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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
      #25809 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:20 AM

3PM
Ivan is left of the NHC forecast a bit, and models are starting to trend more westward... again. It will be a long week folks.

2PM
Reports of heavy damage in the Cayman Islands as well as storm surge flooding.


Noon
Just in case you wanted a bit more dash of confusion, the global models have shifted a bit east around noon. I'll wait on the trends and the motion of the storm. And at the same time, the storm has wobbled left of the NHC's track a bit.


11AM
Tropical Storm watches are up for the Keys, the NHC track remains the same. Watch for the turn today, model guidance suggests it. Intensity forecasts are equally as problematic as the track.

There really isn't any overwhelming reason to doubt the NHC's track, although it hinges on a Northwestward turn later today.

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan this morning is Southwest of the Cayman islands, again going south of and west of the forecast track from yesterday. The slower motion also adds uncertainty, and pushes out the possible timeline. Assuming it does turn north, weíd be looking for a US landfall Wednesday night or Thursday.

Ivan is still sneaking westward now, and the slower and further west it goes the more of a monkey wrench it throws into the 5 day forecast. It already has thrown it off a bit. The cone of error due to itís slow movement is huge. Itís possible for the storm to get very close to the Yucatan now before it might make its northward turn (if at all).



Weíll be looking for gains in latitude today, for the future track of Ivan. Itís persistently been left of the track so far, and the trend may continue. However, once it does make a northward turn it could head back east some, so the entire Gulf still needs to watch it. Ivan is being a pain and I can almost guarantee a few more surprises before itís over with. Look for movement northward to begin before the day is over with, and if it does not, all bets are off.

Large storms on this scale (strong Category 5ish) tend to do what they want at these latitudes Ė ďignoringĒ climatology, so itís not too surprising that the forecasts have been off. Itís great news for Grand Cayman. But the slower the forward motion the more uncertainty where it will go. Today, the future track of Ivan is still shaky at best. But the most likely landfall remains the Florida Panhandle, but the confidence in that is so low at the moment, itís hardly worth mentioning.


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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop

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Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Seele
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: MikeC]
      #25815 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:49 AM

This is great news for the Caymans as I wake up this morning. Hopefully this damage will be minimal for a storm of this power and distance to them.

Strangely enough, I think the current weakening due to an eye wall replacement cycle may have happened at the worst time for the Caymans. The latest vortex message reports a 70 mile (60 NM) diamater secondary eye wall with the max winds on that, I think you can even see it in the sat photo on the intro post. This would put the Caymans in the worst part of the hurricane right now.


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: MikeC]
      #25816 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:50 AM

I noticed on wv images dry air north of Ivan,is this caused by him sucking up all the moisture?Also I thought women where the most hard to predict.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: MikeC]
      #25817 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:51 AM

Ivan should start it's northward turn very soon, the good thing is that since the storm has grown in size, much more shear will be affecting it then opposed to a small storm. Hopefully it will get torn to pieces but that's not that likely, I wonder what the recon is going to report.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: MikeC]
      #25818 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:51 AM

Seems everyone is uncertain about Ivan's future...I just read this in AOL's headline news...

"Millions more people are in its path, with Ivan projected to go between the Cayman Islands, make a direct hit on Cuba and then either move into the Gulf of Mexico or hit South Florida."

I was thinking that south Florida was pretty much in the clear...

thoughts???


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: k___g]
      #25820 - Sun Sep 12 2004 10:56 AM

TheTpc says weak steering currents inlong term,tells me they have no idea what will happen once its enters gulf?

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: k___g]
      #25821 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:00 AM

Of course it is. We have bought all the plywood and generators available and the tourists may leave next so sure, Florida is in the clear. I am afraid I am getting very cynical

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: k___g]
      #25822 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:00 AM

I don't know where they got that South Florida was going to be hit, even though the NHC says it's going to the panhandle. It's not like AOL has there own TPC, or do they!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Track [Re: spook]
      #25823 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM

...and since they don't have a whole lot of confidence than that is why they are not moving the track even though they say it is because everything is on schedule. No since in moving the track if you don't know where to move it to; best just to leave it as is.

ShawnS


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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: spook]
      #25824 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM

the latesy hasnt changed much!

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: spook]
      #25825 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM

tend to agree with you on that.. if this happens it should turn north, if not it stays west. been waiting on that northern turn for a few days now. i don't think they expected it to slow down either. personally not to wish bad luck on someone else but i hope it keeps going west and never makes that northern turn. i think a few others have done the same but a few have made that turn. so we still don't know

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: k___g]
      #25826 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:02 AM

No one is in the clear until Ivan is permenantly on land. I have seen storms in the past do strange things like go in cirlces, go backwards, then forward. Hurricanes are just plain unpredictalbe creatures.

Quote:

Seems everyone is uncertain about Ivan's future...I just read this in AOL's headline news...

"Millions more people are in its path, with Ivan projected to go between the Cayman Islands, make a direct hit on Cuba and then either move into the Gulf of Mexico or hit South Florida."

I was thinking that south Florida was pretty much in the clear...

thoughts???




--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: Keith234]
      #25827 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:03 AM

Well, AOL is usually the first place I go for my tropical information. Then if still in doubt I come to this board.

AOL ??


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lois/bobbi
Unregistered




ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: rd522525]
      #25828 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:05 AM

someone warn them fast

watching sats
whole set up is so e/w here its beyond words yet we are still expecting a move to the north

yesterday there was a weakness in the ridge to the north of Ivan, he didnt bite..

hard to believe he is going to climb

see the front but its a dry one so far and storms like wet warm water... wet big trofs racing down..

not sure this isnt going into the yucatan..
you be the judge

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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belleami
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: Keith234]
      #25829 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:05 AM

Well here on the island I am packing, just in case. Happy to think that it may go farther west than yesterday's track (no offense meant to all west of me).

The uncertainty is maddening.... but we're packing anyway to be on the safe side.
No hotels seem to be available in Tallahassee to Jacksonville; Dothan and points south either.

--------------------
hang on!


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Track [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #25830 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:07 AM

I wish I was in the keys today nopeople.No Storm!!!

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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: lois/bobbi]
      #25831 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:08 AM

my thoughts too! well see.

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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: belleami]
      #25832 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:14 AM

We've got hotel rooms in Naples, where I am nervous but optimistic. At least, I think I am optimistic?

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spook
Unregistered




Re: ivan heading for the yucatan? [Re: rd522525]
      #25833 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:15 AM

The TPC is the experts,the last time I listened to an expert I lost money in the stock marketGo figure!.

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jamserve
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South [Re: KC]
      #25834 - Sun Sep 12 2004 11:16 AM

http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm

Here's an interesting link to current wx in the Cayman's. Check out the rain rate.

J


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