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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: allan]
      #74768 - Sat May 12 2007 11:28 AM

I dunno, Allan. Looking at the last few hours of the satellite loops, while I think Andrea was arguably sufficiently organized 12 hours ago to be considered a tropical storm, I think the dry air and shear are really taking it apart right now. I'm back on the fence I guess. I can definately see rotation on the Melbourne radar, but it appears to be winding down. Deeper convection that had built up around the LLC has bee sheared off, although an even bigger cluster is present well to the east, giving the system a bit of a frontal appearance to me.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Hugh]
      #74769 - Sat May 12 2007 11:35 AM

Ok, just looked at both TCPOD on the NHC site. There is no hint that the one for today has been cancelled, and if it is going ahead it should be airborne within the hour. There is also a possible flight tomorrow scheduled on tomorrows TCPOD. Guessing that NHC thinks its still enough to warrant an investigation, and i would be inclined to agree!!

EDIT: Recon cancelled due to resource, but we do have a STDS!!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Sat May 12 2007 11:38 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rich B]
      #74770 - Sat May 12 2007 11:40 AM

I would have thought it would have been airborne by now, but I guess it's a bit early. The main thing that makes me think they've already written it off is that they're REMOVED Andrea from the website. If they were even potentially inclined to reinitiate advisories they would have left it, particular after the Special Tropical Disturbance statement from yesterday afternoon - which they have also issued no follow-up to. But, if they had cancelled the recon, that would have warranted a statement as well, in my opinion (since there is no TWO in the offseason). To be saying NOTHING... well, it says alot.

Edit: Obviously they issued a STDS as I was typing the above! They say it's moving NE though, which it does not appear to be doing.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat May 12 2007 11:43 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: allan]
      #74771 - Sat May 12 2007 11:40 AM

Quote:

Also, how can you not fly into a very impressive storm for the month of May?




$$$$$$

They have a limited budget for recon flights each year and while this storm is an oddity and interesting in its own right -- there will be much more severe and life-threatening systems that need recon later in the season compared to the remnants of Andrea.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Clark]
      #74772 - Sat May 12 2007 11:48 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Also, how can you not fly into a very impressive storm for the month of May?



$$$$$$
They have a limited budget for recon flights each year and while this storm is an oddity and interesting in its own right -- there will be much more severe and life-threatening systems that need recon later in the season compared to the remnants of Andrea.




The budget should be adjusted for the need. If there are much more severe and life-threatening systems that need recon later in the season (which we all hope won't be the case), they should be able to appropriate emergency funds to do the recon flights then. When I hear "resource issues", I tend to think of personnel issues, but money is obviously an issue as well. However, it shouldn't be. The government spends tons of $$$ every day (on things that are arguably far less of a concern than public safety). Okay I'll get off my soapbox now

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Hugh]
      #74773 - Sat May 12 2007 12:00 PM

There is no reason to send recon out. Its a waste of time and money cause even if it does develop more..it wont affect any landmass..also in 48 hrs or less it will merge with a baroclinic low forming off to the North.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2295
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: MikeC]
      #74774 - Sat May 12 2007 02:49 PM

Some good discussion, but also some bad discussion bordering on 'NHC bashing' which for this system isn't really necessary. The recently issued Special Tropical Disturbance Statement should tell you that NHC is still monitoring the low pressure area. The Recon for today was cancelled because of a 'resources conflict', i.e., it was probably something that NHC had no control over (crew availability, aircraft problem, etc.) and another mission has been scheduled for tomorrow if the low continues to become better organized.

The original system update was based primarily on quicksat winds and a ship report of sustained winds at 37 knots - and not a Recon mission. If the low needs to be upgraded again before Sunday afternoon I'm sure that those same parameters will provide the motivation to do so. The system was dropped because it fell below STD requirements and was expected to weaken further (which it did) - but that doesn't mean that it was being ignored.

Will the former Andrea regenerate? Perhaps - but I'm not going to demand updates from NHC on 'my' schedule. Special Tropical Disturbance Statements are issued whenever NHC feels the need to do so - not when we do - and at the moment, nobody is in harms way... I think that they have the bases covered.

While I'm at it, here are a few Administrative Reminders:

The primary purpose of the site is to offer an exchange of dialogue on tropical entities in the Atlantic basin. The Main Page and Storm Forum are more strictly moderated with an attempt to keep the various discussions 'on topic', i.e., associated with the topics that are presented in the lead-off article. Discussions on the Florida drought are better suited to the Everything and Nothing Forum.

One-line posts are normally deleted since they seldom contain any useful information - use the PM capability to thank someone for answering your question or providing helpful info.

It is not necessary to post an NHC bulletin since links to these reports are available on the left side of the screen and above the Main Page. It is okay to quote a portion of a bulletin to emphasize a particular point that you are making in your post.

If you can help us with these three things it will make the task of moderating the site a lot easier. As the season gets underway, please don't get into a fuss with the Moderators - they would also like their experience here to be a pleasant one.

Thanks for your help and for your efforts to make the CFHC an interesting and enjoyable place to visit.
Cheers,
ED


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74776 - Sat May 12 2007 07:33 PM

This evening, Andrea is looking better than it did a few days ago from a tropical standpoint, but it's not very well organized overall. The persistent convective blowups on the SE side are not translating over the center and often die nearly as fast as they fire. They are likely being driven by the Gulf Stream and the marginal SSTs found there. Everything that satellite shows over the center is just a cirrus canopy, a milky white in visible and light blues and yellows on color-enhanced IR imagery. Ash from the fires to the west plus upper level convergence (confluence -- winds coming together) on the western side of the storm are contributing to the lack of convection there. Essentially, it lacks the "organized" part to its convection and thus is not a classified tropical system. Seeing that on satellite and having other data available to them at least partially led to the NHC's decision (on top of resources).

All in all, Andrea and its remnants have had a good run, but I think the end is near. Water vapor imagery shows a vort max rounding toward the Big Bend region of Florida that should give this just enough of a kick to escape out the escape hatch toward the north and east and into the midlatitudes. Small chance that this doesn't happen and it gets trapped beneath a weak upper ridge to its north and west, but smart money is on the other evolution right now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Clark]
      #74777 - Sat May 12 2007 09:20 PM

A new STDS has been issued as of 9pm ET... basically says it's not a depression but any increase in thunderstorm activity and they'll re-pull the trigger. Since it's moving away from the U.S. I suspect they won't send a recon in tomorrow (no mention of recon in the statement).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
andrea heading out [Re: Hugh]
      #74778 - Sun May 13 2007 12:26 AM

anybody noticed that if it were during the normal season, that andrea would still be getting advisories? that bunk about 'organized convection' is nothing new--a sheared warm-core system generating tropical storm conditions is a tropical storm. andrea has a history of sitting on the fence, but leaning into the realm of tropical cyclones, and getting late calls. in a few months the post-analysis will be out and i'm willing to bet that the NHC will have this leg of andrea's life cycle as a tropical depression or storm. it's been an interesting, quirky storm that has tested the NHC's ability to stick to routine advisories and make decisions on how to operationally contend with it.
tonight it's blowing a decent burst of convection on it's east side, as it's been doing most of the day. there's clearly outflow from the thunderstorms, and you can see the partially exposed, small LLC slowly speeding up to ene ahead of an approaching upper trough. most of the globals show it captured and finishing up as a deepening frontal low out in the north atlantic, and that looks like the end of things.
past andrea there doesn't look like much on the horizon. GFS is sending pulses of tropcial moisture up in the western caribbean and tagging them with surface lows, but the shear appears oppressively high and these will probably just be the usual type of may rain events that get fed up ahead of mid-latitude troughs. once the upper shear begins to recede, as we get into the early summer, these things are more likely to produce a system. andrea is probably the warning shot for a fairly active season. it may be a couple of months or so before things really start to go, though.
HF 0536z13may


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74779 - Sun May 13 2007 01:13 AM

HF brings up a great point - that is, storms such as this that do not necessarily pose any imminent threat, and that are in some ways walking the line between called/no call, sometimes just end up left for the post-season reanalysis when a more careful review of the big-picture and facts can take place. In the meantime, lots of local NWS offices have handled Andrea very well, as have the High Seas Forecasts.

It's pretty clear to me that some internal debate has gone on already with regard to how best describe and attribute Andrea. Just within the past few hours I found these two statements capture well what the larger weather community as a whole has been discussing lol

TWD 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007:
"SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST."

STDS 900 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007
"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING"


In any event, if Andrea is to be named Tropical Depression or Storm
in real time she had better do something to impress the sceptics quickly, as it does appear more and more likely that she has a date very soon with increasingly hostile water temperature and wind shear.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: cieldumort]
      #74782 - Sun May 13 2007 10:05 AM

looking more tropical than ever this morning. it's been hanging onto deep convection all night and has decent low-level banding features... you can see it is still ahead of the frontal trough. bermuda has a decent chance of tropical storm conditions late today into tomorrow as andrea whips by. of course, it's not really andrea, it's just a remnant low .
HF 1505z13may

(reference my earlier post. ED)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun May 13 2007 10:26 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74783 - Sun May 13 2007 11:32 AM

Well, yeah. Overnight and this morning Andrea has reconstituted herself such that IMHO just about any sceptic should now be not only accepting, but embracing of her status as a named storm, and yet, based on the most recent STDS, I can only conclude that NHC has decided to let this one ride out until the post-season, because Andrea overnight and early this morning is looking virtually 100% nameable material.

Lacking any reporting buoys or cman stations in her area at all, and only having a few ships that one could argue are probably trying to avoid her at this point, the apparent decision not to send in recon - again- while understandable, given that she is heading
away from the U.S., is most regrettable. Interests in and close to Bermuda would be wise to treat her as if she was actually a named storm.

Overnight and this morning deeper convection wrapped all the way around the cyclone. Certainly there have been a few breaks in the continuity, and still some more flareups and flaredowns, but overall the structure has been solid, with the LLC nuzzled just about to the right of middle at all times. Even a dimple appeared a few times where a budding eye would eventually try to form in a system with greater chances to grow. Inflow from the south has been nothing but healthy, and there have even been a few outflow channels set up for her, in the SW, NE and SE quads.

The convection doesn't resemble that of a mid-August hurricane traveling through the Gulf of Mexico, because this is most certainly not mid-August and the water temps out where she has been are at least 5c lower than the comparable mid-season example down in the GOM. All the more reason some may want to argue that she is still more subtropical than tropical. I'm still OK with that, I guess. I guess I would say that the far more analogous recent examples at this point would be the late-season northern latitude systems of 2005, than of some early season subtropical disturbance.

It will be interesting to see how she interacts with or responds to the front laying very close to being on top of her now, going forward. That ULL to her west and the front to her north so far have served to create a bit of an outflow opportunity. Merging with the front seems entirely plausible. Would seem less likely but possible for her to be nudged south of it and stay a bit further south, never to merge.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2295
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: andrea heading out [Re: cieldumort]
      #74784 - Sun May 13 2007 11:58 AM

The circulation of the former STS Andrea does indeed look impressive this morning as the low heads off to the east northeast at 15mph - and the low is moving through a sliver of light shear ahead of the frontal system off to the northwest. But the former Andrea has also moved quite a distance away from the strip of 26C SSTs of the Gulf Stream and is rapidly approaching SSTs of 20-22C - and those temps should motivate full extra-tropical transition into a small gale center.

The center may remain south of the front today, but the SSTs will certainly make it difficult for the low to maintain subtropical characteristics - 21C is mighty cool even for sub-tropical stuff, although this system certainly has had some tenacity. Although examples are somewhat scarce, it would seem reasonable to me for extratropical transition to occur at lower latitudes during the pre-season timeframe.
Cheers,
ED


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74785 - Sun May 13 2007 12:52 PM

Ok, i have been keeping an eye on the visible imagery, and the visible loops, and the exAndrea system has developed a clear central 'eye' like feature, surrounded by moderate convection. Low level banding also remains reasonable. This as it continues moving to the ENE over cooler water. Does anybody else see this?

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74786 - Sun May 13 2007 12:56 PM

Part of it is the distinction between a storm hanging on versus a storm that has already been dropped. I don't think anyone can argue that Andrea should not have been dropped initially when it was after 7 advisories.

The NHC, for right or for wrong, has a tendency to be conservative when a storm still has advisories written on it in dropping the storm. They also tend to be conservative when a storm has already been dropped in picking it back up. They might add some time on in post-analysis, but I don't think it'll include much of today (if any). Satellite imagery shows Andrea's remnant circulation going extratropical as it interacts with the broad trough developing over the east, with well-defined cold and warm frontal boundaries developing.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: Clark]
      #74788 - Sun May 13 2007 10:40 PM

most everybody disagrees with me on how to tag andrea. i'm not an expert on the subject, but don't think i'm totally clueless either... but i guess if most everybody with a highly informed opinion has chimed in on one side, and i'm about the only guy yapping on the other... i might be out of my league. in any case, the later part of andrea's life cycle seemed to include regeneration before it fully merged with the frontal boundary late today, so i'm interested in seeing how the authorities will deem to post-analyze the storm. it may have been over cooler waters and all, but from late friday on the persistent convective bursts and the small but well-defined core seemed more than your average remnant low. as the thing picked up speed late saturday and was blowing persistent convection, maintaining a tight core and not part of the frontal zone (and quickscat was showing good evidence of gale force winds), was it then still just a remnant low?
not a definite yes, but not a definite no either, i think. that's for another day, i guess.
HF 0339z14may


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74789 - Sun May 13 2007 11:33 PM

I'll be the first & I'm sure not the last to say that I essentially agree with HF's assessment of Andreas final hours. I saw nothing overnight last night and into the first 15 or so hours of the day today that resembled "remnants" (of a once named and legitimate system.) I view NHC's decision not to upgrade Andrea real-time as just that: a decision not to upgrade real-time. Every season we witness this, in one fashion or another, and very often with numerous examples. Ultimately Andrea did start to merge with the front and lose her hurricane-like appearance, as well as her other tropical & subtropical features, as she should running off to the east along and with an approaching cold front. But certainly HF is spot-on that before she did, she more than met reasonable qualifiers for TS status.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
The week(s) ahead [Re: cieldumort]
      #74795 - Mon May 14 2007 09:42 PM

Some of the models are forecasting disturbances in the Caribbean Sea.
See the posts in the 2007 Forecast Lounge

2007 Forecast Lounge

Opens a new window

Edited by danielw (Mon May 14 2007 09:47 PM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: The week(s) ahead [Re: danielw]
      #74796 - Tue May 15 2007 08:38 AM

EAST...
CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND THE
SLOW UKMET WITH PROGRESSION OF E COAST VORTEX D5-6. THE MODEL TRY
TO INCORPORATE SOME ENERGY FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO ERN
SYSTEM...USING IT TO SPIN UP DEEP SFC CYCLONE OFFSHORE. TIMING OF
THIS INFUSION IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE IT DEPENDS ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROF BECOMES EARLY IN THE PD. IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
EARLY...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MAIN BAND
OF WLYS...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION WOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...ALLOWING ENTIRE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF
FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN
SEABOARD.

When posting an exerpt, please be sure to mention your source.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 15 2007 10:00 AM)


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