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96L may form tomorrow, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should watch it closely. Too soon to tell beyond that.
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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Things to Watch [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75914 - Wed Jul 25 2007 01:38 PM

I saw that too. The GFS doesn't move it or develop it as quickly as the CMC.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Things to Watch [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #75915 - Wed Jul 25 2007 01:48 PM

Quote:

I saw that too. The GFS doesn't move it or develop it as quickly as the CMC.




12z GFS actually has a system for the first time making it all the way towards the eastcoast and also has development of the african coast behind it.

Big change in my opinion.

GFS 10m wind at 300 hours

Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 26 2007 01:36 AM)


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Things to Watch [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #75916 - Wed Jul 25 2007 02:43 PM

Looks like there is some rotation of the clouds in the southern most part of the BOC. Can someone tell me if this is true and if it's at the mid-levels or surface?

Shawn


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Things to Watch [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #75917 - Wed Jul 25 2007 05:13 PM

based on just a quick glance... doesn't look like anything mixed down to the surface, yet. Although i just glanced at the NAM 18Z.... wants to pop something out of that area (a weak closed low) and send it up towards Houston... Just look like a bunch of tropical mositure heading north into TX's region.... Seems to be the only model doing this at this time.... Just took a quick look at NDBC in the GOM...sea level pressures seem still high. The ridge seems to be pretty strong and building in the GOM, atleast the eastern side.
1 km Vis - Floater

MSLP 1000 - 500mb 18 UTC NAM

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jul 25 2007 05:17 PM)


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Things to Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75919 - Wed Jul 25 2007 05:49 PM

That tropical wave in the CATL looks to be organizing right now on satellite. Invest 98L coming soon.

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Things to Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75920 - Wed Jul 25 2007 09:14 PM

Time to chime in on the Gulf of Mexico from my end...I agree with Daniel, there is no evidence of a surface feature mixing down at this point with the weather north of the BoC. Evidence of that can be seen in our last remaining visible shots of the day( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html ), as well as the Shortwave imagery ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html ). The low level cloud features on the south side of the system contintine to plodalong to the west. Albeit,they may be doing that less and less with time.

To that end, this disturbed weather is at some level of interest to me. This morning, it could be noted that there may have been as many as two mid level vorticies in the BOC area. It can also be noted that there was a tropical wave passing, This evening, these disturbed areas have basically consolidated and there is an apparent level of turning in the mid levels. The mid level low is showing some evidence of looking like, walking like, and quacking like a duck at the mid levels, so something may have a chance toevolve at the surface.

Now for model support and unfavorable wind conditions. There is no model support for development, but there is modelsupport for moisturein Texas. If there is no development, Texas can expect to get wet again as the models dictate...and either way, Texas will get at least some moisture from this. However, the mid-level circulation is already showing signs of moving more to the NNE. If...and I say if...development does occur, the mid level and upper level flow would apparently favor this entity heading more towards the Noth Central or North Eastern Gulf. And shear would not be as much of a factor as a developed system would get caught in the overall flow. Shear IS a consideration in the NHC TWO because the computer models foresee the system remaining weak (not develop) and heading more to the North and North West in line with the computer models. If that does occur (which it currently appears thatitmaynot be doing that), then shear will be a factor and it will never get it's act together.

If the thunderstorms persist and the midlevel can transition toward the surface during the day tomorrow, then we may have something to watch. We shall see....


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Happy Birthday Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Things to Watch [Re: dem05]
      #75921 - Wed Jul 25 2007 09:40 PM

Thanks dem05! Going back a bit let's be aware of the big picture and that "one line" post's do not belong on the Main Page.... think about your post before you post!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Things to Watch [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #75922 - Thu Jul 26 2007 12:18 AM

something to watch in the GOM... but i don't see much happening, except for alot of moisture coming north... upper level winds are just not that favorable right now.... i just glanced at some of the 00Z runs running and the GFS now is closing that wave off in the C.ATL by late this weekend.. (day 3-4)... the model is still running.... I am just not sure about this, because of the Dry air out there... and the Dust to the north.... it doesn't look like the wave/low would move that much... the wave is sitting on the ITCZ,

Western North Atlantic 00 UTC GFS 96hr
its not in what i think would be very favorable conditions... if it were more to the west.... maybe a better shot... well see how this looks tomorrow evening!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3458
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Discussion Excerpts [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75923 - Thu Jul 26 2007 02:55 AM

At this hour,2:55am EDT, I am not very impressed or alarmed with the GOM system. But I do see a GOM full of moisture... and that in itself is something to take note of.
The following are excerpts from the various Discussions from the HPC desks. The link provided for each discussions will take you to the latest discussions.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
151 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

...ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR IMPULSES WHICH THE 00Z NAM STRENGTHENS NEAR THE LA COAST AROUND F36 EARLY FRI AND F72 LATE SAT... THIS RUN APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ON AVERAGE VERSUS PAST RUNS WITH ENERGY FLOWING NWD THRU THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS ALL SHOW SIMILAR SFC REFLECTIONS THRU THE PERIOD AND ARE WEAKER AT THE SFC COMPARED TO YDAYS 00Z NAM. IN THE GFS... DETAILS DIFFER EACH RUN BUT THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING MID LVL IMPULSES QUITE WEAK WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SFC REFLECTION.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


...YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING
THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. AS RESULT... AREAS ALONG COASTAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WILL RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdspd.html

DAY1
...ACROSS TX/GULF COAST REGION...
A TREMENDOUS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE BLOB OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SERN/SRN TX SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW POSSIBLE FEEDBACK AND HPC BACKED OFF QPF AMOUNTS A BIT DUE TO THIS AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP. NEEDLESS TO SAY... EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE SATURATED SOUTH TX REGION TO THE COAST.
...FL/SE COAST...
RATHER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER GIVEN DIURNALHEAT... PW VALUES RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE NATURE OF PCPN IN CONVECTION...WOULD
EXPECT SOME 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS AND GIVEN K INDICES AROUND 30.

DAY 2-Friday
TEXAS/WESTERN GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES/DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE DETAILS CONCERNING DAY 3 REMAIN SKETCHY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TEAM UP WITH THE NEARBY UPPER CYCLONE TO
LEAD TO ORGANIZED RAINS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AROUND HOUSTON FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY 2 TIME FRAME /LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/. THEREAFTER...THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THERE.

FLORIDA...
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THIS CALLS FOR AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS
REMAIN STATIONARY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK. SPC SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Things to Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75924 - Thu Jul 26 2007 09:33 AM

There may not be an organizing tropical system in the gulf but there has been a nice blow up of storms out there this morning. I know they are predicting us here in the Houston area to get quite a bit of rain out of this. I can see why looking at that mess out there.

Shawn


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BLTizzle
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Eufaula, AL
Re: Things to Watch [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #75925 - Thu Jul 26 2007 02:08 PM

The 12Z CMC run has much to look at. It calls for MAYBE a depression forming in the gulf with the current wave that is there. It also has a depression/low/storm forming off the African coast, and it has the wave over the Bahamas interacting with a ULL that is over Minnesota right now and becoming something going up the east coast. Think we're about to get going?

--------------------
Brandon in Eufaula, AL - experienced TS Alberto ('93) Opal ('95), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Katrina ('05) (I was in Tuscaloosa AL roughly 70 miles SSE of Columbus, MS)


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 260
Loc: Southeast, FL
Wave at 10n 45w [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75926 - Fri Jul 27 2007 12:23 AM

Wave along 45 west seems to be gaining some convection models not showing much. It seems to have a low level curculation with it.

Some backing also from the NHC

000
AXNT20 KNHC 262331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007


TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 5N45W 10N45W 15N42W MOVING W 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SMALL-SCALE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 10N45W AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A WESTERLY WIND OF 15
KT FROM SHIP A8IY6 AT 18Z JUST S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: Wave at 10n 45w [Re: Robert]
      #75928 - Fri Jul 27 2007 09:55 AM

That wave has hung in there tenaciously. It flares up, it quiets down, it flares up and it's still moving west. IF conditions were even a little bit favorable it would be something to watch more carefully. But, still worth watching.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Wave at 10n 45w [Re: Robert]
      #75929 - Fri Jul 27 2007 10:05 AM

Models aren't picking up on that wave out in the middle of the Atlantic, but I think it's the most interesting thing out there right now. It might be trying to circulate at the surface. There is a little bit of shear out there hindering it from developing more, but the shear has weakened just a bit in the last couple of frames. I'll watch this more closely than the wave out in the eastern Atlantic.

CMC and GFS both pick up on a developing a closed LLC by the end of this weekend. Surprise Suprise the CMC is more aggressive on their 0z run...we'll see.


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
One more thing... [Re: Beach]
      #75931 - Fri Jul 27 2007 12:36 PM

Looking at this WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

It looks like there is a front pushing down into TX/LA.
Will this promote a chance that the disturbance in the GOM could be pushed back into the Gulf and then East?


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: One more thing... [Re: Beach]
      #75932 - Fri Jul 27 2007 05:39 PM

Well.... been looking at Euro sats today... there is a good amount of Dust out there crossing the atl. The models are getting a little more bullish on trying to develope something... the current wave exiting the coast of Africa, i think is the strongest one so far this season. But like others so far, will it filter out? The water temps are not that warm in that region yet and to the north that ridge is strong and coupled along with the area of low pressure over northwestern Africa, i think are allowing the dust to be picked up and travel the atl to the carribean, almost identical to last year. This is common for this to happen. Just now how will the US weather pattern setup in the coming weeks?

I am somewhat more glued now to the C.Atl. region... there appears to be a nice little low trying to form... Low level swirl around 44w 12n ish.... There is some blow up convection tonight around that center....Will see if it can hold for the trip to the carribean....To the west and north of this low, alot of dry air!
Vis Shot

12z Surface (dated)


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 27 2007 05:47 PM)


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: One more thing... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75934 - Sat Jul 28 2007 09:14 AM

NRL shows 98L up? Area in the Eastern Bahamas.


Edited by stormchazer (Sat Jul 28 2007 09:20 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1081
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: One more thing... [Re: stormchazer]
      #75935 - Sat Jul 28 2007 11:58 AM

Re: 98L

There is an existing surface trof running N-S through the general area with a weak low center now where 98L has been initiated. A few models have teased with development in this area. The NAM, MM5, GFS & CMC all to greater or lesser degrees, and with greater or lesser consistency. This area is not hostile to development. While steering currents currently suggest a fish spinner if it develops any further, being so close to the states and various islands, IMHO subsequent model runs showing tracks out to sea should be viewed suspect until a clearer picture of the nature of the feature and its environment unfolds.

In other areas, at this time, a weak surface low has pushed inland into far eastern Texas//western Louisiana, so no further development there. However, an old frontal boundary remains draped across the northern GOM, just south of the southern states, and could linger and fester a bit, and perhaps tap into a sweet spot or two when conditions there become more favorable.

There is also a weak wave train rolling off of western Africa, and if you haven't yet done so, do check out the main page for Clark's ongoing analysis of the developments there.


Edit to add coordinates of tentative Invest flight plan:

TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.



Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 28 2007 02:04 PM)


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