Anonymous
Unregistered
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Give me the old days, there is just to much information out there.Bastardi says watch this or that and it might develope, Lyons can'see anything out there, the national weather service with all of the tools and money at there disposal can't see much happening. This is one very confusing season of nothing but opposing conjecture.Meanwhile living in Stuart Florida , a prone area for hurricanes where there hasn't been one of any significance in 50years, I have seen my hurricane insurance skyrocket. As far as I am concerned where I live we are protected by cutoff lows and troughs that form at the height of hurricane season. It was a better time when a small article mentioned a tropical storm was in the Bahamas and might reach Florida within a few days and then no more information just wait and see.This season will once again be a bust as Steve Weagle , weatherman in palm beach described the trough setting up now to protect Florida again this year.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 31/1600Z
D. 27.0N 92.5W
E. 31/1600Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 01/1200Z
IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Recon IS scheduled for the GOM tomorrow.
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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troy
Unregistered
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sing along with me to the tune of the Buegels 'Video Killed the Radio Star' ..."dynagel killed the hurricane star"
troy 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The latest visible imagery and loops seem to indicate that the circulation in the GOM may be tightening up. However, shower activity is limited, and there is no deep convection associated with the circulation yet. Upper level conditions are not good at present, but as it nears Texas, upper level flow becomes anti-cyclonic and may therefore have less impact on the system.
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Although Dolly has been classified as a tropical system for a while now, this is only my first forecast on her. And despite all of the hype in both directions (dead Dolly vs. livin' Dolly), I believe and the models may well be out to lunch for the time being.
Discussion
Though Dolly has weakened a bit per (50 vs. 55 knots), I believe Dolly really hasn't touched 55 knots and has been at 50 all day. Convection has decreased somewhat, but not in a mammoth proportion as others have been claiming. The convection and slight disorganization disruption may have occured when some slightly drier air was sucked into Dolly's north and northwest side eariler today. This was present on water vapor imagery. This disruption, however, appears to have paused for now. Dolly may maintain her current strength for now or strengthing may occur later tonight.
Track discussion
NHC seems to be very bullish on this system eventually turning towards the wnw, but I have doubted their track forecast for a while now. They say they are using the more "realiable" global models over the tropical models. However, it should be noted that the majority of the global models have initialized this system too far north since the beginning. So, given Dolly's low-latitude, I believe there is a strong possibility that Dolly could continue westward through 60 hours with only very small track flucuations. Beyond that, an upper-level trough is forecasted to approach the system. This could cause it to move more to the nw for a short period of time, however, it may not fully recurve the system after 72 hours. I only expect a small nw flucutation to occur in 61-72 hours. Also, if Dolly continues moving west as I forecast and remains weak, the effects of this trough would be minimal. Nonetheless, I still believe this trough will not be able to do the job of recurving Dolly. I Expect a bend back towards the wnw or possibly w after 72 hours. has not hinted as to what may happen after the nw flucuation, but I believe that this feature will not recurve Dolly. Also, the Bermuda High has had a tendency to build in very strongly and rapidly after troughs lift out this year. This should also be monitored if Dolly does not recurve since it would shunt her west and possibly provide a favorable area for rapid intensification. Thus, all interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dolly over the weekend.
Intensity forecast:
Initial: 50 knots
12 hours: 50 knots
24 hours: 55 knots
36 hours: 60 knots
48 hours: 65 knots
72 hours: 65 knots
*It is important to acknowledge that large errors can occur, and are likely, at 48-72 hour periods.*
Next forecast: 10 or 11 PM
Thoughts and comments needed, and I like I said, we may see change their tune on this eventually.
Also, the system ne of the Bahamas could develop slowly over the next few days.
Kevin 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Rich, I know that. I was pointing out that there are different areas they are investigating. One is the GOM which is scheduled for tomorrow, and the other one which I posted was scheduled for TODAY in the SW Carribbean. The dates are different. Today is the 30th, tomorrow is the 31st. But you knew that. 
While Dolly is doing whatever it is she is doing, the area near the Bahamas is looking better and better. It has even started what might be called "banding" and trying to beome a low pressure area. We need to watch this one carefully.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
Looks like Dolly may make a comeback but will it be a brief burst or will be a trend for more convection to refire near the center.And also it is moving west and not going up and that is because of the steering as it is more weak.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Just an update on Dolly...over the past hour convection has really come back on strong with Dolly, but an LLC is difficult to find due to the lack of visible satellite imagery. It appears that the convection is either north of what is a bare LLC, or the LLC is uniformly under the convection and is a half a degree or a degree further north. However, T-numbers have fallen to 1.5/2.5 and there is a possibility that Dolly is a very vigorous tropical wave with winds around 40 knots. We will know more by the morning...for now, my earlier forecast remains unchanged. However, depending on how Dolly fares overnight, adjusments will be made in my morning forecast. I'm getting the drift that timing will be everything here.
Kevin
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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1. dolly is and has been a tropical storm all along. when you see the low cloud field turning the entire way around the storm, this is obvious.
2. 11pm advisory has dolly well north of the previous path. apparently when all the convection quit this afternoon they got a look at the low level center and have it tagged at nearly 12N. personally think that is a little overdone, but dolly certainly doesnt seem to be moving due west.
3. dolly should reach the SW jet ahead of the in 2-3 days. i dont see there being enough of an all-around trough out there to recurve the system, but until it weakens enough to turn back into the low level flow i suspect it will gain a good bit of latitude. dont think it will hit the islands.
other items of interest:
sw caribbean system is in the eastpac now.. but some disturbed weather is up in the NW carib now. watching for any kind of persistence.
system east of the bahamas essentially unchanged, moving slowly wnw. upper lows nearby making its cloud pattern confused, persistent convection and low level wind field curvature not really improved. as it gets further west it should become dissociated with the upper lows and do something new.. either die or develop.
i agree with bill's take on the gulf low. it has no convection.. reminiscent of those july lows we watched for days on end that never amounted to anything. this one is moving sw, should end up in mexico as nothing in a few.
wave entering the islands is under heavy shear. have to see what it has left once it gets further west.
wave about to emerge from africa is interesting looking. maybe something if it doesnt collapse off the coast.
westpac typhoons are running west to east asia. this teleconnects to danger on our coast. ele in the centpac is moving north, though.. wonder what that means? maybe a central atlantic trough?
thats the only feasible support i can conjure for dolly to be an early recurver, though the fact that it formed so far east is a reason within itself...
HF TLH 0432z31august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Woke up early this morning and looked at Goes-8. Wave in NW Caribbean, pulsing action at 26/73, 30/60, 20/60, 10/55 - looks like a slow march. 26/73 has to be watched. This could easily be a threat to the SE Coast for heavy rain if nothing else. Anything that might happen in the Gulf won't be evident until Sunday. However, if something becomes apparent, there exists a TS landfall possibility for Tues. or Wed. I haven't looked at this morning's model runs yet to see where everything is going, but I'll get to do that when I wake back up i a few hours. 
I don't have a call on Dolly right now one way or another. Earlier, she was looking like a threat to the northern Islands, but says no on the 5am. Critical for Dolly is where her low level center is - assuming she has one, and what strength she's at in 72-96 hours. 50/50 threat or fish spinner right now. If her motion continues WNW then even more NW, the threat is probably over. Original thinking had this motion then a turn back to the west.
All in all, there's a lot of stuff to watch this Labor Day Weekend in the tropics. And speaking of Labor Day, don't forget there are insane drunks all over the roads this weekend. So party it up but make sure you don't do anything stupid behind the wheel. Watch out for the other guy too.
Steve
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Dolly seems to have gotten herself back together for now. She is no longer looking nearly as ragged as she was last night/early this morning; in fact, she is looking quite symmetrical and well formed. Figures. issues their 5:00AM Advisory, then Dolly decides to put on her make-up. The storms in the Bahamas have also refired after pretty much dying out early this morning; there is a huge complex of storms out there.
Well, one thing's for sure this Labor Day Weekend: the and our local NWS mets will be working hard.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks like we will have a busy weekend ahead. Dolly does seem to be refiring. Who knows what she is going to do. Convection also firing up closer to home just east of the Bahamas and just west of Jamaica.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I dont have really much to say.Everything that I said will happen has from 3 weeks back and even since May. Dolly
has been a easy forcast for us. I called for her to possibly become a TS then deminish and then re classified around the 2nd or just after then feel a new trough next week and out to sea more she goes. I expect her to be declassified by tonight or sunday morning. Then late monday be reclassified when the recon goes in as she moves to arund 18 and 56. Her speed should slow down a tad to 12mph more less later today thru labor day,, but all this has been mentioned by me from last weeks posts.
Also as of last week my next system i said that will form Monday more less will move eventually into mexico and should be more of a threat there, but I should say that a hurricane in the eastern pac will form a trough off the w coast there then a ridge over mexico then another mid level trough over the N gulf, this could want to stall the system in the western gulf as it awaits the digging of a trough to its N.
scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Scott....what can I say. I am going to do this: IF you are right and Dolly is de-classified and then re-classified, I will pat you on the back (so you don't have to do it constantly) forever. However, I do not think that Dolly was or is an "easy forecast" at all. For crying out loud, the is having a hard enough time with her track and intensity. Being a meteorologist yourself, you of all people should know that tropical weather is not and NEVER WILL BE an exact science. Atmospheric changes can occur at any given time (re:Andrew) and take us all by surprise.
I've been here for 4 years, and every year you take every chance you get to pat yourself on the back. It is very hard to take someone seriously when everything they say is a tribute to themselves.
John and Mike...if you think I am out of line here, kick me off, I don't care anymore. I'm just tired of it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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nrl has put up an invest on the system east of florida at 27/74. it's headed north of due west, looks like. convection today is going strong and focused, low level windfield is more distorted away from the convection today. probably a go right on our doorstep.
dolly looks smaller, since it has shrunken in areal coverage the WNW movement is obvious. some globals that recurve it are killing dolly as a system, entraining the energy in another system near bermuda, sending that west. be interesting to see if dolly can negotiate the shear that lies 24-48hr ahead.
disturbance in NW caribbean is just brewing convection at this point. W gulf low is essentially unchanged, moving west along 26N. former 93L in the caribbean is over in the eastpac looking like it wants to be hernan's sister. wave about to leave africa still looks good and bundled, probably an invest tomorrow. bastardi also mentioned a trouble area near the southern leewards, but i didnt notice it.
HF 1421z31august
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Dolly is going to dissipate by Monday at the latest for one reason we do know, and one reason we don't. The reason we do know was caused by the one that is being debated. Dolly has shrunk to a very small and tighthly wound system, making it very prone to shear and dry air in the middle of the Atlantic. Dolly may strengthen more over the next 24 hours, but more likely it will stand pat. After that, the upper-level trough will meet it and Dolly will dissipate. There is a small chance that regeneration could occur further north. Also, recent QuikSCAT imagery indicated winds no higher than 35 knots and no closed circulation, thus, Dolly may already be degenerated into a tropical wave. All intrests in the extreme northern Lesser Antilles should monitor Dolly/what's left of her until she is north of their latitude. I am lowering intensity to 40 knots...expect to do the same at 11:00 AM.
Initial: 40 knots
12 hours: 40 knots
24 hours: 35 knots
36 hours: 35 knots
48 hours: 25 knots
72 hours: dissipated
Other areas of interest:
A mid-level low is located just east of the Bahamas. A surface low may form in this area later today. Slow development may occur over the weekend. Chance of development: 3/10
An area of disturbed weather continues in the NW Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity is pulsing from time to time and is disorganized. No development is expected.
A low in the western Gulf of Mexico has no significant convection at this time, thus, development is not expected as this low moves west.
A new tropical wave has nearly emerged off of the west African Coast. Conditions appear favorable for slow development over the next few days. Chance of development: 4/10
Kevin
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It will be interesting to see what happens with the new invest. That area has been persistant for the last few days but not a lot of attention has been focused on it until now. I know they have been watching it, of course, but being that it has died down at times and then refired at others, I can see why they waited to put up an invest on it. I think that this one, being so close to home at the current time, is one to watch and watch carefully.
As for Dolly, well....who knows.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I am trying to get into the website to see if the models have done any runs on 94L. The OSU site is "not responding" at this time. If you have any better luck, let me know. If I get anything, I'll let you know. You know?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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As Dolly is winding down the attention should shift to the north of Bahamas system.A recon plane will investigate this afternoon that system to see if already TD#5 has formed.All interests in the east coast should monitor what is going on with this system.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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