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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan to Know Where it Goes
      #25999 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:05 PM

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen

Hurricane Ivan is leaving the Cayman Islands, but now still heading West Northwest toward the Yucatan Channel. It hasn't turned yet. Mexico has put up Tropical Storm Watches for the Yucatan.



Ivan is expect to turn north and then venture into the Gulf when steering currents may weaken, adding to the unknown future of the forecast track. The National Hurricane Center expect it to weaken some once it arrives in the gulf, which is some good news, but still remain a major hurricane at landfall.

Low confidence track, do not plan based on this, errors may be 300+ miiles off.


Currently it's category 4, but with concentric eyewalls, one about 40nm wide and another 15nm wide. This indicates it probably will regain category 5 again tonight.

Bottom line, as far as the US is concerned, we still aren't sure where. The entire Gulf coast needs to watch this, with special interest in the Panhandle of Florida. Things may change.... Stay tuned. Surprises still to come. I must say I do think heading westward to Louisiana, etc is very unlikely.

** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use

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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
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Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


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Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
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Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes [Re: MikeC]
      #26007 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:11 PM

Thanks for the new thread, Mike. Site's been holding up reasonably well, considering the circumstances...

Your new server can't get here soon enough!

I know ALOT of you have been sending Mike contributions and I want to thank all of you who have. If you like the site, and want to keep it due-free & adfree (I think we all want that), please consider throwing a couple of bucks Mike's way...did it myself last night, using paypal...simple, fast and easy...all the contributions are going towards the new server.

Oh, yeah, I guess we got a hurricane going on...

let's talk about that!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes [Re: MikeC]
      #26008 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:16 PM


Quote:

BUT looking at the latest water vapor satellite image I see a slight weakening of the large Bermuda high pressure ridge and a strengthening and southward digging of the 500 mb shortwave in the vicinity of SE Texas/SW Louisiana. I think this trend will continue, with forecast models and the NHC official track coming back towards the east with time.

There is still a good "chance" for a further east landfall in the vicinity of Cedar Key with some damaging storm surge in the shallow estuary of Tampa Bay and northward along the Nature Coast.



I'm a greenie at this, a real greenie, but I am seeing the same thing. In the interest of my education, I'd sure like to hear more discussion of this scenario.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Something to consider.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26009 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:17 PM

The Models, this season, have in the general sense been too far to the left...Mr. Stewart is well aware of this, and I surmise that this is the reason that the NHC track is to the right of the guidance, and I concur with this completely.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26011 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 PM

If only Mr. Stewart could write every discussion.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26012 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:19 PM

I agree, and, if I remember correctly, the GFDL and BAM are most likely to exhibit this bias. FWIW, the new ETA shows it getting into the Cent. Gulf, then moving east of due north sparing La. This, too, tends to be a leftward model, but I am more accustomed to its biases in the winter time with east coast storms.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26013 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:22 PM

Do you see that tropical wave 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands, I now it's early but it's huge. Let's concentrate on Ivan, though.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: MrSpock]
      #26014 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:23 PM

As we've said before, Stewart writes his discussions really well. They are thought out with a lot of information and easy to follow and understand.

BTW, Ivan now appears to finally be moving more NW.
I expect it will continue and possibly even lean toward NNW in the coming hours.


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26015 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:23 PM

Well, the man has to sleep sometime!

And to be fair, the others do a really good job. It is just that some explain their thought process more than others, and Mr. Stewart does the most explaining, which is why we like his discussions.

Bill


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26016 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:26 PM

Last post on Stewart..

It is, I believe, an art to be such a highly respected met as he is, forgetting more about the weather than most of us will ever know, to "dumb down" a discussion so folks like me can understand it. Not too verbose, but always JUST the right amount of info...in a way, Jason & Clark are very much like that and I'm so glad they give of their time and energies to post here!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26017 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 PM

It was almost as though he was reading from the last two pages on the previous thread. Maybe we're not so "green" after all.

I have had a feeling all along that the slowdown in Ivan's forward movement changed things considerably. The NHC might be keeping the W/NW movement for now until they see more consistency. Have you noticed that with every advisory since about 11pm last night that they have kept the track to the right of the model guidance? This might be why.
I'm not afraid to put my neck on the chopping block since no one can actually GET to me with an actual axe, but I think (and I stress "I" very highly here) that down the line we may see that track move back to the right ever so slowly.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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TAZRACER
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Loc: Latimer MS
Re: Ivan to Know Where it Goes [Re: Sadie]
      #26018 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 PM

TWC just said that IvanS winds are at 165mph thats not good

--------------------
Taz racer


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26019 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 PM

I agree with you, it is starting to turn to the the Northwest, let's see what happens.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: Something to consider.... [Re: Keith234]
      #26020 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:35 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

I'm not seeing NW here. I still see WNW with a little hint of W on the last frame.

ShawnS


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KJJBCr
Unregistered




Re: Something to consider.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26021 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:36 PM

I'm very impressed. This is about Jason from WJHG website http://www.wjhg.com/station/bios/weather/474432.html: Born and raised in west Alabama, Jason Kelley has known since a very young age that meteorology was his destiny. Jason was three years old during the SuperOutbreak on April 3 and 4, 1974, the largest outbreak of Tornadoes in US history.

"I remember quite clearly the weather that day, in fact, it is the only clear memory I have from that age. It made quite an impression on me that carries on to this day".

Jason attended the University of Alabama and the Broadcast Meteorology Program on campus at Mississippi State. Upon completion at MSU, he began his broadcasting career as Chief Meteorologist at WABG-TV, the ABC affiliate in Greenville, MS. Four years later he left TV for a while to work in several capacities at Baron Services in Huntsville, AL. Baron is the leading supplier of Doppler Radar and displays for the Broadcast industry, and Jason was one of the designers of the VIPIR system (which is in use at WJHG!).

Jason also served and continues to serve as a teacher and lecturer of Doppler radar interpretation and severe weather forecasting at conferences across the country. After Baron, Jason made his way to WJHG in the spring of 1999.

Jason is a licensed Amateur Radio operator (KC5JEA) and also teaches classes at Gulf Coast Community College in its Lifelong Learning department. He is a true geek, with interests in computers and home theater equipment. He also leads his Sunday School class at Woodlawn United Methodist Church.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: KJJBCr]
      #26022 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:38 PM

Wow, reminds me I need to update the about CFHC page here, it's fairly out of date now. Next year will start the 10th year of doing this, and it's gonna look a bit different for it .

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Charter member of the JK fan club? [Re: KJJBCr]
      #26023 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:40 PM

Doing best JK:

"Aw shucks."

Yet there are people on this website (not the regulars, usually the clueless drifters) who constantly try to rip him a new one...amazing.

JK rocks, that's for sure.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #26025 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:42 PM

I see the NW, mark off all the boxes except the ones on the ends and then slow the time down. Put your mouse pointer at the center of the eye in the first frame and compare the two locations of the eye. Hope that helps.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Charter member of the JK fan club? [Re: LI Phil]
      #26027 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:44 PM

agreed. It is awfully nice to have JK and the other mets contributing, not everyone would do that.

The last few frames of NW movement are still going to keep Ivan ever so slightly left of the next forecast plot, but with sharpening trough, it needs to be watched to see if it turns into a trend. The eye has tightened up, and the threshold for cat 5 is 920 mbs, and it is now at 916, and looks to be dropping.


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Something to consider.... [Re: Keith234]
      #26028 - Sun Sep 12 2004 05:44 PM

On the overall trend of things, it is significant that the Yucatan coast now has a TS warning and hurricane watch! Not too many of us expected Ivan to move as far south of Grand Cayman as it did.
I mentioned last night that I didn't expect Ivan to move north of Cuba's latitude for the next 48 hours, and it looks like we might have to wait another 48 hours from this point ... as Mr Stewart is now pointing out. NHC is certainly earning their money this year, particularly with Ivan.
Now that the ridge to the north is breaking down, we can all anticipate a more NW movement with some acceleration after 24 hours. At this point, I'm still living within the 48 hour window ... something that those of us living along the coast (at a latitude above 23) need to get used to.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."

Edited by RevUp (Sun Sep 12 2004 05:47 PM)


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