doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Good morning: AgentB is correct and if you read the Melborne weather statement you see that analysis better than I can make it. The bet now is the ridge will retreat and the storm will turn quickly to the right nobody knows where...
actually there are four players in this mix: 1. and its intensity...the current situation is rearable...cause: internal disruption due to interaction with Hispanola in the north side of its circulation...that will slacken off as it moves further west...Ivan intensity as forecast is the best assumption.
2. the ULL now at about 30n/55w this has had an influence on the thrust of the ridge to the WSW over the last two days. This has not dived as far down to the sw or maiaintained its vigor as it looked like it would yesterday and if this continues to weaken it will allow the ridge to begin to relax.
3. the atl ridge: see the above for how the pros are forecasting that to play out.
4.The trough on the east coast...not as much of a player as first thought, IMO...the impulse coming across the Tenessee valley has weakened and will move more to the NE than SE
Thus the big player is the axis of the ridge...that is pretty clearly visible on the WV... the WV also shows the moisture path over Florida....the northern most of that is over the big bend area.
Clues for path determination will for me be the moisture streams in the high levels that proceed off the north coast of Cuba as approaches Cuba from the south. In the case of the storm took a direct path following the flows that lead into Charlotte Harbor.
Even now I am beginning to see the projected future path of the hurricane as directly over or just to the right of the Isle of Youth in a NW direction into the W GOM and then NE back into the middle west coast of Florida. Since this is the WORST case for me personally, and I have already been within 25 miles of the centers of two of these in the last three weeks.. THIS IS NOT A WISHCAT...it is just what I see, unfortunately,
people in my area are taking this very seriously unprecedented boarding up and the like...it is af if an internal sense is triggering something...
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doug
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Mozart
Unregistered
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Is that radar updating? It says 4:35?
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
Thanks BillD and AgentB...I see what you mean. It looks at this point, then, that the high is winning and and the ridge is retreating or breaking down.??
Well the "ridge" is from the high pressure. The basics are troughs and ridges. On the WV you can see the trough of low pressure squeezed in between the two high pressure systems. With the high pressure(ridge) to the east of Florida building in closer to the state. Currently it's over part of the Bahamas. What will happen is that will follow along the bottom of the high pressure until it finds the weakness between the two caused by the trough and it will make its turn there and head north. Once it makes the turn that is where it will be going. It will be pretty close to a due north movement once it's turned. Right now it's just a wait and see where the storm makes it turn. Ridge builds further west and the turn comes later, ridge recedes and the turn comes sooner.
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Check the Surf
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I mirrored the jamaican radar to try to not overload them
http://images.flhurricane.com/images/jamaicaradar.jpg
It may not be updating any more.
I'd use that to pass around as it can handle a lot more load than their server.
Quote:
I found what we all will be looking for:
Jamaican Met Service
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/
Jamaican Radar
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/documents/cmax-240-4.gif
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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If the course holds true and Venice through Tampa take a direct hit, it might be the $60 BILLION question. :-(
-Bev
You're exactly right. My husband is in construction here in Tampa and we were just talking about that. If the eye comes up the bay like they're forecasting now, we're in so much trouble. caused a huge flooding problem and she was weak by the time she got here. Most of downtown is built to pre-Andrew codes, and all the electric is underground. During they shut down the entire downtown power grid to avoid storm surge problems, although I'm not entirely sure that will completely alleviate the problem. I'm really frightened to think of what a hurricane this size can do to a major metropolitan area.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Well, this is indeed a serious problem for the Bay area.
For many many years, we've had drills that focused on a hurricane coming in from the Gulf in through Tampa.
Now it seems that it is a very real possibility.
You're right, no one knows for sure the extent of the damage because there are so many many variables. What is certain is that it will be extensive.
I' don't like posts that use words that would cause people to panic. However, if the track is up the West coast of Florida, Poeple all along the track need to take this storm extremely seriously and make sure you are in a place of safety away from any possible storm surge.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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It seems the radar is not updating along with the forecast and warnings on the met page. I wonder if this is why? Meteorologists to strike as approaches.
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html...N_TO_STRIKE.asp
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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My husband just called from Lowe's here in Tampa. He said the lines for plywood were 5 people wide, and looped all the way around the entire store, plus some. The lines for generators were nearly that long, and they don't even have generators right now. They're expecting to get a shipment this morning, but it's not here yet.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Seems odd that track has been shifting right at night and left in the AM. Was the opposite for Francis.. Interesting..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just got this email from BayNews9 in Tampa Bay:
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Manatee County may declare a state of emergency due to Hurricane .
BN9 has details
Unsubscribe at BayNews9.com
That just got my heart racing a bit. Would they(Manatee County EOC) have been in on the conference call with NWS out of Tampa/Ruskin? I can't imagine them doing it without a good reason. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong about that part of it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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It seems the radar is not updating along with the forecast and warnings on the met page. I wonder if this is why? Meteorologists to strike as approaches.
Absolutely UNBELIEVABLE! What can they possibly be thinking... they prove their worth during a Hurricane and should be rewarded accordingly. However, taking advantage of such a life-threatening storm to strike is akin to negligence and reckless endangerment.
-Bev
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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go to this web page, click on doppler, they have both short and long range views, last update I got was 9:15 am
you can see the center on the long range
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Well, not much more prep I can do. Never undid any of the prep for . Looks like Part II to me right now. Only saving grace for me will be that I have DirecTV Sunday Ticket and have something else to watch if the tv goes into all hurricane all the time mode again. This hurricane season can not end fast enough for me.
I think if there is a little more consistency and tight grouping that appears to be starting in the models, the will be shifting the path to the right at 5:00PM. Just wondering about timing myself right now. Hoping it does not slow down on forward motion too much. If the storm is going to come through, it might be better for it to zip on by then to drag on through.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Colleen, have you checked out the latest guess at the track?
It's the worse case scenario for all the west coast florida counties. A hurricane moving north just off the coast pounding wind and storm surge into the coast.
It might be better if the storm were inland .....
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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There ain't much good news...but at least the lastest advisory has "only" as a CAT III at landfall. Bad news...just click on the map to the left of this post. Look where they're calling for the landfall...right smack over and thru Tampa Bay. has been pretty spot on so far with this one, so I think you west coasters better think about getting on I75 before it's a parking lot...
I still feel this will make landfall further south, hopefully at or near the intersection of the Everglades Parkway & I 75 (sorry Naples)...then up North across Okeechobee and out near the Space Coast. Wherever it landfalls, and it will be FLORIDA's West Coast, not the panhandle, it's not going to be good.
I pray for everyone in 's path...at the very least, with two "Practice" runs, at least everyone should be able to secure life and property to the best extent possible.
Grenada is a total wasteland (anyone see the pix?) and I think Jamaica is next for a pounding, big time. Maybe the Jamaican's can work a little voodoo on ??? Jah Mon.
Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Nothing in the 11:00 that changes any assumption not already built into the forecast...just continue to watch that ridge...last look i had it was still building west and had touched SE Florida
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doug
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Phi I agree with you on the path although my gut is more through the everglades impacting western portions of miami dade. Just gut, nothing scientific as i am not a met.... 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, it's gonna be close..whether inland or not. I don't know how big it is compared to or , but I'm still not comfortable with a track that close to us. It has not changed a whole lot in the last two days at all.
Also...did you notice how long it takes to get from the west coast to inland? Almost 24 hours. Yikes!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RobNYJ
Unregistered
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11am has it going over Tampa, any indications that it will follow a path simpliar to ?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Morning, Phil!  That's the 5AM map..but they might as well just leave it up until 5pm.
If the storm makes landfall further south, we'll be in the ne quadrant of the storm.
No scenarios are looking like any fun right now.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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