LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This is actually pretty cool. It takes all of wind swath graphics and loops them (from Hurricanetrack.com - great little site BTW).
Wind Swath Graphic Loop
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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What a nightmare for the folks at the . I wouldn't want to be a forecaster along ANY part of land that has WATER next to it. I sure hope they pay them well.
If I were to think like I always think, the discussion this morning may say something like: "will wait and see what the next set of model runs do before changing the official track" or something like that.
Or not.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Gees meto, lol your soo funny. Over last 2 years on here I see you always post storms are going to your house and making it a cat 5. Believe me if you ever get 1 more then a cat 1 you wont want 1 again. Does make me laugh though.
With , yes they are going as of 11am post the current and runs but even those models will change. Key is now curent movement over the next 12 hours, If a wnw path dont start later today then the models might move ever so closer to the w. Then again we all still dont know the strength or pos extention of the ridge to its north 2-3 days out and timing of the next trough or strength. I dont think the next trough right now will get to the central gulf until Sat so S florida still needs to keep a eye on this.
scottsvb
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Looks like the track will continue to move to the right. Here you go Carolinas!! At least it shouldn't be as strong when it gets there. If it continues to the right we may get out of the windfield here in east central Florida. Looks like JB may have this one nailed. Whew!!
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Looks like the Herberts box rule will not apply with this storm. One thing i did notice about the graphic yesterday was that two other historic storm tracks were shown going through the box, but entered it with a much higher latitude, i think this might have made a difference.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Looks like JB may have this one nailed. Whew!!
First of all. No one knows for sure where this one is going, so that "Whew!!" is way too premature.
Second of all, there are a good number of posters on this board who do not live in Florida, so if you guys hopefully avoid a direct hit, someone north is going to take it.
This is a very dangerous storm and everyone needs to keep up their guard!!!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Shawn W.
Unregistered
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40% Data + 15% Trends + 45% Gut Feeling = Projected Path for Hurricane 
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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What type of role will the ULL in the Bahamsa play with this storm ?
Would it surpise any of you to see the track flip flop again back to the west ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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tbaje
Unregistered
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I live in Miami... as of the 11 am advisory the blasted thing still going due west.. waiting for that big turn .. hope it makes it for our sake... although i think the carolinas have seen their share.
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rjp
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Everyone here in Charleston is trying to get their roofs fixed and things cleaned up now that Gaston has passed and possibly threatening. Things won't be pretty if this storm heads in anywhere close and/or to the south of here.
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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I'm in Charleston too, RJP. Yes, we have received a foot of rain from Gaston by taking a direct hit, the roots of trees are so saturated that they were blowing over in 40 mph gusts.
It would absolutely be devestating.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I have noticed a signifigant shift offshore and to the north with , which is no longer forecast to come ashore in Florida. I assume that this means that it is increasingly likely that the system WILL turn north like Floyd
Remember that the five day forecasts are mirroring Floyd's three day tracks
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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
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I agree with Phil. Lets wait until Wed. before we have a party in Fl. As quickly as the track shifted north, it can shift back south and put So. / Cent. Fl under the gun again.
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
What a nightmare for the folks at the . I wouldn't want to be a forecaster along ANY part of land that has WATER next to it. I sure hope they pay them well.
If I were to think like I always think, the discussion this morning may say something like: "will wait and see what the next set of model runs do before changing the official track" or something like that.
Or not.
Yes Colleen, I think they are seeing NOTHING to change their minds about what is likely so until they do, and with 3-4 days left before landfall is likely, they are waiting for 'better signals'.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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there has been a trend over the last day for the track to shift north with each advisory
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I hate to remind all of ya'll in Florida of Andrew but I think now would be a perfect time to do so. If you remember Andrew was predicted to stay completely away from Florida but at the last minute he made a hard left and barreled right at ya'll. My point is that, like some have already stated, just because the models are saying a more northerly track doesn't mean it is etched in stone. Not only that, these models are not agreeing with each other too well right now so that is a BIG problem. Even if does start to take a more WNW or even NW track later, it doesn't mean it will continue it. Bottom line, PLEASE STAY ALERT!!! ALL OF YOU!!!!
ShawnS
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Remember, like Phil said, one shift to the left or right does not make it a "trend". Of course the closer the storm gets to landfall the more validity those shifts have, but 4-5 days out is still a long time. I did notice the leading edges of swell from showing up on the outer Canaveral buoy this morning. As of 11am it was reading 3.0ft@12.9 seconds. This storm has continued to move a little faster than I thought it would, as I didn't see any swell showing up until sometime Wednesday. Also, this morning was the first I had heard any of the local weather guys in central Florida mention the slowing of and a turn to the north, bringing it parallel to the coast, but not making a direct hit. Like I said before it's still way too early to tell that for sure, but was interesting to hear someone other than members on this board mention it. And Phil I have some good friends out on LI so I too hope they're safe.
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Check the Surf
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tbaje
Unregistered
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Quote:
I hate to remind all of ya'll in Florida of Andrew but I think now would be a perfect time to do so. If you remember Andrew was predicted to stay completely away from Florida but at the last minute he made a hard left and barreled right at ya'll. My point is that, like some have already stated, just because the models are saying a more northerly track doesn't mean it is etched in stone. Not only that, these models are not agreeing with each other too well right now so that is a BIG problem. Even if does start to take a more WNW or even NW track later, it doesn't mean it will continue it. Bottom line, PLEASE STAY ALERT!!! ALL OF YOU!!!!
ShawnS
THIS IS THE MOST INTELLIGENT THING SAID ON THIS BOARD FOR THE PAST DAYS!
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Went to the store here in Tampa and everything is going as normal. I talked to the manager at HD and he said there is no high demand for items like there was with charely and business as usual. Went to grocery store and was normal.
People in general in florida are just watching to see if this really has a chance of coming. We all know the Floyd type storms that come close and brush the Bahamas then head up and threaten and even just hitting the outerbanks and out to sea scaring NE. Andrew was diff, there was no doubt it was coming but where was the issue and how strong. Overall most wont hit the stores till Thurs on east coast and late in the day w coast or Friday if track bends back to the left. Right now we just dont know for sure what path it will take. There is no strong trough to affect her till later this weekend and the reason it will start going wnw is the ridge strength and position. Im sticking with around 21N and 70W tomorrow afternoon and near WPB Friday evening. Models will change and the path will adjust with each 6hr run. There is no worries yet on unless you live in the Bahamas and florida if any until later weds. We all say 12Z run on Thurs will nail down landfall within 100miles instead of the current 700.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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It is now time to sit and wait to see if the gradual turns begins to materialize within the next 24 hours. When this turn begins could have a HUGE bearing on where landfall will occur due the proximity of the path. South Florida is now just barely within the three day cone of error. All of Florida , ga and SC are in the five day cone of error. I would suggest that foks in South Florida not let their guard down just yet.
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