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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico
      #33744 - Fri Oct 08 2004 04:54 PM

The fourteenth tropical depression has skipped striaght to Tropical Storm Matthew has formed now in the western Gulf of mexico after a few week break following Jeanne and Lisa.

This is the 13th tropical storm, however, and it's moving eastward right now, expected to move slightly more northeastward in a few days.

The current forecast track has it entering land near Panama City Beach, FL in the Florida Panhandle. This could change however. You folks don't need this after Ivan, so I really hope it changes. And likely it will, the confidence in that track is very very low.

The good news however, is that there is a good deal of shear in the gulf, and a baroclinic low trying to form. If matthew tries to move north too soon, that will tear it up. However if it makes its way more eastward it will have a little bit more time to strengthen. But I think conditions in the Gulf right now are likely to keep it just a tropical storm.

No watches or warnings are up currently.



Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Matthew Models -- This image animated over time
Matthew Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Matthew Plots from Weather Underground
Matthew Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Matthew Radar Image

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tallahassee
Mobile, AL
Tampa Bay
New Orleans


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Mount st. Helens Volcanocam animation
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #33745 - Fri Oct 08 2004 04:56 PM

Thanks for the new thread Mike. I posted this on the last thread but I'm so angry I am reposting it here:

Yep...straight to Matthew...

I know Ed doesn't like NHC bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!

This thing was a TD yesterday...why they had to futz around with whether it will be subtropical, baroclinic yada yada yada. Now we have a friggin' Tropical Storm in the GOM...and they tell us on a Friday Afternoon at 5:00 on a Holiday Weekend! Thanks...

At least anyone on these boards had warning.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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lilyv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: LI Phil]
      #33748 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:01 PM

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200414.html
I know the folks on the Gulf coast have had enough. My UWF student just got back to school on the 5th. I'm really hoping this won't be too bad.


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.65N 88.14W
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: lilyv]
      #33750 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:07 PM

Well, This country girl is headed to the hills of Citronelle (30 miles north of Mobile, AL). Supposed to meet the adjuster (finally) in the morning from Ivan damage. Maybe it will help him see where the roof is leaking. You guys pray that my daughter's school cancels their homecoming program tomorrow. I've been trying to tell them for three days that this was coming, but they said "if it rains" this and "if it rains" that. Oh well, I may stay in the hills (inside) of Citronelle while they tromp through the mud tomorrow. We'll see. But, please whisper a prayer for us in the Mobile area. Thanks.

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #33751 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:13 PM

>>> please whisper a prayer for us in the Mobile area. Thanks.

You got it.

Maybe you should give the school a link to this site...

I hope and pray this doesn't make it above TS status...it won't take much to finish off what Ivan couldn't...

The Season From Hell...like VD...the gift that just keeps on giving...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steveunplugged
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #33752 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:14 PM

>>I know Ed doesn't like NHC bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!

Bastardi had been pretty irritated about it too (as I'm sure you read). There is a split between a developing baroclinic low in the NW Gulf and the LLC of Matthew witch es meving easthward (sic - old joke) which will probably turn up into the Panhandle. Bastardi thinks it moves toward the Big Bend and emerges on the other side Wed. and possibly runs the coast ala Hazel 1954. Ain't much happening here except for a couple inches of rain, but I've got the beer iced up for tonight and plan on hanging out on my carport all night drinking. Good luck to all and may the severity be limited in your general area.

Steve


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #33753 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:19 PM

>>> Bastardi had been pretty irritated about it too (as I'm sure you read). There is a split between a developing baroclinic low in the NW Gulf and the LLC of Matthew witch es meving easthward (sic - old joke)

Steve - LOL. Yeah, last thread I posted on JB. Love the "Matthew" reference. I knew it wouldn't take long

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.65N 88.14W
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: LI Phil]
      #33754 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:17 PM

Thanks for the prayers. Who knows, maybe we'll still be talking about this being offshore on Monday!?!?! I know we need rain, but it was blowing so hard this morning in Citronelle, it almost blew the tarps off the house. Well, there isn't really anything we can do except wait, watch and pray. Thanks for all of the wonderful information that this board provides. I had a judge friend who is a weather freak like me (they threaten to buy me a slicker suit at work - I am a paralegal) who gave me this site two or three years ago and I have been hooked ever since, just too shy or think I am too dumb (weather wise) to post. Thanks again to all!!!

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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lilyv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #33755 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:54 PM

Kimberly, Mobile is such a lovely city. I have really enjoyed my visits there.
I will certainly keep the folks there in my prayers.
Take care.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: LI Phil]
      #33757 - Fri Oct 08 2004 06:04 PM

If they waited this long to declare it a tropical storm, it will be a cat 2 hurricane before it makes landfall and the landfall will be in Central Florida instead of Alabama. The give it an inch theory in operation here. ( I am not irritated just not surprised that anything else tropical this year will be downplayed no matter how bad it is because the money, time and efforts it takes to mobilize the weary people who have been moving from disaster to disaster this year.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33758 - Fri Oct 08 2004 06:17 PM

Site note, I added a new RDF/RSS feed for storm positions http://flhurricane.com/xml/currentstormsrss.xml

off a request, it's real short and should work ok with things like live bookmarks in firefox and other rss news gatherers. (Note this is in addition to and seperate from the main page news rss feed)


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33759 - Fri Oct 08 2004 06:18 PM

Wheee, seems we're back in business again :-/

Great job on the RSS deal, this site just keeps getting better

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2

Edited by leetdan (Fri Oct 08 2004 06:26 PM)


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Soutehrn4sure
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #33760 - Fri Oct 08 2004 06:51 PM

Hey Kim....Just wanted to send a friendly Mobilian hello

I live in Semmes but have a good friend in Chunchula...

Southern4sure


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Soutehrn4sure]
      #33761 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:00 PM

VLAD GURERRO!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
recon [Re: LI Phil]
      #33766 - Fri Oct 08 2004 08:02 PM

URNT12 KNHC 082333
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/2333Z
B. 24 DEG 35 MIN N
93 DEG 46 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 181 DEG 009 NM
F. 266 DEG 35 KT
G. 178 DEG 021 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 26 C/ 323 M
J. 25 C/ 325 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF966 02DDA INVEST OB 23
MAX FL WIND 50 KT E QUAD 2149Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
MAX FL TEMP 26C 190/032NM FROM FL CNTR.


not a good sign....pressure still at 1000mb
and strong winds on inbound to east of center...55mph....around 45 at surface i think...but inner structure only .1nm wide and winds still at 35kts....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 09 2004 12:38 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33769 - Fri Oct 08 2004 08:42 PM

Will number 13 be a lucky number or an unlucky number. The overall weather scenario described makes it sound like the tropical storm will never be a very big problem to anyone, but I have to wonder why the NHC was so slow to discuss it. Either they were hoping it would go away, or it is so unpredictable that no one wants to take a stab at it. I hope that it is just a temporary wobble in forecasting expertise

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Fri Oct 08 2004 08:45 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Thoughts from Thomas [Re: LI Phil]
      #33770 - Fri Oct 08 2004 08:49 PM

Thomas also had this thing as a storm for days too. Here is what he had to say at noon today:

I just reviewed the latest visible, IR and water vapor satellite imagery loops and other raw synoptic weather data. We still have a low level circulation and even more convection today then yesterday. But we do have some WSW wind shearing.
In my 31+ year weather forecasting career judgment, we not only have had T.D. #14 in the western GOM for a couple of days, we now T.S. Matthew.

And here is what he said as of 4 pm today:

Yes T.C. Matthew is a threat to Florida. I've been banging this war drum since Saturday September 25, 2004 and will continue. Right now I'm calling the disturbance in the SW Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Storm Matthew, even though the NHC/TPC is still not even identifying it as a tropical depression.

My initial probable landfall was Panama City BUT as far east as Cedar Key is possible as a CAT 1 hurricane. As a matter of fact depending on just how the steering pattern hammers out, the whole west coast of Florida north of Naples must watch and prepare for a possible hurricane strike early next week.

Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Thoughts from Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33772 - Fri Oct 08 2004 09:02 PM

I am afraid that my gut feeling when I saw the position of this storm tonight for the first time was a big uh..oh... for Tampa Bay. It has been fortunate to this point to be at odd angles to approaching storms and has been through some near misses. But, its about the only place in Florida left that has not been thoroughly pounded. That makes it a big fat bull's eye if the eastward trend continues. From the Northwestatlantic satellite angle it looks chillingly like it could do that. But then two dimensional pictures are deceiving.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Concerns [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33773 - Fri Oct 08 2004 09:26 PM

Concerned about the consistant cold cloud tops being maintained by Matthew. WV indicating a 2nd Low developing just W of Matthew, as mentioned by TPC in ADV#1.

And the Low moving due south along the CO / KA border into TX. The low seems to be intensifying, and is beginning to trigger Thunderstorm activity in W Texas, per WV loops through 0100Z.


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: recon [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33774 - Fri Oct 08 2004 09:28 PM

Quote:

I hope that it is just a temporary wobble in forecasting expertise.


LOL. Let's hope so. A lot of us with a child named Matthew were hoping this would never come, but knew it was inevitable.
... And we thought we might enjoy a second weekend in a row around here without having to think about tropical storms, etc. Certainly, a lot can happen in the next few days, although the sooner Matthew leaves the scene, the better.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Concerns [Re: danielw]
      #33775 - Fri Oct 08 2004 09:36 PM

According to NRL, Matthew is now up to 45 mph, with a central pressure down 1mb to 1000mb.

--Lou


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Concerns [Re: recmod]
      #33776 - Fri Oct 08 2004 09:45 PM

Well Polk County has a lot of trees down, a lot of debris waiting to be moved and some trees that are just waiting for a breeze to knock them over. So, it is possible that any prolonged rain or light continuous wind would inflict additional damage.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Concerns [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33779 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:02 PM

This panel from today's MRF with a low pressure center and high rainfall bullseye moving east toward central Florida has received a lot of attention today, I'm sure.
Jeff


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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: Concerns [Re: RevUp]
      #33781 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:11 PM

NHC/TPC have a new Invest (96L)

25kts-1009mb-278N-600W


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Concerns [Re: HumanCookie]
      #33782 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:25 PM

That would be the Low they were watching off the Bermuda Coast. Have to check into that more.
The above mentioned Low is not reflected in Aviation WX Ctr's current analysis.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/?PHPSESSID=d3789dde7433be3840d32fe86ff58f78
The low can be seen here over the OK panhandle.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/NA/WV/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

For the Floridians- these forecast maps show Matthew tracking into the mid LA coast.
Please use the TPC/NHC Advisories for formal info. This is just another Govt. source, and angle.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 08 2004 10:34 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
1030PM Tropical WX Outlook [Re: danielw]
      #33783 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:35 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE National Hurricane Center HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 08 2004 10:37 PM)


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Guest
Unregistered




Re: Concerns [Re: RevUp]
      #33784 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:41 PM

Inappropriate post removed.

Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 09 2004 12:36 AM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
More Thomas [Re: Guest]
      #33785 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:53 PM

Here is what Thomas had to say when he was accused of calling Mathew a T.S. 5 hours before the NHC did:

I called T.S. Matthew T.S. Matthew because it met all of the agreed upon parameters to be called such a beast. I pay no mind to what the NHC/TPC says or thinks. It's called real weather forecasting, not parroting the official government line.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Prospero
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 46
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: More Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33788 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:19 PM



Well, guess it has been over a week since we had our last one. At least now I know next time we can photograph our spoiled food and FEMA will take of it. (Or so I heard.)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
11PM Advisory [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33789 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:23 PM

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Additional Information is available under "Current Storms" header.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 08 2004 11:25 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: More Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33790 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:30 PM

Quote:

Here is what Thomas had to say when he was accused of calling Mathew a T.S. 5 hours before the NHC did:

I called T.S. Matthew T.S. Matthew because it met all of the agreed upon parameters to be called such a beast. I pay no mind to what the NHC/TPC says or thinks. It's called real weather forecasting, not parroting the official government line.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL




Yes Thomas really put me in my place . I didn't think asking a question would get that much attention .

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: LI Phil]
      #33791 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:56 PM

Quote:

\
I know Ed doesn't like NHC bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!

This thing was a TD yesterday...




I was supposed to do some outdoorsy things this weekend and since it was supposed to rain, I looked at the LA doppler radar. Not looking promising, I looked at the GOM IR to see what was coming our way after the immediate rain. When I saw that area in the western Gulf this morning, it sure looked like something to me.... Glad I am not just seeing things....

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
:( [Re: HCW]
      #33792 - Sat Oct 09 2004 12:27 AM

grrrr. After having gone through Ivan and seeing how things are TRYING to get back to a little normalcy around here ---as the junk piles up. I just can't believe there's a TS with the track right back over the area! Good grief!!!! There are so many damaged roofs. NOT GOOD

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: :( [Re: SirCane]
      #33794 - Sat Oct 09 2004 12:59 AM

Models are coming out.
Canadian model takes Matthew to a Houma, LA to Little Rock, AR path.

UKMET takes Matthew to Pensacola, across the FL peninsula, east of Daytona Beach, and then to offshore Cape Hatteras at 132hrs or Thursday morning at 12Z.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Terra]
      #33795 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:02 AM

Sorry, but I disagree. In my opinion, the tropical cyclone was a TD this morning, but not a TS - and certainly not yesterday when it was still poorly organized. One person's opinion (including mine) does not make it necessarily so. Measurement and analysis are the real tools that settle the question, not opinion.

As to TS Matthew, I'm still having trouble visualizing the northward leg of the forecast track - I just can't find any significant support for it. The storm may well continue on a general east northeast course for the next few days. If that happens, I'd look for landfall (as a 50 knot Tropical Storm) somewhere between the mouth of the Suwannee River and Cedar Key around 22Z Monday evening with exit near Palm Valley at 09Z on the 12th (at 40 knots). Since Matthew has hybrid characteristics, it would probably hold TS status across the northern Peninsula. Its a rather small system, so both the wind field and the rainfall should not be widespread. Earlier today the GFDL did bring it up to hurricane status, but I think that the westerly shear is too great for that much intensification to take place. At any rate is sure looks like yet another storm for Florida in 2004.
Cheers,
ED


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33796 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:32 AM

Having a fun tropical night myself. Beers are being chugged and cigs are being smoked. The bulk of the worst weather tonight has been in Terrebonne Parish where, in some parts, they're on a 2-day total of 10"+. There was a several hour training band from the Gulf just west of Houma, and that's now pulled slightly east.

Ed,

As Joe B said at 11, if it tracks far enough south, it will remain in the entrance region into the jet (Quad 1). That's different from shear. Should that be the case, Matthew has a chance to go higher than 50 IMHO.

Landfall will be east of me, but I'm just hoping for another tropical day or so if possible.

Steve

--------------------
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Storm Hunter
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recon on the way! [Re: Steve]
      #33797 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:41 AM

URNT11 KNHC 090516
97779 05164 70291 9000/ 30200 15036 0707/ /3144
RMK AF866 0314A MATTHEW OB 01


my recon guess, i think pressure may go down to around 997mb, winds 45kts....
movem.....ene 8kts
thinking a strong TS at landfall close to PCB area....late sunday night

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 09 2004 01:52 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Steve]
      #33798 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:56 AM

I have noticed the high thin cirrus is more prevalent on the western quads of Matthew. Sat imagery through 0400Z continues to show a central storm core with very high cloud tops and a near-complete ring of -75 to -80deg cloud top temperatures surrounding the core.

Recon is airborne should have some new data within the hour.


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mikeG
Unregistered




RECON? [Re: danielw]
      #33800 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:26 AM

URNT11 KNHC 090618
97779 06184 70292 8980/ 24400 15044 0909/ /8010
RMK AF866 0314A MATTHEW OB 04
LAST REPORT.

MUST OF HAD PROBLEM


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: RECON? [Re: mikeG]
      #33801 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:37 AM

Yep, I was just telling Coop the same thing.
NDBC-buoy center down, sats down-for another hour.

The cirrus outflow has me concerned. Buoys aren't reflecting an increase in windspeeds, but the cirrus "fingers" on the W semicircle are very obvious. Where's the shear?


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Storm Hunter
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Re: RECON? [Re: danielw]
      #33802 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:45 AM

well that just makes the next models runs interesting! recon has in-flight problem and ndbc is down, and now we must wait on sats. so much for modern technology! wonder what NHC is doing now? seems someone has turned out the lights on them....wonder if they are kinda like blind now, and must wait until sats are back up and if/or another recon will replace af866

interesting season!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: RECON? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33803 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:56 AM

new sat.........weaker looking....storms have hit shear...
cdo more to east than north


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: RECON? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33804 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:57 AM

I rough plotted the recon flight. The closest they got was about 200NM NE of the storm center.
Here is the interesting part of the flight. Due to the pressure gradient between Matthew and the E Coast High.
The winds, at flight level, were actually higher over the Mouth of the Mississippi River, than they were 200 miles from the storm.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #33805 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:04 AM

Yep, took a bite out the cloud cover.
Use this link and check out the high thin cirrus on the NW quad.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES05452004283opNjES.jpg

Do you think Recon may have seen nothing on radar and turned around?
Latest image shows even less convection than before.

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 03:21 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #33806 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:26 AM

Storm Floater is now aimed at the central GOM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html


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Storm Cooper
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Re:Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #33807 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:32 AM

Do you think Recon may have seen nothing on radar and turned around?

Don't think that would be the reason but possible. Probably hit 40 hrs and they want a new crew to avoid OT

I can't believe you said that!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 04:29 AM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re:Satellites [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33808 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:37 AM

I know you want it so here... AFD form Tally. The last part is the best!

.SHORT TERM...MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE ON A PATH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WILL BE NORTHEAST
TODAY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST FOR WESTERLY ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TS WINDS SHOULD ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
MID-DAY SUNDAY AND COULD BE IMPACTING THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER ON
SUNDAY. MATTHEW SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO ALABAMA ON MONDAY...YET
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST AS RAIN TRAILS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FL PANHANDLE...BIG BEND...AND ALABAMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BEYOND OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN
THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Satellites [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33809 - Sat Oct 09 2004 04:35 AM

I wonder why TWC hasn't updated their sat loops to reflect the current images. Matthew doesn't look any stronger than a summer thunderstorm at this point. Something turned him into nothing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Coop was right ! [Re: danielw]
      #33810 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:04 AM

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ089-091530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AT 25.5N 92.9W 1002 MB AT
0900 UTC MOVING NE 8 KT. MATTHEW WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
AND MOVE TO 26.4N 92.0W AT 1800 UTC OCT 09...28.1N
90.5W AT 0600 UTC OCT 10...THEN INLAND NEAR 30.6N 89.4W AT 1800
UTC OCT 10...AND FURTHER INLAND NEAR 32.5N 89.5W AT 0600 UTC OCT
11.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

THE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ASSUMED CENTER LOCATION AND HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AND HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS MOST GENEROUS. I WOULD NEVER GUESS THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT I WOULD RATHER NOT KILL THE STORM BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY. THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND...NOT SURPRISINGLY...I AM FORECASTING THAT MATHEW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN....
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
The above posts are edited versions. Full Advisory available under "Current Storms"


Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 05:16 AM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Re: More Thomas [Re: Prospero]
      #33811 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:52 AM

Quote:



Well, guess it has been over a week since we had our last one. At least now I know next time we can photograph our spoiled food and FEMA will take of it. (Or so I heard.)




Excellent post - I hope the moderators consider opening a permanent forum devoted to life experiences with FEMA and state authorities AFTER a hurricane so that others can learn. It is certainly not easy to know all the 'rules' and folks being able to come view what other's have experienced after the storm is really worth its weight in gold before the storm.

Great idea. I've sent your post to the Administration. Thanks-danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 06:04 AM)


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John C
Unregistered




Re: More Thomas [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #33812 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:16 AM

We do have a forum called "Disaster Forum" for this purpose.

May re-word it a bit.

Thanks
John


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Nicole??? [Re: ]
      #33814 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:46 AM

Looks like we may have another one to watch soon:

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
28N60W DRIFTING NW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS
LOCATED ALONG THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF A LARGE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW SW OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE LOW
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH.
WHILE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...LATEST SATELLITE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CENTER
WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS. NONETHELESS...SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD TO NW AND THE UPPER LOW DROPS SEWD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: More Thomas [Re: ]
      #33815 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:43 AM

Hey all, just checking in here. We're between 2-3" now in Metairie. I set the clock early so I wouln't miss that band that was around Houma all day, and luckily I had timed it right to wake up. It's nothing big, but I'm not missing whatever limited excitement I can get out of Matthew since it's the start of a 3 day weekend. And btw, I'd like to wish a happy Columbus Day to all the Columbians.

Looking at the latest Channel-4 Loop, I'd say that Matthew has taken a jog to the northeast from the beginning of the frame to the end (6:42EDT). Unfortunately the dry line is creeping up on me so I don't know if there will be another round of storms for us when the next round of convection cranks.

Steve

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
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Re: More Thomas [Re: Steve]
      #33816 - Sat Oct 09 2004 07:12 AM

Thanks for keeping us updated, Steve.

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anony
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33817 - Sat Oct 09 2004 08:52 AM

that two nautical miles at the end of the recon means the fix is good +/- 2 miles, not that the center is 2 miles wide,fyi.

sc


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Storm Cooper
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Re: recon [Re: anony]
      #33820 - Sat Oct 09 2004 09:49 AM

New thread...by Ed Head over there.

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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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