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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Climate Aficionado]
      #77767 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:18 PM

I see the blog has been mute on 98l for awhile. I know its coughing a bit, with shear and dry air, but if it holds together, this might (again might) be the first storm to hit the CONUS later in the week. It has a lot to go through, but it seems invests lately have survived bigger problems.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Climate Aficionado]
      #77768 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:19 PM

I'll ignore the one liner rule since Stadium Effect is a valid question.
I'll also ignore the reply... just this one time. But I'm watching.

Stadium effect is a near perfectly formed Hurricane. The side of the Eyewall are nearly vertical or slope gently out. Similar to the Goodyear Blimp views of a football game.
Except Recon is not on top of the stadium... they are in the stadium.
Another view would be to look straight down at a doughnut laying on a table.


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #77770 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:21 PM

Looking at the current radar system it looks as though to be the reason for the severe storms that I was talking about in my earlier post (2 posts ago) Looking at the radar, it looks as though it is trying to form into a depression or a storm system, and it now appears to be rotating the way a hurricane would, not a cyclone (however I could be wrong) But it looks to be an overall healthy system that is forming. We will just have to keep a close watch on this storm systym over the next few days.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England

Edited by StrmTrckrMiami (Mon Sep 03 2007 12:39 AM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Raymond]
      #77771 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:22 PM

Quote:

What does "stadium effect" mean?




There is no formal definition in the AMS Glossary but it refers just as it sounds, like a studium... Basically, the eye-wall structure is wider in diameter the higher you go up the column of rotation.

The cause is perhaps too complex to discuss here.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77774 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:31 PM

here's some photos from Hurricane Katrina... If you were directly sitting in the very center... and spun all the way around... it would be like sitting in a closed stadium?

www.aoc.noaa.gov/Photos_Hurr_Katrina.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77775 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:48 PM

Felix is cat 4
000
WTNT31 KNHC 022039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: flahurricane]
      #77778 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:53 PM

I thought this was interesting in the 5pm NHC disccusion.


"THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. "

Can someone remember a recent hurricane strengthening as quickly or with a similar rate of pressure drop?

**I think rapid deepening would be better terminology. Sorry about the wordiness of my original post.

Edited by flahurricane (Sun Sep 02 2007 05:06 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: flahurricane]
      #77779 - Sun Sep 02 2007 05:03 PM

Quote:

I thought this was interesting in the 5pm NHC disccusion.


"THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. "

Can someone remember a recent hurricane strengthening as quickly or with a similar rate of pressure drop?




2 years ago a Hurricane formed from a depression to category 5 in one night! The hurricane not only became a category 5, but became the most intense hurricane on record. Hurricane Wilma formed in October of 2005. That my friend is your answer.
Now Felix is a strong system, I wouldn't be surprised if Durinal Max made this a nice category 5 in the morning.
The area off my coastline has a good chace at forming.. so the CMC shows a 1938 Hurricane scenario.. most likely NOT happening but it is a possibility. Though a strong TS is not out of the realm.

Not quite. It went from a strong tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in 24hr; from a weak hurricane to the most intense storm in a different 24hr period. -Clark

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by Clark (Sun Sep 02 2007 05:40 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: flahurricane]
      #77780 - Sun Sep 02 2007 05:05 PM

Quote:

I thought this was interesting in the 5pm NHC disccusion.


"THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. "

Can someone remember a recent hurricane strengthening as quickly or with a similar rate of pressure drop?




Hurricane Wilma set the gold standard for rapid intensification back in 2005, dropping around 100 mb in 24 hours and over 80 mb in 12 hours. I don't know if we will ever see anything like that again soon, but like Wilma at that time, Felix is a very compact storm and it could become quite intense before bottoming out. The jury is still out on the eventual track, but it looks like either Mexico or Central America is going to take another hard hit in a few days.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #77782 - Sun Sep 02 2007 05:09 PM

i'm in line with thinking of felix as re-dean. it looks poised to do about the same thing to the yucatan. there is much noted uncertainty about it in the western gulf, with the modeling taking it further up. as much trouble as felix is likely to be, the thing emerging off the southeast coast is a much bigger deal.
i guess it will be dubbed 99L inside the next couple of forecast cycles. aside from shear getting it like the pair of invests that got scrubbed last week off the east coast, this one looks like it will handle whatever the upper winds might throw at it, and get expertly blocked by rebounding ridging later this week. as hot as the waters off the east coast are right now, courtesy of that brutal august heatwave, i'd be very concerned that it will develop and go ape. next question is, does it go jeanne on us or go ophelia on us. my big worry is fitow.
japan is about to get licked by a typhoon that got blocked and turned westward at fairly high latitude... and is riding all the way back in for a hit after looking like a slam-dunk recurvature earlier. i guess fitow is pronounced like fido, i dunno. what i do know is that if that weather teleconnection thing works out this time, we've got a backyard brew named gabrielle coming to thwack the southeast coast somewhere from the carolinas down to florida
if something comes up quickly, look for felix's neat wnw solution to evaporate as the ridge erodes and the systems casually interact via their upper features and the impressions they make on the ridge features around them. if homeboy off georgia (who would probably really be homegirl... gabrielle) starts spinning up it will probably do so in a hell of a hurry, with the waters running 29-32c out there. i am not liking what i'm seeing this afternoon; that thing off the southeast is something i thought might show up, but now that i'm seeing it it's a whole different ballgame.
98L is getting easterly shear and coming up slowly. it's slid sw, getting pressed down by low-level riding. not too terribly dry, but SAL is out there to some degree slowing it up. mostly it's the winds below 500 mb blowing along too fast while the lowest level trades are slowed up ahead of the next big wave. if that big wave doesn't overtake it, decently formed 98L should get its convection together and start rolling. it's going to be a close thing... but if it's out there, then another caribbean threat and maybe long-range concern is in place.
africa should keep spitting them out for the next couple of weeks. development emphasis starts to shift west as september gets late.
HF 2109z02september
*sorry to flahurricane for accidentally killing your post*


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: HanKFranK]
      #77784 - Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM

As HF alluded to, it's all a question of shear with the feature off of Georgia. If it doesn't get attacked by it and/or the dry, descending air that comes with it, that's our next region of concern as all of the other ingredients in place look quite favorable for development. Until the steering currents become better defined, it's all speculation on an eventual track.

98L is status quo but still there as it heads west. NHC didn't run the 12Z late or 18Z early models on it today, so they may not be thinking much of it any longer, but it's got a shot to do something as it passes 50W. It was at 14N yesterday, but the SW motion HF also alluded to now has it closer to 11N; that makes a significant difference for down the road *if* something were to come of it. We'll see.

Felix? It's approaching the warm core oceanic eddy mentioned in the 5p NHC discussion and as I hinted at last night. The most recent microwave imager pass I have -- from about 2p ET -- suggests a well-defined inner core without significant outer banding or signs of an outer eyewall trying to form. Granted, the resolution of that imager is not great, but it still does not give any hints at any oncoming eyewall cycle. It will be very, very intriguing to see what recon finds this evening in terms of intensity. Honduras looks to take a sideswipe from this one while Belize or the southern Quintana Roo area of the Yucatan looks to take the full brunt of a landfall in 3ish days.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: HanKFranK]
      #77785 - Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM

I thought the most interesting part of the NHC Discussion is when they said, "THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS."

You see the low forecast to "spawn" this trough on water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Alaska.

EDIT:

From the WFO Lake Charles, LA AFD:

"TOWARDS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROF WILL SWING SE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...AND HELP LIFT THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD OUT OF TX.
STILL VERY UNCLEAR HOW THIS MAY PLAY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF FELIX...IF
IT EVEN EMERGES INTO THE S GULF. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL."

Edited by weatherguy08 (Sun Sep 02 2007 05:50 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: MikeC]
      #77787 - Sun Sep 02 2007 06:42 PM

Felix continues to rapidly strengthen as new Raw Dorvak T# is now 6.9 which would be 921mb and 161mph.. Of course we need the Hurricane Hunters to prove that.. in fact, IF it's still undergoing rapid development, I expect a greater number by 8 p.m. This is some storm, whoever gets it, will be catestrophic!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: allan]
      #77788 - Sun Sep 02 2007 07:06 PM Attachment (364 downloads)

Made a graphic displaying the low pressure over the northwestern Pacific that may develop a trough which would break down the ridge keeping Felix to the south. The image is based on the 02/2100z GOES West Full Disk and the HPC Surface Analysis from 02/1800z.

P.S. The 24, 48, 72, and 96 indicate the forecast times.

Edited by weatherguy08 (Sun Sep 02 2007 07:06 PM)


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: weatherguy08]
      #77790 - Sun Sep 02 2007 07:18 PM

The area of interest off of the southeast coast is it going strong or has it weakened and will it be coming under high shear soon? Is the possibility still there for a TC to form or has the door for that closed?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: allan]
      #77791 - Sun Sep 02 2007 07:21 PM

Based on the very latest HD recon data, pressure is down to around 940 mb with flight-level winds (136 gusting to 147 kts) supporting borderline cat 5 intensity. The onboard SFMR actually indicates even stronger winds at the surface, but I'm not sure what NHC will make of that data. There should be a vortex message coming shortly.

Edit: Still no vortex message yet, but a dropsonde in the eye recorded 936 mb.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Sep 02 2007 07:32 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #77792 - Sun Sep 02 2007 07:23 PM

so much for worrying on upwelling from Dean... Felix seems to have really found his groove there and would love to know how strong he really is...

he also seems to be moving more wnw than earlier and wondering on that as he is still pretty far east and wondering if we need to look at the top half of the cone suddenly not the bottom half

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: LoisCane]
      #77793 - Sun Sep 02 2007 07:57 PM

163 knots at the surface level according to the SFMR!?


Wow. This is quite the spectacle.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: LoisCane]
      #77794 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:02 PM Attachment (281 downloads)

Frankly, im not surprised that Felix is Cat. 4... recalling dean-there was a warm eddy south of hispanola that dean clipped-Felix passed very near/OVER this eddy (I have an image of the Aug. 16 carib sea water map in the attachment-If anyone can show me a link to the most recent images so i can bookmark the page, it would be greatly appreciated!)

If the latest recon (Extreme turbulence in NE eyewall, max sur. wind 163kt!-not sure that this is completely about this though)/dropsonde info is indeed correct-and Felix is continuing to strengthen, I would think we could have yet another Cat V monster (if an ERC does not take place) later tonight

Update-Wunderground has felix as 145kt monster... Officially Cat 5!

And from the NHC Discussion:

"BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX."

I've never heard of a mission being aborted-is this the first time? I believe in Wilma they climbed higher to lessen turbulence-but was it aborted?

The CDO is extremely symmetrical when viewed on satellite, IMO, Dvorak shows it best.

Finally, I a mistake from the E. Pac. TWO:

"THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL IS LOCATED ABOUT
925 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED."

Gil=remnant low forecast to dissipate-lol.

Edited by weather999 (Sun Sep 02 2007 08:07 PM)


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: LoisCane]
      #77795 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:03 PM

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.


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