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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: RECON? [Re: danielw]
      #33802 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:45 AM

well that just makes the next models runs interesting! recon has in-flight problem and ndbc is down, and now we must wait on sats. so much for modern technology! wonder what NHC is doing now? seems someone has turned out the lights on them....wonder if they are kinda like blind now, and must wait until sats are back up and if/or another recon will replace af866

interesting season!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: RECON? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33803 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:56 AM

new sat.........weaker looking....storms have hit shear...
cdo more to east than north


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: RECON? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33804 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:57 AM

I rough plotted the recon flight. The closest they got was about 200NM NE of the storm center.
Here is the interesting part of the flight. Due to the pressure gradient between Matthew and the E Coast High.
The winds, at flight level, were actually higher over the Mouth of the Mississippi River, than they were 200 miles from the storm.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #33805 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:04 AM

Yep, took a bite out the cloud cover.
Use this link and check out the high thin cirrus on the NW quad.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES05452004283opNjES.jpg

Do you think Recon may have seen nothing on radar and turned around?
Latest image shows even less convection than before.

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 03:21 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #33806 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:26 AM

Storm Floater is now aimed at the central GOM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re:Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #33807 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:32 AM

Do you think Recon may have seen nothing on radar and turned around?

Don't think that would be the reason but possible. Probably hit 40 hrs and they want a new crew to avoid OT

I can't believe you said that!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 04:29 AM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re:Satellites [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33808 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:37 AM

I know you want it so here... AFD form Tally. The last part is the best!

.SHORT TERM...MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE ON A PATH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WILL BE NORTHEAST
TODAY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST FOR WESTERLY ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TS WINDS SHOULD ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
MID-DAY SUNDAY AND COULD BE IMPACTING THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER ON
SUNDAY. MATTHEW SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO ALABAMA ON MONDAY...YET
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST AS RAIN TRAILS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FL PANHANDLE...BIG BEND...AND ALABAMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BEYOND OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN
THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Satellites [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33809 - Sat Oct 09 2004 04:35 AM

I wonder why TWC hasn't updated their sat loops to reflect the current images. Matthew doesn't look any stronger than a summer thunderstorm at this point. Something turned him into nothing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Coop was right ! [Re: danielw]
      #33810 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:04 AM

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ089-091530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AT 25.5N 92.9W 1002 MB AT
0900 UTC MOVING NE 8 KT. MATTHEW WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
AND MOVE TO 26.4N 92.0W AT 1800 UTC OCT 09...28.1N
90.5W AT 0600 UTC OCT 10...THEN INLAND NEAR 30.6N 89.4W AT 1800
UTC OCT 10...AND FURTHER INLAND NEAR 32.5N 89.5W AT 0600 UTC OCT
11.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

THE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ASSUMED CENTER LOCATION AND HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AND HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS MOST GENEROUS. I WOULD NEVER GUESS THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT I WOULD RATHER NOT KILL THE STORM BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY. THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND...NOT SURPRISINGLY...I AM FORECASTING THAT MATHEW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN....
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
The above posts are edited versions. Full Advisory available under "Current Storms"


Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 05:16 AM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 329
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: More Thomas [Re: Prospero]
      #33811 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:52 AM

Quote:



Well, guess it has been over a week since we had our last one. At least now I know next time we can photograph our spoiled food and FEMA will take of it. (Or so I heard.)




Excellent post - I hope the moderators consider opening a permanent forum devoted to life experiences with FEMA and state authorities AFTER a hurricane so that others can learn. It is certainly not easy to know all the 'rules' and folks being able to come view what other's have experienced after the storm is really worth its weight in gold before the storm.

Great idea. I've sent your post to the Administration. Thanks-danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 06:04 AM)


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John C
Unregistered




Re: More Thomas [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #33812 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:16 AM

We do have a forum called "Disaster Forum" for this purpose.

May re-word it a bit.

Thanks
John


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 141
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Nicole??? [Re: ]
      #33814 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:46 AM

Looks like we may have another one to watch soon:

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
28N60W DRIFTING NW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS
LOCATED ALONG THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF A LARGE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW SW OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE LOW
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH.
WHILE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...LATEST SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CENTER
WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS. NONETHELESS...SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD TO NW AND THE UPPER LOW DROPS SEWD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: More Thomas [Re: ]
      #33815 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:43 AM

Hey all, just checking in here. We're between 2-3" now in Metairie. I set the clock early so I wouln't miss that band that was around Houma all day, and luckily I had timed it right to wake up. It's nothing big, but I'm not missing whatever limited excitement I can get out of Matthew since it's the start of a 3 day weekend. And btw, I'd like to wish a happy Columbus Day to all the Columbians.

Looking at the latest Channel-4 Loop, I'd say that Matthew has taken a jog to the northeast from the beginning of the frame to the end (6:42EDT). Unfortunately the dry line is creeping up on me so I don't know if there will be another round of storms for us when the next round of convection cranks.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: More Thomas [Re: Steve]
      #33816 - Sat Oct 09 2004 07:12 AM

Thanks for keeping us updated, Steve.

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anony
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33817 - Sat Oct 09 2004 08:52 AM

that two nautical miles at the end of the recon means the fix is good +/- 2 miles, not that the center is 2 miles wide,fyi.

sc


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: recon [Re: anony]
      #33820 - Sat Oct 09 2004 09:49 AM

New thread...by Ed Head over there.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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