Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards

7:15 Update

Ivan threads the needle and avoids a direct landfall on Cuba, the eye is now partially in the Gulf.

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen

The City of New Orleans, LA is under a voluntary evacuation now. NO Prep Guide, Jefferson Parish, LA. (Links to other EM sites and event related links for possibly affected areas are welcome)

Other counties, such as Gulf County, in Florida are starting evacuations now. See local media for details. (Gratuitous Link to JKs WJHG7 here (Panama City Beach,FL))

5:15PM Update
Recon has found 910mb pressure since the 5PM advisory. It's still a strong Category 5 storm.

Original Update
Tropical Depression Eleven has formed East of the Leeward islands,. A tropical storm warning is up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Watches are up for the British Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Marteen.

Hurricane Ivan is moving more northward now--to the North Northwest-- and should barely clip the extreme western end of Cuba. It's moving North Northwest now, which means its track north is underway.

Hurricane watches may go up along the northeastern gulf coast late tonight.

The future track still has it making landfall in the Florida Panhandle, and if anything, now I think it would trend further east than anything. That means that the West coast of Florida is still not in the clear. I think the models are, for once, too far left. It seems like the National Hurricane Center has a pretty good handle on it now. Although it depends on if Ivan continues to move or if it slows down in the gulf.

More to come later...

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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from Mid Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

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