Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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low near the mississippi mouth should be classified later on. it has some chance of being a tropical storm.. very close to the coast. if you dont believe in storms intensifying as they move inland.. look at beryl from 1988. formed over lake ponchatrain.
low off the sc coast is stationary. most of the globals last night had it drifting up to near cape fear.. dont know what more recent ones are doing. really just have glanced at the some satelite pics.. going to check models and SFC obs.
HF 1648z04august
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT SUN AUG 4 2002
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS...ONE OFF CHS AND ONE OFF MSY/MOB. THE GULF LOW SHOWS SOME ASPECTS OF A TROPICAL SIGNATURE...BUT SURFACE DATA ARE STILL BELOW TROPICAL-DEPRESSION LEVELS.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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AnonymousCarl
Unregistered
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Yet another example of the believing computer models instead of their own eyes.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The TLH discussion describes the situation pretty damn well. It says the low shows TC characteristics on radar and satellite imagery but surface obs show it is blw TD status. That should change soon. Still I'm only thinking that this will be a TD or a weak TS (30-35 knots at best). Could dump HUGE rainfall amounts though. Allison of 2001 proved rain can be worse than wind. We do have a potential windstorm off of the SC coast however.... 
Yes, above I was referring to 99L. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that there is a very broad area of low pressure off of SC...and the convection to the east is also trying to wrap around it's north side. The low is on land now but if a slow southward drift is beginning this could all change. Call me an idiot, but if the upper-trough continues to lose it's influence on these two lows we may just see a tropical storm 75-175 miles off of the Fla. EC by mid to late week. Time will tell if this in the cards.
I think the bottom line here is with all of the possible activity we've seen near the U.S. this year...it is a sign of increased U.S. activity for this season (especially EC, we've had two systems try to spin up near there this year, one in may). The seems to be coming to life but needs to rise northward if anything is to spin up there.
Edited by Kevin (Sun Aug 04 2002 07:38 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
What was 98L is now 02L.noname
Kevin 
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I know it's a dumb question, but WHY is still saying "no tropical development" as I type ?? Sure looks like one to me !!
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Need I say more? TD2 is official and it's also scary to think that weather buffs like us already know this is going on and is totally clueless. Who updates their info? I'm pretty sure it's the infamous LISA MOSIER (lol)   .
Check out the satellite pick below from Accuweather. It shows 99L. It isn't quite developed yet, but this one's gonna blow up soon too!
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hurricane/satellite.asp?ocean=atlantic&thisreg=atln&type=&sattype=ir
The tropics have awaken it appears. Close to home, too.
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houstontracker
Unregistered
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See note on the ammended POD.
NOUS42 KNHC 041800 AMEND
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI,FL.
0200 PM EDT SUN 04 AUG 2002
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z AUG TO 06/1100Z AUG 2002
TCPOD NUMBER.....02-074 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA IN GULF OF MEXICO
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST - CHANGED
C. 05/1700Z
D. 28.0N 89.0W
E. 05/1700 TO 06/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 06/1200Z
IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
ADDED 3. NOTE: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST WAS ADDED AT 04/1730Z
FOR 04/2100Z MISSON ID- 01BBA INVEST.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
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Houstontracker
Unregistered
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmob.shtml
Circulation center shows up pretty well around 29.0 and 88.8 or about 50 miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi and appears to be moving west slowly (hard to be sure because the radar loop is only about an hour.
New Orleans radar shows this also.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml
If it is indeed moving west it might have a chance to develop a little more. We will see I guess. nice to have something to watch.
Hey Frank P and Steve where are ya. How about some local reports.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I guess the knows best but it sure looks like it has taken more of a westerly turn to me from the sat. pics I've been looking at. I also have been watching the radar loop out of New Orleans as you have houstontracker and see the same thing you do.Does anyone else have any thoughts on all of this?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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NEW ORLEANS LA 27 X 1 X 28
Even though it's nothing, I always get excited when we hit the Proability Table. Ain't much to talk about on this end. We've got winds 15-20 gusting to about 25 in the area. There have been low clouds all day alternating wtih sunshine. We're on the decidedly dry side of TD #2. They are expecting heavy rain here between tonight and tomorrow. NWS is giving a 2-4" range. We've had several quasi-bands come through, but so far there hasn't been any rainfall - just the bands of clouds with the wind gusts. It's a super nice day. I'm going to work tomorrow, but it's time to run out and grab some brewskis for the evening!
WOO HOO!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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In Metairie, by the lake, at about 2:00 we had some very squally weather, heavy rain, lasted about 20 minutes.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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t.d. 2, nice. has probably 12-24hrs to remain over water. dont see why it cant get up to t.s. later in the week it should drift westward through louisiana to texas. probably going to be around for a few days.
99L is a bigger question. low not very organized.. deep convection mostly elsewhere. might get some baroclinic influence in a couple of days. dependent on how strong it is it will either be depressed south... or if it develops in the next couple of days it will probably be taken offshore. very weak systems are hard to predict.
area near bermuda still needs to be watched as well. though still not showing much of anything.
HF 2044z04august
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