Anonymous
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Whether you think it will develop or not, I believe that 95L is a go. I was just looking at the latest GOMEX water vapor loop and it appears that the convection on the western edge of the low is really cranking up and trying to move into the center. If this trend continues we'll probably have depression later tonight. If not then, then tommorrow will almost be certain. That is if it can hold together overnight providing it doesn't develop today. Looks like Arthur is finally on his way after so much teasing.
Another area that I believe needs to be watched it the complex of thunderstorms south of the Bahamas. It looks fairly impressive now, but the models don't develop a low until it gets to the western tip of Cuba. It needs to be watched just in case, but the Gulf system it first and foremost. Like HF said, it could get strong if it decides to meander around or only move slowly west in the Gulf. I'm not ruling out a stong category 1, but that is at the low end of possibilities. 
Kevin
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Eduardo
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Thanks for offering this informative sight--There is, in my opinion, much to be learned by communicating with avid weather fanatics who transcend conventional "wheater reporting" boudaries.
I've had the privilage to utilize this site for a few months now, and I found it rather exciting. I am currently a student at Harvard university, in MA--a student who is rather fascinated by hurricanes. Through Harvard's relationship with MIT, i will take a few advanced metereology classes (despite my unrelated major) and will soon humbly attempt to contribute.
Best wishes
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Shawn....I believe what the Recon page was saying was that if this WAS to develop into a system, they would have 6 hourly fixes if it was a threat to the mainland. As it stands now, they are not sending out the Recon plane until tomorrow, and if they indeed find it is stronger than they think, they will then begin 6 hourly fixes.
Hope that helps!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Matthew, grow up. If you want to make an informing post, you are free to do so. Please post something that is easy to read, because what you are posting is not. If there is a system out there, and it does develop, most people here will be coming to talk about IT.
Okay, you can't spell, fine. Maybe English is not your first language, that's okay too. Just stop with all the polls and jibber jabber as people come here many times while at work and don't have the time to read all the posts you have made, they just want information.
I am not being mean, I am just being honest. So please, if you want to contribute, at least CHECK IT before you post.
And I think I know who you are. Your writing is almost giving it away. Judy Garland ring a bell?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Hey Colleen. Actually, the recon is already in the system. From the looks of the link I've provided here it looks like they just arrived in the system. They stated that today they would go out to investigate if a tropical depression has formed. It looks like they won't find a completely closed circulation, just because of the timing. This system is in the progress of develop a closed LLC right now. It would be wise for them to hang around in this thing until dusk. If they don't just might start issuing advisories at 11 tonight and base their decision on microwave data. We'll see.
BTW, I'd like to welcome Edouardo to the board. Hey man, no matter how much you know about the weather you're always welcome to post your thoughts on any tropical systems that may come up. Enjoy posting! 
Bring in the votes! Let's hope we don't a recount.
Recon link (votex data message) :
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT1.html
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Kevin
Weather Master
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They said the recon found a broad, poorly-defined circulation. It also said conditions are favorable for development. A TD could form over the next day or so. The waiting continues. So far in my poll, 2 voters have voted for tommorrow to be the development day of TD 1. The watch continues. Man, I love this stuff! 
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The one thing that it has to do is develop some storms around the center of circulation. It is completly absent of convection around the LLC right now. I'm just not sure yet on whether it has enough time to be our first depression.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Kevin & Shawn....Kevin, you were right. I forgot that the Tropical Statement showed that the Recon would go out today..brain fart...Shawn, sorry about that. :-)
I think you're right Kevin. It looks like a big system and I see the LLC beginning to form there; if they are going to send them out, why can't they just stay out? Is there a certain amount of time they spend in the system on recon or do they just fly in and out to report obs to ? Just curious.
I think, based on 'S more conservative calls in the last year or two, that they will wait and see what happens over night with this system and probably won't see TD until tomorrow morning.
Of course by me saying this, it's almost an absolute certainty that they will call it one at 11:00pm tonight. 
Also...I will need a few more loops to look at, as I've only been looking at the latest ones, but is still moving on a westward track? Or more of n/nw track? It looked like it was headed due north to me, but what do I know, LOL!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Shawn....from what I've seen, it has a LOT of potential to develop into something. I just hope it doesn't head to TX because you guys have had so much rain already.
I guess we'll just have to wait, twiddle our thumbs and count to 2000 very slowly. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous (HF)
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low hasnt tightened.. still pretty unfocused. based on the model stuff ive looked at this system hasnt got a great deal of time.. though three models developed it into a weak tropical storm feature, they also brought it in near or south of brownsville between tuesday morning and afternoon.
i'm guessing this will be a tropical storm at landfall, around noon tuesday. might be tracking south of due west.
remember how i was saying watch near florida behind this one? ive seen a couple of model runs that want to make a follow on low.. which isnt very developed, off the west coast of florida around mid week. have to see if the models keep picking up on it.
i'm around 80% on 95L developing now.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 2141z07july
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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The low in the GOM has more convection tonight than last night for sure, but it's not all that intense... not what I'd expect for a TD... system appears to be definitely moving off to the west... the ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere north of the system will continue to move the system off to the west regardless of whether it develops or not...
Does appear to have a broad LLC associated with the system.... Pressures in the GOM are still relatively high, but falling, and no real strong winds noted from the latest bouy obs...
NHC runniing test models on the system... SHIPs has it up to 52K in 72 hours...... here is the link for those interested in viewing the models...
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Looking at the latest vis sat loop from GOES-8 the system in the GOM right now has probably the best signature of any system thus far in the early stages of the season... we're still not there yet, but we're getting close and this system does have the potential for development and possibly become our first named storm... provided it doesn't run a ground on the lower TX upper MEX coast first...... still moving westward, or perhaps just south of due west...
Lets just hope it continues due west with no northerly component and does not get into central and western TX.... they certainly don't need any more rain...
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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yep, looks like TD 1 is on its way, due for arrival at 1030pm EDT tonight, but may be delayed by a few hours to 530 am tomoro morning!
latest visible imagery does indeed show a continually improving system, with some spiral banding features now becomming established. Expect possibly this to become TD one tonight. As for the future of this system. Well, i am guessing it may become Arthur by late monday, and will probably peak at around 50 to 55 mph before moving onshore on Tuesday near or south of Brownsville, Texas. I guess we will have to wait and see, but this is the best candidate so far this season!
Post again soon
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Agree Rich , RAINMAKER !!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The will not classify this as a T.D. until there is some sort of good storm activity around the center of circulation. That means that it certainly will not be classified tonight and unless it fires up pretty good overnight it won't be at the 5:30 in the morning,either. I know that the system is looking rather nice as far as the signature right now, but it is continually losing its convection. I do realize that this does happen when these things are in their developing stages, but the question will be if it can somehow get things firing during the night. Actually, it doesn't matter what it does because it will be too far south to make an inpact on us here around Houston. I wish there was a chance of it being pushed more towards the NW but I just don't see that happening.
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Kevin
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Colleen: The hurricane hunters rarely stay in any system for more than 3-4 hours. This is usually due to reasons such as fuel consomption. And when they are flying around a storm and inside of it, they only use two of the four engines. It's quite hard to see in these things at night and they don't do it unless they absolutely have to. The last time did a nighttime mission (I'm not sure about this) was with Erin of 1995. As long as this thing keep some of it's convection and keeps it's good structure recon will be back in tommorrow.
Shawn: You're correct about the convection issue. I just looked on the IR and the convection is only moderate at best...I have a feeling this could be a problem with this system. In order for TD status by 11 tonight or even 5 tommorrow morning, this thing must hold and develop some more convection. But knowing , they will fly recon in tommorrow afternoon to check on the circulation's status and what kind of shape it's in. The chances of development are about 65% IMO, maybe higher.
Edited by Kevin (Mon Jul 08 2002 12:08 AM)
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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one big thing missing.. there isnt a . a few convergence lines with the appearance of bands, yes, but no big convective burst at the low center to focus it. im not sure why... there's even an anticyclonic flow at the upper levels apparent in the cirrus... seems like the convection should be healthier. the ball is tottering on top of the hill, not rolling down yet.. that will start when the flares up, gets the feedback mechanism going. i expect this to happen tonight.
kevin: night recon isnt a problem, it's pretty common. i'm not sure why first fixes are usually done in the afternoon, just the weather recon guys' routine i guess. but for threatening storms they go in every six hours, day or night.
wondering when jj will show up. he's from texas, and usually makes good calls on tropical systems.
pretty good idea of where this thing is going, just none on how strong it will get.
HanKFranK aiken SC 0020z08july
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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There is an upper low in Louisiana that could be keeping the gulf system in check. I know that sometimes upper lows can help in the development process but not when they are directly north of the system that is trying to develop. If this system was stalled out in the gulf then I would think that the chances would be rather high for it to crank up, but that is not the case here. It will really have to start firing up quickly to have a chance but my confidence in it is steadilly falling.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It is looking more and more like this thing is a goner. Well, the good news about that is at least there won't be all that heavy rain in central Texas.
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