Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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I agree Kevin that for this system to develop it has to pass those phases that you mentioned.
About the waves in the atlantic wave #1 at the mid atlantic still has a decent circulation pattern to it and some convection is trying to get closer to the low but still not deep convection to say that it will develop anytime soon but as it gets more west then it may have a chance as more warm waters are west of 50w.
About wave #2 south of the cape verde islands still to early to say if this one has a low center because quikScat is inconclusive because it is contaminated but as it moves more west the data will be much better but it has some deep convection although it has losed some but for this wave we have to wait for it to go more west but looks good.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I see a cloud in the atlantic,, I think it will be a cat 5 in 24 hours
and hit my backyard. Oh and Im also a met on hurricanes and
my name is dr steve lyons, let me give you his website to prove it,,uhh i mean mine.
J/k people
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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to drop. Hey anon, knock off the kidding, you're killing my self-steem; or is it my character?  Think the 3 areas should be watched. I actually think 2 of them will develop; which two i don't know. That's my perfetional opinonion. Now i'll click my heels 3 times and repeat.....Cheers!! Steve H.
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(Anonymous) HF
Unregistered
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er.. guess the convection isnt refiring. well, no bother. it has plenty of convection to work with inland over north carolina. or maybe formative tropical lows have a survival period between host thunderstorm complexes, not unlike demons and their hosts in the movie fallen. i wouldnt know, but 92L needs one or the other if it is going to be a viable entity by daylight tomorrow.
both of the waves in SW atlantic are actually maintaining some convection. now if theyd just leave the .. move out of their parents house and grow up.. maybe we can start betting theyll develop.
my central atlantic fish spinner still has a chance.. and the devil rays will get the AL east pennant. oh wait.. those jackasses are going to strike. nobody wins the pennant. so much for national pasttime.
HF 0347z20august
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Whats that in the SE Bahamas
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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But with no surface low at this time but for now a broad low pressure area embedded with it.
Bruce that in the Bahamas is part of the trough so nothing from there.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Lots of potential out there SE US, SW CAribbean, Central Atlantic, Eastern Caribbean, African coast. But right now, a whole lot of nothin' still. Watch and wait. Cheers!!
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp
If the cape verde season is going to be a normal one it has to begin forming systems from now on because the factors are there for developments as the link that I provided shows.The next 1-3 weeks will be crucial in what kind of cape verde season it will be because if no developments take place in the next 1-3 weeks then I can say that the cape verde season will be a dud one.
Now at this moment let's see what those 2 waves will do with those favorable factors that they have but I think that a change has happened as the is more north and there is more moist air in parts of the tropical atlantic.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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basin just looks different. look how much convection is out there.. from the caribbean on east. just get the feeling a switch has been flipped.. or is about to be. either my imagination took over or things are changing.
the invest is goofy, but still sort of there. more convection is southwest of there around florida and also around the bahamas today.
wave in the western carib is in the shear zone under the bottom low on the .. but looking more active today. maybe over on the pacific side..
99L invest in the eastpac hasnt changed much.. still plenty of models calling for it to deepen. im sort of expecting this one to lead any atlantic development.
my central atlantic fish spinner candidate lingers on.. refusing to die or live. globals are actually still seeing it.
atlantic waves.. 40W is a little off the now.. still has a fair presentation. an easterly surge knocked down its amplitude bigtime since yesterday, but it still has a decent signature around 10N. its best window for development is tomorrow through friday.
the trailer wave around 25W is very broad and not really far enough west yet to prove anything. if it still looks angry by thursday i'll pay closer attention.
cycloneye yes the next three weeks are critical to the CV season.. they ARE the CV season. well okay maybe more like the next four weeks, but it struck me as sort of.. duh. after about september 15-20th that part of the basin starts closing down from east to west.. to the islands by around mid october.
im sort of taken by the bastardi school of thought that we get development closer in this year.. so my overall response to hearing we wont get a persistent alley of storms off africa this year is so what. they mostly all recurve anyway. near the islands, western carib, SW atlantic.. more interesting.
anyhow.. be really weird if nothing forms in the next week.
nuff said, take it easy.
HF 2154z20august
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I am in total agreement with everything HF said. This is a brief post with development chances only. If one of these areas develops, I will provide my detailed analysis.
1. Wave at 40W: Chance of development:3/10, will likely increase.
2. Wave at 26W: Chance of development: 2/10. Chances will increase as this wave get further west.
3. Caribbean convection: Most convection can be contributed to the adjacent upper-low, the convection is being sheared as well. 1/10 development chance.
The MCC (off East Coast) died because it was not ventilated properly and lost most of the convection it had after dusk.
Also notice that there has been no 5:30 PM to be found anywhere. Strange...
Kevin 
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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What does everyone think about the wave south of Cuba? Looks like it may have a NW movement to it. Outflow seems to be nice.
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Anonymous
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WE WILL SEE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Not that either of these guys will probably develop, but that's 2 straight days of rather large convective complexes born in Columbia. Note all the "Gold" 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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im not sure.. but think i'm seeing some kind of vortmax on the wave around 42w... at about 11N. convection firing around it too.. has me interested now. 2-3 days and that is in the islands... maybe as something.
W caribbean convection is still holding.. some kind of diffluent upper air flow i guess. dont think it's generating any surface feature, but lively convection is interesting to see.
low east of bermuda still milling around.. doing nothing of interest.
other near the cape verdes still hasnt fully come on to goes 8 coverage.. so just old meteosat shots.. nothing new or fascinating.
still some mid layer vorticity off the carolinas..
tomorrow is another day. or is it today?
HF 0550z21august
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57497479
Weather Master
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Loc: W. Central Florida
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The convection in the caribbean has been hanging around for a while now, even though it may be associated with a diffluent upper air flow I think this area needs to be watched with a least 1 eye. When I see convection in this part of the woods flair up, Floridians as well as anyone else in the gulf should have a heads up on the situation. Doesn't give you a lot of time to prepare,even those last minute things you have to do. Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Things should start heating up really soon. Interesting little feature approaching NW Caribbean. Steve, this might be something to watch as it approaches the GOM... if it persists...
Another point, two massive thunderstorm complexes getting reading to come off the Africian coast... Now I know nothing has survived yet in the CV area, but I just have a "feeling" that at least one of these system will develop... climatologically ITS TIME...
Been off the board a while for a plethora of reasons but none deal with the fact that I was in the FWPP... Federal Witness Protection Program...
Frank P
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Already changes are noted in the tropical atlantic as the azores high is more weak than in the past few weeks and also is more north than in the past weeks and those changes are allowing for more lower pressures in parts of the atlantic and less subsidence that with those factors out of the way will make conditions favorable in the comming weeks.But this year so far no cape verde developments have taken place due to negative conditions but with the changes noted recently we may well see developments from the atlantic east of the islands more closer to them than in the far eastern atlantic but let's wait for the first shoe to drop but it is getting close.
By the way that western caribbean system has to be watched if the trough goes away more west allowing for a high to build in then conditions will be more favorable but we have to wait but looks interesting that system.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Wed Aug 21 2002 01:10 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Check out the LL circulation at 12N/32W. This one may come together. I don't think West Caribbean convection has much of a chance w/ULL to it's SW and one heading across S. Florida. But, maybe we'll see a named system before the weekend. Why is it such a struggle to get something to develop with so much potential out there? Maybe goes back to the theory I saw once when a scientist was talking about a Mega-storm and stated, "tropical cyclones are a mistake of nature". Strange theory since they are so recurring. Cheers !! Steve H.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Ok, well maybe nothing will come out of either of those two systems, but at least we have something worth watching on the satellite loops. I for one will be keeping a close eye on the Caribbean area because even though it may not develop into anything "named" it could still be one heck of a rainmaker for Florida if it comes our way. What looks so tiny on radar loops will look huge once (if) it gets closer. Besides, don't they always say keep one eye open all the time? Anytime something like this develops near the GOM or the Bay of Campeche, it could mean trouble. Whatever happens, which may be nothing, keep an eye to the south and to the east.
Frank P.....I am still laughing. Stop it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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A day with posts from Frank P and Colleen? You've got to be kidding me. Welcome back, and uh, glad to see you didn't get whacked.
Steve
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