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Low in W. Carib now up to a 70% chance of development. Parts of FL will be on the wet side of the system N Gulf and Florida should watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 228 (Nate) , Major: 245 (Maria) Florida - Any: 255 (Irma) Major: 255 (Irma)
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Friday Morning [Re: cieldumort]
      #74732 - Fri May 11 2007 10:42 AM

yeah there is alot of convection right now and what is that other blob ne of her? is it too early to be talking about the huge waves coming off of africa because they look pretty awesome right now.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1643
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Friday Morning [Re: nl]
      #74733 - Fri May 11 2007 11:48 AM

Nice monsoon trough setting up there, but the waves are certainly too far south and with exceptionally high shear just to their north to be of any immediate concern, IMHO. Still, lots of bubbling going on in western Africa.

Getting back to Andrea, NHC is now considering another recon Saturday

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 11 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z MAY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A ANDREA
C. 12/1600Z
D. 29.0N 79.0W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION INTO
ANDREA NEAR 32N AND 73W FOR 13/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS
A THREAT.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Friday Morning [Re: danielw]
      #74734 - Fri May 11 2007 11:52 AM

Looks like it finally started to gain big time convection. Although the NHC doesn't seemed to impressed with it, they are sending a plane tommorrow morning again. Though the blow up may end earlier then that. I did hear that shear is decreasing and that conditions are going to be favorable till Sunday. Been reading the wunderground blogs and some say that the blow up is ending but then I look at the latest IR image, it isn't close to over. Maybe those people just doesn't want to see Andrea back on the maps. Would love it if it gains 60 mph. winds and heavy rains, and head north to Flagler
Anyways, Andrea is surely making a comeback and it's still growing, Named by 5 p.m,?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Not dead yet? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74735 - Fri May 11 2007 11:59 AM

What's left of Andrea may have drifted far enough south to get back into warmer waters and a temporarily less sheared environment.. I'm hesitant to even call it a small CDO yet. but if it does presist for a few more hours, the NHC may have to reinitiate advisories on the system at 5PM. This time as a fully tropical system.

The proximity to land may also force their hand. But again, give a few more hours to show presistanace (I would hazard that's why they didn't restart advisories at 11). There's also the possibility the LLC may be dragged further south as the convection pulses, which could also bring it to warmer waters.

Guess we'll be doing a wait and see.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Not dead yet? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74736 - Fri May 11 2007 12:20 PM

Looks like the LLCC, which is still remarkably well intact, has pulled much closer to the area of deep convection during the past couple of hours. Guess this might not be quite done yet! But can it hold onto the convection, or is this just a short lived attempt at a comeback??

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 813
Loc: hollywood,florida 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Not dead yet? [Re: Rich B]
      #74737 - Fri May 11 2007 12:45 PM

This is getting interesting.Looks like there maybe some rotation starting.Not much shear at all and higher SST.Should know alot more by tommorow am. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1643
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Not dead yet? [Re: Rich B]
      #74738 - Fri May 11 2007 02:08 PM

Yes, the LLC snuggled under some convection, but looking at close-up loops of both the convective flareup and the radar out of Melbourne it appears that the bands themselves are not getting any tighter, overall, but rather are slowly spreading out. Certainly it is actually warmcore-ish now, but hitting this diurnal max might be the final final of Andrea. Think we will need to wait to see if substantially more convection starts to blow up at some point in the next 18 hours or so, otherwise this mornings resurgence is more likely to fizzle, again, and be blown away, as she would literally decay from the inside-out.

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Not dead yet? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74739 - Fri May 11 2007 02:43 PM

LAST NIGHT SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
LOW AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HOWEVER..SINCE THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST AT
11/1500Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS
BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION.

Interesting!!

EDIT: Now we have a STDS too!


--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Fri May 11 2007 03:16 PM)


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