This system look good a few hours ago and now there no thunder storms and there low chance that it will form and the next day or so an less thunder storms re form there only slight chance so I will keep this upgraded sorry about going out of line on 93l but I 100 percent know that that was a t.d and the hurricane center said it was a short lived t.d and I would of made it what it was.
[list]
wonder what the focal mechanism will be down in the gulf, if something does form. for some reason i have little faith in that trough south of louisiana.. think it will come together a bit off from there. models arent going nuts and all jumping on it, so mediocre confidence. there are days for this to happen anyway.
ive looked at the eastpac cooling.. it's pretty drastic pulse of cold. sort of thing that could wreck el nino on the east side of the equatorial pacific, if it keeps up for long.
odd random interest:
look at the eastpac systems from 1975 on the unisys page. see something odd? i found a document online describing that system, so it isnt a joke (i wasnt convinced until i found the documenting page by chance). if you want to read the document, do a web search with Dvorak, and add something else like 1975 or eastern pacific. i didnt bookmark it, doh.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 0331z07july
wonder what the focal mechanism will be down in the gulf, if something does form. for some reason i have little faith in that trough south of louisiana.. think it will come together a bit off from there. models arent going nuts and all jumping on it, so mediocre confidence. there are days for this to happen anyway.
ive looked at the eastpac cooling.. it's a pretty drastic pulse of cold. sort of thing that could wreck el nino on the east side of the equatorial pacific, if it keeps up for long.
odd random interest:
look at the eastpac systems from 1975 on the unisys page. see something odd? i found a document online describing that system, so it isnt a joke (i wasnt convinced until i found the documenting page by chance). if you want to read the document, do a web search with Dvorak, and add something else like 1975 or eastern pacific. i didnt bookmark it, doh.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 0331z07july
Several of the local meteorologists in the area discussed the possibility of something slowly developing in the GOM from the broad area of low pressure SE of New Orleans... Supposedly it's just going to sit stationary in the GOM for the next couple of days....
There is no convection associated with the system at the present time, however, a hugh blob of convection has developed tonight NE of the area over land near the AL, GA, FL borders.... Now if this blob was in the GOM tonight it would be getting all kinds of attention...
Pressure also continue to remain relatively high, so like HF, I'm not sure what mechanism, if any, will be the ultimate trigger to get something cranking.... maybe persistence will win out with this system... time will tell....
I looked at that and said how and the cold water could a storm go that far north and west wow!!! and that storm powered and to a hurricane at over 30 north and the pacific and did not die intill almost hitting cananada west coast that would be cool to see!!!
The western pacific has had ten name storms this year and t.d 10 forms and the western pacific it looks that guam will get it again so what we want and the atlantic is going on by the western pacific and more flooding is going on around the world so you people and texas are geting it very bad and but you guy are not the only ones geting hit by this globble weather pattern from hell so good like and just think that whats could come next heck the earth could get hot or cold the hotter the more rain and mor floods more chages and the storms and if the weather pattern is right more hurricane.with all this stuff and the air who nows whats caming 800 years ago the earth was 2 to 3 times warmmer than it is today than hell than what was called the little ice age hit cooling the earth off these were the year could the years with now summer so warmmer air more rain coldder air little rain. So the some thing was going on before we even came and had the power to even start any thing so that gone one millions of years we are in a hot time that we will be starting to get out of and I think and stade of a little ice age we could all get flood than fryed and than ice out so you all in joy the storms and the snow and the hurricanes to came and that will make thing worth watching in the weather we weather people are going to in joy every minute of it there going to be bigger storms and better hurricane in ever to watch and more snow give me more I need more weather to watch so get ready
Now we look at are low and say that looks like none thing but and the last hour or two there may be some more thunderstorms forming so this will be watched. But some news the track if this storm forms there could be alot of rain for texas so you still have a home it might not be there next week if this thing forms and moves slowly heck if it forms and to a weak t.d the thunderstorm will be speard out on texas afew days before the low even touches texas there could be another 20 inchs of rain so this is just what might go on with this systme even of this system never becomes a t.d there a chance that if it speards some more and thunder storm this could be one hell of a rain storm
Now we look at are low and say that looks like none thing but and the last hour or two there may be some more thunderstorms forming so this will be watched. But some news the track if this storm forms there could be alot of rain for texas so you still have a home it might not be there next week if this thing forms and moves slowly heck if it forms and to a weak t.d the thunderstorm will be speard out on texas afew days before the low even touches texas there could be another 20 inchs of rain so this is just what might go on with this systme even of this system never becomes a t.d there a chance that if it speards some more and thunder storm this could be one hell of a rain storm
sorry I was really geting into it for a time so all just try to stick with tropical forecast no more of the texas stuff. In so was I being mean or just going over the top
Good morning to all. We still have our low pressure area/low pressure trof in the GOMEX this morning and development still appears possible, especially into next week (early to mid week). I looked at the IR-4 GOMEX loop this morning and made a few observations:
1. The convection associated with this system needs to have more persistance. In the early frames of the loop there was no convection but early this morning more started to develop.
2. The main area of convection seems to be staying northwest of the circulation. This is not a good trend for a developing system. There are only clouds and isolated showers around the circulation. Hardly anything to cause concern.
3. The cloud pattern with the low worsened over night. Just sligtly, though. Overnight the clouds around the circulation had a rather distinct circulation to them. This morning it has become less well organized. This needs to improve as well.
4. As many have asked, what will be the focusing mechanism? It may just be good old time. As HF said earlier, the front along the GA, FL, and AL borders appears to be washing out quickly. I don't see how this will have positive influence on the system.
All in all, this system will be slow to develop (if it does), and the folks in Texas need to hope that this system gets blasted by a patch of sheer and dry air. If not, sometime next week could be a real washout for Texas. Development or not.
Kevin
I cut back and playing nice so I just came around the NRL and saw that 95l has formed and thats good so that and a few other areas will be watched. I will still talk a little about the weather and other places 90 percent tropical and 10 percent will be fires floods but now bad thing will be said do you know that texas has had a areas 40 inchs of rain what I was trying to say is if this system forms that texas could go to big flooding again. so sorry for geting mean sorry I massed your site up were no one wants to came I was mean saying he he every two minuts
NRL Monterry: 95L Invest
NHC: SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT.
They say a tropical depression could form in the next day or so. I must admit, it does seem to be organizing quickly this morning. There's also convection developing quickly. Finally, something to watch.
It looks like even if this thing does form that it will move on a straight westerly track. That would keep pretty much most of the rain south of the Houston area; which for us would be bad news since we are around 11 inches below normal. The scary thought about all of this is the rain that the central part of the state could receive. I wish it could move more towards the northwest for a couple of reasons. Let's just pray that somehow it does.
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