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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1209024 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1225 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A cold front has cleared the region. In its wake, gusty northwest winds are ushering in a significantly drier and cooler air mass. The only update this evening were minor adjustments to better mesh with current wind, temperature, and dewpoint trends. This does not affect forecast low temperatures on Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A cold front is in the midst of passing through the region this afternoon while breezy northwesterly winds continue. Surface observations also show a sharp NW-SE moisture gradient characterized by 50s dew points behind the front and 60s to low 70s ahead of it. Satellite trends affirm a rapidly drying airmass with nearly all remaining clouds clearing the I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend. Cold-air advection drives temperatures down to the 40s late tonight into tomorrow morning (isolated upper 30s). These readings a slightly below normal. Wind chills bottom out from the mid 30s to low 40s with the lowest values are forecast around the Dothan- Blakely-Albany area, which introduces cold-weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations. An expansive, negatively tilted upper trough rotating through the OH Valley will reinforce the cool & dry conditions by keeping Thursday`s high temperatures solidly in the mid 60s despite plentiful (albeit late November) sunshine - several degrees cooler than average. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Large upper low will continue through the northern Appalachians Thursday night and will meander east off the northeast coast Friday night and into southern Canada Sunday morning. The southeast US will be underneath northwest flow aloft south of the upper low and a weak shortwave will push a quick moving dry front through the area by Friday morning. Behind this cold front, surface high pressure will slide across the northern Gulf coast Friday night through Saturday night then elongate across the peninsula Monday and Tuesday. Very dry air with PWATs less than 1/2 inch will be in place through much of the weekend then slowly increase as the high center moves east of the tri-state region and return flow gets established. Late in the weekend and early next week the mid level steering pattern becomes more zonal, offering up a modest warmup as a low pressure system emerges into the midwest and a cold front enters the Tennessee Valley by the end of this period. Little, if any, rainfall is expected into early next week. High temperatures Friday may struggle to reach 60 degrees across the wiregrass and Flint river valley to low 60s at the coast after lows Friday morning in the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs Saturday will be 3-5 degrees warmer compared to Friday. Lows Saturday morning appear to be the coldest morning this period with lows in the mid 30s throughout much of the wiregrass and Flint River areas. Would not be surprised to see a few low 30s in the more outlying areas. Lows closer to the coast will reside in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Temperatures moderate heading into next work week with highs returning to the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 40s Monday morning and in the 50s Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry northwest flow will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF period. Only aviation concerns will be occasional gusts of 20 knots out of the northwest during daytime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 930 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Strong northerly breezes with near-gale gusts will prevail through Thursday morning, behind a fairly strong cold front that passed the waters during the day on Wednesday. Strong breezes will kick up again on Thursday night, but then breezes will slowly decrease through Sunday morning, while a large high pressure center moves from Texas eastward across the northern Gulf Coast. High pressure will elongate into a ridge across the eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, so a turn to south or southwest breezes will occur. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A dry, but cool post-frontal airmass persists across the region through this weekend. Breezy NW winds continue tomorrow and help bottom out RH values to the 20s. However, given the widespread rains of 1-3 inches observed yesterday and last night and forecast high temperatures mostly in the 60s with low sun angles, fire weather concerns should be minimal outside of high afternoon dispersions. Dispersions and RH improve thereafter with gradual slackening of NW winds as surface high pressure builds in from the west. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Behind today`s cold frontal passage, little if any rainfall is expected through early next week. Therefore, there are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 43 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 41 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 45 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 48 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
