LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Thank you. Been watching it tonight on a few loops. Read a few people.. boards, blogs, bastardi.. and appreciate the heads up.
Looks like by tomorrow morning there could be 3 systems...
td 17.. phillipe
td 18?
and system behind depression currently known as 17
good luck everyone, going to be a long few days
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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We have TS Phillipe and TD18 at 11:00.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
Local statements for South Florida have us all on edge. Too much like ...
Bill
Edited by BillD (Sun Sep 18 2005 02:42 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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No longer 96L...now TD18 according to .
Ok...NHC is having problems with their listing. I think they are trying to figure out how to get everything posted or such...as they have TD18, TD17, and TS Philippe now...with Ophelia stuff appearing under parts of TD18...and Ophelia vanishing before she went .
And reload...TD18, TD17, and TD18. Er...??? - someone is having problems there 
And reload...TD18, TS Philippe, and TD18...lets see how long it keeps up before someone at calls tech support 
Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 18 2005 02:49 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Just like that.... Hurricane Watches just east of the South Florida coast. WOW!!!!!
How things change quickly.
At 11 PM EDT...the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwest Bahamas.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
No longer 96L...now TD18 according to .
They have a few problems with the list - stuff under TD18 includes both Ophelia and TD18 right now...depending on the item. I wonder if maybe they only can support 5 systems on the website setup so they're retiring Ophelia from their page before it goes ?
I noticed that too... but we had 3 named storms earlier in the season (Katrina, Lee, and Maria I think - at least). I suspect that Ophelia has been declared as of 11pm. The 11am advisory indicated that the transition was expected within 12 hours, didn't it?
Philippe is a definate fish spinner, thankfully. Hopefully it stays that way.
The odd thing about TD 18 is that the last IR imagery I looked at made it look very badly defined. But I've been unable to get IRL Monterey site to load most of today, and SSD has not moved a floater to it yet, or hadn't last time I checked. The forecast track is certainly more encouraging than I anticipated, but 5 days out it's hard to trust right now.
Maybe by tomorrow the will have corrected their headings.
ETA: They initially issued the statements for TD 18 under the wrong heading... that has been fixed now, per the corrected advisory package at . I guess they haven't sent out the latest package for Ophelia - probably discovered the mistake when they went to send it out LOL
ETA 2: Ophelia has officially been declared . The has issued its final advisory, despite the fact that the Canadian Hurricane Center has maintained its watches and warnings for Nova Scotia and other locations. Landfall of Ophelia is expected overnight.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 18 2005 02:55 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Just like that.... Hurricane Watches just east of the South Florida coast. WOW!!!!!
How things change quickly.
At 11 PM EDT...the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwest Bahamas.
Yeah no kidding. Looks like the Sept. 10th peak to the hurricane season ended up being a week late!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
I noticed that too... but we had 3 named storms earlier in the season (Katrina, Lee, and Maria I think - at least).
We also had Maria, Nate, and Ophelia at once.
Every few minutes the page changes which ones are there...but if you click on 11pm stuff you can sort of figure out what we have:
TD17 -> TS Philippe
96L -> TD18
And the spare one is calling their web developers asking "what am I doing wrong?"
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
I noticed that too... but we had 3 named storms earlier in the season (Katrina, Lee, and Maria I think - at least).
We also had Maria, Nate, and Ophelia at once.
Every few minutes the page changes which ones are there...but if you click on 11pm stuff you can sort of figure out what we have:
TD17 -> TS Philippe
96L -> TD18
And the spare one is calling their web developers asking "what am I doing wrong?"
I thought the spare one was calling their web developers asking "How do I get rid of this pest [Ophelia] that refuses to die even though it's COLD in Canada!??"
They have no graphics up for TD18 currently - at least not the last time I refreshed the page.. and I didn't see a discussion. What's the confidence level in the forecast?
I can just imagine the 10:30pm Tropical Outlook:
"The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Philippe, near the Lesser Antilles, on newly formed Tropical Depression 18 east of the Bahamas, and has pushed Tropical Storm Ophelia off to the Canadian Hurricane Center because we don't have room for it anymore.
Oh, and if you're keeping track, we're issuing advisories on Hurricane Jova, Hurricane Kenneth, and Tropical Storm Lidia in the East Pacific, too. "
Six semi-tropical entities in the western hemisphere at one time. That's got to be a record.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 18 2005 03:06 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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It looks like they got it fixed...and Ophelia returned into the spare one.
I guess she just won't die 
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Since still is down...here are the track graphics they use from a different military source:
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif
(Homepage: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html )
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Yeah, Hugh...6 storms...wow. 2 Hurricanes, 3 TS's, and 1 TD...in the western hemisphere. It's probably been quite lively down at the today.
With TD18 and TS Philippe...we probably will get a new topic soon
Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 18 2005 03:15 AM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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we have philippe active east of the islands, but progged to slowly move north/northwest towards the central atlantic. checks out well with the steering present. some of the globals aren't taking it much further west at all.. do expect some of that later in the period as the ridging becomes flatter and heights rise near the northeast u.s. coast. extended ensembles show ridging near the canadian maritimes, so philippe may be trapped under that or trying to get around it this time next week. right now bermuda looks like the likeliest destination, though.
different story for newly formed TD 18. kind of stupid that it got the upgrade looking like it does after philippe looking better and getting ignored through two advisory cycles. the system is only slowly organizing and i think the hurricane watch for the nw bahamas is probably uncalled for. timetable i had earlier was off from what looks to be the case now.. system should pass by south florida on tuesday. official shows a hurricane around then, and that makes sense. a stronger storm will be further north, a weaker one closer to or over cuba. the maximum potential problem for florida with this thing is nothing compared to what mexico and texas will be facing around september 23rd/24th. most of the globals have the track near the yucatan and into ne mexico, but just barely... the track hooks nw as the ridge erodes and takes the core of the storm nw as it closes in on the coast. mix that solution with the further north track right now and you have a recurving hurricane hitting texas at the end of next week... a mature one that has crossed the gulf. of course thats 6-7 days out and not trustworthy at this point.. but i'd be getting my contingency figured out and ready if i was on the texas coast this week.
wave nearing 40w has a very good signature. favor the southern end to try to do something (too much shear on the northern end). it's low-moderate potential at this point... probably not a threat to land if it can develop.
eastpac is going nuts. three active storms out there right now. if they keep developing, look for the atlantic to remain active. kenneth reaching major status is the first this season in that basin to do so. they've got quantity, but not quality. jova may get close enough to hawaii late next week to affect their weather. modest possibility, at least.
HF 0312z18september
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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New area is watching for development -- from the 11PM :
Quote:
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/180314.shtml
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Here is a possibility from the as the system is over or near the Florida Keys.
The 18Z model rapidly intensifies the system into a 120-kt hurricane in 72 hours. While that rate of intensification may be a little excessive...this system reaching strong category 2 status within the next 72 hours is certainly a viable scenario.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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So, you think this thing could hit even the upper Texas coast or are we looking at only South Texas? Of course, it is still too early to
tell and right now it looks like it will be heading to Mexico. Of course, was supposed to make her second landfall
in the Panhandle and we know what happened there.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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What I find that is amazing is you see the statement "All's quiet in the Atlantic." and then bam, here we go again.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
So, you think this thing could hit even the upper Texas coast or are we looking at only South Texas? Of course, it is still too early to
tell and right now it looks like it will be heading to Mexico. Of course, was supposed to make her second landfall
in the Panhandle and we know what happened there.
Definately too early to tell. Stay tuned
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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the Blob 700 miles wsw of the cape verde islands looks better then phillipe or TD 18 ide have to say.
Edited by Robert (Sun Sep 18 2005 03:55 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Understand that it is only one model run.. or two but the models are showing a very well developed hurricane and the advisories are going for now.. with a strong tropical storm or maybe a hurricane.
Watched all local Miami channels and saw at least 3 different scenarios.
1 called it a probable hurricane or strong tropical storm as it moves over this area
2 called it a depression and most likely a tropical storm
3 one called it as going mostly through the keys as a tropical storm with a big question mark
I understand the need to wait to see models verify and it is only a depression just coming together on the most recent imagery.. but
Looking at models calling it a STRONG cane .. various wind speeds shown and a developing tropical storm on TV on your typical Sunday when people generally pay little attention to the news... worries me a lot.
At least they mentioned that during the Dolphin game there will be constant updates.. shows how serious they are already taking it even if they only have it as a ? on their maps.
Bobbi.. everyone take care and continue to give to the red cross or who ever you wish to give to..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
we have philippe active east of the islands, but progged to slowly move north/northwest towards the central atlantic. checks out well with the steering present. some of the globals aren't taking it much further west at all.. do expect some of that later in the period as the ridging becomes flatter and heights rise near the northeast u.s. coast. extended ensembles show ridging near the canadian maritimes, so philippe may be trapped under that or trying to get around it this time next week. right now bermuda looks like the likeliest destination, though.
HF what you said about the northeast, could that have affect on the path possibly bringing it into the NE US..im not qure i completely understand.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Since the recon found the system more to the sw of sat loc....I expect the impact will be from WPB south and mainly the keys. Probably TS force winds with hurricane conditions near the center. Wont be also as bullish with the system, probably 65-80mph until florida.
scottsvb
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Wow Scott, not what I wanted to hear. We got hit here last year I think around that same time by Jeanne No maybe it was around the 23rd. Anyway I sure hope she skips by me Only time will tell. 
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