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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1252610 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 205 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Patchy to dense fog will again have impacts to travel across the region through mid morning. - Rain chances for Wednesday remain between 40-60%, with the highest chances across Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle before tapering the more east you go. - Fire Weather concerns increase Thanksgiving Day and Friday with low relative humidity and ongoing drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 The forecast hasn`t changed much from previous forecast cycles. Winds clock around to being southeasterly this afternoon then southwesterly tomorrow ahead of our next frontal system Tuesday night into Wednesday. Dew points surge back into the mid 60s to low 70s within the warm sector. Unfortunately, as mentioned in prior forecasts, forcing for ascent looks to remain to our north. However, we`ll be in the proximity of the right entrance region of the upper- level jet streak. When coupled with a low level wind field around 20- 30 kts, we might be able to squeeze out a couple storms, but overall conditions appear unfavorable at the synoptic scale. Mesoscale diurnal instability maybe be able to overcome some of these limiting factors, if we see mostly clear skies on Wednesday. However, if we`re under extensive cloud cover, or dense fog that lasts well into the late morning hours, then our chances of seeing storms would be very low. Behind the front, we`ll see that low level wind field remain over the area through Thursday. With surging dry air on Thursday moving across the region we should see clear skies. Diurnal mixing of the boundary layer could lead to surface gusts around 20- 25 mph. With dew points in the 20s Thursday afternoon and RH values under 30%, these gusts could be particularly concerning with regard to wildfire ignitions. Fire weather concerns will be elevated on Thursday, listen to local officials regarding burn bans. Overall, precip chances look better outside our area to the northwest with a line of showers possibly approaching the region throughout Wednesday. Diurnal forcing could allow this line to advance through the region, or we could see the line begin to fall apart once it starts crossing our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties. Behind the cold front we`ll see some cold temperatures to end the week. Expect daytime highs in the first half of the week to generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Post-frontal they`ll slide down into the 60s. Overnight lows follow a similar trend, initially in the upper 50s to mid 60s, they take a dive by the end of the week, dropping into the 30s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Patchy to areas of dense fog are once again impacting area terminals this morning. IFR to LIFR conditions again remain possible. Conditions improve after sunrise and are expected to be VFR in the late morning or early afternoon hours. Another round of restrictions is expected Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Another morning fog is ongoing over the nearshore waters of Apalachee Bay. The long awaited cold front should finally push through and clear that away by mid/late morning. Winds will clock around to easterly by the early afternoon on Monday, at around 5-10 kts. Gentle to moderate southerly winds develop Tuesday ahead of an incoming cold front that will bring a few showers and storms to the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday. Northerly winds near Advisory level develop following the front Wednesday night into Thanksgiving. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 High pressure over the area keeps us dry today. Southerly flow ahead of an advancing cold front develops Tuesday. A few showers are forecast Tuesday afternoon for the western Florida Panhandle and western portions of southeastern Alabama before spreading eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the cold front. Chances for a wetting rain are medium to high (50-70 percent) for a line along and west of Panama City, FL to Albany, GA and low to medium (10-50 percent) east of that line with lower chances the more south and east you go. Much drier air filters in behind the front for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, sending MinRH values to between 15-25 percent away from the immediate coast. There is a low (10 percent) chance of winds exceeding 15 mph Thursday, so there is the potential for Critical Fire Weather conditions on Thanksgiving; of course, that will largely depend on how much rain there is Tuesday night into Wednesday and where it falls. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Rainfall amounts across the region will generally be around half an inch or less through Saturday. This mostly applies to our northwest areas in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Rain amounts quickly drop to around 0.05 inches as you head south and east from there. As of Thursday, November 19, 2025, the US Drought Monitor now has the area around the Florida-Georgia state line outlined in Exceptional Drought (D4), which is the highest category on the drought monitor. This is the first time since the 2011-2012 winter that any part of our area of responsibility has been outlined in Exceptional Drought. For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/LocalDrought. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 79 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 20 Panama City 77 64 78 66 / 0 10 20 50 Dothan 79 60 81 64 / 0 10 10 60 Albany 79 59 83 64 / 0 0 10 40 Valdosta 79 58 83 62 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 82 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 73 65 76 66 / 0 0 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ011>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ123>131- 143>148-155>161. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for GMZ730-735-755-765. && $$ |
