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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1260587 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 155 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. There is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions on Monday for the aforementioned area. - Marine and beach hazards include a Gale Warning for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola into Monday afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through tonight for the Gulf beaches. The water will be hazardous for boaters and all levels of swimmers. - Very windy today with Northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph with peak gusts around 40 mph across Southeast AL, Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. - A significant cooldown is underway with temperatures turning below normal through Tuesday. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 152 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Winds will continue to be gusty through tonight as Cold Air Advection continues to push through following yesterday`s cold front. As a result, temperatures will be falling through the night into the low 30s and upper 20s by daybreak Monday. The elevated winds will cause apparent temperatures to be very cold with wind chills in the low 20s. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for tonight for the entire CWA, excluding the coastal zones. Expect breezy conditions to continue during the day on Monday with temperatures for the afternoon in the upper 40s north of I-10, and low 50s to the south. Winds will start to relax as the sun sets Monday evening. Lighter winds and clear skies will keep the region cold as we can expect radiational cooling. Actual temperatures will likely fall to the mid and upper 20s for Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory for Monday night may be required and there is about a 50% chance for a hard freeze in our GA counties. Temperatures will gradually start to warm during the day Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s with light westerly winds. Tuesday morning will likely have frost throughout the area as we will be below freezing in the morning with light winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 152 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Temperatures will continue to warm as we start the long term heading into the weekend. A cold front will again approach the region late Thursday into Friday, bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. PoPs at this moment are about 40-80 percent with higher chances to the northwest. Temperatures won`t take much of a hit with this frontal passage with highs remaining in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through tomorrow, gusts around 30-35 knots today become 20-25 knots tomorrow. Gusty winds will continue even during the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front plowed across the waters early this morning and is being followed by gale and near-gale northwesterlies. A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola and has been extended into Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night. Seas offshore will peak around 7 to 10 feet on Monday morning. Northwest winds will subside on Tuesday with more tranquil boating conditions by Tuesday night. That may be short- lived, with a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of advisory-level conditions centered on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, sea fog may return, especially over Apalachee Bay. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold frontal passage early this morning sets the stage for brisk northwest winds today through Monday, as well as a very dry air mass through Tuesday. For today, Significant Fire Potential is highest in the FL Big Bend, where 20ft winds increase to around 15 mph and minimum afternoon RH falls into the mid-20s. These factors meet the criteria for red flag conditions, thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening, as any fire ignitions may get quickly out of control. On Monday, there is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions for portions of the FL Big Bend. At this time, we`re not meeting the 20ft wind criteria for red flag conditIons on Monday in the FL Big Bend. Otherwise, expect high dispersion today and again Monday over much of the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 152 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Drought continues and no flooding is expected over the next week. For local drought info & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 33 50 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 35 53 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 30 47 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 29 47 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 30 50 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 32 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 35 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ007>013-016-017-108-112-114-326. Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>013-016>019-027>029-034-326-426. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ015-017>019- 027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for FLZ108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ114. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ115. GA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for ALZ065>069. Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765- 775. Gale Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ735. Gale Warning until noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1260572 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1235 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1232 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. There is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions on Monday for the aforementioned area. - Marine and beach hazards include a Gale Warning for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola into Monday afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through tonight for the Gulf beaches. The water will be hazardous for boaters and all levels of swimmers. - Very windy today with Northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph with peak gusts around 40 mph across Southeast AL, Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. - A significant cooldown is underway with temperatures turning below normal through Tuesday. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A much colder/drier air mass today and windy in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures, at least outside of the Southeast FL Big Bend, will occur early this morning as strong CAA gets underway. Afternoon temperatures will hover in the low- 50s northwest to low-60s southeast. The strong CAA contributes to steep low-level lapse rates with pressure rises on the order of ~1 mb/hr. A well mixed layer features winds around 35 kts about two-thirds of the way up, and this momentum will transfer to the surface in the form of wind gusts around 40 mph in the Wind Advisory area. The Wind Advisory covers Southeast AL, the Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect this afternoon and evening for much of the FL Big Bend due to critically low relative humidity, along with strong winds and dry fuels from the ongoing drought. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Finally, a high rip current risk is expected for Gulf beaches through tonight as the water will be hazardous for all levels of swimmers. Highs on Monday only in the mid-40s to mid-50s modify to highs in the middle and upper 50s Tuesday. Continued breezy on Monday with wind gusts around 25 mph, diminishing on Monday night. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise on Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A warming trend takes place from mid to late week, with a chance of showers returning Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Fog is also possible by Wednesday or Thursday morning. Brisk southerly flow will build surf midweek, leading to a high rip current risk along much of the Gulf beaches on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through tomorrow, gusts around 30-35 knots today become 20-25 knots tomorrow. Gusty winds will continue even during the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Fog which may be dense will diminish from west to east this morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola and has been extended into Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night. Seas offshore peak around 7 to 10 feet on Monday morning. Northwest winds will subside on Tuesday with more tranquil boating conditions by Tuesday night. That may be short-lived, with a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of advisory-level conditions centered on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, sea fog may return, especially over Apalachee Bay. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold frontal passage this morning sets the stage for brisk northwest winds today and Monday, as well as a very dry air mass through Tuesday. For today, Significant Fire Potential is highest in the FL Big Bend, where 20ft winds increase to around 15 mph and minimum afternoon RH falls into the mid-20s. These factors meet the criteria for red flag conditions, thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening, as any fire ignitions may get quickly out of control. On Monday, there is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions for portions of the FL Big Bend. At this time, we`re not meeting the 20ft wind criteria for red flag conditIons on Monday in the FL Big Bend. Otherwise, expect high dispersion today and again Monday over much of the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Drought continues and no flooding is expected over the next week. For local drought info & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 33 50 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 35 53 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 30 47 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 29 47 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 30 50 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 32 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 35 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ007>013-016-017-108-112-114-326. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ015-017>019- 027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for FLZ114. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ115. GA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. AL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765- 775. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ735. Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1260569 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 958 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 957 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. There is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions on Monday for the aforementioned area. - Marine and beach hazards include a Gale Warning for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola into Monday afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through tonight for the Gulf beaches. The water will be hazardous for boaters and all levels of swimmers. - Very windy today with Northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph with peak gusts around 40 mph across Southeast AL, Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. - A significant cooldown is underway with temperatures turning below normal through Tuesday. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 957 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 The forecast is on track, updates don`t appear necessary this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A much colder/drier air mass today and windy in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures, at least outside of the Southeast FL Big Bend, will occur early this morning as strong CAA gets underway. Afternoon temperatures will hover in the low- 50s northwest to low-60s southeast. The strong CAA contributes to steep low-level lapse rates with pressure rises on the order of ~1 mb/hr. A well mixed layer features winds around 35 kts about two-thirds of the way up, and this momentum will transfer to the surface in the form of wind gusts around 40 mph in the Wind Advisory area. The Wind Advisory covers Southeast AL, the Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect this afternoon and evening for much of the FL Big Bend due to critically low relative humidity, along with strong winds and dry fuels from the ongoing drought. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Finally, a high rip current risk is expected for Gulf beaches through tonight as the water will be hazardous for all levels of swimmers. Highs on Monday only in the mid-40s to mid-50s modify to highs in the middle and upper 50s Tuesday. Continued breezy on Monday with wind gusts around 25 mph, diminishing on Monday night. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise on Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A warming trend takes place from mid to late week, with a chance of showers returning Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Fog is also possible by Wednesday or Thursday morning. Brisk southerly flow will build surf midweek, leading to a high rip current risk along much of the Gulf beaches on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 In the wake of an earlier cold front, strong and gusty northwest winds will affect all terminals today. Gusts of 30+ knots should be expected. A dry air mass and large-scale subsidence will lead to clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Fog which may be dense will diminish from west to east this morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola and has been extended into Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night. Seas offshore peak around 7 to 10 feet on Monday morning. Northwest winds will subside on Tuesday with more tranquil boating conditions by Tuesday night. That may be short-lived, with a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of advisory-level conditions centered on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, sea fog may return, especially over Apalachee Bay. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold frontal passage this morning sets the stage for brisk northwest winds today and Monday, as well as a very dry air mass through Tuesday. For today, Significant Fire Potential is highest in the FL Big Bend, where 20ft winds increase to around 15 mph and minimum afternoon RH falls into the mid-20s. These factors meet the criteria for red flag conditions, thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening, as any fire ignitions may get quickly out of control. On Monday, there is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions for portions of the FL Big Bend. At this time, we`re not meeting the 20ft wind criteria for red flag conditIons on Monday in the FL Big Bend. Otherwise, expect high dispersion today and again Monday over much of the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Drought continues and no flooding is expected over the next week. For local drought info & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 33 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 58 35 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 54 31 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 55 29 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 31 49 25 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 65 33 55 27 / 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 60 35 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ007>013-016-108-112-114-326. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ015-017>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134- 426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ114. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ115. GA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>158. AL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765- 775. Gale Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ735. Gale Warning until noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1260557 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 620 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. There is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions on Monday for the aforementioned area. - Marine and beach hazards include a Gale Warning for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola into Monday afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through tonight for the Gulf beaches. The water will be hazardous for boaters and all levels of swimmers. - Very windy today with Northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph with peak gusts around 40 mph across Southeast AL, Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. - A significant cooldown is underway with temperatures turning below normal through Tuesday. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A much colder/drier air mass today and windy in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures, at least outside of the Southeast FL Big Bend, will occur early this morning as strong CAA gets underway. Afternoon temperatures will hover in the low- 50s northwest to low-60s southeast. The strong CAA contributes to steep low-level lapse rates with pressure rises on the order of ~1 mb/hr. A well mixed layer features winds around 35 kts about two-thirds of the way up, and this momentum will transfer to the surface in the form of wind gusts around 40 mph in the Wind Advisory area. The Wind Advisory covers Southeast AL, the Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect this afternoon and evening for much of the FL Big Bend due to critically low relative humidity, along with strong winds and dry fuels from the ongoing drought. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Finally, a high rip current risk is expected for Gulf beaches through tonight as the water will be hazardous for all levels of swimmers. Highs on Monday only in the mid-40s to mid-50s modify to highs in the middle and upper 50s Tuesday. Continued breezy on Monday with wind gusts around 25 mph, diminishing on Monday night. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise on Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A warming trend takes place from mid to late week, with a chance of showers returning Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Fog is also possible by Wednesday or Thursday morning. Brisk southerly flow will build surf midweek, leading to a high rip current risk along much of the Gulf beaches on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 In the wake of an earlier cold front, strong and gusty northwest winds will affect all terminals today. Gusts of 30+ knots should be expected. A dry air mass and large-scale subsidence will lead to clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Fog which may be dense will diminish from west to east this morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola and has been extended into Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night. Seas offshore peak around 7 to 10 feet on Monday morning. Northwest winds will subside on Tuesday with more tranquil boating conditions by Tuesday night. That may be short-lived, with a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of advisory-level conditions centered on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, sea fog may return, especially over Apalachee Bay. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold frontal passage this morning sets the stage for brisk northwest winds today and Monday, as well as a very dry air mass through Tuesday. For today, Significant Fire Potential is highest in the FL Big Bend, where 20ft winds increase to around 15 mph and minimum afternoon RH falls into the mid-20s. These factors meet the criteria for red flag conditions, thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening, as any fire ignitions may get quickly out of control. On Monday, there is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions for portions of the FL Big Bend. At this time, we`re not meeting the 20ft wind criteria for red flag conditIons on Monday in the FL Big Bend. Otherwise, expect high dispersion today and again Monday over much of the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Drought continues and no flooding is expected over the next week. For local drought info & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 33 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 60 35 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 55 31 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 56 29 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 31 49 25 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 70 33 55 27 / 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 61 35 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ007>013-016-108-112-114-326. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ015-017>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134- 426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ114. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115. GA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>158. AL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765- 775. Gale Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ735. Gale Warning until noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1260542 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 245 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. There is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions on Monday for the aforementioned area. - Marine and beach hazards include dense fog diminishing from west to east this morning, a Gale Warning for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola into Monday afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night, and a High Risk of Rip Currents through tonight for the Gulf beaches. The water will be hazardous for boaters and all levels of swimmers. - Very windy today with Northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph with peak gusts around 40 mph across Southeast AL, Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. - A significant cooldown is underway with temperatures turning below normal through Tuesday. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A much colder/drier air mass today and windy in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures, at least outside of the Southeast FL Big Bend, will occur early this morning as strong CAA gets underway. Afternoon temperatures will hover in the low- 50s northwest to low-60s southeast. The strong CAA contributes to steep low-level lapse rates with pressure rises on the order of ~1 mb/hr. A well mixed layer features winds around 35 kts about two-thirds of the way up, and this momentum will transfer to the surface in the form of wind gusts around 40 mph in the Wind Advisory area. The Wind Advisory covers Southeast AL, the Eastern FL Panhandle, portions of Southwest GA, and FL Big Bend. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects, tree limbs could be blown down, and a few power outages may result. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect this afternoon and evening for much of the FL Big Bend due to critically low relative humidity, along with strong winds and dry fuels from the ongoing drought. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Finally, a high rip current risk is expected for Gulf beaches through tonight as the water will be hazardous for all levels of swimmers. Highs on Monday only in the mid-40s to mid-50s modify to highs in the middle and upper 50s Tuesday. Continued breezy on Monday with wind gusts around 25 mph, diminishing on Monday night. There is a medium (50 percent) chance of meeting cold weather advisory criteria for a couple hours either side of sunrise on Monday and Tuesday mornings and a "Hard" Freeze Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A warming trend takes place from mid to late week, with a chance of showers returning Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Fog is also possible by Wednesday or Thursday morning. Brisk southerly flow will build surf midweek, leading to a high rip current risk along much of the Gulf beaches on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will pass the terminals during the upcoming pre-dawn hours. In the last few hours before frontal passage, a few areas of light rain and showers could briefly impact any of the terminals. Once the front passes, a shift to strong and gusty northwest winds will occur. Dry air will quickly scour out any remaining lower clouds. A couple hour after sunrise, even stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface, and strong subsidence will bring clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Fog which may be dense will diminish from west to east this morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola and has been extended into Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters east of Apalachicola into Monday night. Seas offshore peak around 7 to 10 feet on Monday morning. Northwest winds will subside on Tuesday with more tranquil boating conditions by Tuesday night. That may be short-lived, with a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of advisory-level conditions centered on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, sea fog may return, especially over Apalachee Bay. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold frontal passage this morning sets the stage for brisk northwest winds today and Monday, as well as a very dry air mass through Tuesday. For today, Significant Fire Potential is highest in the FL Big Bend, where 20ft winds increase to around 15 mph and minimum afternoon RH falls into the mid-20s. These factors meet the criteria for red flag conditions, thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening, as any fire ignitions may get quickly out of control. On Monday, there is a medium (40 to 70 percent) chance of critical fire weather conditions for portions of the FL Big Bend. At this time, we`re not meeting the 20ft wind criteria for red flag conditIons on Monday in the FL Big Bend. Otherwise, expect high dispersion today and again Monday over much of the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 105 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Drought continues and no flooding is expected over the next week. For local drought info & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 33 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 60 35 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 55 31 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 56 29 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 31 49 25 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 70 33 55 27 / 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 61 35 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ007>013-016-108-112-114-326. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ015-017>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134- 426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ114. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115. GA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>158. AL...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for ALZ065>069. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM CST early this morning for GMZ735- 751-752. Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ735. Gale Warning until noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1260529 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1240 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 - There is a medium (60-70 percent) chance of another round of dense fog tonight, generally around Apalachee Bay. - There is a Red Flag Warning in effect tomorrow afternoon across the Florida Big Bend due to critically low humidity and gusty winds. - Marine and beach hazards include a Gale Warning for the coastal waters west of Apalachicola late tonight through Monday morning, with a Small Craft Advisory for the waters east of Apalachicola, and a high risk of rip currents today through Sunday and Monday at the Gulf beaches. - Well below average temperatures expected Sunday through Tuesday. The chance of meeting the cold weather advisory criteria is low (30 percent) Monday morning and medium (40-60 percent) Tuesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 759 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Outside of one severe storm earlier this afternoon, storms have largely failed to become organized or strong enough to produce much severe weather concerned. Rain cooled air is already moving into the Florida Panhandle from earlier storms in Alabama, and a plume of showers from Wakulla County up to Ben Hill County has likely helped stabilize things a bit more farther east. As a result, SPC has removed the marginal risk of severe weather from our area. Now, that`s not to say that strong storms aren`t expected. We still have enough instability to see some gusty winds and small hail with the stronger storms. But, the risk of severe weather is quickly diminishing. Otherwise, the only other update this evening has been to add a Marine Dense Fog Advisory to our nearshore Gulf waters as well as Apalachee Bay. Webcams and nighttime microphysics satellite imagery show the sea fog once again developing and moving onshore. This should dissipate as the front moves in. Some patches of dense fog will be possible near the immediate coast until then. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Scattered showers and storms are expected to gradually move south and east from SE Alabama into SW Georgia and the FL Panhandle/Big Bend over the next couple hours. Generally light to moderate rainfall is expected with embedded downpours possible. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) across portions of the FL Panhandle, SE AL and SW Georgia, for strong gusty winds and a low-end hail threat. The cold front will then pass through the region overnight into tomorrow morning with cool to cold dry air moving into the region. Cool and dry gusty conditions tomorrow afternoon will lead to elevated fire danger concerns as RHs across the FL Big Bend tank to around 25% with gusty northwest winds. As a result, we`ve issued a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow afternoon to highlight this elevated fire danger. Expect overnight lows to be in the mid 40s to the northwest and mid 50s to the southeast as cooler air moves in behind the front. Daytime highs tomorrow follow a similar pattern with highs in the mid 50s to the northwest and mid 60s across the southeast part of our area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Post-frontal, we`ll see cold dry air settle across the region through midweek, beginning to warm back up Wednesday afternoon. Fairly dry and benign conditions are expected to persist until Thursday when our next potential cold front looks to approach the region from the west. Behind tonight`s cold front we`ll see a quick cold snap dip our overnight lows into the 30s Monday morning and Wednesday morning with our chilliest period being Tuesday morning, with temps dipping into the mid to upper 20s. Limiting exposure these mornings with adequate shelter will be important to preventing hypothermia. Similarly, daytime highs dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday before warming back up into the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will pass the terminals during the upcoming pre-dawn hours. In the last few hours before frontal passage, a few areas of light rain and showers could briefly impact any of the terminals. Once the front passes, a shift to strong and gusty northwest winds will occur. Dry air will quickly scour out any remaining lower clouds. A couple hour after sunrise, even stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface, and strong subsidence will bring clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Southerly flow across the waters through this evening with seas of 3 to 4 feet just offshore. Areas of sea fog possible again tonight into Sunday morning prior to a cold frontal passage, may be dense, especially over the cooler shelf waters of the Apalachee Bay. Gale force northwest wind gusts are expected over the coastal waters to the west of Apalachicola late Sunday night through Monday morning. Meanwhile, Small Craft Advisory-level conditions are likely over the coastal waters east of Apalachicola. Seas offshore peak around 7 to 11 feet on Sunday night. Seas and winds improve heading into midweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FL BIG BEND ON SUNDAY DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS... Wetting rains are expected this afternoon through tonight, especially across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Followed by a strong cold frontal passage which ushers in a dry air mass from Sunday into early next week, when combined with gusty northwest winds will lead to elevated fire danger on Sunday. Gusty and erratic winds are possible this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Borderline high dispersion is possible near the I-75 corridor of Southwest GA this afternoon. The post-frontal air mass on Sunday features 20-ft winds around 15 mph, while RH plunges into the mid-20s to mid-30s percent during the afternoon, along with widespread high dispersion. There is currently a Red Flag Warning in effect on Sunday due to critically low RH and gusty winds across the FL Big Bend. On Monday, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist, with RH again in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent with 20-ft winds between 10- 15 mph during the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 There are no flooding concerns over the next week. Drought conditions are expected to persist across the region. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 33 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 60 35 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 55 31 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 56 29 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 31 49 25 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 70 33 55 27 / 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 61 35 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ007>013-016-108-112-114-326. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ015-017>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134- 426. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ114. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115. GA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>158. AL...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CST Sunday for ALZ065>069. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM CST Sunday for GMZ735-751-752. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 5 PM CST Sunday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752- 770-772. && $$ |
