Hurricane Ivan Paths - FLHurricane.com

Please note the Gas Rationing Rumor for Florida that has been going on is FALSE. There is no gas rationing going on.

3PM
Windfield of Ivan and Jamaica: (Thanks skeetobite)

2PM Update
Ivan's track has shifted a little westward at 11AM. It looks like it will hold category 4 strength as it nears Jamaica. More to come around 5.

(Note errors may be large on this graphic!)

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan is currently approaching Jamaica, and will be very close or over Jamaica by late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Some of the outer edges of Ivan are already being felt there.

(Thanks Skeetobite)

The good news is that it's looking a bit weaker than ysterday when it was a category 5 for part of the day. It will still be a major system when it gets to Jamaica, but not a category 5. Whatever it will be when it reaches Jamaica I hope for the best and I hope all there have prepared as best they could.

After Jamaica, it will cross over Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico briefly. Models are starting to consolidate and want to take the storm into the Western Florida coast, again at an angle that makes picking a particular town or location along the west coast very difficult. The timeline would be Monday night and Tuesday for a Florida landfall. There still is time for it to change, but right now I don't see anything to doubt the current National Hurricane Center track.

Another Florida hit would again open up even more chance for Flooding and more tree and damage on top of existing damage that we already have seen this year.

(Note forecasts at this range can have up to 200 mile errors!)

** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use
Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606

Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
Jamaican Weather Service
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US