57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
OK no BERTHA yet, but tell me why? The only inhibiting factors that I can see would be a marginal SST, or perhaps there is a merger in the near future.
T. Leap 
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
MAR
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
Loc: Cape Coral Florida
|
|
Hello All, Its been awhile since I posted but things are getting more productive in the atlantic so I figured I'd join in. The wave around 35 west seems to be weak but holding on but I do not believe this will turn into anything as it should move into South America. There is another wave just comming off Africa that looks impressive but waters are a bit too cool yet even though upper air seems to be marginal for development. I do see this wave to be a bit more north than the others so far so I am a bit more interested in this system in the long run. Until this area gets to 50 west in 5-6 days I do not see much chance for developement but it will be on my watch list. I do believe we could see a very late July storm yet but will have to wait and see. 
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
both waves are showing signs of life, but no big change since last night. 97L looks a little better convective wise, and the trailer has less convection but an apparent swirl (it's a little higher in latitude, not babying its way through the . they dont look any closer together, must have been imagining closure before. 'nother thing, pretty good wave about to come of, over land convection is kickin it. give it a few hours over water to cool off, then we can see what it has under the hood.
rad, i'm going to bet against you. laughing rights on august 1st.
HF aikenSC 0437z23july
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
May be a tropical storm forming off the c.v
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
Sorry for a poll but do you think that ball of thunderstorms in outflow down at 12 north 98 west and the eastern pacific should be a t.d right now ! ! !
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
I just want to now. They said there was one on april 13 1991 so can it do it again some day. Whats the chances for one this winter because if there going to be one it going to heppen at summer in the southern parts of the atlantic. One more thing it the atlantic if one should form this winter will it be watch here.
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
No offense MAtthew but your posts really and truly make no sense to me. It's getting to the point where I'm not coming to this board as much anymore.
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
In the c.v stans for the islands off of afica.
Then the ball of thunderstorms in the eastern pacific looks like a nice tropical storm to me.
Than 97L looks like some thunderstorms are there, but the low is too weak
Is that better I will make my post like that for now on.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
And now back to the tropics.....97L is beginning a nice twist. lowered pressure to 1009 mb, and winds 25 knots. ridge leaning on it now. See if we could have a TD coming soon with convection beginning to pull into it. Wave off Africa has its low pressure just emerging off the coast behind the main convection. Matthew, use spell check please. I could almost believe you're trying to make sport of us.....insulting. 'nuff said. The dictionary is probably in your house somewhere. T hat can improve your skills. Cheers!! Steve H.
|
garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
|
|
WHXX01 KWBC 231159
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972002) ON 20020723 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020723 1200 020724 0000 020724 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 40.3W 9.4N 42.7W 9.7N 45.0W
BAMM 8.8N 40.3W 9.7N 42.4W 10.2N 44.6W
A98E 8.8N 40.3W 9.0N 42.1W 9.5N 44.3W
LBAR 8.8N 40.3W 9.4N 42.4W 10.1N 44.7W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020725 0000 020725 1200 020726 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 47.3W 9.5N 50.0W 9.3N 56.8W
BAMM 10.3N 46.8W 10.1N 49.4W 9.4N 55.9W
A98E 10.3N 46.7W 11.0N 49.3W 13.0N 55.1W
LBAR 10.7N 47.3W 11.0N 50.3W 11.4N 57.3W
SHIP 37KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 37KTS 43KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 40.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
|
garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
|
|
Satellite imagery indicates a well-defined circulation has developed with the tropical low located near 10N and 35W. This circulation has been organizing throughout the day. For most of the day, there was no convective activity near the center. However, recent satellite imagery indicates that convective activity has started to form right over the center. This activity is not very intense at this time. The latest QUIKSCAT is inconclusive regarding the intensity of this feature. That being said, the satellite signature indicates that the system is very weak. This is not surprising as this low is still in its organizing phase. There is some potential for further development. The sea surface temperatures and upper air conditions can support tropical cyclone development. There is no shear to speak of in this area and no shear is expected to develop. Therefore, this system is going to be monitored very closely for the potential for further development.
To the east of this tropical low, a massive tropical wave is emerging into the Atlantic Ocean. There is a large area of deep convection associated with this wave. In addition, surface observations from Senegal indicate that pressures are very low, as low as 1008mb in places. While this is not the lowest pressure ever recorded with the passage of a tropical wave in Africa, these are very low pressures. Usually, when an emerging wave has pressures this low, there is some type of development that takes place once it moves into the Atlantic. Atmospheric conditions do not appear hostile for further development. However, sea surface temperatures near the coast of Africa are below normal. Therefore, rapid development once this feature moves off of the coast is not anticipated. In fact, it would not be surprising to see most of the deep convection weaken. This will work against anything developing. Despite this, this wave will be monitored closely for any signs of development.
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
WOW!!! The wave is a GOLLY-WHOOPER that just came off Africia.I will definitely watch this one. In regards to 97L the reports that I have seen this AM was suggesting also that it just might be trying to get a little better organized. Then,the at 11AM update said that even though it is better organized at this time NOAA/NESDIS combined TC Genesis Parameter suggests that the environment is not favorible for development. In addition said that none of the Global models suggest development.So with all this information at our finger tips, where does this leave us. I guess we will just have to wait and see.......... T. Leap
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
|
|
while not having anything to base this on, i feel we will get a storm in the gulf before the atlantic. just call it a hunch. arthur hung around in the gulf for a week before it moved through and once off the coast it formed into a storm. if nothing has happened by august then i would start leaning toward the atlantic for the next one to form. but we still have a good week left in july.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Thanks for the post garyb as usual....as reliable as a rooster in the morning. If the thinks that 97L (in their ) isn't going to develop they need their heads examined. Do these guys work in the same office? This system is firing up and the circulation is develo[ping an outflow and banding thunderstorms. Will become TD #2 IMO before 11pm. Cheers!!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Caneman nothing say's your forced to read it.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I am unable to access the JB video, thought it was still available until Sept; I get an error message that says the file is on a computer that requires special permission to access.
Is anyone else having this problem?
Note: sorry, not impressed by 97L, see subsidence and shear ahead. More interested in the system just coming off Africa.
IHS,
Bill
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
I was able to view JB's video today.I did have a problem with it the first time I tried to access the site. JS reported that the environment is less hostile but still thinks that our waves does not have much of a chance to develope.In other news the AVN does try to develope the newest wave comming off of Africa.
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
GOMF
Unregistered
|
|
Hi All...my first post this season.
This is an extract of the Extended Outlook paragraph of an earlier Marine Weather Discussion:
BIG QUESTION IS VERY CONVECTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OFF AFRICAN COAST ATTM. WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E
PORTION OF ATLC AREA FRI. AVN HAS A CYCLONE FORMING FRI. I
INTEND TO INDICATE LOW PRES...WITH ELY 20-25 KT WINDS...ALONG
WAVE AXIS BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PHRASE ON TEXT AND GRAPHICS NEXT FULL
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
|
garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
|
|
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 23
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 8.9 40.2 270./ 8.0
6 9.7 40.5 339./ 8.5
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
|
garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
|
|
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972002) ON 20020723 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020723 1800 020724 0600 020724 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.0N 41.0W 9.5N 43.5W 9.8N 46.0W
BAMM 9.0N 41.0W 9.6N 43.0W 10.0N 45.2W
A98E 9.0N 41.0W 9.3N 42.6W 9.7N 44.7W
LBAR 9.0N 41.0W 9.5N 43.0W 10.2N 45.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020725 0600 020725 1800 020726 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.9N 48.6W 9.7N 51.5W 9.3N 58.6W
BAMM 10.1N 47.3W 10.1N 49.8W 9.7N 55.4W
A98E 10.1N 47.0W 10.3N 49.8W 11.8N 55.6W
LBAR 10.7N 48.4W 11.0N 51.5W 11.3N 58.6W
SHIP 38KTS 45KTS 57KTS
DSHP 38KTS 45KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 41.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 39.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 8.9N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
