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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tampa News Local Met [Re: scottsvb]
      #26618 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:44 PM

Bay News 9 in Tampa just reported that there would be a major forecast track adjustment made at 11pm tonight. What in the world does that mean??

--Lou


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anon
Unregistered




Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: LI Phil]
      #26621 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:48 PM

Quote:

I was watching The Perfect Storm (for the 800th time) last night and I was actually picturing you trying to ride it out...

Glad you're taking the safe route! Peace.




Are you sure that wasn't "Forrest Gump" with the last shrimp boat left.......


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waatcher
Unregistered




Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26622 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:49 PM

anyone feel that new orleans is pretty much in the clear at this point?

best wishes going to anyone who is in the path


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: recmod]
      #26623 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:49 PM

One of two things:

(1) More West
(2) More East

If west, just how far west, and if further east, who does this put back into play?

Are we talking New Orleans? As a CAT IV...unimaginable death and destruction.

Are we talking Big Bend?

Was going to go to bed early tonight as I'm flat out exhausted, but now I have to stick around for the 11...maybe the intermediate outlook will bear new fruit.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: waatcher]
      #26624 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:50 PM

cancun radar pic

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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: recmod]
      #26625 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:51 PM

I will stay up till 11 to find out...........................we all need to do this.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: hurricane_run]
      #26626 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:51 PM

I was Really tempted to title the thread Ivan - East vs West, but TD#11 threw that out. 11's going to be interesting after Ivan too.

About the only thing I can suggest right now is to be careful staring at the satellite loops too long. And those along the coast should be prepared. Ivan has a lot of folks nervous around the Gulf.



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FunkyLamb
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26627 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:51 PM

Hey everyone. New to the board.

I was just curious if anyone is monitoring the RAMSDIS loops. It seems to me in the last few frames that the storm is trying to make a jog to the west again. Can anyone confirm this or are my eyes giveng out?

PS...Great Forum!

--------------------
FunkyLamb

I'm just a simple man trying to make my way in the universe.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: LI Phil]
      #26628 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:52 PM

It WON"T be more west unless something dramatic and unexpected happens...

And I don't think it will be dramatically right either, although I think it will be a bit more to the right...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Barometric pressure to 910 [Re: MikeC]
      #26629 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:53 PM

Many of us have been in an extended tropical depression since Charley and no relief in site with all that disturbed weather in the Atlantic.

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
something else to consider [Re: LI Phil]
      #26630 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:53 PM

cat 4 or 5...but look at the tremendous size of this storm...!

with an eyewall that large, and wind speeds of 160 +

People here at the dealership are quiet and making phone calls...making plans..

I remember Opal...a cat 5 close to Mobile..then veered toward Pensacola, and came in as a cat 2...

However, Opal developed in the Bay of Campeche..and wasn't the size and overall strong structure this storm is...


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: recmod]
      #26631 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:54 PM

my question would be "Whose track adjustment?"
If it is the NHC, they shouldn't say that. If it is theirs, why not say it now?
Jason made a very good point that was touched on in a model discussion I read earlier. All of the morning runs were run when he was moving wnw, not the nnw that he is moving now.
I would make one more point: yesterday, when I was detailing the upper level environment, and when I expected it to change, I had figured only on a nw movement, not nnw, and neither did anyone else that I read (discussion-wise). That shows me 2 things:
1. Even though this is a large cat 5, it CAN be turned
2. the models may have underestimated the strength of that ULL and maybe overestimated a shade the strength of the high steering it.
A couple more things to stuff into the already-overflowing memory bank.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: wxman007]
      #26632 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:54 PM

Since you're on the inside...maybe you can ascertain this talk of track shift...

and welcome aboard funky sheep!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Orlando
Unregistered




Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: recmod]
      #26633 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:55 PM

Quote:

Bay News 9 in Tampa just reported that there would be a major forecast track adjustment made at 11pm tonight. What in the world does that mean??

--Lou




What exactly does this mean? Who in their right mind would do reporting like this?


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St. David
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 74
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: FunkyLamb]
      #26634 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:55 PM

it is moving slightly west now. its moving around 305 (nw)probably.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: FunkyLamb]
      #26635 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:55 PM

I see a little jog west - I'm pretty sure it's just Ivan doing his normal land-swerving move. After this, we'll see if Phil's Florida Straits solution will pan out. As for TD 11, I agree that it is something to watch out for later on.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML

Good Point, the above 'solution' is just a little joke for anyone out there who doesn't know. Sorry for any confusion.

Edited by ShaggyDude (Mon Sep 13 2004 06:02 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
History?? [Re: FunkyLamb]
      #26636 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:57 PM

It is going to be a close call on whether an official landfall occurs on the tip of Cuba. I checked out all the past tracks back to 1886 at weatherunderground and could NOT find one cat. 5 to actually have its eye go over Cuba. That's 118 years. Hey LI Phil, the Red Sox have even won a few World Series since that time. I guess this storm is really history.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Tampa News Local Met [Re: wxman007]
      #26637 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:57 PM

It saw the tip of Cuba,he hates land,but once it the gulf ?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26638 - Mon Sep 13 2004 05:59 PM

>>> After this, we'll see if Phil's Florida Straits solution will pan out

Shagg, scoob here. Just so as not to confuse or alarm anyone. The "Florida Strait's solution" is NOT an option. I opined last evening that since Ivan has danced around every piece of land so far, with the exception of the poor bastids on Grenada, once he cleared Coobah, he'd have to go east and south of the Keys to miss land again.

Never rely on anything I say...not that any of you do anyway . This is an extremely serious situation, so listen to the NHC...

Can we make Stacy write EVERY discussion...no offense to the others...but he is da bomb!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: LI Phil]
      #26639 - Mon Sep 13 2004 06:05 PM

That trof in the Gulf is still quite sharp, and I figure is centered around 91 west, so I expect Ivan to continue just right of nw for a while longer. Also, the forecast track by the NHC the other day at this point was maybe 50 miles east of where it is. I think that was actually very close, and in a difficult situation as well. I have to tip my hat (when I am wearing one) to the NHC.

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