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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1181065 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Weakening boundary across the area has pretty much washed out with west to northwest flow across all but the northern Nature Coast where flow is northeasterly. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm remains possible over the southern interior into this evening where moisture is higher, otherwise a couple of sprinkles will be possible across the Nature Coast as the northeast flow gradually spreads southward. These northeast winds will spread south across the entire area overnight with fair dry weather prevailing. On Tuesday, the northeast flow will continue, but light enough that we`ll see the west coast sea breeze develop and move inland. Should be enough moisture to allow for some scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm to develop during the afternoon and evening over the interior and then further west closer to the Interstate 75 corridor as the east and west coast sea breezes collide. For the remainder of the work week, high pressure will build over the area with warming temperatures and rather dry conditions anticipated. Only exception may be over the southern interior and southwest Florida where just enough moisture could combine with daytime heating and the sea breezes to allow a few afternoon and evening showers and possibly a thunderstorm each day. High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s away from the coast each day with the sea breeze keeping coastal location in the upper 80s to near 90. Overnight lows will be a little lower then they have been recently thanks to the drier air, but still close to normal for mid to late May. Over the weekend, an upper level shortwave is expected to move across the southeast U.S. suppressing the ridging and allowing some deeper moisture to spread across the entire area. However, this will also mean that the low level flow will shift to a more south to southwest direction so that the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period with west to northwest winds diminishing and shifting to northeast early tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak high pressure gradually builds over the waters during the week with east to southeast flow setting up, except shifting to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Some drier air will filter into the area during the week with highest rain chances, albeit less than 30 percent, over southern interior and southwest Florida by midweek. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with winds 15 mph or less. Higher dispersions will be possible over the next few afternoons over inland areas, otherwise no concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 72 89 74 93 / 0 30 20 10 FMY 72 94 73 95 / 10 20 30 40 GIF 69 89 71 93 / 10 30 0 10 SRQ 70 91 72 94 / 10 30 30 10 BKV 64 91 67 95 / 0 20 10 10 SPG 75 90 78 93 / 10 30 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1181028 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 What`s left of the cool front was drifting south into central Florida early this morning with some cumulus clouds along and ahead of it. Low stratus has moved southwest into the northern Nature Coast behind the boundary, but this should lift and dissipate in the next few hours. For the rest of the day west to northwest low level flow will increase across most of the region, with the exception being across the northern Nature Coast where a more north to northeast flow will persist. There could be enough moisture for a few showers this afternoon along this wind shift across the Nature Coast, and further south over the interior, otherwise mostly sunny skies are anticipated. Overall forecast looks on track with no updates needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR expected through period with increasing west to northwest winds up to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon. Winds shift to northeast during this evening and then diminish overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Although much of the area remained rain free on Sunday, limited rain chances are expected to continue today and Tuesday with lingering moisture likely to produce a few showers and storms during the afternoon and evening primarily over the interior as a weak surface boundary remains draped across the peninsula while a trough aloft extends SW across the state from the W Atlantic. Guidance continues to indicate meager rain chances for W FL today with PoPs generally 20-30 percent. With the setup continuing to favor interior convection and PWATs trending down toward the 1-1.3 inch range across most of the area today through early Tuesday, lower PoPs seem likely with best chances along the interior. As the trough aloft begins to shift east into the Atlantic on Tuesday, surface ridging along the E Seaboard will begin gradually building into the state with low-level NE winds overspreading the area and advecting Atlantic moisture across the state leading to a slight uptick in PoPs Tuesday afternoon with highest chances still focused across the interior but spreading further across W FL. By Wednesday upper ridging looks to build NE across the state from the SW Gulf while the surface ridge remains in place, leading to mainly dry conditions for the majority of the area as subsidence limits moisture depth and rain chances, mainly to 20 percent or less for southern interior and SWFL locations. Shortwaves and attendant surface low pressure systems trekking across the OH/TN Valleys over the latter half of the week will weaken the ridging aloft while the surface ridge will shift E into the Atlantic in response, causing winds to shift to SE-S locally late week into the weekend with gradually increasing moisture and an increase in rain chances over the weekend into early next week. Temps generally within a few degrees of average over the early part of the week before warming to above normal over the latter half of the week with the ridging over the area. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast today and Monday with coastal areas in the lower to mid 80s, then warming into the lower to mid 90s mid week and beyond away from the coast with immediate coastal areas in the mid to upper 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains over the waters with W-NW winds today increasing along the immediate coast during the afternoon with sea breeze enhancement. High pressure then builds along the E Seaboard and over the waters Tuesday into late week favoring NE to E winds developing over the waters, turning onshore with the sea breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late week into the weekend allowing winds to become more S-SE over the weekend into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains draped across the state with winds generally NW-N today. High pressure builds into the state Tuesday into late week favoring NE-E winds before shifting into the W Atlantic into the weekend allowing winds to shift out of the SE-S. Expect winds near the coast to turn onshore during the afternoons with the sea breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 73 91 75 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 91 72 92 73 / 20 20 30 10 GIF 91 70 90 71 / 30 10 40 0 SRQ 90 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 91 65 91 66 / 20 10 20 0 SPG 88 76 90 77 / 10 10 20 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1180996 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 329 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Although much of the area remained rain free on Sunday, limited rain chances are expected to continue today and Tuesday with lingering moisture likely to produce a few showers and storms during the afternoon and evening primarily over the interior as a weak surface boundary remains draped across the peninsula while a trough aloft extends SW across the state from the W Atlantic. Guidance continues to indicate meager rain chances for W FL today with PoPs generally 20-30 percent. With the setup continuing to favor interior convection and PWATs trending down toward the 1-1.3 inch range across most of the area today through early Tuesday, lower PoPs seem likely with best chances along the interior. As the trough aloft begins to shift east into the Atlantic on Tuesday, surface ridging along the E Seaboard will begin gradually building into the state with low-level NE winds overspreading the area and advecting Atlantic moisture across the state leading to a slight uptick in PoPs Tuesday afternoon with highest chances still focused across the interior but spreading further across W FL. By Wednesday upper ridging looks to build NE across the state from the SW Gulf while the surface ridge remains in place, leading to mainly dry conditions for the majority of the area as subsidence limits moisture depth and rain chances, mainly to 20 percent or less for southern interior and SWFL locations. Shortwaves and attendant surface low pressure systems trekking across the OH/TN Valleys over the latter half of the week will weaken the ridging aloft while the surface ridge will shift E into the Atlantic in response, causing winds to shift to SE-S locally late week into the weekend with gradually increasing moisture and an increase in rain chances over the weekend into early next week. Temps generally within a few degrees of average over the early part of the week before warming to above normal over the latter half of the week with the ridging over the area. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast today and Monday with coastal areas in the lower to mid 80s, then warming into the lower to mid 90s mid week and beyond away from the coast with immediate coastal areas in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR expected through period with light winds overnight increasing out of the W-NW late morning into afternoon, highest in afternoon with higher gusts. Winds shift out of the NE and diminish during the evening. While afternoon and evening convection looks to remain east of terminals and confidence does not warrant mention this cycle, interior and SWFL terminals may require adjustments if trends favor potential impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains over the waters with W-NW winds today increasing along the immediate coast during the afternoon with sea breeze enhancement. High pressure then builds along the E Seaboard and over the waters Tuesday into late week favoring NE to E winds developing over the waters, turning onshore with the sea breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late week into the weekend allowing winds to become more S-SE over the weekend into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains draped across the state with winds generally NW-N today. High pressure builds into the state Tuesday into late week favoring NE-E winds before shifting into the W Atlantic into the weekend allowing winds to shift out of the SE-S. Expect winds near the coast to turn onshore during the afternoons with the sea breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 73 91 75 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 91 72 92 73 / 20 20 30 10 GIF 91 70 90 71 / 30 10 40 0 SRQ 90 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 91 65 91 66 / 20 10 20 0 SPG 88 76 90 77 / 10 10 20 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1180963 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 843 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Another afternoon of very limited convection in our area. The lack of moisture was the main culprit and this evening`s sounding confirmed it. The dry air mostly aloft today, is forecast to spread down to the surface through the week with critically low humidities. Though there is a non-zero chance of a shower of two to develop across southern portions of our CWA, most of should remain dry. In addition, breezy west to northwesterly winds are anticipated by Monday afternoon. Overnight lows range from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south, while highs get to around 90 degrees. Otherwise, no changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period across terminals. South to southwesterly winds are expected to become gusty and shift from the northwest into the afternoon on Monday. Lingering front over southern portions of the state could bring isolated storms in the afternoon mainly to FMY/RSW, but the rest of the TAF site should remain dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 88 72 90 / 10 10 10 20 FMY 76 91 72 92 / 30 30 10 30 GIF 72 90 70 90 / 20 30 10 40 SRQ 75 89 71 91 / 20 10 10 20 BKV 68 89 65 91 / 10 20 0 30 SPG 78 88 76 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
