Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

10:50PM
Rita remains a tropical storm tonight, but convection has increased, so I believe that once it clears Andros Island in the Bahamas it will become a hurricane. The stage is set for fairly rapid intesification overnight. See Clark's blog below for more information.

More to come in the morning, the track hasn't changed since earlier.

5:40PM Update
Rita is currently a strong tropical storm with 70MPH winds, it is moving west northwest, Hurricane Warnings are up from the east coast just south of the broward/dade county line to Key West.

CFHC is mirroring the Bahama's radar At this link. The direct link will not be given out as it is overloaded. (Use the mirrors)
Aditionally there is a long term recording of the Key West Radar started tonight and will run until Rtia is out of Range. You can see it At this link.

Rita is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today. When it enters the Gulf of Mexico it is expected to intensify into a major hurricane.

More to come later, the track forecast hasn't changed all that much, with Texas and Louisiana (Unfortunately) in the cone of error and uncertainty.

Noon update
Rita is up to 65MPH wnds and is wrapping together. The forecast track has been shifted to the right, or more north, and because of this some parts of extreme southwest Florida are in the cone and are under a hurricane watch. And a tropical storm watch is up north to Englewood on the west coast. The other watches and warnings from earlier remain.

The new track takes the system closer to the Keys than the prior one.

7:30am update
Tropical Storm Rita has strengthened some overnight to a 60MPH Tropical Storm as of 5AM. Judging by recon reports it's probably closer to beween 60 and 70MPH now, so it is nearing hurricane strength and will likely become a hurricane later in the day.

Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

It is organizing fairly fast this morning, and still moving westward around 8-10 mph. The official track takes Rita just south of the Florida Keys into the gulf of Mexico. The cone of error still puts South Florida in the zone, however, but the most likely track puts it through the Florida straits ever so close to the Keys.

Because of this, and Rtia nearing hurricane strength already. Hurricane Warnings are up for the now up western Bahama islands. Warnings have been up since last night for the Florida Keys. The Tropical Storm warnings and a hurricane watch remain up for South Florida south of deerfield beach. If the storm were to vere more northward then Hurricane warnings would likely go up for south Florida as well.

If you are in the Keys we recommend evacuating for this one. Listen to local authorities and news media for more information there. Rita is forecast to be a strong category 1 / weak category 2 upon approach to the Keys and that estimate may be a little conservative.

After it enters the Gulf it is expected to move generally westward with a turn slightly to the north as it nears about halfway through the gulf. This means the Texas coast is currently the most likely spot for the track. As of right now there is nothing on the horizon that would keep Rita from strengthening, but that could change and hopefully something can keep Rita's intensity in check. There is lingering dry air in the area they may help that.

The long range cone of error still has northern Mexico through Lousiana, including New Orleans, in the cone of error. Watching for trends in the models is about the best guess for general landfall, and right now the forecast track is trending northward. The best thing here is to watch for persistance and pay more attention to a Gulf area after the storm moves west of Florida.

Read Ed Dunham's met blog below for more discussion on the future track of Rita.

Original Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for the Florida Keys ass Rita moves toward the west northwest. More to come soon.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are up from Deerfield Beach south to the start of the hurricane warning area in the keys. The forecast track has shifted a bit north from earlier as the center of the storm has reformed a bit to the north, meaning a higher likelyhood of the system impacting the Florida Keys.

Rita is expected to continue strengthening as it approaches the Keys. The current track takes it just south or over Key West and into the Gulf eventually putting it in the center Gulf. So the entire Gulf Coastline, Lousiana, Texas, and Northern Mexico Especially, will need to watch Rita too. If you are in the Keys, you need to evacuate, as time will run short. This storm is a relaitvely quick mover compared to prior ones.

Windshear is lowering and there isn't much to keep Rita from becoming a Major Hurricane in 72 hours or so, which is west of the Keys. It's likely that Rita will be a category 2 system as it nears the keys. My rule of thumb is to prepare for one category over what is forecast. Especially when there isn't much to keep the storm from strengthening or weakening like we have with Rita.

Philippe is now a Hurricane moving northward, it has a chance to affect Bermuda, but it now looks like Philippe will pass east of the island by a good margin.

Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com

Event-Related Links
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Cuban Radar

CFHC Long term Key West Radar Recording of Rita
CFHC Long term Bahamas Radar Recording of Rita

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emergency Management/County info
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Video/Audio

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as Rita approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here

Ross from Suncam.tv is streaming video and webcams from the landfall area

Marc Sudduth will likely also be in the area see his live streaming video and audio here

Reply and let us know of other links.

Rita

Animated model plots of Rita

Google Map plot of Rita

Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Dvorak Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop

Philippe

Animated model plots of Philippe

97L

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