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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1252612 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 220 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog, which will be locally dense, through the early morning hours mainly along the coastal counties from Charlotte county and northward. - Patchy dense late night and early morning fog tonight through Wednesday night. - Much cooler and drier conditions late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 218 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Issued a dense fog advisory for portions of west central Florida until 9 AM. The advisory area may need to be expanded before sunrise. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 An area of low clouds and fog, which is locally dense, extends over the coastal counties and adjacent coastal waters from Sarasota north. The fog/low clouds may sink further south down the coast to around Charlotte county by sunrise. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the coastal waters north of Englewood including Tampa Bay through 7 AM. A land based dense fog advisory may be needed in the next several hours should the pockets of dense fog become more widespread. The fog will lift a few hours after sunrise Monday morning. But it may impact rush hour traffic early this morning. Otherwise, high pressure will hold over the region today. Once the fog lifts, skies will become partly sunny as some high cirrus will begin to spread over the region by this afternoon. Warm dry conditions will persist. Areas of fog will develop again tonight and may be locally dense, with the best chance for dense fog across the nature coast. The fog will lift by mid morning with partly cloudy skies and continued warm temperatures on Tuesday. Similar pattern for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Big changes coming for most of the forecast area mid/late week as a strong cold front will move across the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Deep layer moisture will be limited, and dry conditions will prevail...but can`t rule out a stray light shower. Much cooler drier air will advect across the forecast area in the wake of the front as Canadian high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will drop several degrees below climatic normals late in the week...and model guidance may be a few/several degrees to warm with overnight low temperatures Thursday night and Friday night, especially across the nature coast. The area of high pressure will move to the mid Atlantic coast over the weekend which will cause boundary layer winds across the Florida peninsula to veer to the east. Winds off the Atlantic will cause the airmass over the forecast area to modify with dew points/temperatures rebounding. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 218 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Low ceilings and locally dense fog are impacting SRQ/TPA/PIE/LAL with LIFR CIGs and IFR/MVFR VSBYs. There are also pockets of LIFR VSBYs, mainly along the immediate coast. The fog/low clouds will likely spread south to PGD later tonight. The fog/ceilings will lift by mid morning with skies becoming FEW- SCT040 and SCT LCL BKN250 this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Areas of dense fog through early this morning north of Englewood. Otherwise, high pressure will hold over the waters through mid week. Patchy fog will again be possible tonight and Tuesday night, mainly near the coast. Winds and seas will remain light. A strong cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds will increase to cautionary levels in the wake of the front for late in the week...with SCA possible on portions of the waters. Winds will remain a bit elevated through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Light winds will lead to poor dispersion across portions of west central and southwest Florida today. A strong cold front will push across the region mid week, which may lead to increased fire danger late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 67 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 85 66 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 85 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 84 65 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 82 67 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters. && $$ |
| #1252603 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 24.Nov.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1248 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog, which will be locally dense, through the early morning hours mainly along the coastal counties from Charlotte county and northward. - Patchy dense late night and early morning fog tonight through Wednesday night. - Much cooler and drier conditions late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 An area of low clouds and fog, which is locally dense, extends over the coastal counties and adjacent coastal waters from Sarasota north. The fog/low clouds may sink further south down the coast to around Charlotte county by sunrise. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the coastal waters north of Englewood including Tampa Bay through 7 AM. A land based dense fog advisory may be needed in the next several hours should the pockets of dense fog become more widespread. The fog will lift a few hours after sunrise Monday morning. But it may impact rush hour traffic early this morning. Otherwise, high pressure will hold over the region today. Once the fog lifts, skies will become partly sunny as some high cirrus will begin to spread over the region by this afternoon. Warm dry conditions will persist. Areas of fog will develop again tonight and may be locally dense, with the best chance for dense fog across the nature coast. The fog will lift by mid morning with partly cloudy skies and continued warm temperatures on Tuesday. Similar pattern for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Big changes coming for most of the forecast area mid/late week as a strong cold front will move across the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Deep layer moisture will be limited, and dry conditions will prevail...but can`t rule out a stray light shower. Much cooler drier air will advect across the forecast area in the wake of the front as Canadian high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will drop several degrees below climatic normals late in the week...and model guidance may be a few/several degrees to warm with overnight low temperatures Thursday night and Friday night, especially across the nature coast. The area of high pressure will move to the mid Atlantic coast over the weekend which will cause boundary layer winds across the Florida peninsula to veer to the east. Winds off the Atlantic will cause the airmass over the forecast area to modify with dew points/temperatures rebounding. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Low ceilings and locally dense fog are impacting SRQ/TPA/PIE with LIFR CIGs and IFR/MVFR VSBYs. There are also pockets of LIFR VSBYs, mainly along the immediate coast. The fog/low clouds will likely spread south to PGD and inland to LAL later tonight. The fog/ceilings will lift by mid morning with skies becoming FEW- SCT040 and SCT LCL BKN250 this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Areas of dense fog through early this morning north of Englewood. Otherwise, high pressure will hold over the waters through mid week. Patchy fog will again be possible tonight and Tuesday night, mainly near the coast. Winds and seas will remain light. A strong cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds will increase to cautionary levels in the wake of the front for late in the week...with SCA possible on portions of the waters. Winds will remain a bit elevated through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1208 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Light winds will lead to poor dispersion across portions of west central and southwest Florida today. A strong cold front will push across the region mid week, which may lead to increased fire danger late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 67 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 85 66 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 85 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 84 65 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 82 67 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters. && $$ |
