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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35510 - Tue May 17 2005 11:21 AM

please keep this page free from chatter and stick to predictions! thanks...use the pm feature if you want to chat or find a more appropriate forum. i don't want ed to have to move your posts! thanks!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #35511 - Tue May 17 2005 11:24 AM

im very sorry phil i will definetly leave this forum alone...lol...thanks for the heads up

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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #35515 - Tue May 17 2005 12:17 PM

10-4........Weatherchef

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35531 - Tue May 17 2005 02:46 PM

last change (update)
My 2005 Numbers are 17/8/5....first hurricane....may 22nd (before season) (durning season)..... july 23rd
first named storm for atl..... may 20th, 2005

Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 17 2005 05:10 PM)


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #35537 - Tue May 17 2005 03:04 PM

15/8/5

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35563 - Tue May 17 2005 05:10 PM

It's not quite pulling numbers out of a hat, but it's close here are my thoughts:
I think the current trend of relatively above average SST's will continue for the summer months. Enhancing any storms that make it to hurricane status.. With neutral conditions otherwise, I think we're going to see the following breakdown:
18 Depressions
14 Tropical Storms and 2 Subtropical Storms (16 total)
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes

Ok now why these numbers?
let's look at the last few years:
Cat 04 03 02 01 00
TS 15 16 13 15 15
HC 09 07 04 09 08

So I'm fully expecting about the same TS/ST development. I'm also expecting anything that gets going will have a generally neutral development but with warm SST's will still be able to ramp up to a minimal hurricane (ergo, the high number of hurricanes projected). I also expect the hurricanes to have enough warm ocean water to reach major hurricane status about half the time. So, it'll be busy, I really expect to see one Subtropical storm at the start of the season and one at the end of the season. That's also symptomatic of both warmer SST's in colder weather, leading to hybrid/transitional systems, as well as better understanding and diagnosis of when a storm is a Subtropical system. My gut is also telling me that 6 Major hurricanes seems high, but Last year there was 5, and it seems viable to have one more.

Take care and I'll be wishcasting for all fishspinners and a lot of fireworks but no damage.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Bloodstar]
      #35567 - Tue May 17 2005 05:23 PM

Here's mine

15/10/5

We will probably see our first named storm mid June

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


Edited by trinibaje (Tue May 17 2005 05:24 PM)


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sthorne
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35619 - Tue May 17 2005 09:30 PM

I will say 15/ 8/ 4. It's warm and getting warmer. First named storm will be around June 11th, because that's when I leave from Florida for Vermont and after the Treasure Coast getting slapped by two last year, why not have some weather to worry about while on vacation?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: sthorne]
      #35691 - Wed May 18 2005 02:07 PM

This was originally posted by RABBIT...i had tried to move it to this forum, but i screwed something up...here are his predictions for 2005:

"JUNE 1S
JULY 2S/1H
AUG 4S/3S/2MH
SEP 5S/3H/2MH
OCT 3S/2H/1MH
NOV 1S

total: 16/9/5

i will not alter the monthly forecasts at all after now but the overall numbers will be subject to change, since they are going by month
(ex.--i expect 9 storms after 8-31, totaling 16; if we have 3 in July and 6 in August, the total forecast for the season will be 18)

that said, i will also raise the expected number to 17 if Adrian does indeed become Arlene"

again...this post belongs to Rabbit.

Rabbit...i apologize for screwing up your post placement...i'm still trying to get used to moving posts to their appropriate place...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #35717 - Wed May 18 2005 05:17 PM

what the hey...

15 / 7 / 5

--------------------
cheers


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Lysis]
      #35720 - Wed May 18 2005 05:35 PM

ok well since im new to this...im gonna give it a shot....im gonna go for(i think)...(key word=think) 17 storms......5 hurricanes...and maybe 4 major hurricanes...but what do i know?...lucky guess i guess....so here it is

17/5/4 Becky

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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vbhoutex
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: Houston, TX, USA
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Keith234]
      #35885 - Fri May 27 2005 04:39 PM

With the new information I have seen of late, I must raise my numbers to 14/9/5. I initially thought we would have a more "normal" season, with 13/7/4. It has become very apparent that there is almost no chance of any EL Nino beginning soon enough to slow this season and with SST's continuing to rise and already being above normal it appears we could be in for a record year in some aspects.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35905 - Sun May 29 2005 06:26 PM

Just a reminder that you only have a couple of days left if you wish to join in on this exercise. If you have posted your seasonal forecast elsewhere, please repeat it on this thread before June 1st. Looks like another busy season, but I'll leave my numbers as is.
Cheers,
ED


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35908 - Sun May 29 2005 07:26 PM

As is... 12/7/4... 1st storm... June 20 ish

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon May 30 2005 07:28 PM)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35910 - Sun May 29 2005 08:01 PM

Let's see... 14/7/4... first storm, July 8th.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Terra]
      #35922 - Mon May 30 2005 09:49 AM

15/9/5

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35926 - Mon May 30 2005 01:29 PM

I`ve been watching some convection moving into the western gulf today. Its part of the same weather system that moved through Charleston this morning I believe. Is it possible that anything tropical might evolve from those storms in the near future ?...Weatherchef

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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35938 - Mon May 30 2005 07:25 PM

15/8/4

First hurricane...July 14 (just a guess, but I do think it'll be sometime in July)

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast [Re: Rob_M]
      #38779 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:07 AM

July 6th... booyeah.
HF 0507z07july


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
First Hurricane of the Season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #39219 - Thu Jul 07 2005 06:20 PM

Well...he comes out of the woodwork to claim victory - as he should. Nice job! Kudos also to Terra (July 8th) - pretty close.
ED


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