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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1225147 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 01.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 142 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Inland fog and low stratus should burn off over the next couple hrs. The Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 10AM EDT as observations show improving visibility. For the rest of today, we will monitor trends for potential seabreeze convection, for which there is a low chance for. Otherwise, look for mostly fair weather and warm conditions. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the forecast area, depending on how fast the low clouds break this morning. Light southerly flow is expected this afternoon and overnight as an upper level trough digs well west of the area with ridging centered east of the area. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 60s with another chance of fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Upper level ridging will build over the region for the short term. This will keep the area warm and dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s. At the surface, we will be somewhat "sandwiched" in between a high pressure system to our east, and low pressure to our west. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to a breezy Wednesday into Thursday until the surface high takes control. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will maintain a hold over the region for most of the weekend. We can expect temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland, with mid 80s along the coast and dry conditions. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s ahead of a frontal system. The frontal system will approach the region late Sunday heading into Monday that will be our next best chance for rain and cooler temperatures. PoPs range from 30-60%. There is uncertainty regarding the timing and whether or not this system may produce any severe weather. We will continue to monitor and provide further updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Mainly VFR conds prevail thru the aftn and early evening under lgt southerly to variable winds. The main concern for tonight-tmrw morning is widespread fog/low stratus. Confidence is high in LIFR- VLIFR cigs blanketing all terminals and approaching airport minimums. Fog potential is greatest at the FL sites, some of which is likely to become dense near sunrise. Conditions should improve mid to late morning as winds increase out of the SE. && .MARINE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a south wind near 10 kts, 2-3-ft seas, and a dominant period of 6 seconds late this morning. Its panoramic webcam also shows sea fog. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for all waters until tomorrow afternoon. CWF Synopsis: Dense sea fog will be the main concern today, tonight, and tomorrow. In addition, showers with isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast across the offshore legs until early this afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate breezes prevail for most of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Weak southerly flow is expected to develop today. Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the work week, though minimum RH values will remain above critical thresholds thanks to continued southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday basically areawide. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Little to no rain is expected over the next several days. There are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 65 86 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 78 67 82 68 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 82 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 64 89 67 / 0 20 10 10 Valdosta 85 65 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 82 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 10 Apalachicola 75 67 76 68 / 10 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1225134 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1048 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Inland fog and low stratus should burn off over the next couple hrs. The Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 10AM EDT as observations show improving visibility. For the rest of today, we will monitor trends for potential seabreeze convection, for which there is a low chance for. Otherwise, look for mostly fair weather and warm conditions. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the forecast area, depending on how fast the low clouds break this morning. Light southerly flow is expected this afternoon and overnight as an upper level trough digs well west of the area with ridging centered east of the area. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 60s with another chance of fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Upper level ridging will build over the region for the short term. This will keep the area warm and dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s. At the surface, we will be somewhat "sandwiched" in between a high pressure system to our east, and low pressure to our west. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to a breezy Wednesday into Thursday until the surface high takes control. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will maintain a hold over the region for most of the weekend. We can expect temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland, with mid 80s along the coast and dry conditions. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s ahead of a frontal system. The frontal system will approach the region late Sunday heading into Monday that will be our next best chance for rain and cooler temperatures. PoPs range from 30-60%. There is uncertainty regarding the timing and whether or not this system may produce any severe weather. We will continue to monitor and provide further updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid-morning across the region. The low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning later today with a light southerly breeze. For tonight, another round of fog and low ceilings are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a south wind near 10 kts, 2-3-ft seas, and a dominant period of 6 seconds late this morning. Its panoramic webcam also shows sea fog. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for all waters until tomorrow afternoon. CWF Synopsis: Dense sea fog will be the main concern today, tonight, and tomorrow. In addition, showers with isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast across the offshore legs until early this afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate breezes prevail for most of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Weak southerly flow is expected to develop today. Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the work week, though minimum RH values will remain above critical thresholds thanks to continued southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday basically areawide. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Little to no rain is expected over the next several days. There are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 65 86 67 / 10 10 0 0 Panama City 78 67 82 68 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 82 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 64 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 85 65 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 82 65 90 66 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 75 67 76 68 / 10 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1225110 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 615 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the forecast area, depending on how fast the low clouds break this morning. Light southerly flow is expected this afternoon and overnight as an upper level trough digs well west of the area with ridging centered east of the area. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 60s with another chance of fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Upper level ridging will build over the region for the short term. This will keep the area warm and dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s. At the surface, we will be somewhat "sandwiched" in between a high pressure system to our east, and low pressure to our west. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to a breezy Wednesday into Thursday until the surface high takes control. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will maintain a hold over the region for most of the weekend. We can expect temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland, with mid 80s along the coast and dry conditions. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s ahead of a frontal system. The frontal system will approach the region late Sunday heading into Monday that will be our next best chance for rain and cooler temperatures. PoPs range from 30-60%. There is uncertainty regarding the timing and whether or not this system may produce any severe weather. We will continue to monitor and provide further updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid-morning across the region. The low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning later today with a light southerly breeze. For tonight, another round of fog and low ceilings are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Favorable boating conditions return today; however, briefly. Winds and seas will increase on Wednesday to Cautionary level to near Advisory levels as southeasterly flow continues through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Weak southerly flow is expected to develop today. Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the work week, though minimum RH values will remain above critical thresholds thanks to continued southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday basically areawide. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Little to no rain is expected over the next several days. There are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 65 86 67 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 78 67 82 68 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 82 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 64 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 85 65 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 82 65 90 66 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 75 67 76 68 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225089 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 218 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to generally range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the forecast area, depending on how fast the low clouds break this morning. Light southerly flow is expected this afternoon and overnight as an upper level trough digs well west of the area with ridging centered east of the area. Lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 60s with another chance of fog. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Upper level ridging will build over the region for the short term. This will keep the area warm and dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s. At the surface, we will be somewhat "sandwiched" in between a high pressure system to our east, and low pressure to our west. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to a breezy Wednesday into Thursday until the surface high takes control. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will maintain a hold over the region for most of the weekend. We can expect temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland, with mid 80s along the coast and dry conditions. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s ahead of a frontal system. The frontal system will approach the region late Sunday heading into Monday that will be our next best chance for rain and cooler temperatures. PoPs range from 30-60%. There is uncertainty regarding the timing and whether or not this system may produce any severe weather. We will continue to monitor and provide further updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid- morning across the region. Any low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning and a light southerly breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Favorable boating conditions return today; however, briefly. Winds and seas will increase on Wednesday to Cautionary level to near Advisory levels as southeasterly flow continues through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Weak southerly flow is expected to develop today. Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the work week, though minimum RH values will remain above critical thresholds thanks to continued southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday basically areawide. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Little to no rain is expected over the next several days. There are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 65 86 67 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 78 67 82 68 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 82 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 64 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 85 65 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 82 65 90 66 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 75 67 76 68 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225082 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 01.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 137 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 All showers and thunderstorms have ended across the area. Still can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or two later tonight as the front sags into our area. The main concern for tonight remains the potential for fog. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a patch of low stratus and fog developing from Quincy and Tallahassee to Moody AFB. Expect more fog development through the night. Otherwise, adjusted temperatures a bit given current observations, which resulted in needing to lower lows by a degree or two. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The severe weather threat should be ending this evening as the squall line culprit exits to our east. Lingering showers with rumbles of thunder are possible tonight as the associated front makes its eastward push from the MS Valley. Hi-resolution models like the HRRR show convective redevelopment over Apalachee Bay into portions of the East FL Big Bend overnight, so slight-chance PoPs (20-30%) are maintained in the forecast to account. An extensive area of low stratus is then expected to blanket the region late tonight with patches to areas of fog embedded. The latter may be locally dense at times, particularly where it rained the most. The front`s nocturnal passage will lead to somewhat of a NW to SE gradient in low temperatures - ranging from upper 50s in the Wiregrass to upper mid/upper 60s along/SE of a Panama City- Tallahassee-Valdosta line. Fair weather prevails tomorrow with fog/low stratus giving way to partly cloudy skies mid to late morning. Forecast highs are in the low 80s with decent early-April sunshine. An afternoon seabreeze prompts some fair-weather cumulus spreading from the coast to the I- 10 corridor. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Fairly benign conditions are expected behind today`s cold front as surface high pressure and upper level ridging settles over the region. On Wednesday, southeasterly flow becomes established and persists into the weekend. This will lead to dew points in the 60s and muggy conditions prevailing. Although ridging is overhead and subsidence will prohibit storm development, with PoPs near nil, diurnal heating and the sea breeze may be able to squeeze out some fairly local shortlived showers. Otherwise, our next frontal system looks to approach the region late on Sunday into early next week. There`s some model guidance along with CPC outlooks beyond the long term that indicate a brief but sharp cool down in temperatures. Stay tuned to for additional updates as we get closer to this weekend. Expect daytime highs to increase from midweek into this weekend into the mid 80s to low 90s. Expect overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid-morning across the region. Any low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning and a light southerly breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 A line of showers and storms is currently moving across the NE Gulf waters and is expected to be through by this evening. Winds and seas will gradually decrease through Wednesday before picking back up as southeasterly flow becomes established. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The main concerns for tomorrow are fog/low stratus, followed by pockets of low dispersions in the early afternoon. Weak southerly flow is expected with an afternoon seabreeze developing. Dry weather prevails the remainder of the work week, though min RH stays healthily above critical thresholds thanks to continued southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday basically areawide. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Generally, around an inch and a half of rain is expected through the next week, there are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 65 86 67 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 79 67 81 68 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 82 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 83 62 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 85 65 91 69 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 83 63 90 67 / 10 10 10 0 Apalachicola 76 66 76 68 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ735. && $$ |
