Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast

Very little change from my Initial Outlook posted on January15th. Easterly waves exiting the west coast of Africa have started a little sooner this year and the cooler SSTs along the southeast coast (and a few areas of the Gulf) suggest that the mid Atlantic ridge will be at least as strong as it was last season. Both of these factors would imply an active Cape Verde season. No significant overall pattern change from the 2004 season. Primary threat areas remain unchanged and include the entire Texas/Louisiana coast, south Florida, and the eastern Carolina coasts...and the eastern Caribbean islands. No change in my analog years, and only a minor adjustment to 12/7/3 in my seasonal forecast.

Now its your turn to provide or adjust your seasonal forecast. If you've already made your forecast on the Main Page, please repeat your numbers on this thread - it makes my job of end-of-season analysis a little easier if all of the forecasts are in the same place.

Here are the groundrules:
1. Only forecasts from registered Users will be tallied.
2. You must make your forecast before June 1st - any adjustments made after May 31st will be ignored.
3. You can provide rationale for your forecast if you wish, but it is not a requirement to do so.
4. Use a 'reply' to this post to make your forecast.

There is also another 'educated guess' activity that we have fun with. Normally we attempt to predict the date of the first 'named' storm, but this year I'm going to change it a little and ask you to guess at the date of the first named 'hurricane' of the season in the Atlantic basin (includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea). The same rules apply as stated above. I've already got a date in mind (got very lucky with this last year - and don't expect to do as well this year), but I'm going to hold off on posting my date for awhile.

Finally, there is an Area of Interest in the SW Caribbean Sea north of Panama. Nocturnal convection has again flared up in this area. Low-level convergence coupled with divergence aloft is centered near 12N 81W at 12Z today - with little movement. SSTs are at 28.5C with light westerly shear that rapidly strengthens to the north of the strong convection. I do not anticipate any significant development of this system.

Good Luck with your forecasts!
Cheers,
ED

Added on 05/23: First hurricane on 07/18 (very low confidence in the date this year).

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon May 23 2005 06:07 AM)

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