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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1260578 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 114 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler temperatures return later today and tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for tonight and a Freeze Watch is in effect for Monday night/Tuesday morning. - High fire danger for the Nature Coast this afternoon and for the entire forecast area Monday afternoon. - Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday night into Tuesday along with a high risk for rip currents. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 cooler and drier air has started to filter into the northern part of the forecast area this afternoon behind a frontal boundary located over central Florida. We still have a broken line of showers headed toward southwest Florida, but these will soon be out of our forecast area. The next few days will feature a couple of colder mornings, with a few hazards in place. There is a Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight into Monday morning for portions of the area as breezy winds will lead to lower wind chills, followed by a Freeze Watch for Tuesday morning as that still looks like the coldest morning of the week. Some inland locations will likely see a hard freeze while freezing temperatures will be seen for most of the forecast area outside of the coast. Most if not all of that area will likely be upgraded to a warning later tonight. The rest of the week will feature a rather quick warm-up as surface high pressure shifts eastward. Temperatures will be closer to normal Wednesday afternoon after a cool start to the morning, then Thursday through the weekend we`ll see highs in the upper 70s to lower or even mid 80s once again. Another weather system comes through late Friday into Saturday, bringing our next chance for rain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Some MVFR cigs linger across the terminals as a frontal boundary moves over the region. VFR is expected to return later this afternoon or evening, and is then expected for the rest of the forecast period, with the only concern being gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A cold front is moving through the region today, with winds turning northwest and increasing to advisory levels along with some gusts to gale force. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all zones through Monday night before conditions improve Tuesday through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Much drier air has started to move into the region behind a frontal boundary, and with gusty winds also in place, the Red Flag Warning continues for several Nature Coast counties this afternoon. For tomorrow afternoon, the drier air will be over the entire area and gusty winds will remain, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. Low relative humidity values continue into mid-week, but winds diminish, so there are no other Red Flag concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 44 55 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 43 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 40 57 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 46 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 33 55 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 50 57 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Levy- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy- Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Polk-Sumter. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1260559 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 643 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High fire danger for the Nature Coast Sunday afternoon and for the entire forecast area Monday afternoon. - There is a low to medium chance for late night and early morning fog formation tonight, along with sea fog over the coastal waters. - Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return on Sunday and will persist into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Some patchy fog and low clouds will continue to affect mainly KLAL and KPGD ahead of a frontal boundary this morning. A line of showers will then move through over the next several hours, with additional MVFR cigs expected. VFR will return later this afternoon behind the front and winds will also increase and become gusty for all sites through the end of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A line of showers is starting to push through the Nature Coast early this morning. This line of showers is ahead of a very strong cold front that will push through the state this morning and afternoon. We will see some scattered showers as the front pushes through however totals will generally stay below half an inch meaning it will sadly not help our current drought conditions. This front will bring much colder air back into the forecast. High temperatures today will be around noon before they start to drop through the afternoon and evening. Winds will also be picking up with gust up to 25 mph through the day. By Monday morning we will be waking up from the mid 30`s to low 40`s. Once we factor in the winds that will be around 10 to 15 mph. We can expect feel like temperatures from the upper 20`s to mid 30`s. Don`t expect much of a warm up Monday afternoon as highs will stay in the 50`s. Our coldest morning will be on Tuesday as we could see freezing temperatures as far south as inland Charlotte county. We will see one more morning in the 30`s on Wednesday before high pressure pushes off into the Atlantic that will result in a warming trend. By Thursday afternoon we will see highs back in the 80`s with mid 80`s back by next Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will push through this morning shifting winds to the northwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots by the afternoon. This gusty winds will continue through the day on Monday before slowly starting to drop Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon winds will be down to 10 to 15 knots. Winds will shift southerly for Wednesday and Thursday with speeds from 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will push through during the morning and afternoon today. We will see some scattered showers associated with it however totals will not be high enough to help with the current drought. Our bigger concern over the next two days will be the drier air with breezy conditions. A red flag warning is in effect this afternoon along the Nature Coast as RHs drop below critical levels with wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph. We will see a more widespread Red Flag risk on Monday as most of the area will see RHs below critical level with the winds staying high. Critical RHs will remain in place for Tuesday through Thursday however winds will calm down. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 44 55 37 / 60 0 0 0 FMY 79 43 62 36 / 60 0 0 0 GIF 77 39 57 33 / 60 0 0 0 SRQ 75 46 57 38 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 74 34 55 27 / 60 0 0 0 SPG 74 49 57 43 / 60 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy-Sumter. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Tuesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1260541 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 22.Feb.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 219 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - High fire danger for the Nature Coast Sunday afternoon and for the entire forecast area Monday afternoon. - There is a low to medium chance for late night and early morning fog formation tonight, along with sea fog over the coastal waters. - Hazardous marine conditions and much cooler temperatures return on Sunday and will persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A line of showers is starting to push through the Nature Coast early this morning. This line of showers is ahead of a very strong cold front that will push through the state this morning and afternoon. We will see some scattered showers as the front pushes through however totals will generally stay below half an inch meaning it will sadly not help our current drought conditions. This front will bring much colder air back into the forecast. High temperatures today will be around noon before they start to drop through the afternoon and evening. Winds will also be picking up with gust up to 25 mph through the day. By Monday morning we will be waking up from the mid 30`s to low 40`s. Once we factor in the winds that will be around 10 to 15 mph. We can expect feel like temperatures from the upper 20`s to mid 30`s. Don`t expect much of a warm up Monday afternoon as highs will stay in the 50`s. Our coldest morning will be on Tuesday as we could see freezing temperatures as far south as inland Charlotte county. We will see one more morning in the 30`s on Wednesday before high pressure pushes off into the Atlantic that will result in a warming trend. By Thursday afternoon we will see highs back in the 80`s with mid 80`s back by next Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A cold front will bring scattered showers to our northern sites this morning before shifting to the south in the afternoon. We will also see some MVFR and IFR CIGS associated with the front as it pushes through. Winds will shift to the northwest before the front with gusts up to 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will push through this morning shifting winds to the northwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30 knots by the afternoon. This gusty winds will continue through the day on Monday before slowly starting to drop Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon winds will be down to 10 to 15 knots. Winds will shift southerly for Wednesday and Thursday with speeds from 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will push through during the morning and afternoon today. We will see some scattered showers associated with it however totals will not be high enough to help with the current drought. Our bigger concern over the next two days will be the drier air with breezy conditions. A red flag warning is in effect this afternoon along the Nature Coast as RHs drop below critical levels with wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph. We will see a more widespread Red Flag risk on Monday as most of the area will see RHs below critical level with the winds staying high. Critical RHs will remain in place for Tuesday through Thursday however winds will calm down. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 44 55 37 / 60 0 0 0 FMY 79 43 62 36 / 60 0 0 0 GIF 77 39 57 33 / 60 0 0 0 SRQ 75 46 57 38 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 74 34 55 27 / 60 0 0 0 SPG 74 49 57 43 / 60 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy-Sumter. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Tuesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee- Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
