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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1225267 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Low clouds have been persistent this morning across the interior after some early morning fog began to lift. However, satellite imagery continues to show this layer eroding, and at a fairly efficient pace. It should be clearing out over the next hour or so. Otherwise, today`s weather looks mostly sunny and warm. With high pressure continuing to build, the gradient is fairly tight. Thus, gusty winds, particularly in the afternoon, are expected. There is also a low, but not zero, chance for a couple more isolated storms late this afternoon, likely along the I-75 corridor. However, rain chances remain very low - only to around 10 percent or so - given that the overall setup is not particularly favorable. A couple tweaks have been made to the forecast this morning, notably adjusting wind speeds and wind gusts upward slightly. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland Levy county. High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the slow progression will continue with the trough making its way toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding through the flow. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many areas away from the coast each afternoon. Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area. Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals central and south. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Pockets of IFR/LIFR continue across the interior and around SWFL terminals this morning. This should dissipate within the next couple hours, with VFR prevailing thereafter. Gustier winds are anticipated through the day as the gradient tightens, but overall weather conditions look quiet for the next few days, with little to no aviation impacts anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure remains in control across the region, with rain-free conditions expected through the weekend. As the pressure gradient tightens, gusty winds are possible at times across coastal waters, but should generally remain below cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days. The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the 40s for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 73 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 92 72 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 66 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1225257 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 735 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Pockets of IFR/LIFR continue across the interior and around SWFL terminals this morning. This should dissipate within the next couple hours, with VFR prevailing thereafter. Gustier winds are anticipated through the day as the gradient tightens, but overall weather conditions look quiet for the next few days, with little to no aviation impacts anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland Levy county. High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the slow progression will continue with the trough making its way toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding through the flow. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many areas away from the coast each afternoon. Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area. Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals central and south. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of dense fog will be possible over the northern waters mainly along the Levy/Citrus counties coastlines through mid morning. The fog is expected to lift as winds increase from the southeast today, but the winds are expected to remain below cautionary levels. Can`t rule out an evening easterly surge around sunset which could create brief winds to cautionary levels, mainly on the near shore waters which could last for several hours before weakening after midnight. High pressure will hold over the waters into the weekend with continued southeast winds each day...again remaining below cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days. The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the 40s for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 73 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 92 72 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 66 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1225224 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland Levy county. High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the slow progression will continue with the trough making its way toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding through the flow. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many areas away from the coast each afternoon. Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area. Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals central and south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Although VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies, can`t rule out very localized brief MVFR VSBYs due to fog around sunrise which could possibly impact LAL or PGD. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds will develop at all terminals late this morning which will persist through the afternoon...subsiding around sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of dense fog will be possible over the northern waters mainly along the Levy/Citrus counties coastlines through mid morning. The fog is expected to lift as winds increase from the southeast today, but the winds are expected to remain below cautionary levels. Can`t rule out an evening easterly surge around sunset which could create brief winds to cautionary levels, mainly on the near shore waters which could last for several hours before weakening after midnight. High pressure will hold over the waters into the weekend with continued southeast winds each day...again remaining below cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days. The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the 40s for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 73 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 92 72 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 66 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
