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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 313 (Nate) , Major: 331 (Maria) Florida - Any: 341 (Irma) Major: 341 (Irma)
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Ne at 30 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: did the front stall? [Re: weather_wise911]
      #75665 - Sat Jun 30 2007 11:22 AM

Quote:



Still using the term "elsewhere..."
Perhaps the NHC isn't ready to let go???




They mean elsewhere as in "in other areas" not as in "we think this will develop." Don't read more into what they're saying than what they are actually saying. They could just as easily say, "...And in other areas besides this one we just discussed..."

It's just semantics. They're not implying they think this will develop. They're just stating what the likelihood is in other areas outside of this area of discussion.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: did the front stall? [Re: madmumbler]
      #75666 - Sat Jun 30 2007 03:34 PM

I was just saying that although the likelihood is extremely slim... the term elsewhere implies that the possibility does exist for the area mentioned.

I was not implying that the system would develop.... not at all!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
mjo time? [Re: weather_wise911]
      #75667 - Sat Jun 30 2007 04:15 PM

some of y'all have posted excerpts from forecasts indicating that the overall pattern might soon shift over to active with an eastward moving MJO wave. all i can say is that some of the signals i usually look for to expect things to happen are there... the SOI index in the pacific has tipped strongly negative, which is usually associated with strong retrogressive motion in the tropical pacific. the pacific has been really quiet lately... i.e. they didn't get a named storm to form this june anywhere in the pacific ocean. when the bay of bengal and arabian sea are setting the pace for global tropical cyclone activity you know things are in weirdsville. from the looks of things the kind of synoptic scale anomalies that favor tropical cyclones coughing up are about to come together and possibly make july twitch to life.
the good news about july is that tropical systems usually don't have the intensity they tend to accumulate later in the season.. the downside would be that they tend to be slow and rainy. most places in the southeast could use a good drenching (with emphasis on the d4 drought in north alabama), but over in, say, the texas hill country or the edge of the prairies out there, a tropical storm is not in order.
for now the models aren't really showing much of anything. that won't mean a whole lot when/if MJO starts up.
HF 2015z30june


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: mjo time? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #75668 - Sun Jul 01 2007 01:03 PM

Doesn't look like it's going anywhere other than NE, but the FL wave
seems to have some more life today.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: did the front stall? [Re: weather_wise911]
      #75670 - Sun Jul 01 2007 09:48 PM

"the term elsewhere implies that the possibility does exist for the area mentioned."

I've mentioned this before, but ... one more time. The word 'elsewhere' does NOT imply any possibility for the area mentioned. It is a phrase that is always used by NHC whenever they have commented on some feature in the basin. It simply means that 'elsewhere' in the basin there is nothing worthy of comment. Because of the potential for confusion, some forecasters at NHC no longer use the term - see the latest TWO by Brown.
ED


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