Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: kenna
      #6192 - Thu Oct 24 2002 07:42 AM

I am thinkin' like I was earlier this week, that some Caribbean development is possible during the next few days, as there is a disturbance in the E. Carib, and an area also off the NW coast of Columbia. Shear is backing off but still there. pattern of EPAC activity leads me to believe we'll see some here in the Atlantic basin (Caribbean) for the next 2 weeks. The Canadian is the most emphatic I've seen so far today, and brings a TD/TS moving westward near Jamaica at 120 hours. NOGAPS still showing some development, although it's almost looking like it has two areas trying to get going, but struggling (shear/westerlies??) or working off each other. Somehow I think we'll see a named system out of this by early next week. Watching the models trends and Pix!! Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
late october
      #6194 - Thu Oct 24 2002 01:59 PM

mjo negative phase is here, so says the daily graphic. as you'd expect, a couple of suspect areas in the caribbean, though no invest as of yet. since eastpac activity started around the 21st, i'd say caribbean activity is imminent.. if the MJO movement delay is its usual few days behind in the atlantic.
kenna a category four. presentation not as good as earlier, probably eyewall contractions. going to hammer the area near cabo corrientes early saturday, and probably be up in southeast texas late sunday/early monday. if enough of a low survives, possibly have a depression or weak storm moving northeast near the texas coast. definitely a lot of rain on the way.
another noreaster type storm set to form near the bahamas next couple of days as well. probably some hybrid features.
this is probably the last gasp of the season. as steve said, maybe a storm or two to go.
HF 1755z24october


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: late october
      #6195 - Thu Oct 24 2002 05:24 PM

Kenna is amazingly impressive! I can barely think of a word for this type of event, latest recon shows pressures down to 918 millibars. I think 916 is a category 5, so another pressure drop may do the job. What is even more impressive is that this IS NOT because of El Nino. This is simply due to a tropical disturbance in the right place at the right time. A negative MJO, a tropical disturbance, and a ridge right over the disturbance can lead to something big very quickly. Mexican Coast will be war zone...if Kenna doesn't level off too much before landfall damage will be similar to what Gilbert did to the Yucatan in 1988. Horrific.

There has been a lot of fanfare concerning Caribbean development in the next 2-5 days, and I think it may be valid. There is currently some pretty strong, disorganized convection north of Panama. There is also numerous amounts of energy along 10N moving into the area. This combined with the MJO negative moving in should lead to some development in this area in 3-4 days. Also, I'll betcha anything that Kenna is teleconnecting to any storm that develops in the Caribbean will have a NE curve eventually. I'm not going any further than that.

Kevin


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
KENNA A CATEGORY 5!!!
      #6196 - Thu Oct 24 2002 05:32 PM

160 mph as of 2 PM Pacific time!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
And yet another post.
      #6197 - Thu Oct 24 2002 06:31 PM

5:30 PM TWO mentiones SW Caribbean and WI wave. Thinking that two may ultimately jump start each other.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWWOAT.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Unregistered




Re: late october
      #6198 - Thu Oct 24 2002 08:15 PM

What is MJO?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: And yet another post.
      #6199 - Thu Oct 24 2002 09:08 PM

the current forecast on the NRL site shows a swing of Kenna into S texas. What are the chances of that baby hitting the gulf? Just HYPotheticaly speculating of course.

Man, the surfers in SoCal have to loving this.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: And yet another post.
      #6200 - Thu Oct 24 2002 09:20 PM

Shawn may get his storm yet. Sneaking up from behind.
That Kenna is a beauty. Sucks such a storm while beautiful to look at will mess up so many peoples day.

One model albeit its the latest GFDL has it holding itself together in a limited capacity and finally reemerging off the NC coast in 4 days or so.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Tropical Development
      #6201 - Fri Oct 25 2002 05:46 AM

WOW! Could get interesting for the next few weeks. Things are starting to fire up again, and Kenna is a beautiful looking storm yet so very dangerous. If I lived in Mexico right now I think I would be headed out of town.
Goes to show you just when I thought the season was going to quitely fizzle out we get this sudden burst. From what I am seeing on the long range models the area from Africa to the Caribbean looks like it will stay quite disturbed for the next few weeks. At least we have something to focus on.
It will be interesting to see how much of an impact Kenna will have on the lower 48.

Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 28 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 23000

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center