scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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well I have friends in the NWS that I worked for a couple years back and also I talk via-email to a person at the (whom I met) so I can get almost the same info as them (except the ). I use a blend of this and data I collect to make my forecasts. Conditions for S florida will start to go down hill after midnight tonight.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Thanks for the information, loooks like rain here again any minute. The worst thing about all this rain is the damn frogs for the next few days at night.
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bn765
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One this thing reaches the Gulf it has all the potential to reach Cat 5
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amonty
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Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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compared to all the other storms we've seen lately it looks like is moving QUICK! Anyone else seeing that? 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Brad...I found this is the discussion, but it doesn't mention anything about an eye forming:
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A
WEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
As for what was or wasn't said by Max Mayfield about an eye forming, it more than likely that he was on a media outlet (cable news, more than likely) and perhaps that is where Bob got his information. You never usually see him except on TV.....Max Mayfield, not Bob!
Evacuation update: MANDATORY evacuations for all of the Keys. Hospitals are closing and the airport is closing at 6pm. As usual, however, there are business/hotel owners that said they will not close and I am sure that they're are residents who will not leave. My personal opinion on this: if you are under a MANDATORY evacuation order and refuse to leave, then I believe that you should be responsible for any damage incurred, and only those that leave should get any government relief. After what did, not heeding evacuation orders is just plain stupid.
/rant. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Mon Sep 19 2005 04:18 PM)
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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As per my post ealier. Maybe a highend CAT4. Nothing is standing in 's way to say otherwise.
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ftlaudbob
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
Bob:
Can you provide a link to the imagery on which you've based your suggestion that an eye is forming somewhere that would require a quick northward adjustment of the forecast path? I've poked around at a few radar links, and I don't see the center anywhere other than just WNW of the 11am advisory position.
Probably a good idea to back up that kind of statement with a link to what you're basing it on. (And I assume Max Mayfield did not suggest an eye was forming somewhere that would require a quick northward adjustment. If so, let us know.)
Thanks,
Brad
They have already shifted it north. [url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentir.html]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentir.html[/url
] MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Sep 19 2005 04:21 PM)
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Lee-Delray
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I though the Keys were being evacuated south of Marathon only. THey are opening shelters there.
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trinibaje
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Colleen - I 100% agree with your comments regarding evacuation. If you have the means to go.. then you should go. The poor people who don't have means, then the gov't should make sure they have a way out. And there are a lot of poor people Key West and througout the keys.
Unfortunately, here in Miami, the overall concensus is that private business owners (like where i work) do not want to release the employees early, because they lost two days with . Which is so unfortunate, that they look at it as free days off, other than giving your employees time to prepare their homes
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Lee: Here...this is from the Sun-Sentinel:
Quote:
A mandatory evacuation for all people from the Seven Mile Bridge to Craig Key in the Upper Keys begins at noon Monday. The noon mandatory evacuation also includes Ocean Reef in North Key Largo. A mandatory evacuation from Craig Key to Key Largo and the Monroe/Miami-Dade County line is to commence at 3 p.m. Monday. There is already a mandatory general evacuation of everyone from the Seven Mile Bridge south to Key West. Mobile home residents, residents of low lying areas and live-aboard boaters were ordered to evacuate countywide earlier.
All shelters in the keys are closed. The shelter at Florida International University in Miami Dade County opens Monday afternoon.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
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On Accuweather, Bastardi indicated that this area is subject to RAPID intesification possibilities. He alluded to the '35 cane that exploded to a cat 5 quickly.
any quick look at the current water vapor loop indicates an explosion of heavy convection right over the LLC....
anyone in the keys who elects to stay, as Colleen so perfectly put it...is foolishness. It makes we wonder why people put their lives at risk. What a disrespect for human life that is.....
One radio station this morning said that they had NEVER registered water temps this high at this time of the year. Highest ever recorded.
how deep are the SST's???????
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Sorry all....here's the link with the complete listings of openings/closings
www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-ritaopenclose,0,7178480.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines
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Brad in Miami
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I'm not referring to the fact that the track and models shifted north. I'm referring to Bob's statement AFTER the 11am advisory (in which the forecast track shifted and the shift in the models was noted):
"There maybe an eye forming,and if it forms where it looks like it will,everything will shift north in a hurry.Max Mayfield also said an eye maybe forming. "
If you see an eye forming farther north than where the has the center located (the eye formation to the north was the basis of your post, unless you mistakenly wrote that), then I'm asking where - on what satellite image - you see that, because that would suggest an even farther shift north than the models suggest and has forecasted (which you recognized in your post - which, again, you posted after the 11am advisory - by suggesting that if it's true, "everything will shift north in a hurry").
I suppose (1) I'm curious to see your basis for the conclusion re: the eye forming more to the north, and (2) if you don't really have a basis for that statement, then the post is inappropriate, based purely on speculation and with the potential to cause unnecessary stress or to spread incorrect information.
Of course there is a chance - a decent chance - the storm will move more to the north (as the has acknowledged) and that Miami-Dade, or even Broward, could experience hurricane force winds. However, I don't think anyone should add fuel to the fire based on pure speculation; that's why I was asking what your source was.
No offense intended, but I do think it's important to either back up such statements with your source, or not post them.
-Brad
Edited by Brad in Miami (Mon Sep 19 2005 04:41 PM)
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bigpapi
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Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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I lived in the Keys for a few years. What they do is evacuate in zones. They don't want everyone hitting the roads at the same time. Obviously withe the direction this storm is heading it will affect the entire island chain. It seems most of the storms to affect them as late came over the western tip of Cuba which let the upper Keys off the hook for the most part. Also to get back in you need Hurricane Evacuation stickers for your car. They are color coded to match the zone.
It's amazing how many times they have evacuated lately with little or no affect. I hope they are taking this seriously and not saying "I made it through Georges". If everyone remembers, Georges traversed all of Hispaniola and most of Cuba before emerging into the Straits.
It's been a while since one ran the whole length starting in the Bahamas.
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Beaumont, TX
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Same concern here as we have 16,000 new residents because of . Of course, the projected path is closer to Houston at this time but they
are saying everyone along Tx/Lou should be watching it.
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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From Accuweather:
Rita continues to strengthen at this hour and will soon be a hurricane. Over very warm water, the storm could become a Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the Keys later Tuesday. Key West is likely to experience the worst of the storm from late Tuesday into early Wednesday with winds gusting to 100 mph, and a relentless pounding from ocean waves. Heavy squalls of rain and wind are likely to reach as far north at South Florida. After passing the Keys, will enter the central Gulf of Mexico during the middle of this week. A large expanse of 85-degree plus water assures that this storm will be very mean and very dangerous as it takes aim at the Texas coast.
Once moves into the Gulf of Mexico it's going to intensify to at least Category 4 strength before making landfall by Friday or Saturday. Accuweather's current projected path has landfall somewhere between Corpus Christie, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisiana
Edited by The Force 2005 (Mon Sep 19 2005 05:04 PM)
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Wxwatcher2
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People are taking this storm seriously. Especially after .
The keys evacuation includes all of the keys Lower, middle and upper keys per the governor of Florida.
It looks as if the track takes the center of almost directly over Key West as a high Cat 1 or a Cat 2 storm.
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Rick on Boat - here's a link for the SSTs you were inquiring about. In a nutshell....bath water!
www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp.htm
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Rita almost due west now; has developed a good core. I believe the intensity forecasts...looks like the forecast track is holding too.
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doug
Edited by doug (Mon Sep 19 2005 05:05 PM)
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Would not be surprised to see it updated as of 2PM update by the . is well supported now, convection is almost even all around. Looks to be heading still at a WNW direction. Keys to take the brunt of for some hours.
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