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| #1252598 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1127 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 - A couple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, first focused over interior southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama near and prior to daybreak Tuesday, then overspreading the rest of the area late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. - A Small Craft Advisory is likely going to be needed for much of the marine area Wednesday night through Thursday morning, potentially lingering into the weekend for the offshore waters. - A Moderate rip current risk exists for local beaches Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Cool and dry weather this morning is expected with temperatures starting off in the lower to middle 50`s. A warm air advection regime takes shape during the day allowing for moisture return and temperatures to warm amply into the upper 70`s to near 80 once again. A warm front lifts onshore today with richer low level theta-e values moving over the area late tonight into Tuesday. A shortwave pushes across the area during the overnight hours into daybreak Tuesday, potentially sparking off a few showers and storms over interior portions of southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama. A storm or two could be strong to severe with a threat for a damaging wind gust, tornado, and/or large hail. Ample shear will be present across the area in the vicinity of the warm front with large, curved low level hodographs yielding around 200 to 250 m2/s2 sfc-1km SRH, with some CAMs indicating these values exceeding 300 m2/s2. Given the magnitude of shear in place, if a storm were to become mature enough to produce a tornado, a strong tornado could not be ruled out. There is some expectation for some uptrend in low level moisture quality, recently depicted fairly well by the latest CAM suite, which should yield somewhere around 500 to 1,000j/kg of MLCAPE near or prior to daybreak Tuesday in the aforementioned areas. This will set the stage for the potential of organized thunderstorms, potentially in the form of semi- discrete supercells, near and prior to daybreak Tuesday capable of all severe hazards. There are some caveats to this forecast, one being the magnitude of forcing which will limit the overall threat, and the other being how quickly moisture return occurs. If either the forcing or the moisture return is more meager than currently expected, we may generously end up with a few showers and a rumble of thunder or two. However, if forcing is adequate and moisture return performs as currently modeled, then we could have some problems early Tuesday morning. The overall threat doesn`t end there. The lead shortwave shifts northeast and then the main trough begins to impinge on the area during the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the west. The entire forecast area is expected to destabilize quite a bit with morning and afternoon MLCAPE values getting up to near 1,500j/kg. Hodographs will diminish slightly, however remaining modestly large and curved with around 100 to 200 m2/s2 low level SRH. 3CAPE values increase to near 150j/kg, with storm relative wind diminishing to near 25 knots. This will support mini spinnies within a potential prefrontal trough that is currently depicted by recent CAMs to set up near the I-65 corridor. Given ample shear and strong low level stretching potential for any updraft, any storm that can mature and produce a tornado would still be capable of producing a strong tornado. However, a similar question remains on just how strong our forcing will be, particularly by the late afternoon into evening hours. One thing that could supplement thunderstorm development would be the aforementioned pre- frontal. This would help focus low level convergence and generate thunderstorms along it within an environment that remains favorable for all severe hazards. Despite this, the overall expectation is for isolated coverage of severe thunderstorms, mainly in the form of discrete to semi- discrete supercells, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. This threat may linger into the evening hours prior to the passage of the cold front late evening into the overnight hours, however overall shear magnitude and instability begins to wane rather quickly as we get into the late afternoon and early evening hours as the forcing departs in combination with loss of daytime heating. As we head into Wednesday, cold advection takes hold with the area quickly drying out and cooling off. We will generally be looking at below normal highs and lows to round out the week, with Thanksgiving featuring highs in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s. Overnight lows will be well below normal for this time of year in the lower to middle 30`s Thursday night and a touch warmer in the middle to upper 30`s Friday night. A freeze may be possible over interior counties of southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama. As we head into the weekend we begin another warm air advection regime with highs steadily warming back to above normal by Sunday in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s. This will all be ahead of our next potential impactful weather system as we get into the early part of next week. While there is substantial variability in the overall pattern evolution, another severe weather setup may present itself sometime late this weekend into early next week as we enter an active weather pattern for the first week of December. A Low risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a Moderate risk for Tuesday through Wednesday night. A Low risk of rip currents will once again return to our beaches as we get into the latter part of the week. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 After dealing with a stubborn stratus deck that presented IFR flight categories across the TAF sites it appears that is finally eroding and giving way to mostly VFR flight categories across the area. With that said, a few spots have managed to develop patchy fog, with even some patchy dense fog being noted recently near the I-65 corridor near Evergreen and Greenville. The expectation is for this to remain patchy, with localized IFR and below ceilings/visibility possible through daybreak. VFR flight category then prevails for the rest of the day into tonight. Winds will gradually shift from northerly to southerly after daybreak at around 5 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Light northerly winds become southeasterly today with a light to moderate southerly flow following for Tuesday. Winds shift out of the northwest to north on Wednesday as a cold front moves through with a moderate to strong offshore flow for Wednesday night through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for most marine waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, potentially lingering in the offshore waters into the weekend. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 77 53 77 64 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 78 58 76 67 / 0 0 0 20 Destin 77 59 75 66 / 0 0 0 30 Evergreen 79 50 80 60 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 71 49 77 60 / 0 0 0 40 Camden 74 49 78 58 / 0 0 0 20 Crestview 79 50 78 61 / 0 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
