70 90 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 69 88 70 88 / 30 10 0 10 ORL 71 88 71 89 / 30 10 0 10 FPR 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225128 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:15 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 857 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 857 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 -Patchy dense fog will reduce visibility less than 1/2 mile in spots this morning. -Showers and lightning storms are forecast late this afternoon and evening, mainly from Brevard to Osceola northward, as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Some storms may be strong with the primary threat being gusty winds and lightning strikes. -Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. -Becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Current-Tonight...Patchy dense fog this morning across much of ECFL thanks in part to the last couple of days rainfall, light winds, and MClear skies. The fog should continue to slowly burn off thru mid to late morning. PSunny to MSunny skies should emerge once the grunge burns off. The pressure gradient will be weak today and expect early morning light SWRLY winds to transition onshore at the coast this afternoon with this trend slowly pushing inland thru late day, quicker inland across the Treasure Coast. Expect another sea breeze collision late (early evening) across the central peninsula. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop. The steering flow will be light westerly with some erratic movement at times, and some of this activity may drift back toward the Volusia and north Brevard coast. Storms will dissipate through late evening, with highest PoPs (30pct) across the I-4 corridor and Osceola County. There should be less coverage overall than was witnessed the past couple of days. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. A few storms may be strong late today with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph locally, small hail, and torrential downpours. Above normal temperatures persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper 60s, to around 70F. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Today-Tonight...Low pressure off the NE coast will shift eastward through the day, with the surface frontal boundary across northern FL washing out before reaching ECFL. Locally, south to southwest winds will remain light, with speeds generally less than 10 mph. There is a low chance for patchy fog and low stratus to form early this morning across Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Osceola counties. Any lingering fog is forecast to lift by 9 AM. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form once again this afternoon and push inland, with the southern portion of the sea breeze moving inland a little quicker than the northern portion. Convection is once again forecast for today due to a combination of residual moisture from the frontal boundary to the north and sea breeze interactions across the interior. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and storm from Brevard to Osceola northward late this afternoon into this evening. The greatest potential for storms looks to be across the interior, from inland Volusia southward to northwest Osceola county, where the sea breeze collision and boundary interactions are forecast to occur. While convection is not expected to be as strong as they were yesterday, the environment looks favorable for some stronger storms once again late this afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings show temperatures aloft remain fairly cold (H500: -10C to -11C), drier air in the mid to upper levels, and sufficient instability (MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg). PW values are also adequate this afternoon, with values around 1.2-1.3", which will support the isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast, along with plenty of day time heating. However, lighter winds in the mid levels will aid in suppressing storm growth and help keep storms from getting as strong as yesterday. Thus, main storm hazards will be gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering showers and storms will push towards the coast and out into the Atlantic waters in late evening into the overnight hours. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. Above normal temperatures persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s, to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday...Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast on Wednesday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10- 15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday night, and mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Tuesday...A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A weak frontal boundary will stall over northern Florida before washing out north of the local area later today. High pressure will then dominate the local waters by mid week with generally favorable boating conditions through the period. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on today will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to around 15 KT on Wednesday, and 15-20 KT on Thursday and Friday before diminishing to around 15 KT once again on Saturday. Seas will be 3- 4ft will build to 4-5ft on Thursday before subsiding to 3-4ft on Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend, except for isolated to scattered showers mainly north of Cape Canaveral today and tonight. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 IFR/LIFR stratus and patchy fog will affect most terminals except SUA through 14Z. VFR conds should return to all terminals by 16Z with a W/SW wind less than 10 knots. A wind shift out of the E/SE will occur at coastal terminals btwn 17Z-20Z at 10-12 knots behind the sea breeze. Isold SHRA/TSRA will develop along the inland moving sea breeze with a late sea breeze collision over the interior aft 22Z. Have maintained a PROB30 for MVFR TSRA at MCO/ISM/SFB from 22Z-02Z. MCO looks most likely to eventually get upgraded to a TEMPO but have time to get better clarity on timing. Conditions are favorable for storms to produce wind gusts greater than 35 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 68 85 69 / 30 20 10 0 MCO 89 70 87 71 / 30 20 10 0 MLB 85 69 84 71 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 87 69 90 71 / 20 10 10 10 SFB 89 69 89 70 / 30 20 0 0 ORL 89 71 89 71 / 30 20 10 0 FPR 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225118 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 713 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 -Patchy dense fog will reduce visibility less than 1/2 mile in spots this morning. -Showers and lightning storms are forecast late this afternoon and evening, mainly from Brevard to Osceola northward, as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Some storms may be strong with the primary threat being gusty winds and lightning strikes. -Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. -Isolated showers and storms Tuesday before becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Today-Tonight... Low pressure off the NE coast will shift eastward through the day, with the surface frontal boundary across northern FL washing out before reaching ECFL. Locally, south to southwest winds will remain light, with speeds generally less than 10 mph. There is a low chance for patchy fog and low stratus to form early this morning across Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Osceola counties. Any lingering fog is forecast to lift by 9 AM. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form once again this afternoon and push inland, with the southern portion of the sea breeze moving inland a little quicker than the northern portion. Convection is once again forecast for today due to a combination of residual moisture from the frontal boundary to the north and sea breeze interactions across the interior. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and storm from Brevard to Osceola northward late this afternoon into this evening. The greatest potential for storms looks to be across the interior, from inland Volusia southward to northwest Osceola county, where the sea breeze collision and boundary interactions are forecast to occur. While convection is not expected to be as strong as they were yesterday, the environment looks favorable for some stronger storms once again late this afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings show temperatures aloft remain fairly cold (H500: -10C to -11C), drier air in the mid to upper levels, and sufficient instability (MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg). PW values are also adequate this afternoon, with values around 1.2-1.3", which will support the isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast, along with plenty of day time heating. However, lighter winds in the mid levels will aid in suppressing storm growth and help keep storms from getting as strong as yesterday. Thus, main storm hazards will be gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering showers and storms will push towards the coast and out into the Atlantic waters in late evening into the overnight hours. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. Above normal temperatures persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s, to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast on Wednesday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10- 15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday night, and mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Tuesday... A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A weak frontal boundary will stall over northern Florida before washing out north of the local area later today. High pressure will then dominate the local waters by mid week with generally favorable boating conditions through the period. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on today will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to around 15 KT on Wednesday, and 15-20 KT on Thursday and Friday before diminishing to around 15 KT once again on Saturday. Seas will be 3- 4ft will build to 4-5ft on Thursday before subsiding to 3-4ft on Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend, except for isolated to scattered showers mainly north of Cape Canaveral today and tonight. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 IFR/LIFR stratus and patchy fog will affect most terminals except SUA through 14Z. VFR conds should return to all terminals by 16Z with a W/SW wind less than 10 knots. A wind shift out of the E/SE will occur at coastal terminals btwn 17Z-20Z at 10-12 knots behind the sea breeze. Isold SHRA/TSRA will develop along the inland moving sea breeze with a late sea breeze collision over the interior aft 22Z. Have maintained a PROB30 for MVFR TSRA at MCO/ISM/SFB from 22Z-02Z. MCO looks most likely to eventually get upgraded to a TEMPO but have time to get better clarity on timing. Conditions are favorable for storms to produce wind gusts greater than 35 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 68 85 69 / 30 20 10 0 MCO 89 70 87 71 / 30 20 10 0 MLB 85 69 84 71 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 87 69 90 71 / 20 10 10 10 SFB 89 69 89 70 / 30 20 0 0 ORL 89 71 89 71 / 30 20 10 0 FPR 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225106 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 -Patchy fog and low stratus may develop early this morning, mainly from Osceola, Orange, Seminole, and Lake counties. Visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be possible in dense fog. -Showers and lightning storms are forecast late this afternoon and evening, mainly from Brevard to Osceola northward, as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Some storms may be strong with the primary threat being gusty winds and lightning strikes. -Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. -Isolated showers and storms Tuesday before becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Today-Tonight... Low pressure off the NE coast will shift eastward through the day, with the surface frontal boundary across northern FL washing out before reaching ECFL. Locally, south to southwest winds will remain light, with speeds generally less than 10 mph. There is a low chance for patchy fog and low stratus to form early this morning across Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Osceola counties. Any lingering fog is forecast to lift by 9 AM. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form once again this afternoon and push inland, with the southern portion of the sea breeze moving inland a little quicker than the northern portion. Convection is once again forecast for today due to a combination of residual moisture from the frontal boundary to the north and sea breeze interactions across the interior. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and storm from Brevard to Osceola northward late this afternoon into this evening. The greatest potential for storms looks to be across the interior, from inland Volusia southward to northwest Osceola county, where the sea breeze collision and boundary interactions are forecast to occur. While convection is not expected to be as strong as they were yesterday, the environment looks favorable for some stronger storms once again late this afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings show temperatures aloft remain fairly cold (H500: -10C to -11C), drier air in the mid to upper levels, and sufficient instability (MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg). PW values are also adequate this afternoon, with values around 1.2-1.3", which will support the isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast, along with plenty of day time heating. However, lighter winds in the mid levels will aid in suppressing storm growth and help keep storms from getting as strong as yesterday. Thus, main storm hazards will be gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering showers and storms will push towards the coast and out into the Atlantic waters in late evening into the overnight hours. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. Above normal temperatures persist, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s, to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast on Wednesday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10- 15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday night, and mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Tuesday... A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A weak frontal boundary will stall over northern Florida before washing out north of the local area later today. High pressure will then dominate the local waters by mid week with generally favorable boating conditions through the period. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on today will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to around 15 KT on Wednesday, and 15-20 KT on Thursday and Friday before diminishing to around 15 KT once again on Saturday. Seas will be 3- 4ft will build to 4-5ft on Thursday before subsiding to 3-4ft on Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend, except for isolated to scattered showers mainly north of Cape Canaveral today and tonight. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 IFR/LIFR stratus and patchy fog spreading east from FL gulf coast and will affect LEE/MCO/SFB/DAB into the morning hours. Stratus may linger til 14Z-15Z at some interior terminals then VFR with W/SW wind less than 10 knots. E/SE wind shift will occur at coastal terminals 16Z-18Z at 10-12 knots behind the sea breeze. Scattered SHRA/TSRA forecast to develop aft 20Z along sea breeze collision roughly along the I 4 corridor. Have introduced a PROB30 for MVFR TSRA at terminals DAB/SFB/MCO/ISM from 22Z-02Z. Some of these may get upgraded to TEMPOs once the convective evolution and timing becomes clearer later Tue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 68 85 69 / 30 20 10 0 MCO 89 70 87 71 / 30 20 10 0 MLB 85 69 84 71 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 87 69 90 71 / 20 10 10 10 SFB 89 69 89 70 / 30 20 0 0 ORL 89 71 89 71 / 30 20 10 0 FPR 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225088 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 207 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Apr 01 2025 -Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching the lower 90s west of I-95. -Isolated showers and storms Tuesday before becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The combination of a weak mid-level disturbance, sea breeze boundaries, and moderate instability has been enough to spark scattered showers and storms this evening. We have had reports of small hail and gusts to over 40 mph. This activity should concentrate from Brevard to Osceola Counties southeastward through mid-evening before diminishing and/or pushing offshore. Strong storms remain possible, and a rogue severe storm remains a low but non-zero threat. Overnight, quieter conditions return but the potential for patchy dense fog development exists, particularly near and west of Greater Orlando. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Current-Tonight...A rough start earlier today with the low clouds and patchy fog around, in part, from the moisture from last evening`s storms. However, still unseasonably warm with temp maxes realizing the M80s at the coast and U80s to around 90F into the interior. This will push peak afternoon heat indices in the L90s for many locations - esp W of I-95. A weak frontal boundary continues to sag into the Deep South and will settle across the Gulf Coast States and north Florida late today/evening. SSW/SW winds this aftn 8-12 mph across the interior and 10-15 mph at the coast, though winds "back" to ESE/SE here with a delayed sea breeze later in the afternoon. There will be minimal movement inland or it may just be pinned along the coast, esp along the Volusia coast - should it develop this far north. The WCSB will push well inland with ISOLD-WDLY SCT convective coverage in association, and expect a collision this evening across the eastern peninsula with its EC counterpart which could promote ISOLD coverage itself ahead of any collision. SCT showers/lightning storms will result from the collision of both boundaries near the east coast and steering flow (WRLY) aloft will take this activity out across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters this evening. A few storms could be locally strong near the coast with frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to around 50 mph, small hail, and torrential downpours. There will be a modest increase in PWATs (1.50- 1.70 inches) near any sea breeze or mesoscale boundary collisions across our coastal counties. Temps aloft remain fairly cool (H500: -10C to -11C). Land areas will remain dry later this evening and overnight as SW winds become light. Overnight mins continue mild and in the 60s areawide. Expect some thinning of skies thru the night from the earlier convection. There may be some patchy fog formation at least across the I-4 corridor and perhaps thru central Osceola/north Brevard; cannot rule out some patchy fog southward thru the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County as well, but low confidence has kept inclusion absent for these areas presently. Tue-Tue Night...Mainly zonal flow aloft in the mid-levels with no significant shortwave activity across the region as high pressure begins to amplify late in the period NE of the Bahamas. At the surface, the former frontal boundary to the north becomes diffuse and washes out. Some ongoing convection out ahead of this feature may approach Lake/Volusia counties late morning or early afternoon if it is able to hold together and/or re-generate. The pressure gradient is weak with light "offshore" morning winds transitioning onshore in the afternoon along the coast as the ECSB develops and pushes inland. With some residual moisture around from the previous boundary and a likely sea breeze collision over the interior in the afternoon, we could see ISOLD shower and storm development late in the day/early evening, and generally from central Osceola-central Brevard northward. Steering flow remains WRLY, so any activity able to develop will either diminish or move off of the Volusia/Brevard coasts by around mid-evening, with dry conditions overnight. Above normal temperatures continue, with highs in the U80s across the interior and L-M80s along the coast. Min temps will fall into the M- U60s, to 70F in the Greater Orlando area. Wed-Mon...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...Mid-upper level high pressure across the western Atlc will extend back across the Florida peninsula and dominate local weather while finally weakening and slowly shifting eastward late in the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast on Tuesday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through early next week, with associated ridge axis east-west oriented north of the area, but shifting further south across the central FL peninsula later in the weekend. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sun and southwest on Mon with the approach of the next frontal boundary. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon through the weekend. No mentionable rain chances, yet, through the weekend, with rain chances (20-40 percent) returning on Mon ahead of the frontal boundary. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching the U80s to L90s across the interior, and L-M80s along the coast. Peak afternoon heat indices will approach L90s each day, mainly W of I-95. Overnight mins mainly in the 60s areawide - also well above climo. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Remainder of Afternoon-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary lies north of the local waters, hence SW winds out ahead of it, though they will "back" this afternoon to S/SE with sea breeze formation along the coast. Speeds 8-15 kts. Winds will again veer SW/W later this evening/overnight, post evening convection. Late day showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop inland or along the coast as there will be a sea breeze collision across the eastern peninsula. Steering flow will take these ISOLD-SCT storms off of the coast and across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters into this evening. A few storms could be strong with primary affects cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, torrential downpours, and perhaps a brief waterspout. Mariners should keep an eye to the sky late today/early evening for developing/approaching storms. Else, seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet). Winds/seas locally higher invof storms. Tue-Fri...Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...A weak frontal boundary will stall over northern Florida before washing out on Tue. High pressure will then dominate the local waters by mid-week with generally favorable boating conditions through the period. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on Tue will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to around 15 KT on Wed, and 15-20 KT on Thu before diminishing to around 15 KT once again on Fri. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through late week, except for isolated to scattered showers mainly north of Sebastian Inlet on Tue and Tue night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 IFR/LIFR stratus and patchy fog spreading east from FL gulf coast and will affect LEE/MCO/SFB/DAB into the morning hours. Stratus may linger til 14Z-15Z at some interior terminals then VFR with W/SW wind less than 10 knots. E/SE wind shift will occur at coastal terminals 16Z-18Z at 10-12 knots behind the sea breeze. Scattered SHRA/TSRA forecast to develop aft 20Z along sea breeze collision roughly along the I 4 corridor. Have introduced a PROB30 for MVFR TSRA at terminals DAB/SFB/MCO/ISM from 22Z-02Z. Some of these may get upgraded to TEMPOs once the convective evolution and timing becomes clearer later Tue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 68 85 69 / 30 20 10 0 MCO 89 70 87 71 / 30 20 10 0 MLB 85 69 84 71 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 87 69 90 71 / 20 10 10 10 SFB 89 69 89 70 / 30 20 0 0 ORL 89 71 89 71 / 30 20 10 0 FPR 87 69 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
